How does everyone feel about the economy? They say it's getting better

1. 79

   Uninvited Writerposted 14 years ago

   I really think it is improving. I have a locked in pension that lost over $10,000 in the past 4 years. Now it has started going up again and I have earned back more than $5,000 of it. I don't know much about investing so it's possible this is just a fluke and has nothing to do with the economy and it will lose money again.

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      ledefensetechposted 14 years agoin reply to this

      Wait until tomorrow.  We're headed back down.  The same thing happened during the Depression.  The crash happened in '29, a slight recovery in '30, then back down due to Hoover's policies until '32.  Then things went up and down as FDR screwed things up even more.  Don't believe me?  Compare 1932 and 1937.  Things were worse in 1937 after four years of New Deal planning.  We didn't really recover from the Depression until after World War II.
      
      The bounce after a collapse generally makes up about 50% of the value of what you lost before it goes back down.  We're at about that place right now.  Normally I'd say get your money out now, but by next year it's going to be so much worthless paper, it's not really worth the bother.

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         livewithrichardposted 14 years agoin reply to this

         If everything is so dire, why even bother going to nursing school or try to become a PA?  The way you make it sound, everyone should sell off everything they can and then stockpile survival gear because we'll all be living in the woods soon.
         
         You obviously have no confidence in American perseverance.  It does no good to spread doom and gloom in an effort to deny that hope exists.
         
         Hope does exist.  The housing market has made gains for the past 4 months and last month was the largest percentage jump in 10 YEARS. 
         
         Just like the changes we had to make after 9/11, we have to make the changes in our lifestyle now.  We have to adjust our way of thinking, our way of spending, our way of saving.  I said adjust, not give up!

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            Mishaposted 14 years agoin reply to this

            That's the most likely outcome, despite of all your rhetoric.

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            blue dogposted 14 years agoin reply to this

            actually,  i have been selling things off, prepping the garden beds, stockpiling the survival gear, and spending quite a bit of time in the woods over the course of the last two years.  as well as keeping my guns sighted in.
            
            my hope is that you are not basing your hope on the housing market gains of the last four months.

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               livewithrichardposted 14 years agoin reply to this

               Where else would you spend your time? You are, after all, a nature photographer.
               
               Like I posted earlier, my hope is based on my own experience in my city, Chicago.  Not just home sales but all construction in general. 
               
               I'm a Permit Consultant, I procure permits for those that are building, remodeling, planning, and even making movies.  My barometer is based on the amount of work I'm receiveing and it has doubled since March of this year.
               
               I never said things were going back to normal, I said we must expect the same kinds of changes in lifestyle as the changes we made in other areas after 9/11.
               
               Just like Uninvited Writer said, the sky is not falling...
               
               If people are not willing to make the changes or sacrifices needed, or are waiting on those manufacturing jobs to come back, then yes, it will probably be a very long wait.
               
               If you're going to wait for the economy to fix its self and spend your entire day on these forums and not pursuing more fiscal goals then yes, it will probably be a very long wait.
               
               If you're waiting on Uncle Sam to come take care of you, then it's going to be a verrrrrrry long wait.
               
               I say in my profile that "To achieve things you have never done, you must be willing to do things you have never done before." Now if that sounds as rhetoric, as Misha calls it, and you feel the need to attack me for trying to spread a little hope instead of all this doom and gloom, then I feel real sorry for you.
               
               I'm sorry people are struggling, but once they get off their asses and start making things happen, instead of waiting for things to happen, then the struggle will lighten.

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                  blue dogposted 14 years agoin reply to this

                  it's amazing how few little words it takes to ruffle feathers on this site.  it's good that the rosy, feel good has hit chicago.  it would make perfect sense, seeing where the new president is from.
                  
                  however, out in the real world, it's not quite so rosy, especially if one refuses to wear rose colored glasses.  i'm not quite sure why you would imply that i'm waiting on uncle sam to take care of me, as anyone who knows me personally knows with no uncertainty that i know exactly who uncle sam is taking care of.
                  
                  it's rather amusing to see you suggest that i spend my entire day on these forums.  basic math, in which one takes the number of posts divided by time on hp would show just how asinine that comment is.  perhaps you should spend more time writing your informative hubs and a bit less time worrying about my personal life. 
                  
                  if you’re implying that i’m sitting around on my ass, then i happily invite you to come hang out with me here in the texas hill country, for just three hours.  if you did that, i’m certain of two things: 1) you’d see how i make “things happen” and 2) you’d be on the next plane back to chicago, sans the rose colored glasses.  if that was not your implication, then you may disregard this paragraph.
                  
                  i apologize for not making it to the part of your profile that talks about achievement.  you lost me at "... my quest for the accumulation of the almighty greenback..."

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                     livewithrichardposted 14 years agoin reply to this

                     I'm sorry Blue Dog, that wasn't directed at you. Did not mean to imply anything about you personally and meant no offence. (just the first sentence was for you)
                     
                     It's funny that you would think that what's going on here is because the President once lived here.  Fact is, it's going on all over.  I do business in Miami, NY,and LA and its the same there too and I don't think it has anything to do with the rose colored glasses.
                     
                     The Heart of America may be in rural USA but the gears of industry are in and around our cities.
                     
                     By the way, thanks for the invitation even though it was made out of anger.  I'm sure you do very interesting work.  I seen some of the pictures you take, good stuff.

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                        blue dogposted 14 years agoin reply to this

                        actually, no anger intended. sometimes the passion and conviction can be a bit heavy.
                        
                        the reference about chicago-obama was because we experienced a similar rush here in texas after bush took office.
                        
                        and i meant what i said about your informative articles.  they are that.

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                           livewithrichardposted 14 years agoin reply to this

                           Thanks, I know what you mean about passion and conviction.  I served in the military, lived all over this country, from the most rural parts of the Mojave Desert to the congested city of Chicago.  Lived in El Passo and San Antonio for a short time too.
                           
                           Sometimes my words come off a bit harsh but I try to speak only from experience and not conjecture. 
                           
                           I'm hoping this isn't just a rush, like you had in TX, and I really don't think it is, at least in this industry.

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            ledefensetechposted 14 years agoin reply to this

            Why bother?  Duh.  If I don't look out for myself and my family, nobody else will.  It's up to me to forge ahead and do something.  Besides it's not like we haven't seen this type of thing before, just look up the history of panics in the 19th and early 20th centuries.  What we didn't see during those panics was decade long or multi-decade depressions like we did in the 1930's in the US and 1990's in Japan.
            
            Hope?  Try ignorance of economic reality.  Housing gains?  You're out of your mind.  Banks are bulldozing entire subdivisions because they can't afford to keep those toxic liabilities on their books anymore. All I've seen the markets doing is moving money from column A to column B.  There has been no real growth and certainly no expansion of job markets.  What you're seeing is the effect of the bogus stimulus legislation, which we haven't even paid for yet.  Just give it time. 
            
            Until we wrest control of the economy away from the idiot politicians we won't see a recovery any time soon.

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               livewithrichardposted 14 years agoin reply to this

               You say I'm out of my mind.  Show me your number to support that and don't spew what you are hearing on conservative talk radio.  Numbers. 
               
               There were over 5 million units sold in July alone, a 5% gain over June's numbers.  Sure, roughly 31% were from the sales of forclosures and short sales but that still means PEOPLE ARE BUYING! BANKS WERE NOT BUYING THESE PROPERTIES.
               
               This is good news for the consumer... sux for the banks but screw them our tax dollars should have never gone to bail them out in the first place. 
               
               Do you live in a city? If so, try looking up instead of down and see all the cranes and construction going on all over the place.  I've been to NY, Miami, LA as well as here in Chicago, just in the past month and its the same everywhere. 
               
               Growth and expansion is a whole nother subject.  Things are leveling out, and hopefully allow some confidence back into the markets.
               
               Maybe it is the effects of the stimulus, but that's exactly what it was meant to do.  I see no slow down, I have seen no slow down in my industry since this recession began.

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                  ledefensetechposted 14 years agoin reply to this

                  Numbers?  Do you mean lies, damn lies and statistics.  You should know that you can make the numbers sound like whatever you want.  Still, time will tell which of us is right.  Even hear the term dead cat bounce.  Look at the stock market after the 29 crash.  You find that it made up about 50% of what it lost during the crash then it crashed again.  People then, like today, thought the bear market was over.  Then they lost their shirts. 
                  
                  http://dailyreckoning.com/the-calm-befo … ial-storm/
                  http://dailyreckoning.com/no-recovery-not-now-not-ever/
                  http://dailyreckoning.com/the-world-fin … lles-heel/
                  
                  On that last link this paragraph specifically, note it was written on the 21st of August:
                  
                  
                  
                  You also might take the words of this article to heart:  http://dailyreckoning.com/analysis-by-anecdote/
                  You can only understand so much by looking at numbers, if you really want to know what's going on you have to get out and look around.  All the cranes you are seeing is the result of the stimulus.  All they did with that was transplant future consumption to today.
                  
                  Look at the auto industry.  They have gains today, sure, but average ownership of cars is about seven years.  They've just killed demand for the next seven years in this country with the cash for clunkers program.  If they were smart, car companies would be figuring out how to sell to the Chinese, not selling more cars to Americans who have too much debt.  We just peed all that money away so Papa Obama could count on the support of the UAW next election.  Wait and see.
                  
                  So no, you'll get no numbers from me, they're too easily manipulated.  Besides, like I said, time will tell which of us is correct.

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2. 56

   wrenfrost56posted 14 years ago

   Unfortunetly not, unemployment is still high and set to rise further. Most banks have changed there tac's but that's to cover there own back and personally I doubt it will be of any help to there customers!

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3. 74

   livewithrichardposted 14 years ago

   I guess it really depends on where you live and the industry you are in.  My industry is booming in my city.  And a lot of people in this idnustry are climbing back.  However, there are still many industries here that are still struggling to stay above water.

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4. 72

   relacheposted 14 years ago

   If you think the economy is getting better, you need to read this lecture from February 13, 2009 by Dimitri Orlov.  The idea of "things going back to normal" needs to be let go of, and the idea that things are changing permanently is much more realistic.

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      Bard of Elyposted 14 years agoin reply to this

      I agree with Relache!

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         Madame Xposted 14 years agoin reply to this

         I do too.
         
         I work at the farmers markets and it can be a barometer of sorts regarding the economy. When people are scared and hurting, they buy only what they need - fruits and veggies - and when they feel safe, i.e. have a little bit extra they feel is ok to spend, they "shop", and look around at stuff that they might not really need but think might be fun to try. Very few seem to be spending anything extra right now.
         
         Just an observation.

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5. 62

   Mishaposted 14 years ago

   I have different sources, but I completely agree to Relache on this.

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      whiteorchidsposted 14 years agoin reply to this

      I also agree with Relache on this even more now since I read the lecture. It appears we are going in the same direction as the Rise and Fall of the Roman Empire.

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         Uninvited Writerposted 14 years agoin reply to this

         I remember talk like that in the 70s when the economy was in trouble.

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   blue dogposted 14 years ago

   the economy is not improving for lower income and middle class.  there is still record unemployment left from the bush years, there is still record foreclosure, gas prices will continue to rise, most - let's exclude upper class here - incomes have not kept pace with the increased cost of living, and still little has been said about the looming credit card debacle.
   
   while america continues its love affair with reality tv, they fail to sit up and take notice.  sadly, our country will continue its downward spiral.  americans in general are too complacent to care, or do anything about it.  yes, it's sad and that's the real reality.

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7. 78

   bgpappaposted 14 years ago

   There are signs that the freefall has stopped.  The market is improving and consumer confidence has stopped falling.  So there are signs.
   
   But right now this doesn't help individual average Americans.  The credit market is still pretty dry and the unemployment rate is still going down though not at such a high pace.  A few months from now there will be better actual proof of the improving economy, when the employment rate starts shrinking.

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   americhickposted 14 years ago

   i own a small business and we are hurting right now. everyone is bargain hunting, price shopping and shopping the internet for the best deal.  the small retailer, like me, is getting squeezed.  my 401k has lost thousands and thousands, and our country is trillions of dollars in debt.  so, for me, for now, the enonomy is not improving. hopefully that will change.

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9. 79

   Uninvited Writerposted 14 years ago

   Unfortunately, it's locked in until I'm 55.

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    galleryofgraceposted 14 years ago

    Oh,it's getting better all right! Everybody has bigger paychecks -Thanks to Obama- but just wait until January when we have  to start selling pencils on  street corners to pay the  taxes. Many of us will not enough taxes taken out to cover it!
    Things always seem to get better before they fall!

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11. 63

    lakeerieartistsposted 14 years ago

    I agree with Relache, too.  The economy is not going back to "normal".  It is changing instead.  Our economy will look different as we go forward.  Companies are still cutting back and closing due to bad luck or bad decisions made before last fall.  I think that consumers are just taking the new status more in stride than they did when everything came to a boil a year ago.

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12. 79

    Uninvited Writerposted 14 years ago

    I agree that it is changing too but I don't believe the sky is falling...

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       lakeerieartistsposted 14 years agoin reply to this

       I would agree with you, too.  I don't think it is falling, but lots of people are still struggling. 
       
       Just like anything else it takes time for people to change, especially if it takes education to do it.  I am in Cleveland, Ohio and we are experiencing some recovery in some industrial fields and in others businesses are still failing. 
       
       People don't always know how to break the patterns that they have lived their entire lives.
       
       I think that many of the changes that we see emerging from this crisis will be permananent, and the entire country will have to think differently about how people buy, and how money is made.  Until that happens, the various governments will not get the tax base they need to rehire government workers including police and fire fighters.

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13. 0

    Crazdwriterposted 14 years ago

    If the economy was getting better I would have a teaching job by now. But nope no job so no it's not getting better I'm afraid.

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14. 58

    flread45posted 14 years ago

    I agree with blue dog.In my part of the country people are loosing their homes all over the place.
    Unemployment in my county is 13%.

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    ralwusposted 14 years ago

    When I see the many fire depts. ordering new parts and supplies and the police depts. doing same as well as bringing back unemployed cops and our swimming pools open longer I will believe.

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    Dale Nelsonposted 14 years ago

    It seems that every time the economy goes on a downhill something great is invented.Were just fortunate not to have spawned a world war as a result of the recession.In our lands we have a property bubble burst every ten years and then the interest rates go thru the roof to 25 % sometimes and then new building starts again and the raets drop back to 10% and then employment and trade picks up.
    
    Interest dropped to its lowest at 10.5% in 4 years and building has started and the mining stocks are recovering.So I'd tend to think the worst is behind us and am ready for the next best thing.
    
    Saw a plastic handle the other day that slots onto the plug pins of a plug before you put it in a wall socket.Its so that you can pull out the plug easily.Its fantastic.wish I thought of that.

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    americhickposted 14 years ago

    Who are 'they' and how is it getting better?  I have a small business (retail shop) and August is the worst month that I've had this year.

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    sumosalesmanposted 14 years ago

    It's been pretty horrible.  I was able to breeze my way into pretty much any job I wanted but the economy realizes it's been 15% built on jello and the small business owners who control the cash flow for investing in labor are either out of business or soloing.
    
    As for doing things online, I still think there's amazing opportunity if you can just keep on top of the latest tactics and apps to replicate your content and cut out the time-consuming nonsense you have to deal with with little or no automation.

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