Do you believe that Donald Trump will win a second term as president? Why? Why not? If not, who do you believe will win the presidency?
Donald Trump can win another term if the Democrats are timid in pursuit of their values and policy positions, watering down a potent tonic into a meaningless swill. The man should be easy to defeat and if the Dems lose it will be their own fault.
Therein lies the danger.
If the current political trends continue and we continue to experience our current strong economy, Trump will end up winning a second term.
The only person who may have a shot at beating him, would be Biden...Just because Biden will sit better with the old school Democrats and will get the remaining blue vote just because he is democrat and not Trump.
I think the big deciding factor for this election will come from the independent voters...and which Democrat candidate actually wins the Blue nomination...And the Independent vote is going to rely heavily on the state of the economy...
My opinion only
I think the great divide may allow another Trump presidency. I think the left has gone too far left for the comfort of most Americans. If they pursue that far left agenda in a national election with a tarnished Biden star they will lose.
I think that is a fair assessment.
The primary issue will be the economy, jobs, wages.
And right now, we are still too far away to know how the economy will effect the election, right now doesn't matter, its what is going on a year from now that will be relevant to the election.
Secondary is going to be how truly different the positions of the parties/candidates appear to be... consider the Romney - Obama election, there was not perceived to be a major difference between the candidates, the biggest difference was on the issue of abortion.
Romney had some points on the China trade imbalance but that is not a popular or well understood campaign topic. Nor were any of his other positions, he just wasn't able to separate himself from Obama very well, nor was he able to stick the dreadful economy on Obama, that was successfully pushed onto Bush by the Obama campaign.
And then there are third tier issues, like the border, terrorism, political made events like the Cavanaugh hearings or Impeachment efforts that can sway a good chunk of voters if they become major issues near to the election.
I think Trump voters hope the primary issue will be the economy, and that the economy remains strong. Trump does a nice job of framing the conversation around the issues he wants to talk about, so it'll be hard for any other candidate to dictate the focal points.
With many of his base only seeing the very liberal wing of the Democratic party and stereotyping those views to the entirety of the party, as viewed above, the far-right won't be who we try to appeal to.
Pointing out how far to the right the GOP has gone by the recent abortion laws in Georgia and Alabama should swing many women voters to the left. Rollbacks of protections for gay marriage and the LGBT community has lost Trump those votes. And it's not like he's changed the playbook since the disastrous midterm elections of 2018. The government is still in chaos and turnover remains high, even after Bolton gets us into a wag-the-dog war with Iran.
And Trump's refusal to cooperate with Congressional subpoenas, even after Mueller recommended Congress take up further inquiry in his report (regardless of how many times Trump and Barr deny that that was written in there), will cause anyone who believes in co-equal branches of government or the rule of law to vote for whoever the Democrats nominate. Unlike his base, re-electing Individual-1 from a felony conviction isn't something to be proud of for most Americans. Any honest human being will do at this point for many of us.
And many of us see Trump as a huge security risk to the nation. Overruling experts to give his kids security clearances, denying Russian election interference and even defending the Russians over Americans. George Conway really described it best and why voters should be very concerned about Trump:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/george-conwa … 26829.html
I hate to tell you, but people vote based on what is going on with their wallets.
I would say 75% or more of the country could care less about the BS going on in DC with the investigations and subpoenas.
If people did care, CNN would have higher ratings than the HSN (Home Shopping Network), but it doesn't, and that's because the overwhelming majority tune out that noise.
This election will be decided on the economy whether you, or I, or anyone else thinks so or not.
If I'm on the Trump campaign, I push my record on the economy and talk about nothing else. I just say, "look, if you want to keep the economy roaring along, re-elect me. If you want the economy to tank or go sideways, elect the other person." That's all I talk about.
As much as I disagree with Ken, he's right that people vote with their wallets, so the vote will tell whether people are truly getting something from this economy or it's just the rich people.
If I'm the Democratic candidate, I push the idea that Trump is a liar and that his economic numbers are a lie too and then go to all the places in the country that aren't doing well so that can be televised every day. I also make a bid deal about the Supreme Court and make sure everyone understands that Roe v. Wade will get overturned if Trump is re-elected. Since most people support choice and want abortion to be legal, it's a good issue to push.
If Dems push their stance on immigration too much, they'll lose. If they let Trump win the economic debate, they lose. If Trump doesn't focus on what's going well and gets distracted with everything else, he'll probably lose.
Pretty good summation, but have to disagree that most people want abortion to remain legal. As the issues re abortion have become clearer to people thanks to technology and a better understanding of the 1973 judges' motivations and intentions, including that they did not foresee the ruling being used to open government subsidized abortion clinics and/or late term abortions on demand, and as people become more dismissive of the media thanks to their own attitudes and behaviors, more and more people are less desirous of seeing this country's legal system support abortion as it has.
With that kind of misinformation, I can see why people would be against abortion.
Government subsidizes women's health, of which abortion is a very, very small portion. Very few of the total number of abortions are late term. That said, I think most people support restrictions on late term abortions unless the mother's health is at risk.
That said, abortion needs to remain legal otherwise poor women go to the back alleys and everyone else goes to Canada. Most people are for legal abortion.
If that were the case, every Republican running for office would be elected because every one of them always runs on cutting taxes.
Now, many of us see what that tax cut, without also cutting spending, does to the government. We've watched the national debt explode. We watched Kansas go bankrupt.
We can also do the math to see that the majority of the benefits of this tax cut went to the most wealthy in the country. There was no solution to the wealth inequality that exists in this country. Trump's policies benefit people like Trump, not the middle class.
It's also going to be very easy to show the charts that average jobs gained is actually down from Obama's last term and unemployment has just continued on the same downward trend that was started under Obama.
I would also note how last December was a trainwreck for the stock market. Why? Someone shut down the government, when everyone knew he couldn't win that fight, with no idea of what the consequences would be when he did it. This month will be another stock market disaster because he thinks a trade war with China, one that is devastating the agriculture industry, is a good thing. Not sure if you track your retirement, but I'm meticulous about it. My average quarterly gain in Obama's last term was 2.24% while only 2.18% under Trump.
Don't go overcomplicating it.
First there is a difference between National and local/state politics.
The Presidency almost always goes the way of the economy... good economy means a real good chance at re-election.
And there was a 9 month smear campaign against Trump last time, the same political garbage as before... only now, people have seen he can actually be the President, and the economy improved, and WWIII didn't happen, and that's all that is going to matter to the majority of voters.
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