UK Government to Make Difficult Decisions
• The Covid Lockdown in England ended on 17th May; the other UK nations have taken similar steps.
• The Final phase of the UK Government’s ‘Road Map’ out of lockdown and back to normal life is the ending of ‘Social Distancing’ and Mandatory Masks; which was due to take place on the 21st June.
Although new cases are at a low base, with covid hospitalisations below 1,000 and the average daily covid deaths in single digits; with the Indian variant (now known as the Delta variant, and which is 40% more infectious than the Kent (UK) variant) being the dominant variant in 8 hot spots across Britain (mainly parts of Northern England, and parts of London), in recent weeks there’s been an exponential increase of new cases (increasing by 70% per week).
However, the people predominantly being affected are those in their 20’s, and old children e.g. those who have not yet been vaccinated; and therefore hospitalisations and deaths have not increased.
In the UK, so far 94% of the adult population over the age of 30 have now been vaccinated (97% over the age of 50); and currently, as from this week, all those between the ages of 25 & 29 are being vaccinated.
Also, the UK’s Medical Regulators have approved vaccination for all children from the age of 12.
In the light of the above, the scientific advisors to the UK Government are split:-
• About half are advocating postponing the lifting of ‘Social Distancing’ and Mask wearing for two weeks; to allow more people to be vaccinated before the restrictions are lifted.
• While the other half of the Government’s scientific advisors take a more pragmatic view, and feel that given that most vulnerable people are now vaccinated, and that hospitalisations and deaths are not rising; that the restrictions should be lifted, as scheduled, on the 21st June.
• Opinion of the General Public is also split on the issue e.g. 43% of the General Pubic want the Government to postpone the lifting of the final covid restrictions for two weeks, to allow more time for more people to be vaccinated.
• However, the hospitality industry is opposed to any further delays, as they (especially nightclubs) can’t commercially operate on reduced capacity that the restrictions impose; with some nightclubs, pubs (bars) and restaurants etc. are on the verge of financial collapse. So the Hospitality Industry is lobbying the Government to stick to its original schedule.
In light of the above; the UK Government is due to make a definitive decision on Monday 14th June on to whether to stick to the original date of the 21st June to end covid restriction; or to delay the ending of the restrictions for two weeks, to allow more people to be vaccinated before the restrictions are ended.
As regards vaccinating children: The UK scientific advisors to the Government have no strong opinion either way; and are leaving it to the UK to make a political decision; at this point (while the issue is being debated) the UK Government has no strong opinion, but if the Government does decide to vaccinate children, that vaccination rollout is likely to be in July/August.
So on both issues, we’ll have to wait and see what the UK Government decides.
It's a national cross road. God help the Queen.
So sad to see the UK is having a new strain. I trust the right decisions will be made, and the new strain will be met and curbed quickly. I have been noting here in the USA little being reported about the new UK strain. It would seem our Government would be making decisions on how to cut down spread here. However, it would seem they are ignoring it, and downplaying the problems it could cause. At best I wish our Government would do some ads and let our citizens know the only way to stop this virus is to get the vaccine So many here just are not aware of the problems of mutations until we build a huge herd.
Prayers coming your way...
Thanks Sharlee; I think good communication is key, the UK Government do give regular public briefings on TV at prime time (which helps a lot). Following this week’s announcement that the NHS would start vaccinating 20 to 29 year olds over 1 million people in that age group signed up for their vaccination in the first 24 hours of the announcement; which is a new record high; so that gives encouragement that in the UK the youngsters are as keen to get vaccinated as the older generations.
Are you ready for the next Pandemic to begin?
The first human case of H10N3 bird flu virus has been 'found' in a village in China, here we go again.
I don't think we've got much to worry about at this time as although it is not unheard of that people working with poultry occasionally get infected there are no indications that the virus is easily transmissible among humans, with no confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission.
Although in the event that bird flu did become more transmissible between humans, and became infectious enough to cause a pandemic then yes the UK is ready e.g. we now have a well established infrastructure for fighting covid, which can be adapted to fight any similar pandemic.
It sounds as if the UK jumped on the new strain quickly. This is good news. Here, we are being told the vaccine "should" help if the new strain becomes a problem. Little is being reported on the new strian.
The Clevedon Cobra
Clevedon is a seaside town, in Somerset, England, just 18 miles from where we live.
Now that the covid lockdown in the UK has been lifted, we took a day trip to Clevedon, specifically to see Clevedon pier, which opened in 1869; and also to see and video other iconic sites in Clevedon including the Victorian bandstand and drinking fountain. And for lunch we visited one of the sea front cafes that were open and treated ourselves to a cream tea (scones with jam and cream).
While viewing the Victorian bandstand we also came across ‘The Clevedon Cobra’ expressing the ‘wartime spirit’ that’s engrained into the British psyche and brings us together in times of national crisis. The Cobra made from decorated pebbles and laid-out around the bandstand.
The plague, picture below, speaks for itself.
Below: The Cobra (made from decorated pebbles) snaking around the base of the Victorian bandstand.
Below: The Victorian Pier in Clevedon.
The UK Government’s Health Minister, the elected politician who drafted up the covid restrictions regulations e.g. social distancing rules, resigned this weekend for breaching his own rules on ‘social distancing’ e.g. he was caught on CCTV camera intimately kissing his personal Aide in his own office; which was a breach of his own social distancing rules that made it an offence for there to be gatherings of more than one person in enclosed spaces!
His personal Aide to the NHS also resigned her post following the scandal.
Matt Hancock affair video kissing Gina Coladangelo in his office WORLD EXCLUSIVE: https://youtu.be/wh8KscD256c
To be fair, neither knew the camera was there; the camera has since been removed! Although there’s been no mention of what his wife thinks about the whole affair?
I hope the Ex-Health Ministers pair of balls still tingling, and his girl's V freshly wet? "Junny Junny? "Papa? "Stealing sugar? No Sir." If the Minister and his wife got a divorce, happy wedding with his lover.
Queen awards George Cross to ‘courageous and dedicated’ NHS:-
https://news.sky.com/story/queen-gives- … y-12348974
31st July 2021: 89% now vaccinated in the UK, the highest in the world; even higher than in Israel.
The link between infection rates and hospitalisations has been broken, thanks to the high level of vaccination in the UK, hence high infection rates are not equating to high levels of hospitalisations and deaths; and over 98% of those ending up in hospital are those not vaccinated (predominantly the young between the ages of 16 and 24) . It's now been almost two weeks since the 19th July when all legal requirements to social distancing and mask wearing were abolished, allowing nightclubs to finally open again, after being closed for over 16 months: So life in the UK is returning to normal, post pandemic.
Arthur, certainly very good news.
I read that infection rates are dropping in the UK. So may be the vaccination program does its trick.
Is there any information/comparison to the USA? The CDC leaked some preliminary information that vaccination does not really stop the Delta variant. It appears that the Delta variant conquers also vaccinated people. Vaccinated people then get only mild symptoms or are unsymptomatic.
This seems to be kind of problematic if vaccinated people are no more tested and possibly run around unnoticed as camouflaged superspreaders. And then it is survival of the fittest of those not vaccinated yet.
Meanwhile in Germany the Delta variant is at 90% plus of new infections. But active case count is fairly low (some 5% of UK in adjusted terms). Infection rate is rising slowly. Daily fatalities are still double digit (20..50) but nothing in comparison to active cases one year ago. Covid hospitalization is low to neglectable even with R-factor above 1.
I think currently Germany is no good petri dish to identify the implications of the new variant. Numbers are currently too low and while there is growth of cases, there is no real exponentional behaviour detected. Can be possibly attributed to the very high vaccination rate of those above 60 and unsymptomatic simply are never tested and counted. Government is adjusting its Covid reaction plans and now monitors the hospitalization rate and only to a minor extent the new case count.
When i had my second shot in the vaccination center, that was like a supermarket. You could choose the vaccine. Almost like an old style market. They had for "sale": BioNTech, Astrazeneca, Johnson&Johnson, Moderna. Looks like by now there is plenty of vaccines available.
Yes I’ve heard American’s after reading what the CDC says, claiming that the vaccines offer little protection against the Delta variant; I think it may be a question of the CDC badly wording what they’ve said, giving a wrong impression!
The Delta variant is far more infectious than any other variant; and people who are fully vaccinated can catch and pass on the infection; but that’s always been the case anyway e.g. the vaccines are not designed to stop you from getting infected, they are designed to keep you out of hospital and stop you from dying.
The latest data on the UK’s Government website states that with 1 dose of the vaccine you are at least 60% less likely to catch covid and pass it on; and with 2 doses of the vaccine you are over 85% less likely to catch covid and pass it on.
Currently the UK R value is 1.1 to 1.4, and yep, in the UK almost all new infections is the Delta variant (it is the dominant variant) but fortunately, with the vast majority of the adult population vaccinated (about 89%) the infections are not translating into hospitalisations and deaths like it did in the past; just a 10th of what it used to be.
In the UK, with the successful rollout of the NHS covid app last September, the asymptomatic are detected and tested just as much as anyone else; in fact the app has been too successful in that in the current wave it’s pinging too many people to isolate, when because they’ve been double jabbed a simple covid test would suffice instead. The UK Government is gradually changing the rules so that more people who are pinged by the app can just take a test rather than isolate.
COVID-19: Businesses call for an end to the 'pingdemic' https://youtu.be/D15jz0Dtyvo
The only real difference I think there is between the USA and UK is that 89% of adult are vaccinated in the UK, and less that 50% in the USA e.g. the USA has a long way to go yet to reach any kind of herd immunity.
The comparison is significant. I think the. Delta variant is a stuqborn virus.
Yep, the Delta variant is certainly very stubborn.
Thanks. Here in Nigeria, the dGarmma variant is infecting, though on a less scale 5% Many have not kindlyx taken to the covid19 vacine. The miltating factors are twofold. Politics and fear. The politician disturb the mind of the people that the vaccine exposed you to be 'read' which is factoring the fear.
Yeah, politics and fear, and misinformation are dangerous factors.
Arthur, does the 89% of adults mean that no juveniles are vaccinated?
Because https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations lists the UK at 69%, just slightly ahead of f.e. Spain. Those are probably figures that respresent the total population.
The high number of cases in the UK despite vaccination probably results from mostly joung and active parts of the population, same as in other countries with significant vaccine protection of the elderly and vulnerable.
Because G. has low case counts from mostly young people, the vaccination focus is now put on the age group from 12 to 18. In my state by this weekend some 30% got at least 1 shot.
While there are no real travel restrictions for vacation, from today Aug. 01 on all returning from abroad need testing, regardless of vaccination status.
All western neighbours of G. currently have 5 to 20 fold relative 7 day case counts. And there is way too much logistic traffic (trucks, lorries, ...) going from north to south, from east to west straight through G. This is a minefield for infection and the only way (not to stop) but to contain the virus is vaccination.
Yes you are right; no juveniles under the age of 18 have been vaccinated in the UK, and the figure you quote is for the entire UK population (adults and children).
The UK Government have had authority from the ‘Independent Regulatory’ Authority to vaccinate children from the age of 12 to 17 for some time now; but so far (although it’s been debated in Parliament) the Government has shied-away from vaccinating children on ethical grounds! Although if later in the year it is deemed essential, the UK Government does have the Authority to vaccinate children from the age of 12.
Yep, you are right, the high number of cases in the UK is predominately the young, from the age of 16 to 24 e.g. the age group in the UK with the highest level of vaccine hesitancy.
In the UK international travel restrictions is currently based on a ‘traffic light’ system e.g. green, amber and red countries. Free travel with no restrictions from green countries e.g. a handful of countries where the infection rate is low. 10 day quarantine, unless double jabbed in which case just a couple of negative tests, for ‘amber list’ countries e.g. moderate levels of infection rates. And domestic travel to and from countries on the red list (high infection rates) is banned. The one exception being France, which is on the UK’s Government Amber list, but has been singled out for all travellers returning from France to isolate for 10 days regardless to whether they’ve been double jabbed or not; the French Government is quite rightly accusing the British Government of being discriminatory against France for political reason.
Although the UK Government hasn’t yet decided to vaccinate anyone under the age of 18, they have made arrangements to give everyone over the age of 50 a booster jab (along with the flu jab) from September.
Unlike the USA and most European Countries the UK has decided (to-date) not to vaccinate children; and have only been vaccinating adults from the age of 18 and over.
However, with the bulk of new covid infections in the UK being in the young (unvaccinated) between the ages of 16 and 24, yesterday (4th August) the UK Government have now decided that 16 and 17 year olds can now be vaccinated.
That is serious. Even 15 year olds can be infect with the covid virus. Babes have been known to be infect by covid virus.
Yep I know; the UK Government is constantly monitoring the situation, looking at the data and evidence, and listening to their scientific advisors (SAGE); so the UK Government policy may change in the coming months. But currently the UK's Government's attitude is that the pandemic is a worldwide problem, and no one will be safe until the whole world is vaccinated, so for the time being the UK Government is more keen on donating spare vaccines to the third world rather than vaccinate children in the UK.
Oh, good God! This is gracious, and this is commendable. By denoting vaccine to third world countries, the UK has a large heart. I pray the denoted vaccines do not get politized.
The UK has pledged to donate 100 million University of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines overseas by June 2022, 80 million of which will go to COVAX; to date the UK has donated 9 million, with more to follow in due course.
I understand the USA is donating more vaccines to the third world than the whole of Europe combined; in fact 500 million vaccines have been pledged, 5 times the number that the UK will be donating, but then the USA is five time larger than the UK.
That is generiousity at is best. Third world countries like Nigeria are known to politized such denotions easily. For example, the covid foodstuffs denoted by some billioners have still to find they to households. Such covid pallatives like rice, noddles, bean, vegetable and palm oils, flour, and other tropical foodstuffs have found they way into newly open provision stores in residential areas, for sale. I pray the vaccine did not end up in the pharmacies of the politicians or their friends. Seriously, it is best if the denotions were done through the WHO, and her agencies in the various countries. They agents should also administer the vaccines.
Yep, COVAX, which the bulk of the donated vaccines will go to, is part of WHO; so it should be in good hands.
Arthur, that understood. Although I am aware of such an initiative, I am not in the know that it has materialize. Many thanks to you, and to Chriss.
Arthur, what is happening in the UK?
In the past month, death counts have been rising more than active cases would suggest.
Number to be calculated: Period 2 weeks. Difference between total death count at the beginning of this period and the end. Divide this by the average active case count in said period.
In winter, before vaccination, some 1,2% of active cases were to pass away. After vaccination success, this number was down to 0,1% in May/June. But now the number is steadily rising to more than 0,2 %.
I am saying that fatalities rise over proportionally compared to the rise in active cases. Does the effectiveness of the vaccine fade? Or is Delta more dangerous?
Just to compare:
Germany in winter: 0,45%, now 0,08%
USA in winter: 0,58%, now 0,13%
The USA somehow has the same phenomenom as the UK. A month ago, it was down to 0,08%.
Is hospitalization an issue in the UK? Seems to be in the US, at least in some places.
With fairly few cases in G., we face the problem of vaccination tiredness. There is plenty of vaccines available, but fewer and fewer people get the shots. As the situation is not as politicised as in the US, my explanation is that people simply feel no imminent danger.
In the UK new cases are still high, but falling; whereas hospitalisations and deaths, although have risen recently are still low by UK standards, and at a tenth of what they were.
Because the vast majority of the UK adult population (now 89%) are vaccinated the Government ended the lockdown on the 21st June, and on the 19th July abolished all restrictions e.g. masks and social distancing in England; with the Welsh and Scottish Governments following suit shortly afterwards.
As regards vaccinations in the UK:-
94% of all adults over the age of 30 have vaccinated (97% of all adults over 80); but only 66% of adults between the age of 18 and 30 have got vaccinated.
The vaccines are holding up well; over 98% of those ending up in hospital, and dying of covid are those who are not fully vaccinated e.g. predominantly people under the age of 30. Although the UK Government is ready to give a booster shots to all adults over the age of 50 from September, as part of the annual flu vaccination rollout.
The majority of people getting infected with covid in the UK are between the age of 16 and 24. Whereas the UK Government had decided at this time not to vaccinate children; because the main spreaders of the virus are those aged between 16 and 24, the Government have within the past week lowered the minimum age for the vaccine from the age of 18 to 16.
Although anyone can become infected with covid, even vaccinated people, albeit vaccinated people are over 60% less likely to get infected, the people who are being hospitalised and dying from covid are almost exclusively the unvaccinated; predominantly people under the age 30.
The increase in hospitalisation and deaths in recent weeks is two-fold:-
• Firstly the Delta variant is far more contagious, its ‘R’ value is ‘7’ compared to the ‘R’ value of ‘3’ for the original variants that swept across Europe, and
• Secondly, with the lifting of all restrictions on the 19th July, nightclubs across England re-opened for the first time in over 16 months.
And of course, with there being no restrictions since the 19th July then the nightclubs have reopened at full capacity, with no social distancing and no masks.
And the people who mostly attend the nightclubs are the under 30’s, one third of whom are unvaccinated.
A further step being taken by the Government to encourage young people under the age of 30 to get vaccinated is to introduce ‘vaccine passports’ for entry into nightclubs from the end of September e.g. as from the end of September no one will be able to gain entry into a nightclub unless they have been fully vaccinated.
In answer to your question about whether hospitalisation is an issue in the UK; the short answer is no. Yes, hospitals are busier at the moment than they would normally be for this time of year, but that’s predominantly part of a catching up process on the backlog of non covid cases that have built up over the past 16 months, partly because the hospitals postponed some non-urgent operations during the height of the pandemic, and partly because patients with undiagnosed health issues were too afraid to contact their doctor during the pandemic in fear of getting covid if they went to hospital, so many have held off contacting their doctor until now.
As regards hospitalisations numbers in the UK:-
• Hospitalisations of covid patients in the UK peaked at 39,254 on 18th January 2021, covid patients on ventilators peaked on the 24th January at 4,077; the number of daily cases peaked at 67,775 on the 8th January.
• Hospitalisations of covid patients in the UK reached its lowest point of just 871 patients on the 27th May 2021; the lowest point for people on ventilators was 120 ventilators on the 23rd May; new daily cases at its lowest on the 3rd May at just 1,596.
• New daily cases peaked again on the 17th July, at 54,183 per day.
• As at 9th August, hospitalisations of covid patients stand at 5,909, of which 859 are on ventilators; and on 10th August new daily cases have fallen to 23,510, and the current trend is still downwards.
Thanks for your comprehensive abstract on the UK situation.
But my initial question remains kind of unanswered. And i understand it is not easy to find an explanation.
For anyone actively infected, there are two possible outcomes: Get over it and become immune - or pass away.
The (quite low) percentage of those passing away has doubled in last month. Same in the US. Why?
Meanwhile in G. we face confusion about current vaccination rate. Apparently a lot of vaccinations were done as a service for their employees inside companies. Those doctors performing this service have not reported their action to our central RKI (Robert Koch Institute). So all numbers are too low. It is expected that between 10% and 20% more are vaccinated than in official statistics. Came to public recently. We shall see how that changes the picture.
With the Delta variant now at 98% in G. and fairly low vaccination status, our slowly rising active cases (G. has currently only 6% of UK active cases population adjusted) do not match with the UK or the US. But recent findings on higher vaccination may shed some light on the situation.
In the UK deaths peaked at 1,824 per day on 20th January; when less than 1% of the UK population was fully vaccinated.
The lowest daily deaths (after over 80% of the adult population had been vaccinated) were on the 22nd May with just 6 deaths.
Covid deaths started to rise sharply again from the 5th July, with the 7 day average Deaths peaking on the 5th August at 114, now it’s down to 74.
The good news is, is that for the first time since the pandemic the ‘R’ value is finally below ‘1’, currently at 0.8 to 1.1 and the recent trend is downward.
The UK was on a near total social and economic lockdown from the 4th of January until the 21st June. The Government expected that there would be a slight increase in covid deaths from July not only because the Delta variant is far more contagious, but also as a result of ending the lockdown on the 21st June; and the public was warned of this.
However, the Government went ahead with ending the lockdown, and a month later abolishing the legal requirement to social distance and wear masks, because 94% of those who are most vulnerable from covid (people over the age of 30) are now fully vaccinated, and therefore the anticipated increase in deaths would be small. However, covid deaths are slightly higher than expected because in the UK, as is being reported in several other countries, more and more of the younger people are becoming hospitalised and dying from covid than previously; some speculation being that that might be due to the Delta variant?
Very good, world population has to stick together (if their respective governments let them).
By now all developed countries are getting into kind of a saturation phase. There is plenty of vaccines available.
Currently in Germany the excess number (not used) vaccines doses are: 11 mill. doses. Most will be donated to COVAX, as far as i understand. This is the pure number of excess vaccines as more and more vaccine doses are flooding the country every day from active delivery contracts. By the end of the first vaccination campaign a whole lot more will be donated.
Vaccine usage is quite distinctive and will probably vary in other countries:
not used Moderna: 20% of shipments
not used Astrazeneca: 21% of shipments
not used Johnson&Johnson: 30% of shipments
not used BioNTech/Phizer: 2% of shipments
Seriously, that one of the many good things. But I need to be enlighten what COVAX stands for.
https://www.who.int/initiatives/act-accelerator/covax
COVAX is an international initiative to fund and reroute vaccines to developing countries.
There are so many things to be balanced! Covid-19 is sill being investigated by the scientists. There have been social, economic, domestic and racial inequities as well as deaths across many frontiers.
It can be agued that the UK started slow as so many other countries did. After all, it was a novel virus and my experience with seeing how humans performed in different countries, has been quite similar. We begin to worry more as the scare of death (Numbers going up) increases.
That said, Boris got the vaccine quite quickly (Ahead of even the Americans) and we are way ahead in Europe. That was probably his best move.
Returning to how I started, There are many flowers to be looked at in a botanical garden, as instruments in an Orchestra ... or the way economics move, according to outer influence. Put simply, the need for balance has always been there. Government's duty is to try and get it right.
They make mistakes, yes, but by an large they have to do something and they do, all considering. Viewpoints will differ naturally, but we are actually - to my mind - in a much better place than a year ago and the opening up of the economy is important too.
I think that Rishi Sunak did an incredible job with Furloughs and I commend him fully. Humans will make mistakes, as we are not infallible but over all, we are trying. It is always better to try than spread bad news. of course, positive activism is good too. Much Love.
Thanks for the uplifting note; a joy to read.
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