How Well/Badly Do You Think Your Government is Handling Covid Crisis?
South Korea is on the ball, and has been right from the start, and has done a good job at containing the pandemic with minimal economic damage (relative to the rest of the world).
Many European countries have taken a tough approach and most, now that they have the ‘R’ rate under control, are slowly and cautiously easing those restrictions.
The impression of the USA, from across the pond, is one of chaos?
Here in the UK, I and the majority of the General Public felt that our Government was too slow in imposing the lockdown (dithered for 10 days). However, since the lockdown the vast majority of the British Public and all political parties (regardless to politics) have given our Government their full backing and support.
Now, just over six weeks into lockdown, the latest opinion polls show that 90% of the British Public supports the Government’s continued lockdown policy, with 25% believing the Government should be even tougher with the lockdown e.g. like Italy and Spain.
However, the ‘R’ rate (rate of infection) is now just below ‘1’ (0.9), and today Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, in his speech to the Nation (LINK to Speech Below): Has laid out his plans for the coming weeks and months, as to how the Government proposes to slowly ease the lockdown and cautiously move towards re-opening the economy; subject to strict conditions, based on scientific evidence.
In Full (13 minutes): UK Prime Minister Announces New COVID-19 Lockdown Rules to the Nation https://youtu.be/Rrbj2lHf70M
So how well do you think you’re Government is doing?Overall, I'm satisfied. There WILL be instances where it could have been done better, and I cannot speak for other states, but I'm satisfied with what my state is doing.
Which brings up another point; the president of the US does not have to authority or power to do that you seem to think he does. And, given the protests, I'm not sure that states do either - while they may have the legal authority, no state can endure without agreement from the populace. Unless, of course, military force is used and even then it is questionable.Thanks wilderness for your views. I understand the ‘balance of power’ is with the States rather than the Federal Government. That seems to be the situation across the world e.g. in Germany and Australia the States have the ultimate power, as do the three Celtic Nations in the UK.
In Germany Angela Merkel has been able to get the different States to work together for the sake of unity. In Australia (where my cousins live) the different States are acting independently; albeit they have tight border controls between the different States.
Although in the UK the three Celtic Nations have the final say, so far all three Celtic Nations (two Socialist Governments and one hard-right wing Government) have given Boris Johnson their full backing and support. However, as from yesterday, although the Celtic Nations still support Boris Johnson’s ‘Action Plan’ in principle (for the sake of unity), they made in clear in their ‘Addresses to their Nations’ yesterday that they will implement his Plan to relax the lockdown at a slower pace than for England, if they feel the timing isn’t right for their ‘nation’.
Although Trump may not have the Authority, what he does and say does nevertheless have an impact. From across the pond he does appear to be giving bad messages and ‘showing a bad example’ all too often; which would seem to undermine the efforts of any State wishing to take a more cautious approach! Just one (minor) example: His refusal to where a mask, and making a point of it, certainly does seem to be ‘sending the wrong message’ to the American people.
I agree: No State (or country) can endure without the agreement (support) from the populace. Most Governments around the world do seem to have the full support of their citizens in imposing harsh lockdown policies e.g. 90% support in the UK, with 25% thinking Boris should be even tougher with the lockdown. Although there are some exceptions around the world where citizens are less supportive of the lockdown and or ‘Social Distancing’, such as the USA e.g. the mass protests across America.
In the UK the Government does have the support of its citizens. And I’m also really impressed with the resolve of the Italians and Spanish people; they’ve been in lockdown far longer than the UK and USA and their lockdown have been a lot tighter (tougher) than the UK & USA; yet their citizens have supported their Government’s tough approach, and they remain in good spirit.
Yes, I can’t imagine military force being used in the USA; but many countries across Europe, including the UK, are effectively in a ‘Police State’ e.g. up until now, more than two people in public together in Britain would have been challenged by the police and potentially fined ($75 for a first offence); in Italy the fine for breaching the lockdown laws is $3,250.
Italian Police Clamp Down as Deaths Rise: https://youtu.be/rkeqcAuGP9oYou know, I think there is a large difference in philosophy between Americans and the people of most other developed nations.
It was only two generations ago when my grandmother made the trek across our Old West as a small child, where they settled in a small valley, coincidentally about 80 miles from where I now live. They were the only family there - the only other resident was a "mountain man" they rarely saw.
She grew up with no law, no health care, no fire dept., no grocery store, no safety net if something went wrong. They were on their own for every facet of their lives until a small settlement eventually grew up not far away. When g'grandpa's horses were stolen it was up to him to get them back - not the police. When he needed irrigation water it was up to him to hand dig miles of canal, without a single person telling him where he could or could not dig. It was up to the family to provide food and firewood (they were in snow country) for the winter, when nothing grew and game mostly left.
And the philosophy is still very much alive in a great many Americans, passed down from parents and grandparents. They neither need nor want a government in every facet of their lives, telling them what to do and providing for them. This is reflected in the protests here; "government does NOT know best and government shall NOT determine how I live". Good or bad, it makes for a population that is very difficult to govern, doubly so when governing means changing their very life to one of quarantine without visible cause.
But Europeans...Europeans have lived for centuries with a government yoke around their neck. They are used to it, they value it and they want a government to care for them, provide for them, make their decisions for them. It is a different philosophy that I don't really think other nations understand or appreciate when it comes to Americans. It is too foreign to them, far too long since the time their ancestors lived that way.Yep, I think you are spot on wilderness.
And not just centuries, but millennia: In England, from 1066 until 1574 if you were not a Lord or a Knight but nevertheless a person of means e.g. a craftsman or trader etc. then you were a ‘Burgess’ (an inhabitant of a town or borough with full rights of citizenship). If on the other hand you had no means and were the subject of the Lord of the Manor then you were a ‘peasant’, and as such the property and responsibility of the Land Lord. Albeit that system of rule began to slowly disintegrate following the ‘Peasant Revolt of 1381. The majority of the population in England during this period were peasants, but a peasant who earnt respect could be awarded ‘Freedom of the City’, to become a citizen freedom from ‘serfdom’ e.g. Freeman. It’s a practice that exists to this day, although these days’ to be made a ‘freeman’ and be given ‘freedom of the city’ is an ‘honorary title’.
One thing engrained into Europeans, which I haven’t seen in America, is the ‘wartime spirit’. I’ve seen it surface in Britain, felt and experienced it on occasions myself (during periods of crisis); and during this pandemic I’m quite pleased to see it surface across Europe.Wilderness, truth is told. Government don't have a
No one minded military force when terrorists hit the towers in Manhattan on 9/11. Why?
"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."
That gives the president that power.
Funny thing about presidential power, risk to peoples' lives is not politics. Why then is it always about GOP vs. Dems with Trump?
The states have the right under states' rights to protect the health of their people. If people in other states do not care about infecting each other or dying from a deadly virus, who are we to stop them?
Just don't ask our states to fork over more federal tax dollars for ignorance and flouting of common sense.LOL His oath does not give him the power to lock people in their houses. How you come to that conclusion is beyond me.
Why GOP vs Dem's with Trump? Because Dem's want him out in the worst possible way; he has been the bane of their socialistic agenda since he got in and they don't like it.They are not "Locked" in their houses. They are stupid, bitter, angry people who are always hateful and ignorant.
I come to MY conclusion because only in these red states do Boogaloo Bois show up dressed like 9/11 terrorists. I know what 9/11 was like. Some don't because they live in wilderness areas of the country tucked into the forests of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming busy practicing their military war games.
Funny how here in NJ and NY, young men don't have time to play war games. Funny how there are NO Boogaloo Bois. Those boys come to our states and cross the state lines and they go to jail dressed like al Qaeda. Been there done that on 9/11.
The Dems are not the only ones who want him out. He will not get a second term because he won't get the vote of 90% of those in the medical or science fields, vets he has left high and dry and women who do not respect his sleazy sexual molesting of underage girls with Jeffrey Epstein.
Not to mention that Wall Street cannot possibly endure 4 more years of his mouthing off that causes losses.
It's a lose/lose for Trump come 2020.
The Dems want a real man who is a real leader and a real president. Not some fake orange haired wannabe who spells like a 3rd grader and speaks as if Mommy Mary Ann will wait on him hand and foot.
When Obama gave the graduation speech, it went viral. The only thing that ever goes viral from Trump are his insults to people more intelligent that he is or his degrading of women."I come to MY conclusion because only in these red states do Boogaloo Bois show up dressed like 9/11 terrorists."
And that means Trump's oath of office gives him the power to shutdown the country? I'm not following the logic here.
If the Dem's want a real man and leader then they should supply a candidate that IS a real man and a leader. Not some socialist wanting only to increase the power of the Democrat party over the lives of the people.Trump loves to pretend in a democratic Republic form of government HE is the sole power. Is that what the Constitution states when it gives Congress the power of oversight of the Executive Branch of government?
The Dem have real man. Trump cannot possibly last another 6 months in the White House. He knows this. So do the Republicans.
Get over it. Nazis were socialists. Are you asking us to believe that those Boogaloo Bois and the Flaming Tiki Torch boys are not Neo Nazis?
This is not a country that EVER be ruled by Trump or the Republican Party.
I am looking forward to the Senate investigation of ObamaGate. I can't wait for Obama to choose his intelligent words carefully and hang the Republicans with their own ignorance and stupidity.
Posts like yours prove only one thing. It is long past time for the 13 donor states to cut off all federal funding to the south and midwestern states until they stop their ideological trigger happy ideas of power.
They live off Dem state tax dollars. NY, NJ and CT, get the least back from the fed for the $1 they pay in federal taxes. All while those southern and midwestern states pig out on 85% of every federal tax dollar.
Time to let the south and midwestern states put their state taxes into their own states and keep out of ours.
Why should our DEm states risk our lives and that of our kids to pay for the AK47 cammo wearing Boogaloo Bois?
Is that how people in the south and midwest spend federal tax dollars?FYI: Just one minor technical correction to note: Nazis were NOT Socialists; it’s a common mistakes Americans make because the Nazis party has the word ‘Socialist’ in it e.g. ‘National Socialist German Workers' Party’.
The Nazis was a ‘Far Right’ political party; which then makes more sense when labelling extreme right-wing Leaders like Trump as tending towards Nazism. After all the Boogaloo Bois and other groups you refer to are very hard-right-wing, and many do have elements of Nazism.
For clarity, see this explanation on Wikipedia:- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_PartyThere are different definitions of Socialism as you know. Hitler himself was a socialist whose socialism was more borne of the same kind of bitterness, anger and resentment we see in many US conservatives today.
Russia was once known as the Union of Soviet Socialists Russia..*USSR" and there is a different version of socialism in Russia than there ever was in Hitler's Germany.
I was not born into a country where a 20 something can walk into a store, refuse to follow health and safety precautions and then nearly beats to death a store clerk, calling it martial law.
If these 20, 30 and 40 somethings think they will take over by shoving guns in our faces everywhere we go, it's a simple matter of cutting off all federal tax dollars their states get the most from.
Then, let's see how they will afford those WMD arsenals. We have a highly intelligent military in the US and also National Guards in every state.
We do not need these pantywaist little boys running around waving semi automatics in our faces.
Here in NJ, one idiot who owns a gym in Camden has refused to obey the state's health regulations regarding the virus. I can just see it now. He's one of those, "No one tells me what to do" idiots who will have those patrons of his sweating in a large room that will become an incubator for infection.
If this is the ONLY way younger generations learn what obeying laws are for, so be it.Yes there are different definitions of Socialism (left wing politics), but Hitler was never a Socialist, he was a ‘Nationalist’ (hard-right wing politics), just like Trump, and just like the current British hard-right wing Government.
If you read the opening paragraph of the Wikipedia article it does clearly explain that Nazism is hard-right wing politics (and not Socialism): - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Party
The confusion (for Americans) comes because Hitler used the word ‘Socialist’ in his political party. There is a similar confusion (for Americans) between the distinction between ‘Socialist Democrats’ and ‘Democratic Socialists’; the former are Liberals while the latter are Socialists.
Americans also get confused between Liberalism (centralist politics in Europe) and Socialism (left-wing politics in Europe) because you don’t have Socialists in American politics e.g. Americans frequently call Democrats Socialists even though their politics is actually Liberalism.
Another common mistake most Americans make is thinking of Socialism as being synonymous with Communism, whereas in fact Communism is just one form of Socialism that is radically different to European Socialism e.g. Communism is a Dictatorship whereas European Socialism is Democratic Socialism.
Nazism (hard-right wing politics) is also a Dictatorship (like Communism, hard-left wing politics), but one main difference (relevant to this discussion) is that Nazism is ‘Nationalism’ (hard-right wing politics), whereas Socialism isn’t e.g. unlike Nationalism, Communism don’t generally care who you are provided you follow their ideology, whereas under Nationalism if you are different (race, colour, creed, religion etc.) then you are persecuted.
Yep Ewent, it seems so strange to us in Europe (from across the pond) that America is making Covid-19 so political when most of the rest of the world have put politics to one side so that all political parties can join forces to fight a common enemy together.
For example in the UK, as well as different political parties in the UK Parliament, each Celtic Nation, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland also have their own Governments, with devolved powers. So the political mix in the UK is:
• The UK Government: Conservative (Right-wing Capitalist Political Party).
• Northern Ireland: DUP in shared power with Sinn Fein (ultra-right wing and extreme left-wing parties).
• Scottish Government: SNP (Socialist Political Party).
• Welsh Government: Plaid Cymru (Socialist Political Party).
In the UK Parliament, as well as the Conservative Government, and the opposition parties from the Celtic Nations (DUP, SNP and Plaid Cymru), the other main Political Parties include Labour (Socialists), Liberal Democrats (Liberals) and the Green Party (Socialists).
Yet, in spite of the wide political spectrum in the UK, far wider and far more diverse than politics in the USA, ALL the Political Parties have put aside politics and have given their full support to the UK Conservative Government, to stand united, in fighting the Covid-19 crisis together.It may surprise our friends across the pond that only 33% of Americans still support Trump. The rest of us leave politics out of this health risk because we know what the word contagious means.
I am sure Brits know better than the US about now to keep epidemics from spreading given your country has more experience than the US.
When you live in the NY/NJ metro area, there is no way we can support the same Trump who has time after time proven he is not worthy of trust.
For me personally, having been through a near fatal case of Lyme disease in 1990, I know politics has nothing to do with a virus.
But, our tax dollars pay for elected officials to do a job. It is our responsibility to see to it they do it and protect the health of all citizens.
Our U.S. Constitution was based on the British form of government and it has stood the test of time.
Trump never stopped campaigning. When any man has such a personal record of corruption and knows he can't always break the law without one day it all coming home to roost, you see why it is important for the right wing in the US and Trump to keep him in the White House.
There are two famous quotes from a world famous man in history, Winston Churchill:
“Politics is more dangerous than war, for in war you are only killed once.”
And this one so aptly describes Trump supporters:
“A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.”"And this one so aptly describes Trump supporters":
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.”
This statement in my view describes today's liberal. Conservatives clearly consider facts, make every attempt to stick to a given subject. While liberals continually go divert of a subject, discard facts, and actually dwelling on unproven media propaganda.
I have to say I have witnessed you say some odd things, this takes the cake. You do go on...Actually, whether a political party “consider facts” or ‘ignores them’ isn’t governed by whether they are Conservative, Liberal or Socialist, it’s governed by how ‘radical’ the Government is, and how dogmatic it is in pursuing its own political ideology.
In fact regardless to their political ideology e.g. whether they are Conservative, Liberal or Socialist, it’s the ‘Radical’ Governments that tend to ‘ignore’ the facts.
In Britain, in recent decades it’s been the radical ‘Conservative’ Governments under the leadership of ‘Margaret Thatcher’ in the 1980s, and now under the leadership of Boris Johnson, who are apt at ‘ignoring facts’; the more moderate Conservative Governments under the leadership of John Major in the first part of the 1990’s and under the leadership of David Cameron from 2010 to 2016 paid close attention to the facts; just as the Socialist (Labour) Government under Tony Blair did from 1997 to 2010 did.
I’m not familiar with American politics as I am with European politics; but from across the pond it’s blatantly obvious to us that Trump is a radical leader that’s too obsessed with his own agenda to pay any attention to reality.Where is the conservatism when the National debt since 2017 has increased by another $3 trillion? And that number is BEFORE the virus..
The word conserve means to save or protect. Is that what Trump does? How? By making nice to Putin?
It is time all conservatives faced the reality that their ideology is warped, demented and not conservatism but an attempt to return to the days of the so called Conservatives of the South and Midwest who couldn't get their little patties dirty and used free slave labor to get rich.
How is conservatism today not Nazism? You see their demon seeds out on the streets of so called conservative states dressed like the 9/11 terrorists making threats, beating up people doing their jobs.
What are they saving and protecting? Their egos?
Conservatives today hate truth and facts. When you have a lunatic they elected by skanky means through massive gerrymandering the Supreme Court in 2017 struck down as "extreme gerrymandering, when you have conservative states like North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma all trying to suppress the right to vote, is that also conservatism?
Is it conservatism when Moscow Mitch brokered a deal with Oleg Derepaska who had been banned from doing business in the US until Moscow Mitch got his Senate CONs to repeal the Russian sanctions so Derepaska's RuAL could build an aluminum plant in KY?
I have to say women in the south and midwest are not fooling anyone. We know they get no where without a man buttering their palms.
I'm guessing to be a conservative woman you must obey or as Trump told the White House press, "Mike Pompeo's wife should wash his dishes."
I intend to go on and on and on with truth and facts conservatives hate the most.
And if conservative states think they will get another dime of federal tax dollars from Dem states to add on another $3 trillion, think again.
There is $47 trillion in profits earned in the US sitting offshore. Let the red states live off that.
I cab see why those from across the ponds impression of the US is that we are a chaotic society. The kinds of freedoms we enjoy come with chaos. We are a totally divided country, and I see no end to that.
In my view, the COVID19 crisis has deepened the divide. I feel Trump has done a good job in the midst of all the stumbling blocks he ran into. In my opinion, this virus came out of the blue and was underplayed by not only the WHO, but also the CDC. When it hit it hit hair. We had no means of testing who actually was infected, and our physicians were counting any and all withCOVID symptoms as being infected as well as being counted into the death toll. I appreciate that the Government worked quickly to provide financial aid to all, and have provided money to businesses to make every attempt to keep many afloat. Could things been done better, yes there is room for improvement. Our National Stockpiles could have been better, and our ability to produce test kits should have been better. However, we found out we just did not have the companies here to produce the amounts of teat kits we needed.
All and all, I think we will weather this storm.Yep, lots of valid points.
However the virus certainly didn’t come out of the blue. Italy and Spain were hit hard with it over three weeks before the UK went into lockdown, and the UK went into lockdown before the USA took any radical steps (other than banning non Americans from China or Europe from entering the USA).
Britain did have advanced warning, when it could have taken action, but our Prime Minister dithered for 10 days before acting. If he had acted sooner; like other European countries did, then the death toll in the UK would have been lower.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say the USA had ‘no means of testing who actually was infected’. In the UK we had limited means (limited to hospitals only), so initially deaths as a result of Covid-19 in the UK rather than being over counted, were in fact undercounted e.g. over 10,000 covid-19 related deaths in the first month in the UK did not get included in the data; that omission has now been corrected, so covid-19 deaths in the UK is now a lot higher than originally thought; and I suspect the same may apply in the USA e.g. the covid-19 related deaths in the USA have been underestimated, not over estimated.
Likewise, our National Stockpiles could have been better in the UK as well, and our ability to produce test kits should have also been better. Our Government, like just about every Government in the world, made lots of mistakes initially, and still does make mistakes, and errors of judgement; a steep learning curve; but our Government, as with many Governments around the world are learning; sometimes the hard way.Early on I think Trump made the mistake trusting those around him. On January 20, 2020, we had our first case in the US, Trump added the travel ban on Jan 31. At that point, Fauci, as well as the CDC and WHO, were vocally against the ban, claiming it was not called for.
Early on we had little testing ability. It was to be expected due to not having complete information on the virus. That information was needed to even start producing tests. Many just don't understand that fact. When a new strain of the virus the tests must be developed to test that specific strain. I think media has made it seem like these kit should have been stored. Whereas they could not be available very quickly. The problems occurred due to not having the supplies in the amounts needed to produce the test kits, along with ways to develop the tests. Yes, we could have had better stockpiles of swabs a reagent. However, at any rate we needed the virus to work a specific test for COVID 19.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 … to-produce
In regards to the count in the US, we had two other viruses that were prevalent form Nov - to today. An (H1N1) and B. A - has the very same symptoms of COVID19. This leaves me to think do to poor testing ability many that died of A(H1N1) were most likely counted in the COVID death toll. Being an RN I have had the advantage of speaking to physicians about this very problem. Docs were told if a patient died with even one symptom COVID was to be listed on the death record even when the PT was not tested, and few were in the first month of the virus.
I don't think we will ever decipher true stats on this virus due to lack of testing, and having H1N1 circulating at the same time. Both are virulent quick-spreading viruses.
I have come to the view there is no real point to blaming anyone for the spread of COVID, it is a new virus, it is not the first and will not be the last. Not sure why we should have expected any Government could be totally prepared for an unknown virus.IT's ultimately a freak of nature... In regards to the death toll. Being a nurse I can tell you there are other concerns that kill more virulently than COVID, opioids. Last year we had 69,029 people died of a drug overdose This was down from the year before we had an estimated 100,000 died of overdoses. I would prefer it if my Government put some effort into curbing this problem. ( not meaning to change the subject --- Just expressing my own view )Yep, calling a travel ban as early as he did is the only sensible thing I think I’ve seen Trump do or say!
Albeit, the logistics of the travel ban was handled badly e.g. thousands of Americans returning home all at once, overcrowding at the American Airports on their return, with an unknown of them carrying the virus back with them from China and Europe. The crowded conditions at the American airports being perfect conditions for spreading the virus further, and dispersing it across America; especially considering how infectious it is e.g. the ‘R’ value being 3.
I appreciate that back then we didn’t have the kits or resources for mass testing; but there was no attempt to ‘trace and contact’, and no instructions for returning Americans to self-isolate.
In contrast, Brits repatriated from other countries, as borders started to close, and airlines started to close down, were required to self-isolate for 14 days; as a precautionary measure.
Yep, early on the UK wasn’t geared up for reliable testing either. And although the infrastructure for mass testing was set-up in the UK in early March, it’s only been in the past few weeks that Britain has finally got its act together to step up mass testing; and even now we are struggling to meet our own targets, but improvements to the system are being made by the week.
However, it wasn’t due to the lack of information; the necessary information to make mass testing possible was given to the WHO by China in January, by the end of January South Korea was doing mass testing coupled with ‘trace and contact’; which has proved extremely effective in South Korea in keeping the virus under tight control.
Both the UK and the USA chose not to put any great resources into mass testing in the early days; and paid the price for it in lives. Other countries across Europe did put more resources into mass testing, and ‘trace and contact’, to varying degrees, which helped them to better control the pandemic.
But your other point is valid; there were major supply problems with the test kits, and sourcing the supplies to mass produce the test kits; and the British Government (quite rightly) rejected any kit or supply that didn’t meet British Standards. So rather than making it a high priority, as other countries did, Britain focused on other areas for fighting the spread of covid-19.
I appreciate that knowing the exact numbers of covid-19 deaths isn’t possible; and not all deaths have been recorded accurately e.g. across Europe (including the UK), although some deaths may have been attributed to covid-19 incorrectly; the evidence is mounting that a greater number of deaths due to covid-19 have not been recorded as covid-19 related. And most certainly, a great many covid-19 deaths in poor countries like India, Africa and Mexico are most certainly not being recorded as covid-19 related. Therefore, I suspect that if the truth be known, it’s a similar pattern in the USA?
For example, when the ONS (Office of National Statistics) in the UK published their monthly data on the 28th April, it quickly transpired that the UK Government had been under reporting covid-19 deaths because they’d only been counting deaths in hospital where patients had tested positive for covid-19, and not taken into account covid-19 related deaths in care homes or at home.
So now, the UK Government includes in its figures all deaths in hospitals where patients tested positive for covid-19, plus deaths in care homes and at home where covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. However, the data published by ONS still shows that even that may be an underestimate simply because the total number of all deaths in the UK in April (regardless to cause) is double to the ‘average over 5-years) of all deaths in the UK for April between 2015 and 2019 e.g. significantly higher than the Official figure for covid-19 related deaths by about 10,000.
• UK Total Deaths April 2019 = 44,123
• UK Total Deaths April 2018 = 46,469
• UK Total Deaths April 2017 = 39,101
• UK Total Deaths April 2016 = 46,856
• UK Total Deaths April 2015 = 45,178
• Grand Total (All deaths in April for 2015 to 2019 in the UK) = 221,727. Divided by 5 (Average over Five Years) = 44,345
Based on published data for just the first two weeks of April. The total for all Deaths for April 2020 in the UK is likely to be around 80,000 (double the national average for any April in the last five years).
In the week ending 10th April 2020 and week ending 17th April 2020 (first two weeks of April 2020) e.g. data for the last two weeks of April not due to be released by ONS until 28th May 2020 = Total Deaths in first two weeks of April 2020 = 40,867.
The five year average from 2015 to 2019 for the same two weeks is only = 21,017 (half of the 40,867 for this year).
The ONS (Office of National Statistics) in the UK is an Independent Government Department e.g. it is only answerable to Parliament, not to the Government; this being a safeguard to help prevent any UK Government from interfering with or tampering with the data. The ONS publishes its data (on all social and economic aspects in the UK) in the Public Domain, on their website, so that it is freely available for all to see e.g. a useful source of information for a ‘reality-check’ for the Opposition Parties in Parliament.
Deciphering the true stats on this virus due to the lack of testing has been a valid point up to now; but that may be about to change; at least for the UK! Not only are we beginning to get quality data published by ONS in their monthly reports, which is proving invaluable (and which is helping the British Governments to formulate their policies), but also, yesterday the NHS/British Government approved an antibody test kit (developed by Sweden) which is 100% accurate and doesn’t have the ‘false positives’ that are common with so many other kits. Therefore, the NHS/British Government now has the tool to start to find out how many people in the population have had covid-19; and from other small scale studies carried out in other countries I suspect that figure will be surprisingly low e.g. anything from 5% (or lower) to little or no more that around 15% at most. But over the coming month or so we should begin to get some idea on this!
I totally agree with the first half of your last paragraph e.g. no point in the blame game, a new virus that Governments were not prepared for etc.
However, I question your last point that the 69,029 deaths in the USA from drug overdose in 2019, and over 100,000 in 2018 is worse than the covid-19 deaths in the USA. At the time of writing this, in just two months (since the 16th March, when the first 100 covid-19 deaths were recorded) the total number of covid-19 deaths in the USA has reached 86,912 deaths. And that’s in just two months, whereas the 69,029 deaths last year for drug overdose were over 12 months (not just in two months). Also you’re still in the middle of the pandemic in the USA, which although is currently showing some signs of slowing slightly (due to social distancing) will almost certainly rise again in the coming weeks, as the USA eases up on those restrictions which have helped to slow the spread of the virus. So it is very likely that the total covid-19 death toll within the next couple of months (by August) could easily be double e.g. 160,000 or higher; and by the end of the year quite easily be over 200,000 and heading towards quarter of a million; which to me seems to dwarf any other cause of death in the USA?Sharlee,
please understand that all drug overdose or H1N1 or otherwise related death causes are already "priced" into life expectancy. If the US has a problem with opioids, then this probably is one, but the only cause, why life expectancy in the US is 3 years less than in Europe and almost 5 years less compared to Italy.
In March, April and May the Corona related death count in the US is 15% to 25% above average death rate. And that does not even include the undetected Covid19 related cases. Doesn´t mean that in your particular county or city you may not have noticed anything of Covid19. Then you are plain lucky. What am i to say for my dwelling: 200.000 inhabitants, 200 cases overall, 1 death, currently 2 active cases. Nobody noticed anything, but country-wide, world-wide Corona is certainly is big problem.
Studies have shown, that for individual death cases ( especially elderly), Corona takes some 9 to 11 years off life. Any argumentation that average age of Corona deaths is mostly higher than average life expectancy is plain false.
Already now, while the pandemic is still developing, it can be said that death count in the US could have been reduced at least 50%, if decisive measurements had been taken. In my understanding this is very bad management with fatal consequences. People get harmed and the economy gets harmed. Nothing is achieved.
Please forgive me for being very negative about a country that is not my own. But i have sympathy for US and its people. They don´t deserve this management.Sharlee, by the way, i used to live in Tuscola County, but that is generations ago.
You asked for what could have been done differently. A very valid question. Before responding, allow me to express that i try to participate in discussions and arguments on this forum only, if i have personal experience or background. Now, i am not a doctor, have no health care background. But until recently i was a business consultant with international clients mostly in high tech enterprises. So my background is management, from factory to executive level.
A good manager is judged by how flexible his organization can react on unexpected incidents. And it does not matter, be it a computer virus, a real virus or some other problem. It also doesn´t matter if it is a small construction company, an international player or a complete economy.
Last year a company i worked for, had a large shipment going to the US. At arrival at some harbour in Texas, the whole shipment was stopped by customs, because in the wood of the protective packing were found bugs, small insects that were considered to be dangerous.
An unexpected incident par excellence. Matters had to be analysed to not make that fault again, financial loss had to be minimized, actually everything had to be done on a small scale, that as well applies to the big worldwide issue of Corona. What to do:
First concentrate on removing the issue, not blaming the packaging company (WHO, China) that had not taken care of the wood impregnation properly.
Secondly, use experts to analyse and listen to the experts.
Thirdly, identify the bottleneck, the issues that hinder swift reaction. (PPE, ventilators, testing, hospital beds, health care system) and support them, throw in resources. Did not happen.
No. 4: Unite all resources and work together: On the contrary upper management (White House) and middle management (states) oppose each other.
No. 5: Solve the issue and don´t look at the next quartely financial statement (for Corona: no reelection campaigning)
There are some more general rules for management like: Don´t mess with the chain of command. I have doubts that is obeyed in the WH either.
Just by judging according to those few rules i cannot help to say: Really poor management. If i ran into perfomance like this in a company i would request to people responsible to be fired.
We can go into this much deeper. So treat this as a starter please."Thirdly, identify the bottleneck, the issues that hinder swift reaction. (PPE, ventilators, testing, hospital beds, health care system) and support them, throw in resources. Did not happen."
And yet we had military hospital ships into pandemic centers very quickly. Temporary hospitals were built. Manufacturers leaned on to convert to making masks and ventilators. All without truly truly understanding if they would be needed.wilderness, i also didn´t understand what the hospital ships were needed for. Same for the DIY ventilators.
Possibly this reflects on the American culture. It is a culture of heroes, if i may say. To be frank: in an organised system you don´t need special action to be taken, you don´t need heroes.
A story i found on a website on management principles. Goes like this:
An appartment building is on fire. Smoke everywhere. People have to be rescued. Next day newspapers are full with heroic firemen who rescued people. - Nobody mentions the family, whose smoke detectors did respond and who quietly went outside to safety.
I guess you understand my point, and why this story was displayed within management context.I hope to all so add, we never ran out of hospital beds or vent. Here in Michigan, the military we turned a huge property in Detroit (our hardest-hit area) into a hospital. We only had 8 PT ever see the inside of that hospital. Trump worked quickly to get needed supplies and extra bed capacity. I have not heard one story where anyone was denied a bed or a vent from the very beginning of the outbreak. Trump is a problem solver.
How is Michigan fairing now; with the current pandemic spiralling out of control across the USA?
Out of control implies disaster. I don't see a disaster. At this point the mortality rate is low enough. The government cannot (not in our system of government) control most variables which contribute to the spread of the disease.
I think anyone who blames our federal government for any perceived shortcomings doesn't understand how our system of government works.‘Out of control’ is how it is seen from Europe (across the pond) e.g. a second spike, far higher than the first spike that killed over 100,000 Americans; no sign of any effective measures to curb the second spike which is still rising rapidly by the day, with no indication of when it may peak, or how high that peak may be.
And the sad reality is that there is always several weeks delay between the rise in infection rates, and the rise in deaths. So the worst is yet to come.We'll see what the future brings. From what I've heard the demographics in this wave seem to be young adults with mild symptoms. No over running of hospitals (we never had that like it was seen in Europe) and very very low mortality rate. It isn't the disaster you imagine from your side of the pond. But I get it. You guys had an over 15% mortality rate. You would be more fearful. The town I live in had a less than 3% mortality rate first time around.
Like I stated previously. Our federal government does not have the authority to control citizens. I have no idea how to stop the spread and maintain individual liberties at the level I expect in this country. So, we'll see. No one attempted to control the crowds wandering the streets in protest so I do not look kindly on any attempt at government control of those of us who did not participate in the violence; while claiming they care about public health.Live to Learn: Yep, those countries in Europe who were slow in imposing the lockdown e.g. Italy, Spain, UK, the mortality rate was high. Boris hesitated for 10 days before imposing the lockdown, which contributed to the death rate being more than double of what it would have been if we had lockdown the economy early. In countries such as Germany and Greece who did lockdown early, their death toll was consequently amongst the lowest in the world.
But the UK reached its peak on the 14th April, and since then both new cases and the death rate have been steadily falling ever since; in spite of the fact that the UK has been steadily re-opening its economy since the 15th May (four weeks after the peak). While the USA didn’t reach its peak until the 24th April, and started to re-open its economy on the 1st May; far too soon e.g. trying to get back to normal while the virus was still widespread within the community, so in the USA the curve never really came down by much, and is now rapidly on the rise again (far higher than it was at its first peak on the 24th April).
Yes, that is the problem in the USA, the concept that ‘Individual Liberties’ (the USA’s ‘Wild West Spirit) is paramount; an attitude which seems to be the ‘death’ of 10’s of 1,000 of Americans. People across Europe, in Australia, New Zealand, and other free countries across the world don’t like being quarantined, or controlled, by the authorities any more than Americans do; but we recognise the need to do so (to save lives), and therefore are far more accepting of draconian measures imposed by the Authorities for the common good.
Actually the 15% vs 3% mortality rate you quoted is misleading. If you study the raw data below, you will see that currently deaths from covid-19 in the UK is only 33% more per head of population than in the USA; a month back it was 50%, so the gap (difference) is slowly narrowing.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Also, FYI hospitals in several southern States in the USA have reached full capacity within the last few days e.g. although currently its’s the younger people who are predominantly catching the virus, and the younger people do have a better survival rate; young people in the USA are dying in larger numbers than previous, and now that they are in hospital, on ventilators, it is only a matter of weeks before their deaths show up in the stats.
The USA is only 5% of the world population, yet its already had 25% of the worlds death from covid-19; so although things may be quiet in the State you live in; there are other States where the situation is much worse.
Bristol (where I live), with a population of 535,907 people, hasn’t been greatly affected by the pandemic. During the whole pandemic only 726 people in total, in Bristol, have tested positive (so only a handful of deaths in the city); in fact, only 19 people tested positive in Bristol during the whole of June. The worst affected areas were London and the North of England.
However, that is no reason to be complacent, because the virus is a silent killer, that you can’t see, and it spreads exponentially (if allowed). And it does kill the young.Lol. I'm only laughing at your comment about our desire to maintain our individual liberty being a problem.
I think that ends this discussion.
And not even that.
Fauci: "...you can’t talk about a second wave in the summer because we’re still in the first wave. We want to get that first wave down. Then we’ll see if we can keep it there."
What appeared to be working (lockdowns and so) went down the drain with the I-want-to-open-everything-now attitude. So now they see what man of us knew will happen.
Thank you for asking. Michigan is doing very well, case infections very low on average 3 to 4 deaths per day. We have about 10 million living in Michigan. We have been opening over the past month, and seem to be doing we. Our hospitals are back up and running as normal.
I have been watching the stats closely, it appears we have anywhere from 40 to 50 thousand new cases per day for the past week, but an accumulated death toll that is very low.
Yesterday we had 54,900 new cases and 667 deaths for the day. The stats seem to show the virus is perhaps much more catchy, but less likely to kill. It seems we are building a good size herd.
Just my opinion but I feel in the next few weeks we may be having a better idea where this virus is headed. Hopefully, it's on its way out.Looks like we'll have a new weapon to combat the disease, if not prevent it. The Henry Ford Health System has done a large, published and peer reviewed study of the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in preventing death from complications in COVID 19 patients. Unlike earlier "studies" of a couple other outfits that looked at a couple of hundred trials, the Health System analyzed efforts at several major hospitals and over 2400 patients. The finding is that the death rate is cut in half (from 26.4% to 13%) when the drug is administered early in the disease. That's pretty significant, and it will help that Trump has stockpiled huge amounts of the drug.
https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/ … ment-study
The published article, in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, with specific details and data:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltextThanks for the update wilderness, it was covered on the news media last week, and every advancement in combating the mortality rate is a step in the right direction.
Thanks Sharlee for the update in Michigan; let’s hope it stays that way.
However, there is ALWAYS several weeks lag between rising cases and rising death tolls; so, if not in Michigan, then certainly in many States you can expect the death toll to start rising sharply by the end of July.
True, the ‘testing’ in the USA is giving a positive rate of up to 20% in some States e.g. 1 in 5 tested being infected with the virus; but no indication that the USA is anywhere near reaching ‘heard immunity’ yet e.g. 80% of the population with antibodies; and the path to reach that level of protection (even with the advancement in treatment) would mean further deaths far in excess of the current 125,000 deaths, perhaps quarter of million or higher deaths!
Currently the UK is testing up to 200,000 a day, as part of the ‘trace and isolate’ programme to curtail the infection; and in contrast to the USA, the positivity rate on testing in the UK is only 0.5%; and in parallel to testing for infection, the UK Government (NHS) is currently running a nationwide 20% random sample testing of the population for antibodies (for research purposes only), for which our son was selected (his result was negative). The early indications of antibody testing in the UK is that (outside of London) less than 5% of the UK population has been exposed to the virus (have antibodies).
Where the UK Government is finding levels of infection high (hot spots) then they, as with other countries like Germany, Australia, South Korea etc. are using the ‘Whack-a-Mole’ approach e.g. putting the hot spots into quarantine to prevent the spread of the virus to the wider community.
Tower Block in Germany put under quarantine last week, fenced off and re-enforced by police, when 120 out of 700 residents tested positive for COVID-19: https://youtu.be/xaZoSQAlrdI
UK Conservative Government (Boris) puts City of Leicester (population 329,839) back into lockdown, and isolated from the rest of the UK, this week, because of 41 new infections in the city in just one week: https://youtu.be/tGR9vkHGN2wI have been tracking the stats as of about June 18 cases of infection started rising, hospitalizations falling as well as the death toll. Yesterday we had 45,182 new cases, with a death toll of 254. The charts show from June 18 on the cases were rising while the death toll was plummeting. The world stats are following the same pattern.
It well appears the virus has mutated as Dr. Fauchi claimed, and is more spreadable, but less of a killer.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/Dr. Fauci did not say it was a ‘less of a killer’. He said the mutation made it more infectious, but not more deadly e.g. the chances of dying from it (once you’ve contracted the virus) is the same as before.
The one point you haven’t grasped is that there is always several weeks lag between becoming infected and hospitalisation, and then several weeks lag between hospitalisation and death. Therefore the sudden and dramatic rise in infections in recent days will not manifest itself into deaths until towards the end of July.
The UK, which is the worst affected country in Europe, had just:-
• 516 new cases today with just
• 22 new deaths.
The USA had:-
• 45,182 new cases today with
• 254 deaths in the last 24 hours.
Both new cases and deaths are still steadily falling in the UK
In the USA new cases have sky rocketed in recent days, so you can expect deaths to follow suit within a few weeks.
FYI: Hospitalisations are NOT falling, but rising dramatically in several Southern States:-
Coronavirus cases through July 2: Texas hits record high in hospitalizations with 7,382 patients: https://youtu.be/8Dhc-oHTwTcI think the next two weeks will give us here in the USA a good idea if the increase in cases will cause more death. Being a nurse I have many friends working daily in local hospitals here in Mich. I have gleaned from them the virus has taken on new symptoms, and they are seeing a few cases hospitalized for more than a day or two, most being young adults.
For over one month we have seen an increase in cases ( we have been testing 20 to 25 thousand a day) but the death toll is very low, yesterday we had none.
I am watching the numbers in our south, they have had the largest jump in cases, although death rates have remained low as in Mich.
“There’s a little dispute about it, but I think the data is showing that there is a single mutation that actually makes the virus be able to replicate better and maybe have high viral loads,” Fauci said.
Fauci noted there’s no confirmation on whether a patient would fare better battling this new mutation."
Hopefully, some of this information will be coming soon.
July 5,
USA --New cases 44, 530 Death 251
It well appears(if these stats hold) the virus has mutated and spreads more quickly but causes less death. The next two weeks will show if the virus has mutated to a strain that is no longer causing deaths that are different than the yearly flu. Hopefully, the virus will be one that fizzles on its own.
Sharlee: Yes, where I live (Bristol) is like Michigan e.g. very low case count and very low deaths; the concentration (epicentres) of the virus at the moment is in London, Northern England and north Wales. It’s now virtually eradicated in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Looking at the stats for the whole of the pandemic to date (March to end of June inclusive), in relation to testing and confirmed cases; in the UK 2.68% of tests have been positive; in the USA it’s 10%. In the past week only 0.5% of tests in the UK have been positive; in the USA over the past week several Southern States are showing over 20% of the tests as positive.
5th July in UK, just 516 new cases, and just 22 deaths; compared to the USA where it was 44,530 new cases and 251 deaths; so in the USA that’s over 86 times more news cases than in the UK on 5th July; with the death toll being 11.4 times higher in the USA. Given that the USA population is 4.9 times bigger than the UK population; it would seem to me that per head of population, and in actual numbers, an awful lot more people are dying in the USA from covid-19 than in the UK.
What you do need to bear in mind is that when people become infected they don’t die almost immediately, there’s several weeks lag before they become sick enough to need a hospital, and then a further few weeks after admission to hospital before they start dying e.g. a long lag time.
Also, you need to bear in mind that there will be a correlation between the number of people who become infected and the total number of deaths e.g. the more people who become infected, the more people who (within 6 to 8 weeks) will eventually die. So as the number of people who are becoming infected in the USA has more than doubled in the last week you can expect the number of people who are dying at the end of July to more than double.
So if you want to be sure of cutting the death rate, rather than risk it rising again, you do need to dramatically cut the number of people becoming infected; which is NOT happening in the USA.
Governments of all the wealthy countries (except the USA), and many other countries like South Korea, around the world are making every effort to keep the infection rate low. Apart from New York, and perhaps a handful of other northern States; the USA is making no such attempt, so in many parts of the USA the infections are now spreading exponentially.
Most countries around the world, including the EU and Australia, do close off internal and external borders, and even isolate whole cities, and even individual residential tower blocks to contain the virus e.g. just today Australia has just closed its internal border between Victoria and the rest of Australia to contain the virus. Australia, with a population of over 25 million, have had a grand total of just 8,586 infections during the whole pandemic, and just 106 deaths in total, because (like South Korea and Greece etc.) their Government have been strict on fighting the pandemic from the start. All these countries now have economies in growth because the pandemic in those countries is now largely behind them.
Last week, the city of Leicester (with over 300,000 people) was shut off from the rest of England to contain the spread of the virus.
However, I can’t imagine that internal borders between States in the USA would ever be closed to prevent cross-border contamination, and re-contamination.
Apart from nightclubs, cinemas and theatres, which are still closed in the UK, the UK economy is now (since the 4th July) beginning to recover e.g. pubs and restaurants in the UK were allowed to open on the 4th July for the first time since 23rd March; with lots of strict regulations to minimise the risk of spreading the virus. So things are beginning to get back to normal in the UK, and safely with low infection rates e.g. the spread of the virus is currently well contained in the UK, with a very low and decreasing death rate.
4th July: Pubs, hairdressers and theme parks reopen in England – UK COVID-19 update https://youtu.be/k_GhhH6XLNg
The above video shows how the UK Government is re-opening pubs safely; how does it compare to the ‘health & safety’ restrictions imposed on pubs in the USA?
The one thing I can’t get my head around is why Americans seem so blasé about the high death toll in America (over 130,000 dead, and still rising), and the high and dramatically increasing infection rate, currently around 50,000 new infections a day, which will lead to more deaths, which could have been avoidable if the USA Government had taken the pandemic seriously and fought it like most other countries have done.
The most worrying thing is that the virus does spread exponentially (and more people who become infected, the more deaths will follow). Once you let the virus spread out of control it is extremely difficult to contain; as the UK, Italy and Spain found to their cost. But fortunately the UK, Italy and Spain learnt their lesson early on, and now have the virus well under control, so that they can now safely open up their economies with minimal additional loss of life; something the USA seems to be struggling to do!
But all I can see from the other side of the pond is that Trump is in denial about the pandemic, and his only interest is to open up the American economy as fast as possible, regardless to how many lives it costs, just so that he can boast about the economic figures come the Election in November.
As regards your last comment:
“It well appears (if these stats hold) the virus has mutated and spreads more quickly but causes less death. The next two weeks will show if the virus has mutated to a strain that is no longer causing deaths that are different than the yearly flu. Hopefully, the virus will be one that fizzles on its own.”
FYI: The mutation you refer to does not make the virus less lethal, it just makes it more infectious e.g. more spikes on the outside of the virus cell so that it has a greater chance of latching onto a lung cell so that it can get inside the lung cell in order to start replicating itself.
The low deaths you see at the moment are due to other factors e.g. improved treatment, younger people (who do have a better survival rate) being more commonly infected, and the long lag time between infection and death. Although younger people do have a better survival rate, young people do die of the virus; and with the younger generation currently exposing themselves to infection by socialising etc. it is only a matter of time before they in turn start infecting their parents and grandparents, who have a higher risk of dying from covid-19.
An interesting and valid comment Chris57. I think your thinking about how to deal with a problem is on track.
GAYep, spot on Chris.
In my last job in the civil service (before I took early retirement) I was required to do the course and take the exams in PRINCE2 (Project Management) as part of my job.
And also, during that period, I volunteered in the civil service to be part of the Nationwide Government ‘Disaster Recovery’ Team (for tackling ‘national disasters’) which I found educational, and which I enjoyed being a part of. (And for my reward I was given an expensive calculator as a free gift!).
So I learnt a lot of the skills you refer to, and understand exactly what you are saying.Chris, as you might know, the British Government gives a daily briefing to the Nation at 5pm, which on the podium are three people: A senior member of the Government in the centre, usually with a Health Expert on one side and a Scientific Expert on the other. Currently the briefing itself is around 20 minutes followed by Q&A’s for usually about the next 40 minutes; starting with questions from the general public and finishing with questions from the ‘Press’.
The Daily Briefings are broadcast across ALL British TV News Channels live, and I (as with many Brits) find these daily briefings very informative; largely because there’s no attempt at trying to make them political or upbeat, or depressive, but just informative. And when the Government gets things wrong, or miss their targets, they will openly admit it in the daily briefings; which is refreshing.
With your expertise in the area of ‘Project Management’, and as an outsider, if you have the time, and you are interested, I’d be interested in your thoughts/impression on these daily briefings e.g. from your perspective. Below is the link to just the first 20 minutes of yesterday’s UK Government Daily briefing to the Nation e.g. up to the first question from the public: https://youtu.be/IQP2UyiDGAoNathan, that is what i ment with my remark on Trump and Johnson. They are not "tweedledee and tweedledum". In the UK i see a plan and action, even if the matter is far from being under control.
In the US there is a big contest going on about who can throw fog candles and smoke grenades best. No plan on the horizon.
A little technical background on system dynamics: To analyse a dynamic system, you can neglect static situations. In the context of the dynamic system "Corona US", you can set aside all states where outbreak is under control. For example: substract New York numbers from the rest of the US and you have a more realistic picture of how contained the situation is. And it is not contained at all. Active cases are on the rise, the daily change on active cases is as high as 2 months ago and even higher if take out New York. To talk about opening up does not sound very reasonable.I'm not seeing anything indicating an increase in new cases - on the contrary the increase of total number of cases seems to be slowing, indicating that the rate of new cases in falling. Seems to be because no one is reporting just what the rate of new cases is.
If so, and the rate of new cases is falling, then that would indicate that at least some control is being achieved even though there are new cases every day.
In my state (Idaho) the death toll has in fact stabilized and has not risen at all, even though there are cases of infection still to be resolved between death and recovery. This, too, seems to indicate that we are beginning to see some control.
I would sure like to see a graph showing new cases being reported per day, over the past month or so. Not a graph of total cases, but new cases being seen each day.wilderness, please try this link:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
If you scroll down, you will find a chart on active cases. The curve is still going up in the US. You can do the same trick for other countries or even to some extent to any state, indian reservation..., you only have to work yourself through that webpage.
I looked at Idaho and aggree that it is in stable condition. So where is the rise in active cases coming from (some 20k per day)? Must be from other hotspots, because NY is cooling down.
One explanation could be that recovered people are not tested enough and thus not recorded to relieve the active case count. How are recovered cases handled?
I would expect that for good understanding of the outbreak status you need at least 3 tests per infected ( 1 for infection, 1 for recovery and one to make sure) and a hit rate of less then 5% for newly infected. Otherwise you bend the curve by simply not testing enough or without testing strategy. Are all health care workers tested regularly?
In Germany testing is still in the range of 80.. 100.000 per day. But daily new infected is well below 1.000 now. That is a hit rate of less than 1%. Only when you start searching the needle in the haystack, your are on the safe side.Thanks for the feedback Chris.
Testing has been a sore point with the British Government, one of its spectacular failures!
After running trials the British Government set up the infrastructure for mass testing (Drive through Test Centres) across the UK from Monday 2nd March (three weeks before we were put into lockdown). However, virtually all of them just collected dust for over two months; and even now many are still not being fully utilised simply because the Government didn’t have the resources (logistics and staff) and had major difficulties in importing reliable test kits, or the raw materials necessary for British manufacturers to produce the kits in sufficient numbers. Part of the problem being that the NHS rejected a high percentage of kits from abroad because they didn’t meet the NHS high standards (Quality Control).
Therefore testing didn’t start in the UK until the 6th April, and for the first month was low; far lower than the Government wanted. The Government’s target on the 6th April was to achieve 100,000 a day by the 31st April, which it did achieve at the 11th hour, but just for two days by throwing all the resources to hand at it. Albeit, in the past three days they have now achieved and exceeded their target; currently achieving about 135,000 tests a day, and rising.
The Government’s next target (set on the 1st May) is to achieve 200,000 per day by the 31st May.
As regards daily new cases, in spite of no mass testing initially, there were over 4,500 new recorded cases per day at the beginning of April, and rising; peaking at well over 6,000 on the 1st may. However, since the 5th May new daily recorded cases have steady fallen, and is now down to less than 3,500 per day, and falling, in spite of the number of daily tests being done steadily rising by the day; which the Government takes as a good sign e.g. the more tests you do the more cases you are likely to detect.
The British Government isn’t testing the General Public at large yet. Currently, the only people eligible for testing are NHS and support staff, people in care homes, and key workers e.g. the people most exposed to the virus and therefore most at risk at becoming infected; but the Government’s desire is to make testing more widely available in time.
As a follow up, the Government now intends to shortly start testing all NHS staff, people in Care Homes and Key Workers with the new antibody tests which they’ve recently ‘Approved’ (because of its reliability) to get a full picture of the spread of the virus in these key areas, including accurate data on asymptomatic people; to help the Government with future strategies in combating the virus.
So we may not be doing as well as Germany e.g. Britain now being the worst hit country in Europe; but I think by taking a more cautious approach than the USA, the UK will fare a lot better than the USA in the long run.
I read in German news outlets that concerns are growing about the mismanagement in the White House.
There is total disbelief that no contact tracing is running. Apparently some people were assigned for the job but they had no order to do the job. Big questionmark ???
I don´t quite understand what the difference is between being assigned and ordered to do , but may be i am too much used to corporate management and leadership.
While i am thinking about this, it may be a good idea that Trump and his team get reelected. With their management skills they probably don´t know any more where the presidential football is and lost the keys. Makes us live in a safer world. SMHYep, I'm getting the same message from the British News Media.
"...it can be said that death count in the US could have been reduced at least 50%, if decisive measurements had been taken."
You might be right in that the total death count could have been cut 50% with draconian measures in the US (measures which, for the most part, would be illegal and not tolerated by the population).
But the death rate due to the virus, in the US, is nowhere near the worst in the world, and cutting it 50% would have put the country near the bottom of developed, populous nations. That seems very unlikely given the number of large cities; what are you looking at to form such an opinion?
Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Sweden, Netherlands and Ireland all have a worse per capita death toll from the virus. Most of what is left (but certainly not all) are either from countries that are unlikely to be reporting correctly (China, for instance, or India with it's masses living in the streets) or from third world nations that don't get international travel as other nations do and won't know the death toll in any case. Some notable exceptions might be Germany and Austria; there are others as well, mostly small nations without huge cities (where US deaths are the greatest).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 … habitants/USA’s covid-19 deaths per million is currently 268 (and rising), so cutting it by 50% (down to 134 per million) would not “have put the country near the bottom of developed, populous nations”; it would have put it 21st from top (in the world), instead of its current position of 13th from the top (in the world). Which out of 215 countries would still put the USA in the top 10 worst affected countries in the world, based on deaths per million.
Yep, as you say “draconian measures in the US (measures which, for the most part, would be illegal and not tolerated by the population)”; is something we’ve recently discussed: The USA’s “Wild West Spirit”. However, it’s that same ‘draconian measures’ which is costing ‘lives’ in the USA; while Governments of even the most worst hit countries in Europe e.g. Italy, Spain, UK are using draconian measures, with the full support of their citizens; and such tough measures are undoubtedly saving lives. Although Boris Johnson (British Prime Minister) was slow in acting initially (which cost lives), once he did act, his measures were tough (draconian), and in spite of that he has support of over 80% of the British population, and (according to opinion polls) 25% of the British population think he should be even tougher e.g. more like Italy.
One interesting quirk in the stats is that female leaders have been more successful at managing the coronavirus crisis: This article makes interesting reading: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ … rus-crisis
One facet of Europeans is the attitude that ‘All Life is Precious’, and put a lot of importance on the ‘Value of Life’ etc., something which Americans don’t seem to take so seriously! For example, in the UK even if death tolls in a specific area are already low by International standards e.g. road accidents, even if there is a small rise in the trend, the British Government will act swiftly to bring in new legislation, or raise ‘Standards’ etc., to reduce the risks. Where as from across the pond, I get the distinct impression that all too often the American Authorities (and the American people) will turn a blind eye, taking the attitude that more people die from suicide or cancer etc., and therefore it’s not a great issue compared to other causes of deaths!
NY and NJ are the most people congested of any of the other states per square mile. But I am most proud of our NY and NJ governors. When Trump was unwilling to admit there was an epidemic he then claimed he knew about "before anyone else," he was worried ONLY about his re-election numbers and dumped HIS job on governors.
Then when he realized he had further empowered governors to rely on states' rights to protect the people in their states, he knew these governors and not he, would be making decisions. So on when the Twitter criticisms of governors.
However, the CDC has totally been under Trump's control. Doctors, nurses and state governors in key states affected by this epidemic are all saying the same thing, "trying to contain this virus with no help from the CDC is like driving a car with both hands tied behind your back."
No matter what else Trump says, the US now leads the world in over 1 million infected. That's 1 in every 3 Americans. And as the death count goes to 90,000, all the Trump happy talk just isn't cutting it anymore.
He hates that he cannot control this virus and play world savior.When you say 1 in every 3 Americans you mean 1 in every 3,000 Americans. Even so, that is a lot of people; in spite of 'Social Distancing' which has kept the infection rate a lot lower than it would otherwise have been. Albeit, the infection in America is still spreading, and will probably spread faster because too many States are easing the restrictions too soon and too fast; so that number will shrink still further by the autumn.
No, according to the CDC's most recent report of those infected by the Corona virus, the total infected is 1.54 MILLION of that number 90,000 have died.
President Obama has said that this virus would be bad under any circumstances but not preparing as soon as it was known only made it more deadly.
NY and NJ are now reopening in a very intelligent way. It's being done in phases. It begins with the towns that have had no additional infections for more than 2 weeks.
When states are people congested, it puts greater burden on the entire public to do what they must to stop the spread of the virus.
When I saw those anti lockdown protesters on TV last night, I realized just how under educated the people in some states truly are. Perhaps if they spent more on education and less on AK-47s, they would have better jobs and not have to worry about reopening.
People in NY and NJ are shopping in grocery stores but with necessary social distancing. I am so proud of the young men and women in my state (NJ) who have realized there are always options.
You see them in stores with masks and gloves and no one dares point a gun in a store owner's face.
But these young parents are also creative with the kids. The little ones are masked with these adorable kiddie character designs on their masks.
And this week on my street, the 2 school age kids who had birthdays were celebrated with a drive by party and we all had signs on lawns.
Last weekend, on another street near mine, they had a front lawn barbecue on each lawn while they relaxed in the sun and were able to speak to their neighbors.
No guns in their hands, no threats. What in the world is wrong with people in the south and midwest that all the think about is violence?
And please. Don't tell me they are poor. That is their own fault. They refuse to get an education that fits today's jobs and hold onto jobs that are obsolete.
You bet coal mines, oil rigs and frackola sites have to be shut down for social distancing. That's a "duh" moment they don't like to face."You bet coal mines, oil rigs and frackola sites have to be shut down for social distancing. That's a "duh" moment they don't like to face."
You forgot to mention meat packing sites, plants packaging food of all types from cereal to vegetables. Have to close those, too, don't we? Or are fracking sites, with only a few employees, different from a corn canning operation with hundreds?I am sure I do not have to remind you that the meat packing plants that had to be shut down, Tyson and others are ALL Located in red states. Is that how they define conservatism? Flout the FDA regulations?
The last time anyone bothered to check what these meat packing plants were doing was in the early 1900s when the Muckrakers reported on the most disgusting, unhealthy practices.
We all know how red states conserve: cheap is as cheapos do.
So they don't bother with taking precautions. Hear all over the globe there is an epidemic and do ZERO to protect their workplaces. They should be shutdown for forcing workers to work in violation of OSHA safe workplace regulations.
How is it ONLY plants packing food in the south and midwest are affected? We have dozens of plants packing food right here in NJ. But we obey health and safety regulations and we have inspectors on a regular basis.
I know this because when I worked for nearly 25 years as a tech writer, filing reports for these inspections was part of my job.
The only states complaining about virus restrictions are the red states who were the same states that were home to the Wild West towns where you shoot first and ask questions later.
Sorry but this is 2020 and savages go to prison in our Dem states."The last time anyone bothered to check what these meat packing plants were doing was in the early 1900s when the Muckrakers reported on the most disgusting, unhealthy practices."
We both know that is untrue as they are inspected regularly. Why would you say a falsehood like that? And then indicate they ARE inspected in spite of your comment they are never looked at?
You failed to explain the difference (re: Covid virus) between a food processing plant and a fracking operation. Is there a reason beyond a dislike for the most useful resource we have that you don't want to shut them down, too?
Is this coming close to what is happening in the US?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oo9ka0DDnQk
This guy from CNN gives a reasonable explanation.
People out of jobs in the US immediately face dire financial situation. Makes them very desparate.
I dare say that many, most people in Western Europe do not experience this dire financial situation, even if they are layed off, temporarily or permanently. They have some financial losses, but they also couldn´t spend their money during lockdown, except for living essentials.
And, not many guns around in Europe.Good link, and there is a lot of truth in it. Those at or nearer the bottom of the income ladder have seen the "ruling class", including legislators, increasingly distanced from them, increasingly not understanding (or caring) about the blue collar workers of today. And that most definitely means the large majority of those forced out of their jobs and livelihood. They have very little reason to trust that ruling class, for they are the forgotten ones that no one pays attention to any more.
In addition, Fauci's comment that he does not give advice on anything but health issues is telling; that's all we hear about. Not about the failing economy, not about poverty, not about hunger...just about the health issue of the virus. That is a far cry from ALL the issues the virus has brought about.One question remains. Why would Dr. Fauci, a medical expert and consultant to 5 presidents speak about anything but health issues?
If you want the status of the economy, you go to Nobel prize winners in economics. Do you go to the dentist for a back ache?
One interesting point I picked up from watching the video Chris:
In the USA, of the top 25% of income earners more than 60% can work from home, while of the bottom 25% of income earners, only 10% can work from home.
In comparison, in the UK, from data published by the ONS (Office of National Statistics): Since the Lockdown, 44% of UK employees are now working from home; compared to just 12% in 2019.
ArthurNo quite true. As you may recall, Spain, Italy, Greece and Germany within the past 5 years have had several protests in their streets do to lack of jobs.
The problem in red states is of their own making. No one up north uses coal and the only reliance on oil is the airlines.
The point is that these whiners in red states created their own problems by holding onto obsolete jobs that now face closings for good.
What happened here in NJ is that we merely converted business so that our small businesses could remain open. In fact, they are begging for workers because now they no longer serve in groups in their restaurants and grocery stores.
They've converted to curb service which is safer. I realize people are out of work. But I also know that some of these people earn more from an unemployment check than they received in a Walmartian paycheck.Ewent, with reference to your comment: - “Not quite true. As you may recall, Spain, Italy, Greece and Germany within the past 5 years have had several protests in their streets due to lack of jobs.”
To Chris’s comment:- "I dare say that many, most people in Western Europe do not experience this dire financial situation, even if they are laid off, temporarily or permanently. They have some financial losses, but they also couldn´t spend their money during lockdown, except for living essentials".
The protests you refer to were not due to lack of jobs, they were for varying political and social reasons e.g. in Spain it’s predominately been protests for Catalan independence. Even Britain has its fair share of Protests, predominantly ‘Anti-Trump’ protests, protests against Brexit, and protesters campaigning for World Governments to do more to tackle Climate Change.
Chris is right, most people in Western Europe do NOT experience the dire financial situation currently faced by many Americans, predominantly because our furlough schemes are helping to save jobs, especially in the UK where people who can’t currently work because of the ‘lockdown’, rather than being made unemployed, are paid 80% of their normal wages by the Government; which in turn is helping Industry in not having to make so many people redundant (as the Government is covering the costs). Hence, in the UK unemployment is still less than 2 million, compared to the 26 million unemployed in the USA.
Therefore, during this lockdown, most people in the UK are still getting almost as much money as they would during normal times (80% of their normal income) while not having the cost of travel etc., consequently, although the British people can’t go out to spend money in the shops or on entertainment, holidays etc., they are still nevertheless spending money on more than just food and household bills e.g. online shopping, click and collect etc. In Britain, sales of cloths have plummeted, but the sales of DIY supplies and household goods have risen sharply.
The current economic situation in the UK is less than 2 million unemployed; economic growth currently down by only 2.8% (recession), and rather than inflation we have ‘deflation of 0.9%’.Check again. Those varying social reasons had to do with low pay, lack of decent paying jobs and immigrants coming into their countries they claim were taking jobs away.
I know this because my son's friend lives in Europe and has lived in several of these countries due to the demands of his job.
The United States cannot be allowed to become Dodge City.Nope. I don’t need to check again as I’m not getting the information ‘third-hand’; I LIVE HERE in Europe, so I’m fully aware of the situation in the EU (European Union, 27 Member States) first hand.
You are over simplifying a complex picture, where for some (some of the time) one of the issues might be their perception of job security, for various reasons; of which to some of them immigrants can sometimes be a factor. However, they are NOT in the majority; there are many Social and Political issues at play, not just employment, especially in Germany (one of the four countries you listed) where unemployment was only 3.2%.
Of the four Member States of the EU that you referenced, Greece is most certainly the poorest, because they (along with Ireland) were the hardest hit Member State during the world financial crisis of 2008 e.g. just like some Member States in the USA have greater poverty than others. Whereas in Germany (another of the four you tagged as having high unemployment, even though it doesn’t) as with most of the rest of the 27 Member States of the EU, unemployment is respectively low, and don’t have mass protester protesting against job cuts.
However, if you check your facts, the Greece people were NOT protesting in the Streets due to the lack of jobs, their protests related to the effects of the strict austerity necessary to get Greece out of the economic crisis. It is a far more complex and diverse picture than you paint; and in spite of this, the Greeks are a resilient race, that during the current Covid-19 crisis have supported their Government to fight the pandemic in a way that would seem unimaginable in the USA.
To put it into perspective; below are a handful of short videos that gives some insight into Greece and the Greek People:-
• After virus control, Greece hopes for economic recovery: https://youtu.be/K2qrlBtJhLI
• Europe should learn from Greece in the fight against COVID-19: https://youtu.be/1qJKSR59qkM
• How Greece has emerged an unlikely success story of the coronavirus pandemic: https://youtu.be/m220PqN_KXI
• Greece's economy on the up but not everyone is feeling the benefits: https://youtu.be/rXR9nKC7WKA
• Greece charts a fresh course: https://youtu.be/a3sCy44iAmcIn Europe ...They have some financial losses, but they also couldn´t spend their money during lockdown, except for living essentials".
I did my bi-weekly accounting and now have numbers on my (household of 2) spending for ad-hoc consumption (food, travel, restaurants, gardening, hardware).
Went down from 1400 to 1700 monopoly money in January and February to 450 mms in April (April being the first full month of lockdown).
At least on my spending briefcase lockdown had an impact.
And i didn´t need a refill for my car for 6 weeks.
Can you confirm?Chris, in our family of three:-
• Our son is a self-employed professional photographer, currently not working (due to the lockdown) and therefore paid 80% of his loss earning by the Government.
• My wife took early retirement; currently too young for the State Pension, therefore her only income is her works pension and the disability allowance (PIP) from the Government for her bad back.
• I also took early retirement, and too young for State Pension, therefore my only income is my works pension and the carers allowance from the Government e.g. paid by the Government to look after my wife because of her bad back; effectively being paid by the Government to be a househusband.
So we each have our own budget e.g. my wife pays for the food, clothing, household goods, holidays, luxury items and the car (as I don’t drive) etc., while I pay the utility bills, entertainment, luxury items, DIY and Gardening supplies etc.
• The only real financial difference the lockdown has had on our son is that he can’t drive due to the lockdown so he’s currently saving £20 per month on petrol.
• The only financial difference the lockdown has had on my wife is that we’ve had to cancel this year’s holidays.
• The only financial difference the lockdown has had on me is that I couldn’t take my wife to the restaurant for our wedding anniversary.
Otherwise, the lockdown hasn’t stopped us from spending e.g. since the lockdown:-
• My son has treated himself to a number of Blu-ray box-sets that was on his wish-list.
• My wife bought a new microwave online from our local retail store, and had it delivered e.g. online sales and clicks & collects only, as in-store shopping is currently banned.
• I’ve continued to buy DIY supplies from our local suppliers (click and collect), and since this week (when Gardening was finally added to the ‘essential services’ list by the Government), Gardening Supplies from one of our local Garden Centres.
Like you, I keep monthly accounts; I budget for the whole year, and reconcile the budgets monthly with my bank account.
The UK went into Lockdown on the 23rd March. And my own personal monthly expenditure for this year so far is:-
• Jan £1,246
• Feb £1,662
• March £868
• April £1,075
• May £1,126Arthur, my wife and i never looked at in house food expenses.
The month of April was kind of an experiment because my wife was sick, so i had to do all shopping alone and we had this lockdown with almost no travelling and limited partying, barbecueing. And i tried to pay all purchases without cash to find all bills on my online accounts. So numbers were fairly accurate. We already discussed that our electricity bill would go up because of intensive kitchen use.
The month of May is already void in this respect with all shops open, my wife going on "shopping therapy" with our grandchildren...
Arthur, as we may be able to make jokes in this Corona situation, most people in the US and other parts of the world have other problems. They can´t spend money they don´t have.My wife has a food store at the bottom of the garden where, before the pandemic she would buy food in bulk when it was on offer e.g. half price, or a third off etc., which was saving us over £400 a year, plus I grow all our own vegetables (except potatoes, other than first-early potatoes), and a lot of summer and autumn fruits, which saves us a further £400 a year on our food bill.
Before the pandemic my wife and son would normally do the weekly shopping, but since the pandemic we’ve switched to ordering our food from our local supermarkets weekly on-line and having it delivered; a practice which has become quite common in the UK in recent years as the delivery costs are usually nominal, and sometime ‘free delivery’.
In the initial weeks of the lockdown the supermarkets struggled to keep up with demand for on-line deliveries; because demand soared. However, to resolve the issue, ALL the rival Supermarkets in the UK have joined forces (to pull their resources) so that they now share each others staff, goods (food products) and transport, and hired extra staff and transport, to meet the high demands for home delivery.
For example, in the last two weeks my wife has placed her food shopping order on-line with Morrisons, and a significant amount of food Morrisons has sent us are branded products from their competitors such as the Sainsbury and Tesco Supermarkets etc., and both times the food has been delivered in a ‘hot dog’ van belonging to a hot-dog vendor who currently can’t do his own business because of the lockdown, but who is being hired by the supermarkets to make home deliveries for them.
Yes we are very fortune in Europe as our Governments in most EU Member States, and in the UK, have minimised the financial impact for many European citizens.
And I do feel sorry for citizens in other parts of the world, where things are far grimmer; especially the tens of millions of Americans who are not as lucky as most Europeans; and finding themselves suddenly out of work with little or no income.Interesting take on this virus from a man's point of view. Very enlightening. This corona virus has done several things here in the US. It has brought home to the younger families the importance of family time together.
As one young man told a TV reporter, "We'v eaten dinner as a family nearly every night since this virus began."
The other thing it has done is change the landscape for businesses in a very radical way. Employees were forced to adapt to lock down and stay at home and now they love working from home. Something employers all said couldn't be done.
The impact of this virus will be forever embedded in the minds of the Class of 2020. They are a very special generation who now has an experience unlike any other.
If this virus has done anything major, it is to force corrupt businesses to face the reality that the days of limitless cheating of customers and suppliers is over.
With more people staying at home, men and women are learning how to cut corners they might never have even considered when both were working.Eleanore, you are certainly right that this Corona mess changes the way of life, for the better or for the worse.
We have a big discussion going on about family violence and abuse of children and women during lockdown. They couldn´t ecape anywhere. Because of lockdown, the "Frauenhäuser", safe houses were closed, so women had no place to retreat with their children.
I even noticed this with the family of our daughter. They live close by. A lovely family, but after some weeks in lockdown every other day the parents had the urgent desire to leave their kids with us for a relax timeout. At first i thought it were the kids who wanted to come, but it was the wish of their parents as well.
.. a mans point of view.. interesting that you consider this enlightening. My comment is much more innocent, because my wife took early retirement and i am a privatus, running my businesses from home. So with children out of the house, long before Corona we enjoyed the experience of living together 24/7. Actually my only real issue with lockdown was travel restrictions. Otherwise we would have taken our RV and gotten on the road in April. I have to admit, pure luxury thinking.I was interested to read about how the Covid-19 lockdown has impacted on ‘family violence’ (Domestic Abuse) in Germany. It was briefly topical in the UK about six weeks back, but since then the UK Government has poured another £76 million into funding to tackle the issue; albeit less than half of what Charities were asking for.
There are plenty of news reports in the British news media of ‘Domestic Abuse’ soaring and doubling etc., but in delving deeper the actual figures being reported by the Charity Refuge, and by the Police, is closer to 25% increase (so I guess the true figure is somewhere between the two extremes being reported!); albeit, crime in general in the UK has fallen by 28% since the lockdown in March.
From the date of the lockdown on the 23rd March until mid-April in the UK, the rise in Domestic Abuse was a major issue; but since then charities, local governments and the police have been working together to offer support and advice to victims of ‘Domestic Abuse’ e.g. Local Governments have prioritised housing for domestic abuse victims, and hotels have offered hotel accommodation at cost.
FYI: Under British Law (which dates back over a century) Local Governments have a ‘Legal Obligation’ to provide ‘Social Housing’ (Council Houses) to the homeless; it doesn’t prevent people being homeless and sleeping rough on the streets, but generally those who do sleep rough on the streets tend to be those who refuse help e.g. drug addicts, alcoholics and the mentally ill etc. (a simplistic explanation, just to give a quick overview).
To meet their legal obligation of housing the homeless in Britain, Local Governments (Local Authorities aka Councils) build and maintain ‘Social Housing’ (Council Houses), then anyone who is homeless, who is housed in a Council House, who can’t afford to pay the rent, and local taxes (rates) e.g. unemployed or on a low income, are entitled to rent and rate rebates and other welfare benefits e.g. the Government pays their rent and rates for them etc.
However, in the 1980’s Margaret Thatcher (Conservative Prime Minister) changed the law, so that since then anyone living in a Council House now has the legal right to buy that house from the local government at market price, less all the rent they paid to-date e.g. benefits anyone originally housed in a Council House because they couldn’t afford private renting, but have since bettered themselves by getting a good job.
This change in the law has led to over half the Council Housing stock ending up in the ‘private housing market, and it makes it harder for local governments to meet their legal obligation of housing the homeless because they are now forever having to build new Council Houses to maintain their housing stock. Consequently, when people do become homeless, and they seek help from their local government, they are often put into temporary accommodation (including hotels) until a Council House becomes available for them; and statistically are recorded as ‘homeless’ while living in temporary accommodation.
Albeit, we benefitted from this change in the law in the 1980’s because although when we first married we bought a two bedroom terraced house, when a decade later we decided to move up the housing ladder to a three bedroom semi-detached we purchased an ex-council house, because at the time there was still a 'Social' stigma attached to living in an ex-council house, which supressed the market price, so we saved about 10% on the price of buying a larger house by buying an ex-council house. The ex-council house we bought (well-built with a large garden) was one of the first council houses built in Bristol, built in the 1930’s during the ‘Great Depression’ when homelessness was high due to the high levels of unemployment at the time.
One policy the Government was swift on at the start of the lockdown was to remove the homeless sleeping rough on the streets, off the streets and into temporary accommodation; most predominantly hotels. On the day of the lockdown, on the 23rd March, the announcement of the lockdown was not made until 8pm by Boris Johnson (with immediate effect, no warning). At that time, my son was in the city centre doing photography, so he was totally unaware that Britain had gone into lockdown, but he guessed something was happing because the police were out in force, along with local government officials rounding up all the homeless rough street sleepers (not that we have many in Bristol) and taking them to one of the local hotels; so rather than hanging around, he came straight back home to find out what was going on.
The concept of getting all the homeless off the streets of Britain, which the Government completed within the first three weeks of the lockdown, was to help to slow down the spread of the virus.
‘Family Quality Time’, in the evening in front of the TV, is a practice we had, even before the lockdown; because although my wife and I are both retired, it is one time of the day that all the family can be together e.g. even during normal times I’m usually out in the Garden or down in my workshop for most of the day, and my wife is either spending her time doing genealogy or sewing etc.
It’s interesting you should mention ‘homeworking’. It’s a topic I discussed at length with an American contact who lives in New York, and his view was similar to yours e.g. that he could never see American employers ever wanting people to work from home; reasons he quoted was a ‘lack of trust and lack of control etc.
However, flexible working has become increasingly common in the UK ever since its first introduction in 1974, and homeworking has been on the increase ever since we’ve had good Internet; so much so that in 2014 the Conservative Government introduced a new Law that gives ‘ALL’ employees the ‘Legal Right’ to request flexible working from their employer.
Consequently, by last year 12% of the British workforce were working from home; in fact for the last five years before I took early retirement I was working from home 3 days a week, and going into the office for just two days.
Currently, since the lockdown in the UK on the 23rd March, the percentage of the British workforce working from home has increased from 12% to 44%.
I know how sceptical American Companies have been about homeworking from my American contact; but in contrast, you might find the attitudes of British employers towards flexible working interesting (and perhaps encouraging) in these two videos:-
• Creating a flexible working culture at John Lewis Partnership (Retailer) and Ford UK (Car Manufacturer): https://youtu.be/2Qs0EL6JWD0
• A new work culture - flexibility working in The Virgin Group UK: https://youtu.be/V67nDvfNQV0
I also have not been restricted in any way by NJ's lockdown. And as a result of NJ people obeying these safety regulations, the numbers of infected and dying in NJ seems now to be slowly creeping downward.
That's good to hear, lets hope it stays that way.
Thanks for your feedback Ewent on Trump’s falling popularity; it comes as no great surprise considering how ‘insane’ Trump looks from across the pond.
Yep, the British Government ‘should know better’ in tackling epidemics as we’ve been preparing for it since 2009 e.g. SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) set up as a UK Government advisory body by the Labour (Socialist), and consisting of over 50 scientific and medical experts.
We also have Porton Down Science Park in Wiltshire; a top secret Government research and development laboratory set up by the UK Government during the 1st world war. It was Porton Down who recently verified that the covid-19 antibody test kit developed for the NHS by Sweden is 100% accurate and doesn’t give ‘false positive’ results.
Inside Porton Down (UK Government Secret Lab): https://youtu.be/E23KBPd6iHY
And the NHS (National Health Service) works in partnership with Universities throughout the UK for R&D (Research & Development).
Also, the British Government has comprehensive ‘Disaster Recovery’ strategy in the event of a ‘national crisis’. I was a volunteer in one of the ‘Disaster Recovery’ teams in the civil service before I took early retirement; so had a good opportunity to understand and appreciate it from the inside.
And UK Government Departments operate in accordance with PRINCE2 (Project Management).
Nevertheless, in spite of all our preparation and readiness, our Prime Minister (Boris Johnson) didn’t act decisively enough in the early days of the epidemic, and by his dithering, delayed putting the UK into lockdown by over a week with disastrous results e.g. the UK becoming the worst affected country in Europe due to delayed action right at the start of the epidemic.
However, since the lockdown the British Government has acted responsibly, and has used all the tools at its disposal to combat the epidemic; and now, as both new cases and the death rate are falling the British Government is easing up on the restriction with caution (being far more cautious than the USA).
Our British form of government, which your Constitution is base on, has its roots in the Magna Carta, signed by King John on 15th June in 1215.
Magna Carta and the emergence of Parliament (1215): https://youtu.be/4qj2vpp9Wf4
Yep, the mentality and ignorance of the ‘anti lockdown protesters’ in the USA is beyond belief; and their actions so counterproductive; it’s good to hear New Yorkers are taking a far more mature attitude than some in other States.The reason people in NY and NJ will never allow those kind of armed protesters is common sense. In 1993, there was the first terrorist attack on a US embassy building. This was followed by another attack on the British Embassy in NY.
By the time 9'/11 happened, NY and its neighboring states are now always on high alert.
This is something none of the red states have had to deal with.
My recollection of that awful day on 9/11 still brings me to tears. It was and remains the most horrific experience of my life.
I was not in NY but many of my neighbors worked in both towers. Some never came home.
Sadly so many of them were young parents with toddlers For almost 2 months the sight of the smoke from across the bay reminded us that we must never again allow anyone the right to threaten, intimidate or shove guns in our faces.
One man who worked in Tower One and barely escaped worked as an accountant across the hall after his business leased an office when theirs was incinerated. He never spoke and walked down the halls like a zombie.
These are things those Boogaloo Bois have never had to witness. But how their families see their marching in the streets armed with semi automatics and do not realize they are encouraging domestic terrorism, speaks volumes about their lack of parenting.
One of these morons beat up a store clerk because the store's policy was that masks were the rule.
The moron who did this claims he was using "martial law. I'm only glad he lives in a red state. If he pulled that here in NJ or NY, he'd get a prison sentence for deadly assault.It’s refreshing to hear from an American who’s so anti-gun. Gun ownership is illegal in the UK; even being in possession of a knife in public is a criminal offence that attracts a maximum sentence of 7 years prison. So across the pond, in Britain, we find it very bizarre, and beyond belief, that Americans are so protective, and sensitive, about their legal ‘rights’ to carry a gun under the American Constitution!
My view (being British) is that Amendment 2 is ‘only’ an Amendment. It’s not as if it’s the ‘original’ Constitution itself; and although it may have served its purpose at the time, it’s an Amendment that’s out-dated. Britain doesn’t have a ‘written’ Constitution, our Constitution (which is based on the Magna Carta of 1215) is unwritten, and is constantly evolving to keep up with the times. Albeit, with having an unwritten Constitution it makes it difficult for Governments to know exactly what the Constitution is, so it keeps the Courts busy whenever there’s a dispute over what is Constitutional!
One fundamental difference between British and American law is that in America it is perfectly legal for a homeowner to kill someone with a gun in their home as ‘self-defence’; whereas in the UK, the law is that you can only use ‘reasonable force’ in self-defence, and using a gun is not considered ‘reasonable force’; so in Britain, defending yourself with a gun in your own home is classified as murder.
Our worst experience with terrorism in Britain, which I remember well (as the IRA periodically made terrorist attacks in England), was the ‘Troubles’ in Northern Ireland between 1968 and 1998, when during that period more than 3,500 people were killed in the conflict, of whom 52% were civilians, 32% were the British Military and 16% were terrorist members from both sides of the conflict.
Fortunately Sinn Fein, the political wing of the IRA terrorists (Freedom Fighters) fighting for Irish Reunification signed a ‘Peace Treaty’ with the British Government in 1999, where the political wings from both sides of the conflict now ‘Power Share’ in the Northern Ireland Government.
The Peace Treaty (The Good Friday Agreement) since 1999 has held an uneasy peace in Northern Ireland; albeit that ‘Peace Treaty’ is currently under threat because of Brexit.I understand that in the western most rural states where it is necessary to protect livestock and family from dangerous animals guns may be the only answer.
Although, I must say I am not even so sure about that. When I spent 2 weeks in Alberta and British Columbia, I was astounded at how well Canadians learned to adapt humans to the heavily forested areas they live in.
At one point as we were driving along the Rockies toward Field BC, we stopped to have lunch we'd purchased before leaving the Diamond Buffalo Ranch in Sundre.
We parked at one of the roadside stops and I noticed there was a strange looking top on the large trash can. I asked my Canadian friend what it was and he said, it was a "bear proof" lid.
So here's me a farmer's daughter from Central NJ who has never seen a bear in her life amazed at the blase attitude.
My friend reminded me that bears have a right to exist and so Canada just makes sure no trash is left lying about and those lids can only be used by humans with opposible thumbs. Ask me how ignorant I felt.
I think if Trump is re-elected I will leave the US for the UK. I would love to live in the Cotswolds or Northumberland.
I've always favored all things British. I so admire how well ordered British minds are.Thanks for your feedback, I lived in the Cotswolds as a kid, a small village called Uley; and we occasionally make day trips to the Cotswolds as its only 25 miles from Bristol, where I now live. My maternal ancestors also happened to settle in the Uley area of the Cotswolds following the Norman Invasion in 1066, until the mid-19th century when they re-settled in Bristol.
The Cotswolds is most certainly one of the many beautiful places in Britain.
Uley (The village in the Cotswolds where I lived as a kid): https://youtu.be/NtO4QyXlECM
Please allow me to make some comments on Russia. Half of my family is Russian, so i have close contact and communication to relatives, friends and business partners in Russia.
By now, Russia has rising numbers of infected, only topped by the US. But death rate is remarkeably low compared to the US. Roughly 6% of the US numbers/ per capita. How come?
Is it organisation and management, quick and appropriate response? No, it is the usual "prekasy", often contradictory directives i have seen many times in Russia. With heavy support by modern IT, in the cities you need to get a QR-code badge to be allowed on the streets. What will old babushkas do without internet and smartphone?
So - what explains the difference in fatality rate? For some weeks rumors are out that it has to do with compulsory viccination programs in Russia. That goes many years back to Soviet times. Mandatory multiple vaccinations from early childhood seem to have impact on the fatality rate.
So i found this link: https://theprint.in/opinion/low-death-r … ia/422013/
(Apparently an Indian Webpage, certainly not mainstream, but at least in English)
In addition to the information provided in the link, i had a deeper look at the German Corona data. Until 1990 Germany was divided and because former GDR was best friend with the Soviet Union, the GDR had also adopted this compulsory vaccination program. Guess what:
The 5 east German states have a fatality rate per capita of less than 1/3 compared to west German states, and that is already fairly low.
I believe this is something worth to be investigated further.
As an old professor used to say about numbers and statistics: If you sit with one half of your ass on the oven and with the other half on an ice block, median temperature may be comfortable, but ...
Median values are good, but sometimes it is worth looking at the "ice block" and learn.Wow, thanks Chris.
I’d noticed the recent sudden dramatic rise in infections in Russia, and put it down to a combination of Russia being plagued with the virus much later than Europe (like the black death first swept across Europe before it reached Russia in the 13th century) e.g. with there being several weeks’ time lag between infection and deaths, that Russia is only at the start of the curve, and that the dramatic rise in deaths has yet to come; and deaths in Russia going unreported as being covid-19.
Therefore, if death rates in Russia remain low by the end of May your supposition is something worth bearing in mind.Arthur, i don´t think the Covid19 deaths are un- or underreported in Russia.
Same as in the US, this Corona mess is highly politicized. There is a fight for power going on between Moscow mayor Sobyanin and the administration around Mishustin and Putin. As Moscow accounts for roughly half of the infection numbers, Moscow mayor is accused for overcounting Corona to harm Putin and his administration. There is checking and rechecking and i think they are all quite careful with numbers.
After this Corona pandemic is under control, we shall probably see that former Comecon countries, former influence zone of the Soviet Union will have significantly lower fatality rate than Western world. Just speculating.Thanks for the feedback; it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Your post proves why in my high school days, my favorite authors were Russians. My uncle also was Russian. I don't judge all Russians as I would Putin and the Moscovites.
One of the things I admire most about the non Moscovite Russians is their spirit.
Russian history is rife with revolutions as you know. The US? Not so much. Perhaps, it is that Russian spirit that has forced many changes since the days of the Czars.I’ve met plenty of Chinese people in Britain, one family lives just a couple of doors up from us; and they are very nice people, very pro-western. However, I’ve only ever met one Russian in person, and listening to her was very educational and enlightening; in a positive way.
Same here happening countries read w.h.o report or my blog https://www.healthcareum.online
Over time you see that the US, Chili, Brazil are doing worse and worse. Both countries have a leader who denied the virus and did not act upon it. Not setting an example as wearing a facemask or social distancing. Not believing in science. That's a sad thing.
Do you really believe that Trump's bad example on face masks convinced millions of people to not wear one? Convinced them to gather in groups of thousands to party, protest and riot without a care in the world?
When small businesses opened up in violation of "guidelines" was it because Trump didn't wear a mask or because they were going broke?
Or did these things take place without ever considering whether Trump wore a mask in public or not?Do you think it is a coincidence that in both countries Brazil and the US, where their leaders trivialised COVID and did not set an example, are worst off?
I bet lots of hardcore Trump supporters are not wearing facemasks because the President isn’t doing either. You can read it on Hubpages yourself.It seems you are under the impression President Trump controlled any of the States mandates on COVID. He did not. It was up to each Governor to come up with what precautions they wanted to be enforced. They did ask the Federal Government for things they needed, and all was supplied as quickly as possible. I realize our opinions differ in regard to how we feel the crisis was handled. However, I must offer my opinion on whether or not Trump setting an example really matters.
It was clear Trump made up his mind from very early he was not going to wear a mask. he gave his reasoning over and over why he was not wearing a mask. No one seems to speak about that. They go to the negative without considering why he chose not to wear a mask.
He certainly is a man that may lean too far toward what he believes common sense. He certainly did not panic over the virus. he did say on many occasions it's a horrible China virus, but it will go away. In reality, he is being very truthful. It is horrible but it will go away. He listened to those that he felt were giving good solid information on the virus, he acted accordingly, as things did progress he took every measure to control the virus, and rebuild a National stockpile that was depleted.
One could say he should have known the stockpile was depleted. This could be said, he trusted the CDC to do their job, they did not...
I am weary of many putting blame on the president. He has done a good job. I would have hated to see what our previous two presidents would have done.
If you want to direct blame, have a good look at the Governors. They refused his advice, his help, yet now they make attempt to blame him for their very poor plans. The president was ready with everything these Governors asked for, and as quickly as humanly possible.
The testing was slow, and once again this was due to the poor action of the CDC getting the virus information needed to work on testing for an unknown virus. Tests needed to be researched and developed. Not sure where people think any Government has tests developed for a virus that was not yet born... It's ridiculous, Here is an article that might shed some light on what truly went wrong when it came to testing. Yes, the ball was dropped, and it was dropped by the CDC...
https://singularityhub.com/2020/03/18/o … ronavirus/I know and understand that Trump does not control the States mandates on COVID; that’s the same throughout the world e.g. Australia, Germany and UK etc.
However, where the USA does differ from countries like Australia, Germany and the UK is that unlike the USA, in these countries:-
• The different States (in the case of the UK Nations) work in co-operation with the National Government to fight a common enemy e.g. Covid-19, and
• The different political parties work together to fight a common enemy e.g. Covid-19.
In the UK Boris Johnson (British Conservative Prime Minster) sets the Regulations for England, in the fight against Covid-19, and the Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Ireland Governments have set similar Regulations for their own Nation (taking the lead from England) but with variations.
For examples:-
UK POLICY on FACEMASKS:
• England: Compulsory on public transport from 15th June, and in shops from 24th July.
• Scotland: Compulsory on public transport from 22nd June, and in shops from 10th July.
• Wales: Advisory Only.
• Northern Ireland: Compulsory on public transport from 10th July.
PUBS:-
• England: Opened on 4th July.
• Scotland: Opened on 15th July.
• Wales: To open on 3rd August.
• Northern Ireland: Opened on 3rd July, only if the pub also sells food.
Considering that Scotland and Wales are left-wing ‘Socialist’ Governments, it’s been amazing, and quite refreshing, in how supportive they’ve been in working together with the right-wing Conservative UK Government to fight the common enemy; Covid-19.
Trump may not have control over the States, but he does have ‘influence’, and as Leader of the Federal Government he should take the pandemic seriously, set a good example, and send out the ‘right’ messages; but he doesn’t. He’s in denial about the pandemic, sets a bad example by politicising ‘facemasks’, and sends out the ‘wrong’ messages by undermining the efforts of the CDC and using the pandemic as another excuse to attack China.
Where you say that “he did not panic over the virus” and that “it will go away” is the nub of the problem. He hasn’t taken the pandemic serious; he’s more interested in reopening the economy as quickly and as fully as possible, regardless to how many deaths of American citizens it causes in the process. And without taking the proper measures the virus will NOT go away; as is evident by the way the pandemic is now spiralling out of control in the USA.
Far from going away, the USA is now facing record numbers of infections (Now averaging over 65,000 new cases per day); and deaths are rapidly increasing again e.g. 997 people died of Covid-19 in the USA yesterday (15th July). Current projections are that around a quarter of million Americans will have died of Covid-19 related deaths by the end of October.
The Pandemic will not go away unless it’s taken seriously by the Federal and State Governments, and stiff measures are introduced across the whole of the USA to combat the pandemic; just as National and State Governments in Australia, Germany and the UK work together to co-ordinate their efforts to combat the spread of the virus. But unfortunately Trump is unwilling to be the Leader that America needs right now, to fight the pandemic, so the pandemic in the USA is out of control.
As regards testing; Boris screwed up the testing in the UK at first, and it took months for him to get it on track; and even now it’s not perfect but it is working more or less as it should. It wasn’t for the lack of trying; it was just incompetence on his part. So I do understand the difficulties in organising an effective testing programme, but you can’t tell me that Trump is supportive in the testing programme because on numerous occasions I’ve heard him declare that there’s too much testing, in his belief that the more people you test the more people you find infected. What he doesn’t understand is it’s not just the number of tests done, it’s the percentage of people tested who test positive that’s important. If that percentage is too high then you have a serious problem e.g. in the USA the percentage of those tested, who test positive, is now in excess of 20%; in the UK it’s less than 0.5%.
And it’s not just the testing, the ‘contact tracers’ need to know who’s infected so that they can find out who they’ve been in contact with, so that they can be contacted, isolated and tested. In the UK we now have 27,000 contact tracers. As of 18th June, there were only 37,110 contact tracers; which is inadequate, a minimum of 100,000 would be required in the USA; probably at least three times that number now, that the virus is out of control.Trump is besides being the president, an influencer. And people copy his actions. If Trump is not taking the pandemic seriously, they won't. And if he is not wearing a facemask in public, many of his followers won't do so either. This is the irresponsible behaviour of an influencer. Which leads to the irresponsible behaviour of his followers.
I'm not talking about politics. Or a countrywide organisation of the fight against this pandemic. I'm simply addressing the behaviour of a statesman. Somebody who should set an example and should be above the parties in times of emergencies.
You see people on HubPages proudly bragging about not wearing a facemask. Because that's the patriotic thing to do blablabla.
And about the COVID cases. It's still rising. A simple Google statistic will show you. I'm sorry.
As I stated there has been an uptick in cases mainly in three states out of 50. The death toll in the majority of our states is very low. Most in single digits each day.
We have different views on what we respect in Government representatives I prefer someone that gives an opinion and is unafraid to do so... Just never cared for anything that appears phony. In my opinion, these kinds of politicians give the crowd what they may want to hear, not what they need to hear. Seems many placate to promote groupthink. Just my opinion, as you can see I think out of the box. I can't stand to be placated.
I have said I do not wear a mask if I am able to use social distancing. I wear a mask if I am in a close contact situation. Science just does not support wearing a mask in most incidences. It is very close contact it does have some value in decreasing spread if worn by a person that is contagious. It also appears there is thought that droplets stay in the air in closed spaces for a period of time so at this point it's wise to wear a mask if one needs to be in a closed space for any length of time.
With the numbers so low in Michigan and if they hold another week, I will no longer wear a mask. If the death rate increases I will resume wearing a mask. I have no intension of wearing a mask if stats stay low. Just not going to adopt wearing a mask without a good reason."I prefer someone that gives an opinion and is unafraid to do so... "
Stalin had an opinion too and wasn't afraid to give it!
or as Keanu Reeves would phrase it:
I DON´T WANT AN OPINION. I WANT ROOMSERVICE!!!
COVID is a science debate. to beat COVID opinions go into the dustbin. As when you talk science, opinions don't matter. Only facts.
And if the president gives his opinion of using chlorine dioxide, then this is a dangerous opinion. As people will start to buy chlorine dioxide, because as said, Trump is an influencer. Opinions can kill, even if they are made with the best intentions.So obviously we have really different thought processes. We will have to agree to disagree.
I guess so.
But I definitely do agree with you that if you walk outside you don't need a mask. And it's only if you are close to somebody or inside that, you have to wear them.
I went recently to a concert and we had to go through a temperature check, clean our hands and wear a mask. And with three empty seats between each person. The concert was great, but this definitely should not be the future.It sounds as if they handled the concert in the very best way they could. I will share a story with you. The other day a friend and I got into a spat. She posted a comment on Facebook the gave a long version of how at her grandson's baseball game she was the only one in the stands that had a mask on, she said all were sitting close-talking laughing, and that it made her furious. I commented that many when they are outside even in a close situation just won't wear a mask. I told her I don't wear a mask as a rule outside unless I am in a situation of being close to someone, and that I practice distancing. She became very mad at me and told me I should follow the rules and that I am making myself dangerous to those around me.
Here is where it gets good... I asked her --- you do remember you asked me to come to meet you at the game, and she said yes.
I shared why I did not attend. I explained since the outbreak of the virus I have not attended anywhere I knew there would be a large crowd. I reminded her that she continued to have her hair stylist to her home, traveled, and never missed one of her grandchildren's games, even had dinner parties. I told her don't judge others, because she just has no room to do so. She was not happy with me. But later that evening called me and we made amends.
I explained it was not me that was a danger to others it was actually her, due to being around so many people almost daily, even with her mask on. I explained to her social distancing is the very best way to really not get the virus.
In the next weeks, I will watch the stats if I see a bit of a breather I will resume my life as normal, if not I will stay out of crowds, social distance, and wear a mask if I have to be in any close quarters with anyone. I won't let a virus rule my life, but I will be responsible if the virus is on the rise.
Being a nurse social distancing was part of my job if caring for isolation Pt. it has done me well for 20 some years. Hopefully, it will continue to work well with COCVID.
It won't be the future, we will get a vaccine and suitable meds to cut down on the problems the virus causes. It will take a bit of time, but it will come. Plus we have the chance of the virus fizzling in the future. We just need to take it as it comes for a bit. Hopefully, it will become a memory sooner rather than later.Thanks for that Sharlee, if everyone in the USA was as responsible as you in observing ‘social distancing’ sensibly, and wearing a mask when appropriate, then it would certainly help to reduce the spread of the virus there.
The UK went into ‘full’ lockdown on the 23rd March, which has been slowly eased (by small fortnightly steps) since the 1st June. So that as from last weekend (Saturday 11th July), apart from nightclubs and conference halls e.g. cinemas and theatres etc., the UK economy is now almost back to normal; subject to the strict social distancing rules and regulations on wearing masks.
Last Saturday (11th July) was the first time I’ve been out since the lockdown back in March. I haven’t needed to go out during the lockdown because we’ve had all our food and DIY supplies delivered; so there’s been no reason to go out shopping, and during the pandemic ‘socialising’ was highly restricted in the UK anyway e.g. grandparents prohibited from meeting grandchildren during most of the lockdown.
My venture out on Saturday was to take a 20 minute walk to my local bank; and while out I took the opportunity to film the local high street e.g. in normal times its buzzing with people, but even now with the shops reopened, the British people are still quite cautious in going out so the streets are still relatively quiet.
Kingswood, Bristol High Street Shops New Norm: Covid-19 Lockdown Eased UK: https://youtu.be/vVTBOoZAEtQThanks for sharing the story, which indeed shows a dilemma.
I completely agree with you there. What I notice around me is that there is a lot of ignorance about the function of a mask and how the virus spreads. I see a lot of people walking in the street. (mainly children and elderly people.) walking alone with a mask on. I think the education by the local government is important here. Just like proper sex education for example. Open, science-based, proper, and frank. Not advise based upon the "heard it through the grapevine" advise
Every city and village is effected differently and should act according to the local situation. To stop it the best is absolutely to avoid mass gatherings.
Still, I fear a bit for the future. Not for COVID, or other viruses. But I fear for the "temporary" rules and regulations that governments take. Like the idea for a COVID app for example. showing you who has or had COVID. (like without such an app you will not be allowed to enter a shopping center....just a scenario that could happen) An app like this is creating a "Big Brother is watching you" society. The question is, Is there any privacy left? Perhaps privacy is already a romantic idea of the past.I think the virus will be around for a time. It could fizzle but that is unlikely. I think it best to make the rules suit the areas and the outbreaks as they come, and most likely will come in waves. Sort of a auto-dial back system while we have to live with the virus. We can't close our communities for a year or more. Many areas in Michigan did not have even one case, while our cities had an abundance of cases.
IT's a fine line, but we need to walk it to get some normality back into our lives every chance we get. Michigan is trying the dial back method, and being split into regions. We had a bit of a breakout up north so many businesses got new rules. Bars were reclosed. I live near our biggest city, and we are doing well in our region (a suburb outside Detroit). The auto plants reopened a month ago, and have had very little problems.
We will soon be coming onto fall here, and we will have our yearly flu season start. Michigan always has high numbers during the yearly flu. I hope this year more will consider getting the flu shot.Yes, it's a balance. How many help and resources are you going to give to fight the virus. A lot of people will have huge problems or die because of a lack of capacity in hospitals. Thousands of women for instance won't have their yearly breast cancer check, with consequences for some... Drug edicts who can't be helped, domestic violence. Just a few things out of the top of my head.
You read the figures in the newspapers about number of deaths and infected people. But the damage is far bigger than these numbers. So many people are suddenly without a job. And the crisis has just begun.
I'm very lucky to live on the countryside in Spain, almost self-sufficient. But I have friends living in Valencia who had a hard time. And still have. Single mums, people in the music and dance industry.
Spain was/is hit hard (especially in the neglected care homes and homes for the elderly.) It's a society where personal space is smaller, it's much more physical than the Northern European countries like the UK and The Netherlands and Germany. This is great in normal times, but during an epidemy, it's disastrous behaviour.... Everybody is now very cautious. And that's good. Better safe than sorry.
But I hope that after a while we can hug again. As it's a grim society if we can't.I agree with all you stated. We have done our best to delete a virus, some have done better than others. Numbers are showing upticks in three of our states, and the overall death rate is slowing. It is time we realize this battle will take a while. many of us are just not willing to fold and are ready to cautiously move slowly back into a bit of normalcy. Some are so very scared, and that's Ok. Everyone should reenter their normal lives at their own pace. But, one thing is clear we must move on before this virus does damage that is unrepairable for many.
Sharlee, where you say “I think it best to make the rules suit the areas and the outbreaks as they come……” Yes definitely: But only once a ‘Nation’ has the pandemic under control (which is true for Michigan, but not true for the USA); then localised control of outbreaks is appropriate.
In this respect, now that the pandemic is under control across Europe, European countries have now switched to this localised approach to stamping out localised flare-ups (as they occur). This localised approach being called the ‘Whack-a-Mole’ policy.
In the UK, although the pandemic is currently well under control e.g. both new infections and deaths are low and decreasing by the week, there are nevertheless still over 100 local outbreaks of the virus which are swiftly stamped on by the Government to prevent further spread; as highlighted in the video below.
Over 100 local lockdowns a week in the UK in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic https://youtu.be/arrCgV0H1SUYes, seeing that we have three major states that are showing sizable spikes in cases and deaths it would be wise for those states to dial back. It seems odd that some of the states that really showed very low infection rates through the worst of the pandemic now are showing case increases, and continue to have a very low death rate. It just seems the virus has is spreading quickly to a younger adult, and they are tolerating the virus much better.
In Michigan, the crisis is being handled in Zones. The minute cases go up even just a bit, the mandates are put back in place quickly, and lifted when stats improve. Masks are mandated in Michigan to be worn when entering any business or closed building. Many businesses are only allowed a certain number in the building at a time. We still have Gyms, sports, casinos closed. Any event that would draw a crowd even if the outside has been canceled. One does not have to wear a mask outside unless you can't social distance. In my community, all stores and businesses enforce the mask rule.
The Governor did open the beaches, one must be 19 feet apart. it appears people are following that request at our metro beaches, due to having. park officers that do enforce the rule.
Yep Michigan has handled the pandemic well, and has been credited in doing so on the TV News.
However, we are still at odds in our opinion regarding your comment:-
“It seems odd that some of the states that really showed very low infection rates through the worst of the pandemic now are showing case increases, and continue to have a very low death rate. It just seems the virus has is spreading quickly to a younger adult, and they are tolerating the virus much better.”
It’s not odd; it was predicted by the experts: And it’s something I’ve given warnings about in these forums for the past two months.
The Guidance by WHO, which most countries (including the UK) followed, was for countries to:-
1. Wait for at least 14 consecutive days after the peak had been passed, where new infections and deaths constantly fell, before attempting to relax the lockdown.
2. After the 14 days, couple any easing of the restrictions on the lockdown with a programme of mass testing, where results are returned within 24 hours, to help the ‘contact tracers’ do their job, and
3. Have sufficient ‘contact tracers’ to stem the flow of any flare-up of infections due to the easing of the lockdown.
Countries who followed these three simple steps, including those who were badly hit by the virus e.g. Spain, Italy and the UK, have all now successfully come out the other side of the pandemic, and have largely reopened their economies again.
However, the USA did NOT follow these three simple steps. The USA started to ease the restrictions not 14 days after the peak had passed, but only 7 days (far too early). The USA, like the UK had numerous problems with mass testing initially. The UK has largely now sorted those problems out, but in many States in the USA, the test results are taking far too long to come back: Mainly because the USA never did get the pandemic under control, because it started to reopen its economy too soon. Also, as stated by the CDC the USA does not have enough ‘contract tracers’. For a country the size of the USA a minimum of 100,000 ‘contact tracers’ are required: As of 18th June, the USA only had 37,110 contact tracers; the UK (a much smaller country) has 27,000 contact tracers.
So in answer to your comment, the States that had low infection rates when New York was taking the brunt of the pandemic were just too arrogant, and reopened their economies far too soon, coupled with the fact that the young adults feel immune, and therefore didn’t ‘social distance’. Therefore, when the pubs reopened in those States it was a recipe for disaster.
I don’t know how you can say that the death rates in those Southern States are still very low, when over the last couple of weeks the death toll has doubled, with many hospitals at full capacity, and ICU units at full capacity in a number of hospitals in the Southern States.
Yes the virus has been spreading quickly to the younger adults, who are more tolerant to the virus, because it’s the younger adults who have been ignoring ‘social distancing’. But, if you’ve been following recent developments, the older generations are slowly beginning to become affected (the age groups more prone to death from the virus), because the younger adults are passing the virus onto their parents and grandparents. So you can be sure that in the Southern States, the death toll hasn’t reached its peak yet.
Also, it’s not just the three worst affected States; the virus is also rapidly increasing in most Southern and Western States, about 37 States in total. Albeit the current infections may still be relatively low in those other States, it is of concern because we all should know by now how quickly the virus can spread, once the rate of infection (The R Value) starts rising. So what you’ve seen in the three States in recent weeks could easily become the norm in the other Southern and Western States; and from there, cross contamination to the Northern States would be difficult to prevent.
So now isn’t the time to be complacent.
You may be pleased to hear that over the last couple of weeks Michigan and New York are two States that have been praised on the TV News for the way in which they’ve handled the Covid-19 pandemic.
For correctness, out of the 50 States, the infection rate is falling in ONLY 2 or 3 of those States; albeit it’s only currently just three States where infections are very high and out of control. However, that is no reason to be complacent because State boundaries is no barrier to the virus, and it is also highly infectious and can flare up quickly from just a few infected people.
One aspect of your viewpoint which I am having trouble in understanding is that you seem to talk about Michigan as if it was a country (separate from the rest of the USA), and that the Southern States is in another part of the world?
Where I live, in Bristol specifically, and the South West of England in general, largely escaped the pandemic e.g. the UK was placed into lockdown before the virus had a chance to spread to the South West in any great number. However, I’m not complacent because I don’t view the pandemic as a local issue, but as a ‘national’ issue; and we see in the UK and across Europe how rapidly the virus can spread from just ‘one’ infected person, if left unchecked and isn’t dealt with swiftly.
It’s because of the last point above, that what’s important isn’t just the percentage of people infected by also the rate of infection; the ‘R’ factor. The natural ‘R’ (rate of infection) of Covid-19 is ‘3’ e.g. every infected person will infect three other people, and those three people in turn will each infect three more people e.g. 9 infected people who will then go on and infect 27 people, 83; 243; 729; 2,187; 6,561; 19,683; 59,049; 177,147; half a million, 1.5 million; 5 million, and so on.
A prime example of the above is a farm in Herefordshire, England where from just one infected farm worker 73 of the 200 vegetable pickers quickly became infected with Covid-19. The UK Government put the farm into lockdown (quarantine) on the 12th July e.g. the 200 farm workers are now living in temporary accommodation (mobile homes) to isolate them from the rest of the UK, and food is being ferried into them. Since the 12th July (just 5 days) a further 20 of the 200 farm workers have now contracted the virus e.g. 93 of the 200 are now infected; and all within just weeks, which highlights how quickly just a few infected people can become many in such a short time period.
Coronavirus UK: Herefordshire farm in lockdown after 73 Covid-19 cases:
https://youtu.be/wPNxAbCItz4
That’s why although the percentage of infected people in the UK is extremely small compared to the USA e.g. less than 0.5% in the UK compared to over 10% in the USA, the UK Government is acting swiftly with tough measures to keep the rate of infection (‘R’) below ‘1’. It doesn’t matter how few people are infected, if the ‘R’ factor is above ‘1’ then the infection is on the increase (which is bad news), whereas if the ‘R’ factor is below ‘1’ then the infection is decreasing (which is good news). Currently the ‘R’ rate in the UK is between 0.7 and 0.9; whereas in the USA (as a whole) it’s obviously well above 1. And although Michigan is steady at the moment, there is the real risk that the virus will spread from the other States to Michigan; especially if for example people from Michigan visit Disney World in Florida, and bring back the infection from Florida. Yes, Disney World has taken good precautions (once you are inside the park), but many people from other States visiting Disney World are not going to just drive there, they are going to stop off in Florida itself (which is now highly infectious) for petrol, a meal in a restaurant, shopping, sightseeing, and maybe stay overnight in hotel accommodation etc.!!!!
As regards your comment to different view on what we respect in Government representatives: In normal times, yes, who we do and don’t support, and why, is a personal, political, choice.
However, during a crisis e.g. war, pandemics, natural disasters etc., then that is the time to put politics to one side and unite the nation in a common cause. That is what has happened in most countries around the world: For example in the UK ‘ALL’ the political parties have ‘united’ and given their full support to the Government, just as the British people have ‘united’ in their support for the UK Government in fighting the pandemic (regardless to politics). Whereas in the USA Trump has made the pandemic political and has divided the nation; which is counterproductive, and is costing lives.
Yes, Trump’s bad example on face masks has convinced millions of people to not wear one; in the USA facemasks has become politicised.
Trump has constantly downplayed the pandemic, often been in denial that there is an issue, and frequently sends wrong messages. So it’s no wonder that many of Trump’s supporters believe him and consequently don’t social distance and don’t wear masks in large enclosed spaces; prime examples being his rallies where masks were not mandatory and no attempt to social distance e.g. Tulsa rally on 20th June.
Governments, and Government Leaders, do have their followers, so the attitude of Governments and Government Leaders have towards the pandemic is going to have a profound effect on the attitude of their followers (especially the hard core followers). Plus, Governments and Government Leaders can sway public opinion by their presentation of a situation, and by their actions; even people who didn’t vote for that Government or Government Leader can be influenced by what messages the Government/Government Leader gives, and by the way those messages are presented.
Therefore, in countries where Governments and Government Leaders have taken the pandemic seriously, and issued ‘Advice’, ‘Guidance’, and ‘Regulations’ to help minimise the spread of the pandemic, the General Public at large have generally been supportive of their Governments/Government Leaders in the fight against Covid-19 (even if they didn’t vote for that Government). While, in the USA Trump has, by his words, attitude, and actions, consistently downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic; and by doing so, sends the wrong message to the American Public, with the consequent that many Americans themselves don’t take the pandemic serious.
Trump didn’t discourage the protests by the far right against the economic lockdown; but he certainly didn’t like the BLM protests.
I wasn’t aware that small businesses in the USA did open up (in any great number) in the USA in violation of ‘Guidelines’! Although I can understand the frustration faced by small businesses, especially when they are at risk of going broke; a problem that’s not just unique to the USA, but one which has been faced by small businesses worldwide. However, in most countries the public and businesses have buckled-down and accepted what must be done to fight the pandemic e.g. in most cases a ‘full economic shutdown’ of all non-essential business, for as long as it takes.
In the UK Pubs & Restaurants (along with ALL ‘non-essential’ businesses) were closed by the Government on the 23rd March, and were only allowed to reopen again in England on the 4th July (almost four months out of business); and then only allowed to reopen provided they adhere to the strict Guidelines laid-down by the Government, which includes taking contact details of every customer at the door, as they enter the premises. Of the 60,000 pubs in England, three had to close again within 48 hours because people who had tested positive for covid-19 had visited those pubs; so those three pubs had to close, and the lists of customers contacts given to the ‘contact tracers’ so that they can do their job.
Three pubs shut due to coronavirus cases just 48 hours after reopening on 4th July: https://youtu.be/S40vU7Nng1E
In the UK Retail shops were allowed to re-open again on the 15th June; just over two-weeks before the pubs were allowed to reopen. Although, even now nightclubs are still not allowed to reopen in the UK, and no indication as to when they may be allowed to open again; many will go bankrupt, but you don’t the big outcry from small businesses like the pubs and nightclubs in the UK, because although it’s their livelihood they do know that the action the British Government has taken is necessary. Nightclubs is one area where I do have personal knowledge in that, as a professional photographer, it’s where my son earns the bulk of his income, so he is in close regular contact with the owners of the nightclubs in Bristol where he normally works: Albeit, they are to remain closed until the Government says otherwise, whenever that maybe?
The point is, to effectively combat the virus, a country needs a strong Government Leadership to fight the pandemic; and Trump is not providing that strong Leadership in support of fighting the pandemic.
Ongoing pandemic for half a year:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir … -1.5057041
Not much to add...Found this jewel in a German newspaper. Headline: Embarrassing..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geOXkVWBc58
(Minute 45..) Apparently he really said this about the Spanish flu. If all people would have known, nobody needed to start WWII. All soldiers were sick. And .. Spanish flu in 1917???
Unbelieveable. How come a president in office is so little educated? And he openly displays his ignorance in public. No wonder why the the US is in this dire situation. Even if he would listen to experts, he wouldn´t know how to interpret the advice.
The WH staff can´t be that dumb. So he must have ranted without script.Yep I know; it’s unbelievable, and it’s amazing how many tens of millions of Americans actually believe what he says! Satire script writers couldn’t do a better job, because the whole situation in the USA is stranger than ‘fiction’.
When you mention government, I'm sure you had the USA government specific in mind. Now, how about Rivers States government right here in Nigeria? Generally, covid-19 statistic in Nigeria is mingle with misinformation initially. Nigeria could not said to be well prepared pre-pandemic. When the very first.Italian strike, all his contacts initially disappeared but were later round up. Is it like that there in USA? The markets were beginning to open up full circle latest last week!
This forum was intended for each person to reflect on their own Government, and invariably make comparisons between how their own Government is handling the pandemic with other Governments, which often includes the USA as a show case of what not to do.
And so we are almost a half year on the road with COVID-19.
A second wave is starting and you I have the idea that lot's of countries have prepared themselves terribly for the second wave. No excuses, you saw it comming for months.
Testing, testing testing. It is one of the most important things. As testing means freedom. The more you know the more you can do. If you know your test is negative you feel more sure about yourself and what you can do. If you are positive (and there are a lot of asymptomatic cases) then you know where you're at and can act accordingly.
The Netherlands made huge mistakes.
The biggest one is that all the testing labs in The Netherlands are small but highly qualified labs. They can do the tests perfectly, but only in small quantities. Which is fine in normal circumstances. But not during a huge epidemic like today.
Germany has huge and fast testing labs that can handle bulks of testing. And they offered help to The Netherlands in April. But the Dutch government wanted to protect the small testing labs and refused. In other words, thousands of people that should be tested never got the chance. And testing on a large scale means freedom of movement and business. It saves lives and stress.
The COVID-19 cases in The Netherlands are rising rapidly now during the second wave. Something that could have been prevented if the government had accepted the help from German companies at the beginning of this year.
It shows that politics and protectionism are chosen in The Netherlands above the welfare and freedom of the people.Yep, since almost dying from Covid-19 in April Boris Johnson, our Prime Minister, in the UK has been committed to mass testing, and ‘contract tracers’ as an ultimate goal, until such time that a vaccine is rolled out to the mass populous.
He hasn’t made a very good job of it, because of logistic and other reasons, but achievements have been made, and steady progress is being made. The UK Government’s target in May was for 100,000 tests a day, and to steadily increase testing capacity over time; the target being 200,000 by June, 300,000 by September and half a million tests a day by October.
By and large the UK Government had been meeting its target (with a struggle) e.g. up until the end of August (up to 300,000 tests a day) 97.5% of tests results were being returned within 24 hours. However, from September, because of a dramatic increase in demand for testing from the public, it’s temporally slipped to just 33% of tests results being returned with 24 hours; an embarrassment which the Government is working on to resolve, and which should be rectified by the end of September.
Boris’s goal is to use the New ‘Saliva’ 20 minute tests (which have a reliability of 98% accuracy) as an ultimate tool to be able to test 10 million people a day (a third of the UK population each day); so as to give the ‘Freedom’ that you mention above. Currently, there are three separate trials (pilot schemes) being tried in three different towns in England, using three different 20-minute saliva test kits (all manufactured in the UK); with the intention that one of kits (if the trials are successful) to be rolled out nationwide; possibly early next year.
Below: In full: Boris Johnson's coronavirus address to the nation (if only Trump addressed the American people in a similar manner then perhaps there would be fewer deaths in the USA?)
https://youtu.be/uBtK538BAGUThis is indeed hot welcome news. I mean the 20 minutes saliva test. Formerly, Nigeria, was a friend of Great Britain, and practice the Parliamentary system of government. But Nigeria, derailed to adopting and experimenting with the American presidential system of government. America and other western nations has seen that Nigerian politicians seems to abuse the system with impunity. Nigeria could not at present be proud to have had ask any economic package from the West. Much less health package for covid-19. It was known that President Muhammadu Buhari went to China for $100 milllion loan, years ago for rail development. But during the covid crisis, some Chinese medical personnels were thought to have been in Nigeria to offer help. But to what extend, it is not fully underrtand...
No democracy is perfect, but certainly I think many of the EU countries are moving in the right direction with ‘Proportional Representation; the UK at a much slower pace e.g. we now have Proportional Representation for the Mayoral Elections in the UK (one small step….).
Also, in Scotland and Wales the voting age has been reduced to 16, giving the younger generation a voice in politics; and their future.But does the presidential system of government practice the "proportional representative"? Great Britain has a flexible constitution, an unwritten constitution where changes is obtainable within the desired peroid.
Across Europe, and in the UK, we have a multi-party system e.g. many different political parties. For example in the UK the major political parties include:-
• Conservative (right wing Capitalist)
• Labour (left wing Socialist)
• Liberal Democrats (Centralist)
• SNP (Scottish National Party) (Socialists)
• Plaid Cymru (Socialists)
• Green Party (left wing)
So in the UK Proportional Representation would be far more democratic, as it is across the rest of Europe. Unfortunately the USA is just a two party system (Republican or Democrats) so it’s just an either or choice; so Presidential or not, in a two party system like the USA proportional representation would seem pointless.
Yes the UK has an ‘unwritten’ Constitution, which is forever evolving. Why Americans are so sensitive about keeping their Constitution set in stone (rather than allowing it to evolve with the times) e.g. ‘Amendment 2’, I shall never understand."Why Americans are so sensitive about keeping their Constitution set in stone (rather than allowing it to evolve with the times) e.g. ‘Amendment 2’, I shall never understand."
Perhaps Americans view your constantly changing base (your "constitution"), subject to the whims of any person or party currently in power, as simply twisting with any small breeze that happens They prefer a solid base, relatively unchanging but with the ability to modify to meet truly changed circumstances rather than just the hot air from the current politician.
Our current uproar over the Supreme Court nominee is a case in point; when the current president can change the legal system, and thereby the entire thrust of important philosophies and events, simply because they are the one in power for the moment, it brings with it a great deal of ire, and changes entire industries for no more reason than that a single office is held by a different party now. Tomorrow it will swing back, but for the next few years everything must change - doesn't make a lot of sense in that light.Maybe the British Constitution is too fluid; and the USA Constitution too rigid?
Touching on a touchy subject for Americans I was thinking more along the line of Americans defending the right to own guns because it’s in the Constitution, rather than focusing on whether in this day and age gun ownership is morally right e.g. at the time it was added to the American Constitution there was good cause to own guns, but in this day and age I would have hoped times would have changed, and that America was more civilised and less violent? I know (from previous heated discussions) I’m giving the European perspective, and the American perspective is different.
As regards the Supreme Court nominee, it’s something which I haven’t yet got my head around e.g. the USA system is so alien to the British system that it’s confusing to me, I’ve yet to understand its complexities; but from across the pond it does come across as ‘dirty politics’!!!
As regards the British Constitution, which has its roots in the Magna Carta of 1215; it may be unwritten, which makes it difficult for anyone to fully understand it, including Governments. However, generally, most people know and understand the basics, and contrary to how it seems, the British Constitution is NOT “subject to the whims of any person or party currently in power”, and they can’t “simply twist it with any small breeze that happens”.
In the first instance, the person with the most authority in interpreting the British Constitution is the Speaker of the House of Commons. The Speaker being an MP elected by all MPs in the House of Commons, and once selected he/she has a duty (under the Constitution) to be politically neutral.
Ultimately, in the event of a dispute over whether something is Constitutional or not, then the Supreme Court has the final say. Judges of the Supreme Court in the UK are appointed by The Queen by the issue of letters patent, on the advice of the Prime Minister, to whom a name is recommended by a special selection commission. Select Committees in the UK are made up of a representation of the House of Commons (MPs from all political parties). So ultimately it’s the House of Commons who select the Supreme Court Judges. There are 12 Judges, but to avoid a tie, all cases are heard by a panel containing an odd number of justices, usually 5 (a maximum of 11 on large cases).
A prime example of how the British Constitution can evolve is the ‘Salisbury Convention’ of 1948.
In the aftermath of the 2nd world war Labour (Socialists) won a landslide victory in the 1945 General Election. At that time the House of Lords was made up predominantly of Conservative (Capitalist) Peers.
Therefore, in 1948, when the Socialist Labour Government came to pushing its Socialist programme through Parliament e.g. the Welfare State and the NHS the unelected Peers in the House of Lords, being predominately Conservatives naturally and vehemently opposed those Socialist reforms.
However, Lord Salisbury (Conservative), the Leader of the House of Lords, in his wisdom, argued with his fellow peers that it would be immoral for an ‘unelected’ upper chamber to block the ‘will of the people’; and as the ‘will of the people’ was for ‘Socialist Reforms’ e.g. it was in the election manifesto of the Labour Party, then the House of Lords should allow the ‘will of the people’.
Consequently the ‘Salisbury Convention’ has since 1948 become part of the British Constitution e.g. the unelected House of Lords are constitutionally bound to pass any Legislation by the elected Government in the House of Commons; provided that Legislation is based on the Government’s Election Manifesto. Anything the elected Government tries to push through Parliament which was not in their Election Manifesto is fair game in the House of Lords e.g. the House of Lords can reject it (block it) if they so wish.Nathanille, do you actually mean that if any will of the people is not in the political party elected manifesto, the unelect upper house play ball with it? Thanks. Anyway, the Magna Carta and the British Constitution are interesting study.
For Clarity:-
• The Lower Chamber (House of Commons) is elected by the people.
• The Upper Chamber (House of Lords) is unelected.
The House of Lords is made up of 661 life peers, 92 hereditary peers and 26 Bishops; none elected, and all sit in the House of Lords for life.
The House of Commons is made up of 650 elected MPs (Members of Parliament); all elected by the people in the General Election.
For Legislation to become Law it has to be approved by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
During a General Election each political party set out its policies in their Election Manifesto (for all to read). The winning party in a General Election e.g. the political party who wins the most seats (if they win the majority of seats) form the Government in the House of Commons.
It’s under these circumstances that what’s in the Election Manifesto of the winning party is considered to be ‘The Will of The People”. Therefore, under the Salisbury Convention the House of Lords (not elected, but appointed for life) respect the ‘Will of The People’ e.g. they will not block Legislation by the elected party provided that Legislation was policy published in the elected party’s Election Manifesto.
So in answer to your question: Yes the unelected Lords (in the House of Lords) do play ball, and do not block what’s in the ‘Election Manifesto’ of the political Party in the House of Commons who wins the General Election, because that is seen as ‘The Will of the People’.Every aspect of the question is quit clear. Still very interesting and enlightening. Initially in the Nigerian Parliamentary, the Upper House is appointed by the Governor-General from local establish chiefs. The Lower House is elected via, general election. I like the Parliamentary system as it best suits the Nigerian climate. Seriously, unless the 'immunity' clause is remove from the Nigerian Constitution, corruption will still win the day.
Yes, the ‘immunity clause’ in the Nigerian Constitution does sound as if it invites corruption. Bribery and corruption is taken very seriously in the British political system; with lots of safeguards against it and stiff penalties. So consequently bribery and corruption is very rare in the UK.
However, in our English Parliamentary system we do have ‘Parliamentary Privileges’ that has its roots in the English Civil War (1542-1651) e.g. the Bill of Rights 1689 which states “the freedom of speech and debates or proceedings in parliament ought not to be impeached or questioned in any court or place out of Parliament".
This Parliamentary privilege grants certain legal immunities for Members of both Houses (House of Commons & House of Lords) to allow them to perform their duties without interference from outside of Parliament.
It allows for:-
1. Freedom of speech; (members speaking in Parliament are not liable for defamation), and
2. Freedom from arrest in civil matters
Such ‘Freedoms’ allows members of the House of Lords and House of Commons to speak freely during ordinary parliamentary proceedings without fear of legal action on the grounds of slander, contempt of court or breaching the Official Secrets Act.
However, under the British Constitution, a consequence (price) for the privilege of free speech is MPs and Lords in Parliament are forbidden from uttering certain words, or implying that another member is lying. This is known as ‘Unparliamentarily Language’ and if a politician breaches these rules e.g. use unparliamentarily language then he/she can be suspended or even expelled from Parliament.
However, the ‘Parliamentary Privileges’ do not extend to the national Governments in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
Update Germany October:
For the first time since June the daily Covid deaths was in the 1% range of natural mortality. The number of active cases (46.000) is at the level of mid April.
Having said this the overall Covid outcome mortality is constant for months at 0,4 to 0,5% (take 2 week deaths and divide by 2 week average of active cases). I choose 2 weeks because that is what most Covid cases need to peak.
This is the same number as in the US and Italy. Seems to be a universal denominator for countries of similar economic development. Difference in absolute numbers between countries are attributed to difference in active case count.
The UK does not publish active cases, as far as i know. But if i apply this found number backward (kind of reverse engineering), the UK should have some 200.000 plus active cases by now. Is there any knowledge about this in the UK?
In G. autumn vacation started just now. Schools are closed for 2 weeks. My conclusion from first wave was that closing schools did the most to reduce active cases. We shall see if this holds some truth and this brings active cases under control.
There are no statewide or countrywide lockdowns, but by today more than 40 counties have more than 50 new cases within 7 days, putting the counties into local lockdown.I’ve been on the UK Government’s website to look at the raw data, which does your head in because it is just the raw data (warts and all); and one thing that is missing is data on how many active cases there are in the community. Although I’m sure if you spent the time counting how many people tested positive within the last 28 days and deducted deaths you’d probably get a rough estimate?
But I did gleam some interesting data about hospitalisation and testing:-
Population in the four Nations of the UK:-
• Northern Ireland = 1.882 million
• Wales = 3.136 million
• Scotland = 5.454 million
• England = 55.98 million
On the 11th October (most recent updated data):-
1. Number of people admitted to hospital for Covid-19 on 11th October:-
• Northern Ireland = 7
• Wales = 79
• Scotland = 0
• England = 628
2. Total number of people in hospital with Covid-19 on 11th October:-
• Northern Ireland = 140
• Wales = 327
• Scotland = 449
• England = 3,451
3. Total number of people on ventilators for Covid-19 on 11th October:-
• Northern Ireland = 35
• Wales = 29
• Scotland = 12
• England = 401
TESTING
Caveat: Since June, the UK Government has tried to keep capacity for testing higher than demand, so that over 90% of test results are returned within 24 hours. It failed miserably in September when demand outstripped capacity (so that only a third of results were returned within 24 hours); but since then most of the issues have been rectified and the testing programme is now more or less back on course.
Current Testing Capacity is above 300,000 per day with a Government Target to get it to half a million per day by the end of the month.
For Testing the latest full data is 13th October.
On the 13th October:-
• Testing Capacity on 13th October = 344,159
• Actual Tests done (demand) on 13th October = 219,074
• Number of positive tests on 13th October = 17,234
Also on the 13th October 2,973 antibody tests, and 20,138 tests for research (R&D) purposes, were also carried out.
Covid-19 Strategy UK
Throughout the summer (since 4th July) the UK Government have been using a ‘Whack-a-Mole’ strategy e.g. targeted tight ‘Social’ and ‘Economic’ Restrictions in areas (big & small) where flare-ups occur.
As of today, in England, that has been replaced with a ‘Traffic Light’ system e.g. a three tier system where every part of England falls into one or other of the three tiers; with those in the lowest tier having to follow just the current ‘Rule of 6’ but otherwise carry on as normal; and those in the highest tier having strict ‘Social’ & ‘Economic’ Restrictions applied.
Currently, it’s generally a north/south divide at the moment; most of northern England in the top two tiers (the toughest restrictions) and southern England in the lowest tier (just the ‘Rule of 6’); albeit the situation is being closely monitored, and can change at short notice e.g. London and Exeter are on the watch list for potentially being put into a higher tier.
The Scottish (Socialist) Government last week, put Scotland into total lockdown (circuit break) for 16 days, with a view to adopting the UK Traffic Light system when their lockdown ends.
SAGE (The Government’s Scientific and Medical Advisory Body), and Labour (Socialist) Opposition Party are both putting pressure on the UK Government to follow Scotland’s example and put the whole of the UK under a short economic lockdown for at least two weeks (Circuit breaker); so if the Government’s current strategy shows no sign of working, then the Government may change tact within a few weeks, and impose the ‘circuit break’ (nationwide lockdown for a short period)?
We are in unchartered territory, but Boris is still ambitious in trying to bring down infection rates before Christmas (if possible), so that the British people can enjoy a good Christmas; and knowing Boris, the current tactics may well change again soon, if they are not seen to be working?Arthur, we shall probably have more time to discuss green energy in weeks to come. Things are getting nasty here in Europe.
As of Oct. 16th we get local lockdowns all over the country. Beginning of September no county was in the red zone (50/7days/100.000). Now it is 80 counties, doubled with 2 days.
Even rationally acting German state and federal governments are getting hysterical. Can be noticed by states running free on imposing measures to contain the virus. Some forbid tourist travel, others restrict nothing, some even impose travel restriction on business - chaotic.
For the time being, health care system in G. is still relaxed, less than 5% of available ICU capacity filled with Covid19 patients. However median age of infected has picked up from 32 years (2 weeks ago) to 38 years today.
We shall see that this second wave to no more a wave, it will be a tsunami rushing over Europe. The number of active cases more than doubled within 2 weeks. But what is more worrying: At the height of the first wave in Europe, we had some 700.000 active cases (April). Now we have 3700.000, every European country carrying its share. Of what comfort will it be that we have a much reduced fatality rate, if we don´t get active cases under control. Absolute numbers matter, not percentages in statistics.Yep, it’s basically the same in the UK as in Germany.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are now in near full lockdown (circuit break) with Wales to go into national lockdown this weekend; Scotland in full lockdown for 16 days, with Northern Ireland in lockdown for a month, and Wales going into lockdown for at least a couple of weeks.
England has taken a different tact of rather than imposing a full national economic lockdown, of imposing partial lockdowns on a local level (hot spots) instead; on the three tier system (traffic light system) e.g. level one just the ‘Rule of Six’, with level 3 being the shutting of all pubs (bars) and non-essential shops etc.
The Rule of Six being that people cannot gather in groups larger than six, outside or inside, in public or in private; giving the police the power to breakup private house parties, and garden BBQ’s etc.
In England currently, most of northern England and London are in the top two levels (where the spread is highest), and the South West is still in the lowest level e.g. infection rate still quite low.
When Scotland’s 16 day lockdown end’s they are mindful to adopt the traffic light system in use in England.
In England, non-essential travel from level 3 (highest level) to other parts of England is illegal.
In Wales, the police are patrolling the Welsh border with England to prevent anyone from level 2 or level 3 in England from entering Wales.
The Labour Party (Socialists) and many local governments are pressing Boris to follow Scotland’s lead and put the whole of England into a short economic lockdown for at least two weeks; albeit the WHO is backing Boris’s strategy!Europe that was badly affected by covid-19 after China, has learnt a lesson the hard way not to give in to another severe covid 19 outbreak. Prime Minister Boris Johnson should not make another mistake of allowing the virus to strike his people again. The first outbreak is enough lesson. I understand else where China is likely in control of the United Nations? If so Boris has been brainwashed? She is not worry if the whole of Europe is destroyed as long as her economic progress is concerned.
I’ll take each of your points in turn:-
#1: The countries in Europe that were slow in imposing an economic shutdown the first time round (back in March) were hard hit by the pandemic e.g. UK, Spain, Italy. The other countries, like Germany and Greece etc., who responded more quickly got off more lightly.
#2: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is making a judgement on how to best tackle the pandemic. Whether his judgement is the better choice remains to be seen; we should get an idea on this over the coming weeks, as things play out. However, he hasn’t ruled any option out, and may well revise his tactics in the coming weeks.
#3: No China is not in control of the UN (United Nations), nor are they in control of WHO (World Health Organisation); both those claims are propaganda (lies) spread by right-wing (nationalist) politics in the USA.
I never mentioned the UN; it’s the WHO that gives the International scientific & medical advice on the pandemic. Besides, Boris doesn’t take advice from WHO, he takes advice from SAGE (the UK scientific & medical advisors to the UK Government). I just mentioned that the WHO approved of Boris’s current tactics (local lockdowns) in preference to a full national lockdown. Albeit I didn’t mention that the SAGE advice was for a full national lockdown. It’s a difference of opinion in two different strategies to combat the pandemic; which opinion is more right will become more transparent over the coming weeks.
#4: Actually China doesn’t want to see Europe, nor the USA destroyed, specifically because China’s interest is in Economic Globalisation (not Nationalism) e.g. China’s economic growth is dependent on growth in world trade, and that can’t be achieved if her trading partners are in economic decline.
The stories about China that you’ve heard to the contrary are unfounded fears by the American people of China, propagated by right-wing nationalist’s political propaganda in the USA whose ideology is Nationalism rather than Globalism.
It’s Russia who would like to see Europe and the USA destroyed, as Russia is not interested in International Economic Trade; Russia’s agenda is to destabilise the West (Europe & USA) to undermine democracy and promote communism.Arthur, thanks for the response. You have simplfy things to me well. But curious why the USA should engaged in such a propagada?! The world is not at military war.
Tell me about it (sarcasm for I know, it’s bizarre). But the reality is that the right-wing politics in the USA is currently fixated with ‘Nationalism’ (Protectionism) e.g. fearful that cheap imports from China and the EU will undermine American Industry (threaten manufacturing jobs in America); an ideology of Trump.
Another ideology of America is the concept that America is the wealthiest and most powerful nation on earth, and they feel threatened by China e.g. a fear that China will displace the USA as the greatest and most powerful nation in the world.
Britain is also going through a phase of ‘Nationalism’, but for different reasons.
In reality, it’s a far more complex and dynamic picture than portrayed by the right-wing nationalist in America.
China may well eventually dominate world trade instead of the USA; but what goes around, comes around e.g. it’s not going to be the end of the world, nor the end of the USA as a great nation, if China displaces the USA as the leading economic power in the world.
The fears are over exaggerated as China isn’t currently the second wealthiest trading block in the world behind the USA; it’s the EU (European Union). That’s why Trump also initiated a ‘Trading War’ with the EU as well as China e.g. fearful that the EU is doing the same thing to the USA as China (undermining the manufacturing Industry in the USA at the cost of USA jobs), through cheap imports!
They are valid fears, but ‘protectionism’ (putting up barriers against world trade) and ‘trade wars’ are not the answer; they do more harm than good e.g. puts downward pressure on world trade, making it more difficult for the USA to export, with greater job losses in the USA e.g. it’s an ideology that is counterproductive.
World Trade, to be effective, has to be two-way; and the best way to achieve that equitably is through Trade Deals. In the absence of Trade Deals are the Rules of the WTO (World Trade Organisation), which is complex and not perfect, but it does work to a fashion.
It’s not the first time in history that a country has lost the top spot, and it’ll not be the last either:-
• Britain was the dominant nation during the period of the British Empire, when from the 17th century until the beginning of the 2nd world war Britain ruled over 25% of the world at the height of its Empire; with the majority of world trade going through British Ports.
• Since World War Two, the USA has been the dominant nation.
• Now, the USA feels threatened by both the EU & China; hence its propaganda against both nations.
Putting it into perspective, Britain loosing its Empire didn’t plunge Britain into economic disaster, Britain, since the 1960s has been just as prosperous economically as the USA; so not being the dominant nation does not equate to the economic disaster that the USA right-wing nationalist would have you believe.
Some notes on life on G. with with Corona.
Told my wife that next week will see more restrictions and we have to do some "strategic" shopping of groceries over the weekend. And indeed - toilet paper is again rationed (1 package per household), some shelves are empty (potatoes, flour, sugar). Same as in March during full lockdown.
IN general life seems to be very normal. On Tuesday we were bowling with our daugthers family (party of 7 in my SUV). Tonight we went to the cinema. No masks required after we were seated. Hope it stays this way for the time to come. Our city is currently a low risk area with very few Corona incidents. But - can change within a day.
In G. car license plates have uncoded county readings. So everyone sees where you are from and if it is a no-no area. Easy game for hunting down violators. You don´t have to block county or state borders.
New scientific studies are out which describe a corrected method of relating the R-factor to heard immunity. In short: R-factor is not constant over the population. In other words: susceptibility does vary and thus reduces the necessicity for high herd immunity. While the first wave infected those with the highest susceptibility and resulted in a high R-factor, now the cohort with lower susceptibility is contaminated and results in a lower R-factor. The study sees a herd immunity of 20% to 30% to be sufficient to contain the virus.
One of the studies: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 … 3.full.pdf
The study does not explain how people are more or less susceptible, but by introducing this variability, they fix the flawed models that initially indicated a long exponential growth period. This did not happen in any country, not in those countries with doing nothing and not in the countries that did a lot.
The study results probably need an update when we are through the second wave. Anyhow i think the study makes much sense already now.
It even seems to explain the results in Eastern Europe (and former East Germany). Initially i thought it was the robust mandatory vaccination programs in the former Comecon Block, that prevented catastrophies like in Italy or Spain. With respect to the study more light may be shed on this phenomenon. Possibly the cohort of highly susceptible was taken care of through the vaccination program. So Russia never experienced a spike in R-factor but has a very steady rise in cases and fatalities. It is enough to have R a little above 1 and have a more even susceptibility among the population and you get the result as in Russia, Belorus and others.Based on your feedback, there are some notable differences between UK & Germany:-
Food Supply Chain (Supply & Demand)
Currently, there’s no food shortages in the UK; business as usual.
During the first wave back in March/April food had to be rationed in the UK due to panic buying and people stocking-up on supplies e.g. restricted to buying just 3 of each essential item (including packs of toilet paper); but the competing supermarkets (competitors) collaborated by sharing resources (Staff, transport and supplies) to keep the supply chains open, and ensure supermarkets (food stores) were re-stocked overnight, every day: So the shelves were full first thing in the morning (when NHS staff and the elderly were given priority shopping) but were becoming empty by the afternoon.
We’ve never had any chronic shortage of toilet paper in the UK, but our Australian cousins did during the start of the pandemic back in March/April.
Also in April, the competing supermarkets collaborated together (sharing staff, transport and supplies) (pulling resources) to develop ‘Home Delivery’ as a prime option during the lockdown: Supermarkets doing Home Deliveries prior to the pandemic was quite well established anyway, just on a much smaller scale.
Therefore, ever since the start of the lockdown back in late March we’ve had almost all our food home delivered; and we’re still using the ‘Home Delivery’ Service because it saves us having to physically visit the supermarkets while the pandemic is still with us.
One interesting quirk of the competing (different) supermarkets pulling their resources for home delivery is that we place our order (on-line) with one supermarket, and the following week it might be delivered by a ‘hot dog vendor’ (sub-contracted), and some of the supplies can be from competitor supermarkets e.g. we place our order with Morrison’s Supermarket and they deliver Tesco or Sainsbury’s supermarket branded baked beans for example; which is generally fine e.g. British Baked beans are all basically the same regardless to brand.
However, the one hiccup was when we had mainland Europe baked beans (which isn’t normally available in the UK) delivered instead. We tried one tin, but it wasn’t to our taste, so we gave the remaining tins to charity (food bank).
FYI Continental European baked beans are made from beans grown in Europe, and when tined contain half the sugar that British baked beans contain. British Baked Beans are imported from the USA, but for the British market the American exporters add half the amount of sugar than they do for the American home market; so I dare say that baked beans sold in the USA wouldn’t be to our taste either.
Socialising
Currently half the UK population is under some form of social/economic lockdown, to varying degrees e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, London and most of Northern England; while the other half of the country (southern England, excluding London) are just under the basic ‘Rule of Six’ Regulations.
I live in Bristol (southern England), where the virus contagion is relatively low at the moment, so restrictions are comparatively light e.g. basic ‘social distancing’, wearing masks in enclosed spaces and gathering in groups no larger than six etc. So compared to other parts of the country life is relatively normal e.g. we ventured out for the 2nd time a few weeks ago to spend the day at Slimbridge Wildlife Bird Reservation.
Our Day Trip to Slimbridge Wetland Wildlife Reserve during the pandemic: https://youtu.be/FjSPVZRRceo?t=320
However, in reading your comments, I note some of the things you describe about your ‘socialising’ which would be illegal in the UK, as follows:-
1. A party of 7 (in public or private, indoors or outdoors) is illegal in the UK, the maximum number of people allowed anywhere in the UK in a group is just ‘six people’.
2. Masks are mandatory indoors (in public places) in the UK, unless you are seated and eating and/or drinking. Therefore, masks would be required in a cinema in the UK.
Borders
We don’t have regional car license plates, so when the Authorities want to stop travel from high infected areas e.g. on the Welsh border with England, it can only be done by road blocks manned by the police.
Scientific studies
The link you gave is neither ‘new’ (dated 21st May) nor has it been ‘peer reviewed’. Therefore, I can’t put too much weight on it, and although the ‘R’ value is a crude tool, your comments don’t seem to accord with the UK!
During the first wave, back in March/April, over 50% of all Covid-19 related deaths in the UK were in ‘care-homes’. However, of the 12,250 care homes (477,100 residents) in the UK only 56% of them actually became infected with Covid-19. So there is still a real risk of the remaining 44% of care homes becoming infected with the virus; including where my wife’s brother (and his wife) live e.g. they rent a flat (apartment) in a care home in Bristol (old hospital converted to flats for the elderly) with a resident nurse on the premises 24/7; so far no infections on the property where they live.
Extensive research (mass testing for antibodies within the community) done by the NHS shows that so far, less than 7% of the British population has been exposed to the virus, so we are a long way from herd immunity.
During the first wave the contagion was evenly spread across all age groups.
During this 2nd wave the contagion is most predominantly amongst the younger age groups, mainly in those in their 20s, and to a lesser extent in their 30s, because it’s that age group that is socialising; whole those in their 40s and above, and those in higher risk groups, are predominantly shielding themselves from social contact. Although younger people going out socialising, and becoming infected, are subsequently passing the virus onto their parents and grandparents; so gradually the older (more vulnerable) age groups are slowly becoming infected, leading to more hospitalisations and deaths.
So apart from better treatment and people at higher risk being more cautious, nothing has greatly changed in the UK e.g. the risks of serious illness is just as high, and we are no closer to herd immunity in the UK now than we were at the start of the pandemic back in March.The effects of having a lockdown and not having a lockdown can be seen now. While in April/May during the first wave a typical tracking process included 8-10 contacts, now numbers were published that indicate 70 - 100 contacts to be followed per Covid19 positive tested. People simply don´t stay at home and don´t reduce contacts any more.
Meanwhile Germany has reached more than 10.000 new infected per day, the tracing is getting to its limits as this means almost 1 Million contacts have to be followed up per day. I think in some counties with a high uptick in cases it is already out of control.
What we know by now is that private contacts, parties, family reunions, weddings, funerals are the main driver. Man is a social animal. You can´t lock up people any more.
As life goes indoor, this fuels infection probability by magnitudes. So even if susceptibilty goes down with the second wave, indoor life overrides.
And if tracing is no more helpful and efficient, who knows how long it takes to get the virus again into the elderly care facilities.
Looks like the UK is even much worse off. This week population adjusted you have the same numbers as the US, which means: no more control. My (reverse engineering) estimate of active cases suggests some 300 -350 thousand currently in the UK.Yep, with population adjusted figures, the UK has just reached where the USA was a week ago, although since last week the death rate in the USA has started to climb again. So we are not quite at the same level as the USA yet; albeit in the UK it will get worse before it gets better, and looking at the trends, it’s also going to get a lot worse in the USA in the coming weeks.
During a couple of his ‘Address to the Nation’ this week Boris has apologised for failings in the system etc. e.g. acknowledgment of cracks in the ‘track & trace system’ due to the exponential growth in new cases, issues which his Government are constantly working on to improve.
Part of the reason for the exponential growth in new cases is the Government increasing its test capacity from 300,000 to near 500,000 per day over the past month (detecting more cases due to increase testing); plus of course, the positivity rate has also increased dramatically over the same period: Both factors that puts added pressure on ‘track and trace’; to a point where tests results have once again slipped back to only a third of results coming back within 24 hours (a major embarrassment to the Government): Albeit a test capacity of 500,000 a day in the UK is an achievement in comparison to the USA where they are only testing between 600,000 and 800,000 a day.
One controversial move by the UK Government last week was to change the law so that the police now have access to the ‘track & trace’ data so that they now have the tools to check that individuals who should be ‘isolating’ are doing so; with potential fines of up to £10,000 for breaching quarantine rules.
Yep, the UK ‘track and trace’ data confirms what you say about what is fuelling the pandemic.
The ‘track and trace’ data clearly shows that the two main causes of the spread of the virus in the UK are:-
• University Students, and
• People Socialising in each other’s homes
On the latter point, that’s why the Government introduced the ‘Rule of 6’ across the whole of the UK in early September e.g. illegal to gather in groups of more than 6 people outside or inside, in public or in private.
It’s also the main reason why the pandemic is more widespread in northern England than in southern England; traditionally northerners are far more sociable than southerners e.g. northerners are far more inclined to have house parties and garden BBQs, inviting family, friends and neighbours around, than southerners who are more inclined to keep themselves to themselves.
UK North Vs South: Are Southerners Unfriendly? https://youtu.be/v_AH6lr2VUQ
With regards to University Students: Back in July (4th July) when Boris lifted the lockdown and re-opened the economy, Boris at the time stated that keeping schools (and universities) open was his top priority and that if he had to make a choice he would close pubs down before closing schools (universities). In reality, the ‘track & trace’ data shows that pubs in the UK are not the super spreaders that everyone at the time feared they might be, but that universities are. Nevertheless, in tier 2 & 3 areas (the hot spots) it’s the pubs that the Government is forcing to close, not the universities? However, this week, Boris did say that he intends to put ‘all’ university students into a two-week quarantine in early December so that they can all safely go home for Christmas with low risk of passing on the virus to their parents and grandparents; all part of Boris’s fixation on trying to get the pandemic under control by Christmas so that the British people can “Enjoy Christmas”.
The current status is that a few weeks ago most of northern England was put into local lockdown, with London recently going into lockdown; and in the last week or two Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have all been put into lockdown by their various Governments.
The only major part of the UK that’s not under any lockdown, other than the basic ‘Rule of 6’ is southern England (excluding London) e.g. the only part of the country where the infection rate is still low. The latest indicators are that there are early signs that the infection rate is slowing in some of the areas in Northern England that have been under lockdown for a few weeks. So although the infection rate in the UK is still currently on the rise, it may be an early indicator that the curve is beginning to be flattened? We should get a better idea over the coming weeks!What the R-factor of a little above 1 can do:
Since middle of July R remained a little above 1, something between 1,15 and 1,2. And look what mess is happening. Everything above 1 is exponential.
In July a lot of infected recovered, suggesting a relief, even though R was already above 1. Then eventually G. ran out of recovered cases and the 2. wave began.
We now have the choice of either fully stepping on the brakes, enforce full lockdown and damage the economy further or let the matter slip out of control.
All measures that are something inbetween a full lockdown and business as usual will not help, will only delay "out of control" a little bit. Applies to all of Europe. The US is helpless anyways.
In G. the healthcare situation is still calm. Some 1100 Covid patients hospitalized with 500 on ventilators. ICU Capacity in the range of 30.000 without emergency measures. Scheduled ICU useage not halted yet. It will probably need more than a magnitude more Covid patients to stress the system. But this can happen very fast. Average age of new infected is increasing every day.Yep, similar in the UK, except for the timing e.g. the UK’s 2nd wave didn’t start until September.
Prior to 4th July (when Boris) re-opened the economy, until 11th September the ‘R’ value in the UK was hovering around ‘1’, and the infection was steady and declining slowly week by week.
The ‘R’ value rose to between 1.1 & 1.4 on 11th September, and since then, as you describe, everything has been exponential.
The ‘R’ value in the UK peeked at between 1.3 & 1.6 on the 2nd October, and has slowly been dropping since. This week (23rd October) the ‘R’ value is between 1.2 & 1.4, the lowest the ‘R’ value has been since the 18th September; obviously still far too high, but slowly heading in the right direction.
The two ‘R’ values represents the two extremes across the UK e.g. Southern England (where I live) being the least affected part of the country (the lower ‘R’ value), and Northern Ireland being where the infection rate is the highest (the upper ‘R’ value).
I understand what you say about it should be ‘all’ or ‘nothing’ e.g. a full lockdown, or just let it rip like the USA; and that halfway measure only slow down but not stop the virus from spreading out of control.
That’s why ‘official’ opinion on the right course of action to control the pandemic is currently split in the UK: Effectively two experimental ‘course of action’ being carried out in the UK; which course of action proves to be most effective will be closely monitored over the coming weeks, and will no doubt set the course of Government policy as we move into December.
The two different approaches being:-
• Full or near full social and economic national lockdowns as in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and
• Regional lockdowns on a three tier system, whereby only those regions where the infection is high are under near full lockdown e.g. large parts of northern England.
In England, those advocating a full national lockdown are:-
• SAGE (The Government’s Scientific & Medical Advisory Body),
• The Labour Party, and
• Most Local Governments.
In England, those advocating just measured Regional lockdowns, full or partial dependant on the local infection rate, is the UK Government (Boris), and the WHO (World Health Organisation).
The Scottish Government have already decided that when Scotland comes out of full lockdown next month that they will adopt a variation on Boris’s scheme e.g. a 5 tier system of ‘Regional Lockdowns’ in Scotland, with the lowest tier (Level 0) being near normal life, and the highest tier (level 4) being a full lockdown in a Region.
As at 23rd October in the UK:-
• 7,706 Covid-19 patients hospitalised, and
• 707 covid-19 patients on ICU.
The UK does have plenty of spare capacity at the moment because of the Nightingale Hospitals built in April, and equipped with ventilators, specifically to cope with the pandemic.
The UK built 7 Nightingale Hospitals around the UK in April, the largest of which are London, with a capacity to take 4,000 Covid-19 patients on ICU if required, and Birmingham with a capacity of 5,000 ICU beds. Total combined capacity of the 7 Nightingale Hospitals is 11,960, each bed being equipped with a ventilator if required.
Likewise, as with Germany, the average age of new infected is increasing by the day.Looks like England is going into full lockdown for a month. Doesn´t seem to apply for all of the UK. Or do i understand the situation wrong?
Meanwhile Germany enforces a lockdown light for the month of November. This will only cause trouble.
In my understanding the lockdown is imposed now to have a relief by Christmas. If the situation is not relaxed by Christmas, people will massively ignore any restrictions. Already now the measures are not coherent and don´t represent any lessons learned.
Contradictory:
- Schools remain open, but to close schools was one of the main helpers in dealing with the first wave.
- Almost no infection spreading found outdoors. But now mask wearing is imposed even oudoors in downtown shopping areas.
- Very few infections in restaurants, but all resaurants have to close now.
My conclusion: All measures impose restrictions in public areas. This drives people into private (and uncontrolled) space, homes - not to mention weather conditions that make people live inside anyways. Imho all measures result in having less control. Of course, gives politicians the image of having responded correctly.
I was fully supporting the government action in March/April to contain the first wave. Now this all looks like inconsistent actionism with potentially little impact. I only hope i am wrong.Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are already in full (short, sharp) lockdowns; called a circuit break, aka firebreak.
• Scotland went into lockdown on 9th October until 2nd November.
• Northern Ireland went into lockdown on 16th October until 13th November.
• Wales went into lockdown on 23rd October until 9th November.
Northern Ireland (far right wing Government) went into lockdown on 16th October because that (along with Northern England) is where the highest rates of infections are in the UK. And like Northern England, the spread of the virus is out of control in Northern Ireland.
Scotland went into lockdown early and quickly because, although the infection rates were low, new cases were beginning to rise rapidly, and they wanted to get on top of the situation before it got out of control.
In Scotland (Socialist Government), during their lockdown (9th October until today) the spread of the virus has been curved, and infections rates are now down to low levels again. So Scotland has adopted a five tier local lockdown policy (based on Boris’s three tier system that’s been in operation in England since early September) which comes into force today in Scotland e.g. Regional lockdowns, with the highest level of restrictions where the virus is most prevalent (hot spots).
Scotland has also imposed travel restrictions between Scotland and England.
In Wales (Socialist Government), like Scotland, the infections rates were relatively low, but had started to rise sharply, so they went into lockdown on the 23rd October for a couple of weeks, as a ‘fire break’.
And like Scotland, Wales have imposed travel restrictions between Wales and England; but unlike Scotland, are enforcing it with road blocks on the English/Welsh border with police.
As with Germany, the proposed lockdown in England imposes closure of pubs and restaurants, and all non-essential shops and businesses (where the infection rates are known to be low), but keeps schools and universities open, in spite of the fact that it’s known that it’s the university students who are responsible for a large proportion of the virus spread! Albeit the ‘Rule of 6’ (gatherings of 6 more than 6 people in public or private, outside or inside) is illegal, and enforceable by the police with fines of up to £10,000 for breaches of the Covid-19 Regulations.
Boris’s fixation, as it has been since July, is to bring the pandemic under control by Christmas, so that the British public can enjoy Christmas as a temporary rest-break from the pandemic, pending the role out of the vaccine in the spring.
Pilot trials of the quick 10 minute saliva tests have been carried out across three towns in England over the past month. The 10 minutes kits (three different types being trialled) have a 98% accuracy, are all British manufactured, and can be mass produced cheaply with a potential production capacity of 10 million kits a day.
During the month long lockdown, Boris is intent on introducing these quick 10 minute kits on a large scale as a means of a mass testing programme across the UK, as a way of trying to beat the virus down during the month long circuit-breaker! E.g. the potential of being able to test up to 1/7th of the population daily, with instant results!
On Wednesday of this week (4th November) Parliament are voting on Boris’s proposed lockdown (to start on Thursday 5th November); and Boris will have to rely on support from the Labour Party (Socialists) to get his proposed lockdown approved by Parliament because of opposition from Conservatives on the far right in his own party. That shouldn’t be a problem because the Labour Party is fully supportive of Boris’s proposals; albeit the Labour party will be pressing for Boris to also include closing schools and universities during the lockdown. The far right of Boris’s own party are opposed to the lockdown because they want to keep the economy open, and the far right of the Conservatives are angling to try to take ‘Queens prerogative’ (powers) away from Boris to prevent him from having power to make decisions on the pandemic without consulting with Parliament; previous attempts made by the far right of the conservatives in his party, for Parliament to seize these powers from Boris has failed, because so far the Labour Party have backed Boris in keeping his decision making powers on pandemic matters specifically because it allows him to make snap decisions when necessary.
Are we understimating the influence of being indoors?
I looked at worldometer and found some numbers:
Death count per Million continental average:
Africa: 41
Asia: 62
Europe: 363
North America: 571
South America: 657
The only continent predominantly on the southern hemisphere is South America. More indoor in their winter period means more fatalities.
If i am right, the situation in South America should relieve a little and all countries on the northern hemisphere will experience an increase in daily cases.
Asia and Africa don´t have too many territories that are really subject to season (Except some of China, Korea and Japan). So seasonal impact will be smaller.
The numbers i found are population adjusted, but they are not age adjusted. If median population age in Africa is much lower than f.e. in Europe, a whole cohort of vulnerable senior citizens will not be effected, party explaining the low fatality rate in Africa.
The more the pandemic progresses, the more i loose confidence that administrative measures can really do the trick. If you are not on an isolated island like Iceland or New Zealand, you will have to live with the virus. Too much interconnectivity.The southern hemisphere is taking a break. The country-list of worldometer had most South American countries ranking high in adjusted death count. Now (getting warmer in S.A.) their numbers are stalling, their ranking being replaced by the US, UK and European countries on the northern hemisphere.
What do countries like Uruguay or Venezuela do differently compared to much harder hit peer neighbours? Still much unknown with this virus or do we have an explanation?Yep, we’ve ‘learning as we go along’; still a lot to learn about this new disease.
The ‘Rule of Six’ in the UK, introduced in early September seems to be paying off e.g. the curve on ‘New Cases’ is now flattening, and showing early signs of possibly coming down again. The ‘Rule of Six’ being gatherings of no more than 6 people in public or private, in open space or enclosed space.
With England having just gone into near full economic and social lockdown as from today (5th November) and with the Celtic nations (Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) due to come out of lockdown within weeks (Scotland has just come out of lockdown), that should help to flatten and bring the curve for ‘new cases’ down further and quicker in the UK; and after a time-lag, deaths too.
Of course, even if Biden does win the Presidency, he’s not going to be able to do anything to tackle the pandemic in the USA until January: ‘Too Little, Too Late’ e.g. even if Biden wanted to I don’t think the American people have got the ‘stomach, patience or sense’ for a 2nd lockdown. The best he’s going to be able to achieve is to make ‘mask wearing’ mandatory across all 50 States, and impose Federal Regulations on ‘Social Distancing’, which in themselves will not be enough to have any great impact on the pandemic; albeit every little bit helps to save lives e.g. by the time Biden takes office the USA will be approaching half a million Covid-19 related deaths.
The USA has moved up to the 9th worst country in the world for Covid-19 related deaths per million of population; while the UK has slipped into 13th place, and now the 3rd worst across Europe, rather than the worst (deaths per million).Arthur, concerning performance to control the pandemic, i believe there has to be more to it than just mask wearing and social distancing. My curiosity is shifting to countries like Sweden, Belorus or the South American countries i mentioned. What did and do they do differently?
I start thinking that a lot has to do with consistent, permanent rules, not erratically changing the rules all the time (from lifting restrictions to imposing new restrictions). In this context, permanent may also mean: no restriction at all (like in Belorus).
In management and corporate leadership we have a little anekdote to describe and understand the behavior of the staff. It has the abreviation BAW - "bend and wait". It describes the psychological behavior of staff who is constantly subjected to new rules without waiting for the outcome of existing rules. Happens often when management is changing frequently and every new boss tries to impose his own way to improve matters.
The Corona virus - For the past 9 months the pandemic is active, nothing has changed so far. But management (government) tampers all the time with the restrictions. What are the people doing: BAW - bend and wait. At first bending was not comfortable but accepted. Then government eased restrictions and everyone relaxed. But the real issue, the pandemic never disappeared, so there was no reason to relax, except for management to "howl with the wolves", to accomodate people. And now - people don´t even bend anymore.
The company i worked for in executive position imposed mask wearing in March. I was there 2 weeks ago for my yearly flu shot (a service even for retirees like me) and still the same mask wearing on the workplaces. Gives me a warm feeling that my recommendations on consistency are still obeyed.
Anyways, if you want to keep a crowd organized, never let change dynamics be faster than the response dynamics. Especially if you don´t understand much on the response dynamics (the virus).
At the end of the day (of the pandemic) those countries will have fared best, who adopted this principle. Sweden failed in protecting the elderly, but is now successful in keeping the virus under control (hopefully). They applied easy to follow restrictions (not much bending) and never changed them.You raise some interesting points.
I’m not familiar with how Belarus or South Africa are tackling the pandemic, or how successful they’ve been, so I can’t make any comments there.
However, Sweden hasn’t been as successful as many think. At first glance they’ve appeared to have done well because they have a small population and hence their death toll at 6,000 appears small. However, when you look at ‘deaths per million’ it tells a different story e.g. 593 deaths per million of population.
In fact of the 45 European countries, Sweden is the 8th worst for deaths as a percentage of population.
Yesterday I said the UK was the 3rd worst, but that was a typo; the UK is actually the 5th worst at this moment in time.
The European countries that have to date been more successful in controlling the pandemic includes:-
• Germany: 32nd worst out of 45 (133 deaths per million)
• Belarus: 34th worst out of 45 (106 deaths per million)
• Greece: 38th worst out of 45 (67 deaths per million)
• Iceland: 41st worst out of 45 (53 deaths per million).
This compares with:
• UK: 5th worst (708 million deaths per million)
• Sweden: 8th worst (593 million deaths per million)
I mentioned Greece and Iceland because they are two countries who have been successful in combating the pandemic, and because I know what their strategy was.
Greece shut down their economy early and hard (full lockdown) because they are a poor country and knew that they wouldn’t be able to cope if they let the virus spread e.g. one of the first countries outside of Asia to go into full lockdown.
Iceland has been successful, because like South Korea they’ve had a very aggressive ‘testing, track and trace’ programme.
In answer to your question:-
1. Tightening restrictions does curb the pandemic, and relaxing them once the spread has been lowered does allow the potential for the virus to start spreading again.
2. One or two measures on their own e.g. just mask wearing, and social distancing (as favoured by the USA) doesn’t work that well; they should be part of a package of many measures, including, and most importantly ‘Testing, Track and Trace’; something which dropped from 800,000 to 600,000 a day in the USA over the past month.
Other factors to consider are:-
• The virus prefers colder climates, hence its increase in the USA and across Europe as we enter the winter months, and
• The virus spreads more easily in urban areas e.g. cities, than rural areas; and I’m guessing the population in South Africa is generally sparser?
In fact, as demonstrated by China, South Korea, Iceland and a number of other countries, Mass Testing, with good track and trace has been at the root of their success in keeping the pandemic, and hence deaths, to a minimum.
In that respect, although the UK has been plagued with one problem after another in trying to emulate South Korea in mass testing it is inching forever closer to potentially making it work. In the UK we are now up to a ‘Testing Capacity’ of half a million tests a day, albeit because of Administrative, technical and logistic problems only about a third of those tests return a result within 24 hours (to the embarrassment of the Government).
Nevertheless, the UK Government is now pinning its hope on mass testing using the 10-minute rapid tests (with 98% accuracy); which will potentially allow for millions of tests to be conducted daily.
In that respect, as part of getting the logistics right, the next phase of piloting such a ‘mass testing’ programme (which was piloted in three English towns last month) everyone in the city of Liverpool (population of half a million) are to be mass tested using the new 10-minute rapid tests; and if that trial is successful the UK Government is keen to roll out the ‘mass testing’ programme across the whole of the UK, capable of potentially testing 10 million people a day, before the current one month ‘lockdown’ ends.Much of the performance has certainly to do with testing.
If i understand things right then testing is handled differently in countries and this lead to some extent to differences in performance.
Low population islands (Iceland, New Zealand, possibly Australia) can isolate themselves from the outside.
In late summer Germany has switched to mandatory testing for travellers reentering. But that was flawed because test results were delayed and no directive was made to quarantine travellers after reentry. This allowed the R-factor to dwell a little above 1 for months August, Sept., Oct. with the explosive outcome of today. And by the way: G. is the center and intersection of economic Europe. 2/3 of lorries/trucks on the Autobahn system are not German. They pass almost unchecked.
China is testing everyone coming into the country and travellers have to quarantine in dedicated hotels for 2 weeks. Local outbreak are handled with hard restrictions.
Other countries do testing without someone needing to have preconditions.
All is depending on the number of active cases and how contageous the virus still is for society. The daily/weekly/biweekly death count is in direct correlation to the number of active cases. We can assume that the biweekly death count is in the range of 0,4 to 0,6% of active cases in that period (no matter Italy, USA, Germany, Austria). Do the reverse trick and you get some 700.000 active cases by now in the UK, even though not reported.
Greeces death toll has risen 70% in the past month. They have doubled their active cases. I would think they are a hard hit by now. Sweden on the other hand has in increase of Corona death of 2% in the same period. See what i mean?
Germany is in the same category as the rest of hard hit Europe. G. was only lucky with the first wave. Our current "lockdown light" is probably bound to fail, even if for the second consecutive day we have R below 1.
Still i have no idea of what Uruguay or Belorus are doing better.
Yes it can be advantageous if a country is an island, especially if the population is sparse.
Boris has taken advantage of the UK being an island by imposing strict quarantine rules for travellers from any country in the world where the infection rate is higher than 20 per 100,000 (which currently is most of the world); the 20 per 100,000 being the UK Government’s threshold for quarantine.
Also travel restrictions are currently imposed across internal borders between the four nations of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) e.g. road blocks manned by the police on the Welsh border with England.
Anyone entering the UK from any country where the infection rate is higher than 20 per 100,000 have to quarantine for 14 days by law; and the fine for not doing so is £10,000 (plus they get a Criminal Record).
In recent weeks the UK Government changed the law so that the police can access the NHS Track and Trace database to facilitate the police in spot checking that people are complying with the quarantine rules; which for ‘Travel Quarantine’ (people entering the UK from other countries) means they are housebound for the full 14 days e.g. leaving the home even for food shopping (to buy food) is illegal; they have to either get their food delivered, or get someone else (who’s not part of the household) to buy the food for them. The only reason they can leave their home is for medical reasons.
Spot checks are made on 20% of travellers to see if they are following the quarantine rules; and up to the end of September (latest full data) just 34 people were fined for ‘Travel Quarantine’ Rules; two thirds being under the age of 35.
As regards Greece and Sweden, both have similar size populations e.g. around 10 million. Yet to date the total death toll in Greece has only been 702 deaths; whereas in Sweden the current total death toll is 6,002; 8.5 time higher than Greece.
Therefore in spite of recent up-ticks in new cases in both countries (7 day rolling average of 2395 in Sweden (currently falling), and 2042 in Greece (currently rising); it seems to me that so far the heavy tactics in Greece have been far more successful in minimising deaths than the light tactics used in Sweden: Albeit, time will tell!Found this status on my smartphone "Corona Warning" App:
Apparently i had 2 brief contacts with Covid-positive people in the past 2 weeks (actually people, that tested positive some time before or after my contact, that is not even clear).
The app is in German, screen is green, so i should have nothing to worry about (contact too short, too far away, whatever).
My take on this: Currently some 20 million have downloaded the app. That is 25% of the population. Chance for contact is 25% * 25% = 6,25%.
This week we have some 200.000 active cases (only the active count out of the total population). Chances for contact in a 14 day period are : 200.000 / 80 mill * 14 * 6,25% = 0,22%. My 2 incidents cut this probability into half. So this screenshot is 1 out of 1000 of installed apps.
With the second wave in full development, this app can register some 200.000 / 80 mill * 6,25% = 12.500 contacts every day in G. But a lot of ifs: If someone tested positive he has to actively enter the test result into the app (nothing automatic, chances are 50%). If most are "green = nothing to worry", this rules out some 80% then the app catches some 1.800 serious contacts every day.
We currently have 6 - 7% positivity on testing with some 180.000 tests per day. The app contributes only 1% to the testing candidates. I dare say it is not worths it.
SInce the middle of last week Corona situation seems to stabilize, (R +/- 1, active case rise slowing, fewer deaths). But more restrictions to come. Future will tell.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are using their own apps. England and Wales are using the NHS app (Ver. 2) which wasn’t released until 24th September, delayed by almost 4 months due to the app being blocked by Apple security settings on Apple Devices. This was eventually resolved by the UK Government working with Apple and Google to modify the NHS app to comply with Apple’s security.
As at 29th October, 19 million people were using the app, about 40% of adults in England and Wales with access to a compatible smartphone; I’m not one of them because I’m still using an ‘old brick’ mobile phone e.g. an old mobile phone that doesn’t have web connectivity, albeit I’m still shielding e.g. not going out unless absolutely necessary, and even then I wear my mask and social distance.
Although the NHS app is not the primary tool in ‘track and trace’, it plays a small part. It is nevertheless a useful addition to the toolkit e.g. there’s already been one reported incident whereby the NHS app helped to identify an outbreak linked to a venue, which helped the ‘contact tracers’ to do their job more efficiently; every bit of intel (intelligence) helps.
I don’t know how many active cases there currently are, but since the 27th October the curve for new cases has flattened at around 22,000 new cases per day, and the ‘R’ value has fallen to between 1.1 & 1.3; which are good signs; so although the death toll will increase for a few more weeks, it’s likely to start falling again by next month.
Albeit, as at 4pm on 8th November, there were 12,949 patients in hospital with Covid-19, of which 1,185 are on ventilators.
The one good news is that the Government’s mass-testing trials:-
• Phase one in September of mass-testing in three towns using the quick saliva tests with results returned within 10 minutes.
• Phase 2 of the trials, which started earlier this week is to mass test the entire population of the city of Liverpool (half a million people) this month; with a view that if the trials are successful then to roll out mass testing across the whole of the UK, with the potential capacity to test up to 10 million people a day; which could be a game changer in fighting the pandemic.
Well considering that the flu has killed more people than cov19 I would say they are doing well
Well, if you don’t listen to the lies spouted by Trump, but you actually look at the facts you’ll see that the flu does not kill more people than Covid-19; and in actual fact the USA is NOT doing well in combating the pandemic.
Flu Season over the past five years USA:-
• 2015-2016 = 23,000
• 2016-2017 = 38,000
• 2017-2018 = 61,000
• 2018-2019 = 34,000
• 2019-2020 = 22,000
Total flue deaths in the USA over the past 5 years = 178,000
Total Covid-19 deaths in just 7 months in the USA = 224,282
My country's national leaders (Philippines) have no concrete plans on how to battle this pandemic. It's getting really frustrating day by day. Yes, we've managed to flatten the curve but, it took us five months to do that. We've been pleading to the gov't to do MASS TESTING, but they ain't doing it.
That's awful; mass testing is so essential in combating the pandemic; no wonder it took 5 months in the Philippines to flatten the curve.
I'm curious... how is the coronavirus there Now?
It has been an uphill battle in the U.S. and the numbers are spiking again just when we thought it was somewhat under control.
Uniting people together to wear masks and be cautious has different points of views in different areas.
Here...each state is controlling what lockdown measures are to be taken to help curb this virus.
As much as I hate to say it..it might be necessary for all states to join together with the same plan.
People here are sometimes too relaxed...which I admit I do at times also. I cannot be worried each minute..life keeps moving forward and I want to live each second of it.That's the approach that was taken in the UK and Australia. In Australia, the Prime Minister called on all our State leaders to form a "National Cabinet" which met together regularly (on Zoom) to agree a common strategy. It wasnt the Prime Minister telling the State premiers what to do, they all cooperated to agree a common policy across the country.
It worked very well. I think the fact that all the State premiers agreed on something, whereas they're usually all sniping at each other, made us all think, "whoa, this must be serious!"
The cosy agreement fell apart a bit after the first few months, I'm afraid (too much to ask for them to go on being nice to each other!) but it was enough to break the back of the virus here.
As you know, the UK is made up of individual countries, and they all cooperated too, but action was taken a bit too late, I think.Yep, as Marisa stated, the UK is made up of four ‘nations’ (three Celtic Nations, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland), and England (Anglo-Saxon/Norman). It’s not just diverse cultures across the four nations (let alone the north/south divide in England), in normal times the politics is quite polarised; but these are not normal times:-
• England is ruled by a right-wing Conservative Government (Capitalism).
• Northern Ireland is ruled by an ultra-right wing Government (DUP) in power sharing with the hard-left (Sinn Fein) as part of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (Peace Treaty).
• And Scotland & Wales both have left-wing (Socialist) Governments.
So although it’s a mixed bag of politics and cultures, it’s been very refreshing that ‘all’ nations, cultures and politics in the UK have united to fight a common enemy (Covid-19).
And like Australia, all four nations have pulled together on a common strategy/policy. It hasn’t been one set of uniform Regulations across all four nations (countries) of the UK. In general, the UK Government has taken the lead on the strategy and policy making, based on scientific & medical advice, and the other three nations have generally followed suit, with each nation making their own moderate variations to the English Regulations e.g. variations in travel restrictions, size of social bubbles etc.
For example in England the maximum allowed at funerals and wedding is 30 people, while in Northern Ireland the maximum is 25.
A support bubble in Scotland, in areas where the infection is low, is a maximum of 8 people from three households allowed. While the support bubbles in Northern Ireland is just two households, but can be of any size.
As Marisa stated, the UK was too slow in going into lockdown in March, so the death toll in March/April was very high (one of the worst in the world); but we stayed in lockdown for a long time (from 23rd March to 4th July) which bought the death toll down to just above single daily digits throughout the summer.
The UK went back into full lockdown again at the beginning of November because of a 2nd wave; the current lockdown in England ends on 2nd December, at which time we will revert to local lockdowns (on a three tier system) e.g. areas where the infection remains high will be under strict lockdown, and areas of England where the infection is low will have less restrictions. In Scotland it’s a five tier system e.g. the lower in infection the more relaxed the restrictions.
The current approach seems to be working because (in spite of testing ramped up significantly) the number of new daily cases reached its peak on the 16th November and is now rapidly falling, and daily deaths levelled off a couple of weeks ago, and should start to fall again soon.
One remarkable thing about the Brits is that generally they have been very supportive of the Government (a nation united), and haven’t become complacent. It doesn’t mean we worry about the virus all the time; life goes on. Albeit, many people have become stir-crazy because we’ve been locked up in our own homes, separated from family and friends, for most of the year; and little chance to get out and about because of travel restrictions e.g. the border between Wales and England patrolled by the police to prevent non-essential travel between the two nations; and when we come out of lockdown on the 2nd December travel between the different tiers in England will be prohibited until Christmas week.
Below is a video in August of just our 2nd time out socially since the start of the pandemic in March:-
Covid-19 Stir Crazy Road Trip to Ashton Court Estate, Bristol https://youtu.be/o2fQ1ZWsF_c
But life goes on……… especially as vaccines are now on the horizon; better safe than sorry.
Two numbers I want to share here:
Air pollution kills more than 7 million people each year
Covid has killed 2 million people worldwide.
Would it not make sense to put more attention to air pollution than Covid?Everybody is entitled to his/her own conclusions.
What about this one: With some 7,5 billion people on our planet and an average life expectancy of some 75 years: every year die 7500/75 = 100 million.
Most die simply of being old. Would it not make more sense to put more attention to age?
I don´t know where the numbers on air pollution come from, but i remember a 40 year old survey on NOx and COx concentration in the blood of french police (the flics): Nothing reliable to interpret found because a majority was smoking.
Isn´t something like environmental causes, health issues, fatal accidents already priced into the yearly death statistics? Covid19 adds on top, excess deaths are significant in most of Europe and the Americas.
Let´s not distract from the real issue, please.I know that talking about numbers is tricky. As behind each death, there is a family and personal tragedy.
But I think it is unwise to simply push the number of 7 million people dying of air pollution away by saying, it's already calculated..and seen as an ordinary way to die. It's not.
What I wanted to say with these two numbers is: We've been incredibly occupied the last year with Covid. millions are spent and an incredible effort is taken to battle the virus. Every day there is news about it.
But about air pollution which kills three times as many people as Covid each year, hardly anything is written about it in the newspaper. Why, is speculation. (priorities and the complexity of the problem I guess..)
But would it not be a great thing if the same effort would be put into this huge world problem, to minimize the unnecessary deaths due to air pollution. 7 million is a lot!
The article (a small one) I got my news from was from the Guardian. Who was referring to an article in the Lancet.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment … -in-europePeter, this guardian article you mentioned is talking about 50.000 yearly deaths in Europe caused by air pollution. The current count for Covid deaths in Europe is closing in on 700.000. We can inflate or deflate and question those numbers. There still remains a magnitude inbetween.
I don´t challenge that somewhere on our planet air pollution is really an issue. However in the "western" developed world the virus has shown to be far more deadly than other respiratory causes.
The elephant in the room is the pandemic, not air pollution, with due respect.Sorry for the late reply.
The Guardian article is also talking about: "The WHO estimates air pollution kills more than 7 million people each year"
I was talking globally. And with things like a virus or air pollution, there are not really borders. You should not look locally (Europe, or the western world.... )
Still, my point is, if you compare the media attention about Covid with air pollution then it is obvious that one is seen as more important than the other. (and I'm not sure if it is.)
I understand why it is, but it saddens me that the whole year Covid was the news, (or Trump), and the climate crisis we face, which is far more deadly, is hardly seen as a threat or mentioned.It is always good to be suspicious about media and their focus. However in the past and the present year, the issue is the pandemic, at least for most of us on this planet.
I don´t object if you say that people on some Polynesian island are getting wet feet or worse due to climate change. I also don´t challenge that much of the USA is hit by weather anormalities and that i can´t go ice-scating in Friesland (the German part) any more, too warm in Winter times.
But if we look at matters from a global perspective, lets guess what an alien from outer space would say if he reads statistics on CO2 concentration and global life expectancy.
He would probably think the mankind needs more CO2 in the atmosphere, because little humans prosper and live longer. Statistics are tricky and there is a clear correlation. Ok - don´t take this last one too seriously ...:-)Hi Chris, I didn't really want to go into a fight. Cold Turkey from 4 years Trump arguments, makes you sick and tired of all the bickering.
Good that you're relaxed about it as well.
I just happen to see the two numbers. (the one on Covid and the other one on air pollution on the same day in the same newspaper). And they made me think a bit.
I guess climate change is a subject for a different discussion. And it's a bit more than people on a Polynesian island getting wet feed. It's about resources, wars, refugees, drought, floods, extreme weather etc. A complex world problem.
If aliens looked at this blue marble and its life forms I guess humans are not the most cuddly ones...Peter, indeed, climate change is subject for a different discussion. It gives some comfort that the new US administration is accepting climate change to be real, not denying it like the past administration.
Meanwhile, i watch my oldest teenage grandchildren struggle with the impacts of lockdown. This pandemic takes roughly 2?? years away from the young. The pandemic forces even the most extrovert kids to become internet nerds. They will never regain this period of self development.
.. Air can be cleaned though...Yes, the lockdown has a huge impact on the young. Psychological as well, as touching and hugging each other becomes awkward. (Although at a certain age hugging and kissing is awkward, virus or not...)
But it's also the learning, exams, learning social skills etc. that suffers from the impact.
I was lucky that I could work online the whole year, but my wife who is a professional violinist lost all her income from concerts (Especially the big gigs like the Matheus Passion with easter and Weinachtsauritorium at Christmas..) in 2020, and 2021 doesn't look better.
All the hotels, restaurants and bars are closed here in Spain at the moment. And there is a curfew at 10pm. (Valencia the province I live, wants to make the curfew 8pm) Masks are obligatory everywhere. On the streets, in shops etc.
It's pretty tough.
Not wishing to digress, what Chris is saying is correct:
When I was a kid smog was common place in Britain, even in the countryside (thick pea soupers); in Victorian Britain London was famous for it, and parts of the Midlands (just an hour’s drive north of Bristol) became to be known as ‘The Black Country’ due to the high levels of air pollution caused by coal burning.
Why is it called the Black Country? https://youtu.be/ZeYSWIQqUDw
5th December 1952: The Great Smog of London (which killed up to 12,000 people) begins: https://youtu.be/xajjmbJrfEM
Thankfully those days are over, as we don’t burn coal anymore. Albeit, there is still high levels of air pollution in major cities due to traffic fumes: But thankfully that will soon become a thing of the pass as fossil fuel cars are phased out in Britain and replaced by electric cars; all fossil fuel vehicles are to be banned in the UK by 2030; and as from March this year, all diesel cars will be banned from Bristol, England.
Where the problem is most acute is currently in countries like China, where they are still burning lots of coal, as they transition from an agricultural to an industrial culture; but China is tackling the problem by also transitioning from fossil fuel to ‘Renewable Energy’ as quickly as is feasible; and phasing out fossil fuel vehicles, replacing them with electric cars.1957 saw Nigeria discovering crude oil the first time ever in a place called Olo Biri, a deltaic country on the Niger Delta. Consequently, the number one pollutant become gas flaring. For over 3 decades, gas was flared endlessly over the Niger Delta. Then efforts(laws) were made by the government to channel the gas for export and domestic consumption. The major oil companies like Shell began to compiled. How many deaths occur due to the gas flared is not known, and hence not record. Even the volume of the gas was only estimate in the hundred thousands. But some numbers of bodily illness were suspect. Late last year 2020, a writer here like Bill Gate was worried that the rate of infection, and death was very low in Afrika generaky, and Nigeria specifc. No foreigner has research what account for this.
In Dickens's time, there were not that many people on this planet. With air pollution and climate change, you have to think world wide.
In 1952 there were about 3 billion people on this planet.
Now we live with 7.6 billion! More than twice as much. This makes a huge difference in what the earth and the environment can handle.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanp … 2/fulltextYeah, the world population may well be much higher now than in the past; but it doesn’t alter the fact that air pollution was far worse then than it is now; simply because in the past the:-
1. Burning of fossil fuels (coal) on a massive scale in the factories for power,
2. Burning of fossil fuels in ‘Power Station’ to generate electricity.
3. Burning of fossil fuels (coal) in every home for heating and cooking; and
4. Over the past 70 years the burning of fossil fuels (oil) to run cars.
These days, apart from a few dedicated industries such as iron works, factories no longer burn coal; as these days, throughout the world, factories have now switched to electricity for power.
These days, there are far fewer coal fired power stations around the world, as each country is gradually switching from fossil fuels to ‘Renewable Energy’ to generate electricity.
Decades ago, people switched from burning coal in their homes, to burning ‘natural gas’ for heating and cooking.
Currently fossil fuel cars (oil) are being phased out across the world, and being replaced by electric cars.
So the world population might be much bigger now than it was in the past; but throughout the world pollution is being cut as we move away from the use of fossil fuels and replacing it with ‘Renewable Energy’. In fact, you only need to study the ‘time-line’ charts to see that worldwide air pollution has dropped dramatically over the past 150 years.
Air pollution in a historical perspective https://youtu.be/dL7mVD9g0rU
What are your thoughts on the recent outbreak in India? This mutation appears to be far more virulent than any of the others. Having a bit of education in the science of viruses I had hoped this would not happen. It would appear this virus is taking a very bad path in regard to mutations.
I heard last week the Government here in the US is looking to the FDA to approve the vaccine for age group 12 and up. Our children's hospitals are seeing many more cases of children of all ages being admitted with the new strains.
As a rule, I don't fall into conspiracy theories, or do I ascribe to "if comes". However, this new strain in India has me very worried. Plus, many here are choosing not to be vaccinated. I hope the Government will step up and be honest about what we could be in for with the new strain of the virus. It might encourage many to opt to get the vaccine.
Here in Michigan, we had a case of the new strain diagnosed last week in a man that traveled and returned from India.Okay, where are those supporting the conspiracy theory? What do they say about the new mutating strains from India and other African countries?
I was alluding to the US Government may be keeping the seriousness of the new strain. I have no proof that this is the case. And as rule, I would not go down a path of conspiracies. Our media is covering the outbreak in India, but they say little about the actual strain, they mainly concentrate on the numbers of infected, and the death rate. I don't trust this administration to be truthful. Example --- the huge problems at our border, they say little, and give the impression all is fine when it is not fine. This administration IMO does not answer to the citizens. So, I am not sure they would not downplay the new virulent strain of COVID.
I am sad to say -- I have no trust in the Biden administration. This is my truth
By now in May of 2021 most Western countries have moreless overcome the main waves of the pandemics. The UK seems to have reached herd immunity with their aggressive vaccination program. The USA is not trailing behind and only has to cope with vaccination reluctance. The EU is making progress and at least vulnerable age groups have reached herd immunity levels. South America is still struggling and India is sadly feeling the pain now.
How is it about economic recovery in your country? An anecdote:
In my neighbourhood a new housing project is under way. A lot of construction material is delivered and for the first time i noticed theft of materials (in this case mineral insulation material).
The reason seems to be obvious: Scarcety of construction materials. During the pandemic supply chains were cut off. With a surge in demand worldwide and compromised supply chains and production lay-offs, it it not easy to run up the economy.
On the other hand (at least in G.) all economic indicators are skyrocketing. Skilled personal is hired everywhere. Order books are full, but some companies have temporary lay-offs and production stops because of lack of raw products and materials. Prominently the car industry suffers from a worldwide electronic chip shortage.
While it tooks some time to bring the economy to a halt at the beginning of the pandemic, now the engine is stuttering because of empty supply chains.Interesting article There is a good solution:
https://mysolarperks.com/h-long-do-sol- … ually-last
First of all, a good speech of Boris Johnson. I think he gets connected to the people.
I live in Germany, in the state of Lower Saxony. We had social distancing enforced from 9th of March on. 3 days later, restaurants and hotels were closed. I remember i had to wipe tears from our youngest grandson, he had helped me clean the lawn and in the evening we would go to McDonalds, get me some coffee and him his HappyMeal. MD was closed on Thursday 12th. The 4 year old was very thoughtful. He asked me: Will grocery stores remain open?
Yes the shops remained open. A month later everyone entering a shop or public transport was supposed to wear a mask. Since then i use my old bandana from motorcycle days to adapt to the dresscode. In the week of first social distancing enforcement, we had the first Corona death and some 1200 infected. The R-number was well above 1.
Federal government and state governments had teamed up, no matter which party was in local or federal lead. In April Angela Merkel disappeared for 2 weeks into quarantene, because of contact to an infected.
In Germany we have "Kurzarbeitergeld" short work pay for those, who are layed off temporarily or part time. And we have Unemployment insurance that steps in for 15 to 24 months, if people get layed off permanently. Financial loss for either program is some 20 to 25% for the workers. Federal government raised 1 Trillion Euro or more without much ado to support companies. Then some assistance had to be created for all those selfemployed, musicians, artists, ... that was also solved.
In the beginning there was a lot of concern about how to protect the health care system. By now we have an online monitor of all hospitals in Germany, currently 1600 ICU beds are occupied by Covid19 patients, total number of ICU beds: 32.000. There never was a discussion about ventilators. I found out recently that Federal government had simply ordered 10.000 ventilators from Dräger and other German suppliers at the end of February.
In March first patients from Italy, France and Spain arrived in the county hospital 15 kilometers from our dwelling. Last (i believe an Italien lady) was released 2 weeks ago.
For the past 2 months, stress level in our society was relatively low. (At least when compared to the US).
The German approach to reopening is a little different from the UK. Takes advantage of the highly decentralized structure of the country. Case monitoring is delegated to the county authorities. If more than 50 per 100.000 new infections occur within 7 days, lockdown measures are reactivated for the specific county only. While opening up, currently only 3 counties have passed this number and stay closed. All shops are open, Industry, craftsmen are working. Hospitals already 2 weeks ago resumed regular service with scheduled surgery.
German system works by massive testing and case tracking. Had personal experience with this when local health authorities called me, because my mother (98yrs) had contact to an elderly care worker, who was tested Covid19 positive. All direct contacts had to follow ordered quarantene, all indirect contacts were registered. By now we have less than 20.000 active cases, so system seems to work.
This 50 per 100.000 threshold for new cases was chosen, after it became clear that local authorities were able to trace all new cases up to 50 per week. In my city (roughly the size of Little Rock, Arkansas), we had a total of 200 infected with 1 death (probably died with Corona and not from Corona). So with the new rules in place we would have never needed to lockdown.
A modelling was made to identify the time corridor until when the health system would overload, if a new outbreak gets out of control. Result is some 4 to 5 months lead. To me this is clear analytics and you don´t need the R-factor, which is associated with uncertainty. You simply take real numbers. IMHO this is a more stringend approach than the US and UK are taking. But this only my opinion.
Of course nobody is perfect. But all action taken by government and administration were straight forward and followed analytic decision preparation. I watched the latest press conference. It appeared to me more like an executive board meeting of a large company in crisis than a political stage. And i have execute experience. Anyways total contrast to the bizarre US press conferences.
Never voted for the lady on top. But the way she handles the crisis deserves full respect.
First indicators on economic fallout show, that fairly early measures result in much lower economic casualties. While Sweden (without lockdown) looses some 20 USD/citizen and day, for Germany it is only 10% higher, UK is at 25 USD and the USA is at 45 USD/citizen and day. Reason is high global interconnectivity. If supply chains break, it doesn´t help if have no lockdown at all.Wow, very impressive effort by Germany. I’ve always admired the Germans (and Japan) for their efficiently. Thanks for the details Chris; most interesting and educational read.
Like you, I didn’t vote for our leader (Boris): As Boris is a Conservative and I’m a Socialist our political, economic and social ethos’s are polls apart. However, ‘credit where credit due’ Boris has done an excellent job in uniting the nation, and all political parties, in our fight against the common enemy e.g. Covid-19.
Boris has so far, even been able to garner support from Businesses and Trade Unions, albeit the next week will be testing, as Boris is from Wednesday 13th May requesting non-essential workers in some Industries e.g. manufacturing and the construction to return to work, but for them not to use public transport if possible; which creates some logistic problems that the Trade Unions want clarification on. Also, the details of the safety measures such industries will need to comply with, in order to re-open isn’t being published by the Government until tomorrow (Tuesday 12th May), so there is likely to be a delay as Companies will need time to do their ‘risk assessments’, and introduce any measures necessary, to ensure they meet with the Government’s latest Guidance; and the Trade Unions are also seeking clarification and reassurance from the Government on specific health and safety issues before they give their support to the Government’s plans. So likely to be lots more discussions between businesses, trade unions and the Government over the next few days; but everyone is going in with a positive attitude, so I’m sure the nitty gritty will all get ironed out.
It is quite an achievement for Boris because although he’s not a compulsive liar, until the Covid-19 crisis he had a habit of telling his target audience what he thought they wanted to hear, even if it meant lying. However, since the Covid-19 crisis Boris has been open and honest to the Nation (in his daily briefings), and prepared to admit failure when things go wrong (something he’s not done before); and that ‘Open’ and ‘Honest’ approach has struck a chord with the British Public.
Likewise, in the beginning there was a lot of concern about how to protect the NHS, especially as the British Government was too complacent initially, and did little forward planning. But in the end the Government built the Nightingale Hospitals in 10 days, the one in London with 4,000 beds being the largest hospital in the world; and the Government (after some initial panicking) eventually just commissioned British manufacturers to switch production to making all the ventilators we might need (in a worst case scenario); so we are now awash with ventilators and plenty of spare ICU capacity to meet any major crisis.
Yes, the British Government wants to move forward with ‘track and trace’ similar to the way done in South Korea, as a way of easing the lockdown and getting the economy going again; but the UK is still a long way off from implementing such a scheme nationally. Although I’m sure over the coming weeks the logistics will be sorted out.
Your "Kurzarbeitergeld" sounds quite similar in some ways to the system Boris introduced e.g. anyone employed, but not working e.g. not in an essential job, then the Government has been automatically paying 80% of their normal wage; thus taking a burden off the employers so that the employers is less likely to make their staff redundant. And the British Government is also supporting the self-employed during this crisis by paying them 80% of their average net profit for the last three years.
Although if anyone is made redundant in the UK our unemployment system isn’t as generous as the German scheme; although fortunately thanks to the Government for paying the wages of those staying at home rather than working, redundancies in the UK during the pandemic has been quite low (less than 2 million).Nathan, i believe wilderness is right. We Europeans think different from Americans. That is why we kind of brag about social security and low stress levels.
In the beginning of the Brexit and the Trump presidency i thought Trump and Johnson were alike. Apparently they are not.
In Europe, in the UK there is light at the end of the tunnel. In the US there is so much smoke before the tunnel, they interpret the dim light before the tunnel that they have already passed it.
What puzzles me is the behavior of the American people. Except for some small demonstrations, people stay put. How does this match with the picture wilderness has drawn?
Is it fear? Because with fear you can manipulate people very easily.It matches a few ways, including fear.
Being more independent, Americans are forced to study issues for themselves and make their own decisions. In the case of COVID nearly all the evidence points to quarantine being a good thing. This is nothing new - the word was coined during the Black Death plague centuries ago. Stores also closed then as well, and people (in general) are not stupid. They CAN figure these things out for themselves (given data) - the biggest disagreement is how long it should last.
The second is that have been more than a few generations since the wagon train days, and younger people today were not raised with that extreme independence and responsibility. They are much more willing to simply accept what the Great Gods of Government tell them to do than their grandparents were. This can be seen in the ever increasing levels of the "nanny state", where government is responsible for caring for and providing for all people in stead of them taking the responsibility of providing for themselves. The US is following the same road, albeit some behind, European countries.I think the main point I gleam from your comments (rightly or wrongly) is the Americans’ mistrust of ‘scientific evidence’ and ‘scientific advice’?
In the UK Government Policy is being guided by ‘Scientific and Medical’ Advice, rather than politics; and the economy is given second place to the ‘health’ of the nation.
Since the start of the lockdown in the UK, each day, at 5pm the Government speaks to the Nation, followed by Q&A from the Press. The main briefing itself can last anything from 15 minutes to 30 minutes; but the Q&A with the ‘Press’ can last anything up to an hour.
On the podium during this daily ‘Address the Nation’ Session is a Government Minister in the centre (sometime Boris himself), with a Medical Advisor on one side, and a Scientific Advisor on the other side.
The Scientific and Medical Advisors who participate in this daily ‘Address the Nation’ Session, and who are Advising the Government, are members of SAGE (The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), consisting of over 50 Experts from more than twenty separate institutions.
This ‘Open and Transparent’ approach by the Government has gained the respect of the Nation, and united the Nation, largely because it is nonpartisan; something which seems to be lacking in America?
Short ‘Extract’ (just 90 seconds) from one of the UK Government’s Daily Briefings to the Nation (notable is the striking difference in tone (and message) to any ‘Briefings’ Trump makes): https://youtu.be/0T59A1uXYu8I never mentioned science or scientists. Never meant to.
"Science", "scientists", "scientific evidence" or "scientific advice" has nothing to do with cheerfully following the edicts of a government committee somewhere. It has nothing to do with shirking personal responsibility and giving it to that same government committee and it has nothing to do with expecting government to provide for our personal needs.
On the whole, I find the population at least as willing to follow the lead of science as government is; probably more so as the politics of power do not enter the equation that way.Yep, you didn’t make any mention to science. I think my comment was prejudiced by the negative attitudes of a number of Americans in other related forums on HubPages and with the rough time that Dr Anthony Fauci appears to be having e.g. apparent conflict with Trump and the views of Many States?
The picture I get from across the pond is basically that, as you said “…..the population at least as willing to follow the lead of science as government is; probably more……….”, and that is what I find worrying, in that governments (State or Federal) in the USA don’t seem to be taking the science seriously enough e.g. seemingly relaxing the ‘social Distancing’ rules far too soon and by too much at a time when the infection and death rates are still rising in many States in America; risking the spread of the virus getting out of control in a months’ time, as infections and deaths start to rise more sharply?
I do appreciate that a lot of this may be due to the ‘Wild West Spirit’ engrained into the psyche of Americans, which you described in such great detail (greatly appreciated); and the problem that the perspective from across the pond tends to differ (for various reasons) from Americans views, which can make understanding and appreciating each other’s views that much more difficult.I personally have a problem when "science" is touted as the end-all and be-all of controlling the pandemic. Mankind has known for centuries how to control the spread of disease and there is nothing "scientific" or new about it - it boils down to quarantine, whether total or partial (such as "social distancing"), and that word was coined during the Black Death plague of the 1300's when travelers and the sick were removed from society.
On the other hand we have come a long way in understanding how economies work and what happens when they fail (call it "science" if you wish)...but that knowledge is being set aside and ignored in the intense desire to stop COVID from spreading. IMO, that science is an integral part of our response and must be included in how we respond, but all too often is is not.
Time will tell whether an earlier slacking off of our quarantine is justified as the right response or not - certainly the difference of opinions does not carry the weight of knowledge yet.
When it comes to varying responses in the US, you must remember that we are not a single entity in this matter; that states, not the federal government, ultimately controls the response. States, too, do not have unlimited power, but they certainly have more that the feds do when it comes to locking down the population into a quarantine situation.Yep, during the time of the Black Death diseases were not understood, and there was no science available. The only thing they understood then was the importance of ‘quarantine’ and ‘social distancing’.
The Great Plague of London (from 1665 to 1666) was the last time the Black Death plagued England, contained almost exclusively in London through ‘Quarantine’ and ‘Social Distancing’; but also thinks to the sacrifice of the villagers of Eyam, Derbyshire (160 miles from London) where the plague spread to from London, the villagers in Eyam helped to prevent the Black Death from spreading to other parts of England by quarantining the village from the rest of England for almost 15 months.
The Plague Village of Eyam (1665-1666): https://youtu.be/3-ACLPr-xkE
The science I refer to is our limited but growing understanding of Covid-19, how infectious it is, how it’s spread, rate of infection (The ‘R’ factor), the fatality rate for given groups etc., all information which can be used to aid Governments in formulating their policies, to combat the spread of Covid-19 and to reduce the death rate to manageable levels.
Yep, I agree economies are important, and these days economic experts do have a good understanding on how they work; albeit there are different economic ‘models’ dependent on your politics and philosophy. And yes, as you indicate, most countries have sacrificed their economics “in their intense desire to stop COVID from spreading.”.
And Yep, as you say “Time will tell whether an earlier slacking off of our quarantine is justified as the right response or not - certainly the difference of opinions does not carry the weight of knowledge yet.”
Yep, I appreciate that in the USA it’s the States and not the Federal Government who has the ultimate control in by how much they quarantine the population, and how and when they ease that quarantine. It’s the same the world over:-
• The different States in Australia are acting Independently of each other; with tight internal border controls.
• The different States in Germany have the final say, but unlike Australia and the USA they are working together with the co-ordinated help of Angela Merkel.
• The Four Nations of the UK each have the final say, and although (as from today, Wednesday 13th May) England is easing it’s lockdown while the other three nations (Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) are taking a more cautious approach; during this time of crisis those other (Celtic) nations are giving their support to Boris (for the sake of unity).
I just hope that the various States in the USA, in their desire to kick start their economy, that they don’t lose sight of the science e.g. the dangers of covid-19 spreading out of control if the quarantine is eased by too much, too soon.Agreed that understanding disease and specifically the COVID virus can help us release our lockdown. At least it can if the people permit it.
As far as the kick start; I'm becoming increasingly concerned that other nations, along with the US, will not start easing off soon enough. The dangers of a failed economy are well known (the world has seen nations undergoing that more than we want to), and they are not pretty. Fear keeps us from acknowledging or discussing them (fear and politics) unless we are already directly impacted (job loss, hungry, etc.); only then, it seems, does anyone want to consider those very real dangers.
When major airlines fail, for instance, what happens to the huge tourism industry? It fails, and with it the taxes it produces. What happens when we can no longer keep roads and bridges in repair (the US already has a big problem there) and trucks carrying foodstuffs can no longer travel efficiently if at all? What happens when cities go broke and can no longer pay their real essential services; services such as police and fire, clean water, garbage removal, and so on and so on? We've seen what happened when banks and manufacturing were in big trouble, just a few years ago - what happens when there are no resources to restore them and it wouldn't matter anyway as no one has money to buy foreclosed homes, cars, refrigerators, etc.? Heck, what happens when refrigerator and air conditioner manufacturers go under? A quarter of the US is virtually unlivable without air conditioning and refrigerators are an absolute necessity any more (I don't think cutting ice chunks from the river in winter and selling them to keep our underground pantries will work).
A failed economy doesn't sound so bad...until the sum total of the problems is looked at, and then it can be a nightmare that our pandemic pales against. IMHO, and we are fast approaching the point that recovery will take years and years, if it is possible at all.I appreciate what you say, and yes major sections of Industry will be devastated including, and most particularly, the airlines, and the leisure and hospitality industries e.g. hotels, pubs, nightclubs, restaurants, cafes and restaurants etc., many will go bankrupt and it will have a major negative effect on tourism, which is a major part of economies like Britain.
There are however difference between the USA and other countries around the world. I can only speak authoritatively about Britain, but there will be similarities in other European countries:-
In the UK the British Government has taken the decision to raise the bulk of the money it needs for this crisis by selling Government bonds (raising the National Debt), it is a strategy that has worked, which is liked by ‘investors’ and which has helped to strengthen the £ against the $.
In the UK Local Governments are still getting their Domestic Local Taxes (Rates), as most British people have money to spend e.g. if not working or on welfare then getting 80% of the normal wages paid by the Government; obviously businesses will be struggling to pay their local taxes (Business Rates), but small to medium businesses are eligible for cheap loans, and grants from the Government, so money is still flowing. And where Local Governments do need extra help, the Government is giving them grants; albeit not as much as Local Governments would like, so they are a bit stretched, but they are coping.
In the UK, infrastructure e.g. road and rail etc. is all Government owned and maintained anyway; and Keynesian economics is effective in creating jobs and stimulating the economy during times of Recession e.g. Government spending on infrastructure; albeit it’s an economics Conservative Governments usually shun.
Also, what you describe is the social and economic devastation experienced across Europe and in Britain during the 2nd world war, when for example in Britain Hitler’s bombs destroyed over 2 million British homes (10% of housing), wrecked infrastructure e.g. roads, rail, shipping ports, key industries etc. all major targets of Germany’s nightly bombing over Britain. Yet, in spite of the fact that in the aftermath of the 2nd world war Britain was almost bankrupt, and had to rebuild from the ashes, with the help of loans (mainly from the USA) on the scale that this crisis has created (National Debt) the Labour Government (Socialist Government) started to rebuild Britain. It took 15 years to do, and when the Conservatives got back into power in the 1950’s they continued the work Labour started e.g. the Conservatives were instrumental in being able to build high standard, good quality, ‘Social Housing’ for the poor for a third of the normal price by streamlining the build design and construction.
Besides, it’s not that the British economy is at a standstill. The hospitality industries and airlines etc. may be taking a hefty hit, which is likely to take years to recover from but in the UK about 35% of workers are working in what’s classified as ‘essential services’, and 45% are working from home. So currently it’s only 25% of the British workforce that is standing idle at home and some of those e.g. those in manufacturing and construction, and Garden Centres were given the green light by the Government on the 13th May to return to work, if it’s safe for them to do so in accordance with strict Government Guidance on Social Distancing and hygiene etc.
So although the British economy is in Recession, it’s a long way from becoming a failed economy e.g. it’s proving to be surprisingly resilient.
Yes I (and many Brits) too had the same opinion at the beginning of Brexit and the Trump Presidency that Boris and Trump were alike “Tweedledum and Tweedledee”; but as you said, they are not.
I also agree with you that in Europe, and in the UK (in spite of Brexit) there is light at the end of the tunnel; which (from a European perspective) I don’t see in America.
I too find the behaviour of the American people puzzling, and therefore value wilderness’s input, as hopefully it will help me to gain some better understanding of the American people?
In writing this I’ve deliberately not yet read wilderness’s response to your comments, as I didn’t want my thoughts in this comment to be influenced by wilderness’s feedback!
Update May 13th: Things return to normal (almost). Today i made a good walk and was out for lunch with my wife. Met a friend on the way. Decided to sit together and talk. Restaurants in G. are required to record name, address and phone no. of at least one person sitting at a table. That is to facilitate the tracking if necessary.
I resume my private business by arranging appointments in other parts of the country. No more state to state travel restrictions.
4 counties are under lockdown. Outbreak hotspots showed up in meat processing plants (industrial butchers). Work in those plants is mostly done by migrant workers from Eastern Europe who live in very crowded, low standard conditions to save money. Government already declared there will be a change in rules to get rid of this. Will cost more, so meat prices are likely to go up.
Apparently something similar is happening in the US meat processing industry, though certainly no migrant workers from Bulgaria involved.Thanks for the update on Germany. Interesting to hear the Restaurants in Germany are open; we are a long way off from anything like that in Britain.
As you probably know, today (13th May) is the first day of Boris easing restriction on the lockdown in England; but the three Celtic Nations (Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) haven’t implemented those changes yet e.g. taking a more cautious approach.
The changes made are only modest (compared to what other countries are doing to ease the lockdown restrictions), but they are complex, which caused so initial confusion; but with the aid of a 50 page document published by the Government, explaining the changes in detail, most people have got an understanding of it.
Just to give some examples of some of the main changes:-
• Previously, no one (outside of the family unit) was allowed to visit or meet anyone else at their home or in public e.g. you were prohibited in visiting relatives in their home, or friends in public. Also, previously you were only allowed out of your home once a day, for a short period, to exercise locally; and you were prohibited from going out to buy non-essential items.
Now there is no restrictions on going out to exercise provided you observe ‘Social Distancing’ of 2 metres.
The new changes as from 13th May: You still cannot visit a friend or relative in their home, but you are now allowed to meet one other person in public provided you both are on your own and provided you observe the minimum 2 metre distance (Social Distancing).
• Another major change as from 13th May is that workers in manufacturing and construction industries are now encouraged to go back to work, provided their employer can fulfil strict Government guidance on ‘Social Distancing’ and Health and Safety in the workplace; and Garden Centres are now allowed open, provided they can also meet the Governments strict guidance on ‘Social Distancing’ etc. but they should avoid using public transport if possible, and are encouraged to either use their car, cycle or walk to work.
The precise details on strict Government guidance that employers have to meet were thrashed out by the Trade Unions and the Government on Monday of this week; so the Government has the full support of the Unions, and fortunately on Tuesday the Businesses gave their approval and support of the details thrashed out by the Trade Unions and Government.
It’s the first time in my life (and I think in the whole of British History) that a Conservative Government and the Trade Unions have worked together so amenably.
Another turn up for the books is after the Government’s meeting with the Trade Unions on Monday, is that the 80% of normal wages that those not able to work, is now being extended to October; albeit, as from August the Government wants Businesses to chip in on some of that cost. Before the Government’s meeting with the Trade Unions on Monday there was speculation that the scheme would be reduced to 60% from June and end in September; so the fact that the Conservative Government has agreed to the Trade Unions requests without question is another first!
From the start of the lockdown, until 13th May the only businesses allowed to operate were ‘essential services’ e.g. banks, post office, supermarkets, DIY stores and off-licences (liquor stores in the USA). Garden Centres were not classified as an essential service, and therefore closed, until now.
Some leisure industries, and smaller shops, may be allowed to open later in the year e.g. in about 6 weeks if the ‘R’ (Rate of Infection) remains below 1; but others like pubs and nightclubs etc. are not likely to be allowed to re-open for a long time to come yet.
One fascinating point that has transpired from the lockdown stems from the Government’s advice that people should work from home where possible. Before the pandemic Britain was moving in that direction anyway e.g. for the last five years before I took early retirement I worked from home 3 days a week, and only went into the office 2 days a week. Flexible working was introduced in Britain (on a voluntary basis) back in 1974, and ever since has gradually become more established throughout British Industry over the decades; so much so that in 2014 the Conservative Government passed a law making it a legal right for employees to ‘request’ flexible working.
How Two Major British Companies, Ford UK (Car manufacturer) and John Lewis (Retailer) Deal with the Flexible Working Laws in the UK: https://youtu.be/2Qs0EL6JWD0
Therefore, by this year, before the pandemic, 12% of the British workforce was working from home anyway. Since the lockdown that figure has jumped to 45%; which has obviously been a great help to the economy.This is something I don't quite understand. We have the same thing with Landlords and renters, and mortgage holders and homeowners.
If a landlord has no income coming in, who will do repairs and maintenance? Who will mow the lawn as a simplistic example, and who will fix the broken toilet or faucet?
Much the same with banks; without income, how will they pay their workers? Yet the cry has been going out to simply forgive these things...without any consideration at all towards how the landlord/bank/whatever will survive to provide the service the same people are demanding from them.I can only speak for the UK. In the UK, assuming you haven't been made redundant, if you are not working then the British Government is paying 80% of what you normally earn. Therefore, as the vast bulk of people are either still working (essential services) or being paid 80% of the normal wages by the Government, then most people in the UK currently have enough income to buy food, and pay all their bills including their rent or mortgage. So in the UK its not an issue.
And for those who have been made unemployed (which is less than 2 million) e.g. because their Company has gone bankrupt, then they get unemployment benefit from the Government (Welfare State), and although the Government doesn't pay your mortgage if you're unemployed they do pay your rent and you Local Tax (Rates), and as the NHS is free at the point of use for everyone, you don't have to worry about health insurance. So what little money you get on unemployment benefit is enough to live on, and pay all essential bills, without living in poverty.That hardly seems fair - if you rent you will have it paid, but if you're paying a mortgage you will be homeless.
But in any case, our (current) unemployment should be plenty to live on. The problem seems to be that that unemployment is not being paid out - people have been asking for weeks and weeks with no result. While I understand that the unemployment dept. is very badly overwhelmed with new cases, it still seems out of line. I believe that the guidelines/requirements from the federal govt. (which is paying a portion) failed to give clear instructions; couple with too many applicants at once the checks are simply not getting out.
Which leaves renters unable to pay rent; they have had zero money (or perhaps the $1200 "stimulus check") for over a month. Food lines are tremendous as there isn't enough to buy food, let alone pay rent.
But not sure that putting the landlord out of business, whereupon the bank takes the building and kicks everyone out, is the answer. I don't have one, but starving out the one providing the home isn't reasonable either.Yep, tell me about it. We bought our own home on a mortgage, and one of the fears of homeowners in Britain who are still paying their mortgage, in the event that you lose your job, and become unemployed long term, is that you will be forced to sell your house and live off the proceeds before the Local Government will give you a Council House (if you become homeless), and before you’ll be able to claim welfare. But on the converse side (unlike the USA) workers who have been employed by their employer for more than two years are protected by comprehensive ‘employment protection laws’ e.g. very difficult for an employer to sack someone; so there is a certain amount of job security.
Although I had a good job all my working life, and therefore was able to pay our mortgage off before I retired (so that we now own our house outright) some of our friends were not so lucky e.g. although they started off like us, working and paying a mortgage, they ended up having to sell their house when they became long term unemployed, and ended up in a Council House and on Welfare. But at least they do have a roof over their heads, and sufficient welfare to enjoy a reasonable standard of living.
What you describe for the USA, is a different picture to the UK. The furlough system in the USA is different to the furlough systems in Europe e.g. in the USA people being put on furlough during this crisis have to claim unemployment, which is taking ages to sort out because the system is overwhelmed, and the $1,200 cheque isn’t going to go far, when people get it, and the unemployment benefits is going to be a fraction of what they were earning.
Whereas, in the UK, people put on furlough are automatically paid 80% of their normal wage by the Government e.g. the Government pays the money to the Companies and the Companies pays their workers (staying at home and not working) that money on time as they normally would when paying wages; no delay because it’s the same infrastructure for paying wages, and those people on furlough (aka ‘gardening leave’ in the UK) receive a similar income to what they were getting e.g. their disposable income is the same; which is beneficial to the economy.
The difficulties come with the self-employed and unemployed. For those who have lost their jobs since the lockdown e.g. where businesses have gone bankrupt (less than 2 million in the UK), there is a six weeks delay before they get their unemployment benefit; but when they do get it paid, it is back dated to when they first became unemployed. So if they can’t pay their utility bills e.g. electricity, water, sewage etc., on time, the utility Companies know that they will get paid the following month, so they are very understanding. And as previously said, if you are unemployed in Britain, the Government pays your local taxes and rent anyway; so everybody gets paid.
The self-employed (like my son) have proved to be the trickiest for the Government, because (right from the start of the lockdown) the Government agreed to treat the self-employed the same as employees who can’t work e.g. pay 80% of their average net profit (based on the previous three years). And because that has to be calculated by Inland Revenue, the self-employed will not get paid until June (because of the time it will take to do all the calculations); but it will be back dated to the 23rd March (start of the lockdown). So it is a bit tough on the self-employed at the moment e.g. having to wait three months before they get paid by the Government (but it will be back dated), but like most people, most self-employed will have cash in the bank, and if they don’t have enough funds, most people have credit cards that they can borrow on in the short term. And it’s not as if they need huge sums of cash, they only really need cash for food, and perhaps rent to tie them over until they get their back-pay from the Government in June e.g. mortgage companies and utility companies in the UK are quite accommodating and are quite happy to wait three months, knowing that they will eventually get their money.
In the UK, banks foreclosing on the landlords, and kicking everyone out, isn’t the done thing. In the UK banks know what the situation is and are quite happy to be reasonable and wait for their money. Besides in the UK a landlord can’t just kick someone out e.g. in the UK tenants are protected by laws, so the process of getting a tenant evicted requires a ‘court order’, and can take anything up to six months in normal times.
Wilderness, you raise an interesting point. In G. we have similar rules in place. Tenents are allowed to postpone their rent payments until June or July to meet ends in these crisis times. Mortgage annuity payments are also allowed to be postponed.
You are right that landlords and/or banks may be affected. This is theory. My small world reality is: Some of my private business is being a landlord. None of my tenents have failed to meet their obligations yet. Same as i keep my annuity payments going.
As tax authorities are instructed not to insist on collecting taxes, i had asked my tax counselor if i could take advantage. Answer: Don´t abuse the system. Better keep things straight. Probably this is what 99% of people, tenents, businesses do.
As we have this issue with outbreaks in (2) meat processing plants, German government is shifting test strategies. So from now on, whereever an outbreak is detected, circumstances are analyzed and extrapolated. In this case it means: All 32.000 employees of German meat factories get testet.
Just read in the newspaper: Volkswagen had restarted their lines last week but already has to shutdown again. 2 reasons: lack of demand and missing supply chains. The economic fallout will haunt us much, much longer.The UK only started to ease the restrictions for the first time yesterday, by trying to encourage workers in manufacturing and the construction industries to go back to work, and for garden centres to re-open. So its too early to say how successful that will be and what impact on the virus will be; so any further easing will certainly not take place until June at the earliest.
However, one major advancement made today in the UK for easing the lockdown and restarting the economy, is that the UK Government has finally approved the 'antibody' test kit it wants to use. There's been a long delay in the British Government approving the antibody test kit to be used in Britain because the British Government was not prepared to accept anything that was less than perfect e.g. 100% accurate with no risk of 'false positives', something which has plagued so many other antibody test kits.
The anti-body test kit (which is planed by the British Government to be fundamental in getting people back to work) which has now been approved by the British Government, is a kit developed by Sweden; and under intensive trials in the UK it has proven to be 100% accurate.
So there is perhaps light at the end of the tunnel?Nathan, i hope the anti-body tests are reliable.
As far as i understand, there are two issues with the reliability.
- indifference in detecting corona-virus anti-bodies. Some, all or a few tests are not able to indentify Covid19. That is why all results from anti-body mass testing are treated with caution. Just recently a study from Spain was released that indicated a magnitude more infected and cured than officially registered. Germany has performed similar tests which had given comparable results to Spain. https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/14/cor … th-england
However those studies are heavily discussed and challenged in G.
- another issue is the time lag between infection and development of antibodies (heard of 2 weeks time). Having no anti-bodies does not mean you are not infected. On the contrary an asymptomatic infected can run around with a negative anti-body test result, but in reality being highly infectious.
In G. official numbers do not rely on anti-body tests. However you can buy the testkits on every corner for some 60 Euro, if you want to.
Stay safe and healthy.Yep I know, that's why it's breaking news in the UK e.g. the NHS/Government have so far rejected all previous kits because they have been unreliable; whereas the UK Government have independently verified to thier satisfaction that this kit (unlike other kits) is 100% accurate, and also unlike other kits, gives 'no false positives'.
The NHS has high standards, and they will, and do, reject any kit or equipment that does not meet thier standards. But what the NHS/Government are going to do with this kit, I don't know; no doubt we'll soon find out in the Government's daily briefing.
Certainly this kit is NOT a home testing kit, and not cheap either:-
The short video below sums it up:-
UK Developed Game Changing First Antibody Test Kit For Covid-19 With 100% Accuracy https://youtu.be/6XxOshFlZtY
NY and NJ are already beginning to loosen the restrictions here. This is a tribute to all who obeyed the medical advice and wore their masks and gloves and to the first responders who were out in full force giving up their own personal time with their families.
These were the 2 states hardest hit and now there has finally been a ray of hope.
As for the economy, Mother Nature always is in control. Humans hate to admit that.
For a long time, families were torn apart by greed of those who are now in a kind of virus limbo as Mother Nature intended.
When all people do is work 2 and 3 jobs and still cannot make ends meet, maybe this is an eye opener to what is really most important.
As for the greedheads in this country, it was long past time for the price gouging, the stiffing of employees and customers to end.
I laugh at these phonies who are now pretending to be generous benefactors of business giving out discounts and reducing prices. They can do it now but they couldn't before? Why?
I am a firm believer that all good things come to an end sooner or later.
Right now the economy is not as bad once you face the reality that the 1% still have $62 trillion sitting offshore in tax free accounts they earned in profits here in the US.
That should be repatriated but greedy people would rather see bread lines than give up one dime of that $62 trillion.
These greedy people would much rather deplete SS, Medicare and Medicaid than give up their offshore treasure troves.
When you consider they no longer can rely on employees to earn that kind of profit for them, I am thankful Mother Nature has put a nail in their greedy coffins.How are NY & NJ faring now; considering that the pandemic in the USA has now spiralled out of control?
Update Germany End of July:
It was made public, that the first German Corona infected person had lost his Covid-19 antibody immunity already some months ago.
The person got infected at a business meeting at company Webasto in Bavaria at the end of January. Attending was a Chinese employee who had unknowingly carried the virus from China to Germany. All had mild symptoms, but for contact no.1 immunity was gone only 3 months later.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-compan … 1583491807
The early outbreak at Webasto drew a lot of attention, because it showed what good management and swift action could accomplish. Also the first person was identified as well as how the infection spreading took place.
Looks like we should not rely to much on antibodies.
Currently in Germany active cases are rising again. People coming back from holidays and negligence of hygiene directives seem to be major causes. Probably by next week we will have mandatory testing at reentry to Germany. As everywhere, people get wary of wearing masks in closed public areas (shoppinh malls, stores, ...)
Whenever a local outbreak occurs, within hours remote test-sites are set up (even in small villages). Test probes are rushed to regional labs (seems to be an advantage of a highly decentralized structure).I see Germany is doing the same thing in regard to checking antibodies as the US. two months ago I received the antibodies test to determine if I had antibodies, I came back positive for IgG antibodies. This means at one point I had COVID. I was requested to come back six weeks later, which I have done. I was told I still had IgG antibodies. In six weeks I will be checked one more time. I was told when I first took the antibody test that it would be a blood draw not a finger stick. Apparently a finger stick is not as reliable.
It sounds as if Germany is doing all the right things to keep the COVID curve down.The issue with antibodies seems to be that Corona antibodies are also found in the blood of people who only had a servere cold.
In April/May a study was published in Germany about infection numbers in a certain county (Gangelt, Heinsberg). That study was based on antibody detection. An initial result suggested, that far more people had been infected than expected, supporting herd immunity. So in that state the "Ministerpräsident" (governor) wanted to open up early. However the study did not withstand scientific scrutiny. The leading scientist was heavily critisized for numerous errors and even taken to court.
Germany is not using antibody tests for Corona case follow up. However it is investigating how long antibodies persist in prooven Corona patients.
While there is no "season" for Corona, it is well likely that some people may catch the virus multiple times.I wonder how many more citizens will get their flu shot those fall. I see there are 3 to possibly 4 flu viruses expected to circulate. I would think that all health agencies would be prudent to run a vigorous campaign encouraging all to get the flu shot this fall.
One of the virus strains expected once again is A H1N1 which has similar symptoms to COVID. I think we will be in for lots of confusion this fall, although tests are available to test for the different flu that will visit us. I can imagine the run on ER's.In the UK the Government has already laid out its plans for this year’s round of flu vaccination:-
50% of the British population will get the ‘free’ flu vaccinations on the NHS; as follows:-
• Everyone in the UK over the age of 50.
• Teenagers.
• Everyone in vulnerable Groups e.g. people with underlying health conditions that put them at high risk from the flu.
The latest update from the UK is Boris’s obsession in encouraging people to lose weight because of his near death experience with Covid-19 at the height of the pandemic in April.
When Boris had his near death experience with Covid-19 in April, the most likely cause is that he is overweight e.g. being obese puts you in the high risk bracket for dying from Covid-19.
Because of Boris’s experience he has now become obsessed in encouraging obese people in Britain to lose weight, to help reduce their risk of death from Covid-19, and as part of that obsession he introduced new spending plans and new Legislation yesterday (28th July) as follows:-
• People who need to do more exercise or lose weight will now be able to get a free prescription on the NHS to hire bicycles (in the same way that infirm people can get Zimmer frames, and other essential aids from the NHS for free). Just in the same way that you get a prescription from your doctor for medicine.
• A trial scheme (pilot) is being tested, where anyone who is interested in cycling can get £50 ($65) ‘bicycle Repair vouchers’ (Government Funded) to encourage people to cycle.
• Thousands of miles of NEW cycle lanes are to be created across Britain (Government funded), adding to the existing 12,739 miles of cycle tracks that already exist in the UK.
• Government Assistance will be available for people to get electrically powered bicycles if they don’t want peddle power.
• More parking spaces for bicycles is to be made at train stations, and storage space for bicycles on busses and trains.
• More parking spaces are to be installed at transport hubs, in towns and city centres, and outside public buildings. And money raised will be used to build bike hangars and on street storage for bicycles for people who don’t have space to keep their bike at home.
• The Highway Code will be strengthened to give better protection for pedestrians and cyclists e.g. raising safety standards.
• Government Funding to create 12 ‘Mini Hollands’ around Britain, of which at least one will be a ‘zero-emission transport city centre’ e.g. traffic free zones in city centres which cycles and pedestrians can use safely.
Boris does have some experience in this area e.g. the Boris Bike which he introduced in London when he was the elected Mayor of London before becoming an MP.
The definitive 2 minute guide to Boris Bikes: https://youtu.be/J0H73dngFtk
This badly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD9XWTbbSGA
- "Measures implemented just two weeks earlier could have saved 90% of the dead in America."
- "A country the size of the US should expected to have five times the amount of deaths than South Korea. Instead, the rate is 250 times greater."Yep, very informative video: It’s interesting that not only Trump, but many American’s think of Coronavirus as a flu, when it’s not. Unlike flu, Coronavirus is not seasonal e.g. unlike flu which prefers colder weather, Coronavirus thrives in any climate; as we’ve seen the world through. So contrary to many American News Media (which I’ve seen) suggesting that it would subside in the summer and come back again in the autumn as a second wave is a misconception; it’s here all year round, until, and unless, decisive action is taken to minimise the spread, and ultimately a reliable and safe vaccine is approved and widely distributed.
On this note, I noted the recent opinion polls indicating that once a vaccine is developed that one third of Americans will refuse to be vaccinated against covid-19?
Update on the latest UK Government’s SOFT (Successes, Opportunities, Failures and Threats) with respect to their fight against Covid-19.
NB: SOFT is a feedback loop Britain’s Government Departments uses to monitor progress in an ongoing Project as a tool to help regularly tweak a Project and keep it on course.
#1. OPPORTUNITY: The possibility of having 30 million vaccines for Britons (half the British Population) by October is looking promising; but obviously no guarantees at this stage as it all depends on the outcome of the large scale trials in October.
SUMMERY:
• Work by Oxford University and Imperial College London University on vaccines are progressing well.
• Phase one participants of the Oxford University trials received their vaccine dose earlier this week.
• Clinical trials in June.
• Mass trials are scheduled for October.
• The pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca (a British-Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical company based in Cambridge, England) has finalised a "global licensing agreement" with Oxford University with the UK’s Government support.
• The agreement between the UK’s Government and AstraZeneca is that if the June trials are successful AstraZeneca will manufacture 100 million doses by September, of which the UK will get the first 30 million doses, and the remainder 70 million to be made available to developing countries at a low (affordable) cost to them.
• In conjunction with this the UK Government is currently constructing a ‘Vaccines Manufacturing Innovation Centre’ due to open in the summer of 2021, which in the future will be capable of producing enough vaccine doses for the entire UK population within six months.
#2. SUCCESS: Just 170 Covid-19 related deaths recorded yesterday: The lowest since the lockdown two months ago; and part of the recent continuing downward trend.
#3. THREAT: Track, Trace and Isolate:
• Back in March the UK Government quickly abandoned its initial attempts to ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ because by that time the virus was spreading faster than it could be isolated because the British Government didn’t act decisively enough at the start.
• Since then there has been growing pressure on the Government to adopt the Google and Apple app which has been so successful in South Korea and across the world in ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’. However, it hasn’t because the Google and Apple app operates in a decentralised way and the Government wants an app that pools the data centrally mainly to better provide stats that the Government can use in policy making for fighting the virus!
• Instead the UK Government got the NHS to produce a bespoke tracking app that provides the statistical data in the way the Government wants it.
• That NHS tracking app, called NHSX, has been on trial on the Isle of Wight since the 5th May.
• The Isle of Wight is an ideal testing ground for such an app because it’s a small island off the south coast of England, separated from mainland England by sea, with a contained population of over 140,000 people.
• The trials have been thwart with problems, mainly due to security constraints in modern smartphones that only Google and Apple can work around, and privacy concerns by the public that may deter some people from using the app!
• Nevertheless the NHS has been tweaking the software app to make it work, in spite of the technical issues e.g. part of the reason for the trials on the Isle of Wight is to iron out any technical issues. And also, the Government is going to great lengths to stress that ‘privacy and confidentiality’ of personal data will be guaranteed.
• For the tracing app to be of any great benefit as a tool for ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ the Government is looking for at least 60% of UK citizens to use the tracking app on their mobile phones. Initially (in the first week of the trials) only about 40% of citizens on the Isle of Wight downloaded the app, but I think the take-up has increased since then.
• In any event, if the trials on the Isle of Wight are successful then the Government is planning to role the app out (in its modified format) nationwide, across the whole of the UK by the end of May. Albeit, some ‘experts’ advising the Government are keen for the Google and Apple to be used instead (as Plan B) because it has been extensively tried and tested throughout the world, and has proved extremely successful in helping South Korea keeping their country virtually virus free.
So the main threat, if the NHS tracing app goes live in the UK at the end of the month is that not sufficient people will use it because of fears of breach of ‘privacy and confidentiality’; but time will tell!
The way the NHS tracing app works is that if a user becomes unwell with symptoms of Covid-19, they can choose to let the app inform the NHS. They will then be offered testing, and an anonymous alert will inform other app users with whom they spent time over the previous few days. In conjunction with this 18,000 contact tracers will be hired to ‘track and trace’ and help ‘isolate’ (of which 17,000 have already been hired in preparation of the app going live UK wide soon).
Pros and Cons of the NHS Tracing App (News Report just 1 week before it went on Trial in the Isle of Wight): https://youtu.be/5yYbsqvhe7cNathan, in my understanding at least in Germany the Corona tracing app is not used widely.
Tracing is done on county level by local authorities, who set aside dedicated staff to indentify contacts of Covid19 positives. As testing directives have shifted, the app is more of a brute force instrument and not what is needed now. (Very low hit rate on infected, we are searching the needle in the haystack, so we better use a metal detector than our eyes and fingers..)
For example by personal contact to our "Gesundheitsamt" i got the information, that the only 5 people still infected in our city are from within a "clan", a large, multigerneration family with migrant background from the Middle East.
This kind of information is concentrated to state and federal level to organise testing. So - if this type of infection scheme is discovered somewhere else in the country, decisions may be made to test all "clan" family members.
This already happened to the meat industry, where all 30something thousand were tested.
What i am saying: Like in a chess game, the opening game is easy, in the middle game brute force doesn´t help, you need other strategies.
Green areas (= zero infected within 7 days) are growing.
Yep, Germany’s approach is very effective (as proven by the achievement); in typical German style (which I admire), very efficient.
Yep, the tracing app is blunt instrument, which is why the UK Government is so keen on making it more resourceful by using their own bespoke version rather than the Google/Apple version e.g. with the Google/Apple version the data is ‘decentralised’, it remains on the persons own smart phone (privacy and security), while the Government want to gather that information from the smart phones and store it in a central database to provide additional up-to-date information on the concentration of infected people, where they’ve been and how many other people they’ve been in contact with; so as to add to data already being collected from other sources.
Yep, reliant on a tracing app alone would be like “searching the needle in the haystack”, which is why the UK Government sees it as just one of ‘Three Key’ Resource to aid “Track, Trace and Isolate”, the 2nd ‘key resource’ being the 18,000 contact tracers the Government plan to hire; they’ve already employed 17,000, whom I assume are currently being trained for when the Government starts ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ in earnest. I’m not sure what the 3rd key resource tool is, they didn’t specify it in yesterday’s briefing; but at least they do have a ‘plan’!
Where I think the British Government is failing is that it has spent too much time in preparation, rather than acting fast e.g. Britain should have been hiring and training contact tracers on a large scale much sooner, and they should already be operational; whereas, it looks as if this next phase of fighting Covid-19 may not be fully operational until the 31st May at the earliest e.g. lost time.
However, once the UK Government gets into full swing, which it hopes to achieve by the end of month, it does want to be able to produce live, interactive, up-to-date, detailed and accurate maps like your example; to give the Government the option to be flexible in its decision making and targeting etc. The source data to help the UK Government to build up such detailed maps being fed in from many sources e.g. the NHS tracing app (if it’s trials on the Isle of Wight are successful), ONS data, data from the NHS and other bodies, and updated data from the ‘contact tracers’ etc.
Arthur e.g. my son's name is Nathan (gift), and I named my websites 'nathanville' after the model railway village I and my son built in our loft, when our son was a kid.Good News: No New Cases Reported in East England, including London, in over 24 hours.
Also, Boris has now decided to increase the number of Human Tracers from 18,000 to 25,000; most already recruited, and full training underway to go live with full scale 'Track, Trace and Isolate' from the 1st June.Indeed, good news.
Do you know why recovered are not counted in the UK? You don´t get a clear picture without overview on active cases.Good question, it was initially, but as an oversight, deaths in care homes and at home were not counted in the Official figures during the first six week of the pandemic; that error has since been corrected so the daily figures now reported do show deaths in hospitals, in care homes and at home.
However, while it’s relatively easy to know how many in hospitals recover from Covid-19, knowing how many people have recovered from Covid-19 in care homes and at home isn’t as clear because the UK Government’s capacity to test on mass has been hampered with numerous logistic problems; all of which are predominantly now sorted e.g. the Government is finally in a position where it can now start to test the General Public at large as necessary.Chris, I do now have the definitive answer to your question; which was revealed by the Government today, to its own embarrassment: And which might put a smile on your face, as it is a bit of a Monty Python style botch.
Recovered is counted in the Celtic Nations (Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). However, due to an error in the Administrative system in England, no one in England who has tested positive for Covid-19 is ever recorded as recovering, statistically. The error came to light recently when the Government started to question why deaths in the Celtic Nations (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) are now near zero, but not in England. And on investigation the UK Government discovered that people who tested positive for Covid-19 months’ back but subsequently died more recently of causes not related to Covid-19 e.g. being run over by a bus, were being added to the Government stats as a Covid-19 death.
Fortunately, it hasn’t affected the Stats published by the ONS (Office of National Statistics), as they collect their data independently of the Government; therefore the ONS figures (which are now published weekly rather than monthly) are still the more accurate.
Two months in and only 37.5 billion of the 500 billion for business relief has been issued.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/none … 58752.htmlHaving looked at some figures on GDP and debt development, i would say that the US looses some 15 billion per day of lockdown. With 60 plus days that makes a rough 900 billion and counting.
Is this 500 billion enough? I would say - not, even if it were only for business. How much do private households get?It was admitted yesterday by the White House that stimulus money intended for small businesses paid Barron Trump's private elite school, $1.2 million. Why? None of the public schools are getting a dime. And those who send their kids to that private elite school are 1% who can afford tuition.
It is also known that one of Trump's own hotels got stimulus money. Why? He claiims he is a billionaire.
Cool: In Victorian Britain such people were called 'Quacks'.
UK UPDATE:
Scandal
You’ve probably heard in the last couple of days of Dominic Cummings, a Senior Government Official (Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister), being caught in flouting the ‘lockdown’ rules in the UK. He’s not the first Government Official to break the rules, but he is the first one to not be apologetic, and not to resign.
Of the other two to be caught out:-
• One broke the rules by allowing his fiancé visit him in his home on two occasions; he apologised, and immediately resigned, and
• Another broke the rules by travelling to her home in the country on two occasions, instead of staying put in her town house; she apologised, and immediately resigned.
However, Dominic Cummings (The Personal Advisor) is a nasty piece of work that a lot of people would like to see the back of, including many in the Conservative Party; especially as prior to the pandemic he had become the most powerful person in the UK.
Dominic Cummings is a politician, a professional, nor a Government employee e.g. civil servant. He is just a private individual who became the Senior Advisor to the ERG Group within the Conservative Party, masterminded the ‘Vote Leave’ Campaign, formulated all the Brexit policies for Boris Johnson and organised Boris Johnsons Election Victory in the recent General Election.
The ERG Group (European Research Group) is an inner party within the Conservative Party, who are extreme hard-right-wing anti EU Nationalists; just a small group of MPs on the far right of the Conservative Party, representing the views of less than 10% of the views of the Conservative Party.
Boris Johnson, whose only main ambition for years was to become Prime Minister, at any cost, seized upon the ERG as his ticket to realising ambitions, and put his support behind supporting the ERG in exchange for their support in making him Prime Minister. And he has subsequently rewarded their support by making virtually the whole of his Government Cabinet ERG Members.
Consequently, Boris feels a deep sense of loyalty to Dominic Cummings, and is very dependent on Dominic Cummings for advice and guidance because one of the failing of Boris is that he is renowned in not being bothered in reading Official Government Documents e.g. he was most famously caught out on camera last year when during an interview over Brexit he didn’t understand the rules on the WTO Tariffs which (based on Advice from Dominic Cummings) he advocates in using in preference to a Trade Deal with the EU.
Therefore, without Dominic Cummings, Boris would feel loss. Since becoming Prime Minister, Boris (on the Advice of Dominic Cummings) also made Dominic Cummings Senior Advisor to every Government Department, putting a wedge between Government Departments and the Civil Service, which is unprecedented because it’s tradition that the Civil Service Advise Government Departments (not Advisors); this, quite naturally, led to the resignation of one senior Government Minister, who resigned on principle.
However, since the lockdown in the UK Boris has had the good sense to brush Dominic Cummings to one side, and instead listen to the Advice of the Scientific and Medical Experts, in fighting the pandemic; to the relief of politician, including many Conservative MPs.
While, Boris may feel a strong sense of loyalty to Dominic, I doubt Dominic has any loyalty towards Boris (he’s not that type of person) e.g. Dominic has a fascination for Dictators, especially those historically in Russia and Germany, part of the reading material he is known to like.
Resulting from yesterday’s controversy, because Boris is sticking his neck out to stick up for Dominic, in one fell swoop, Boris’s loyalty to Cummings has undermined all the good work Boris has done to build up ‘Public Trust’ in the Government.
Consequently, the controversy is rumbling on, with over 20 Conservative MPs pressing for Cummings to resign, and today, one Government Minister resigning in protest. Also, the Public Trust built up in Boris, for his handling of the pandemic, has taken a severe knock; according to the latest opinion polls, his personal rating has plunged down to just 1% controversy. although the British Public in general are, Is showing a maturity, and not letting the revelations of Boris detract from the need to continue to observe the strict lockdown policies, for the common good of the nation.
Details of yesterday’s controversy can be read here: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi … spartandhp
Forward Plan for Easing the Restrictions
In spite of the above controversy, now that all the graphs for infections and deaths are still on the downward trend, the slow and steady phased plans for easing up on the lockdown and re-opening the British economy is still on course as follows:-
Schools:
Schools in England are to start re-opening from the 1st June (a phased reopening), but not without controversy.
Initially parents, Trade Unions, Schools and some Medical Advisors were not in favour of reopening the schools so soon; and talks between the Government and these bodies had met a deadlock. However, the Medical Advisors came around to supporting the Government provided sufficient progress is made by the 1st of June in the Government’s ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ program.
In the end it was decided that the final decision would be left to each individual school (and the parents).
As from the 1st June open air markets and car showrooms in England are allowed to reopen, provided they have proper ‘Social Distancing’ measures in place, in accordance with the Government’s Social Distancing Rules.
Then As from 15th June, Retail Shops in England will be allowed to reopen, provided they also have proper ‘Social Distancing’ measures in place, in accordance with the Government’s Social Distancing Rules.
Testing, and ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’
The Government is still struggling to maintain its own targets on testing, but steady progress is being made, and the 25,000 testers are now almost fully trained for when ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ goes live on the 1st June, but the nationwide rollout of the Government’s pet ‘trace app’ (which was developed by the NHS) will be delayed a few weeks, due to logistic problems with the trials.
The Full Scale Nationwide Antibodies Testing to be done by the NHS
The Government has now bought 10 million antibody test kits developed by Sweden to be used by the NHS over the coming months to test 20% of the British Public.
Preliminary trial antibody tests indicate that about 15% of Londoners have been exposed to the virus, London being where half the infections and deaths have been; and about 5% of the rest of the population. So if the full scale antibody testing gets similar results, then in spite of the high death toll in the UK, we are a very long way from achieving herd immunity.
Divergence
While England now has its own schedule plan for gradually easing up on the lockdown restrictions; the three Celtic Nations (Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales) are moving at a different pace.
Scotland has only just relaxed the lockdown, which was introduced in England a couple of weeks ago, to bring it in line with England e.g. people now allowed to spend more time outside exercising.
Northern Ireland have also now similarly eased up on the restrictions, but gone one step further by allowing groups of people in public up to six; whereas in the rest of the UK people can only be outside in groups of two individuals.
Wales is being more cautious, and hasn’t eased up on any of the restrictions yet. So while people in England can now travel any distance as part of their daily exercise, they can’t in wales e.g. the police in Wales still have road blocks, and will impose a fine on anyone travelling, if it’s not an essential journey.
Unlike England, none of the Celtic Nations are in any hurry to re-open their economy; currently, their approach is a far more cautious one....However, the Medical Advisors came around to supporting the Government provided sufficient progress is made by the 1st of June in the Government’s ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ program....
This looks like the UK is going for herd immunity. I understand ..sufficient.. in the context of protecting the health care system through the new tracking program.
May be i am wrong, but this is a dangerous strategy. Current situation in Sweden and Germany show, that whatever you do or don´t do (lockdown, early countermeasures or no lockdown), on the long run you can´t protect the elderly most in jeopardy.
By now in Germany we have some 10.000 active cases left and decreasing, this is less than 1% of US cases, for the UK no numbers available.
Even with this relative small number of cases under surveillance, you are not safe. Just last week we had 2 local outbreaks. One in a church congregation in Frankfurt (choir singing) and one fairly close to us in Northern Germany.
The latter was a private event, a reopening of a fancy restaurant, gathering with friends. At least one guest was infected, probably hygene and distancing rules not obeyed. By now there are some 12 .. 15 infected and tracing is active, so another 170 people were ordered into quarantine and more to come. One guest was a local politician of my city. Now part of our city council is isolated. Another guest was the HR manager of Germany´s largest shipyard. Now top management and work council of the shipyard are in quarantine.
The infection spreading is exponential and the tracing must be able to keep up. Not an easy task.That first statement e.g. "Medical Advisors coming around to supporting the Government, in respect to re-opening schools next week, provided sufficient progress has been made with the Government’s ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ program", stems from the fact that the UK Government has constantly struggled to meet its own targets on testing.
It hasn’t been due to the lack of enthusiasm, it’s due to various logistic problems, including the high ‘Quality’ standards set by the NHS and Government e.g. each batch of test kits the NHS receives is quality tested and any that doesn’t meet the British High Standards will be rejected.
One thing it’s not ‘is the Government going for herd immunity’; Boris abandoned that idea at the end of February.
Preliminary antibody testing carried out by the NHS, as part of the Government’s scheme to gather data for policy making, indicates that while about 15% of Londoners have had the virus at some point; only 5% of the people in the rest of the population have anti-bodies to the virus.
Therefore we are a LONG WAY from herd immunity.
Over the coming months the NHS will be testing 20% of the population for anti-bodies to get a far more accurate picture.
At the end of February (before SAGE become fully operational) Boris was advocating heard immunity; but he changed his mind within the week. SAGE is the UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, set up in 2009 by the Labour (Socialist) Government to advice the Government at times such as this. SAGE consists of over 50 Scientific and Medical Experts, and during each day’s Government TV broadcast to the Nation (at 5pm) the daily updates are given by one Government Minister in the centre with one Scientific Advisor from SAGE on one side and one Medical Advisor from Sage on the other side. The Update usually lasts about 20 minutes, followed by 20 minutes of Q&A from the General Public and then 20 minutes of Q&A from the Press.
Since the beginning of March Boris has relied very heavily on SAGE, and generally taken their Advice at every step of the way e.g. an attitude that lives are more important than the economy.
During the 1st weeks of March Boris did try to set up a comprehensive ‘track, trace and isolate’ program like South Korea; and he even went as far as getting ‘drive through’ test centres set-up throughout the UK. However, his first attempt failed miserably, and the whole scheme abandoned in favour of a full and tough lockdown on the 23rd March.
Since then the Government have been busy trying to develop and rollout mass testing, with limited success; and it only really got off the ground on the 30th April, and as from tomorrow it will be stepped up with 25,000 human testers who have only just finished their training; with the NHS tracing app due to follow within a few weeks (if it passes its trial period).
As regards whether re-opening schools will cause a second peak is something the Government will be carefully monitoring; which is why the UK Government is tentatively re-opening the economy in stages over two or more months; with a minimum of two week gaps between each phase e.g. so that if the ‘R’ rate (rate of infection) rises above ‘1’ then any easing of the lockdown can be quickly reversed.
The reason the British Government is keen on its ‘pet’ NHS tracing app is because it sees it as one of three key tools that the human tracers will be using to gather ‘live’ data on where the spread of the virus is, and where the hot spots are. The concept the Government envisages is developing a ‘smart’ map (like I think Germany uses) so that if the virus does start to peak again sections of the community (the hot spots) can be isolated and quarantined, without having to lockdown the whole country or region. An ambitious plan; and it remains to be seen in how successful the Government is in making it work.
Yep, I know the infection spreading is exponential and the tracing must be able to keep up. And yes, as the British Government has found out to its cost, it’s not an easy task.
Yep, ‘active cases’ is something missing from the UK Stats. I don’t know how many active cases there are within the community, I only know how many people are currently in hospital with Covid-19.
• Currently, there are 8,879 people in hospitals in the UK with Covid-19, which is down from 10,037 a week ago. Obviously not all on ventilators, currently only 11% of the ventilators are in use, down from 14% last week.
• Yesterday, there were 472 new admissions to hospital with Covid-19, which is down from 637 a week ago.
Other States, which you may find useful include:-
To date, there have been 267,240 confirmed cases in the UK, reaching its peek between the 30th April and 6th May, when there were over 6,000 new cases a day. Since then it’s been in a steady decline and is now down to around 2,000 new cases a day.
To date (in spite of all the problems with testing) the Government have managed to do 3,798,490 tests; and achieved 117,013 new tests yesterday.
In its daily briefing to the Nation at 5pm the Government issues two Official figures for deaths; its own figure based on confirmed covid-19 deaths, which stands at 37,460, and the ONS (Office of National Statistics) figures, which also includes suspected but not confirmed deaths from Covid-19 e.g. comparing the current death rates with the national average for the UK averaged out over the past five years; and that figures stands at 45,231.
Below are a couple of the charts shown on TV today during the Government’s Daily Briefing to the Nation at 5pm.
Arthur, reading your comprehensive status on the UK, it looks like you are still in emergency mode with daily briefings and a lot of stuff the government is organising.
In G. situation is more relaxed. No daily press conferences on Covid19 any more. No counting of how many tests per day. Everyone knows, there is enough testing capacity.
There is hospital monitoring set up to display the load situation. By now there are less than 800 Covid19 patients in ICUs, some 450 with ventilators, total capacity is more than 32,000 ICU beds.
Much more attention is payed to how the tracing is performing. Sometimes i have the impression that they are eager to find an outbreak so they can verify their assumptions. There is criticism on the time lost from first infection to hunting down all contacts. It takes some 2 days to identify positives and almost a week to find all contacts. Too long to be on the safe side.Yes we are still in ‘emergency mode’ in the UK; but that is only a political ploy to keep the British Public engaged and ‘on-board’ in supporting the Government to fight the virus by encouraging the public to continue to adhere to what are still quite strict lockdown rules; in spite of the fact that we past the peak over a month ago and new cases and deaths are dropping significantly by the week.
Currently the ‘R’ Rate (rate of infection) in the UK is around 0.7; the ‘R’ rate being the main indicator the Government is using as a guide on whether to tighten the lockdown or ease up on it. It’s why the Government’s schedule plan for easing the restrictions and re-opening the economy has no fixed dates, just provisional dates which can be amended at a moment’s notice if the ‘R’ rate suddenly rises or falls.
If the Government didn’t continue with airing its daily briefings to the Nation at Prime Time on ALL British News Channels then it’s likely people would become complacent and start to ignore the strict ‘Social Distancing’ Rules e.g. people are still only allowed to be out in public in pairs, and you can only meet one other person in public if you yourself are on your own; and we are still not allowed to visit other people in their own homes (family or friends). And in spite of the strict Social Distancing rules over 90% of the British Pubic are faithfully following those rules.
In practice, at the moment, the crisis is over in the sense that the ‘R’ rate has been below 1 for over three weeks, and an increasing number of Regions are more frequently going 24 hours without a single death e.g. London, Northern Ireland, South West England etc. Most of the deaths are currently in the hot spots, such as North West England.
I don’t currently have data on spare capacity in the hospitals other than only 11% of ICU beds are occupied, and their need is falling by the week; so plenty of spare capacity.
Yes, the performance of tracing (which finally started in the UK in full earnest today) will be critical; and that’s why the UK Government is so keen on getting its NHS Tracing app rolled out; albeit its rollout is delayed for a few weeks, while the Government sorts out a few technical issues during the trials.
As you said, with human tracers, it can take some 2 days to indemnify positive, and then almost a week to find all contacts manually; whereas if the NHS trace app works as intended, its process is automatic and immediate e.g. once one person using the app is identified as being covid-19 positive, everyone else who has been in close contact with that person will automatically get a computer generated text message warning them, and asking them to contact the NHS for a test and to self-isolate in the meantime. The ‘NHS tracing app’ (if when its rolled out) will keep track of people’s movements and locations via GPS on their smart phones; and updates the NHS database and interactive map with live data as an additional resource at the disposal of the human tracers.
The first chart below is the UK’s Government’s Action Plan for easing the lockdown. We moved into step one a couple of weeks ago e.g. the restriction on exercising outside just once a day, and within a short walking distance from home has been lifted. We move into Step 2 on Monday e.g. schools reopening. And provided ‘R’ remains below ‘1’ we should be moving to Step 3 in July e.g. Restaurants etc., will be allowed to re-open, provided they following strict ‘Social Distancing’ and other safety guidelines stipulated by the Government.
The 2nd Chart governs the time of the first chart e.g. UK now moving from level 4 to level 3.
Ich wish the UK all the luck they can get a hold of. This virus is really tricky.
Concerning the R-number, i provide a chart, which is daily updated, sorry German text description only.
It is very telling for how long you have to keep the R-number below 1 for some success. Peak of registered active cases was on April 5th, 8 weeks ago and still 10,000 active cases left.
Hospital ICU usage is also updated daily (currently going down by 50 per day).
With the tracking mode in G., there is always the issue with the first Covid19 positive person. This person has to be tracked both directions in time. Whom they had contact with after identification and whom they had contact with before.Danke schön
Yep, even with the ‘R’ rate below ‘1’ it takes time to work its way out of the system, with a risk of a flair-up if the Government takes its eye off the ball for a moment; a most stubborn virus.
Yeah, I appreciate that with human tracers, tracing those who have been in close contact with an infected person in both directions in time is tricky and time consuming; that’s where (if/when it is rolled out nationally) the NHS smartphone tracing app will come into its own, and be a big aid to the human tracers e.g. through GPS tracking of the smart phones, the app will already have saved to the centralised NHS database every other person (using the app) who has been in close contact with that person, when and for how long. The app database software has been written to highlight everyone who has been within 2 metres of an infected person for more than 15 minutes over the previous 2 weeks.
In spite of it being in German I found the chart useful e.g. from the chart it looks as if the ‘R’ rate in both Germany and the UK are currently around the 0.7 value.
Talking about the German language, although regrettably I can only speak English (and Bristolian), the UK (as you may know) doesn’t speak just one language today, but a multitude of Languages, dialects and accents; various Celtic languages e.g. Manx, Scottish, Irish, Welsh and Cornish (Kernow) etc. as well as English. So I do have quite a fascination for the history of languages in the UK and their origins.
Most particular, I find it quite fascinating in that the English language is the product of the amalgamation of ‘old German’ (the Angles, Saxons and Jutes from Germany in the 5th century) with ‘old French’ (the Norman invasion of 1066).
This video below comprehensively covers the history of the different languages spoken today in the UK:-
Languages of the British Isles: https://youtu.be/ODeYttUY4VIThis tracing app is almost as tricky as the virus itself. Apparently the technology behind (no matter UK or Germany) is Bluetooth communication. And here is where tech freaks start to question:
How to identify false alarms: f.e.
2 smartsphone rest in neighbouring lockers in a gym, public pool.. Is that direct contact?
In a restaurant people are sitting outside and inside, separated by a window.
Modern office buildings often have light construction walls. Good for noise damping, but not supporting reliabilty of contact incidents.
Bluetooth frequencies are well shielded by human bodies. If have your smartphones in your shirt pocket (as i always do), you can stand shoulder to shoulder and not trigger an incident.
Then there is the mathematical issue: If the app coverage in population is not high enough, it will not work. Example: 60% coverage gives a 60% x 60% = 36% incident detection probability. If you add all the false alarms or other problems, the hit rate will easily drop to 20%, even if deep learning software is used to sort out some obvious false alarms.
Even with 80% app coverage you don´t get better than 35% hit rate. That is 1 out of 3. Does administration really want to rely on this?
Sorry, i sometimes get into analysing and lecturing mode (have done this all my professional life)
2 days have passed from my previous comment. Changed situation in G. allows for individual tracking of local outbreaks. This restaurant incident i mentioned is now at 35 infected and 260 people in quarantene. A new outbreak yesterday with 50 infected and already 170 in isolation was again associated with a church congregation and open singing. I am sure that German government will no more allow church congregations, lessons learned.
Thanks for the interesting video link on languages in Britain. Reminds of a hard time communicating to taxi drivers while i had business in Prestwick, Scotland. Never had a problem in other parts of the country. Was refreshing to talk to Cockney people in London, but no comparison to this Scottish, Gaelish. That was a real treat :-).
My take on languages you may find in an old comment here: https://hubpages.com/education/second-l … y#commentsYep, you are perfectly right, as always.
The UK Government was hoping to achieve a take-up of at least 60%, but in the trials on the Isle of Wight only 43% have down loaded the NHS tracing app, because there is concern by the British Public that the Government will not keep personal data private and secure; in spite of constant reassurance by the Government that it is perfectly safe. And those concerns are not helped by the fact that the Government wants to keep the personal data for 25 years before destroying it!
The main delay in rolling out the app (which should have been rolled this coming Monday, but which is delayed by several weeks) is to iron out some of the technical issues along the lines you describe.
On a positive note; the app isn’t intended as the only tool to be used by the human tracers, it’s just one of three key tools the human tracers will be using; so although it may not be perfect, it will be an additional aid; for what it’s worth.
In spite of the above issues, two of the 50 SAGE Advisors are publically warning that the Government should delay phase 2 of the easing of the lockdown for a few weeks so that the lockdown is eased at the same time as the app, and not before!
The short clip from the UK Government’s Daily Briefing to the Nation three days ago explains the Government’s strategy on ‘Test and Trace’, as it currently stands; albeit it will be tweaked overtime.
Coronavirus UK: Government launches test and trace programme for COVID-19 (27th May): https://youtu.be/609679_byNw
Thanks for the language link, very informative. The big issue I have with the British Education System is that school children in Britain don’t start learning a 2nd language until they are 11, which is far too late; and which is why I was never able to learn a 2nd language; except for Bristolian (as I’m Bristolian born and breed). I think school children should start learning a 2nd language by at least the age of 7, if not earlier.
Nevertheless, in holidaying in France yearly since the mid 1990’s I have gradually learnt to be able to read and understand some basic French on food labels and posters etc., which is useful; and from our frequent trips to Belgium I’ve picked up a small handful of rudimentary German (or German like) words they sometimes use on their menus in restaurants and cafes.
Yes Scottish can be difficult, even to English people who are more familiar with their dialect and accent; below, this is one humorous occasion in Parliament when an English MP failed to understand a Scotsman:
English MP fails to understand Glaswegian accent: https://youtu.be/I4k8dR04TzA
My own accent and dialect is Bristolian. One of my favourite humorous songs by the Wurzels (famous in the 70’s), sung in Bristolian is “Thee's Got'n Where Thee Cassn't Back'n, Hassn't”, which means “You’ve got in where you can’t back it out, haven’t you”. Other words to look out for in the song includes ‘girt’ which means ‘very big’; bis means “you”; ‘O arrh’ means ‘Oh Yes’ etc.
Adge cutler & The wurzels Thee's Got'n Where Thee Cassn't Back'n, Hassn't: https://youtu.be/AnKjwOLiBTgUpdate G.:
There are by now strong recommendations by Robert Koch Institute ( German Government Health Science branch) to follow Japan´s strategy to pay special attention to "superspreading" events or situations.
Past 2 weeks made clear that all local outbreaks could be assigned to:
- large family clans
- meat and food processing industry with migrant workers in precariously cheap and crowded housing conditions
- church congregations with open choir singing
- indoor gathering (restaurant openings)
All outbreaks were indoor attributed. :-) I have hope for the recent beach party people from lake of the Ozarks, Missouri.
By now the R-factor gets difficult to interpret, because majority of new infections come from only a few superspreading events. Makes the statistical R-factor computation no more applicable.Thanks for the update Chris.
It’s too early for the British Government to have such detailed information at the movement, as the Government has only just started it’s detailed ‘track, trace and isolate’ programme; but it is data the Government is keen to gather so that it can make ‘informed’ decisions.
However, from the four items you list, the current situation in the UK is:-
1. Large Family Clans:- It’s only from today that the lockdown has been eased in this area e.g. for the first time since the 23rd March up to six people can now meet ‘outside’ (including private gardens) from no more than two families; but they must keep 2m apart. Meeting inside your own house is still prohibited.
2. Meat and food processing industry with migrant workers: - Unlike the USA and Germany, we haven’t so far had any major outbreak of the virus within the food industry. We haven’t had the migrant workers either because since the Brexit Referendum in 2016 the large number of migrant workers have refused to come to the UK during the summer, with the result that many British farms are struggling to get the work force to pick crops; with the result that in the past two years two thirds of the summer fruits have been left to rot in the fields e.g. 16 million apples were left to rot on the trees last year due to the lack of worker.
The British Conservative Government was banking on the British unemployed wanting to do the work e.g. it’s not cheap labour; under British Law everyone (regardless to whether they are British or immigrant) get paid the same ‘legal’ minimum wage; but hard manual labour is something the Brits don’t like doing.
And the current Pandemic has just made matter worse e.g. last month there was just 112 British applicants for fruit picking, to make up for the short fall of the 50,000 EU seasonal migrants that would (pre Brexit) normally have come to the UK for the summer.
To get around the problem, a lot of British Strawberry farms have now switched to ‘pick your own’, since the Brexit Referendum, because the British Public love picking their own fruit as a leisure activity (day out). These were closed to the public until recently (as part of the lock-down) because ‘Garden Centres’ were not classified as ‘an essential service’. But from mid-May garden centres were added to the list of ‘essential services’. However the one near us stayed open for less than one day e.g. within hours of our local ‘pick your own’ strawberry farm opened, people eager to make a beeline for the best looking bushes failed to ‘Social Distance’ so the farmer (acting responsibly) turfed everyone out, and closed his doors to the public.
3. Church Congregations: Even before the pandemic (apart from Northern Ireland) churches in Britain were always almost empty anyway because the British people are not very religious. Church attendance in England was just 4.7% of the population; 4.8% in Wales, and 8.9% in Scotland. In contrast, church attendance in Northern Ireland is 48%.
4. Indoor Gatherings e.g. restaurants:- Currently, all in door gatherings are still banned in the UK; restaurants, with limited capacity seating e.g. ‘Social Distancing’ imposed, should be allowed to re-open as from 15th June, provided ‘R’ is still under ‘1’ by that time.
As regards to your reference to the difficulties of interpreting the R-factor in different settings; it is something the British Government is grappling with e.g. one of the reasons delaying the roll-out of the human tracers until the end of last week was the Government being fastidious in setting up ‘systems’ to better measure the ‘R’ factor at a higher level of granularity (in different settings) e.g. the ‘R’ Factor is currently around 0.9 in care homes, but below 0.7 in the wider community. And one thing the Government is keen to do is be able to identify settings and places where ‘R’ is above ‘1’ so that they can be isolated and lockdown, while allowing everyone greater freedom!
We’ll have to wait and see how well the UK Government handles the next month, which (coming out of lockdown) is a tricky process; and see how it pans out?Update from G.:
As Germany has switched its strategy from general testing to "target testing" of highlighted infection patterns (clan families, food processing..), we have a surge in newly infected.
R-factor has sky-rocketed to 2.9 because of massive local outbreaks. Most prominent case is meat factory Tönnies in Rheda-Wiedenbrück with a rough 1,5k infected.
At the same time fatality rate is down to statistically neglectable values. Some 0,1 to 0,5% of natural mortality. Active cases are going up again, currently 8.000.
The Corona Watch App was launched last week. More than 11 Million activated the app. I am one of them, even if i am reserved concerning effectivity.
The distancing measures and mask wearing in uncontrolled public places is still active, so most outbreaks are well contained and have their origin in close working conditions and precarious housing conditions.
As i write this, a meat factory in my city was visited by the testing task force and yes - infected were found. Will be interesting to watch what there is to come.
I would no say this infection surge is a second wave. It is more the result of changed strategies.
It looks like social distancing and masking really works and unprotected gatherings (in factories, in houses, on Trump rallies) are source for trouble.Thanks for the update Chris.
The R rate in the UK, as a whole, remains at 0.7-0.9; but it does vary from Region to Region e.g. some areas just above ‘1’ while other areas are well below ‘1’. The main thing is that currently, in spite of increased testing, newly identified cases are still falling by the week, as are deaths; albeit slowly.
The UK Government is still struggling to perfect its ‘Test, Track, Trace and Isolate’ program, in spite of having sufficient ‘human tracers’ to do the job e.g. Administrative issues, but the issues are being slowly ironed out, and the Government is slowly making progress by the week.
The UK Government has abandoned its ‘pet’ project of the NHS trace app for the time being, because although it does work well on most ‘smart phones’, security settings on ‘Apple’ devices prevents it from working properly. But because the Government’s NHS is far more accurate on identifying distance than the Apple/Google app, the Government is trying to persuade Apple/Google to take the NHS coding and incorporate into their app (for the world)? So currently the Government is publically optimistic that it will have a workable app that it wants by the end of the year?
While the ‘R’ rate is still below ‘1’ the Government is staying on course in slowly re-opening the economy in small ‘bite-size’, two weekly steps:-
• All non-essential Retail Shops, that meet the Government’s strict rules, were allowed to open on the 15th June, and
• The next step takes place on the 4th July, when pubs, restaurants and hair dressers will be allowed to re-open; provided they meet the Government’s strict rules.
The re-opening of pubs and restaurants on the 4th July has been a little controversial in that with the 2 metre rule, only 25% of pubs and restaurants would have been able to re-open, while complying the strict Government Rules. So after a lot of consideration, and lengthy consultation with the scientific and medical experts, Boris finally decided yesterday that the 2 metre rule can be relaxed to 1 metre (minimum), provided extra precautions are put in place. The change to 1 metre distancing (with extra precautions imposed) will allow 75% of pubs and restaurants to re-open on 4th July. Albeit, opinion polls indicate a reluctance of people going out socialising again, so it is expected that demand for such facilities will be down significantly when they do open on 4th July.
The other major change is that while masks have only been compulsory on public transport; as from 4th July masks will be compulsory at all times.
There are still large sections of the economy in shut down in the UK, including beauty salons, gyms, and nightclubs etc., and still no indication from the Government as to when they might be allowed to re-open e.g. the UK Government will be watching the effect of the easing up on the 4th July before making any other firm decisions.
One good news, is that the Government’s plan to randomly sample 20% of the UK population to see what percentage of the population has the anti-bodies is well under way e.g. our son has been randomly selected to take part in this large scale survey.
Germany update August: This is what a second wave looks like.
- Reopening in May ( index (3)),
- Change in testing strategy in June (focus on infection patterns, food processing plants, church service gatherings..), caused the zigzag.
- July = holiday season, from mid July on people returning from holidays and apparently bring back the virus and trigger the second wave.
- August shows moderate surge of cases, now above 1.000/day, active cases on the rise, almost doubled from 3 weeks ago to 11.000 now.
- first states reopened schools after vacation period - and some schools immediately closed again, due to in school infections.
No change in distancing :
Mask wearing indoors in public places mandatory (shops, public transport)
1,5 m distance (roughly 5 ft)
With people coming back from holidays in the mediterranian, mandatory testing at airports enforced.Thanks for the update Chris.
The economy in the UK wasn’t reopened until the 4th July. At the time the UK Government did warn that it expected an increase in new cases as a result e.g. pubs (bars) and restaurants also reopened on the 4th July, and if necessary the pubs and restaurants would be closed again.
However, that spike never came! Yes there has been a slow and steady increase in new cases since the 4th July, up from 664 new cases daily to 832 new cases now; but the vast bulk of those new cases are due to the rapid increase in testing e.g. up from about 180,000 tests per day a month ago to near 300,000 tests per day now (with a Government target to reach half a million tests a day by September). The good news is, is that the number of positive tests per 100,000 tested has steadily declined over the past month, and is still declining by the week; as are deaths.
On the 4th July (when we reopened our economy in the UK), the average daily deaths was 97 people a day; now the average is 56 a day, and falling by the week.
So in spite of reopening our economy in the UK on the 4th July, we haven’t (as yet) experienced any second wave or spike; fortunately.
Some of the specifics for the UK:-
• The Government did make a failed attempt at reopening schools on the 1st June, but many Local Governments didn’t reopen their schools, and in areas where the schools were reopened many parents refused to send their children back to school anyway.
Therefore, schools are to reopen in the 2nd week of September; but this time, under stricter Covid-19 Rules laid down by the Government e.g. assigning teachers to individual classes (half their normal size), keeping teachers isolated from each other, and each class separate from any other class (bubbles); so that in the event that a child or teacher becomes infected, only that class (buddle) is isolated (put into quarantine), without affecting the other classes (bubbles).
• When the Government reopened pubs (bars) and restaurants on the 4th July it reduced ‘social distancing’ from 2m to 1m+ to make it economically viable for pubs to reopen. But, in visiting a pub in the UK you do have to give your name and contact details to a member of staff on the door, so that in the event that any with Covid-19 is traced back to the pub the ‘contact tracers’ know who else visited the pub at that time, so that they can be contacted and asked to isolate and get tested.
Other restrictions imposed on pubs (bars) is that they are now waitress service only (you have to sit down, rather than stand at the bar), staff have to wear PPE, and ONLY contactless payment is permitted.
• As from today, the wearing of masks indoors in 'all' public places, and on public transport, is now mandatory in the UK. Previously it was just on public transport and some indoor public places.
• As regards holidays, people coming back from the list of countries deemed safe by the UK Government (which doesn’t include the USA) can travel freely (which is most of Europe), but people coming back from countries where Covid-19 infections are higher than the UK, people have to self-isolate for 10 days. The reason the UK government has opted to impose self-isolation from countries where risk of infection from Covid-19 is high, rather than relying on testing at the airport is because for people who have only just become infectious (as they might do when on holiday) they don’t always show a temperature increase initially. So the British Government feel that self-isolation is a more cautious approach!!!
The only major part of the UK economy that is still not open, and no indication as to when they will be allowed to reopen, are the night clubs.
Update Germany Aug. 22:
G. is experiencing something like a second wave. Active cases have risen 250% since lowest count of 5500 six weeks ago. Death count is single digit per day, statistically not relevant. Situation is much more relaxed compared to the US with active cases only 2,5% of US number, population adjusted.
The Robert Koch Institute (leading government organization in fighting the virus) has released some new statistics that give a picture of how the spreading takes place (results of intensive tracking and follow up):
Most new cases are in household environments, but only 3 are infected by 1 spreader (R=3).
Elderly care homes are second but with lower incidents but much higher R-factor: 19
Refugee homes (not camps) have R-factor: 21 highest R-factor in G.
Schools represent 150 infections of 10.000 on some 30 incidents and is considered to be not alarming.
Low spreading in Restaurants, Hotels, offices and factories, if spectacular (more than 1000 cases) outbreaks in food processing pants are set aside.
Zero spreading outdoors in controlled areas (zoos, amusement parks).
Up to now only 3 incidents associated with outdoor picknicking in city parks.
In Germany masks are required in indoor public spaces, shops, public transport. Restaurants must register guests with time and table stamp. No self service buffets allowed.
Outdoors 1,50 m distancing, nothing more.
I am not sure if restrictions were eased even more recently. But i have the impression that rising new cases will have state and federal administration step on the brake again and restrict partying, as most new cases do not come from public locations or events. We shall see.
A last one: Since end of May in G. counties have to lockdown if new cases exceed 50 per week per 100k population. This rule applied on the US would lockdown almost every state in the US, except NY.New confirmed average daily cases in the UK is currently 992 a day, up slightly from its lowest point of 545 on the 8th July, but has stayed steady for the past week; and showing signs of slowly declining from its height of 1,097 a week ago.
The death count finally reached single digits earlier in the week, and still declining slowly week by week.
I don’t know how many ‘Live Active Cases’ there are because England screwed-up the statistics good and proper (Statistical flaw) e.g. people who tested positive for Covid-19 months ago and who have subsequently died of other causes, such as being running over by a bus, were being statistically recorded as dying of Covid-19. The error in the stats has now been corrected.
But the ‘Testing Positivity’ rate of 0.5% in the UK has remained steady. This compares to the ‘Testing Positivity’ rate of 0.7% in Germany, and 1.4% as the EU average; all of which is significantly lower than the USA were the Testing Positivity Rate is often between 10% & 20% in a lot of the States.
However, in the UK it’s the ‘R’ value that the Government uses as the main ‘Indicator’; which over the past month has increased from between 0.8 & 1.0 to 0.9 & 1.1 (UK wide average). Where it’s slightly above ‘1’ (currently 1.1) is parts of northern England; and on investigation the main cause of ‘R’ rising above ‘1’ in northern England has been where northerners have been socialising in each other’s homes e.g. friends and family visiting each other and holding BBQs etc. in each other’s gardens.
So in response, the UK Government has been imposing ‘Social Restrictions’ in areas in northern England where ‘R’ goes above ‘1’ e.g. make it illegal for people to visit each other in each other’s homes in the affected areas. These areas are then carefully monitored (heavily tested) and the situation reviewed regularly so as to ease or modify the restrictions as and when appropriate.
This approach of acting swiftly and harshly appears to be working in that the ‘R’ value has been dropping to below ‘1’ again in those areas in northern England that have had ‘social restrictions’ imposed on them.
It’s no great surprise the problem is in the north, rather than the south: characteristic of the north/south divide e.g. northerners are far more sociable and friendly; while we southerners are not so much (in the South we tend to keep ourselves to ourselves more, by nature).
Coronavirus: Separate households banned from meeting indoors in parts of northern England: https://youtu.be/N4MCs38L18A
As with Germany, masks are only required in indoor public spaces; although one significant difference is that ‘Social Distancing’ in the UK was reduced from 2m on the 4th July to 1m+. The 1m+ rule being that keep 2m apart if possible, but where not possible e.g. in pubs (bars) then keep at least 1m apart. It was a risky strategy (gamble) to try to help pubs be more financially viable, and one that the Government was prepared to reverse if it didn’t work. But as deaths have gone down since the 4th July, rather than up, and the ‘R’ has hovered around ‘1’ rather than spiking, then the gamble (experiment) appears to have worked.Just announced on the news (23rd Aug); the UK Government have just introduced a £10,000 ($13,000) fine for illegal parties. It's not as if illegal parties are a big problem in the UK (like they are in the USA), but such parties are 'super spreaders' and the Government is clamping down hard before it becomes a major issue e.g. in recent opinion polls, over 80% of the British population is fully supportive of the Government taking tough measures to combat the virus.
Arthur, i read about the lack of success in France concerning the Corona app. Financial Times has an article that only some 70 incidents were reported by the app. Some news outlets even report less.
https://www.ft.com/content/255567d5-b7e … 3b3a23f665
https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/frenc … L39o6e8S2_
This makes sense to me, because if only 1,9 Million out of 67 Million have activated the app, simple statistics will come to an incident detection probability of 0,08%. Multiply this with the number of active cases (some 100.000) and we get 80 incidents at 0% false alarms. Same magnitude of what is reported.
I learned that German government had spent some 69 million Euro (most of iit for server capacity) on the development and rollout of the app. Same maths trick as above for Germany will delivery only 230 detects. That is 300.000 Euro per successful detection. What a hay maker!
Being an old industrial consultant, i can only recommend the UK administration to abandon the project. Success is questionable and cost per detection makes the who project look ridiculous. They can better spend the money on vaccine development, more ICUs, you name it, but not for this piece of software.It is too hot outside, so i decided to do some further investigation on the Corona stuff.
In a post some 5 weeks ago i hinted that former communist block may be much better off after the pandemic is over. Explanation is not totally clear but may be connected with mandatory BCG vaccination in sovjet times, which especially applies to older people.
I had a look at overall fatality numbers compared to natural mortality over the whole pandemic period until now:
Russia: 1,7% of natural mortality
Belorus: 1,1%
East German states including Berlin (former GDR): 1,8%
West German states: 3,0%
Sweden: 14,2%
UK: 16,8% (42.000 Corona deaths/ 250.000 natural death in the period)
USA: 10,0%
Numbers may vary a little, but the huge difference in fatality between Eastern Europe and Western Europe is becoming very obvious. We even have a transparent "control group" with East German states that show same result.
IMHO there is not much evidence to blame Russia or Belorus for undercounting. There simply is not much room to undercount if you compare to East Germany.
On the other hand: Something must have gone terribly wrong with the UK. Even Sweden has a lower fatality rate and they didn´t do any lockdown, at best a voluntary lockdown.I don’t have all the answers, but part of the answer for such a high death count in the UK attributed to covid-19 is ONS (Office of National Statistics); and another part of the issue was that (like Italy, USA and other Western Countries) proper care and attention in care homes were overlooked in the first month of the lockdown in the UK.
When the UK started to publish covid-19 deaths, initially the ‘Official’ figures were those where people died, who had tested positive for covid-19. But after the first month of the lockdown the ONS (Office of National Statistics) published their own monthly report which put the death toll about 25% higher than was officially being reported by the Government; since then the Government has adopted the ONS figures as the official figures, and make revisions to their own figures accordingly when the ONS data is published (which is now weekly).
The ONS is an ‘Independent Government Department’ e.g. not answerable to the Government, but answerable to Parliament only. It’s a safe guard used for certain sensitive Government Departments in the UK to ensure that Governments can't interfere with or influence the work of the Department for political gain e.g. to prevent Governments from manipulating or hiding data.
The ONS Independently gathers social and economic data and publishes the raw data in the public domain monthly for all to see, including the public, and opposition parties.
Unlike the Government that (initially) just took the figure for all people who tested positive for covid-19, and subsequently died. The ONS also included all deaths where covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificates by the doctor, regardless to whether they were tested for covid-19 or not.
And as a separate exercise, for each month the ONS added up the total number of deaths in the UK for the previous 5 years and divided the figure by 5 to give a 5 year average, and then subtracted that from the total deaths for the same month in this year: Thus arriving at excess deaths during the pandemic which can be assumed to be predominantly caused by covid-19.
The other factor is that while everyone focused on hospitals in the UK, infections and deaths swept through care homes (mostly elderly people) like wildfire; to the point that during the peak of deaths in the UK, about half of all deaths in the UK was in care homes. Since then the Government has paid attention to the care homes, and the situation has been bought under control.
The one good news for where I live, in Bristol, is that in Bristol (one of the least affected areas in the UK), with a population of 535,907 people, during the whole pandemic there has only been a total of just 729 people who have tested positive in Bristol, and just a small handful of deaths.
Another piece of good news is that as part of the Government’s (NHS) programme to randomly sample test 20% of the UK (for research purposes only) for antibodies, our son was selected as part of that random sample, and his test came back negative; which means both I and my wife almost certainly haven’t been exposed to the virus because neither of us have been out since the lockdown on the 23rd March e.g. like many people during the pandemic, we have our food and DIY supplies delivered to our home (rather than risk going out).
Another final piece of good news is that according to the ONS, current deaths in the UK this week was the same as average total number of deaths for this week over the previous five years.
The UK Government has abandoned any attempt to use the NHS trace app for the time being, because although it works exceptionally well on most smart devices (better than the Apple/Google app); it doesn’t work properly on Apple devices because of security settings on Apple devices.
The UK Government is trying to engage in talks with Apple and Google, to try to get them to adopt the good aspects of the NHS app into their own app coding to be re-released as a revised version (for world benefit) by the end of the year? Whether Boris is successful in this is debatable!
Therefore, to compensate for the lack of the app, Boris increased the number of human tracers from 18,000 to 25,000 (all now fully trained and operational); and which at the moment seems to be adequate to keep on top of things.
One interesting stat, in the light that Trump is so ‘anti-testing’, and claimed several times over the past few days that the USA does more testing than any other country in the world; is that for example the UK has so far done testing on 15.2% of the population (the country that has done the 15th highest number of tests per head of population); while the USA have tested just 11.1% of the population (the country with the 26th highest number of tests done in the world, per head of population).
Testing is an integral part of ‘Contact Tracing’, as an important tool to help keep the virus under control. As of 18th June; the USA only had only 37,110 ‘contact tracers’. In the UK since May, Boris Johnson (UK Conservative Government), has employed and trained 25,000 ‘contact tracers’ (comparable to other European countries). Considering the UK population is one 5th of the size of the USA, it would seem that the USA is woefully lacking in much needed contact tracers that would be needed to help keep the virus under control!Live to Learn; my comment “about American’s desire to maintain their individual liberty being a problem”, which you scoffed at, is summed up in this British TV News Report from yesterday:-
The Americans refusing to wear masks: 'It's against our rights': https://youtu.be/XeEgBOmCTEM
In the above news report, at 3:12 minutes; two middle aged American women rip into the British News Reporters for wearing masks e.g. one of the woman says; quote:-
“….because you are wearing a mask out of stupidity, and you are further pushing the agenda, and the agenda is that the State wants to control all of us and have us living in fear, and thinking that you are contaminated.
It is false narrative, and when you wear a mask, which you can certainly do, you are further pushing the agenda that is condemning all of us, and keep us living in a state of terror…” https://youtu.be/XeEgBOmCTEM?t=192LATEST DATA
In last 24 hours, total new cases in UK were just 352, total deaths just 16:-
• The 7 day moving average of new cases is the lowest it’s been in the UK since the 22nd March.
• The 7 day moving average of deaths is the lowest it’s been in the UK since the 25th March.
In the last 24 hours, total new cases in USA were 50,586, total deaths 378: 12 deaths (3%) higher than on the same day the previous week.
• New cases in the USA are the highest they have ever been since the start of the pandemic in March.
• The 7 day moving average of deaths is the lowest it’s been in the USA since the 30th March; but with record high infection rates over double in the past week (now over 50,000 a day), and with a long lag time of several weeks between infections and deaths, I fear that that is about to change.The increase was expected here in the states due to reopening massive number of tests being done. So many that are being tested are A-symptomatic.
The next few weeks will be telling. If the death rate increases due to a rise in cases it will tell us we have a virus that is still virulent, versus one that has mutated down to something much less virulent. It will also predict if we have a new wave in the fall.
The stats for the entire world are showing a decrease in deaths overall. Some countries still appearing to be doing worse than others.
Here in Mich, we are showing the death rate very low to a slightly rising infection rate. The testing is widespread, and one can literally almost get one on every corner for free.
I prefer to think the lag time will prove we have a virus that has become denatured, and will fizzle out. One can hope...Taking each of your five paragraphs in turn:-
#1: Yes, the more people you test the more you will find who are infected. However, that is NOT the issue. The issue is “What percentage of those who are tested, are tested as positive”. The sad fact is that in at least 37 States (74% of the States) the percentage of those who are tested who are testing positive (rather than negative) has increased dramatically in the past two weeks e.g. in several States the number of people testing positive is now well over 20% of those tested; and rising.
In contrast in the UK, the city of Leicester, which the Government put back into lockdown last week because of an unacceptable increase in infections e.g. currently the worst affected part of the UK; only 0.135% of those being tested in Leicester are testing positive.
FYI: the USA on average is doing only twice as many tests per day than the UK e.g. 314,000 tests per day in the USA and an average of about 160,000 tests per day in the UK. The UK now has the capacity to do up to 300,000 tests per day, but because the infection rate in the UK is now so low there isn't the need at the moment to do more than about 160,000 tests per day to keep the virus under control.
So in spite of the fact the USA population is 5 times larger than the UK, the USA is only doing double the number of tests than the UK e.g. per head of population the UK is dong far more testing than the USA:-
• To date the USA has done 38,806,343 tests (tests per 1m population = 117,226). Therefore the USA has tested just 11.72% of the population. And 10% to 20%+ of those tested in the USA are currently tested positive.
• In contrast, to date the UK has done 10,777,399 tests (tests per 1m population = 158,741) Therefore the UK has tested 15.87% of the population. And currently of those tested in the UK, currently less than 0.1% are tested positive.
#2: Yesterday (7th July) in the USA, of the 300,000+ who were tested, 55,442 tested positive (about 20%). In contrast the average of those testing positive in the UK is currently just 560 per day (less than 0.1% of those being tested).
Yesterday (7th July) 993 people died of covid-19 in the USA, the highest death toll in a single day in the USA since 10th June (three weeks ago); an possible indication that deaths are on the rise again in the USA. In contrast, the average daily deaths in the UK are only 95 people (a 10th of the death toll in the USA) and still falling (the lowest it’s been since 26th March).
#3: Yes, in most countries across the world, including the UK, where Governments are taking the pandemic seriously and making every effort to fight the pandemic, the death tolls are declining, and their economies are opening up again.
However, in countries like the USA and Brazil, where the Governments are not taking the pandemic seriously enough, and NOT doing enough to fight the pandemic, and also in poor countries (like India) who don’t have the resources to fight the pandemic; then the infection rates and deaths are increasing dramatically.
#4: You are lucky that the death rate in Michigan is currently low, likewise the infection rate and deaths in Bristol (where I live) is VERY LOW. However, the pandemic is spreading across the USA, currently most predominantly in the south, and unlike other countries such as the EU and Australia etc. who close internal borders to stop the spread of the virus, there is nothing stopping the virus to spread from State to State in the USA.
Yes I know that testing is now freely available across the USA, just as it’s freely available across the UK. However, when people are tested positive (which is about 20% of tests in the USA), in the USA you currently only have 28,000 ‘contract tracers’ to track down people who have been in close contact with infected people, and get them to isolate and get tested; to slow the spread of the virus. The CDC says it needs a minimum of a further 72,000 contract tracers to fight the spread of the virus.
In contrast, the UK (a fifth of the size of the USA) has 25,000 contract tracers (just 3,000 less than the USA), which considering that less than 0.1% of tests in the UK are coming back positive, is sufficient in the UK to help contain the virus and stop its spread.
#5: No the lag time between infections and deaths does NOT mean the virus has become denatured, the lag time is the same now as it was at the start of the pandemic way back in March e.g. people become infected, two weeks later fall ill and have to go into hospital, and then two or three weeks later die.
Also, for those wishing for herd immunity; they are going to be disappointed. A large-scale study in Spain (who was hit almost as hard as the UK with the pandemic) has indicated that only 5% of its population has developed coronavirus antibodies, strengthening evidence that so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable." Also, a similar large-scale study currently being conducted in the UK (sampling 20% of the population) is similar results e.g. less than 5% of the population in the UK have anti-bodies.I guess my opinion has come mainly through a few friends that re physicians working at one of our largest hospitals in Michigan.
Both claim they are seeing a mutated COVID that is at this point using little problems to the host. I have been told the new strain is much more easily spread, somewhat more like a cold virus. This is the reason for the increase in cases and a decrease in deaths. Actually my friend told me at this point the virus is no longer holding numbers that it can be considered a pandemic any longer.
I note that the Taskforce will be giving an update today, should be interesting to see what they have to say.
As I mentioned I think the next weeks will give us an idea if the mutated virus will continue to be as much as a problem.I don’t mean to be disrespectful to your colleagues, but what you are being told is partially in error.
1. Yes the virus has mutated since it left China, and is more infectious. But it’s not new news. The original strain swept across Asia. The mutated strain originated in Italy, months ago, spread across Europe to the UK and then on to the USA.
The video below gives an overview of that mutation:-
Study in early MAY 2020 says new strain of coronavirus is more contagious: https://youtu.be/SfahYQwE-kI
2. However, the virus is just as deadly now as it was back in March; the only difference is that better treatment has been developed over the past three months that increases the chances of survival.
The most effective new treatment to date (which was trialled in the UK, with the results being published to the world on 15th June) is Dexamethasone; a drug that is widely available across the world, and is also affordable to poor countries: And it only costs $7 per patient.
The use of Dexamethasone, at the right time:-
• For patients on ventilators, it cuts the risk of death from 40% to 28%, and
• For patients needing oxygen, it cuts the risk of death from 25% to 20%
For further information: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281
If your friend told you that the virus has become so harmless that it should no longer be considered as a pandemic, then he/she is either lying or is blind to actuality.
I watched some of the ‘Taskforce’ blurb live; and they are lying through their teeth to the American Public e.g. they want to down play the pandemic to get the economy going again (regardless to how many lives it costs): Because Trump (who is still in denial about the pandemic) wants to get the economy going again as part of his election campaign, and he doesn’t care how many people die in the pandemic. Trump’s attitude towards wearing masks and his disregard of social distancing at his rallies should be a clue that he has total disregard to people dying from covid-19.
FYI: If you look at the recent figures. Deaths from covid-19 in the USA over the past two days are now around 25% higher than they have been for the past month. If the trend for the past two days continues, as it is likely to do due to the dramatic increase in infections, then you are back to the high levels of daily deaths that you had in the USA before the 9th June.Agree. Btw,
More than 100 Texas residents died from the coronavirus Thursday.
The grim milestone marks the second consecutive day the state broke its record for single-day COVID-19-related deaths, with 98 coming Wednesday. Texas also reported 9,782 new cases Thursday, bringing its total to 230,346, with 2,918 resulting in death.
According to a Houston Chronicle analysis, there are currently around 9,610 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, another record, with 11,575 beds and 5,288 ventilators available.Yes the data in the USA makes for grim reading, with no end in sight!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/On April 23 the peak death toll for the day was listed as 2748 the death. Yesterday the death toll was 464. As one can see just by viewing the full chart the death toll has decreased as the cases of new infections have risen severely. April 24th showed new cases at a peak of 39,123.
On June 19th the new case started going up steadily.from 33.582 (death toll 2748) new case toll continues to grow --- July 14 peaked at 65,594 new cases The death toll we 464.
It is very obvious the virus at this point is not causing death as it did at its peak in the spring months.
It certainly could mutate again become more virulent, it also could fizzle as many viruses have. The next few weeks will give more information on the virus itself.
At this point, with the decreasing death toll, I certainly would not call it "grim". It actually gives a glimmer of hope that the virus is no longer a horrendous killer.
The majority of the states remain in single or low double digits in regard to the death toll.
I truly do trust my peers in regards to information. They have worked the virus and noted when it mutated and the decrease in its virulent, and that the virus was affecting young adults, and was not requiring hospital stays as a rule unless the young adult was compromised with other health problems. The media don't find these statistics important, which is a shame.
Your link does provide goods graphs to show my point. Cases increase while death toll plummets.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/usNo, at this point the death toll is NOT decreasing in the USA, and the situation is ‘grim’:-
• The death toll reached its first peak in the USA on the 21st April with 2,748 deaths in a single day.
• The death toll reached its lowest point in the USA on 5th July with 262 deaths on that day.
• Since the 5th July deaths have been increasing again in the USA; on the 14th July there were 935 deaths, on the 15th July it was 1001 deaths.
The reason daily deaths in the USA have dropped by only two thirds since the first peak is because America has NOT got the pandemic under control.
The reason daily deaths in the USA have risen from its lowest point of 262 on 5th July to 1001 (a fourfold increase in deaths in just 11 days) is because America has NOT got the pandemic under control.
The reason daily deaths is on the increase again, a fourfold increase since the 5th July, is because America has NOT got the pandemic under control.
Daily deaths in the USA may only be a 1000 a day (as at 15th July), but that is a fourfold increase since the 5th July, and the TREND in deaths has been UP (not down) over the last 11 days e.g. America is NOW heading for a 2nd peak in deaths; which will almost certainly be a lot higher than 1,000 deaths a day, and considering how many people are becoming infected and being hospitalised at the moment in the southern States, daily deaths could easily reach or exceed the first peak within weeks.
The point you don’t seem to have grasped yet is that there is ALWAYS a TIME LAG of several weeks between becoming infected and being hospitalised, and a time lag of several weeks from being hospitalised and dying of Covid-19. New ‘Cases’ started to rise again in the USA on the 14th June (just over 4 weeks ago); many hospitals in the Southern States are already near or at capacity (if you’ve been watching the ‘news’); and American citizens are beginning to die in ever increasing numbers, if you re-examine the link. The situation can only now get worse by the week, for months to come (because of inaction by Trump to combat the pandemic); and there is nothing anyone can do about it, it’s now too late to stop the horrendous death toll that faces America over the coming months.
Texas hospitals running out of ICU beds (14th July): https://youtu.be/4cDtlYfwDHM
In contrast the UK death toll peaked at 1,172 on the 21st April (the same day deaths peaked in the USA), yet because of positive action by the British Government daily deaths in the UK are now just a 15th of what they were at the peak, and the daily average is still falling by the week.
There is a BIG difference between daily deaths falling by just two thirds in the USA from its peak, and daily deaths being a 15th of what it was at its peak in the UK: That should be a clue that something has seriously gone wrong in America.
One other point which you don’t seem to be aware of is that although initially it was the younger generation (where the risk of serious illness from Covid-19 is much lower) who were predominantly becoming infected a few weeks ago; since then their parents and grandparents (those at higher risk of death from Covid-19) are now becoming infected. It’s not rocket science to work out that the young will become infected in the first instance, because it’s that generation who socialise more, and are more blasé about catching the virus because they feel immune. And it’s no rocket science to realise, that within weeks the children who have contracted the virus will pass it onto their parents and grandparents (as is beginning to happen, if you research the data).Sharlee,
certainly case fatality numbers go down.
Just do a little number and fact checking.
Average age of Covid patients in the US has dropped significantly. By some 15 years. https://www.teletrader.com/average-age- … ture=de-DE
Probability of dying from Covid19 is increasing some 3 fold with every 10 years of age: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
If you compare average mortality of mid April to beginning of July (2 week rolling average): 100% in April vs 30% in July.
Active case pool April vs July: 100% vs 200% (some 1.6 Million now).
Then do this trick (a little simplified):
15 years younger: 1/6
Active cases: 2
Multiply: 1/6 x 2 = 1/3 = 33%
That is roughly of what the rolling average shows today in comparison to April. Not a result of better treatment, or of better response organisation - only the result of average biological constitution and resilience at younger age.
The higher the number of active cases, the more fatalities will show in relation to natural mortality of the population. And those active cases are still on the rise in the US. For weeks now by 20.000 every day.
Sad story.
Texas current stats-- 230,346, with 2,918 resulting in death.
You do realize there are 29 million people that live in Texas?
Texas 2019.2020 Influenza A (H1N1), as well as B influenza, was prevalent in Texas. H1N1 and B yearly flu killed over 2050 residence in Texas.
Table 8: Texas P&I Deaths Occurring Sept. 29, 2019 – Jan. 29, 2020* by Age
Age Category
(years)
Number of P&I
Deaths+
Mortality Rate
(per 100,000)
0 - 4 <10 0.37
5 - 17 13 0.24
18 - 49 180 1.36
50 - 64 439 8.46
65 + 2010 52.41
Overall 2650 8.85
file:///C:/Users/lssta/Downloads/20Wk10Mar13%20(1).pdf
The death rate at this point in the USA is actually plummeting in regard to new cases. One should consider the entire picture.
USA -- 61, 067 new cases yesterday 960 deaths.
New cases are increasing daily, yet the death rate is low and stabilizing.
U.S. Influenza Burden Population 342 million
Estimates
The Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC) have
released preliminary burden
estimates for the 2019-2020 flu
season. Between October 1,
2019 through April 4, 2020 CDC
estimates there have been:
• 39 million – 56 million flu
illnesses
• 18 million – 26 million flu
medical visits
• 410,000 – 740,000 flu
hospitalizations
• • 24,000 – 62,000 flu deathshttps://www.michigan.gov/documents/MIFluFocus_1_5_06_146893_7.pdf
Michigan Population 10 million
COVID 19 Stats
75,063 cases
Deaths:
6,271
Consider the yearly flu (H1N1) came in early and was killing people at an increased rate. NO media coverage, no shutdowns...H1N1 has killed millions over the years. We have a vaccine for H1N1. Which it well appears due to increased death rate not many citizens choose to get their yearly flu shot. Just in Michigan, we lost an estimated 24,000 – 62,000 flu to last year's flu versus 6,271 that have died from COVID19.
One needs to consider all viruses have can kill, and does, each year we have flu that kills far more people than residents realize.
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/MIFl … 6893_7.pdfSharlee, please help me to understand: Michigan has close to 10 million inhabitants. How can Michigan CDC come up with up to 56 mill. flu infections? Does it mean everyone gets the flu five times in the season, everyone from grandpa to toddler?
Anyways, i think comparison to regular flu is not appropriate. Apparently there no season for Covid19. The pandemic is not on summer leave.
To understand what is going on with the pandemic in the US or other countries, you have to look at active cases. This number is rising from day to day, currently some 25.000 per day with way over a million active cases. In old Europe active cases are down very much. Italy less than 14.000 and Germany some 6.000 to just pick some examples.
And - lets make a comparison to Germany, one quarter of the the US population. Active cases were rising until beginning of April. At that time Germany had a death toll of 1.200. 3 months later active cases are down to 1/10, but death toll is up to 9.000 today, almost 8 times as much.
I believe it is a good approach to compare situations if you compare active case development. With this in mind, the US is 2 to 3 months behind Europe. So, just imagine what happens to the US in 2 - 3 months time. How many times of the current death toll of 130k? Double?
Again, you don´t have to follow my thoughts. May be the US is only 6 weeks behind. 40 days with 700 deaths per day? The US will be lucky if Covid19 death toll is kept below 200k by the end of the year.
With the birds eye view from the outside: The US is doing nothing to tackle the problem. There is no plan, no strategy, except sticking the head in the sand (means doing less testing).
Sorry to say.My apology for the stats you questioned was that of the USA. My error. Michigans are included further down in the comment.
I was trying to point out we have yearly flu that has and will cause death yearly. Not sure why so many did not notice? It is apparent COVID has caused an exsorbent amount of deaths. Viruses are unpredictable in many ways. But most denature over time, hopefully, this one will.
Sharlee, “two wrongs don’t make a right”; just because flu kills up to 62,000 Americans each year is no reason to be complacent about Covid-19 having already kill 136,645 (more than double) Americans in just 4 months so far, and that death toll is still rising by almost a 1,000 a day currently, with no end in sight.
Yes a lot (but not all) viruses do kill, and yes flu (which is a killer) is seasonal; albeit the flu vaccines do help to save lives.
However, in countries where Governments did not act swiftly and decisively to combat Covid-19, and have failed to continue to act to contain the virus, the death toll from Covid-19 has been significantly higher than seasonal flu.
The death rate in the USA is NOT low (in comparison to countries who acted quickly to combat Covid-19), and the death rate certainly isn’t stabilizing in the USA; the death rate in the USA has increased significantly in the last few days.
As a comparison: Four countries (as examples) of how tens of thousands of lives have been saved by Governments in those countries because of the way they tackled Covid-19 to contain the pandemic:-
• Greece (population 10.4 million): Total deaths only 193.
• Australia (population 25.5 million): Total deaths only 106.
• South Korea (population 51.3 million): Total deaths only 288
• Germany (population 83.8 million): Total deaths 9,130
In contrast, USA (population 331 million): Total deaths 136,645
The USA population is 4 times larger than Germany’s, yet it’s had 15 times more deaths than Germany.
The USA population is 4 times larger than Germany, yet while currently almost a 1,000 people are dying from Covid-19 in the USA every day; only 8 are dying from Covid-19 a day in Germany.
If the 136,645 Covid-19 deaths in the USA had been unavoidable then our discussion would just be academic; but it saddens me that ‘if only’ Trump was committed to fighting Covid-19 (like other Governments around the world have dome), then (if you look at what South Korea, Australia, Greece and Germany have achieved) most of those 136,645 deaths could have been avoided.
Being a European, the loss of just one life is one too many e.g. we do have empathy for those who are dying from Covid-19, and their families; and for that reason are fully supportive in our Governments being cautious in slowly re-opening our economies.It is one thing how early and decisive action was taken by authorities, this lockdown stuff and distancing enforcement.
It is another thing how effectively you organize testing. The US is doing some 800 to 900 thousand tests per day. Some 20% of that testing must be set aside for finding out who recovered. At least that is what i would assume. By the way: after quarantine, where are all those recovered tested? Do they also stand in line?
So by now the US runs some 650.000 daily tests to find 65.000 dialy new infections within an active case spreading pool of 1.300.000.
To come back to comparison with G.: There are some 300 new infections reported daily. Testing is now at 15 to 20.000 per day, with an active case pool of some 6.000.
So comparing to the active case pool G. is testing 6 times as much as the US is doing. And the tests are directed to local outbreaks. If one kid in school is tested positive, you bet they test all contacts in school, all teachers, all class mates, parents, friends, neighbours. True story in our city. They found out about this one kid, because his grandfather worked in a food processing plant that had an outbreak. Contamination chain was fully tracked.
Totally different story in the US. The US is raining tests on everyone, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Austria... are watering only the crop and not the weed.Thanks for that Chris, quite informative.
As you said, how effectively a country organises its testing is an important factor, a task of which the British Government failed at miserable for the first couple of months of the pandemic (costing the lives of thousands of people); and even now it’s far from perfect because of Government incompetency.
However, the British Conservative Government has admitted its mistakes; which is refreshing. And since the short failings in the early months, the Government has made every effort to get things right.
The NHS set up nationwide drive through test centres on Monday 2nd March, but didn’t have the kits, resources or manpower to operate them all. By the 23rd March the UK had become so overwhelmed by the spread of pandemic that the Government abandoned testing altogether, and put the country into full lockdown instead.
It didn’t help that a few days later Boris (British Conservative Prime Minister) contracted the virus and by Sunday 5th April was in intensive care, and a few days later was on oxygen for a short period (where it was touch and go as to whether he would survive). It meant that during the height of the pandemic in April, the UK was leaderless, so important decisions were not being made.
Nevertheless, by mid-April the Government had resumed testing, and set itself a target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of April, with a target of 200,000 tests a day by the end of May. For the last two weeks of April the Government fell far short of its target, but on the last day achieved 122,000 tests. Then through most of May the Government struggled to meet its targets, but by the end of May did manage to achieve 200,000 tests per day.
Admittedly (as revealed last week) the Government only met its two targets by going for ‘quantity’ rather than ‘quality’; but the system (although far from perfect) is continuingly being improved, and 97.5% of the results are returned within 24 hours; and the Government does now have 27,000 ‘contact tracers’ to follow up on those tests (an increase of 2,000 contact tracers since the 1st June).
Currently, the Government (NHS) now has the capacity to do just under 300,000 tests per day, with 97.5% of results being returned within 24 hours. Albeit, on average about 160,000 tests are being carried out each day.
I don’t have the detailed breakdown of the tests in the UK, but as you said, some of the testing will be re-testing to see who has recovered, and a lot of regular testing of front line staff e.g. doctors and nurses, and people in high risk jobs.
However, 20,000 of those daily tests are random sampling of the nation for anti-bodies (research purposes only), of which our son was randomly picked, and his result (returned within 24 hours) was negative.
Also, a large number of the daily tests being carried out in the UK are conducted to closely monitor the ‘R’ (Rate of Infection) at a Regional/Local Level e.g. to closely monitor how rapidly the virus is increasing or decreasing in each city and major town across the UK.
The last part of the testing programme being critical to the UK Government’s ‘whack-a-mole’ policy of putting local communities back into lockdown, and isolating them from the rest of the UK, where the ‘R’ (Rate of Infection) exceeds ‘1’; as the UK Government did with the city of Leicester (population of over 300,000) a couple of weeks ago (in spite of protests from the local Mayor).
So currently, in the UK, around 160,000 tests are being carried out daily, of which over 500 are positive.
Fauci warns US is ‘knee-deep’ in first wave of coronavirus as new cases hit record numbers in some states
"It was a surge or a resurgence of infections superimposed upon a baseline," he clarified.
"If you look at the graphs from Europe, the European Union as an entity, it went up and then came down to the baseline. Now they're having little blips, as you might expect, as they try to reopen. We went up, never came down to baseline, and now we're surging back up."
Fauci testified to Congress last week that the daily number of infections could reach 100,000 a day if the government does not reign in the outbreak soon. He added Monday that the country's handling of the pandemic is “really not good."
“A series of circumstances associated with various states and cities trying to open up in the sense of getting back to some form of normality has led to a situation where we now have record-breaking cases,” Fauci said in a web interview with National Institutes of Health director Francis Collins.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/fauci-warns- … oronavirusPlease, what is really troubling in the US: There is no idea of how to go from "raining" tests down on the population to a more strategic testing method to reign in outbreaks on a local level.
In one way or the other, this is what most European administrations did and do. Develop tracking programs and hunt down infected as early as possible.
For the past month, all of Europe including Russia, Ukraine, Belorus and Turkey had a death toll rise of 16.000. The population is twice as high as of the US. Same monthly death toll rise for the US: 20.000.
It could be so easy. Just look at what others do and copy paste. There is no copyright on these successful testing strategies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ERH9His81AOn the 4th July England took the next tentative step to re-opening its economy by allowing pubs, restaurants, cafes, hairdressers and theme parks to open again for the first time since the 23rd March; provided they meet strict Government Guidelines, which includes giving your contact details at the door, as you enter the pub or restaurant; in the event they are needed by ‘contact tracers’.
4th July: Pubs, hairdressers and theme parks reopen in England https://youtu.be/k_GhhH6XLNg
Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are each independently following a similar, but more cautious approach to re-opening their economies.
Night clubs, theatres and cinemas etc. still remain closed, with no indication of when they may be allowed to re-open; but to compensate the Government has just issued a £2 billion handout in the form of grants and loans to the ‘Arts’ Industry.
With over 60,000 pubs in the UK, apart from Soho in London, where social distancing broke down outside the pubs on the 4th July; the British Public are generally respecting, and following, the Government’s safety guidelines on visiting pubs and restaurants.
However, within 48 hours of pubs reopening, 3 pubs in the UK had to close again, as part of the Government’s ‘whack-a-mole’ policy to control the spread of the virus.
Three short videos highlighting the UK Government’s ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Policy to control the spread of covid-19:
• Three pubs shut in England, due to coronavirus cases, within 48 hours of reopening on 4th July https://youtu.be/S40vU7Nng1E
• ‘Whack-a-Mole’ approach to controlling covid-19 in the UK: UK Government imposes local lockdown in city of Leicester after Covid-19 flare-up https://youtu.be/EC-_YHuVAZ0
• Other areas in UK at risk of going back into lockdown under the Government’s ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Policy https://youtu.be/NtPK57A7L4A
Yup, things are great.
Florida set a weekly record of nearly 500 coronavirus-related deaths, a roughly 16 percent increase from the last highest weekly mortality rate reported in May.
The state’s Department of Health reported 95 new deaths Saturday, bringing the weekly total to 496 fatalities, which is an average of 71 deaths a day.
Florida’s weekly mortality average three weeks ago stood around 30 fatalities before the state started seeing spikes -- reaching their current daily record of 120 deaths reported Thursday.UK ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Policy: Latest Update (Mid July)
There’s currently more than 100 ‘local spikes’ across the UK each week; most small (and don’t make the news) and all dealt with swiftly; the largest of which this week was a village farm in Worcester, England, where 73 out of 200 farm workers tested positive for Covid-19. The farm (and farm workers) has been placed under quarantine and food is being ferried into them.
The city of Leicester is still the only large community under lockdown, although the Government is closely monitoring about two dozen cities and towns where the ‘R’ value is close to ‘1’.
As regards facemasks in the UK: They are compulsory on public transport, but not in shops; a tiff has broken out in the Government this week where Boris (Prime Minster) wants to make facemasks in shops compulsory and Michael Gove (Minister for the Cabinet Office), 2nd in command, says no.
With the reopening of pubs & restaurants in England on 4th July, Scotland has warned that if the virus starts to spread again in England that Scotland will impose quarantine on all visitors from England if necessary.So operation Im-FU-so-lets-shift-the-blame has begun. Shameful but his expected modus operandi. SMH
It is not just three states.
The U.S. reported over 75,600 COVID-19 cases on Thursday alone, marking a new daily record as cases continue to surge across the country.
Fatalities amid the coronavirus pandemic also reached new highs this week.
Florida was one of 10 states to set a single-day record for deaths this week, including Alabama, Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Utah, according to the Times.
Also,
An unpublished document prepared for the White House coronavirus task force and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit newsroom, recommends that 18 states in the coronavirus "red zone" for cases should roll back reopening measures amid surging cases.
The "red zone" is defined in the 359-page report as "those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%."
The following 18 states are in the red zone for cases: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.
The report says the following 11 states are in the red zone for test positivity: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Washington.Scotland is doing exceptionally well (Monday 20th July):-
• Just 299 people now in hospital in Scotland with Covid-19 of which only 3 are in intensive care.
• Only 7 new Covid-19 cases in Scotland within the last 24 hours.
• Zero deaths in Scotland in the last 24 hours.Vaccine Update (22nd July):-
With a population of over 65 million, in hedging its bets, the UK has placed ‘Advanced’ orders for Covid-19 vaccines as follows:-
• 100 million doses from Oxford University (England), with the intention of donating doses surplus to the UK’s needs to poor countries in the third world (wherever needed) e.g. Africa, India etc.
• 30 million doses from BioNtech/Pfizer (Germany), and
• 60 million doses from Valneva (France).Interesting that the UK is so much into vaccines.
Do you need an antibody activation certificate or something like that?
I remember in the 60ties and 70ties when i got a shot (pox...) i had to show up at the doctor after a week or so to make sure, the vaccine was active.
How about travel restrictions? Will vaccines help? My wife and i want to go to Russia to visit relatives, not an easy task, because we face week long quarantines at entry and after return.
Even though Europe is mostly through with the mess (first wave), free travel will long remain a dream. The families of our kids will do vacation only in G. for the time being, same for us. Any local outbreak anywhere in Europe initiates lockdowns and travel bans.Yes, Boris screwed things up at the start of the Pandemic by not acting swiftly enough to put Britain into lockdown, and abandoned testing when it seemed an impossible task.
Since then Boris has done his best to beat the pandemic, being very cautious with every decision he makes e.g. mass antibody testing programme (20% sample of the population, for research purposes only); ensuring we have more than enough vaccines at the earliest opportunity, and reopening the economy in small steps (once every two weeks).
So I don’t know if any form of antibody activation certificate will be required or not; Boris isn’t making ‘arbitrary’ decisions in advance, but makes the final ‘detailed’ decisions at the last minute; tailored made to fit the current situation at the time. It’s a strategy that businesses find frustrating, but it’s one that seems to be working. For example, he gave two weeks’ notice of his intent to allow pubs and restaurants to reopen (subject to the downward trends in ‘positive cases’ and ‘deaths’ to continue), but he didn’t release the ‘fine’ details on what ‘Regulations’ the pubs and restaurants would have to comply to in order to be able to open until 48 hours beforehand; which didn’t give the pubs and restaurant owners much time to make the necessary arrangements to comply to the ‘Regulations’. And although his final decision was bold e.g. lowing the social distancing from 2m to 1m+, and it did come with a caveat that if it didn’t work he would roll back on the reopening of pubs and restaurants.
His strategy seems to have worked, because in spite of the increased risks, the ‘new cases’ and ‘deaths’ have continued downwards; which has surprised (but delighted) the Government. Consequently, on the phrase “Hope for the best, but plan for the worst” that Boris used last week; his latest ‘Broadcast to the Nation’ was for the Government to aim for an attempt of being able to abolish ‘Social Distancing’ completely in England by “No earlier than 1st November” but before Christmas, but stressing “No promises”, just “Best Efforts”!
As regards travel restriction. The UK Government introduced ‘travel corridors’ (air bridges), which took effect on 10th July; a list of 59 countries where people can travel from without the need to quarantine in the UK e.g. countries where the British Government has deemed the pandemic is on a par or better than in the UK; which obviously excludes the USA, but includes most European countries.
Apparently
some here are wrong AGAIN. Way off.
US hits 1,000 coronavirus deaths for second straight day, hospitalizations approach record
The U.S. hit 1,000 coronavirus deaths for a second straight day amid a continued spike in COVID-19 cases across the country.
The Johns Hopkins University data dashboard reported 1,195 U.S. coronavirus-related deaths Wednesday, the second consecutive day with more than a thousand fatalities. Meanwhile, the Covid Tracking Project showed nearly 60,000 people are hospitalized with the virus across the country, marking a continue rise from the end of June.
Hospitalizations are only about 200 short of the peak from April.
With more than 4 million cases and almost 150k deaths in US, I dont know how they have the face to keep minimizing the virus. But hey, MAGA!I don't know that "they"(1) are "minimizing the virus" nearly as much as "they"(2) are exaggerating and lying about what "they"(1) are actually saying.
Among all the posts so far ,I can't say there is a lie in any of them because the information are closely related to the world wide news so far and also no one can be 100% specific when it comes to issues of this kind because day in day out the data keeps on changing and the measures that are been put in place keeps on changing as more find outs are been made . Hence I can conclude to say the is any complete lie in any of the posts
Perhaps "they" just have a different opinion, avoid groupthink or maybe they just keep an open mind on the subject of a brand new virus that even the scientist are having a bit of trouble getting to know. Many look to other sources than media for information. So easy to copy and paste, takes little thought. Not sure anyone is purposely minimizing the virus. Maybe some are seeing the many effects it is having on our society, and not just concentrating on numbers.
Trump is “purposely minimizing the virus”; he has done so right from the start of the pandemic when he made the claim that the virus would quickly disappear and made little effort to combat it.
From across the pond we see Trump daily making stupid statements of denial that there’s a serious problem, and bosting that he’s doing a good job while not actually doing much to combat the virus; and often making statements or decisions that actually makes the pandemic in the USA worse.
While, unlike Trump, in other countries around the world where the virus is now under control Government Leaders have prioritised the pandemic as pubic enemy number ‘1’, and have taken stringent measures to tackle the pandemic and keep it under control; measures far more stringent than measures taken in the USA.
• New Covid-19 cases in the USA are now just shy of 70,000 a day with no sing of declining.
• Covid-19 related deaths in the USA are now as high as they were on the 7th June, and have been on the rise since the 5th July; and still rising.
• 1,165 Covid-19 related deaths in the USA on 21st July.
• 1,205 Covid-19 related deaths in the USA on 22nd July.
Covid-19 has now become one of the prime causes of deaths in the USA; and it’s not just the elderly dying; people with diabetes and people with obesity (of all ages) are also high risk of dying from Covid-19. Yet what is Trump doing about it; very little compared to what other world Leaders do.You need to consider the stats from the very beginning of the virus, not just consider values from June until today. The all-time death toll has been cut in half. We fully expected the rate of infection to go up when we started reopening our states as well as the increase in testing. Each Governor was responsible for opening their states. Each came up with their own individual plan. Most fared very well and out of 50 states, the majority are doing well and having daily deaths in single digits, even with some showing an expected increase in infections.
It seems unintelligent to claim COVID is the number one cause of death in the US. It's a pandemic.
I have become winery of hearing other countries are doing something different. Once again, Trump has no real power to overstep the Governor sessions for their individual states. You can say our Governors are doing nothing that would be more accurate. You don't seem to understand our laws in regards to this situation.
And exactly what do you feel other countries have done differently, in regards to mitigation?
Have you been looking at your own countries' stats? The US is five times bigger, and we have very different situations due to having very large populated cities. It's really very hard to compare many of the European cities to that of what we have in the States.
US total death per million 446
UK death toll per million 673
Not sure how you feel the UK has done better combating COVID? I have looked at the charts and see UK is doing very well now. Not sure when the UK reopened its economy. And not sure of how they reopened it. Here in the US, we had Govners all with different ideas of when and how to reopen their economies, some never really closed their economies.
I do realize many small European countries seem to have done very well. but the major European countries have not done much better than the US. One can see Germany did very well.Sharlee, please understand: As all of Europe has "bent the curve", the US has also bent the curve, only not downward but upward.
While the US is adding some 3 to 4 deaths/million every day (divide 1000 a day/330 million), this same figure is almost constant in old Europe. From today total numbers: Italy +5 (that is 0,08), Spain +3, Germany +5; France +10; add another 20 from continental Europe to fill up for a comparable population . Totally different picture. Europe has the matter under control and knows what to do when there is the slightest indication for a second wave.
German chancellor Angela Merkel made a statement in our Bundestag. She said in a very diplomatic manner that the virus uncovered the true face of populism. Without mentioning names everybody immediately understood who was ment: Bolsonaro, Johnson and ...
Johnson got sick himself and he changed his point of view. This is why the UK was hit badly but since has bent the curve. So while the UK is not quite where other European countries are, the UK is closing in.
We all live in the western world. We all come from developed countries. We use resources, technology and science. But if some administrations fail to organise, fail in responsibility and leadership, fail to allow science to show the way, it is no miracle that handling outcome is so much different.
And please, other countries have the same elderly care home situation, have the same administrative hurdles to overcome with federal/central and state/local responsibilities - that is no excuse.
There is a reason why approval rate for Chancellor Merkel is up and for President T. is down. Just saying.. ( and i never voted for the lady).I think I explained clearly that we do things differently here in the US. Each state has a Government as do our cities. The Governors in each state provided their own mitigations. The Federal Government helped when asked. Many here do not blame the president, we are unhappy with certain Governors for their lack of handling COVID.
Although this could have been expected, none have ever had to handle such a crisis. The blame should certainly not be put on Trump's head alone. The Governors would not hear of any Federal Government interference. Daily they were on TV expressing that... Now they turn and blame Trump. This is the way of the Democrats, they make little sense, and anyone with a clear head realizes this.
I would well think Merkel would truly dislike Trump, he has pointed out many times that Germany is not up to date with the amount that was in the NATO agreement that Germany would spend yearly spend on their national defense. It well appears Merkel is well-liked by her citizen's, she seems very capable, Trump has been a thorn in her side from their first meeting.With due respect, certainly the US is doing things differently than other countries. Especially politicizing a pandemic. The US is exceptional in how much the nation is divided, even on something as unpolitical as a disease.
Lets try to stick to numbers and facts:
A real treat is worldometer, a website where the historic track of the pandemic in a country can be looked up. Every country had a peak in daily new cases (almost every country except the US). It must be understood that this peak was and is only the beginning of the tragedy. Italy had its peak end of March. At that time some 10.000 fatalities. By today with curve totally flattened: 35.000 deaths. Factor 3,5. Same for other countries: Spain: 4,1 - Germany 9,0 - South Korea 6,8 - China 4,2.
Means from the day that daily new infections peaked the death count multiplied by 3,5 to 9,0 (with the countries with best handling having the highest multiplier).
The US has not even peaked, so what to think. Lets have a closer look. The state of New York, or possibly Michigan indeed have peaked. Doing the same trick for NY and you get factor 3,8. Well within what was found with complete nations on our planet.
Do you want me to do this calculation on the US of today? Will get to death numbers in the range US casualties of WWII.
Shifting responsibility from one level of management to another, with respect to what is still ahead, this i would call "failure to provide assistance", isn´t that a criminal offense?I am more than willing to stick to the stats. What I am not willing to agree with is that our president is at the center of being blamed for how the virus was and is being handled.
That blame is at the feet of the individual Gov. A good example of the ridiculous politics of our country. The Governors have once again made it very clear they are legally responsible for school reopening, and once again they are coming up with their very own individual plans on how to reopen the schools in their state. They have made it very clear they will not take any form of advice from the Federal Government.
No one is forcing them to do anything, they have the sole power, once again this is the law... It their plans fail they will surely blame it on the President.
This is a sad fact, they blamed him for his handling of the virus and the deaths in their states. Trump took every opportunity to offer any form of assistance to these Governors, as well as did what he could within the laws.
I think anyone that does not know the facts of what power the president had to do anything in regards to the virus should not insult how he handled it. I realize the media is giving a skewed picture of what has gone on. But they neglect to give all the facts, the very important fact Trump had very little power to do anything but provide what the Governors asked fro. he had the right to form a task force that he did early in Jan. He had the power to close our borders to air travel from China and Europe. He used wartime laws to make our factories to build vents. He provided the stimulus to support citizens while they were in lockdown. He poured outrages amounts of money into research to find a vaccine and curative medications.
I am a Trump supporter, I am 70 years old, and I have never experienced a hands-on president that is willing to solve problems. He has tackled problems that have plagued America for decades. No, he is not popular with the Democrats. They have been made to look like fools... They care little about anything but power and keeping the poor from ever realizing anything but crumbs, programs that hand them a bit, but never enough. Trump is for all the people, funny so many do not have the intelligence to see that. Maybe because many do not actually know anything but what they are fed.
In the case of Trump and the Virus. He has done and will continue to do all he can by the power that was given to him. In the case of a pandemic, he has very little and has done what the law has allowed.
So, when you look to blame anyone, look at the Governors of each state. They called the shots, and that is just a fact that not many are willing to realize. They just would rather scream"it's all Trump's fault" And I can assure you no one is but those same governors are handling school reopenings. Trump has zero power to make those decisions.
Please keep that in mind if you witness a Governor on the tube blaming Trump for some child getting COVID after returning to school... Not taking any blame although it was their very own reopening plan.Sharlee, we Europeans certainly have the privilege of not living in the mess the US has maneuvered itself into.
Last week Corona related fatality rate in Europe was in the range of 0,5% of natural mortality, down from almost 10%. The US is at 15 to 20 times that number today. This is total failure. You better forget the blame game and stick your heads together to solve the issue.
This discussion thread is ongoing already for some 3 months. If you reread the discussion contributions, the development in the US was predictable. Why do laymen seem to have more insight than complete administrations?
Most of the world is simply aghast and stunned of how miserable the response of the US is to the pandemic. Unbelieveable, a very sad story.
Sharlee, I’ve read your other comments, and for clarity, I am not disputing that decisions are made at State level; I understand that, as I’ve explained on several previous occasions in this forum e.g. it’s the same in other countries, like Australia, Germany and the UK.
In the UK the decisions on how to handle the pandemic is not made by Boris (UK Prime Minister), they are made separately and independently by each of the Government Leaders in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The only part of the UK that our Prime Minister has full control of is England. So consequently the laws on social distancing, and on which parts of the economy can open, and under what Regulations does vary from nation to nation e.g. England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
However the big difference between the way the pandemic is being handled in the UK and in the USA is that:-
• In the UK the pandemic is NOT Political e.g. ALL political Parties, and Governments (regardless to politics) are working together to fight a common enemy; the virus.
• In the UK the Prime Minister, all political Leaders, all politicians, all four nations, and the general public at large, take the pandemic seriously.
• In the UK the Prime Minister (and all political leaders of the four nations) have made a point of basing their decisions on the advice of the scientific and medical experts; not the economists.
I agree the State Governors (Republicans and Democrats alike) are making a hash of things, none of them that I’ve seen on TV (except for the Governor in New York) have a clue on how to combat the virus, and all too often seem too focused on keeping the economy open regardless, and too many young American people just don’t care about social distancing.
However, it’s at a time like this that you need a President who can lead, to unite the country and to encourage the people. But in watching Trump speak on TV over the months, his ‘words’ are divisive, and rather than encouraging the people to help fight the pandemic he has repeatedly been ‘dismissive’ of the pandemic (often in denial) and politicised the wearing of masks e.g. until recently he was very ‘anti-mask wearing’, calling people wusses if they wore a mask.
Also, throughout the months I’ve watched Trump on TV he has often been at odds with the Scientists and Medical Advisors. Trump is neither a Scientist nor a Medical Expert, and yet, time and time again on TV he’s claimed that he knows better than they do.
When Trump belatedly put the USA into lockdown in late March, it was Trump who stated on TV (in front of the cameras) that he wanted to economy to be reopened re-opened again on the 1st April (which never happened); but in accordance with the wishes of Trump, the States did start to re-open the economies again just six weeks after shutdown (far too soon); hence the mess the USA is in now.
Covid-19 is now (for this year) the one of the main causes of death in many southern States, and it was avoidable; many European countries did manage to keep the death toll from Covid-19 low.
With reference to your comment “And exactly what do you feel other countries have done differently, in regards to mitigation?”-
• Shutting their economies down early like Greece, Germany etc. Something Italy, Spain, the UK and USA did not do.
• Not reopening their economies until:-
(i) the virus had peaked, and was in decline for a minimum of 14 consecutive days,
(ii) the number of new cases were down to manageable levels,
(iii) mass testing was fully operational, and
(iv) sufficient contact tracers were employed, trained and ready to do their job.
(v) Once the economies were re-opened, to establish a ‘whack-a-mole’ strategy of control for future flare-ups.
Unlike every other country, the USA did not wait the 14 days, it only waited 7 days.
Unlike every other country, the USA did not wait for new cases to come down to manageable levels, in the USA new cases were still high when States reopened their economies, and now are sky rocketing.
Mass testing had problems in the USA, just as we had problems with mass testing in the UK; albeit we have now largely resolved those problems, but not so in the USA.
The USA never did employ enough contract tracers. The CDC recommendation was for a minimum of 100,000 contact tracers. As of 18th June, the USA only had 37,100 contact tracers. In contract the UK (with a population a 5th of the size of the USA) now has 27,000 contact tracers.
All countries that have successfully got the pandemic under control, including the UK, use a ‘whack-a-mole’ strategy, effectively and ruthlessly. In contrast State Governors in the USA are ‘firefighting’ the pandemic, and are far too reluctant to lockdown the economy to control the virus e.g. far more interested in trying to keep the economy going. And there is NO National Strategy from Trump, who by and large is just ignoring the issues, and focusing too much on the Presidential Election.
In answer to your last three paragraphs: Yes, I do check my own country’s stats (UK), and like the USA, the UK also has large populated cities e.g. London is comparable to New York City. The easiest way to make a comparison is too compare the EU with the USA. The EU (with 27 States) has almost double the population to the USA (50 States), yet the EU has managed the pandemic far more effectively, and the death toll across the EU is far lower than the USA.
In answer to your comment “Not sure how you feel the UK has done better combating COVID?”
At the start the UK, Italy and Spain made the same mistake as the USA e.g. they were too slow in shutting down their economies, and putting their people under lockdown; and like the USA these countries paid a high price e.g. death tolls more than double of what it would have been if only these countries had acted more swiftly in the first place.
However, since then Italy, Spain and the UK, have all diligently followed the scientific and Medical Advice from the Scientific and Medical Experts, and have put their economies as secondary to the health of the people. The USA has not, the USA has always, and still is, far more intent on putting its economy first, regardless to how many lives it costs.
In answer to your questions: “Not sure when the UK reopened its economy; and not sure of how they reopened it.”-
The UK is four nations, the three Celtic nations (Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland), and the Anglo-Saxon Nation of England. The Government in England is right-wing Conservative, the Government in Northern Ireland is hard-right wing; the Governments in Wales and Scotland are Socialists.
However, in spite of the political and social differences of the four nations of the UK, England has taken the lead (based on Scientific and Medical Advice), and the three Celtic Nations have followed England’s lead, but at their own pace, and with modifications (variants) to the Regulations laid out in England.
So below is when England re-opened its economy; the three Celtic Nations in the UK followed a similar pattern.
1. 23rd March until 1st June: Only ‘essential services’ allowed to be open e.g. Medical, Infrastructure, food and DIY.
2. 15th May: Garden Centres added to the list of ‘Essential Services’, and therefore allowed to open again for the first time since the 23rd May.
3. 1st June: Schools allowed to reopen.
4. 15th June: Non Essential shops allowed to reopen for first time since 23rd March.
5. 4th July: Pubs and Restraints, hairdressers and tourism allowed to reopen. And non-essential workers allowed to go back to work.
6. 25th July: Health and Fitness e.g. Gyms, swimming pools etc. allowed to reopen.
The only parts of the UK economy still not open (and with no indication of when they might open) are the nightclubs and conference rooms e.g. cinemas and theatres etc. Albeit Boris (Prime Minister) has stated his desire to have the UK economy fully open by no earlier than the 1st November, but before Christmas.
Certainly, from across the pond, the ‘THEY’ is clearly ‘Trump’, who is “minimizing the virus”. Right from the start of the pandemic Trump was in denial and dismissive of the pandemic, and even now isn’t fully engaged in fighting the pandemic.
I must disagree. I followed Trump's comments due to what he was aware of the virus. In the first days, he was given poor information, that is really just being discovered today. In the first days, he was told the virus would not most likely cause a problem. As he discovered the first case he stopped travel from China. He did this with many to telling him it was not necessary. To include Fauci, WHGO, CDC, Biden, Pelosi, and many more...
I note so many are quick to say he is not handling the virus properly. I have also noted no one step up with any suggestions to what he could have done differently. many hung up on words he said, "it will go away"... etc. No one really realizes that this virus was an unknown virus, brand new. Many com[lain about testing not realizing the true science that is needed to develop these very tests. The fact is our National stockpile was empty due to our own CDC not keeping them as they should be kept.
I gave tired of all the rhetoric slamming Trump for his handling of the virus. He actually has done a good job in a terrible crisis. If one wants to lay blame lay it at the feet of the Governors. Fact --- they demanded he keeps his nose out except for answering their requests for supplies and money. He had no power to control how the states handled the virus. Hence over half in New York were Nursing home patients. The Governors bare the blame of how the virus was handled. Trump provides huge secondary facilities to New York, they used them little. New York's blood is on the hands of their Governor. So, when you are producing your stats keep in mind we had 50 Governors making decisions, not the president, he had no power to do so... Now some of the Governors blame Trump, let the fact show he was in constant contact offer help to each and every state.
He was fully engaged providing 50 states with everything he could possibly do to help with what was needed to treat the pandemic. He is still very much involved, and once again reminded by the Governors he has no say so in the handling of the virus. yet when anything goes wrong, they are quick to Blame Trump... It's actually ridiculous. Let's see how the Gov handles reopening of the schools because that is also up to each individual Gov. Yet they complain daily about Trump's suggestions. It's up to them, not Trump. This is just a fact.I know we disagree with each other on these points, but then again that’s because you are a faithful Trump supporter to a point that you are blinkering out the other realities that would show Trump for who he really is.
Picking up on your first point: In the first days (as you put it) Trump had as much advanced notice and as much information as Boris (UK Prime Minister) and every other Government Leader had in Europe (and around the world). So it is incorrect to say “he was told the virus would not most likely cause a problem”: Look at how the rest of the world responded at the time, for example:-
• South Korea had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on 20th January; South Korea took swift action to prevent the spread of the pandemic from the 4th February (just two weeks later).
• Italy suspended flights from China on the 31st January. Italy had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 20th February. Italy is put into ‘full’ lockdown on 9th March (2 ½ weeks later).
• Spain had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 31st January. Spain is put into ‘full’ lockdown on 14th March (six weeks later).
• The UK also had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 31st January, but didn’t impose a ‘full’ lockdown until the 23rd March (almost two months later).
• The USA had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 20th January (10 days before the UK and Spain). The USA suspends flights from China on the 31st January (the same day that Italy did); the only difference is that it didn’t include ‘American citizens’ who were still allowed to travel back to the USA, and not quarantine e.g. which allowed the virus to spread further. Whereas in Europe the travel bans did include the countries own citizens, who when repatriated did have to quarantine for 14 days.
The USA was the LAST major western economy to impose a lockdown, going into ‘partial’ lockdown days after the UK had gone into ‘full’ lockdown; in spite of the fact that the USA had its first confirmed Covid-19 case 10 days before Spain and the UK.
So (just like the UK) long before March, Trump knew what was coming, but chose to ignore it.
The UK, Spain and Italy were slow to respond, and paid the price. The other European countries, who responded quickly, got off lightly: Most notably Greece, who lockdown their economy early and hard, and consequently with a population of over 10 million have had just 201 Covid-19 deaths. Likewise, South Korea, who took swift and harsh actions to control the pandemic, with a population of over 50 million have had just 298 Covid-19 related deaths.
And the other BIG mistake Trump made was to ‘press’ for the USA economy to re-open far too soon, long before the pandemic was under control in the USA. The USA was the last country to go into lockdown; in comparison to the tough lockdown measures imposed in countries across Europe, the lockdown in the USA was only ‘partial’ (less effective), and the USA stayed in ‘lockdown’ far shorter than any European country e.g. less than six weeks, whereas some European countries stayed in lockdown for twice as long (three months).
Moving onto your second paragraph: It’s Trump who kept saying (and still says) “it will go away….” which is a lie. The virus will only go away if you take decisive action to combat it, which is something Trump has NEVER done.
With reference to your comment:
“I note so many are quick to say he is not handling the virus properly. I have also noted no one step up with any suggestions to what he could have done differently.”
All Trump needs to do is look at how other Governments around the world e.g. the actions Governments have taken in Europe (including the UK) to understand what he could have done differently. For example, he should have shut the economy down quicker and harder, and left it shut down until the pandemic was under control, impose harsher rules on ‘Social Distancing’ (like ALL the European countries (including the UK) did; and he should have promoted ‘mask wearing’ and ‘testing’; rather than doing what he did, which was discouraging people from wearing masks and deriding ‘mass testing’.
I know the USA have had, and still has, big problems with mass testing; the UK had similar problems. The only difference is that we didn’t have a President that ridiculed testing all the time; we had a Prime Minister who was devoted to resolving the issues, which (to a large extent) Boris Johnson has achieved e.g. 97.5% of test result in the UK are now returned within 24 hours; in spite of the massive problems we had with testing in April and May.
As regards your penultimate paragraph: I am fully aware that the handling of the pandemic has been done at State level and not Federal level; that is exactly the same as it is the world through e.g. in Australia, Germany and the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). The main difference, which does put the blame squarely at Trump’s feet, is that he has NOT led e.g. he’s been in denial about the virus, and trivialising it, from day one e.g. making stupid statements like “it will go away….”, and then making no attempt to encourage the States to combat the pandemic. Whereas the other world leaders (including Boris) have fully engaged with their ‘State’ Leaders, to work together to fight a common enemy (regardless to politics).
As regards your last paragraph: No Trump is not, and never has been, fully engaged in support the States in fighting the pandemic; he’s been too busy in trying to reopen the economy to try to win votes in the forthcoming Presidential Election in November, rather than worrying about the lives it costs by opening up an economy in a middle of a pandemic.
Your last point is a prime example. Trump shouldn’t being trying to force the States to reopen the schools in August, regardless; he should be taking scientific and medical advice on whether it’s safe to do so, and if not, how it may be made safe to do so. We have similar problems in the UK with regards to schools, but the whole situation is being handled differently.Opening the schools by law is up to the Governors of the individual states. The Dems are playing politics with their reopening of the schools. They need to blame someone if their plans to reopen schools fail. Just not up to Trump, anyone that knows our laws realizes this.
The Governors made a mess of how they handled COVID, and have made every attempt to blame Trump. He had no input on how they handled COVID that is a fact. As it is a fact they must handle reopening of the schools.
You can blame Trump as you please. However, I have watched him do each and everything he could to work with the Governors, and he used his power if the law allowed it to solve hard problems that he faced with the CDC and WHO.
It is futile for us to continue this conversation, I don't feel you just do not understand our laws.
In the end, it matters little, because as a citizen of America I am very aware of our laws. It is also very apparent many Americans are not aware of our laws or choose to ignore them in the case of what power Trump really had when it came to making decisions about the virus.
Yes it was clear he was dismissive of it, when he closed the borders to China and then Europe.
Even when the WHO at that time denounced his actions and said they were not necessary.
Trump could have declared Martial Law, or something akin to it that the Law allows, to force States to do as he directed.
But he did not, so the issues or non-issues with the virus and how it was handled are largely the responsibility of the States. This is how the American system is set up, it can be a strength and a weakness, when dealing with a pandemic it is clearly too much for most of our incompetent Governors and their State bodies to handle, many of them pass the responsibility down to the counties, or city councils to deal with.
The American media's attack on Trump, and everything he states, rather than working to support the government to get out a clear message, also goes a long way to the problems we have had.
And then there is the good old fashioned rioting and protesting going on, where tens of thousands of people gather together to help spread the virus by ignoring all social distancing or self containment.
America is divided and divisive, its politics, its media, its people... its beyond repair and its destabilization is going to continue... it will only hasten once Trump is removed, the collapse will be like an avalanche post election.
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/07/31/c … th-crisis/
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/j … in-n580259
https://jonathanturley.org/2020/07/17/s … epartment/
https://trendingpolitics.com/nyc-mayor- … -protests/
Every tale alone, is no big deal, when you weave them all together to get a quilt of the current State of the Nation.... it is on its way to collapse.
Economically....
Socially....
A people divided... distracted... demoralized by their own 'leaders' and lied to by their MSM.I don’t dispute the bulk of what you say e.g. a large number of the State Governments are as incompetent and or irresponsible as the Federal Government: That is very much in evident from watching on TV the crap the State Governors spout.
I agree that the American media should support the Federal Government to get out a clear message [as you say]: But what is that clear message:-
• Trump has politicised the wearing of masks; he almost never wears a mask, he’s has stated in the pass that only wusses wear masks: He does not lead by example, throughout most of the whole pandemic he has not encouraged people to wear masks; he sets a poor example.
• Throughout the whole pandemic Trump has been dismissive of ‘Social Distancing’. He never ‘Social Distanced’ and he doesn’t encourage his supporters to ‘Social Distance’; prime examples of that being his political rallies during the pandemic e.g. the Tulsa rally on 20th June, when all ‘social distancing’ rules were deliberately ignored: He does not lead by example, and he sets a poor example.
• Trump's enthusiasm for hydroxychloroquine, a drug that hasn’t been proven to be effective, and where the scientific evidence is mounting that it’s not effective; sets a poor example.
• Trump’s advice to take disinfectant internally was dangerous advice; sets a poor example.
• Trump’s constant push, throughout the pandemic, to reopen the economy (contrary to scientific and medical advice) e.g. his claim in late March that the economy would reopen again on the 1st April: Reckless advice, sets a poor example.
• Trump’s constant claim that ‘testing is bad’ because the more tests you do the more infected people you find!!!! A counterproductive attitude; and one that shows his ignorance of the situation.
I’ve seen no evidence of Trump trying to ‘unite’ the nation; I’ve seen no evidence of Trump sending out any clear messages for people to wear masks and socially distance; I’ve seen no evidence of sympathy or empathy from Trump for the 156,752 people who have lost their lives to Covid-19, or their families who have lost loved ones. In fact Trump almost never talks about the pandemic, when he makes public speeches his priorities are always on other things.
So I ask again, what is that clear message from Trump to the American people in support of fighting the pandemic?
Below is yesterday’s Briefing to the Nation by British Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, demonstrating how a GOOD Leader should ‘Unite the Nation’ and ‘Encourage’ people to fight the pandemic:-
Boris Johnson reintroduces coronavirus restriction measures (Address to the Nation): https://youtu.be/nRSNapbJZncI assume you check stats on Worldometer. I have pointed this out before but if one is comparing the UK's state to that of the UK one needs only do the math. The USA population is 5 times large in the then the UK. Yesterday the Death toll in the UK reached 46,119 x5 =230,595. The death toll in the USA as of yesterday was 156,813, as you can see the UK is experiencing a far greater death toll. Death per million in the UK 679 --USA 474 per million. I listened to the Prime Minister, he admitted at this point the numbers of infection are on the rise, as many countries ar having this surge so is the UK. He certainly has projected the same exact message President Trump has been sharing here in the USA. He certainly is more eloquent in his delivery, but the same message...
If one were to consider the death toll in the UK, one could surmise that the crisis was handled poorly, as you have stated the US has handled the crisis. Or perhaps both countries did the best job possible. As you feel Prime Minster Johnson is uniting the nation, I can assure you many here in the US feel very confident President Trump has handled a very difficult situation well. President Trump has from the beginning tried to assure the country that not only is he doing all he can to combat the virus, but yes, he has said it will go away. I took those words as comforting not off handly negative as the media twisted the statement. I would think someone removed from the US could see our media for what it has become, as many of us here do.
At this point, many countries that had been doing well are faltering at this point. One should keep in mind this is a virus, and viruses especially new ones are very hard to tame. As H1N1 which is still around, and the flu they are vaccination for once again this fall. H1N1 pledged us all way back in 2009 and is not about to disappear. It has mutated down to a less fatal virus, as we can hope COVID will at some point.
I am sorry to say I won't address your points, due to all were media-driven. Each one if put into the proper context shows the media's dishonesty. Which could be very easily done. However, I am not one that is willing to do this due to the sheer time it would take, and one can see what persuasion you lean... It would be futile to argue the point.
To understand the context of Trump's statements one needs only research full content of a give interview or press conference where the statement was taken from. The media conveniently takes a sentence or two and just does not use them in the context they were meant. This is unfortunate, but many here in America can see directly through the media ploy. Although many do not care one way or the other about what Trump said, if true or not true, they want him gone. Transparency does not sit well with many here in America.Some of your points regarding Trump's comments are completely accurate.
Some are the result of the Media taking his words out of context.
If the media were working to minimize whatever harm Trump's at times confusing communication could lead to, rather than maximizing it for 'click bait' and for political bias, all people the world over would be better off for it. But that is not the state of the "News" media today.
As the well educated Socialist that you are, I am sure you recognize the many Marxist political tools being deployed in America today, complicit in this is most "News" media outlets, the Democratic Party and those politicians at the Federal and many State levels.
From "defund the police" efforts to "racism is a public health emergency" to "all white people are inherently evil" the all out "progressive" push can be seen at every level and from a variety of venues throughout society in many various locations.
These are not small isolated efforts of minor import... they are rally cries taken up by State governments and agencies, by the NY Times and CNN, by the Democratic Party itself.
Neither Party has a leader than can bridge this divide and mend the country.
And even if such a messiah existed... the economic collapse that is looming on the horizon like a tsunami coming in to the shoreline will make it impossible for the country to see better days ahead, no matter who is President.
Its just a matter of how bad things will get, how out of control and desperate the people will become, before order is once again restored.
As for Trump's message, he gives good speeches from time to time... a recent one at Mt. Rushmore is a good example of how the "left-wing" media conflates and denigrates and misrepresents what he says any chance they get.
The revolutionaries and elitists make strange bedfellows under the Democratic Party umbrella. Throw in those that only care about power as politics is want to attract, and you have an ugly festering union of causes all bent toward the destruction of Trump even if it comes at the destruction of the nation and all that made it a place everyone else in the world tried to escape to.You raise some interesting points Ken (as usual).
Propaganda and political spin etc. are not ‘Marxist’ specific political tools; they are tools that have always been used by all political parties (left & right); but yes I am fully aware that a lot of the stupid remarks made by Trump (such as his suggestion of taking disinfectant internally) is going to make good fodder for ‘click bait’ and political spin by the news media.
And certainly, highlighting stupid remarks like “taking disinfectant internally” would detract from the main message; if there was a main message to detract from: But I’ve seen little (or no) evidence of Trump ever seriously giving any main message to the American people in support of fighting the pandemic.
“Defund the police”, “Racism” and “white supremacy” etc., are all part of American politics that I don’t pay much attention to; as I’ve got far better things to do with my time than follow American politics e.g. currently in the middle of renovating our home-office. In this respect, I fast forward over our recordings of the American Politics and just playback the bits of the American News Media relevant to the pandemic, including the rare occasions when Trump holds a Press Conference relevant to the pandemic (which isn’t often).
Yep, that is the impression I get: That neither Party has a ‘Leader’ who can unite the nation (the American people); it does seem very much a deeply divided nation, with no signs that those divisions can be healed quickly or easily: Which is sad when the USA is in economic crises and in the middle of a pandemic; the one time more than any other that you need a Leader to heal wounds and unite the people.
I am sure that to Trump Supporters specifically, and to Republicans in general, that Trump does “….give good speeches from time to time….” e.g. Mt. Rushmore. However, if you are not a Trump supporter (Republican) it’s going to be a matter of opinion on whether they are good speeches (politics). However (regardless to politics) the one thing that is lacking in such speeches is Trump taking the pandemic seriously; the one aspect of the USA which (to me as an outsider) is of particular interest at this time.
In contrast, Boris Johnson (UK Prime Minister) is a Conservative (right wing capitalist), and therefore, with me being a Socialist, Boris is someone I did not vote for; and during normal times I am vehemently opposed to most of his political policies; with the exception to his Environmental policies. Yet Boris frequently appears on TV to talk to the ‘Nation’ about the pandemic, and he has not only got the support of ALL political parties in the UK (including the Socialist Parties) in his fight against the pandemic, but he also has the full backing of the British People e.g. he has managed to unite the nation in the fight against the pandemic.
I do empathise with your message about the direction the USA is going, economically and socially, in that “Britain has been there and done that” e.g. prior to the 1st world war Britain was the wealthiest nation on Earth; now we are just a third rate country with (because of Brexit) set to become marginalised even further in the years to come. So it does look as if in the 21st century the USA is going in the same direction that Britain went in the 20th century.I'm sure that you're right - no liberal (Trump hater) is going to take any speech he makes as anything but garbage. They will take things like turning to a medical expert and asking if it is possible that disinfectant taken internally might be of help and turn it into "TRUMP SAYS TO SWALLOW BLEACH!". I've seen that video byte over and over and it was nothing like what you're portraying happened, which is a very good example of why the Trump haters (worldwide) will never find anything he says to be of any value. When he does say something rather foolish it is grossly exaggerated or spun into something entirely different than what he said. It reminds me of another stupid claim; that Trump banned all Muslims from travelling to the US, when he did absolutely nothing of the sort.
Fair point wilderness, but you have to be pretty dumb to not know that taking disinfectant internally isn’t dangerous. And that’s what dumbfounded me when I saw Trump on TV ask such a stupid question. And Trump’s lack of understanding of mass testing is just as dumbfounding. It’s his stupidity over simple issues like these that portrays Trump to the world as being ‘Thick’; you don’t need any left wing media to show Trump up, he does it all by himself through his own stupid remarks and his frequent ‘tweets’.
FYI I’m not a Liberal, that’s too far right wing for me, I’m a Socialist. And true to say I do hate Trump, but that’s not because he’s a Republican e.g. I had no gripe against Ronald Reagan or George Bush, I had respect for them as the democratically elected Presidents of the USA.
Yes I know Trump didn’t ban all Muslims from travelling to the USA, but what he did do was to sign ‘Executive Order 13769 in January 2017, Official Title “Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States”, and politically labelled as a “Muslim ban” by opponents to such a measure.
The signing of the order did provoke widespread condemnation and protests, and became known as a ‘Muslim ban’ because Trump had previously called for temporarily banning Muslims from entering America, and because all the affected countries, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are Muslim countries.
The response from Britain at the time to Trumps attitude against Muslims was mass protests against Trump across Britain, with over 1.5 million Britain’s signing a petition to ban Trump from entering the UK. Since then the British people have hated Trump more than citizens of any other European country hate Trump e.g. in the UK 67% of the British people hate Trump, 14% don’t have an opinion, and only 18% of Brits actually like Trump.
I understand and appreciate that for people who have right-wing leanings, to them it wasn’t a ‘Muslim ban’, it was a ‘Travel ban’; but that’s politics. However, it’s not so much what Trump did, it’s the way in which he did it and his attitudes which are plain for all to see e.g. if Trump was more ‘Statesman’ like (more Diplomatic) then Trump could have achieved the same thing with his travel ban and hardly anyone in Britain would have noticed, or taken any notice, or cared. But it’s the way that Trump does things, and the way that he says things, and his attitudes (rather than his politics) that riles the British Public.Further to my last point wilderness:-
Response to Trump’s Travel ban by the Speaker of the House of Commons (a right-wing Conservative MP), in the UK: https://youtu.be/vELQlgoaDdQ
And:
Point of Order raised in British House of Commons (Parliament) regarding President Trump's tweets: https://youtu.be/nsqC1NZIbts
I would concur, but I believe the hardships for America will be far more difficult.
The UK was unified as a people/culture, and they had been hardened by two world wars as well into a unified people.
In contrast there is no more divisive and divided a nation today than the US of A. America going through this hardship will not have a unified people/culture and will not have been hardened and united by world events.
Additionally the UK had a strong ally with close historical beliefs and customs that usurped its position as global leader, it was a peaceful hand over between allies.
America is being usurped by China, hostilities are higher between the two, whereas the UK and USA had been allies, there are no close historical beliefs and customs adjoining China to America, as there are between the UK and USA.
There was not the global devices in place that we have today with the UN, WB, IMF, etc. so they may help in such a transition, but not if China becomes dismissive of their authority or power, which is most likely to occur, as China is not beholden to these Western concepts or concerns. China is all about China, and ensuring the rest of the world is beholden to its whims.Thanks for your feedback Ken.
Yeah, the UK is a unified people to a point, but there are divisions which could yet turn violent if mismanaged by the Government e.g. Brexit and England vs the Celtic Nations:-
• The Irish civil war in the 1920’s which saw southern Ireland becoming independent from England, and the more recent civil war in northern Ireland between 1968 and 1998 which saw the IRA via Sinn Fein (their political wing) signing an uneasy Peace Treaty with England in 1999, and
• The current fight by Scotland to become Independent from England.
Culturally, there is also a divide between northern & southern England, which from time to time causes political friction.
True, Britain did hand back most of its conquered lands peacefully during the 20th century, creating the Commonwealth. And even those countries who had to fight for their Independence from Britain e.g. the USA, India etc., have since become allies to the UK.
However, hostilities between Britain and Russia are as high (if not higher) than the hostilities between the USA and China; so we have the same problem as you, just with a different communist country.I am not referring to today's UK.
I was accenting the differences between the UK transitioning in the 20th Century - to America transitioning in the 21st Century.
I agree with the overall concept you noted - that the UK had to downsize its position in the world and its economy in the 20th And now America faces a similar situation.
There are substantial differences between these two, and more importantly, why it went so smoothly as the UK handed off to the USA... and how it will be quite more painful, for the whole world, as we continue this transition from the USA to China.
Both the UK and Russia are "role" players, 'supporting actors'.
UK's differences and hostilities with Russia are somewhat irrelevant to the global economic turmoil that is currently ongoing, with worsening effects to most nations coming in the years ahead.
The USA is the #1 military and economic power... and it is being usurped in both categories by China.
China is building the newest and best from 5G to Jet Fighters to AI, they are by far the leading industrial nation today, and they are taking the lead in technological and biological breakthroughs.
China will have 8 times the number of STEM graduates than America this year. While America is busy pumping out their new Social Justice graduates (yes there are such degrees handed out in the States) the Chinese are focusing on sciences and technology.From your perspective, as an American, yes, what you say is a valid view point.
But from my perspective, as a European, it’s a different view point.
Yes the transition from the USA to China will be painful for the USA; and the USA trade wars against both China and the EU is having a negative impact on world trade. Certainly, in the past e.g. the Wall Street Crash in the 1930’s and the ‘American Financial Crash’ in 2008 did adversely affect the world, but since the 2009 world recession, both the EU and the UK have built resilience into their economic and financial institutions to protect against future economic failures in the USA; which have been put to the test during the pandemic this year, and have held up exceedingly well. So consequently, any economic failure in the USA in the future will not have the same level of negative impact across Europe now that it would have done in the past.
From a European perspective, it doesn’t matter who we trade with, as long as we trade. From an American perspective, it does matter if they lose out on world trade.
Currently (2018 data):-
• UK exports £30.7 billion ($40 billion) to China
• UK imports £49 ($64 billion) from China.
China accounts for 4.4% of UK exports and 6.8% of UK imports.
• UK exports $140.4 billion to the USA.
• UK imports $121.5 billion from the USA.
USA accounts for 15% of UK exports and about 12% of UK imports.
• USA exports to the UK account for 4% of overall USA exports.
• USA imports from the UK account for 2.4% of overall USA imports.
Currently, 50% of UK Trade is with the EU.
Currently, the three biggest economies in the world, in descending order of size are:-
#1: USA
#2: EU
#3: China
Yes, China has become a world leader in R&D in the last ten years, along with the EU in a number of areas; but the USA does seem to have lost its way in recent years! Silicon Valley was a major coop for the USA in the 1990’s. But the USA has missed a big opportunity with ‘Renewable Energy’ by focusing on fossil fuels rather than investing in R&D in this new technology; while both China and the EU are now reaping the economic benefits of the investments they’ve put into Research and Development of Renewable Energy Technologies.
The USA maybe the #1 military and economic power; but on the military front, while you may fear China’s military, the Russian military is always a constant threat to Europe. In that respect, the EU doesn’t yet have an Army because ever since its proposal back in 2012 the UK has always used its veto to prevent the EU from having an Army. However, now that the UK is leaving the EU, an EU Army is back on the Agenda; put back on the table by Emmanuel Macron (French President) last year.
The reason the UK used its veto to stop the EU from having its own Army is because the UK wanted NATO (the USA) to continue defending Europe against Russia, rather than Europe being able to defend itself against Russia, with NATO as a backup.
The UK may (these days) be a ‘supporting actor’ on the world stage; but in Europe, Russia is NOT; in Europe Russia is a major and constant military threat.Well it is true that I see things from a US perspective and you from a UK/EU perspective.
Your biases and views are driven by what information you can gather from the sources you have and use, which will be different from my own.
" since the 2009 world recession, both the EU and the UK have built resilience into their economic and financial institutions to protect against future economic failures in the USA"
I think there was less of a building a resistance to America involved in 2008 post reactions, it was simply that China is now the oncoming economic Super Power and America is the fading one.
While that trend was being resisted by the Trump Administration, such efforts were not supported by Congress or the American Media, so Trump's efforts to adjust trade agreements and counter China's efforts at global domination have been muted and countered by the very bodies within America that should be supporting and promoting those efforts.
Similar to the resistance within the UK to Brexit, a large percentage of the population wanted it, despite overwhelming MSM and political efforts to convince the populace that Brexit was a bad thing.
Trump's efforts to strengthen America's economy while at the same time reversing its military footprint on the globe has been met with consistent and extreme resistance.Your comment: “Your biases and views are driven by what information you can gather from the sources you have and use, which will be different from my own.” Does come across as a bit condescending, although I’m sure it was not intended that way e.g. your comment gives no credit for my own personal experiences and personal knowledge from living here in the UK/Europe.
With regards to your 2nd & 3rd paragraph; you are dismissing and trivializing a factor, without even bothering to check the details, because it doesn’t sit well with your perceptions. The full policy making process by the UK Government, and similar policies made independently by the EU, is too complex a subject for this forum; but as an example, I shall focus on one aspect of it and summarise in as simplistic terms as I can:-
Following the financial crash of 2009, which forced the British Government in financially bailing out most British banks, to prevent them from going bankrupt, from 2010 the UK Conservative Government started to formulate a series of policies to mitigate against such events in the future.
To put it into simple terms, part of that mitigation was to split the British Banks Business Operations into different zones e.g. ‘high risk’, ‘low risk’, ‘Domestic’ and ‘Business’ etc., and to ‘Ring Fence’ Core Operations.
In simple terms, the practical outcome is that if a Banks ‘high risk’ section of its business collapses, the Bank can NOT draw upon funds (money) from its ‘core operations’ e.g. Domestic Accounts to bail itself out, because those core operations are ‘ring fenced’ e.g. as if they were a separate business.
It’s a lot more complex than I’ve explained, but ‘Ring Fencing’ is a tool that I’ve familiar with from my days in the civil service, and the British Government has also used ‘Ring Fencing’ in a number of other core areas in the British Economy, including the NHS & State Pensions e.g. even in the event of a deep recession in the UK, the NHS & State Pensions are secure by law, so that even a British Government can’t dip into the spending funds (budget) on the NHS or State Pensions to bail the economy out; in other words they are protected against Government cuts.
I’ve only scratched the surface, in my explanation, but even so, the UK’s current resilience against the failing economy in the USA due to the pandemic is real; and has nothing to do with China.
As regards your paragraph 5: You’ve chosen to ignore Trump’s Trade War with the EU, of which (as a European) I have been at the blunt end of; and which has nothing to do with China, other than the fact that Trump doesn’t like the USA being a net importer of goods and services from the EU, no more than he likes the USA being a net importer of goods and services from China e.g. a Nationalistic view rather than a Globalist view. Plus, from what I can see, your arguments in paragraph 5 are more about American politics than Global Trade e.g. Nationalism vs Globalism.
Your penultimate paragraph shows you ignorance (lack of understanding) of the Brexit issue; quite understandably, as you are American and not British.
FYI the majority of the British people did not, nor does not, want Brexit. Yes, a slim majority voted in favour of Brexit in the 2016 Referendum, many duped into voting for it by lies, deceit and propaganda. But within a year of that Referendum, and to this day, both opinion polls and elections have consistently demonstrated that Brexit is not the wishes of the majority; which is why (in spite efforts by Parliament) the Government (Boris) resisted calling a 2nd Referendum, because Boris knew that he would lose.
If you cite the fact that Boris (Conservative Government) won the General Election in November 2019 on a Brexit ticket as proof that the majority of the public want Brexit, then you are ignorant of the short comings of the ‘First Past the Post’ system in the UK.
In the 2019 General Election Boris (Pro Brexit Government) won 56.2% of the seats with just 43.6% of the votes. The other political parties who are pro Brexit accounts for a further 0.8% of the votes; and all of the opposition parties, who are pro-European, and stood on a pro European ticket, won 55.6% of the vote in the General Election.
So don’t tell me that the majority of the British people want Brexit.
Your last paragraph is ‘Politics’, the Democrats will have a different view on what ‘strengthening the American economy’ means, just as the Democrats will have a different view on the role the American Military should play on the world stage; that’s politics. We have similar political debates in the UK e.g. conservatism (capitalism) vs Socialism vs Liberalism, plus the Greens (Environmental issues) etc. And in the UK, regardless to one’s politics, things are never ‘black and white’ e.g. more often than not there isn’t a ‘right or wrong’; it’s just different political views.
I suspect that in the USA, under normal circumstances, it’s not that much different. Except with Trump, he is a menace to the world; certainly in the view of the vast majority of the British People.Your comment: “Your biases and views are driven by what information you can gather from the sources you have and use, which will be different from my own.” Does come across as a bit condescending, although I’m sure it was not intended that way e.g. your comment gives no credit for my own personal experiences and personal knowledge from living here in the UK/Europe.
With regards to your 2nd & 3rd paragraph; you are dismissing and trivializing a factor, without even bothering to check the details, because it doesn’t sit well with your perceptions. The full policy making process by the UK Government, and similar policies made independently by the EU, is too complex a subject for this forum; but as an example, I shall focus on one aspect of it and summarise in as simplistic terms as I can:-
Following the financial crash of 2009, which forced the British Government in financially bailing out most British banks, to prevent them from going bankrupt, from 2010 the UK Conservative Government started to formulate a series of policies to mitigate against such events in the future.
To put it into simple terms, part of that mitigation was to split the British Banks Business Operations into different zones e.g. ‘high risk’, ‘low risk’, ‘Domestic’ and ‘Business’ etc., and to ‘Ring Fence’ Core Operations.
In simple terms, the practical outcome is that if a Banks ‘high risk’ section of its business collapses, the Bank can NOT draw upon funds (money) from its ‘core operations’ e.g. Domestic Accounts to bail itself out, because those core operations are ‘ring fenced’ e.g. as if they were a separate business.
It’s a lot more complex than I’ve explained, but ‘Ring Fencing’ is a tool that I’ve familiar with from my days in the civil service, and the British Government has also used ‘Ring Fencing’ in a number of other core areas in the British Economy, including the NHS & State Pensions e.g. even in the event of a deep recession in the UK, the NHS & State Pensions are secure by law, so that even a British Government can’t dip into the spending funds (budget) on the NHS or State Pensions to bail the economy out; in other words they are protected against Government cuts.
I’ve only scratched the surface, in my explanation, but even so, the UK’s current resilience against the failing economy in the USA due to the pandemic is real; and has nothing to do with China.
As regards your paragraph 5: You’ve chosen to ignore Trump’s Trade War with the EU, of which (as a European) I have been at the blunt end of; and which has nothing to do with China, other than the fact that Trump doesn’t like the USA being a net importer of goods and services from the EU, no more than he likes the USA being a net importer of goods and services from China e.g. a Nationalistic view rather than a Globalist view. Plus, from what I can see, your arguments in paragraph 5 are more about American politics than Global Trade e.g. Nationalism vs Globalism.
Your penultimate paragraph shows you ignorance (lack of understanding) of the Brexit issue; quite understandably, as you are American and not British.
FYI the majority of the British people did not, nor does not, want Brexit. Yes, a slim majority voted in favour of Brexit in the 2016 Referendum, many duped into voting for it by lies, deceit and propaganda. But within a year of that Referendum, and to this day, both opinion polls and elections have consistently demonstrated that Brexit is not the wishes of the majority; which is why (in spite efforts by Parliament) the Government (Boris) resisted calling a 2nd Referendum, because Boris knew that he would lose.
If you cite the fact that Boris (Conservative Government) won the General Election in November 2019 on a Brexit ticket as proof that the majority of the public want Brexit, then you are ignorant of the short comings of the ‘First Past the Post’ system in the UK.
In the 2019 General Election Boris (Pro Brexit Government) won 56.2% of the seats with just 43.6% of the votes. The other political parties who are pro Brexit accounts for a further 0.8% of the votes; and all of the opposition parties, who are pro-European, and stood on a pro European ticket, won 55.6% of the vote in the General Election.
So don’t tell me that the majority of the British people want Brexit.
Your last paragraph is ‘Politics’, the Democrats will have a different view on what ‘strengthening the American economy’ means, just as the Democrats will have a different view on the role the American Military should play on the world stage; that’s politics. We have similar political debates in the UK e.g. conservatism (capitalism) vs Socialism vs Liberalism, plus the Greens (Environmental issues) etc. And in the UK, regardless to one’s politics, things are never ‘black and white’ e.g. more often than not there isn’t a ‘right or wrong’; it’s just different political views.
I suspect that in the USA, under normal circumstances, it’s not that much different. Except with Trump, he is a menace to the world; certainly in the view of the vast majority of the British People.
Yep Sharlee, the UK was the hardest hit country in Europe by the pandemic; because the UK Government delayed shutting down the economy by 10 days, by which time the virus had rapidly spread throughout the UK. It’s the same mistake Italy, Spain and the USA made, with the same tragic result e.g. high death tolls.
The big difference is that the pandemic peaked in the UK on the 14th April with 943 deaths (7 day rolling average), and since the 14th April deaths have steady decreased week by week, and is still falling (currently averaging at 64 deaths per day).
Whereas deaths first peaked in the USA on the 21st April with 2,256 deaths (7 day rolling average), declined to a daily average of 520 deaths on the 5th July and is now heading for a 2nd peak (currently 1,100 deaths a day, and still rising); the USA being the ONLY major economy country in the world to be experiencing a 2nd peak.
That is the big difference; the UK has avoided a 2nd peak and now has the pandemic under control. Whereas the USA has not; so at the current rate of increase of the death rate in the USA, the total number of deaths in the USA from Covid-19 will pass the 230,595 mark (which you mentioned) before November.
The surges in infections in the UK and across Europe are in a different league to the pandemic in the USA. For example, the so called “2nd Wave” in Spain is no more than a ‘Flare up’ in Catalonia and Aragón Regions of Spain, similar to the flare-ups in Leicester and to a lesser extent Blackburn with Darwen and Oldham in England.
Boris put Leicester under ‘Local Lockdown’ and ‘Isolated’ it from the rest of the UK at the beginning of July because the ‘R’ Rate (Rate of Infection) briefly went above ‘1’. To put it into perspective, we are NOT talking about numbers on the scale being experienced in the USA. In Europe, the flare-ups in places of concern like Catalonia and Aragón Regions of Spain, and the city of Leicester, England, are small compared to the tens of thousands of new daily infections in the USA.
For example, in Catalonia, Spain, with a population of 7.5 million, they are currently recording around 1,000 new Covid-19 cases per day. Spain with a population of 47 million, as a whole, are recording 2,000 new Covid-19 cases a day for the whole country e.g. half of all new cases in Spain are confined to Catalonia (hot spot). Compare this to the USA with a population of 328 million (7 times the size of Spain), yet with over 66,000 new Covid-19 cases daily in the USA; 66,000 new cases a day in the USA is a LOT MORE than just 2,000 new cases a day in Spain.
The UK, with a population of 66 million (a 5th of the size of the USA) is currently recording an average of about 700 New Cases daily (for the whole of the UK), which has remained unchanged for the past month, in spite of the fact that on the 4th July UK largely re-opened its economy.
The City of Leicester (population of over 300,000) was put into lockdown by Boris at the beginning of July because 220 people had become infected in that city. 3.5 million people in parts of Northern England were put under tight ‘Social’ Restrictions yesterday because the rate of infection (‘R’ value) has risen to 1.1, even though the number of infected people in northern England is tiny compared to the number of infected people in most States across the USA.
The point is, whenever there is a flare-up in Europe (including the UK), however SMALL, the European Governments acts swiftly and hard to quell that flare-up; what Boris (British Prime Minister) calls the “Whack-a-Mole” Policy. Yet, the USA over 66,000 infections are being recorded, and very little is being done to stop the spread of the virus in the USA.
With regards to your last paragraph: I don’t pay much heed to highlights in the news media because the message can so easily be taken out of context; political spin etc. However, FYI; on the rare occasions that Trump speaks to the nation (Americans) about the pandemic I do watch the full Press Conference live; and the bullet points I made above are factual to what I’ve seen Trump say and what he’s tweeted (his own words).
For example:-
• It is fact that he has politicised mask wearing,
• Its fact that Trump encouraged his supporters not to sociality distance at his rally in Tulsa on the 20th June.
• It is fact that Trump promotes the use of hydroxychloroquine.
• It is fact that Trump suggested taking disinfectant internally.
• It is fact that Trump is more interested in opening up the economy rather than saving lives.
• It is fact that Trump is not keen on mass testing.
• It is fact that Trump is divisive." It is a fact that Trump suggested taking disinfectants internally."
Trump was posing questions to the physician that was on the sidelines and did not in any way suggest a method to ingest a disinfectant. He was pointing out a fact that the virus is killed by disinfectants and that if something could be developed to get a disinfectant to hit the virus in the body. Remdesvir the drug that is now being used to treat COVID patients is being studied in an inhalant form. So, the idea of producing a medication that could enter the lung was not so ridiculous.
"Gilead starts Phase I trial of inhaled version of Covid-19 drug remdesivir
The study is enrolling 60 healthy volunteers aged 18-45, but the company hopes it will form the basis of trials of the drug as an outpatient treatment for patients who do not require hospitalization. Remdesivir is currently administered via IV."
https://medcitynews.com/2020/07/gilead- … ivir/?rf=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w&t=58sAbout Trump: the simple fact that information or misinformation on medication and medical treatment is staged in the political theatre of WH press conferences is already telling.
No other political leader on this planet (except Bolsonaro) does layman assertions in public on something, he/she doesn´t have any idea of.
Stick to this guy and keep this kind of layman leadership. This is why Trump is loved by Russia and China. He is so easy to manipulate, almost like a child.
And children play with children of same age and same stage of mental development. Reflects on his whole administration.
If some grown up persons get involved, the children get yealous (replace grown up persons with Dr. Fauci).
If a student is good in athletics and is member of the varsity club, this does not mean he is mature and fit for life (Replace athletics with Real Estate business - and fit for life with fit for political leadership).
I really don´t know what is the better election result for people in Europe. On one side a president in office with poor management record and questionable mental condition and on the other side a candidate with questionable corruption record and also questionable mental condition. How far has the US deteriorated be limited to this kind of choice? The people have deserved much better - and by the way, the world also.
Within a few months China´s GDP will pass the US GDP. Everything the administration is doing is hurting the American people, economy. It is also hurting other parts of the world but far less.
The fact that we discuss so much about the US pandemic situation is also telling. With reminiscence to the book and movie: "All quiet on the European (western) front".I can understand your dislike for Trump, he deeply insulted your leader pointing out that Germany does not choose to pay its commitments. And not sure why anyone at this point would hold on to any concept that Trump loves China and Russia. He has China on the ropes due to the partial trade deal he was negotiated, and Russia no president has put as many sanctions on Russia. That just a fact.
The US has done nothing but grow under Trump. For once our economy broke records in job growth. Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States has become the world’s number one producer of oil and maintained our position as the number one producer of natural gas.
American energy exports reached an all-time high last year, marking the first time in 67 years that our annual gross energy exports exceeded our gross energy imports.
Our military has been restored, our boarders secured to cut down on illegal activity that has been going on for decades.
We can only wait to see how our economy fares due to the pandemic. And many Ameican's depend on the stock market, which has treated us very well under Trump. Many Americans are not interested in being globalist any longer. Just hope to bring our jobs back, and keep our earnings hear in America.
Can only speak for me, but I have been very satisfied with Trump's job performance, his demeanor I don't care for. But, I don't really care about what other countries think my president. And I can well see how his policies would disturb many leaders. he is just not a politician, won't play the game, and has rocked their worlds.Actually Sharlee, Trump also frequently insulted our female Leader (when Theresa May was the UK’s Prime Minters); Trump’s attitude against women are well known.
Chris didn’t say that Trump loves China and Russia, he quite rightly pointed out that Russia loves Trump.
Trumps Sanctions on Russia doesn’t hurt Russia; they are not like the Sanctions Trump has on Iran.
The Sanctions Trump has on Russia are:-
1. Restrictions imposed on 690 Russian citizens (sanctions against designated Russian government officials) in protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
2. Restrictions imposed on 99 Russian citizens (sanctions against designated Russian government officials etc.) who have been identified in being involved with “Malicious Cyber Activities).
3. Restrictions imposed on 55 Russian citizens (sanctions against designated Russian government officials etc.) on Human Rights Abuse and Corruption in relation to the Sergei Magnitsky Act, and 9 others for other Human Right infringements.
4. Prohibition on export of many controlled goods and services to Russia, and currency exchange in response to Russia’s Chemical Weapon Attack in the UK in 2018.
5. USA Companies prohibited from signing defence contracts with Russia.
6. In 2018, Trump imposed financial sanctions against three Russian Banks for their support of the Syrian government.
7. In 2019, Trump imposed financial sanctions against a Russian bank for operating in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy.
8. In 2019 Trump imposes sanctions on any individual Russian citizen involved in the supply of gas from Russia to the EU via the Russian Nord 2 gas pipeline (being built from Russia to Germany).
As you can see from the list of American Sanctions on Russia (listed above), unlike Trump’s Trade war with China and Trump’s Trade war with the EU, Trump’s sanctions on Russia isn’t generally against Trade, it’s against Individuals; and therefore has little real impact on Russia.
However, the last point (point 8 above) is fowl play e.g. America trying to prevent Russia exporting its gas to the EU so that the EU is forced to buy its gas from the USA instead.
As regards Trump’s relationship with Putin, he’s praised Putin many a time, while at the same time making derogatory remarks in his tweets about the EU and EU Leaders, and derating Theresa May (British Prime Minister 2016-2019) on numerous occasions in his tweets....Trump, he deeply insulted your leader pointing out that Germany does not choose to pay its commitments...
Of course, doing political talks with insults imho is not what you should do. But may be my compass on diplomacy is wrong, may that is the new way of making friends. Forgot: The US doesn´t need friends.
The 2% defense spending issue: Some background:
Almost 20 years ago i was asked to join the CDU (conservative party in G.). At that time a lot was going on in Afghanistan and the credo of the party was: "German interest must be defended in the Hindu Kush". I turned down the proposal. G. military has nothing to do anywhere on this planet.
Having said this, G. has significant industrial firepower, but it is not used for war toys. The US industry in return is very much depending on production and sale of war material. So the 2% demand is simply to promote weapon sale for the US industry. Again this child in office is easy to disguise. As Arthur would put it: Another foul play.
More than 40 years ago i lived in Michigan. Most people i knew were working in the car industry (Bay City, Saginaw, Flint, some in Pontiac). I once was invited to visit the GM plant in Bay City. They manufactured carburators. Who needs carburators today? That was the steam engine of the 80ties. The plant is long closed.
If the current US administration promotes coal, intensified exploitation of natural resources, this is steam engine thinking, sticking to old industries and structures. Will possibly give you a good feeling for a short period of time, but on the long run this will only hurt.
...not interested in being globalist...
The US better be global, at least from the trading point of view. In today´s economic world you need 15% of your GDP in manufacturing to maintain
status quo. The US has 10%, means they need a trade deficit on products of some 5%. Now - if the US thinks, they can manufacture everything on their own, getting rid of the trade deficit and supposedly bringing back jobs, this will lead to an adjustment of the GDP to meet the 15% rule. Simple arithmetic. The US will need to decrease the GDP by some 30%. (actually that is what the pandemic already triggered). If the US isolates, this pandemic induced reduction will be permanent. Not a good idea, for nobody.
A last one on economic growth:
The US has high income inequality (Gini index at some 40%). You can certainly rejoice, if you belong to the top 5% of the income pyramid. Everyone else only lost in the recent years and decades. Not Trumps fault, but he accelerated this development.
How vulnerable the whole social structure is can be seen in this pandemic. People not going to the doctors, no health insurance, poverty makes people sick and easy prey for the virus.Chris is right when he says:-
“If the current US administration promotes coal, intensified exploitation of natural resources, this is steam engine thinking, sticking to old industries and structures. Will possibly give you a good feeling for a short period of time, but on the long run this will only hurt.”
While the USA has stayed stuck in the ‘dark ages’ (polluting the planet with fossil fuels) most countries across the world, including Europe and China, have been investing in the future; Research and Development into Renewable Energy Technologies. A mist opportunity for the USA in investments and jobs e.g. China has become a world leader in solar panel technology, Britain has become a world leader in off-shore wind power technology; Scotland has become a world leader in Research in wave and tidal power technologies. In fact many European counties, including Germany, Denmark and Norway are all now benefitting from wealth creation and job creation in Renewable Energy Technologies; and the USA is being left behind.
Aberdeen, Scotland's Hydrogen Strategy (Green, Clean Energy) - Leading the UK in H2: https://youtu.be/XBJAM1epr5cThe US uses little coal, we do have a small coal industry. In regards to using wind power.
China. China has an installed capacity of 221 GW and is the leader in wind energy, with over a third of the world's capacity. ...
United States. The US comes second with 96.4 GW of installed capacity.
2. United States
The US comes second with 96.4 GW of installed capacity. The country has six of the 10 largest onshore wind farms. These include the Alta Wind Energy Centre in California, the world’s second-largest onshore wind farm with a capacity of 1,548 MW.
Actually, the US American company, GE Wind, is the largest wind turbine manufacturer in the United States in terms of installation capacity at around 3,011 megawatts in 2018. With a total capacity of approximately 2,886 megawatts, the Danish manufacturer, Vestas, ranked second in that year.
Germany. ...
India. ...
Spain. ...
United Kingdom. ...
France. ...
Brazil.https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/worlds-top-10-countries-in-wind-energy-capacity/68465090
Solar power, the US once again at the top of the list for utilizing solar power. The US comes in third below China and Japan. Under Trump, we have come up on the list... https://news.energysage.com/where-is-solar-energy-used/
I have not the time to investigate who is ahead in Research and Development into Renewable Energy Technologies. However, the stats I have provides the fact's on what country utilizes renewable energy such as wind and solar power.
I might ask why is the EU, and other countries not higher on the list for actually using Solar and wind power?Shouldn´t we stick to pandemic response?
Sharlee, please don´t argue about windpower. You are way off in this topic. The US is far behind.
Firstly, electricity consumption is almost double per capita than the EU, at least G., that i can speak for.
Secondly: Installed windpower production capacity in relation to electricity consumption is roughly only 25% of Germany.
Thirdly: At least in Germany we have a huge surplus of electricity production during the daytime. There simply is little need to increase capacity on a large scale. The idea that the US is almost leading in adding windpower capacity only explains that the US is 10 to 15 years behind peer countries and tries to do a little catching up to get out of the "steam engine age".
I have much passion for the people in the US, you are friendly, open minded, generous. But then it strikes me every time how far off your assertions are on where to position the US in the world for certain topics. Just think about the pandemic response, the state of the US health care system.
Forget renewables, that is a looser topic, at least with current administration.
With full respect
ChrisYes, I would prefer to stay on topic. although it was not I but Nathanville that pursued a new subject. I was responding to this comment ---
"If the current US administration promotes coal, intensified exploitation of natural resources, this is steam engine thinking, sticking to old industries and structures. Will possibly give you a good feeling for a short period of time, but in the long run this will only hurt.”
"While the USA has stayed stuck in the ‘dark ages’ (polluting the planet with fossil fuels) most countries across the world, including Europe and China, have been investing in the future; Research and Development into Renewable Energy Technologies. "
In regards to windpower, The US comes second with 96.4 GW of installed capacity. The country has six of the 10 largest onshore wind farms in the world... I have added the reference to where I came about my information on the US being the number two users of wind power. My previous comment offers a reference in regard to US uses of solar power. I do realize the US imports its panels from Asia, but we certainly are utilizing solar power here in the US coming in at third country that uses the most solar power, and usages of wind power we come in second to other nations.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes … y/68465090
Do you feel the references are off in regard to the stats it offers? The increase in usage of wind and solar power happened under President Trump. That's just a fact. We have never realized such clean air. The US currently has one of the lowest death rates attributed to air pollution.
https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/ … ricity-useSharlee, the numbers you mention are only reflecting of what i wrote: You have to look at comparable and relative numbers for energy consumption and power generation. The US consumes roughly 8 times as much electricity as G. does. But the Wind Power capacity is only double US over G. To me that is 2/8 = 25%. If i take figures from your reference, may be even a little less.
We could discuss pollution. Not really worth while. Just squeeze information out of this website: https://www.iea.org/countries
In this site i took a closer look at where G. was with said 25% wind renewables compared to most recent figures: 2007 (more than 11 years ago).
It is always necessary to work with normalized numbers. So back to the pandemic: What does it help if the US tests 500-800.000 per day if you have a potential spreader community of 2 million plus active cases? That is 1/4 test per active case and day. Italy and Germany are each testing some 50.000 per day, but we only have some 10.000 active cases respectively. That is 5 tests per active case. And now we go relative :-) in Europe we have 20 times more testing per potential spreader than in the US. This is the real difference and the real issue for having no control over the virus in the US. Not to mention the analysis time lag. I hope that gets better.
Sharlee/Chris, yes it’s me that went off target (in response to comments made by all). And Sharlee, your response is very admirable; it’s good to hear an American speak positively about Renewable Energy, and refreshing to hear an American not berate China.
The figures you quote for USA on-shore wind farms are admirable, but to put it into perspective you need to take the size of the nations into account e.g. China’s population 1.4 billion, USA population 328 million, and UK population 66 million etc. China, with such a huge population installs on average 2 wind turbines an hour; the UK with such a small population (even in comparison with the USA) installs on average 1 new wind turbine a day. How many wind turbines is the USA installing each day?
The most important factor isn’t how many wind turbines etc., a country has installed, but the percentage of their total energy that comes from Renewable Energy, and the rate at which that percentage is increasing.
Also, Research & Development is important to a country because that’s eventually equates to jobs and wealth for a nation in respect to generated ‘Exports’; think of the success of the USA during the 3rd Industrial Revolution in the 1990’s e.g. Silicon Valley California, USA.
To put the figures you quote into perspective:-
USA Energy Mix in 2016:- Fossil fuels made up 81% of the United States' total energy consumption in 2016. (Source EIA)
USA Energy Mix in 2019:- Fossil fuels made up 80% of the United States' total energy consumption in 2019. (Source EIA)
In 2019 only 11% of the USA Energy was from Renewable Energy, 80% came from fossil fuels, as follows:-
• 37% from Oil
• 32% from Gas
• 11% from coal
In contrast, in the UK in 2019 36.9% of our energy came from Renewables, and only 45.7% came from fossil fuels, as follows:-
• 40.9% from Gas
• 2.7% from Oil
• 2.1% from Coal
FYI: Separate from, but complementary to, the Paris Agreement signed by 196 counties in 2016 (including the USA) is the EU Directive of 2009.
The EU Directive of 2009 set out an ambitious target for the EU’s energy to come from Renewable Energy as follows:-
• 20% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2020.
• 30% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2030, and
• 80% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2050.
The first target was met and exceeded by most EU countries by 2017, so the EU’s Directive was revised as follows:-
• 30% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2020.
• 50% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2030, and
• 100% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2050.
In contrast, although the Paris Agreement is less stringent than the EU Directive, the USA withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017 because even now only 11% of the USA’s energy comes from Renewable; far below their targets set in the Paris Agreement.
When Trump came to power he described ‘Climate Change’ as a ‘Chinese Hoax’, and vowed to support the coal mining industry.
Britain goes 2 months without burning coal for power (2020): https://youtu.be/pM9nQoRqpMU
Below: UK Energy Mix
Thank you for the pertinent information. It further clarifies the subject.
I don’t think you should call biomass renewable energy as it’s impossible to grow wood as fast as it is burnt up. Biomass is a fake green energy source.
That is a valid point peterstreep, where the biomass is wood that’s not waste, and isn’t from a renewable source.
Certainly in the USA, looking at the above chart, 20% of their 11% Renewable Energy is from wood biomass; and I don’t know how strict their Regulations are, and therefore how much of that wood is genuinely from Renewable Sources?
In the UK 8.5% of our ‘total’ energy source comes from ‘biomass & waste’; very little of which is actually wood, the vast bulk is sewage and ‘domestic kitchen waste’.
The UK Regulations these days on the purchase of wood are very tight; to the point that ‘all’ wood now sold in the UK has to be ‘Certified’ as coming from a ‘reliable’ ‘renewable source’, as recognised by the UK Government; which means that in the UK oak has in recent years become a scarce and expensive wood.
The main UK supplier of wood is the ‘Forestry Commission’; the Forestry Commission is a UK ‘Independent’ Government Department e.g. answerable to Parliament, but not the Government.
The Forestry Commission grows wood sustainably in Britain e.g. for every tree they cut down for commercial use, they plant three new trees to replace it. So consequently, back in 1919, when the Forestry Commission was established, only 5% of the UK was forest; but today, thanks to the efforts of the Forestry Commission 12.9% of the UK is now forest.
The Forestry Commission doesn’t certify its own wood as being from a Renewable Source, that is done by the UK Woodland Assurance Standard (UKWAS) as an independent assessment and auditor, and on the strength of UKWAS UK wood is then certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and the ‘Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification’(PEFC).
Back to the biomass in the UK, which now makes up 8.5% of our total energy, most of that biomass energy in the UK is generated from sewage and ‘domestic kitchen waste’, and demonstrated in the videos below:-
Sewage waste in Bristol used to make green gas: https://youtu.be/PUpvAfWI_GA
Bristol biomethane gas (made from sewage and kitchen food waste) powers Bristol buses: https://youtu.be/QV4VEprPfos
Similar schemes, to those in Bristol (above), are now common throughout the UK.As far as i know, renewable energy including biomass is per definition "renewable". Hard biomass = wood regrows, is not depleted and thus renewable.
In G. some 80% of biomass electricity is from biogas, the rest is wood and to a retreating fraction rapeseed oil, liquid biomass. Most electricity from wood is produced in local powerplants that combine heating and electricity generation.
I add a chart on the weekly generation of electricity in G. You can easily identify the daytime peaks of solar energy and the windy period in the first half of the week.
Biomass generation is very steady, due to the nature of biogas production. Same with baseload nuclear power (the rest of what we have).
Currently not a good situation with way too much electricity available during the daytime and no real storage capacity (blue). The future will be to create storage.
The problem with biomass is that a tree does not grow as quickly as it is burnt. Sounds simple but that's the bottom of it. Biomass is not a clean solution.
After seeing the documentary by Michael Moore: Planet of the Humans. I started to rethink about Biomass, as I thought it was green energy too. But it is not.
Planet of the Humans
Sewage waste in Bristol used to make green gas:....
It almost broke my heart to see the ignorance of the tv presenter. Frying bacon on biomass... Not understanding that the meat industry is one of the biggest climate change problems. Talking about methane production...
Ignorance kills...The meat industry is why we are burning down rainforests across the globe at impossible rates, for viable grazing land.
The meat industry is why bacteria is becoming immune to antibiotics, 80% of the world's antibiotics is used by the meat industry.
The billions of animals raised for slaughter in industrialized meat efforts do more harm to the atmosphere than all the world's automobiles combined.
The antibiotics, pesticides, preservatives, etc. found in our meats (especially those served by fast food restaurants) have more to do with Heart Disease, weight gain, and the general declining health of Americans than any other single factor in America.
