How Well/Badly Do You Think Your Government is Handling Covid Crisis?
South Korea is on the ball, and has been right from the start, and has done a good job at containing the pandemic with minimal economic damage (relative to the rest of the world).
Many European countries have taken a tough approach and most, now that they have the ‘R’ rate under control, are slowly and cautiously easing those restrictions.
The impression of the USA, from across the pond, is one of chaos?
Here in the UK, I and the majority of the General Public felt that our Government was too slow in imposing the lockdown (dithered for 10 days). However, since the lockdown the vast majority of the British Public and all political parties (regardless to politics) have given our Government their full backing and support.
Now, just over six weeks into lockdown, the latest opinion polls show that 90% of the British Public supports the Government’s continued lockdown policy, with 25% believing the Government should be even tougher with the lockdown e.g. like Italy and Spain.
However, the ‘R’ rate (rate of infection) is now just below ‘1’ (0.9), and today Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, in his speech to the Nation (LINK to Speech Below): Has laid out his plans for the coming weeks and months, as to how the Government proposes to slowly ease the lockdown and cautiously move towards re-opening the economy; subject to strict conditions, based on scientific evidence.
In Full (13 minutes): UK Prime Minister Announces New COVID-19 Lockdown Rules to the Nation https://youtu.be/Rrbj2lHf70M
So how well do you think you’re Government is doing?Overall, I'm satisfied. There WILL be instances where it could have been done better, and I cannot speak for other states, but I'm satisfied with what my state is doing.
Which brings up another point; the president of the US does not have to authority or power to do that you seem to think he does. And, given the protests, I'm not sure that states do either - while they may have the legal authority, no state can endure without agreement from the populace. Unless, of course, military force is used and even then it is questionable.Thanks wilderness for your views. I understand the ‘balance of power’ is with the States rather than the Federal Government. That seems to be the situation across the world e.g. in Germany and Australia the States have the ultimate power, as do the three Celtic Nations in the UK.
In Germany Angela Merkel has been able to get the different States to work together for the sake of unity. In Australia (where my cousins live) the different States are acting independently; albeit they have tight border controls between the different States.
Although in the UK the three Celtic Nations have the final say, so far all three Celtic Nations (two Socialist Governments and one hard-right wing Government) have given Boris Johnson their full backing and support. However, as from yesterday, although the Celtic Nations still support Boris Johnson’s ‘Action Plan’ in principle (for the sake of unity), they made in clear in their ‘Addresses to their Nations’ yesterday that they will implement his Plan to relax the lockdown at a slower pace than for England, if they feel the timing isn’t right for their ‘nation’.
Although Trump may not have the Authority, what he does and say does nevertheless have an impact. From across the pond he does appear to be giving bad messages and ‘showing a bad example’ all too often; which would seem to undermine the efforts of any State wishing to take a more cautious approach! Just one (minor) example: His refusal to where a mask, and making a point of it, certainly does seem to be ‘sending the wrong message’ to the American people.
I agree: No State (or country) can endure without the agreement (support) from the populace. Most Governments around the world do seem to have the full support of their citizens in imposing harsh lockdown policies e.g. 90% support in the UK, with 25% thinking Boris should be even tougher with the lockdown. Although there are some exceptions around the world where citizens are less supportive of the lockdown and or ‘Social Distancing’, such as the USA e.g. the mass protests across America.
In the UK the Government does have the support of its citizens. And I’m also really impressed with the resolve of the Italians and Spanish people; they’ve been in lockdown far longer than the UK and USA and their lockdown have been a lot tighter (tougher) than the UK & USA; yet their citizens have supported their Government’s tough approach, and they remain in good spirit.
Yes, I can’t imagine military force being used in the USA; but many countries across Europe, including the UK, are effectively in a ‘Police State’ e.g. up until now, more than two people in public together in Britain would have been challenged by the police and potentially fined ($75 for a first offence); in Italy the fine for breaching the lockdown laws is $3,250.
Italian Police Clamp Down as Deaths Rise: https://youtu.be/rkeqcAuGP9oYou know, I think there is a large difference in philosophy between Americans and the people of most other developed nations.
It was only two generations ago when my grandmother made the trek across our Old West as a small child, where they settled in a small valley, coincidentally about 80 miles from where I now live. They were the only family there - the only other resident was a "mountain man" they rarely saw.
She grew up with no law, no health care, no fire dept., no grocery store, no safety net if something went wrong. They were on their own for every facet of their lives until a small settlement eventually grew up not far away. When g'grandpa's horses were stolen it was up to him to get them back - not the police. When he needed irrigation water it was up to him to hand dig miles of canal, without a single person telling him where he could or could not dig. It was up to the family to provide food and firewood (they were in snow country) for the winter, when nothing grew and game mostly left.
And the philosophy is still very much alive in a great many Americans, passed down from parents and grandparents. They neither need nor want a government in every facet of their lives, telling them what to do and providing for them. This is reflected in the protests here; "government does NOT know best and government shall NOT determine how I live". Good or bad, it makes for a population that is very difficult to govern, doubly so when governing means changing their very life to one of quarantine without visible cause.
But Europeans...Europeans have lived for centuries with a government yoke around their neck. They are used to it, they value it and they want a government to care for them, provide for them, make their decisions for them. It is a different philosophy that I don't really think other nations understand or appreciate when it comes to Americans. It is too foreign to them, far too long since the time their ancestors lived that way.Yep, I think you are spot on wilderness.
And not just centuries, but millennia: In England, from 1066 until 1574 if you were not a Lord or a Knight but nevertheless a person of means e.g. a craftsman or trader etc. then you were a ‘Burgess’ (an inhabitant of a town or borough with full rights of citizenship). If on the other hand you had no means and were the subject of the Lord of the Manor then you were a ‘peasant’, and as such the property and responsibility of the Land Lord. Albeit that system of rule began to slowly disintegrate following the ‘Peasant Revolt of 1381. The majority of the population in England during this period were peasants, but a peasant who earnt respect could be awarded ‘Freedom of the City’, to become a citizen freedom from ‘serfdom’ e.g. Freeman. It’s a practice that exists to this day, although these days’ to be made a ‘freeman’ and be given ‘freedom of the city’ is an ‘honorary title’.
One thing engrained into Europeans, which I haven’t seen in America, is the ‘wartime spirit’. I’ve seen it surface in Britain, felt and experienced it on occasions myself (during periods of crisis); and during this pandemic I’m quite pleased to see it surface across Europe.Wilderness, truth is told. Government don't have a
No one minded military force when terrorists hit the towers in Manhattan on 9/11. Why?
"I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."
That gives the president that power.
Funny thing about presidential power, risk to peoples' lives is not politics. Why then is it always about GOP vs. Dems with Trump?
The states have the right under states' rights to protect the health of their people. If people in other states do not care about infecting each other or dying from a deadly virus, who are we to stop them?
Just don't ask our states to fork over more federal tax dollars for ignorance and flouting of common sense.LOL His oath does not give him the power to lock people in their houses. How you come to that conclusion is beyond me.
Why GOP vs Dem's with Trump? Because Dem's want him out in the worst possible way; he has been the bane of their socialistic agenda since he got in and they don't like it.They are not "Locked" in their houses. They are stupid, bitter, angry people who are always hateful and ignorant.
I come to MY conclusion because only in these red states do Boogaloo Bois show up dressed like 9/11 terrorists. I know what 9/11 was like. Some don't because they live in wilderness areas of the country tucked into the forests of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming busy practicing their military war games.
Funny how here in NJ and NY, young men don't have time to play war games. Funny how there are NO Boogaloo Bois. Those boys come to our states and cross the state lines and they go to jail dressed like al Qaeda. Been there done that on 9/11.
The Dems are not the only ones who want him out. He will not get a second term because he won't get the vote of 90% of those in the medical or science fields, vets he has left high and dry and women who do not respect his sleazy sexual molesting of underage girls with Jeffrey Epstein.
Not to mention that Wall Street cannot possibly endure 4 more years of his mouthing off that causes losses.
It's a lose/lose for Trump come 2020.
The Dems want a real man who is a real leader and a real president. Not some fake orange haired wannabe who spells like a 3rd grader and speaks as if Mommy Mary Ann will wait on him hand and foot.
When Obama gave the graduation speech, it went viral. The only thing that ever goes viral from Trump are his insults to people more intelligent that he is or his degrading of women."I come to MY conclusion because only in these red states do Boogaloo Bois show up dressed like 9/11 terrorists."
And that means Trump's oath of office gives him the power to shutdown the country? I'm not following the logic here.
If the Dem's want a real man and leader then they should supply a candidate that IS a real man and a leader. Not some socialist wanting only to increase the power of the Democrat party over the lives of the people.Trump loves to pretend in a democratic Republic form of government HE is the sole power. Is that what the Constitution states when it gives Congress the power of oversight of the Executive Branch of government?
The Dem have real man. Trump cannot possibly last another 6 months in the White House. He knows this. So do the Republicans.
Get over it. Nazis were socialists. Are you asking us to believe that those Boogaloo Bois and the Flaming Tiki Torch boys are not Neo Nazis?
This is not a country that EVER be ruled by Trump or the Republican Party.
I am looking forward to the Senate investigation of ObamaGate. I can't wait for Obama to choose his intelligent words carefully and hang the Republicans with their own ignorance and stupidity.
Posts like yours prove only one thing. It is long past time for the 13 donor states to cut off all federal funding to the south and midwestern states until they stop their ideological trigger happy ideas of power.
They live off Dem state tax dollars. NY, NJ and CT, get the least back from the fed for the $1 they pay in federal taxes. All while those southern and midwestern states pig out on 85% of every federal tax dollar.
Time to let the south and midwestern states put their state taxes into their own states and keep out of ours.
Why should our DEm states risk our lives and that of our kids to pay for the AK47 cammo wearing Boogaloo Bois?
Is that how people in the south and midwest spend federal tax dollars?FYI: Just one minor technical correction to note: Nazis were NOT Socialists; it’s a common mistakes Americans make because the Nazis party has the word ‘Socialist’ in it e.g. ‘National Socialist German Workers' Party’.
The Nazis was a ‘Far Right’ political party; which then makes more sense when labelling extreme right-wing Leaders like Trump as tending towards Nazism. After all the Boogaloo Bois and other groups you refer to are very hard-right-wing, and many do have elements of Nazism.
For clarity, see this explanation on Wikipedia:- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_PartyThere are different definitions of Socialism as you know. Hitler himself was a socialist whose socialism was more borne of the same kind of bitterness, anger and resentment we see in many US conservatives today.
Russia was once known as the Union of Soviet Socialists Russia..*USSR" and there is a different version of socialism in Russia than there ever was in Hitler's Germany.
I was not born into a country where a 20 something can walk into a store, refuse to follow health and safety precautions and then nearly beats to death a store clerk, calling it martial law.
If these 20, 30 and 40 somethings think they will take over by shoving guns in our faces everywhere we go, it's a simple matter of cutting off all federal tax dollars their states get the most from.
Then, let's see how they will afford those WMD arsenals. We have a highly intelligent military in the US and also National Guards in every state.
We do not need these pantywaist little boys running around waving semi automatics in our faces.
Here in NJ, one idiot who owns a gym in Camden has refused to obey the state's health regulations regarding the virus. I can just see it now. He's one of those, "No one tells me what to do" idiots who will have those patrons of his sweating in a large room that will become an incubator for infection.
If this is the ONLY way younger generations learn what obeying laws are for, so be it.Yes there are different definitions of Socialism (left wing politics), but Hitler was never a Socialist, he was a ‘Nationalist’ (hard-right wing politics), just like Trump, and just like the current British hard-right wing Government.
If you read the opening paragraph of the Wikipedia article it does clearly explain that Nazism is hard-right wing politics (and not Socialism): - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Party
The confusion (for Americans) comes because Hitler used the word ‘Socialist’ in his political party. There is a similar confusion (for Americans) between the distinction between ‘Socialist Democrats’ and ‘Democratic Socialists’; the former are Liberals while the latter are Socialists.
Americans also get confused between Liberalism (centralist politics in Europe) and Socialism (left-wing politics in Europe) because you don’t have Socialists in American politics e.g. Americans frequently call Democrats Socialists even though their politics is actually Liberalism.
Another common mistake most Americans make is thinking of Socialism as being synonymous with Communism, whereas in fact Communism is just one form of Socialism that is radically different to European Socialism e.g. Communism is a Dictatorship whereas European Socialism is Democratic Socialism.
Nazism (hard-right wing politics) is also a Dictatorship (like Communism, hard-left wing politics), but one main difference (relevant to this discussion) is that Nazism is ‘Nationalism’ (hard-right wing politics), whereas Socialism isn’t e.g. unlike Nationalism, Communism don’t generally care who you are provided you follow their ideology, whereas under Nationalism if you are different (race, colour, creed, religion etc.) then you are persecuted.
Yep Ewent, it seems so strange to us in Europe (from across the pond) that America is making Covid-19 so political when most of the rest of the world have put politics to one side so that all political parties can join forces to fight a common enemy together.
For example in the UK, as well as different political parties in the UK Parliament, each Celtic Nation, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland also have their own Governments, with devolved powers. So the political mix in the UK is:
• The UK Government: Conservative (Right-wing Capitalist Political Party).
• Northern Ireland: DUP in shared power with Sinn Fein (ultra-right wing and extreme left-wing parties).
• Scottish Government: SNP (Socialist Political Party).
• Welsh Government: Plaid Cymru (Socialist Political Party).
In the UK Parliament, as well as the Conservative Government, and the opposition parties from the Celtic Nations (DUP, SNP and Plaid Cymru), the other main Political Parties include Labour (Socialists), Liberal Democrats (Liberals) and the Green Party (Socialists).
Yet, in spite of the wide political spectrum in the UK, far wider and far more diverse than politics in the USA, ALL the Political Parties have put aside politics and have given their full support to the UK Conservative Government, to stand united, in fighting the Covid-19 crisis together.It may surprise our friends across the pond that only 33% of Americans still support Trump. The rest of us leave politics out of this health risk because we know what the word contagious means.
I am sure Brits know better than the US about now to keep epidemics from spreading given your country has more experience than the US.
When you live in the NY/NJ metro area, there is no way we can support the same Trump who has time after time proven he is not worthy of trust.
For me personally, having been through a near fatal case of Lyme disease in 1990, I know politics has nothing to do with a virus.
But, our tax dollars pay for elected officials to do a job. It is our responsibility to see to it they do it and protect the health of all citizens.
Our U.S. Constitution was based on the British form of government and it has stood the test of time.
Trump never stopped campaigning. When any man has such a personal record of corruption and knows he can't always break the law without one day it all coming home to roost, you see why it is important for the right wing in the US and Trump to keep him in the White House.
There are two famous quotes from a world famous man in history, Winston Churchill:
“Politics is more dangerous than war, for in war you are only killed once.”
And this one so aptly describes Trump supporters:
“A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.”"And this one so aptly describes Trump supporters":
"A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.”
This statement in my view describes today's liberal. Conservatives clearly consider facts, make every attempt to stick to a given subject. While liberals continually go divert of a subject, discard facts, and actually dwelling on unproven media propaganda.
I have to say I have witnessed you say some odd things, this takes the cake. You do go on...Actually, whether a political party “consider facts” or ‘ignores them’ isn’t governed by whether they are Conservative, Liberal or Socialist, it’s governed by how ‘radical’ the Government is, and how dogmatic it is in pursuing its own political ideology.
In fact regardless to their political ideology e.g. whether they are Conservative, Liberal or Socialist, it’s the ‘Radical’ Governments that tend to ‘ignore’ the facts.
In Britain, in recent decades it’s been the radical ‘Conservative’ Governments under the leadership of ‘Margaret Thatcher’ in the 1980s, and now under the leadership of Boris Johnson, who are apt at ‘ignoring facts’; the more moderate Conservative Governments under the leadership of John Major in the first part of the 1990’s and under the leadership of David Cameron from 2010 to 2016 paid close attention to the facts; just as the Socialist (Labour) Government under Tony Blair did from 1997 to 2010 did.
I’m not familiar with American politics as I am with European politics; but from across the pond it’s blatantly obvious to us that Trump is a radical leader that’s too obsessed with his own agenda to pay any attention to reality.Where is the conservatism when the National debt since 2017 has increased by another $3 trillion? And that number is BEFORE the virus..
The word conserve means to save or protect. Is that what Trump does? How? By making nice to Putin?
It is time all conservatives faced the reality that their ideology is warped, demented and not conservatism but an attempt to return to the days of the so called Conservatives of the South and Midwest who couldn't get their little patties dirty and used free slave labor to get rich.
How is conservatism today not Nazism? You see their demon seeds out on the streets of so called conservative states dressed like the 9/11 terrorists making threats, beating up people doing their jobs.
What are they saving and protecting? Their egos?
Conservatives today hate truth and facts. When you have a lunatic they elected by skanky means through massive gerrymandering the Supreme Court in 2017 struck down as "extreme gerrymandering, when you have conservative states like North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma all trying to suppress the right to vote, is that also conservatism?
Is it conservatism when Moscow Mitch brokered a deal with Oleg Derepaska who had been banned from doing business in the US until Moscow Mitch got his Senate CONs to repeal the Russian sanctions so Derepaska's RuAL could build an aluminum plant in KY?
I have to say women in the south and midwest are not fooling anyone. We know they get no where without a man buttering their palms.
I'm guessing to be a conservative woman you must obey or as Trump told the White House press, "Mike Pompeo's wife should wash his dishes."
I intend to go on and on and on with truth and facts conservatives hate the most.
And if conservative states think they will get another dime of federal tax dollars from Dem states to add on another $3 trillion, think again.
There is $47 trillion in profits earned in the US sitting offshore. Let the red states live off that.
I cab see why those from across the ponds impression of the US is that we are a chaotic society. The kinds of freedoms we enjoy come with chaos. We are a totally divided country, and I see no end to that.
In my view, the COVID19 crisis has deepened the divide. I feel Trump has done a good job in the midst of all the stumbling blocks he ran into. In my opinion, this virus came out of the blue and was underplayed by not only the WHO, but also the CDC. When it hit it hit hair. We had no means of testing who actually was infected, and our physicians were counting any and all withCOVID symptoms as being infected as well as being counted into the death toll. I appreciate that the Government worked quickly to provide financial aid to all, and have provided money to businesses to make every attempt to keep many afloat. Could things been done better, yes there is room for improvement. Our National Stockpiles could have been better, and our ability to produce test kits should have been better. However, we found out we just did not have the companies here to produce the amounts of teat kits we needed.
All and all, I think we will weather this storm.Yep, lots of valid points.
However the virus certainly didn’t come out of the blue. Italy and Spain were hit hard with it over three weeks before the UK went into lockdown, and the UK went into lockdown before the USA took any radical steps (other than banning non Americans from China or Europe from entering the USA).
Britain did have advanced warning, when it could have taken action, but our Prime Minister dithered for 10 days before acting. If he had acted sooner; like other European countries did, then the death toll in the UK would have been lower.
I’m not sure it’s accurate to say the USA had ‘no means of testing who actually was infected’. In the UK we had limited means (limited to hospitals only), so initially deaths as a result of Covid-19 in the UK rather than being over counted, were in fact undercounted e.g. over 10,000 covid-19 related deaths in the first month in the UK did not get included in the data; that omission has now been corrected, so covid-19 deaths in the UK is now a lot higher than originally thought; and I suspect the same may apply in the USA e.g. the covid-19 related deaths in the USA have been underestimated, not over estimated.
Likewise, our National Stockpiles could have been better in the UK as well, and our ability to produce test kits should have also been better. Our Government, like just about every Government in the world, made lots of mistakes initially, and still does make mistakes, and errors of judgement; a steep learning curve; but our Government, as with many Governments around the world are learning; sometimes the hard way.Early on I think Trump made the mistake trusting those around him. On January 20, 2020, we had our first case in the US, Trump added the travel ban on Jan 31. At that point, Fauci, as well as the CDC and WHO, were vocally against the ban, claiming it was not called for.
Early on we had little testing ability. It was to be expected due to not having complete information on the virus. That information was needed to even start producing tests. Many just don't understand that fact. When a new strain of the virus the tests must be developed to test that specific strain. I think media has made it seem like these kit should have been stored. Whereas they could not be available very quickly. The problems occurred due to not having the supplies in the amounts needed to produce the test kits, along with ways to develop the tests. Yes, we could have had better stockpiles of swabs a reagent. However, at any rate we needed the virus to work a specific test for COVID 19.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2020 … to-produce
In regards to the count in the US, we had two other viruses that were prevalent form Nov - to today. An (H1N1) and B. A - has the very same symptoms of COVID19. This leaves me to think do to poor testing ability many that died of A(H1N1) were most likely counted in the COVID death toll. Being an RN I have had the advantage of speaking to physicians about this very problem. Docs were told if a patient died with even one symptom COVID was to be listed on the death record even when the PT was not tested, and few were in the first month of the virus.
I don't think we will ever decipher true stats on this virus due to lack of testing, and having H1N1 circulating at the same time. Both are virulent quick-spreading viruses.
I have come to the view there is no real point to blaming anyone for the spread of COVID, it is a new virus, it is not the first and will not be the last. Not sure why we should have expected any Government could be totally prepared for an unknown virus.IT's ultimately a freak of nature... In regards to the death toll. Being a nurse I can tell you there are other concerns that kill more virulently than COVID, opioids. Last year we had 69,029 people died of a drug overdose This was down from the year before we had an estimated 100,000 died of overdoses. I would prefer it if my Government put some effort into curbing this problem. ( not meaning to change the subject --- Just expressing my own view )Yep, calling a travel ban as early as he did is the only sensible thing I think I’ve seen Trump do or say!
Albeit, the logistics of the travel ban was handled badly e.g. thousands of Americans returning home all at once, overcrowding at the American Airports on their return, with an unknown of them carrying the virus back with them from China and Europe. The crowded conditions at the American airports being perfect conditions for spreading the virus further, and dispersing it across America; especially considering how infectious it is e.g. the ‘R’ value being 3.
I appreciate that back then we didn’t have the kits or resources for mass testing; but there was no attempt to ‘trace and contact’, and no instructions for returning Americans to self-isolate.
In contrast, Brits repatriated from other countries, as borders started to close, and airlines started to close down, were required to self-isolate for 14 days; as a precautionary measure.
Yep, early on the UK wasn’t geared up for reliable testing either. And although the infrastructure for mass testing was set-up in the UK in early March, it’s only been in the past few weeks that Britain has finally got its act together to step up mass testing; and even now we are struggling to meet our own targets, but improvements to the system are being made by the week.
However, it wasn’t due to the lack of information; the necessary information to make mass testing possible was given to the WHO by China in January, by the end of January South Korea was doing mass testing coupled with ‘trace and contact’; which has proved extremely effective in South Korea in keeping the virus under tight control.
Both the UK and the USA chose not to put any great resources into mass testing in the early days; and paid the price for it in lives. Other countries across Europe did put more resources into mass testing, and ‘trace and contact’, to varying degrees, which helped them to better control the pandemic.
But your other point is valid; there were major supply problems with the test kits, and sourcing the supplies to mass produce the test kits; and the British Government (quite rightly) rejected any kit or supply that didn’t meet British Standards. So rather than making it a high priority, as other countries did, Britain focused on other areas for fighting the spread of covid-19.
I appreciate that knowing the exact numbers of covid-19 deaths isn’t possible; and not all deaths have been recorded accurately e.g. across Europe (including the UK), although some deaths may have been attributed to covid-19 incorrectly; the evidence is mounting that a greater number of deaths due to covid-19 have not been recorded as covid-19 related. And most certainly, a great many covid-19 deaths in poor countries like India, Africa and Mexico are most certainly not being recorded as covid-19 related. Therefore, I suspect that if the truth be known, it’s a similar pattern in the USA?
For example, when the ONS (Office of National Statistics) in the UK published their monthly data on the 28th April, it quickly transpired that the UK Government had been under reporting covid-19 deaths because they’d only been counting deaths in hospital where patients had tested positive for covid-19, and not taken into account covid-19 related deaths in care homes or at home.
So now, the UK Government includes in its figures all deaths in hospitals where patients tested positive for covid-19, plus deaths in care homes and at home where covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. However, the data published by ONS still shows that even that may be an underestimate simply because the total number of all deaths in the UK in April (regardless to cause) is double to the ‘average over 5-years) of all deaths in the UK for April between 2015 and 2019 e.g. significantly higher than the Official figure for covid-19 related deaths by about 10,000.
• UK Total Deaths April 2019 = 44,123
• UK Total Deaths April 2018 = 46,469
• UK Total Deaths April 2017 = 39,101
• UK Total Deaths April 2016 = 46,856
• UK Total Deaths April 2015 = 45,178
• Grand Total (All deaths in April for 2015 to 2019 in the UK) = 221,727. Divided by 5 (Average over Five Years) = 44,345
Based on published data for just the first two weeks of April. The total for all Deaths for April 2020 in the UK is likely to be around 80,000 (double the national average for any April in the last five years).
In the week ending 10th April 2020 and week ending 17th April 2020 (first two weeks of April 2020) e.g. data for the last two weeks of April not due to be released by ONS until 28th May 2020 = Total Deaths in first two weeks of April 2020 = 40,867.
The five year average from 2015 to 2019 for the same two weeks is only = 21,017 (half of the 40,867 for this year).
The ONS (Office of National Statistics) in the UK is an Independent Government Department e.g. it is only answerable to Parliament, not to the Government; this being a safeguard to help prevent any UK Government from interfering with or tampering with the data. The ONS publishes its data (on all social and economic aspects in the UK) in the Public Domain, on their website, so that it is freely available for all to see e.g. a useful source of information for a ‘reality-check’ for the Opposition Parties in Parliament.
Deciphering the true stats on this virus due to the lack of testing has been a valid point up to now; but that may be about to change; at least for the UK! Not only are we beginning to get quality data published by ONS in their monthly reports, which is proving invaluable (and which is helping the British Governments to formulate their policies), but also, yesterday the NHS/British Government approved an antibody test kit (developed by Sweden) which is 100% accurate and doesn’t have the ‘false positives’ that are common with so many other kits. Therefore, the NHS/British Government now has the tool to start to find out how many people in the population have had covid-19; and from other small scale studies carried out in other countries I suspect that figure will be surprisingly low e.g. anything from 5% (or lower) to little or no more that around 15% at most. But over the coming month or so we should begin to get some idea on this!
I totally agree with the first half of your last paragraph e.g. no point in the blame game, a new virus that Governments were not prepared for etc.
However, I question your last point that the 69,029 deaths in the USA from drug overdose in 2019, and over 100,000 in 2018 is worse than the covid-19 deaths in the USA. At the time of writing this, in just two months (since the 16th March, when the first 100 covid-19 deaths were recorded) the total number of covid-19 deaths in the USA has reached 86,912 deaths. And that’s in just two months, whereas the 69,029 deaths last year for drug overdose were over 12 months (not just in two months). Also you’re still in the middle of the pandemic in the USA, which although is currently showing some signs of slowing slightly (due to social distancing) will almost certainly rise again in the coming weeks, as the USA eases up on those restrictions which have helped to slow the spread of the virus. So it is very likely that the total covid-19 death toll within the next couple of months (by August) could easily be double e.g. 160,000 or higher; and by the end of the year quite easily be over 200,000 and heading towards quarter of a million; which to me seems to dwarf any other cause of death in the USA?Sharlee,
please understand that all drug overdose or H1N1 or otherwise related death causes are already "priced" into life expectancy. If the US has a problem with opioids, then this probably is one, but the only cause, why life expectancy in the US is 3 years less than in Europe and almost 5 years less compared to Italy.
In March, April and May the Corona related death count in the US is 15% to 25% above average death rate. And that does not even include the undetected Covid19 related cases. Doesn´t mean that in your particular county or city you may not have noticed anything of Covid19. Then you are plain lucky. What am i to say for my dwelling: 200.000 inhabitants, 200 cases overall, 1 death, currently 2 active cases. Nobody noticed anything, but country-wide, world-wide Corona is certainly is big problem.
Studies have shown, that for individual death cases ( especially elderly), Corona takes some 9 to 11 years off life. Any argumentation that average age of Corona deaths is mostly higher than average life expectancy is plain false.
Already now, while the pandemic is still developing, it can be said that death count in the US could have been reduced at least 50%, if decisive measurements had been taken. In my understanding this is very bad management with fatal consequences. People get harmed and the economy gets harmed. Nothing is achieved.
Please forgive me for being very negative about a country that is not my own. But i have sympathy for US and its people. They don´t deserve this management.Sharlee, by the way, i used to live in Tuscola County, but that is generations ago.
You asked for what could have been done differently. A very valid question. Before responding, allow me to express that i try to participate in discussions and arguments on this forum only, if i have personal experience or background. Now, i am not a doctor, have no health care background. But until recently i was a business consultant with international clients mostly in high tech enterprises. So my background is management, from factory to executive level.
A good manager is judged by how flexible his organization can react on unexpected incidents. And it does not matter, be it a computer virus, a real virus or some other problem. It also doesn´t matter if it is a small construction company, an international player or a complete economy.
Last year a company i worked for, had a large shipment going to the US. At arrival at some harbour in Texas, the whole shipment was stopped by customs, because in the wood of the protective packing were found bugs, small insects that were considered to be dangerous.
An unexpected incident par excellence. Matters had to be analysed to not make that fault again, financial loss had to be minimized, actually everything had to be done on a small scale, that as well applies to the big worldwide issue of Corona. What to do:
First concentrate on removing the issue, not blaming the packaging company (WHO, China) that had not taken care of the wood impregnation properly.
Secondly, use experts to analyse and listen to the experts.
Thirdly, identify the bottleneck, the issues that hinder swift reaction. (PPE, ventilators, testing, hospital beds, health care system) and support them, throw in resources. Did not happen.
No. 4: Unite all resources and work together: On the contrary upper management (White House) and middle management (states) oppose each other.
No. 5: Solve the issue and don´t look at the next quartely financial statement (for Corona: no reelection campaigning)
There are some more general rules for management like: Don´t mess with the chain of command. I have doubts that is obeyed in the WH either.
Just by judging according to those few rules i cannot help to say: Really poor management. If i ran into perfomance like this in a company i would request to people responsible to be fired.
We can go into this much deeper. So treat this as a starter please."Thirdly, identify the bottleneck, the issues that hinder swift reaction. (PPE, ventilators, testing, hospital beds, health care system) and support them, throw in resources. Did not happen."
And yet we had military hospital ships into pandemic centers very quickly. Temporary hospitals were built. Manufacturers leaned on to convert to making masks and ventilators. All without truly truly understanding if they would be needed.wilderness, i also didn´t understand what the hospital ships were needed for. Same for the DIY ventilators.
Possibly this reflects on the American culture. It is a culture of heroes, if i may say. To be frank: in an organised system you don´t need special action to be taken, you don´t need heroes.
A story i found on a website on management principles. Goes like this:
An appartment building is on fire. Smoke everywhere. People have to be rescued. Next day newspapers are full with heroic firemen who rescued people. - Nobody mentions the family, whose smoke detectors did respond and who quietly went outside to safety.
I guess you understand my point, and why this story was displayed within management context.I hope to all so add, we never ran out of hospital beds or vent. Here in Michigan, the military we turned a huge property in Detroit (our hardest-hit area) into a hospital. We only had 8 PT ever see the inside of that hospital. Trump worked quickly to get needed supplies and extra bed capacity. I have not heard one story where anyone was denied a bed or a vent from the very beginning of the outbreak. Trump is a problem solver.
How is Michigan fairing now; with the current pandemic spiralling out of control across the USA?
Out of control implies disaster. I don't see a disaster. At this point the mortality rate is low enough. The government cannot (not in our system of government) control most variables which contribute to the spread of the disease.
I think anyone who blames our federal government for any perceived shortcomings doesn't understand how our system of government works.‘Out of control’ is how it is seen from Europe (across the pond) e.g. a second spike, far higher than the first spike that killed over 100,000 Americans; no sign of any effective measures to curb the second spike which is still rising rapidly by the day, with no indication of when it may peak, or how high that peak may be.
And the sad reality is that there is always several weeks delay between the rise in infection rates, and the rise in deaths. So the worst is yet to come.We'll see what the future brings. From what I've heard the demographics in this wave seem to be young adults with mild symptoms. No over running of hospitals (we never had that like it was seen in Europe) and very very low mortality rate. It isn't the disaster you imagine from your side of the pond. But I get it. You guys had an over 15% mortality rate. You would be more fearful. The town I live in had a less than 3% mortality rate first time around.
Like I stated previously. Our federal government does not have the authority to control citizens. I have no idea how to stop the spread and maintain individual liberties at the level I expect in this country. So, we'll see. No one attempted to control the crowds wandering the streets in protest so I do not look kindly on any attempt at government control of those of us who did not participate in the violence; while claiming they care about public health.Live to Learn: Yep, those countries in Europe who were slow in imposing the lockdown e.g. Italy, Spain, UK, the mortality rate was high. Boris hesitated for 10 days before imposing the lockdown, which contributed to the death rate being more than double of what it would have been if we had lockdown the economy early. In countries such as Germany and Greece who did lockdown early, their death toll was consequently amongst the lowest in the world.
But the UK reached its peak on the 14th April, and since then both new cases and the death rate have been steadily falling ever since; in spite of the fact that the UK has been steadily re-opening its economy since the 15th May (four weeks after the peak). While the USA didn’t reach its peak until the 24th April, and started to re-open its economy on the 1st May; far too soon e.g. trying to get back to normal while the virus was still widespread within the community, so in the USA the curve never really came down by much, and is now rapidly on the rise again (far higher than it was at its first peak on the 24th April).
Yes, that is the problem in the USA, the concept that ‘Individual Liberties’ (the USA’s ‘Wild West Spirit) is paramount; an attitude which seems to be the ‘death’ of 10’s of 1,000 of Americans. People across Europe, in Australia, New Zealand, and other free countries across the world don’t like being quarantined, or controlled, by the authorities any more than Americans do; but we recognise the need to do so (to save lives), and therefore are far more accepting of draconian measures imposed by the Authorities for the common good.
Actually the 15% vs 3% mortality rate you quoted is misleading. If you study the raw data below, you will see that currently deaths from covid-19 in the UK is only 33% more per head of population than in the USA; a month back it was 50%, so the gap (difference) is slowly narrowing.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Also, FYI hospitals in several southern States in the USA have reached full capacity within the last few days e.g. although currently its’s the younger people who are predominantly catching the virus, and the younger people do have a better survival rate; young people in the USA are dying in larger numbers than previous, and now that they are in hospital, on ventilators, it is only a matter of weeks before their deaths show up in the stats.
The USA is only 5% of the world population, yet its already had 25% of the worlds death from covid-19; so although things may be quiet in the State you live in; there are other States where the situation is much worse.
Bristol (where I live), with a population of 535,907 people, hasn’t been greatly affected by the pandemic. During the whole pandemic only 726 people in total, in Bristol, have tested positive (so only a handful of deaths in the city); in fact, only 19 people tested positive in Bristol during the whole of June. The worst affected areas were London and the North of England.
However, that is no reason to be complacent, because the virus is a silent killer, that you can’t see, and it spreads exponentially (if allowed). And it does kill the young.Lol. I'm only laughing at your comment about our desire to maintain our individual liberty being a problem.
I think that ends this discussion.
And not even that.
Fauci: "...you can’t talk about a second wave in the summer because we’re still in the first wave. We want to get that first wave down. Then we’ll see if we can keep it there."
What appeared to be working (lockdowns and so) went down the drain with the I-want-to-open-everything-now attitude. So now they see what man of us knew will happen.
Thank you for asking. Michigan is doing very well, case infections very low on average 3 to 4 deaths per day. We have about 10 million living in Michigan. We have been opening over the past month, and seem to be doing we. Our hospitals are back up and running as normal.
I have been watching the stats closely, it appears we have anywhere from 40 to 50 thousand new cases per day for the past week, but an accumulated death toll that is very low.
Yesterday we had 54,900 new cases and 667 deaths for the day. The stats seem to show the virus is perhaps much more catchy, but less likely to kill. It seems we are building a good size herd.
Just my opinion but I feel in the next few weeks we may be having a better idea where this virus is headed. Hopefully, it's on its way out.Looks like we'll have a new weapon to combat the disease, if not prevent it. The Henry Ford Health System has done a large, published and peer reviewed study of the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in preventing death from complications in COVID 19 patients. Unlike earlier "studies" of a couple other outfits that looked at a couple of hundred trials, the Health System analyzed efforts at several major hospitals and over 2400 patients. The finding is that the death rate is cut in half (from 26.4% to 13%) when the drug is administered early in the disease. That's pretty significant, and it will help that Trump has stockpiled huge amounts of the drug.
https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/ … ment-study
The published article, in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, with specific details and data:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltextThanks for the update wilderness, it was covered on the news media last week, and every advancement in combating the mortality rate is a step in the right direction.
Thanks Sharlee for the update in Michigan; let’s hope it stays that way.
However, there is ALWAYS several weeks lag between rising cases and rising death tolls; so, if not in Michigan, then certainly in many States you can expect the death toll to start rising sharply by the end of July.
True, the ‘testing’ in the USA is giving a positive rate of up to 20% in some States e.g. 1 in 5 tested being infected with the virus; but no indication that the USA is anywhere near reaching ‘heard immunity’ yet e.g. 80% of the population with antibodies; and the path to reach that level of protection (even with the advancement in treatment) would mean further deaths far in excess of the current 125,000 deaths, perhaps quarter of million or higher deaths!
Currently the UK is testing up to 200,000 a day, as part of the ‘trace and isolate’ programme to curtail the infection; and in contrast to the USA, the positivity rate on testing in the UK is only 0.5%; and in parallel to testing for infection, the UK Government (NHS) is currently running a nationwide 20% random sample testing of the population for antibodies (for research purposes only), for which our son was selected (his result was negative). The early indications of antibody testing in the UK is that (outside of London) less than 5% of the UK population has been exposed to the virus (have antibodies).
Where the UK Government is finding levels of infection high (hot spots) then they, as with other countries like Germany, Australia, South Korea etc. are using the ‘Whack-a-Mole’ approach e.g. putting the hot spots into quarantine to prevent the spread of the virus to the wider community.
Tower Block in Germany put under quarantine last week, fenced off and re-enforced by police, when 120 out of 700 residents tested positive for COVID-19: https://youtu.be/xaZoSQAlrdI
UK Conservative Government (Boris) puts City of Leicester (population 329,839) back into lockdown, and isolated from the rest of the UK, this week, because of 41 new infections in the city in just one week: https://youtu.be/tGR9vkHGN2wI have been tracking the stats as of about June 18 cases of infection started rising, hospitalizations falling as well as the death toll. Yesterday we had 45,182 new cases, with a death toll of 254. The charts show from June 18 on the cases were rising while the death toll was plummeting. The world stats are following the same pattern.
It well appears the virus has mutated as Dr. Fauchi claimed, and is more spreadable, but less of a killer.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/Dr. Fauci did not say it was a ‘less of a killer’. He said the mutation made it more infectious, but not more deadly e.g. the chances of dying from it (once you’ve contracted the virus) is the same as before.
The one point you haven’t grasped is that there is always several weeks lag between becoming infected and hospitalisation, and then several weeks lag between hospitalisation and death. Therefore the sudden and dramatic rise in infections in recent days will not manifest itself into deaths until towards the end of July.
The UK, which is the worst affected country in Europe, had just:-
• 516 new cases today with just
• 22 new deaths.
The USA had:-
• 45,182 new cases today with
• 254 deaths in the last 24 hours.
Both new cases and deaths are still steadily falling in the UK
In the USA new cases have sky rocketed in recent days, so you can expect deaths to follow suit within a few weeks.
FYI: Hospitalisations are NOT falling, but rising dramatically in several Southern States:-
Coronavirus cases through July 2: Texas hits record high in hospitalizations with 7,382 patients: https://youtu.be/8Dhc-oHTwTcI think the next two weeks will give us here in the USA a good idea if the increase in cases will cause more death. Being a nurse I have many friends working daily in local hospitals here in Mich. I have gleaned from them the virus has taken on new symptoms, and they are seeing a few cases hospitalized for more than a day or two, most being young adults.
For over one month we have seen an increase in cases ( we have been testing 20 to 25 thousand a day) but the death toll is very low, yesterday we had none.
I am watching the numbers in our south, they have had the largest jump in cases, although death rates have remained low as in Mich.
“There’s a little dispute about it, but I think the data is showing that there is a single mutation that actually makes the virus be able to replicate better and maybe have high viral loads,” Fauci said.
Fauci noted there’s no confirmation on whether a patient would fare better battling this new mutation."
Hopefully, some of this information will be coming soon.
July 5,
USA --New cases 44, 530 Death 251
It well appears(if these stats hold) the virus has mutated and spreads more quickly but causes less death. The next two weeks will show if the virus has mutated to a strain that is no longer causing deaths that are different than the yearly flu. Hopefully, the virus will be one that fizzles on its own.
Sharlee: Yes, where I live (Bristol) is like Michigan e.g. very low case count and very low deaths; the concentration (epicentres) of the virus at the moment is in London, Northern England and north Wales. It’s now virtually eradicated in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Looking at the stats for the whole of the pandemic to date (March to end of June inclusive), in relation to testing and confirmed cases; in the UK 2.68% of tests have been positive; in the USA it’s 10%. In the past week only 0.5% of tests in the UK have been positive; in the USA over the past week several Southern States are showing over 20% of the tests as positive.
5th July in UK, just 516 new cases, and just 22 deaths; compared to the USA where it was 44,530 new cases and 251 deaths; so in the USA that’s over 86 times more news cases than in the UK on 5th July; with the death toll being 11.4 times higher in the USA. Given that the USA population is 4.9 times bigger than the UK population; it would seem to me that per head of population, and in actual numbers, an awful lot more people are dying in the USA from covid-19 than in the UK.
What you do need to bear in mind is that when people become infected they don’t die almost immediately, there’s several weeks lag before they become sick enough to need a hospital, and then a further few weeks after admission to hospital before they start dying e.g. a long lag time.
Also, you need to bear in mind that there will be a correlation between the number of people who become infected and the total number of deaths e.g. the more people who become infected, the more people who (within 6 to 8 weeks) will eventually die. So as the number of people who are becoming infected in the USA has more than doubled in the last week you can expect the number of people who are dying at the end of July to more than double.
So if you want to be sure of cutting the death rate, rather than risk it rising again, you do need to dramatically cut the number of people becoming infected; which is NOT happening in the USA.
Governments of all the wealthy countries (except the USA), and many other countries like South Korea, around the world are making every effort to keep the infection rate low. Apart from New York, and perhaps a handful of other northern States; the USA is making no such attempt, so in many parts of the USA the infections are now spreading exponentially.
Most countries around the world, including the EU and Australia, do close off internal and external borders, and even isolate whole cities, and even individual residential tower blocks to contain the virus e.g. just today Australia has just closed its internal border between Victoria and the rest of Australia to contain the virus. Australia, with a population of over 25 million, have had a grand total of just 8,586 infections during the whole pandemic, and just 106 deaths in total, because (like South Korea and Greece etc.) their Government have been strict on fighting the pandemic from the start. All these countries now have economies in growth because the pandemic in those countries is now largely behind them.
Last week, the city of Leicester (with over 300,000 people) was shut off from the rest of England to contain the spread of the virus.
However, I can’t imagine that internal borders between States in the USA would ever be closed to prevent cross-border contamination, and re-contamination.
Apart from nightclubs, cinemas and theatres, which are still closed in the UK, the UK economy is now (since the 4th July) beginning to recover e.g. pubs and restaurants in the UK were allowed to open on the 4th July for the first time since 23rd March; with lots of strict regulations to minimise the risk of spreading the virus. So things are beginning to get back to normal in the UK, and safely with low infection rates e.g. the spread of the virus is currently well contained in the UK, with a very low and decreasing death rate.
4th July: Pubs, hairdressers and theme parks reopen in England – UK COVID-19 update https://youtu.be/k_GhhH6XLNg
The above video shows how the UK Government is re-opening pubs safely; how does it compare to the ‘health & safety’ restrictions imposed on pubs in the USA?
The one thing I can’t get my head around is why Americans seem so blasé about the high death toll in America (over 130,000 dead, and still rising), and the high and dramatically increasing infection rate, currently around 50,000 new infections a day, which will lead to more deaths, which could have been avoidable if the USA Government had taken the pandemic seriously and fought it like most other countries have done.
The most worrying thing is that the virus does spread exponentially (and more people who become infected, the more deaths will follow). Once you let the virus spread out of control it is extremely difficult to contain; as the UK, Italy and Spain found to their cost. But fortunately the UK, Italy and Spain learnt their lesson early on, and now have the virus well under control, so that they can now safely open up their economies with minimal additional loss of life; something the USA seems to be struggling to do!
But all I can see from the other side of the pond is that Trump is in denial about the pandemic, and his only interest is to open up the American economy as fast as possible, regardless to how many lives it costs, just so that he can boast about the economic figures come the Election in November.
As regards your last comment:
“It well appears (if these stats hold) the virus has mutated and spreads more quickly but causes less death. The next two weeks will show if the virus has mutated to a strain that is no longer causing deaths that are different than the yearly flu. Hopefully, the virus will be one that fizzles on its own.”
FYI: The mutation you refer to does not make the virus less lethal, it just makes it more infectious e.g. more spikes on the outside of the virus cell so that it has a greater chance of latching onto a lung cell so that it can get inside the lung cell in order to start replicating itself.
The low deaths you see at the moment are due to other factors e.g. improved treatment, younger people (who do have a better survival rate) being more commonly infected, and the long lag time between infection and death. Although younger people do have a better survival rate, young people do die of the virus; and with the younger generation currently exposing themselves to infection by socialising etc. it is only a matter of time before they in turn start infecting their parents and grandparents, who have a higher risk of dying from covid-19.
An interesting and valid comment Chris57. I think your thinking about how to deal with a problem is on track.
GAYep, spot on Chris.
In my last job in the civil service (before I took early retirement) I was required to do the course and take the exams in PRINCE2 (Project Management) as part of my job.
And also, during that period, I volunteered in the civil service to be part of the Nationwide Government ‘Disaster Recovery’ Team (for tackling ‘national disasters’) which I found educational, and which I enjoyed being a part of. (And for my reward I was given an expensive calculator as a free gift!).
So I learnt a lot of the skills you refer to, and understand exactly what you are saying.Chris, as you might know, the British Government gives a daily briefing to the Nation at 5pm, which on the podium are three people: A senior member of the Government in the centre, usually with a Health Expert on one side and a Scientific Expert on the other. Currently the briefing itself is around 20 minutes followed by Q&A’s for usually about the next 40 minutes; starting with questions from the general public and finishing with questions from the ‘Press’.
The Daily Briefings are broadcast across ALL British TV News Channels live, and I (as with many Brits) find these daily briefings very informative; largely because there’s no attempt at trying to make them political or upbeat, or depressive, but just informative. And when the Government gets things wrong, or miss their targets, they will openly admit it in the daily briefings; which is refreshing.
With your expertise in the area of ‘Project Management’, and as an outsider, if you have the time, and you are interested, I’d be interested in your thoughts/impression on these daily briefings e.g. from your perspective. Below is the link to just the first 20 minutes of yesterday’s UK Government Daily briefing to the Nation e.g. up to the first question from the public: https://youtu.be/IQP2UyiDGAoNathan, that is what i ment with my remark on Trump and Johnson. They are not "tweedledee and tweedledum". In the UK i see a plan and action, even if the matter is far from being under control.
In the US there is a big contest going on about who can throw fog candles and smoke grenades best. No plan on the horizon.
A little technical background on system dynamics: To analyse a dynamic system, you can neglect static situations. In the context of the dynamic system "Corona US", you can set aside all states where outbreak is under control. For example: substract New York numbers from the rest of the US and you have a more realistic picture of how contained the situation is. And it is not contained at all. Active cases are on the rise, the daily change on active cases is as high as 2 months ago and even higher if take out New York. To talk about opening up does not sound very reasonable.I'm not seeing anything indicating an increase in new cases - on the contrary the increase of total number of cases seems to be slowing, indicating that the rate of new cases in falling. Seems to be because no one is reporting just what the rate of new cases is.
If so, and the rate of new cases is falling, then that would indicate that at least some control is being achieved even though there are new cases every day.
In my state (Idaho) the death toll has in fact stabilized and has not risen at all, even though there are cases of infection still to be resolved between death and recovery. This, too, seems to indicate that we are beginning to see some control.
I would sure like to see a graph showing new cases being reported per day, over the past month or so. Not a graph of total cases, but new cases being seen each day.wilderness, please try this link:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
If you scroll down, you will find a chart on active cases. The curve is still going up in the US. You can do the same trick for other countries or even to some extent to any state, indian reservation..., you only have to work yourself through that webpage.
I looked at Idaho and aggree that it is in stable condition. So where is the rise in active cases coming from (some 20k per day)? Must be from other hotspots, because NY is cooling down.
One explanation could be that recovered people are not tested enough and thus not recorded to relieve the active case count. How are recovered cases handled?
I would expect that for good understanding of the outbreak status you need at least 3 tests per infected ( 1 for infection, 1 for recovery and one to make sure) and a hit rate of less then 5% for newly infected. Otherwise you bend the curve by simply not testing enough or without testing strategy. Are all health care workers tested regularly?
In Germany testing is still in the range of 80.. 100.000 per day. But daily new infected is well below 1.000 now. That is a hit rate of less than 1%. Only when you start searching the needle in the haystack, your are on the safe side.Thanks for the feedback Chris.
Testing has been a sore point with the British Government, one of its spectacular failures!
After running trials the British Government set up the infrastructure for mass testing (Drive through Test Centres) across the UK from Monday 2nd March (three weeks before we were put into lockdown). However, virtually all of them just collected dust for over two months; and even now many are still not being fully utilised simply because the Government didn’t have the resources (logistics and staff) and had major difficulties in importing reliable test kits, or the raw materials necessary for British manufacturers to produce the kits in sufficient numbers. Part of the problem being that the NHS rejected a high percentage of kits from abroad because they didn’t meet the NHS high standards (Quality Control).
Therefore testing didn’t start in the UK until the 6th April, and for the first month was low; far lower than the Government wanted. The Government’s target on the 6th April was to achieve 100,000 a day by the 31st April, which it did achieve at the 11th hour, but just for two days by throwing all the resources to hand at it. Albeit, in the past three days they have now achieved and exceeded their target; currently achieving about 135,000 tests a day, and rising.
The Government’s next target (set on the 1st May) is to achieve 200,000 per day by the 31st May.
As regards daily new cases, in spite of no mass testing initially, there were over 4,500 new recorded cases per day at the beginning of April, and rising; peaking at well over 6,000 on the 1st may. However, since the 5th May new daily recorded cases have steady fallen, and is now down to less than 3,500 per day, and falling, in spite of the number of daily tests being done steadily rising by the day; which the Government takes as a good sign e.g. the more tests you do the more cases you are likely to detect.
The British Government isn’t testing the General Public at large yet. Currently, the only people eligible for testing are NHS and support staff, people in care homes, and key workers e.g. the people most exposed to the virus and therefore most at risk at becoming infected; but the Government’s desire is to make testing more widely available in time.
As a follow up, the Government now intends to shortly start testing all NHS staff, people in Care Homes and Key Workers with the new antibody tests which they’ve recently ‘Approved’ (because of its reliability) to get a full picture of the spread of the virus in these key areas, including accurate data on asymptomatic people; to help the Government with future strategies in combating the virus.
So we may not be doing as well as Germany e.g. Britain now being the worst hit country in Europe; but I think by taking a more cautious approach than the USA, the UK will fare a lot better than the USA in the long run.
I read in German news outlets that concerns are growing about the mismanagement in the White House.
There is total disbelief that no contact tracing is running. Apparently some people were assigned for the job but they had no order to do the job. Big questionmark ???
I don´t quite understand what the difference is between being assigned and ordered to do , but may be i am too much used to corporate management and leadership.
While i am thinking about this, it may be a good idea that Trump and his team get reelected. With their management skills they probably don´t know any more where the presidential football is and lost the keys. Makes us live in a safer world. SMHYep, I'm getting the same message from the British News Media.
"...it can be said that death count in the US could have been reduced at least 50%, if decisive measurements had been taken."
You might be right in that the total death count could have been cut 50% with draconian measures in the US (measures which, for the most part, would be illegal and not tolerated by the population).
But the death rate due to the virus, in the US, is nowhere near the worst in the world, and cutting it 50% would have put the country near the bottom of developed, populous nations. That seems very unlikely given the number of large cities; what are you looking at to form such an opinion?
Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Sweden, Netherlands and Ireland all have a worse per capita death toll from the virus. Most of what is left (but certainly not all) are either from countries that are unlikely to be reporting correctly (China, for instance, or India with it's masses living in the streets) or from third world nations that don't get international travel as other nations do and won't know the death toll in any case. Some notable exceptions might be Germany and Austria; there are others as well, mostly small nations without huge cities (where US deaths are the greatest).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 … habitants/USA’s covid-19 deaths per million is currently 268 (and rising), so cutting it by 50% (down to 134 per million) would not “have put the country near the bottom of developed, populous nations”; it would have put it 21st from top (in the world), instead of its current position of 13th from the top (in the world). Which out of 215 countries would still put the USA in the top 10 worst affected countries in the world, based on deaths per million.
Yep, as you say “draconian measures in the US (measures which, for the most part, would be illegal and not tolerated by the population)”; is something we’ve recently discussed: The USA’s “Wild West Spirit”. However, it’s that same ‘draconian measures’ which is costing ‘lives’ in the USA; while Governments of even the most worst hit countries in Europe e.g. Italy, Spain, UK are using draconian measures, with the full support of their citizens; and such tough measures are undoubtedly saving lives. Although Boris Johnson (British Prime Minister) was slow in acting initially (which cost lives), once he did act, his measures were tough (draconian), and in spite of that he has support of over 80% of the British population, and (according to opinion polls) 25% of the British population think he should be even tougher e.g. more like Italy.
One interesting quirk in the stats is that female leaders have been more successful at managing the coronavirus crisis: This article makes interesting reading: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ … rus-crisis
One facet of Europeans is the attitude that ‘All Life is Precious’, and put a lot of importance on the ‘Value of Life’ etc., something which Americans don’t seem to take so seriously! For example, in the UK even if death tolls in a specific area are already low by International standards e.g. road accidents, even if there is a small rise in the trend, the British Government will act swiftly to bring in new legislation, or raise ‘Standards’ etc., to reduce the risks. Where as from across the pond, I get the distinct impression that all too often the American Authorities (and the American people) will turn a blind eye, taking the attitude that more people die from suicide or cancer etc., and therefore it’s not a great issue compared to other causes of deaths!
NY and NJ are the most people congested of any of the other states per square mile. But I am most proud of our NY and NJ governors. When Trump was unwilling to admit there was an epidemic he then claimed he knew about "before anyone else," he was worried ONLY about his re-election numbers and dumped HIS job on governors.
Then when he realized he had further empowered governors to rely on states' rights to protect the people in their states, he knew these governors and not he, would be making decisions. So on when the Twitter criticisms of governors.
However, the CDC has totally been under Trump's control. Doctors, nurses and state governors in key states affected by this epidemic are all saying the same thing, "trying to contain this virus with no help from the CDC is like driving a car with both hands tied behind your back."
No matter what else Trump says, the US now leads the world in over 1 million infected. That's 1 in every 3 Americans. And as the death count goes to 90,000, all the Trump happy talk just isn't cutting it anymore.
He hates that he cannot control this virus and play world savior.When you say 1 in every 3 Americans you mean 1 in every 3,000 Americans. Even so, that is a lot of people; in spite of 'Social Distancing' which has kept the infection rate a lot lower than it would otherwise have been. Albeit, the infection in America is still spreading, and will probably spread faster because too many States are easing the restrictions too soon and too fast; so that number will shrink still further by the autumn.
No, according to the CDC's most recent report of those infected by the Corona virus, the total infected is 1.54 MILLION of that number 90,000 have died.
President Obama has said that this virus would be bad under any circumstances but not preparing as soon as it was known only made it more deadly.
NY and NJ are now reopening in a very intelligent way. It's being done in phases. It begins with the towns that have had no additional infections for more than 2 weeks.
When states are people congested, it puts greater burden on the entire public to do what they must to stop the spread of the virus.
When I saw those anti lockdown protesters on TV last night, I realized just how under educated the people in some states truly are. Perhaps if they spent more on education and less on AK-47s, they would have better jobs and not have to worry about reopening.
People in NY and NJ are shopping in grocery stores but with necessary social distancing. I am so proud of the young men and women in my state (NJ) who have realized there are always options.
You see them in stores with masks and gloves and no one dares point a gun in a store owner's face.
But these young parents are also creative with the kids. The little ones are masked with these adorable kiddie character designs on their masks.
And this week on my street, the 2 school age kids who had birthdays were celebrated with a drive by party and we all had signs on lawns.
Last weekend, on another street near mine, they had a front lawn barbecue on each lawn while they relaxed in the sun and were able to speak to their neighbors.
No guns in their hands, no threats. What in the world is wrong with people in the south and midwest that all the think about is violence?
And please. Don't tell me they are poor. That is their own fault. They refuse to get an education that fits today's jobs and hold onto jobs that are obsolete.
You bet coal mines, oil rigs and frackola sites have to be shut down for social distancing. That's a "duh" moment they don't like to face."You bet coal mines, oil rigs and frackola sites have to be shut down for social distancing. That's a "duh" moment they don't like to face."
You forgot to mention meat packing sites, plants packaging food of all types from cereal to vegetables. Have to close those, too, don't we? Or are fracking sites, with only a few employees, different from a corn canning operation with hundreds?I am sure I do not have to remind you that the meat packing plants that had to be shut down, Tyson and others are ALL Located in red states. Is that how they define conservatism? Flout the FDA regulations?
The last time anyone bothered to check what these meat packing plants were doing was in the early 1900s when the Muckrakers reported on the most disgusting, unhealthy practices.
We all know how red states conserve: cheap is as cheapos do.
So they don't bother with taking precautions. Hear all over the globe there is an epidemic and do ZERO to protect their workplaces. They should be shutdown for forcing workers to work in violation of OSHA safe workplace regulations.
How is it ONLY plants packing food in the south and midwest are affected? We have dozens of plants packing food right here in NJ. But we obey health and safety regulations and we have inspectors on a regular basis.
I know this because when I worked for nearly 25 years as a tech writer, filing reports for these inspections was part of my job.
The only states complaining about virus restrictions are the red states who were the same states that were home to the Wild West towns where you shoot first and ask questions later.
Sorry but this is 2020 and savages go to prison in our Dem states."The last time anyone bothered to check what these meat packing plants were doing was in the early 1900s when the Muckrakers reported on the most disgusting, unhealthy practices."
We both know that is untrue as they are inspected regularly. Why would you say a falsehood like that? And then indicate they ARE inspected in spite of your comment they are never looked at?
You failed to explain the difference (re: Covid virus) between a food processing plant and a fracking operation. Is there a reason beyond a dislike for the most useful resource we have that you don't want to shut them down, too?
Is this coming close to what is happening in the US?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oo9ka0DDnQk
This guy from CNN gives a reasonable explanation.
People out of jobs in the US immediately face dire financial situation. Makes them very desparate.
I dare say that many, most people in Western Europe do not experience this dire financial situation, even if they are layed off, temporarily or permanently. They have some financial losses, but they also couldn´t spend their money during lockdown, except for living essentials.
And, not many guns around in Europe.Good link, and there is a lot of truth in it. Those at or nearer the bottom of the income ladder have seen the "ruling class", including legislators, increasingly distanced from them, increasingly not understanding (or caring) about the blue collar workers of today. And that most definitely means the large majority of those forced out of their jobs and livelihood. They have very little reason to trust that ruling class, for they are the forgotten ones that no one pays attention to any more.
In addition, Fauci's comment that he does not give advice on anything but health issues is telling; that's all we hear about. Not about the failing economy, not about poverty, not about hunger...just about the health issue of the virus. That is a far cry from ALL the issues the virus has brought about.One question remains. Why would Dr. Fauci, a medical expert and consultant to 5 presidents speak about anything but health issues?
If you want the status of the economy, you go to Nobel prize winners in economics. Do you go to the dentist for a back ache?
One interesting point I picked up from watching the video Chris:
In the USA, of the top 25% of income earners more than 60% can work from home, while of the bottom 25% of income earners, only 10% can work from home.
In comparison, in the UK, from data published by the ONS (Office of National Statistics): Since the Lockdown, 44% of UK employees are now working from home; compared to just 12% in 2019.
ArthurNo quite true. As you may recall, Spain, Italy, Greece and Germany within the past 5 years have had several protests in their streets do to lack of jobs.
The problem in red states is of their own making. No one up north uses coal and the only reliance on oil is the airlines.
The point is that these whiners in red states created their own problems by holding onto obsolete jobs that now face closings for good.
What happened here in NJ is that we merely converted business so that our small businesses could remain open. In fact, they are begging for workers because now they no longer serve in groups in their restaurants and grocery stores.
They've converted to curb service which is safer. I realize people are out of work. But I also know that some of these people earn more from an unemployment check than they received in a Walmartian paycheck.Ewent, with reference to your comment: - “Not quite true. As you may recall, Spain, Italy, Greece and Germany within the past 5 years have had several protests in their streets due to lack of jobs.”
To Chris’s comment:- "I dare say that many, most people in Western Europe do not experience this dire financial situation, even if they are laid off, temporarily or permanently. They have some financial losses, but they also couldn´t spend their money during lockdown, except for living essentials".
The protests you refer to were not due to lack of jobs, they were for varying political and social reasons e.g. in Spain it’s predominately been protests for Catalan independence. Even Britain has its fair share of Protests, predominantly ‘Anti-Trump’ protests, protests against Brexit, and protesters campaigning for World Governments to do more to tackle Climate Change.
Chris is right, most people in Western Europe do NOT experience the dire financial situation currently faced by many Americans, predominantly because our furlough schemes are helping to save jobs, especially in the UK where people who can’t currently work because of the ‘lockdown’, rather than being made unemployed, are paid 80% of their normal wages by the Government; which in turn is helping Industry in not having to make so many people redundant (as the Government is covering the costs). Hence, in the UK unemployment is still less than 2 million, compared to the 26 million unemployed in the USA.
Therefore, during this lockdown, most people in the UK are still getting almost as much money as they would during normal times (80% of their normal income) while not having the cost of travel etc., consequently, although the British people can’t go out to spend money in the shops or on entertainment, holidays etc., they are still nevertheless spending money on more than just food and household bills e.g. online shopping, click and collect etc. In Britain, sales of cloths have plummeted, but the sales of DIY supplies and household goods have risen sharply.
The current economic situation in the UK is less than 2 million unemployed; economic growth currently down by only 2.8% (recession), and rather than inflation we have ‘deflation of 0.9%’.Check again. Those varying social reasons had to do with low pay, lack of decent paying jobs and immigrants coming into their countries they claim were taking jobs away.
I know this because my son's friend lives in Europe and has lived in several of these countries due to the demands of his job.
The United States cannot be allowed to become Dodge City.Nope. I don’t need to check again as I’m not getting the information ‘third-hand’; I LIVE HERE in Europe, so I’m fully aware of the situation in the EU (European Union, 27 Member States) first hand.
You are over simplifying a complex picture, where for some (some of the time) one of the issues might be their perception of job security, for various reasons; of which to some of them immigrants can sometimes be a factor. However, they are NOT in the majority; there are many Social and Political issues at play, not just employment, especially in Germany (one of the four countries you listed) where unemployment was only 3.2%.
Of the four Member States of the EU that you referenced, Greece is most certainly the poorest, because they (along with Ireland) were the hardest hit Member State during the world financial crisis of 2008 e.g. just like some Member States in the USA have greater poverty than others. Whereas in Germany (another of the four you tagged as having high unemployment, even though it doesn’t) as with most of the rest of the 27 Member States of the EU, unemployment is respectively low, and don’t have mass protester protesting against job cuts.
However, if you check your facts, the Greece people were NOT protesting in the Streets due to the lack of jobs, their protests related to the effects of the strict austerity necessary to get Greece out of the economic crisis. It is a far more complex and diverse picture than you paint; and in spite of this, the Greeks are a resilient race, that during the current Covid-19 crisis have supported their Government to fight the pandemic in a way that would seem unimaginable in the USA.
To put it into perspective; below are a handful of short videos that gives some insight into Greece and the Greek People:-
• After virus control, Greece hopes for economic recovery: https://youtu.be/K2qrlBtJhLI
• Europe should learn from Greece in the fight against COVID-19: https://youtu.be/1qJKSR59qkM
• How Greece has emerged an unlikely success story of the coronavirus pandemic: https://youtu.be/m220PqN_KXI
• Greece's economy on the up but not everyone is feeling the benefits: https://youtu.be/rXR9nKC7WKA
• Greece charts a fresh course: https://youtu.be/a3sCy44iAmcIn Europe ...They have some financial losses, but they also couldn´t spend their money during lockdown, except for living essentials".
I did my bi-weekly accounting and now have numbers on my (household of 2) spending for ad-hoc consumption (food, travel, restaurants, gardening, hardware).
Went down from 1400 to 1700 monopoly money in January and February to 450 mms in April (April being the first full month of lockdown).
At least on my spending briefcase lockdown had an impact.
And i didn´t need a refill for my car for 6 weeks.
Can you confirm?Chris, in our family of three:-
• Our son is a self-employed professional photographer, currently not working (due to the lockdown) and therefore paid 80% of his loss earning by the Government.
• My wife took early retirement; currently too young for the State Pension, therefore her only income is her works pension and the disability allowance (PIP) from the Government for her bad back.
• I also took early retirement, and too young for State Pension, therefore my only income is my works pension and the carers allowance from the Government e.g. paid by the Government to look after my wife because of her bad back; effectively being paid by the Government to be a househusband.
So we each have our own budget e.g. my wife pays for the food, clothing, household goods, holidays, luxury items and the car (as I don’t drive) etc., while I pay the utility bills, entertainment, luxury items, DIY and Gardening supplies etc.
• The only real financial difference the lockdown has had on our son is that he can’t drive due to the lockdown so he’s currently saving £20 per month on petrol.
• The only financial difference the lockdown has had on my wife is that we’ve had to cancel this year’s holidays.
• The only financial difference the lockdown has had on me is that I couldn’t take my wife to the restaurant for our wedding anniversary.
Otherwise, the lockdown hasn’t stopped us from spending e.g. since the lockdown:-
• My son has treated himself to a number of Blu-ray box-sets that was on his wish-list.
• My wife bought a new microwave online from our local retail store, and had it delivered e.g. online sales and clicks & collects only, as in-store shopping is currently banned.
• I’ve continued to buy DIY supplies from our local suppliers (click and collect), and since this week (when Gardening was finally added to the ‘essential services’ list by the Government), Gardening Supplies from one of our local Garden Centres.
Like you, I keep monthly accounts; I budget for the whole year, and reconcile the budgets monthly with my bank account.
The UK went into Lockdown on the 23rd March. And my own personal monthly expenditure for this year so far is:-
• Jan £1,246
• Feb £1,662
• March £868
• April £1,075
• May £1,126Arthur, my wife and i never looked at in house food expenses.
The month of April was kind of an experiment because my wife was sick, so i had to do all shopping alone and we had this lockdown with almost no travelling and limited partying, barbecueing. And i tried to pay all purchases without cash to find all bills on my online accounts. So numbers were fairly accurate. We already discussed that our electricity bill would go up because of intensive kitchen use.
The month of May is already void in this respect with all shops open, my wife going on "shopping therapy" with our grandchildren...
Arthur, as we may be able to make jokes in this Corona situation, most people in the US and other parts of the world have other problems. They can´t spend money they don´t have.My wife has a food store at the bottom of the garden where, before the pandemic she would buy food in bulk when it was on offer e.g. half price, or a third off etc., which was saving us over £400 a year, plus I grow all our own vegetables (except potatoes, other than first-early potatoes), and a lot of summer and autumn fruits, which saves us a further £400 a year on our food bill.
Before the pandemic my wife and son would normally do the weekly shopping, but since the pandemic we’ve switched to ordering our food from our local supermarkets weekly on-line and having it delivered; a practice which has become quite common in the UK in recent years as the delivery costs are usually nominal, and sometime ‘free delivery’.
In the initial weeks of the lockdown the supermarkets struggled to keep up with demand for on-line deliveries; because demand soared. However, to resolve the issue, ALL the rival Supermarkets in the UK have joined forces (to pull their resources) so that they now share each others staff, goods (food products) and transport, and hired extra staff and transport, to meet the high demands for home delivery.
For example, in the last two weeks my wife has placed her food shopping order on-line with Morrisons, and a significant amount of food Morrisons has sent us are branded products from their competitors such as the Sainsbury and Tesco Supermarkets etc., and both times the food has been delivered in a ‘hot dog’ van belonging to a hot-dog vendor who currently can’t do his own business because of the lockdown, but who is being hired by the supermarkets to make home deliveries for them.
Yes we are very fortune in Europe as our Governments in most EU Member States, and in the UK, have minimised the financial impact for many European citizens.
And I do feel sorry for citizens in other parts of the world, where things are far grimmer; especially the tens of millions of Americans who are not as lucky as most Europeans; and finding themselves suddenly out of work with little or no income.Interesting take on this virus from a man's point of view. Very enlightening. This corona virus has done several things here in the US. It has brought home to the younger families the importance of family time together.
As one young man told a TV reporter, "We'v eaten dinner as a family nearly every night since this virus began."
The other thing it has done is change the landscape for businesses in a very radical way. Employees were forced to adapt to lock down and stay at home and now they love working from home. Something employers all said couldn't be done.
The impact of this virus will be forever embedded in the minds of the Class of 2020. They are a very special generation who now has an experience unlike any other.
If this virus has done anything major, it is to force corrupt businesses to face the reality that the days of limitless cheating of customers and suppliers is over.
With more people staying at home, men and women are learning how to cut corners they might never have even considered when both were working.Eleanore, you are certainly right that this Corona mess changes the way of life, for the better or for the worse.
We have a big discussion going on about family violence and abuse of children and women during lockdown. They couldn´t ecape anywhere. Because of lockdown, the "Frauenhäuser", safe houses were closed, so women had no place to retreat with their children.
I even noticed this with the family of our daughter. They live close by. A lovely family, but after some weeks in lockdown every other day the parents had the urgent desire to leave their kids with us for a relax timeout. At first i thought it were the kids who wanted to come, but it was the wish of their parents as well.
.. a mans point of view.. interesting that you consider this enlightening. My comment is much more innocent, because my wife took early retirement and i am a privatus, running my businesses from home. So with children out of the house, long before Corona we enjoyed the experience of living together 24/7. Actually my only real issue with lockdown was travel restrictions. Otherwise we would have taken our RV and gotten on the road in April. I have to admit, pure luxury thinking.I was interested to read about how the Covid-19 lockdown has impacted on ‘family violence’ (Domestic Abuse) in Germany. It was briefly topical in the UK about six weeks back, but since then the UK Government has poured another £76 million into funding to tackle the issue; albeit less than half of what Charities were asking for.
There are plenty of news reports in the British news media of ‘Domestic Abuse’ soaring and doubling etc., but in delving deeper the actual figures being reported by the Charity Refuge, and by the Police, is closer to 25% increase (so I guess the true figure is somewhere between the two extremes being reported!); albeit, crime in general in the UK has fallen by 28% since the lockdown in March.
From the date of the lockdown on the 23rd March until mid-April in the UK, the rise in Domestic Abuse was a major issue; but since then charities, local governments and the police have been working together to offer support and advice to victims of ‘Domestic Abuse’ e.g. Local Governments have prioritised housing for domestic abuse victims, and hotels have offered hotel accommodation at cost.
FYI: Under British Law (which dates back over a century) Local Governments have a ‘Legal Obligation’ to provide ‘Social Housing’ (Council Houses) to the homeless; it doesn’t prevent people being homeless and sleeping rough on the streets, but generally those who do sleep rough on the streets tend to be those who refuse help e.g. drug addicts, alcoholics and the mentally ill etc. (a simplistic explanation, just to give a quick overview).
To meet their legal obligation of housing the homeless in Britain, Local Governments (Local Authorities aka Councils) build and maintain ‘Social Housing’ (Council Houses), then anyone who is homeless, who is housed in a Council House, who can’t afford to pay the rent, and local taxes (rates) e.g. unemployed or on a low income, are entitled to rent and rate rebates and other welfare benefits e.g. the Government pays their rent and rates for them etc.
However, in the 1980’s Margaret Thatcher (Conservative Prime Minister) changed the law, so that since then anyone living in a Council House now has the legal right to buy that house from the local government at market price, less all the rent they paid to-date e.g. benefits anyone originally housed in a Council House because they couldn’t afford private renting, but have since bettered themselves by getting a good job.
This change in the law has led to over half the Council Housing stock ending up in the ‘private housing market, and it makes it harder for local governments to meet their legal obligation of housing the homeless because they are now forever having to build new Council Houses to maintain their housing stock. Consequently, when people do become homeless, and they seek help from their local government, they are often put into temporary accommodation (including hotels) until a Council House becomes available for them; and statistically are recorded as ‘homeless’ while living in temporary accommodation.
Albeit, we benefitted from this change in the law in the 1980’s because although when we first married we bought a two bedroom terraced house, when a decade later we decided to move up the housing ladder to a three bedroom semi-detached we purchased an ex-council house, because at the time there was still a 'Social' stigma attached to living in an ex-council house, which supressed the market price, so we saved about 10% on the price of buying a larger house by buying an ex-council house. The ex-council house we bought (well-built with a large garden) was one of the first council houses built in Bristol, built in the 1930’s during the ‘Great Depression’ when homelessness was high due to the high levels of unemployment at the time.
One policy the Government was swift on at the start of the lockdown was to remove the homeless sleeping rough on the streets, off the streets and into temporary accommodation; most predominantly hotels. On the day of the lockdown, on the 23rd March, the announcement of the lockdown was not made until 8pm by Boris Johnson (with immediate effect, no warning). At that time, my son was in the city centre doing photography, so he was totally unaware that Britain had gone into lockdown, but he guessed something was happing because the police were out in force, along with local government officials rounding up all the homeless rough street sleepers (not that we have many in Bristol) and taking them to one of the local hotels; so rather than hanging around, he came straight back home to find out what was going on.
The concept of getting all the homeless off the streets of Britain, which the Government completed within the first three weeks of the lockdown, was to help to slow down the spread of the virus.
‘Family Quality Time’, in the evening in front of the TV, is a practice we had, even before the lockdown; because although my wife and I are both retired, it is one time of the day that all the family can be together e.g. even during normal times I’m usually out in the Garden or down in my workshop for most of the day, and my wife is either spending her time doing genealogy or sewing etc.
It’s interesting you should mention ‘homeworking’. It’s a topic I discussed at length with an American contact who lives in New York, and his view was similar to yours e.g. that he could never see American employers ever wanting people to work from home; reasons he quoted was a ‘lack of trust and lack of control etc.
However, flexible working has become increasingly common in the UK ever since its first introduction in 1974, and homeworking has been on the increase ever since we’ve had good Internet; so much so that in 2014 the Conservative Government introduced a new Law that gives ‘ALL’ employees the ‘Legal Right’ to request flexible working from their employer.
Consequently, by last year 12% of the British workforce were working from home; in fact for the last five years before I took early retirement I was working from home 3 days a week, and going into the office for just two days.
Currently, since the lockdown in the UK on the 23rd March, the percentage of the British workforce working from home has increased from 12% to 44%.
I know how sceptical American Companies have been about homeworking from my American contact; but in contrast, you might find the attitudes of British employers towards flexible working interesting (and perhaps encouraging) in these two videos:-
• Creating a flexible working culture at John Lewis Partnership (Retailer) and Ford UK (Car Manufacturer): https://youtu.be/2Qs0EL6JWD0
• A new work culture - flexibility working in The Virgin Group UK: https://youtu.be/V67nDvfNQV0
I also have not been restricted in any way by NJ's lockdown. And as a result of NJ people obeying these safety regulations, the numbers of infected and dying in NJ seems now to be slowly creeping downward.
That's good to hear, lets hope it stays that way.
Thanks for your feedback Ewent on Trump’s falling popularity; it comes as no great surprise considering how ‘insane’ Trump looks from across the pond.
Yep, the British Government ‘should know better’ in tackling epidemics as we’ve been preparing for it since 2009 e.g. SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) set up as a UK Government advisory body by the Labour (Socialist), and consisting of over 50 scientific and medical experts.
We also have Porton Down Science Park in Wiltshire; a top secret Government research and development laboratory set up by the UK Government during the 1st world war. It was Porton Down who recently verified that the covid-19 antibody test kit developed for the NHS by Sweden is 100% accurate and doesn’t give ‘false positive’ results.
Inside Porton Down (UK Government Secret Lab): https://youtu.be/E23KBPd6iHY
And the NHS (National Health Service) works in partnership with Universities throughout the UK for R&D (Research & Development).
Also, the British Government has comprehensive ‘Disaster Recovery’ strategy in the event of a ‘national crisis’. I was a volunteer in one of the ‘Disaster Recovery’ teams in the civil service before I took early retirement; so had a good opportunity to understand and appreciate it from the inside.
And UK Government Departments operate in accordance with PRINCE2 (Project Management).
Nevertheless, in spite of all our preparation and readiness, our Prime Minister (Boris Johnson) didn’t act decisively enough in the early days of the epidemic, and by his dithering, delayed putting the UK into lockdown by over a week with disastrous results e.g. the UK becoming the worst affected country in Europe due to delayed action right at the start of the epidemic.
However, since the lockdown the British Government has acted responsibly, and has used all the tools at its disposal to combat the epidemic; and now, as both new cases and the death rate are falling the British Government is easing up on the restriction with caution (being far more cautious than the USA).
Our British form of government, which your Constitution is base on, has its roots in the Magna Carta, signed by King John on 15th June in 1215.
Magna Carta and the emergence of Parliament (1215): https://youtu.be/4qj2vpp9Wf4
Yep, the mentality and ignorance of the ‘anti lockdown protesters’ in the USA is beyond belief; and their actions so counterproductive; it’s good to hear New Yorkers are taking a far more mature attitude than some in other States.The reason people in NY and NJ will never allow those kind of armed protesters is common sense. In 1993, there was the first terrorist attack on a US embassy building. This was followed by another attack on the British Embassy in NY.
By the time 9'/11 happened, NY and its neighboring states are now always on high alert.
This is something none of the red states have had to deal with.
My recollection of that awful day on 9/11 still brings me to tears. It was and remains the most horrific experience of my life.
I was not in NY but many of my neighbors worked in both towers. Some never came home.
Sadly so many of them were young parents with toddlers For almost 2 months the sight of the smoke from across the bay reminded us that we must never again allow anyone the right to threaten, intimidate or shove guns in our faces.
One man who worked in Tower One and barely escaped worked as an accountant across the hall after his business leased an office when theirs was incinerated. He never spoke and walked down the halls like a zombie.
These are things those Boogaloo Bois have never had to witness. But how their families see their marching in the streets armed with semi automatics and do not realize they are encouraging domestic terrorism, speaks volumes about their lack of parenting.
One of these morons beat up a store clerk because the store's policy was that masks were the rule.
The moron who did this claims he was using "martial law. I'm only glad he lives in a red state. If he pulled that here in NJ or NY, he'd get a prison sentence for deadly assault.It’s refreshing to hear from an American who’s so anti-gun. Gun ownership is illegal in the UK; even being in possession of a knife in public is a criminal offence that attracts a maximum sentence of 7 years prison. So across the pond, in Britain, we find it very bizarre, and beyond belief, that Americans are so protective, and sensitive, about their legal ‘rights’ to carry a gun under the American Constitution!
My view (being British) is that Amendment 2 is ‘only’ an Amendment. It’s not as if it’s the ‘original’ Constitution itself; and although it may have served its purpose at the time, it’s an Amendment that’s out-dated. Britain doesn’t have a ‘written’ Constitution, our Constitution (which is based on the Magna Carta of 1215) is unwritten, and is constantly evolving to keep up with the times. Albeit, with having an unwritten Constitution it makes it difficult for Governments to know exactly what the Constitution is, so it keeps the Courts busy whenever there’s a dispute over what is Constitutional!
One fundamental difference between British and American law is that in America it is perfectly legal for a homeowner to kill someone with a gun in their home as ‘self-defence’; whereas in the UK, the law is that you can only use ‘reasonable force’ in self-defence, and using a gun is not considered ‘reasonable force’; so in Britain, defending yourself with a gun in your own home is classified as murder.
Our worst experience with terrorism in Britain, which I remember well (as the IRA periodically made terrorist attacks in England), was the ‘Troubles’ in Northern Ireland between 1968 and 1998, when during that period more than 3,500 people were killed in the conflict, of whom 52% were civilians, 32% were the British Military and 16% were terrorist members from both sides of the conflict.
Fortunately Sinn Fein, the political wing of the IRA terrorists (Freedom Fighters) fighting for Irish Reunification signed a ‘Peace Treaty’ with the British Government in 1999, where the political wings from both sides of the conflict now ‘Power Share’ in the Northern Ireland Government.
The Peace Treaty (The Good Friday Agreement) since 1999 has held an uneasy peace in Northern Ireland; albeit that ‘Peace Treaty’ is currently under threat because of Brexit.I understand that in the western most rural states where it is necessary to protect livestock and family from dangerous animals guns may be the only answer.
Although, I must say I am not even so sure about that. When I spent 2 weeks in Alberta and British Columbia, I was astounded at how well Canadians learned to adapt humans to the heavily forested areas they live in.
At one point as we were driving along the Rockies toward Field BC, we stopped to have lunch we'd purchased before leaving the Diamond Buffalo Ranch in Sundre.
We parked at one of the roadside stops and I noticed there was a strange looking top on the large trash can. I asked my Canadian friend what it was and he said, it was a "bear proof" lid.
So here's me a farmer's daughter from Central NJ who has never seen a bear in her life amazed at the blase attitude.
My friend reminded me that bears have a right to exist and so Canada just makes sure no trash is left lying about and those lids can only be used by humans with opposible thumbs. Ask me how ignorant I felt.
I think if Trump is re-elected I will leave the US for the UK. I would love to live in the Cotswolds or Northumberland.
I've always favored all things British. I so admire how well ordered British minds are.Thanks for your feedback, I lived in the Cotswolds as a kid, a small village called Uley; and we occasionally make day trips to the Cotswolds as its only 25 miles from Bristol, where I now live. My maternal ancestors also happened to settle in the Uley area of the Cotswolds following the Norman Invasion in 1066, until the mid-19th century when they re-settled in Bristol.
The Cotswolds is most certainly one of the many beautiful places in Britain.
Uley (The village in the Cotswolds where I lived as a kid): https://youtu.be/NtO4QyXlECM
Please allow me to make some comments on Russia. Half of my family is Russian, so i have close contact and communication to relatives, friends and business partners in Russia.
By now, Russia has rising numbers of infected, only topped by the US. But death rate is remarkeably low compared to the US. Roughly 6% of the US numbers/ per capita. How come?
Is it organisation and management, quick and appropriate response? No, it is the usual "prekasy", often contradictory directives i have seen many times in Russia. With heavy support by modern IT, in the cities you need to get a QR-code badge to be allowed on the streets. What will old babushkas do without internet and smartphone?
So - what explains the difference in fatality rate? For some weeks rumors are out that it has to do with compulsory viccination programs in Russia. That goes many years back to Soviet times. Mandatory multiple vaccinations from early childhood seem to have impact on the fatality rate.
So i found this link: https://theprint.in/opinion/low-death-r … ia/422013/
(Apparently an Indian Webpage, certainly not mainstream, but at least in English)
In addition to the information provided in the link, i had a deeper look at the German Corona data. Until 1990 Germany was divided and because former GDR was best friend with the Soviet Union, the GDR had also adopted this compulsory vaccination program. Guess what:
The 5 east German states have a fatality rate per capita of less than 1/3 compared to west German states, and that is already fairly low.
I believe this is something worth to be investigated further.
As an old professor used to say about numbers and statistics: If you sit with one half of your ass on the oven and with the other half on an ice block, median temperature may be comfortable, but ...
Median values are good, but sometimes it is worth looking at the "ice block" and learn.Wow, thanks Chris.
I’d noticed the recent sudden dramatic rise in infections in Russia, and put it down to a combination of Russia being plagued with the virus much later than Europe (like the black death first swept across Europe before it reached Russia in the 13th century) e.g. with there being several weeks’ time lag between infection and deaths, that Russia is only at the start of the curve, and that the dramatic rise in deaths has yet to come; and deaths in Russia going unreported as being covid-19.
Therefore, if death rates in Russia remain low by the end of May your supposition is something worth bearing in mind.Arthur, i don´t think the Covid19 deaths are un- or underreported in Russia.
Same as in the US, this Corona mess is highly politicized. There is a fight for power going on between Moscow mayor Sobyanin and the administration around Mishustin and Putin. As Moscow accounts for roughly half of the infection numbers, Moscow mayor is accused for overcounting Corona to harm Putin and his administration. There is checking and rechecking and i think they are all quite careful with numbers.
After this Corona pandemic is under control, we shall probably see that former Comecon countries, former influence zone of the Soviet Union will have significantly lower fatality rate than Western world. Just speculating.Thanks for the feedback; it will be interesting to see how it pans out.
Your post proves why in my high school days, my favorite authors were Russians. My uncle also was Russian. I don't judge all Russians as I would Putin and the Moscovites.
One of the things I admire most about the non Moscovite Russians is their spirit.
Russian history is rife with revolutions as you know. The US? Not so much. Perhaps, it is that Russian spirit that has forced many changes since the days of the Czars.I’ve met plenty of Chinese people in Britain, one family lives just a couple of doors up from us; and they are very nice people, very pro-western. However, I’ve only ever met one Russian in person, and listening to her was very educational and enlightening; in a positive way.
Same here happening countries read w.h.o report or my blog https://www.healthcareum.online
Over time you see that the US, Chili, Brazil are doing worse and worse. Both countries have a leader who denied the virus and did not act upon it. Not setting an example as wearing a facemask or social distancing. Not believing in science. That's a sad thing.
Do you really believe that Trump's bad example on face masks convinced millions of people to not wear one? Convinced them to gather in groups of thousands to party, protest and riot without a care in the world?
When small businesses opened up in violation of "guidelines" was it because Trump didn't wear a mask or because they were going broke?
Or did these things take place without ever considering whether Trump wore a mask in public or not?Do you think it is a coincidence that in both countries Brazil and the US, where their leaders trivialised COVID and did not set an example, are worst off?
I bet lots of hardcore Trump supporters are not wearing facemasks because the President isn’t doing either. You can read it on Hubpages yourself.It seems you are under the impression President Trump controlled any of the States mandates on COVID. He did not. It was up to each Governor to come up with what precautions they wanted to be enforced. They did ask the Federal Government for things they needed, and all was supplied as quickly as possible. I realize our opinions differ in regard to how we feel the crisis was handled. However, I must offer my opinion on whether or not Trump setting an example really matters.
It was clear Trump made up his mind from very early he was not going to wear a mask. he gave his reasoning over and over why he was not wearing a mask. No one seems to speak about that. They go to the negative without considering why he chose not to wear a mask.
He certainly is a man that may lean too far toward what he believes common sense. He certainly did not panic over the virus. he did say on many occasions it's a horrible China virus, but it will go away. In reality, he is being very truthful. It is horrible but it will go away. He listened to those that he felt were giving good solid information on the virus, he acted accordingly, as things did progress he took every measure to control the virus, and rebuild a National stockpile that was depleted.
One could say he should have known the stockpile was depleted. This could be said, he trusted the CDC to do their job, they did not...
I am weary of many putting blame on the president. He has done a good job. I would have hated to see what our previous two presidents would have done.
If you want to direct blame, have a good look at the Governors. They refused his advice, his help, yet now they make attempt to blame him for their very poor plans. The president was ready with everything these Governors asked for, and as quickly as humanly possible.
The testing was slow, and once again this was due to the poor action of the CDC getting the virus information needed to work on testing for an unknown virus. Tests needed to be researched and developed. Not sure where people think any Government has tests developed for a virus that was not yet born... It's ridiculous, Here is an article that might shed some light on what truly went wrong when it came to testing. Yes, the ball was dropped, and it was dropped by the CDC...
https://singularityhub.com/2020/03/18/o … ronavirus/I know and understand that Trump does not control the States mandates on COVID; that’s the same throughout the world e.g. Australia, Germany and UK etc.
However, where the USA does differ from countries like Australia, Germany and the UK is that unlike the USA, in these countries:-
• The different States (in the case of the UK Nations) work in co-operation with the National Government to fight a common enemy e.g. Covid-19, and
• The different political parties work together to fight a common enemy e.g. Covid-19.
In the UK Boris Johnson (British Conservative Prime Minster) sets the Regulations for England, in the fight against Covid-19, and the Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Ireland Governments have set similar Regulations for their own Nation (taking the lead from England) but with variations.
For examples:-
UK POLICY on FACEMASKS:
• England: Compulsory on public transport from 15th June, and in shops from 24th July.
• Scotland: Compulsory on public transport from 22nd June, and in shops from 10th July.
• Wales: Advisory Only.
• Northern Ireland: Compulsory on public transport from 10th July.
PUBS:-
• England: Opened on 4th July.
• Scotland: Opened on 15th July.
• Wales: To open on 3rd August.
• Northern Ireland: Opened on 3rd July, only if the pub also sells food.
Considering that Scotland and Wales are left-wing ‘Socialist’ Governments, it’s been amazing, and quite refreshing, in how supportive they’ve been in working together with the right-wing Conservative UK Government to fight the common enemy; Covid-19.
Trump may not have control over the States, but he does have ‘influence’, and as Leader of the Federal Government he should take the pandemic seriously, set a good example, and send out the ‘right’ messages; but he doesn’t. He’s in denial about the pandemic, sets a bad example by politicising ‘facemasks’, and sends out the ‘wrong’ messages by undermining the efforts of the CDC and using the pandemic as another excuse to attack China.
Where you say that “he did not panic over the virus” and that “it will go away” is the nub of the problem. He hasn’t taken the pandemic serious; he’s more interested in reopening the economy as quickly and as fully as possible, regardless to how many deaths of American citizens it causes in the process. And without taking the proper measures the virus will NOT go away; as is evident by the way the pandemic is now spiralling out of control in the USA.
Far from going away, the USA is now facing record numbers of infections (Now averaging over 65,000 new cases per day); and deaths are rapidly increasing again e.g. 997 people died of Covid-19 in the USA yesterday (15th July). Current projections are that around a quarter of million Americans will have died of Covid-19 related deaths by the end of October.
The Pandemic will not go away unless it’s taken seriously by the Federal and State Governments, and stiff measures are introduced across the whole of the USA to combat the pandemic; just as National and State Governments in Australia, Germany and the UK work together to co-ordinate their efforts to combat the spread of the virus. But unfortunately Trump is unwilling to be the Leader that America needs right now, to fight the pandemic, so the pandemic in the USA is out of control.
As regards testing; Boris screwed up the testing in the UK at first, and it took months for him to get it on track; and even now it’s not perfect but it is working more or less as it should. It wasn’t for the lack of trying; it was just incompetence on his part. So I do understand the difficulties in organising an effective testing programme, but you can’t tell me that Trump is supportive in the testing programme because on numerous occasions I’ve heard him declare that there’s too much testing, in his belief that the more people you test the more people you find infected. What he doesn’t understand is it’s not just the number of tests done, it’s the percentage of people tested who test positive that’s important. If that percentage is too high then you have a serious problem e.g. in the USA the percentage of those tested, who test positive, is now in excess of 20%; in the UK it’s less than 0.5%.
And it’s not just the testing, the ‘contact tracers’ need to know who’s infected so that they can find out who they’ve been in contact with, so that they can be contacted, isolated and tested. In the UK we now have 27,000 contact tracers. As of 18th June, there were only 37,110 contact tracers; which is inadequate, a minimum of 100,000 would be required in the USA; probably at least three times that number now, that the virus is out of control.Trump is besides being the president, an influencer. And people copy his actions. If Trump is not taking the pandemic seriously, they won't. And if he is not wearing a facemask in public, many of his followers won't do so either. This is the irresponsible behaviour of an influencer. Which leads to the irresponsible behaviour of his followers.
I'm not talking about politics. Or a countrywide organisation of the fight against this pandemic. I'm simply addressing the behaviour of a statesman. Somebody who should set an example and should be above the parties in times of emergencies.
You see people on HubPages proudly bragging about not wearing a facemask. Because that's the patriotic thing to do blablabla.
And about the COVID cases. It's still rising. A simple Google statistic will show you. I'm sorry.
As I stated there has been an uptick in cases mainly in three states out of 50. The death toll in the majority of our states is very low. Most in single digits each day.
We have different views on what we respect in Government representatives I prefer someone that gives an opinion and is unafraid to do so... Just never cared for anything that appears phony. In my opinion, these kinds of politicians give the crowd what they may want to hear, not what they need to hear. Seems many placate to promote groupthink. Just my opinion, as you can see I think out of the box. I can't stand to be placated.
I have said I do not wear a mask if I am able to use social distancing. I wear a mask if I am in a close contact situation. Science just does not support wearing a mask in most incidences. It is very close contact it does have some value in decreasing spread if worn by a person that is contagious. It also appears there is thought that droplets stay in the air in closed spaces for a period of time so at this point it's wise to wear a mask if one needs to be in a closed space for any length of time.
With the numbers so low in Michigan and if they hold another week, I will no longer wear a mask. If the death rate increases I will resume wearing a mask. I have no intension of wearing a mask if stats stay low. Just not going to adopt wearing a mask without a good reason."I prefer someone that gives an opinion and is unafraid to do so... "
Stalin had an opinion too and wasn't afraid to give it!
or as Keanu Reeves would phrase it:
I DON´T WANT AN OPINION. I WANT ROOMSERVICE!!!
COVID is a science debate. to beat COVID opinions go into the dustbin. As when you talk science, opinions don't matter. Only facts.
And if the president gives his opinion of using chlorine dioxide, then this is a dangerous opinion. As people will start to buy chlorine dioxide, because as said, Trump is an influencer. Opinions can kill, even if they are made with the best intentions.So obviously we have really different thought processes. We will have to agree to disagree.
I guess so.
But I definitely do agree with you that if you walk outside you don't need a mask. And it's only if you are close to somebody or inside that, you have to wear them.
I went recently to a concert and we had to go through a temperature check, clean our hands and wear a mask. And with three empty seats between each person. The concert was great, but this definitely should not be the future.It sounds as if they handled the concert in the very best way they could. I will share a story with you. The other day a friend and I got into a spat. She posted a comment on Facebook the gave a long version of how at her grandson's baseball game she was the only one in the stands that had a mask on, she said all were sitting close-talking laughing, and that it made her furious. I commented that many when they are outside even in a close situation just won't wear a mask. I told her I don't wear a mask as a rule outside unless I am in a situation of being close to someone, and that I practice distancing. She became very mad at me and told me I should follow the rules and that I am making myself dangerous to those around me.
Here is where it gets good... I asked her --- you do remember you asked me to come to meet you at the game, and she said yes.
I shared why I did not attend. I explained since the outbreak of the virus I have not attended anywhere I knew there would be a large crowd. I reminded her that she continued to have her hair stylist to her home, traveled, and never missed one of her grandchildren's games, even had dinner parties. I told her don't judge others, because she just has no room to do so. She was not happy with me. But later that evening called me and we made amends.
I explained it was not me that was a danger to others it was actually her, due to being around so many people almost daily, even with her mask on. I explained to her social distancing is the very best way to really not get the virus.
In the next weeks, I will watch the stats if I see a bit of a breather I will resume my life as normal, if not I will stay out of crowds, social distance, and wear a mask if I have to be in any close quarters with anyone. I won't let a virus rule my life, but I will be responsible if the virus is on the rise.
Being a nurse social distancing was part of my job if caring for isolation Pt. it has done me well for 20 some years. Hopefully, it will continue to work well with COCVID.
It won't be the future, we will get a vaccine and suitable meds to cut down on the problems the virus causes. It will take a bit of time, but it will come. Plus we have the chance of the virus fizzling in the future. We just need to take it as it comes for a bit. Hopefully, it will become a memory sooner rather than later.Thanks for that Sharlee, if everyone in the USA was as responsible as you in observing ‘social distancing’ sensibly, and wearing a mask when appropriate, then it would certainly help to reduce the spread of the virus there.
The UK went into ‘full’ lockdown on the 23rd March, which has been slowly eased (by small fortnightly steps) since the 1st June. So that as from last weekend (Saturday 11th July), apart from nightclubs and conference halls e.g. cinemas and theatres etc., the UK economy is now almost back to normal; subject to the strict social distancing rules and regulations on wearing masks.
Last Saturday (11th July) was the first time I’ve been out since the lockdown back in March. I haven’t needed to go out during the lockdown because we’ve had all our food and DIY supplies delivered; so there’s been no reason to go out shopping, and during the pandemic ‘socialising’ was highly restricted in the UK anyway e.g. grandparents prohibited from meeting grandchildren during most of the lockdown.
My venture out on Saturday was to take a 20 minute walk to my local bank; and while out I took the opportunity to film the local high street e.g. in normal times its buzzing with people, but even now with the shops reopened, the British people are still quite cautious in going out so the streets are still relatively quiet.
Kingswood, Bristol High Street Shops New Norm: Covid-19 Lockdown Eased UK: https://youtu.be/vVTBOoZAEtQThanks for sharing the story, which indeed shows a dilemma.
I completely agree with you there. What I notice around me is that there is a lot of ignorance about the function of a mask and how the virus spreads. I see a lot of people walking in the street. (mainly children and elderly people.) walking alone with a mask on. I think the education by the local government is important here. Just like proper sex education for example. Open, science-based, proper, and frank. Not advise based upon the "heard it through the grapevine" advise
Every city and village is effected differently and should act according to the local situation. To stop it the best is absolutely to avoid mass gatherings.
Still, I fear a bit for the future. Not for COVID, or other viruses. But I fear for the "temporary" rules and regulations that governments take. Like the idea for a COVID app for example. showing you who has or had COVID. (like without such an app you will not be allowed to enter a shopping center....just a scenario that could happen) An app like this is creating a "Big Brother is watching you" society. The question is, Is there any privacy left? Perhaps privacy is already a romantic idea of the past.I think the virus will be around for a time. It could fizzle but that is unlikely. I think it best to make the rules suit the areas and the outbreaks as they come, and most likely will come in waves. Sort of a auto-dial back system while we have to live with the virus. We can't close our communities for a year or more. Many areas in Michigan did not have even one case, while our cities had an abundance of cases.
IT's a fine line, but we need to walk it to get some normality back into our lives every chance we get. Michigan is trying the dial back method, and being split into regions. We had a bit of a breakout up north so many businesses got new rules. Bars were reclosed. I live near our biggest city, and we are doing well in our region (a suburb outside Detroit). The auto plants reopened a month ago, and have had very little problems.
We will soon be coming onto fall here, and we will have our yearly flu season start. Michigan always has high numbers during the yearly flu. I hope this year more will consider getting the flu shot.Yes, it's a balance. How many help and resources are you going to give to fight the virus. A lot of people will have huge problems or die because of a lack of capacity in hospitals. Thousands of women for instance won't have their yearly breast cancer check, with consequences for some... Drug edicts who can't be helped, domestic violence. Just a few things out of the top of my head.
You read the figures in the newspapers about number of deaths and infected people. But the damage is far bigger than these numbers. So many people are suddenly without a job. And the crisis has just begun.
I'm very lucky to live on the countryside in Spain, almost self-sufficient. But I have friends living in Valencia who had a hard time. And still have. Single mums, people in the music and dance industry.
Spain was/is hit hard (especially in the neglected care homes and homes for the elderly.) It's a society where personal space is smaller, it's much more physical than the Northern European countries like the UK and The Netherlands and Germany. This is great in normal times, but during an epidemy, it's disastrous behaviour.... Everybody is now very cautious. And that's good. Better safe than sorry.
But I hope that after a while we can hug again. As it's a grim society if we can't.I agree with all you stated. We have done our best to delete a virus, some have done better than others. Numbers are showing upticks in three of our states, and the overall death rate is slowing. It is time we realize this battle will take a while. many of us are just not willing to fold and are ready to cautiously move slowly back into a bit of normalcy. Some are so very scared, and that's Ok. Everyone should reenter their normal lives at their own pace. But, one thing is clear we must move on before this virus does damage that is unrepairable for many.
Sharlee, where you say “I think it best to make the rules suit the areas and the outbreaks as they come……” Yes definitely: But only once a ‘Nation’ has the pandemic under control (which is true for Michigan, but not true for the USA); then localised control of outbreaks is appropriate.
In this respect, now that the pandemic is under control across Europe, European countries have now switched to this localised approach to stamping out localised flare-ups (as they occur). This localised approach being called the ‘Whack-a-Mole’ policy.
In the UK, although the pandemic is currently well under control e.g. both new infections and deaths are low and decreasing by the week, there are nevertheless still over 100 local outbreaks of the virus which are swiftly stamped on by the Government to prevent further spread; as highlighted in the video below.
Over 100 local lockdowns a week in the UK in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic https://youtu.be/arrCgV0H1SUYes, seeing that we have three major states that are showing sizable spikes in cases and deaths it would be wise for those states to dial back. It seems odd that some of the states that really showed very low infection rates through the worst of the pandemic now are showing case increases, and continue to have a very low death rate. It just seems the virus has is spreading quickly to a younger adult, and they are tolerating the virus much better.
In Michigan, the crisis is being handled in Zones. The minute cases go up even just a bit, the mandates are put back in place quickly, and lifted when stats improve. Masks are mandated in Michigan to be worn when entering any business or closed building. Many businesses are only allowed a certain number in the building at a time. We still have Gyms, sports, casinos closed. Any event that would draw a crowd even if the outside has been canceled. One does not have to wear a mask outside unless you can't social distance. In my community, all stores and businesses enforce the mask rule.
The Governor did open the beaches, one must be 19 feet apart. it appears people are following that request at our metro beaches, due to having. park officers that do enforce the rule.
Yep Michigan has handled the pandemic well, and has been credited in doing so on the TV News.
However, we are still at odds in our opinion regarding your comment:-
“It seems odd that some of the states that really showed very low infection rates through the worst of the pandemic now are showing case increases, and continue to have a very low death rate. It just seems the virus has is spreading quickly to a younger adult, and they are tolerating the virus much better.”
It’s not odd; it was predicted by the experts: And it’s something I’ve given warnings about in these forums for the past two months.
The Guidance by WHO, which most countries (including the UK) followed, was for countries to:-
1. Wait for at least 14 consecutive days after the peak had been passed, where new infections and deaths constantly fell, before attempting to relax the lockdown.
2. After the 14 days, couple any easing of the restrictions on the lockdown with a programme of mass testing, where results are returned within 24 hours, to help the ‘contact tracers’ do their job, and
3. Have sufficient ‘contact tracers’ to stem the flow of any flare-up of infections due to the easing of the lockdown.
Countries who followed these three simple steps, including those who were badly hit by the virus e.g. Spain, Italy and the UK, have all now successfully come out the other side of the pandemic, and have largely reopened their economies again.
However, the USA did NOT follow these three simple steps. The USA started to ease the restrictions not 14 days after the peak had passed, but only 7 days (far too early). The USA, like the UK had numerous problems with mass testing initially. The UK has largely now sorted those problems out, but in many States in the USA, the test results are taking far too long to come back: Mainly because the USA never did get the pandemic under control, because it started to reopen its economy too soon. Also, as stated by the CDC the USA does not have enough ‘contract tracers’. For a country the size of the USA a minimum of 100,000 ‘contact tracers’ are required: As of 18th June, the USA only had 37,110 contact tracers; the UK (a much smaller country) has 27,000 contact tracers.
So in answer to your comment, the States that had low infection rates when New York was taking the brunt of the pandemic were just too arrogant, and reopened their economies far too soon, coupled with the fact that the young adults feel immune, and therefore didn’t ‘social distance’. Therefore, when the pubs reopened in those States it was a recipe for disaster.
I don’t know how you can say that the death rates in those Southern States are still very low, when over the last couple of weeks the death toll has doubled, with many hospitals at full capacity, and ICU units at full capacity in a number of hospitals in the Southern States.
Yes the virus has been spreading quickly to the younger adults, who are more tolerant to the virus, because it’s the younger adults who have been ignoring ‘social distancing’. But, if you’ve been following recent developments, the older generations are slowly beginning to become affected (the age groups more prone to death from the virus), because the younger adults are passing the virus onto their parents and grandparents. So you can be sure that in the Southern States, the death toll hasn’t reached its peak yet.
Also, it’s not just the three worst affected States; the virus is also rapidly increasing in most Southern and Western States, about 37 States in total. Albeit the current infections may still be relatively low in those other States, it is of concern because we all should know by now how quickly the virus can spread, once the rate of infection (The R Value) starts rising. So what you’ve seen in the three States in recent weeks could easily become the norm in the other Southern and Western States; and from there, cross contamination to the Northern States would be difficult to prevent.
So now isn’t the time to be complacent.
You may be pleased to hear that over the last couple of weeks Michigan and New York are two States that have been praised on the TV News for the way in which they’ve handled the Covid-19 pandemic.
For correctness, out of the 50 States, the infection rate is falling in ONLY 2 or 3 of those States; albeit it’s only currently just three States where infections are very high and out of control. However, that is no reason to be complacent because State boundaries is no barrier to the virus, and it is also highly infectious and can flare up quickly from just a few infected people.
One aspect of your viewpoint which I am having trouble in understanding is that you seem to talk about Michigan as if it was a country (separate from the rest of the USA), and that the Southern States is in another part of the world?
Where I live, in Bristol specifically, and the South West of England in general, largely escaped the pandemic e.g. the UK was placed into lockdown before the virus had a chance to spread to the South West in any great number. However, I’m not complacent because I don’t view the pandemic as a local issue, but as a ‘national’ issue; and we see in the UK and across Europe how rapidly the virus can spread from just ‘one’ infected person, if left unchecked and isn’t dealt with swiftly.
It’s because of the last point above, that what’s important isn’t just the percentage of people infected by also the rate of infection; the ‘R’ factor. The natural ‘R’ (rate of infection) of Covid-19 is ‘3’ e.g. every infected person will infect three other people, and those three people in turn will each infect three more people e.g. 9 infected people who will then go on and infect 27 people, 83; 243; 729; 2,187; 6,561; 19,683; 59,049; 177,147; half a million, 1.5 million; 5 million, and so on.
A prime example of the above is a farm in Herefordshire, England where from just one infected farm worker 73 of the 200 vegetable pickers quickly became infected with Covid-19. The UK Government put the farm into lockdown (quarantine) on the 12th July e.g. the 200 farm workers are now living in temporary accommodation (mobile homes) to isolate them from the rest of the UK, and food is being ferried into them. Since the 12th July (just 5 days) a further 20 of the 200 farm workers have now contracted the virus e.g. 93 of the 200 are now infected; and all within just weeks, which highlights how quickly just a few infected people can become many in such a short time period.
Coronavirus UK: Herefordshire farm in lockdown after 73 Covid-19 cases:
https://youtu.be/wPNxAbCItz4
That’s why although the percentage of infected people in the UK is extremely small compared to the USA e.g. less than 0.5% in the UK compared to over 10% in the USA, the UK Government is acting swiftly with tough measures to keep the rate of infection (‘R’) below ‘1’. It doesn’t matter how few people are infected, if the ‘R’ factor is above ‘1’ then the infection is on the increase (which is bad news), whereas if the ‘R’ factor is below ‘1’ then the infection is decreasing (which is good news). Currently the ‘R’ rate in the UK is between 0.7 and 0.9; whereas in the USA (as a whole) it’s obviously well above 1. And although Michigan is steady at the moment, there is the real risk that the virus will spread from the other States to Michigan; especially if for example people from Michigan visit Disney World in Florida, and bring back the infection from Florida. Yes, Disney World has taken good precautions (once you are inside the park), but many people from other States visiting Disney World are not going to just drive there, they are going to stop off in Florida itself (which is now highly infectious) for petrol, a meal in a restaurant, shopping, sightseeing, and maybe stay overnight in hotel accommodation etc.!!!!
As regards your comment to different view on what we respect in Government representatives: In normal times, yes, who we do and don’t support, and why, is a personal, political, choice.
However, during a crisis e.g. war, pandemics, natural disasters etc., then that is the time to put politics to one side and unite the nation in a common cause. That is what has happened in most countries around the world: For example in the UK ‘ALL’ the political parties have ‘united’ and given their full support to the Government, just as the British people have ‘united’ in their support for the UK Government in fighting the pandemic (regardless to politics). Whereas in the USA Trump has made the pandemic political and has divided the nation; which is counterproductive, and is costing lives.
Yes, Trump’s bad example on face masks has convinced millions of people to not wear one; in the USA facemasks has become politicised.
Trump has constantly downplayed the pandemic, often been in denial that there is an issue, and frequently sends wrong messages. So it’s no wonder that many of Trump’s supporters believe him and consequently don’t social distance and don’t wear masks in large enclosed spaces; prime examples being his rallies where masks were not mandatory and no attempt to social distance e.g. Tulsa rally on 20th June.
Governments, and Government Leaders, do have their followers, so the attitude of Governments and Government Leaders have towards the pandemic is going to have a profound effect on the attitude of their followers (especially the hard core followers). Plus, Governments and Government Leaders can sway public opinion by their presentation of a situation, and by their actions; even people who didn’t vote for that Government or Government Leader can be influenced by what messages the Government/Government Leader gives, and by the way those messages are presented.
Therefore, in countries where Governments and Government Leaders have taken the pandemic seriously, and issued ‘Advice’, ‘Guidance’, and ‘Regulations’ to help minimise the spread of the pandemic, the General Public at large have generally been supportive of their Governments/Government Leaders in the fight against Covid-19 (even if they didn’t vote for that Government). While, in the USA Trump has, by his words, attitude, and actions, consistently downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic; and by doing so, sends the wrong message to the American Public, with the consequent that many Americans themselves don’t take the pandemic serious.
Trump didn’t discourage the protests by the far right against the economic lockdown; but he certainly didn’t like the BLM protests.
I wasn’t aware that small businesses in the USA did open up (in any great number) in the USA in violation of ‘Guidelines’! Although I can understand the frustration faced by small businesses, especially when they are at risk of going broke; a problem that’s not just unique to the USA, but one which has been faced by small businesses worldwide. However, in most countries the public and businesses have buckled-down and accepted what must be done to fight the pandemic e.g. in most cases a ‘full economic shutdown’ of all non-essential business, for as long as it takes.
In the UK Pubs & Restaurants (along with ALL ‘non-essential’ businesses) were closed by the Government on the 23rd March, and were only allowed to reopen again in England on the 4th July (almost four months out of business); and then only allowed to reopen provided they adhere to the strict Guidelines laid-down by the Government, which includes taking contact details of every customer at the door, as they enter the premises. Of the 60,000 pubs in England, three had to close again within 48 hours because people who had tested positive for covid-19 had visited those pubs; so those three pubs had to close, and the lists of customers contacts given to the ‘contact tracers’ so that they can do their job.
Three pubs shut due to coronavirus cases just 48 hours after reopening on 4th July: https://youtu.be/S40vU7Nng1E
In the UK Retail shops were allowed to re-open again on the 15th June; just over two-weeks before the pubs were allowed to reopen. Although, even now nightclubs are still not allowed to reopen in the UK, and no indication as to when they may be allowed to open again; many will go bankrupt, but you don’t the big outcry from small businesses like the pubs and nightclubs in the UK, because although it’s their livelihood they do know that the action the British Government has taken is necessary. Nightclubs is one area where I do have personal knowledge in that, as a professional photographer, it’s where my son earns the bulk of his income, so he is in close regular contact with the owners of the nightclubs in Bristol where he normally works: Albeit, they are to remain closed until the Government says otherwise, whenever that maybe?
The point is, to effectively combat the virus, a country needs a strong Government Leadership to fight the pandemic; and Trump is not providing that strong Leadership in support of fighting the pandemic.
Ongoing pandemic for half a year:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir … -1.5057041
Not much to add...Found this jewel in a German newspaper. Headline: Embarrassing..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geOXkVWBc58
(Minute 45..) Apparently he really said this about the Spanish flu. If all people would have known, nobody needed to start WWII. All soldiers were sick. And .. Spanish flu in 1917???
Unbelieveable. How come a president in office is so little educated? And he openly displays his ignorance in public. No wonder why the the US is in this dire situation. Even if he would listen to experts, he wouldn´t know how to interpret the advice.
The WH staff can´t be that dumb. So he must have ranted without script.Yep I know; it’s unbelievable, and it’s amazing how many tens of millions of Americans actually believe what he says! Satire script writers couldn’t do a better job, because the whole situation in the USA is stranger than ‘fiction’.
When you mention government, I'm sure you had the USA government specific in mind. Now, how about Rivers States government right here in Nigeria? Generally, covid-19 statistic in Nigeria is mingle with misinformation initially. Nigeria could not said to be well prepared pre-pandemic. When the very first.Italian strike, all his contacts initially disappeared but were later round up. Is it like that there in USA? The markets were beginning to open up full circle latest last week!
This forum was intended for each person to reflect on their own Government, and invariably make comparisons between how their own Government is handling the pandemic with other Governments, which often includes the USA as a show case of what not to do.
And so we are almost a half year on the road with COVID-19.
A second wave is starting and you I have the idea that lot's of countries have prepared themselves terribly for the second wave. No excuses, you saw it comming for months.
Testing, testing testing. It is one of the most important things. As testing means freedom. The more you know the more you can do. If you know your test is negative you feel more sure about yourself and what you can do. If you are positive (and there are a lot of asymptomatic cases) then you know where you're at and can act accordingly.
The Netherlands made huge mistakes.
The biggest one is that all the testing labs in The Netherlands are small but highly qualified labs. They can do the tests perfectly, but only in small quantities. Which is fine in normal circumstances. But not during a huge epidemic like today.
Germany has huge and fast testing labs that can handle bulks of testing. And they offered help to The Netherlands in April. But the Dutch government wanted to protect the small testing labs and refused. In other words, thousands of people that should be tested never got the chance. And testing on a large scale means freedom of movement and business. It saves lives and stress.
The COVID-19 cases in The Netherlands are rising rapidly now during the second wave. Something that could have been prevented if the government had accepted the help from German companies at the beginning of this year.
It shows that politics and protectionism are chosen in The Netherlands above the welfare and freedom of the people.Yep, since almost dying from Covid-19 in April Boris Johnson, our Prime Minister, in the UK has been committed to mass testing, and ‘contract tracers’ as an ultimate goal, until such time that a vaccine is rolled out to the mass populous.
He hasn’t made a very good job of it, because of logistic and other reasons, but achievements have been made, and steady progress is being made. The UK Government’s target in May was for 100,000 tests a day, and to steadily increase testing capacity over time; the target being 200,000 by June, 300,000 by September and half a million tests a day by October.
By and large the UK Government had been meeting its target (with a struggle) e.g. up until the end of August (up to 300,000 tests a day) 97.5% of tests results were being returned within 24 hours. However, from September, because of a dramatic increase in demand for testing from the public, it’s temporally slipped to just 33% of tests results being returned with 24 hours; an embarrassment which the Government is working on to resolve, and which should be rectified by the end of September.
Boris’s goal is to use the New ‘Saliva’ 20 minute tests (which have a reliability of 98% accuracy) as an ultimate tool to be able to test 10 million people a day (a third of the UK population each day); so as to give the ‘Freedom’ that you mention above. Currently, there are three separate trials (pilot schemes) being tried in three different towns in England, using three different 20-minute saliva test kits (all manufactured in the UK); with the intention that one of kits (if the trials are successful) to be rolled out nationwide; possibly early next year.
Below: In full: Boris Johnson's coronavirus address to the nation (if only Trump addressed the American people in a similar manner then perhaps there would be fewer deaths in the USA?)
https://youtu.be/uBtK538BAGUThis is indeed hot welcome news. I mean the 20 minutes saliva test. Formerly, Nigeria, was a friend of Great Britain, and practice the Parliamentary system of government. But Nigeria, derailed to adopting and experimenting with the American presidential system of government. America and other western nations has seen that Nigerian politicians seems to abuse the system with impunity. Nigeria could not at present be proud to have had ask any economic package from the West. Much less health package for covid-19. It was known that President Muhammadu Buhari went to China for $100 milllion loan, years ago for rail development. But during the covid crisis, some Chinese medical personnels were thought to have been in Nigeria to offer help. But to what extend, it is not fully underrtand...
No democracy is perfect, but certainly I think many of the EU countries are moving in the right direction with ‘Proportional Representation; the UK at a much slower pace e.g. we now have Proportional Representation for the Mayoral Elections in the UK (one small step….).
Also, in Scotland and Wales the voting age has been reduced to 16, giving the younger generation a voice in politics; and their future.But does the presidential system of government practice the "proportional representative"? Great Britain has a flexible constitution, an unwritten constitution where changes is obtainable within the desired peroid.
Across Europe, and in the UK, we have a multi-party system e.g. many different political parties. For example in the UK the major political parties include:-
• Conservative (right wing Capitalist)
• Labour (left wing Socialist)
• Liberal Democrats (Centralist)
• SNP (Scottish National Party) (Socialists)
• Plaid Cymru (Socialists)
• Green Party (left wing)
So in the UK Proportional Representation would be far more democratic, as it is across the rest of Europe. Unfortunately the USA is just a two party system (Republican or Democrats) so it’s just an either or choice; so Presidential or not, in a two party system like the USA proportional representation would seem pointless.
Yes the UK has an ‘unwritten’ Constitution, which is forever evolving. Why Americans are so sensitive about keeping their Constitution set in stone (rather than allowing it to evolve with the times) e.g. ‘Amendment 2’, I shall never understand."Why Americans are so sensitive about keeping their Constitution set in stone (rather than allowing it to evolve with the times) e.g. ‘Amendment 2’, I shall never understand."
Perhaps Americans view your constantly changing base (your "constitution"), subject to the whims of any person or party currently in power, as simply twisting with any small breeze that happens They prefer a solid base, relatively unchanging but with the ability to modify to meet truly changed circumstances rather than just the hot air from the current politician.
Our current uproar over the Supreme Court nominee is a case in point; when the current president can change the legal system, and thereby the entire thrust of important philosophies and events, simply because they are the one in power for the moment, it brings with it a great deal of ire, and changes entire industries for no more reason than that a single office is held by a different party now. Tomorrow it will swing back, but for the next few years everything must change - doesn't make a lot of sense in that light.Maybe the British Constitution is too fluid; and the USA Constitution too rigid?
Touching on a touchy subject for Americans I was thinking more along the line of Americans defending the right to own guns because it’s in the Constitution, rather than focusing on whether in this day and age gun ownership is morally right e.g. at the time it was added to the American Constitution there was good cause to own guns, but in this day and age I would have hoped times would have changed, and that America was more civilised and less violent? I know (from previous heated discussions) I’m giving the European perspective, and the American perspective is different.
As regards the Supreme Court nominee, it’s something which I haven’t yet got my head around e.g. the USA system is so alien to the British system that it’s confusing to me, I’ve yet to understand its complexities; but from across the pond it does come across as ‘dirty politics’!!!
As regards the British Constitution, which has its roots in the Magna Carta of 1215; it may be unwritten, which makes it difficult for anyone to fully understand it, including Governments. However, generally, most people know and understand the basics, and contrary to how it seems, the British Constitution is NOT “subject to the whims of any person or party currently in power”, and they can’t “simply twist it with any small breeze that happens”.
In the first instance, the person with the most authority in interpreting the British Constitution is the Speaker of the House of Commons. The Speaker being an MP elected by all MPs in the House of Commons, and once selected he/she has a duty (under the Constitution) to be politically neutral.
Ultimately, in the event of a dispute over whether something is Constitutional or not, then the Supreme Court has the final say. Judges of the Supreme Court in the UK are appointed by The Queen by the issue of letters patent, on the advice of the Prime Minister, to whom a name is recommended by a special selection commission. Select Committees in the UK are made up of a representation of the House of Commons (MPs from all political parties). So ultimately it’s the House of Commons who select the Supreme Court Judges. There are 12 Judges, but to avoid a tie, all cases are heard by a panel containing an odd number of justices, usually 5 (a maximum of 11 on large cases).
A prime example of how the British Constitution can evolve is the ‘Salisbury Convention’ of 1948.
In the aftermath of the 2nd world war Labour (Socialists) won a landslide victory in the 1945 General Election. At that time the House of Lords was made up predominantly of Conservative (Capitalist) Peers.
Therefore, in 1948, when the Socialist Labour Government came to pushing its Socialist programme through Parliament e.g. the Welfare State and the NHS the unelected Peers in the House of Lords, being predominately Conservatives naturally and vehemently opposed those Socialist reforms.
However, Lord Salisbury (Conservative), the Leader of the House of Lords, in his wisdom, argued with his fellow peers that it would be immoral for an ‘unelected’ upper chamber to block the ‘will of the people’; and as the ‘will of the people’ was for ‘Socialist Reforms’ e.g. it was in the election manifesto of the Labour Party, then the House of Lords should allow the ‘will of the people’.
Consequently the ‘Salisbury Convention’ has since 1948 become part of the British Constitution e.g. the unelected House of Lords are constitutionally bound to pass any Legislation by the elected Government in the House of Commons; provided that Legislation is based on the Government’s Election Manifesto. Anything the elected Government tries to push through Parliament which was not in their Election Manifesto is fair game in the House of Lords e.g. the House of Lords can reject it (block it) if they so wish.Nathanille, do you actually mean that if any will of the people is not in the political party elected manifesto, the unelect upper house play ball with it? Thanks. Anyway, the Magna Carta and the British Constitution are interesting study.
For Clarity:-
• The Lower Chamber (House of Commons) is elected by the people.
• The Upper Chamber (House of Lords) is unelected.
The House of Lords is made up of 661 life peers, 92 hereditary peers and 26 Bishops; none elected, and all sit in the House of Lords for life.
The House of Commons is made up of 650 elected MPs (Members of Parliament); all elected by the people in the General Election.
For Legislation to become Law it has to be approved by both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
During a General Election each political party set out its policies in their Election Manifesto (for all to read). The winning party in a General Election e.g. the political party who wins the most seats (if they win the majority of seats) form the Government in the House of Commons.
It’s under these circumstances that what’s in the Election Manifesto of the winning party is considered to be ‘The Will of The People”. Therefore, under the Salisbury Convention the House of Lords (not elected, but appointed for life) respect the ‘Will of The People’ e.g. they will not block Legislation by the elected party provided that Legislation was policy published in the elected party’s Election Manifesto.
So in answer to your question: Yes the unelected Lords (in the House of Lords) do play ball, and do not block what’s in the ‘Election Manifesto’ of the political Party in the House of Commons who wins the General Election, because that is seen as ‘The Will of the People’.Every aspect of the question is quit clear. Still very interesting and enlightening. Initially in the Nigerian Parliamentary, the Upper House is appointed by the Governor-General from local establish chiefs. The Lower House is elected via, general election. I like the Parliamentary system as it best suits the Nigerian climate. Seriously, unless the 'immunity' clause is remove from the Nigerian Constitution, corruption will still win the day.
Yes, the ‘immunity clause’ in the Nigerian Constitution does sound as if it invites corruption. Bribery and corruption is taken very seriously in the British political system; with lots of safeguards against it and stiff penalties. So consequently bribery and corruption is very rare in the UK.
However, in our English Parliamentary system we do have ‘Parliamentary Privileges’ that has its roots in the English Civil War (1542-1651) e.g. the Bill of Rights 1689 which states “the freedom of speech and debates or proceedings in parliament ought not to be impeached or questioned in any court or place out of Parliament".
This Parliamentary privilege grants certain legal immunities for Members of both Houses (House of Commons & House of Lords) to allow them to perform their duties without interference from outside of Parliament.
It allows for:-
1. Freedom of speech; (members speaking in Parliament are not liable for defamation), and
2. Freedom from arrest in civil matters
Such ‘Freedoms’ allows members of the House of Lords and House of Commons to speak freely during ordinary parliamentary proceedings without fear of legal action on the grounds of slander, contempt of court or breaching the Official Secrets Act.
However, under the British Constitution, a consequence (price) for the privilege of free speech is MPs and Lords in Parliament are forbidden from uttering certain words, or implying that another member is lying. This is known as ‘Unparliamentarily Language’ and if a politician breaches these rules e.g. use unparliamentarily language then he/she can be suspended or even expelled from Parliament.
However, the ‘Parliamentary Privileges’ do not extend to the national Governments in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
Update Germany October:
For the first time since June the daily Covid deaths was in the 1% range of natural mortality. The number of active cases (46.000) is at the level of mid April.
Having said this the overall Covid outcome mortality is constant for months at 0,4 to 0,5% (take 2 week deaths and divide by 2 week average of active cases). I choose 2 weeks because that is what most Covid cases need to peak.
This is the same number as in the US and Italy. Seems to be a universal denominator for countries of similar economic development. Difference in absolute numbers between countries are attributed to difference in active case count.
The UK does not publish active cases, as far as i know. But if i apply this found number backward (kind of reverse engineering), the UK should have some 200.000 plus active cases by now. Is there any knowledge about this in the UK?
In G. autumn vacation started just now. Schools are closed for 2 weeks. My conclusion from first wave was that closing schools did the most to reduce active cases. We shall see if this holds some truth and this brings active cases under control.
There are no statewide or countrywide lockdowns, but by today more than 40 counties have more than 50 new cases within 7 days, putting the counties into local lockdown.I’ve been on the UK Government’s website to look at the raw data, which does your head in because it is just the raw data (warts and all); and one thing that is missing is data on how many active cases there are in the community. Although I’m sure if you spent the time counting how many people tested positive within the last 28 days and deducted deaths you’d probably get a rough estimate?
But I did gleam some interesting data about hospitalisation and testing:-
Population in the four Nations of the UK:-
• Northern Ireland = 1.882 million
• Wales = 3.136 million
• Scotland = 5.454 million
• England = 55.98 million
On the 11th October (most recent updated data):-
1. Number of people admitted to hospital for Covid-19 on 11th October:-
• Northern Ireland = 7
• Wales = 79
• Scotland = 0
• England = 628
2. Total number of people in hospital with Covid-19 on 11th October:-
• Northern Ireland = 140
• Wales = 327
• Scotland = 449
• England = 3,451
3. Total number of people on ventilators for Covid-19 on 11th October:-
• Northern Ireland = 35
• Wales = 29
• Scotland = 12
• England = 401
TESTING
Caveat: Since June, the UK Government has tried to keep capacity for testing higher than demand, so that over 90% of test results are returned within 24 hours. It failed miserably in September when demand outstripped capacity (so that only a third of results were returned within 24 hours); but since then most of the issues have been rectified and the testing programme is now more or less back on course.
Current Testing Capacity is above 300,000 per day with a Government Target to get it to half a million per day by the end of the month.
For Testing the latest full data is 13th October.
On the 13th October:-
• Testing Capacity on 13th October = 344,159
• Actual Tests done (demand) on 13th October = 219,074
• Number of positive tests on 13th October = 17,234
Also on the 13th October 2,973 antibody tests, and 20,138 tests for research (R&D) purposes, were also carried out.
Covid-19 Strategy UK
Throughout the summer (since 4th July) the UK Government have been using a ‘Whack-a-Mole’ strategy e.g. targeted tight ‘Social’ and ‘Economic’ Restrictions in areas (big & small) where flare-ups occur.
As of today, in England, that has been replaced with a ‘Traffic Light’ system e.g. a three tier system where every part of England falls into one or other of the three tiers; with those in the lowest tier having to follow just the current ‘Rule of 6’ but otherwise carry on as normal; and those in the highest tier having strict ‘Social’ & ‘Economic’ Restrictions applied.
Currently, it’s generally a north/south divide at the moment; most of northern England in the top two tiers (the toughest restrictions) and southern England in the lowest tier (just the ‘Rule of 6’); albeit the situation is being closely monitored, and can change at short notice e.g. London and Exeter are on the watch list for potentially being put into a higher tier.
The Scottish (Socialist) Government last week, put Scotland into total lockdown (circuit break) for 16 days, with a view to adopting the UK Traffic Light system when their lockdown ends.
SAGE (The Government’s Scientific and Medical Advisory Body), and Labour (Socialist) Opposition Party are both putting pressure on the UK Government to follow Scotland’s example and put the whole of the UK under a short economic lockdown for at least two weeks (Circuit breaker); so if the Government’s current strategy shows no sign of working, then the Government may change tact within a few weeks, and impose the ‘circuit break’ (nationwide lockdown for a short period)?
We are in unchartered territory, but Boris is still ambitious in trying to bring down infection rates before Christmas (if possible), so that the British people can enjoy a good Christmas; and knowing Boris, the current tactics may well change again soon, if they are not seen to be working?Arthur, we shall probably have more time to discuss green energy in weeks to come. Things are getting nasty here in Europe.
As of Oct. 16th we get local lockdowns all over the country. Beginning of September no county was in the red zone (50/7days/100.000). Now it is 80 counties, doubled with 2 days.
Even rationally acting German state and federal governments are getting hysterical. Can be noticed by states running free on imposing measures to contain the virus. Some forbid tourist travel, others restrict nothing, some even impose travel restriction on business - chaotic.
For the time being, health care system in G. is still relaxed, less than 5% of available ICU capacity filled with Covid19 patients. However median age of infected has picked up from 32 years (2 weeks ago) to 38 years today.
We shall see that this second wave to no more a wave, it will be a tsunami rushing over Europe. The number of active cases more than doubled within 2 weeks. But what is more worrying: At the height of the first wave in Europe, we had some 700.000 active cases (April). Now we have 3700.000, every European country carrying its share. Of what comfort will it be that we have a much reduced fatality rate, if we don´t get active cases under control. Absolute numbers matter, not percentages in statistics.Yep, it’s basically the same in the UK as in Germany.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are now in near full lockdown (circuit break) with Wales to go into national lockdown this weekend; Scotland in full lockdown for 16 days, with Northern Ireland in lockdown for a month, and Wales going into lockdown for at least a couple of weeks.
England has taken a different tact of rather than imposing a full national economic lockdown, of imposing partial lockdowns on a local level (hot spots) instead; on the three tier system (traffic light system) e.g. level one just the ‘Rule of Six’, with level 3 being the shutting of all pubs (bars) and non-essential shops etc.
The Rule of Six being that people cannot gather in groups larger than six, outside or inside, in public or in private; giving the police the power to breakup private house parties, and garden BBQ’s etc.
In England currently, most of northern England and London are in the top two levels (where the spread is highest), and the South West is still in the lowest level e.g. infection rate still quite low.
When Scotland’s 16 day lockdown end’s they are mindful to adopt the traffic light system in use in England.
In England, non-essential travel from level 3 (highest level) to other parts of England is illegal.
In Wales, the police are patrolling the Welsh border with England to prevent anyone from level 2 or level 3 in England from entering Wales.
The Labour Party (Socialists) and many local governments are pressing Boris to follow Scotland’s lead and put the whole of England into a short economic lockdown for at least two weeks; albeit the WHO is backing Boris’s strategy!Europe that was badly affected by covid-19 after China, has learnt a lesson the hard way not to give in to another severe covid 19 outbreak. Prime Minister Boris Johnson should not make another mistake of allowing the virus to strike his people again. The first outbreak is enough lesson. I understand else where China is likely in control of the United Nations? If so Boris has been brainwashed? She is not worry if the whole of Europe is destroyed as long as her economic progress is concerned.
I’ll take each of your points in turn:-
#1: The countries in Europe that were slow in imposing an economic shutdown the first time round (back in March) were hard hit by the pandemic e.g. UK, Spain, Italy. The other countries, like Germany and Greece etc., who responded more quickly got off more lightly.
#2: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is making a judgement on how to best tackle the pandemic. Whether his judgement is the better choice remains to be seen; we should get an idea on this over the coming weeks, as things play out. However, he hasn’t ruled any option out, and may well revise his tactics in the coming weeks.
#3: No China is not in control of the UN (United Nations), nor are they in control of WHO (World Health Organisation); both those claims are propaganda (lies) spread by right-wing (nationalist) politics in the USA.
I never mentioned the UN; it’s the WHO that gives the International scientific & medical advice on the pandemic. Besides, Boris doesn’t take advice from WHO, he takes advice from SAGE (the UK scientific & medical advisors to the UK Government). I just mentioned that the WHO approved of Boris’s current tactics (local lockdowns) in preference to a full national lockdown. Albeit I didn’t mention that the SAGE advice was for a full national lockdown. It’s a difference of opinion in two different strategies to combat the pandemic; which opinion is more right will become more transparent over the coming weeks.
#4: Actually China doesn’t want to see Europe, nor the USA destroyed, specifically because China’s interest is in Economic Globalisation (not Nationalism) e.g. China’s economic growth is dependent on growth in world trade, and that can’t be achieved if her trading partners are in economic decline.
The stories about China that you’ve heard to the contrary are unfounded fears by the American people of China, propagated by right-wing nationalist’s political propaganda in the USA whose ideology is Nationalism rather than Globalism.
It’s Russia who would like to see Europe and the USA destroyed, as Russia is not interested in International Economic Trade; Russia’s agenda is to destabilise the West (Europe & USA) to undermine democracy and promote communism.Arthur, thanks for the response. You have simplfy things to me well. But curious why the USA should engaged in such a propagada?! The world is not at military war.
Tell me about it (sarcasm for I know, it’s bizarre). But the reality is that the right-wing politics in the USA is currently fixated with ‘Nationalism’ (Protectionism) e.g. fearful that cheap imports from China and the EU will undermine American Industry (threaten manufacturing jobs in America); an ideology of Trump.
Another ideology of America is the concept that America is the wealthiest and most powerful nation on earth, and they feel threatened by China e.g. a fear that China will displace the USA as the greatest and most powerful nation in the world.
Britain is also going through a phase of ‘Nationalism’, but for different reasons.
In reality, it’s a far more complex and dynamic picture than portrayed by the right-wing nationalist in America.
China may well eventually dominate world trade instead of the USA; but what goes around, comes around e.g. it’s not going to be the end of the world, nor the end of the USA as a great nation, if China displaces the USA as the leading economic power in the world.
The fears are over exaggerated as China isn’t currently the second wealthiest trading block in the world behind the USA; it’s the EU (European Union). That’s why Trump also initiated a ‘Trading War’ with the EU as well as China e.g. fearful that the EU is doing the same thing to the USA as China (undermining the manufacturing Industry in the USA at the cost of USA jobs), through cheap imports!
They are valid fears, but ‘protectionism’ (putting up barriers against world trade) and ‘trade wars’ are not the answer; they do more harm than good e.g. puts downward pressure on world trade, making it more difficult for the USA to export, with greater job losses in the USA e.g. it’s an ideology that is counterproductive.
World Trade, to be effective, has to be two-way; and the best way to achieve that equitably is through Trade Deals. In the absence of Trade Deals are the Rules of the WTO (World Trade Organisation), which is complex and not perfect, but it does work to a fashion.
It’s not the first time in history that a country has lost the top spot, and it’ll not be the last either:-
• Britain was the dominant nation during the period of the British Empire, when from the 17th century until the beginning of the 2nd world war Britain ruled over 25% of the world at the height of its Empire; with the majority of world trade going through British Ports.
• Since World War Two, the USA has been the dominant nation.
• Now, the USA feels threatened by both the EU & China; hence its propaganda against both nations.
Putting it into perspective, Britain loosing its Empire didn’t plunge Britain into economic disaster, Britain, since the 1960s has been just as prosperous economically as the USA; so not being the dominant nation does not equate to the economic disaster that the USA right-wing nationalist would have you believe.
Some notes on life on G. with with Corona.
Told my wife that next week will see more restrictions and we have to do some "strategic" shopping of groceries over the weekend. And indeed - toilet paper is again rationed (1 package per household), some shelves are empty (potatoes, flour, sugar). Same as in March during full lockdown.
IN general life seems to be very normal. On Tuesday we were bowling with our daugthers family (party of 7 in my SUV). Tonight we went to the cinema. No masks required after we were seated. Hope it stays this way for the time to come. Our city is currently a low risk area with very few Corona incidents. But - can change within a day.
In G. car license plates have uncoded county readings. So everyone sees where you are from and if it is a no-no area. Easy game for hunting down violators. You don´t have to block county or state borders.
New scientific studies are out which describe a corrected method of relating the R-factor to heard immunity. In short: R-factor is not constant over the population. In other words: susceptibility does vary and thus reduces the necessicity for high herd immunity. While the first wave infected those with the highest susceptibility and resulted in a high R-factor, now the cohort with lower susceptibility is contaminated and results in a lower R-factor. The study sees a herd immunity of 20% to 30% to be sufficient to contain the virus.
One of the studies: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 … 3.full.pdf
The study does not explain how people are more or less susceptible, but by introducing this variability, they fix the flawed models that initially indicated a long exponential growth period. This did not happen in any country, not in those countries with doing nothing and not in the countries that did a lot.
The study results probably need an update when we are through the second wave. Anyhow i think the study makes much sense already now.
It even seems to explain the results in Eastern Europe (and former East Germany). Initially i thought it was the robust mandatory vaccination programs in the former Comecon Block, that prevented catastrophies like in Italy or Spain. With respect to the study more light may be shed on this phenomenon. Possibly the cohort of highly susceptible was taken care of through the vaccination program. So Russia never experienced a spike in R-factor but has a very steady rise in cases and fatalities. It is enough to have R a little above 1 and have a more even susceptibility among the population and you get the result as in Russia, Belorus and others.Based on your feedback, there are some notable differences between UK & Germany:-
Food Supply Chain (Supply & Demand)
Currently, there’s no food shortages in the UK; business as usual.
During the first wave back in March/April food had to be rationed in the UK due to panic buying and people stocking-up on supplies e.g. restricted to buying just 3 of each essential item (including packs of toilet paper); but the competing supermarkets (competitors) collaborated by sharing resources (Staff, transport and supplies) to keep the supply chains open, and ensure supermarkets (food stores) were re-stocked overnight, every day: So the shelves were full first thing in the morning (when NHS staff and the elderly were given priority shopping) but were becoming empty by the afternoon.
We’ve never had any chronic shortage of toilet paper in the UK, but our Australian cousins did during the start of the pandemic back in March/April.
Also in April, the competing supermarkets collaborated together (sharing staff, transport and supplies) (pulling resources) to develop ‘Home Delivery’ as a prime option during the lockdown: Supermarkets doing Home Deliveries prior to the pandemic was quite well established anyway, just on a much smaller scale.
Therefore, ever since the start of the lockdown back in late March we’ve had almost all our food home delivered; and we’re still using the ‘Home Delivery’ Service because it saves us having to physically visit the supermarkets while the pandemic is still with us.
One interesting quirk of the competing (different) supermarkets pulling their resources for home delivery is that we place our order (on-line) with one supermarket, and the following week it might be delivered by a ‘hot dog vendor’ (sub-contracted), and some of the supplies can be from competitor supermarkets e.g. we place our order with Morrison’s Supermarket and they deliver Tesco or Sainsbury’s supermarket branded baked beans for example; which is generally fine e.g. British Baked beans are all basically the same regardless to brand.
However, the one hiccup was when we had mainland Europe baked beans (which isn’t normally available in the UK) delivered instead. We tried one tin, but it wasn’t to our taste, so we gave the remaining tins to charity (food bank).
FYI Continental European baked beans are made from beans grown in Europe, and when tined contain half the sugar that British baked beans contain. British Baked Beans are imported from the USA, but for the British market the American exporters add half the amount of sugar than they do for the American home market; so I dare say that baked beans sold in the USA wouldn’t be to our taste either.
Socialising
Currently half the UK population is under some form of social/economic lockdown, to varying degrees e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, London and most of Northern England; while the other half of the country (southern England, excluding London) are just under the basic ‘Rule of Six’ Regulations.
I live in Bristol (southern England), where the virus contagion is relatively low at the moment, so restrictions are comparatively light e.g. basic ‘social distancing’, wearing masks in enclosed spaces and gathering in groups no larger than six etc. So compared to other parts of the country life is relatively normal e.g. we ventured out for the 2nd time a few weeks ago to spend the day at Slimbridge Wildlife Bird Reservation.
Our Day Trip to Slimbridge Wetland Wildlife Reserve during the pandemic: https://youtu.be/FjSPVZRRceo?t=320
However, in reading your comments, I note some of the things you describe about your ‘socialising’ which would be illegal in the UK, as follows:-
1. A party of 7 (in public or private, indoors or outdoors) is illegal in the UK, the maximum number of people allowed anywhere in the UK in a group is just ‘six people’.
2. Masks are mandatory indoors (in public places) in the UK, unless you are seated and eating and/or drinking. Therefore, masks would be required in a cinema in the UK.
Borders
We don’t have regional car license plates, so when the Authorities want to stop travel from high infected areas e.g. on the Welsh border with England, it can only be done by road blocks manned by the police.
Scientific studies
The link you gave is neither ‘new’ (dated 21st May) nor has it been ‘peer reviewed’. Therefore, I can’t put too much weight on it, and although the ‘R’ value is a crude tool, your comments don’t seem to accord with the UK!
During the first wave, back in March/April, over 50% of all Covid-19 related deaths in the UK were in ‘care-homes’. However, of the 12,250 care homes (477,100 residents) in the UK only 56% of them actually became infected with Covid-19. So there is still a real risk of the remaining 44% of care homes becoming infected with the virus; including where my wife’s brother (and his wife) live e.g. they rent a flat (apartment) in a care home in Bristol (old hospital converted to flats for the elderly) with a resident nurse on the premises 24/7; so far no infections on the property where they live.
Extensive research (mass testing for antibodies within the community) done by the NHS shows that so far, less than 7% of the British population has been exposed to the virus, so we are a long way from herd immunity.
During the first wave the contagion was evenly spread across all age groups.
During this 2nd wave the contagion is most predominantly amongst the younger age groups, mainly in those in their 20s, and to a lesser extent in their 30s, because it’s that age group that is socialising; whole those in their 40s and above, and those in higher risk groups, are predominantly shielding themselves from social contact. Although younger people going out socialising, and becoming infected, are subsequently passing the virus onto their parents and grandparents; so gradually the older (more vulnerable) age groups are slowly becoming infected, leading to more hospitalisations and deaths.
So apart from better treatment and people at higher risk being more cautious, nothing has greatly changed in the UK e.g. the risks of serious illness is just as high, and we are no closer to herd immunity in the UK now than we were at the start of the pandemic back in March.The effects of having a lockdown and not having a lockdown can be seen now. While in April/May during the first wave a typical tracking process included 8-10 contacts, now numbers were published that indicate 70 - 100 contacts to be followed per Covid19 positive tested. People simply don´t stay at home and don´t reduce contacts any more.
Meanwhile Germany has reached more than 10.000 new infected per day, the tracing is getting to its limits as this means almost 1 Million contacts have to be followed up per day. I think in some counties with a high uptick in cases it is already out of control.
What we know by now is that private contacts, parties, family reunions, weddings, funerals are the main driver. Man is a social animal. You can´t lock up people any more.
As life goes indoor, this fuels infection probability by magnitudes. So even if susceptibilty goes down with the second wave, indoor life overrides.
And if tracing is no more helpful and efficient, who knows how long it takes to get the virus again into the elderly care facilities.
Looks like the UK is even much worse off. This week population adjusted you have the same numbers as the US, which means: no more control. My (reverse engineering) estimate of active cases suggests some 300 -350 thousand currently in the UK.Yep, with population adjusted figures, the UK has just reached where the USA was a week ago, although since last week the death rate in the USA has started to climb again. So we are not quite at the same level as the USA yet; albeit in the UK it will get worse before it gets better, and looking at the trends, it’s also going to get a lot worse in the USA in the coming weeks.
During a couple of his ‘Address to the Nation’ this week Boris has apologised for failings in the system etc. e.g. acknowledgment of cracks in the ‘track & trace system’ due to the exponential growth in new cases, issues which his Government are constantly working on to improve.
Part of the reason for the exponential growth in new cases is the Government increasing its test capacity from 300,000 to near 500,000 per day over the past month (detecting more cases due to increase testing); plus of course, the positivity rate has also increased dramatically over the same period: Both factors that puts added pressure on ‘track and trace’; to a point where tests results have once again slipped back to only a third of results coming back within 24 hours (a major embarrassment to the Government): Albeit a test capacity of 500,000 a day in the UK is an achievement in comparison to the USA where they are only testing between 600,000 and 800,000 a day.
One controversial move by the UK Government last week was to change the law so that the police now have access to the ‘track & trace’ data so that they now have the tools to check that individuals who should be ‘isolating’ are doing so; with potential fines of up to £10,000 for breaching quarantine rules.
Yep, the UK ‘track and trace’ data confirms what you say about what is fuelling the pandemic.
The ‘track and trace’ data clearly shows that the two main causes of the spread of the virus in the UK are:-
• University Students, and
• People Socialising in each other’s homes
On the latter point, that’s why the Government introduced the ‘Rule of 6’ across the whole of the UK in early September e.g. illegal to gather in groups of more than 6 people outside or inside, in public or in private.
It’s also the main reason why the pandemic is more widespread in northern England than in southern England; traditionally northerners are far more sociable than southerners e.g. northerners are far more inclined to have house parties and garden BBQs, inviting family, friends and neighbours around, than southerners who are more inclined to keep themselves to themselves.
UK North Vs South: Are Southerners Unfriendly? https://youtu.be/v_AH6lr2VUQ
With regards to University Students: Back in July (4th July) when Boris lifted the lockdown and re-opened the economy, Boris at the time stated that keeping schools (and universities) open was his top priority and that if he had to make a choice he would close pubs down before closing schools (universities). In reality, the ‘track & trace’ data shows that pubs in the UK are not the super spreaders that everyone at the time feared they might be, but that universities are. Nevertheless, in tier 2 & 3 areas (the hot spots) it’s the pubs that the Government is forcing to close, not the universities? However, this week, Boris did say that he intends to put ‘all’ university students into a two-week quarantine in early December so that they can all safely go home for Christmas with low risk of passing on the virus to their parents and grandparents; all part of Boris’s fixation on trying to get the pandemic under control by Christmas so that the British people can “Enjoy Christmas”.
The current status is that a few weeks ago most of northern England was put into local lockdown, with London recently going into lockdown; and in the last week or two Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have all been put into lockdown by their various Governments.
The only major part of the UK that’s not under any lockdown, other than the basic ‘Rule of 6’ is southern England (excluding London) e.g. the only part of the country where the infection rate is still low. The latest indicators are that there are early signs that the infection rate is slowing in some of the areas in Northern England that have been under lockdown for a few weeks. So although the infection rate in the UK is still currently on the rise, it may be an early indicator that the curve is beginning to be flattened? We should get a better idea over the coming weeks!What the R-factor of a little above 1 can do:
Since middle of July R remained a little above 1, something between 1,15 and 1,2. And look what mess is happening. Everything above 1 is exponential.
In July a lot of infected recovered, suggesting a relief, even though R was already above 1. Then eventually G. ran out of recovered cases and the 2. wave began.
We now have the choice of either fully stepping on the brakes, enforce full lockdown and damage the economy further or let the matter slip out of control.
All measures that are something inbetween a full lockdown and business as usual will not help, will only delay "out of control" a little bit. Applies to all of Europe. The US is helpless anyways.
In G. the healthcare situation is still calm. Some 1100 Covid patients hospitalized with 500 on ventilators. ICU Capacity in the range of 30.000 without emergency measures. Scheduled ICU useage not halted yet. It will probably need more than a magnitude more Covid patients to stress the system. But this can happen very fast. Average age of new infected is increasing every day.Yep, similar in the UK, except for the timing e.g. the UK’s 2nd wave didn’t start until September.
Prior to 4th July (when Boris) re-opened the economy, until 11th September the ‘R’ value in the UK was hovering around ‘1’, and the infection was steady and declining slowly week by week.
The ‘R’ value rose to between 1.1 & 1.4 on 11th September, and since then, as you describe, everything has been exponential.
The ‘R’ value in the UK peeked at between 1.3 & 1.6 on the 2nd October, and has slowly been dropping since. This week (23rd October) the ‘R’ value is between 1.2 & 1.4, the lowest the ‘R’ value has been since the 18th September; obviously still far too high, but slowly heading in the right direction.
The two ‘R’ values represents the two extremes across the UK e.g. Southern England (where I live) being the least affected part of the country (the lower ‘R’ value), and Northern Ireland being where the infection rate is the highest (the upper ‘R’ value).
I understand what you say about it should be ‘all’ or ‘nothing’ e.g. a full lockdown, or just let it rip like the USA; and that halfway measure only slow down but not stop the virus from spreading out of control.
That’s why ‘official’ opinion on the right course of action to control the pandemic is currently split in the UK: Effectively two experimental ‘course of action’ being carried out in the UK; which course of action proves to be most effective will be closely monitored over the coming weeks, and will no doubt set the course of Government policy as we move into December.
The two different approaches being:-
• Full or near full social and economic national lockdowns as in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and
• Regional lockdowns on a three tier system, whereby only those regions where the infection is high are under near full lockdown e.g. large parts of northern England.
In England, those advocating a full national lockdown are:-
• SAGE (The Government’s Scientific & Medical Advisory Body),
• The Labour Party, and
• Most Local Governments.
In England, those advocating just measured Regional lockdowns, full or partial dependant on the local infection rate, is the UK Government (Boris), and the WHO (World Health Organisation).
The Scottish Government have already decided that when Scotland comes out of full lockdown next month that they will adopt a variation on Boris’s scheme e.g. a 5 tier system of ‘Regional Lockdowns’ in Scotland, with the lowest tier (Level 0) being near normal life, and the highest tier (level 4) being a full lockdown in a Region.
As at 23rd October in the UK:-
• 7,706 Covid-19 patients hospitalised, and
• 707 covid-19 patients on ICU.
The UK does have plenty of spare capacity at the moment because of the Nightingale Hospitals built in April, and equipped with ventilators, specifically to cope with the pandemic.
The UK built 7 Nightingale Hospitals around the UK in April, the largest of which are London, with a capacity to take 4,000 Covid-19 patients on ICU if required, and Birmingham with a capacity of 5,000 ICU beds. Total combined capacity of the 7 Nightingale Hospitals is 11,960, each bed being equipped with a ventilator if required.
Likewise, as with Germany, the average age of new infected is increasing by the day.Looks like England is going into full lockdown for a month. Doesn´t seem to apply for all of the UK. Or do i understand the situation wrong?
Meanwhile Germany enforces a lockdown light for the month of November. This will only cause trouble.
In my understanding the lockdown is imposed now to have a relief by Christmas. If the situation is not relaxed by Christmas, people will massively ignore any restrictions. Already now the measures are not coherent and don´t represent any lessons learned.
Contradictory:
- Schools remain open, but to close schools was one of the main helpers in dealing with the first wave.
- Almost no infection spreading found outdoors. But now mask wearing is imposed even oudoors in downtown shopping areas.
- Very few infections in restaurants, but all resaurants have to close now.
My conclusion: All measures impose restrictions in public areas. This drives people into private (and uncontrolled) space, homes - not to mention weather conditions that make people live inside anyways. Imho all measures result in having less control. Of course, gives politicians the image of having responded correctly.
I was fully supporting the government action in March/April to contain the first wave. Now this all looks like inconsistent actionism with potentially little impact. I only hope i am wrong.Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are already in full (short, sharp) lockdowns; called a circuit break, aka firebreak.
• Scotland went into lockdown on 9th October until 2nd November.
• Northern Ireland went into lockdown on 16th October until 13th November.
• Wales went into lockdown on 23rd October until 9th November.
Northern Ireland (far right wing Government) went into lockdown on 16th October because that (along with Northern England) is where the highest rates of infections are in the UK. And like Northern England, the spread of the virus is out of control in Northern Ireland.
Scotland went into lockdown early and quickly because, although the infection rates were low, new cases were beginning to rise rapidly, and they wanted to get on top of the situation before it got out of control.
In Scotland (Socialist Government), during their lockdown (9th October until today) the spread of the virus has been curved, and infections rates are now down to low levels again. So Scotland has adopted a five tier local lockdown policy (based on Boris’s three tier system that’s been in operation in England since early September) which comes into force today in Scotland e.g. Regional lockdowns, with the highest level of restrictions where the virus is most prevalent (hot spots).
Scotland has also imposed travel restrictions between Scotland and England.
In Wales (Socialist Government), like Scotland, the infections rates were relatively low, but had started to rise sharply, so they went into lockdown on the 23rd October for a couple of weeks, as a ‘fire break’.
And like Scotland, Wales have imposed travel restrictions between Wales and England; but unlike Scotland, are enforcing it with road blocks on the English/Welsh border with police.
As with Germany, the proposed lockdown in England imposes closure of pubs and restaurants, and all non-essential shops and businesses (where the infection rates are known to be low), but keeps schools and universities open, in spite of the fact that it’s known that it’s the university students who are responsible for a large proportion of the virus spread! Albeit the ‘Rule of 6’ (gatherings of 6 more than 6 people in public or private, outside or inside) is illegal, and enforceable by the police with fines of up to £10,000 for breaches of the Covid-19 Regulations.
Boris’s fixation, as it has been since July, is to bring the pandemic under control by Christmas, so that the British public can enjoy Christmas as a temporary rest-break from the pandemic, pending the role out of the vaccine in the spring.
Pilot trials of the quick 10 minute saliva tests have been carried out across three towns in England over the past month. The 10 minutes kits (three different types being trialled) have a 98% accuracy, are all British manufactured, and can be mass produced cheaply with a potential production capacity of 10 million kits a day.
During the month long lockdown, Boris is intent on introducing these quick 10 minute kits on a large scale as a means of a mass testing programme across the UK, as a way of trying to beat the virus down during the month long circuit-breaker! E.g. the potential of being able to test up to 1/7th of the population daily, with instant results!
On Wednesday of this week (4th November) Parliament are voting on Boris’s proposed lockdown (to start on Thursday 5th November); and Boris will have to rely on support from the Labour Party (Socialists) to get his proposed lockdown approved by Parliament because of opposition from Conservatives on the far right in his own party. That shouldn’t be a problem because the Labour Party is fully supportive of Boris’s proposals; albeit the Labour party will be pressing for Boris to also include closing schools and universities during the lockdown. The far right of Boris’s own party are opposed to the lockdown because they want to keep the economy open, and the far right of the Conservatives are angling to try to take ‘Queens prerogative’ (powers) away from Boris to prevent him from having power to make decisions on the pandemic without consulting with Parliament; previous attempts made by the far right of the conservatives in his party, for Parliament to seize these powers from Boris has failed, because so far the Labour Party have backed Boris in keeping his decision making powers on pandemic matters specifically because it allows him to make snap decisions when necessary.
Are we understimating the influence of being indoors?
I looked at worldometer and found some numbers:
Death count per Million continental average:
Africa: 41
Asia: 62
Europe: 363
North America: 571
South America: 657
The only continent predominantly on the southern hemisphere is South America. More indoor in their winter period means more fatalities.
If i am right, the situation in South America should relieve a little and all countries on the northern hemisphere will experience an increase in daily cases.
Asia and Africa don´t have too many territories that are really subject to season (Except some of China, Korea and Japan). So seasonal impact will be smaller.
The numbers i found are population adjusted, but they are not age adjusted. If median population age in Africa is much lower than f.e. in Europe, a whole cohort of vulnerable senior citizens will not be effected, party explaining the low fatality rate in Africa.
The more the pandemic progresses, the more i loose confidence that administrative measures can really do the trick. If you are not on an isolated island like Iceland or New Zealand, you will have to live with the virus. Too much interconnectivity.The southern hemisphere is taking a break. The country-list of worldometer had most South American countries ranking high in adjusted death count. Now (getting warmer in S.A.) their numbers are stalling, their ranking being replaced by the US, UK and European countries on the northern hemisphere.
What do countries like Uruguay or Venezuela do differently compared to much harder hit peer neighbours? Still much unknown with this virus or do we have an explanation?Yep, we’ve ‘learning as we go along’; still a lot to learn about this new disease.
The ‘Rule of Six’ in the UK, introduced in early September seems to be paying off e.g. the curve on ‘New Cases’ is now flattening, and showing early signs of possibly coming down again. The ‘Rule of Six’ being gatherings of no more than 6 people in public or private, in open space or enclosed space.
With England having just gone into near full economic and social lockdown as from today (5th November) and with the Celtic nations (Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) due to come out of lockdown within weeks (Scotland has just come out of lockdown), that should help to flatten and bring the curve for ‘new cases’ down further and quicker in the UK; and after a time-lag, deaths too.
Of course, even if Biden does win the Presidency, he’s not going to be able to do anything to tackle the pandemic in the USA until January: ‘Too Little, Too Late’ e.g. even if Biden wanted to I don’t think the American people have got the ‘stomach, patience or sense’ for a 2nd lockdown. The best he’s going to be able to achieve is to make ‘mask wearing’ mandatory across all 50 States, and impose Federal Regulations on ‘Social Distancing’, which in themselves will not be enough to have any great impact on the pandemic; albeit every little bit helps to save lives e.g. by the time Biden takes office the USA will be approaching half a million Covid-19 related deaths.
The USA has moved up to the 9th worst country in the world for Covid-19 related deaths per million of population; while the UK has slipped into 13th place, and now the 3rd worst across Europe, rather than the worst (deaths per million).Arthur, concerning performance to control the pandemic, i believe there has to be more to it than just mask wearing and social distancing. My curiosity is shifting to countries like Sweden, Belorus or the South American countries i mentioned. What did and do they do differently?
I start thinking that a lot has to do with consistent, permanent rules, not erratically changing the rules all the time (from lifting restrictions to imposing new restrictions). In this context, permanent may also mean: no restriction at all (like in Belorus).
In management and corporate leadership we have a little anekdote to describe and understand the behavior of the staff. It has the abreviation BAW - "bend and wait". It describes the psychological behavior of staff who is constantly subjected to new rules without waiting for the outcome of existing rules. Happens often when management is changing frequently and every new boss tries to impose his own way to improve matters.
The Corona virus - For the past 9 months the pandemic is active, nothing has changed so far. But management (government) tampers all the time with the restrictions. What are the people doing: BAW - bend and wait. At first bending was not comfortable but accepted. Then government eased restrictions and everyone relaxed. But the real issue, the pandemic never disappeared, so there was no reason to relax, except for management to "howl with the wolves", to accomodate people. And now - people don´t even bend anymore.
The company i worked for in executive position imposed mask wearing in March. I was there 2 weeks ago for my yearly flu shot (a service even for retirees like me) and still the same mask wearing on the workplaces. Gives me a warm feeling that my recommendations on consistency are still obeyed.
Anyways, if you want to keep a crowd organized, never let change dynamics be faster than the response dynamics. Especially if you don´t understand much on the response dynamics (the virus).
At the end of the day (of the pandemic) those countries will have fared best, who adopted this principle. Sweden failed in protecting the elderly, but is now successful in keeping the virus under control (hopefully). They applied easy to follow restrictions (not much bending) and never changed them.You raise some interesting points.
I’m not familiar with how Belarus or South Africa are tackling the pandemic, or how successful they’ve been, so I can’t make any comments there.
However, Sweden hasn’t been as successful as many think. At first glance they’ve appeared to have done well because they have a small population and hence their death toll at 6,000 appears small. However, when you look at ‘deaths per million’ it tells a different story e.g. 593 deaths per million of population.
In fact of the 45 European countries, Sweden is the 8th worst for deaths as a percentage of population.
Yesterday I said the UK was the 3rd worst, but that was a typo; the UK is actually the 5th worst at this moment in time.
The European countries that have to date been more successful in controlling the pandemic includes:-
• Germany: 32nd worst out of 45 (133 deaths per million)
• Belarus: 34th worst out of 45 (106 deaths per million)
• Greece: 38th worst out of 45 (67 deaths per million)
• Iceland: 41st worst out of 45 (53 deaths per million).
This compares with:
• UK: 5th worst (708 million deaths per million)
• Sweden: 8th worst (593 million deaths per million)
I mentioned Greece and Iceland because they are two countries who have been successful in combating the pandemic, and because I know what their strategy was.
Greece shut down their economy early and hard (full lockdown) because they are a poor country and knew that they wouldn’t be able to cope if they let the virus spread e.g. one of the first countries outside of Asia to go into full lockdown.
Iceland has been successful, because like South Korea they’ve had a very aggressive ‘testing, track and trace’ programme.
In answer to your question:-
1. Tightening restrictions does curb the pandemic, and relaxing them once the spread has been lowered does allow the potential for the virus to start spreading again.
2. One or two measures on their own e.g. just mask wearing, and social distancing (as favoured by the USA) doesn’t work that well; they should be part of a package of many measures, including, and most importantly ‘Testing, Track and Trace’; something which dropped from 800,000 to 600,000 a day in the USA over the past month.
Other factors to consider are:-
• The virus prefers colder climates, hence its increase in the USA and across Europe as we enter the winter months, and
• The virus spreads more easily in urban areas e.g. cities, than rural areas; and I’m guessing the population in South Africa is generally sparser?
In fact, as demonstrated by China, South Korea, Iceland and a number of other countries, Mass Testing, with good track and trace has been at the root of their success in keeping the pandemic, and hence deaths, to a minimum.
In that respect, although the UK has been plagued with one problem after another in trying to emulate South Korea in mass testing it is inching forever closer to potentially making it work. In the UK we are now up to a ‘Testing Capacity’ of half a million tests a day, albeit because of Administrative, technical and logistic problems only about a third of those tests return a result within 24 hours (to the embarrassment of the Government).
Nevertheless, the UK Government is now pinning its hope on mass testing using the 10-minute rapid tests (with 98% accuracy); which will potentially allow for millions of tests to be conducted daily.
In that respect, as part of getting the logistics right, the next phase of piloting such a ‘mass testing’ programme (which was piloted in three English towns last month) everyone in the city of Liverpool (population of half a million) are to be mass tested using the new 10-minute rapid tests; and if that trial is successful the UK Government is keen to roll out the ‘mass testing’ programme across the whole of the UK, capable of potentially testing 10 million people a day, before the current one month ‘lockdown’ ends.Much of the performance has certainly to do with testing.
If i understand things right then testing is handled differently in countries and this lead to some extent to differences in performance.
Low population islands (Iceland, New Zealand, possibly Australia) can isolate themselves from the outside.
In late summer Germany has switched to mandatory testing for travellers reentering. But that was flawed because test results were delayed and no directive was made to quarantine travellers after reentry. This allowed the R-factor to dwell a little above 1 for months August, Sept., Oct. with the explosive outcome of today. And by the way: G. is the center and intersection of economic Europe. 2/3 of lorries/trucks on the Autobahn system are not German. They pass almost unchecked.
China is testing everyone coming into the country and travellers have to quarantine in dedicated hotels for 2 weeks. Local outbreak are handled with hard restrictions.
Other countries do testing without someone needing to have preconditions.
All is depending on the number of active cases and how contageous the virus still is for society. The daily/weekly/biweekly death count is in direct correlation to the number of active cases. We can assume that the biweekly death count is in the range of 0,4 to 0,6% of active cases in that period (no matter Italy, USA, Germany, Austria). Do the reverse trick and you get some 700.000 active cases by now in the UK, even though not reported.
Greeces death toll has risen 70% in the past month. They have doubled their active cases. I would think they are a hard hit by now. Sweden on the other hand has in increase of Corona death of 2% in the same period. See what i mean?
Germany is in the same category as the rest of hard hit Europe. G. was only lucky with the first wave. Our current "lockdown light" is probably bound to fail, even if for the second consecutive day we have R below 1.
Still i have no idea of what Uruguay or Belorus are doing better.
Yes it can be advantageous if a country is an island, especially if the population is sparse.
Boris has taken advantage of the UK being an island by imposing strict quarantine rules for travellers from any country in the world where the infection rate is higher than 20 per 100,000 (which currently is most of the world); the 20 per 100,000 being the UK Government’s threshold for quarantine.
Also travel restrictions are currently imposed across internal borders between the four nations of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) e.g. road blocks manned by the police on the Welsh border with England.
Anyone entering the UK from any country where the infection rate is higher than 20 per 100,000 have to quarantine for 14 days by law; and the fine for not doing so is £10,000 (plus they get a Criminal Record).
In recent weeks the UK Government changed the law so that the police can access the NHS Track and Trace database to facilitate the police in spot checking that people are complying with the quarantine rules; which for ‘Travel Quarantine’ (people entering the UK from other countries) means they are housebound for the full 14 days e.g. leaving the home even for food shopping (to buy food) is illegal; they have to either get their food delivered, or get someone else (who’s not part of the household) to buy the food for them. The only reason they can leave their home is for medical reasons.
Spot checks are made on 20% of travellers to see if they are following the quarantine rules; and up to the end of September (latest full data) just 34 people were fined for ‘Travel Quarantine’ Rules; two thirds being under the age of 35.
As regards Greece and Sweden, both have similar size populations e.g. around 10 million. Yet to date the total death toll in Greece has only been 702 deaths; whereas in Sweden the current total death toll is 6,002; 8.5 time higher than Greece.
Therefore in spite of recent up-ticks in new cases in both countries (7 day rolling average of 2395 in Sweden (currently falling), and 2042 in Greece (currently rising); it seems to me that so far the heavy tactics in Greece have been far more successful in minimising deaths than the light tactics used in Sweden: Albeit, time will tell!Found this status on my smartphone "Corona Warning" App:
Apparently i had 2 brief contacts with Covid-positive people in the past 2 weeks (actually people, that tested positive some time before or after my contact, that is not even clear).
The app is in German, screen is green, so i should have nothing to worry about (contact too short, too far away, whatever).
My take on this: Currently some 20 million have downloaded the app. That is 25% of the population. Chance for contact is 25% * 25% = 6,25%.
This week we have some 200.000 active cases (only the active count out of the total population). Chances for contact in a 14 day period are : 200.000 / 80 mill * 14 * 6,25% = 0,22%. My 2 incidents cut this probability into half. So this screenshot is 1 out of 1000 of installed apps.
With the second wave in full development, this app can register some 200.000 / 80 mill * 6,25% = 12.500 contacts every day in G. But a lot of ifs: If someone tested positive he has to actively enter the test result into the app (nothing automatic, chances are 50%). If most are "green = nothing to worry", this rules out some 80% then the app catches some 1.800 serious contacts every day.
We currently have 6 - 7% positivity on testing with some 180.000 tests per day. The app contributes only 1% to the testing candidates. I dare say it is not worths it.
SInce the middle of last week Corona situation seems to stabilize, (R +/- 1, active case rise slowing, fewer deaths). But more restrictions to come. Future will tell.
Scotland and Northern Ireland are using their own apps. England and Wales are using the NHS app (Ver. 2) which wasn’t released until 24th September, delayed by almost 4 months due to the app being blocked by Apple security settings on Apple Devices. This was eventually resolved by the UK Government working with Apple and Google to modify the NHS app to comply with Apple’s security.
As at 29th October, 19 million people were using the app, about 40% of adults in England and Wales with access to a compatible smartphone; I’m not one of them because I’m still using an ‘old brick’ mobile phone e.g. an old mobile phone that doesn’t have web connectivity, albeit I’m still shielding e.g. not going out unless absolutely necessary, and even then I wear my mask and social distance.
Although the NHS app is not the primary tool in ‘track and trace’, it plays a small part. It is nevertheless a useful addition to the toolkit e.g. there’s already been one reported incident whereby the NHS app helped to identify an outbreak linked to a venue, which helped the ‘contact tracers’ to do their job more efficiently; every bit of intel (intelligence) helps.
I don’t know how many active cases there currently are, but since the 27th October the curve for new cases has flattened at around 22,000 new cases per day, and the ‘R’ value has fallen to between 1.1 & 1.3; which are good signs; so although the death toll will increase for a few more weeks, it’s likely to start falling again by next month.
Albeit, as at 4pm on 8th November, there were 12,949 patients in hospital with Covid-19, of which 1,185 are on ventilators.
The one good news is that the Government’s mass-testing trials:-
• Phase one in September of mass-testing in three towns using the quick saliva tests with results returned within 10 minutes.
• Phase 2 of the trials, which started earlier this week is to mass test the entire population of the city of Liverpool (half a million people) this month; with a view that if the trials are successful then to roll out mass testing across the whole of the UK, with the potential capacity to test up to 10 million people a day; which could be a game changer in fighting the pandemic.
Well considering that the flu has killed more people than cov19 I would say they are doing well
Well, if you don’t listen to the lies spouted by Trump, but you actually look at the facts you’ll see that the flu does not kill more people than Covid-19; and in actual fact the USA is NOT doing well in combating the pandemic.
Flu Season over the past five years USA:-
• 2015-2016 = 23,000
• 2016-2017 = 38,000
• 2017-2018 = 61,000
• 2018-2019 = 34,000
• 2019-2020 = 22,000
Total flue deaths in the USA over the past 5 years = 178,000
Total Covid-19 deaths in just 7 months in the USA = 224,282
My country's national leaders (Philippines) have no concrete plans on how to battle this pandemic. It's getting really frustrating day by day. Yes, we've managed to flatten the curve but, it took us five months to do that. We've been pleading to the gov't to do MASS TESTING, but they ain't doing it.
That's awful; mass testing is so essential in combating the pandemic; no wonder it took 5 months in the Philippines to flatten the curve.
I'm curious... how is the coronavirus there Now?
It has been an uphill battle in the U.S. and the numbers are spiking again just when we thought it was somewhat under control.
Uniting people together to wear masks and be cautious has different points of views in different areas.
Here...each state is controlling what lockdown measures are to be taken to help curb this virus.
As much as I hate to say it..it might be necessary for all states to join together with the same plan.
People here are sometimes too relaxed...which I admit I do at times also. I cannot be worried each minute..life keeps moving forward and I want to live each second of it.That's the approach that was taken in the UK and Australia. In Australia, the Prime Minister called on all our State leaders to form a "National Cabinet" which met together regularly (on Zoom) to agree a common strategy. It wasnt the Prime Minister telling the State premiers what to do, they all cooperated to agree a common policy across the country.
It worked very well. I think the fact that all the State premiers agreed on something, whereas they're usually all sniping at each other, made us all think, "whoa, this must be serious!"
The cosy agreement fell apart a bit after the first few months, I'm afraid (too much to ask for them to go on being nice to each other!) but it was enough to break the back of the virus here.
As you know, the UK is made up of individual countries, and they all cooperated too, but action was taken a bit too late, I think.Yep, as Marisa stated, the UK is made up of four ‘nations’ (three Celtic Nations, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland), and England (Anglo-Saxon/Norman). It’s not just diverse cultures across the four nations (let alone the north/south divide in England), in normal times the politics is quite polarised; but these are not normal times:-
• England is ruled by a right-wing Conservative Government (Capitalism).
• Northern Ireland is ruled by an ultra-right wing Government (DUP) in power sharing with the hard-left (Sinn Fein) as part of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (Peace Treaty).
• And Scotland & Wales both have left-wing (Socialist) Governments.
So although it’s a mixed bag of politics and cultures, it’s been very refreshing that ‘all’ nations, cultures and politics in the UK have united to fight a common enemy (Covid-19).
And like Australia, all four nations have pulled together on a common strategy/policy. It hasn’t been one set of uniform Regulations across all four nations (countries) of the UK. In general, the UK Government has taken the lead on the strategy and policy making, based on scientific & medical advice, and the other three nations have generally followed suit, with each nation making their own moderate variations to the English Regulations e.g. variations in travel restrictions, size of social bubbles etc.
For example in England the maximum allowed at funerals and wedding is 30 people, while in Northern Ireland the maximum is 25.
A support bubble in Scotland, in areas where the infection is low, is a maximum of 8 people from three households allowed. While the support bubbles in Northern Ireland is just two households, but can be of any size.
As Marisa stated, the UK was too slow in going into lockdown in March, so the death toll in March/April was very high (one of the worst in the world); but we stayed in lockdown for a long time (from 23rd March to 4th July) which bought the death toll down to just above single daily digits throughout the summer.
The UK went back into full lockdown again at the beginning of November because of a 2nd wave; the current lockdown in England ends on 2nd December, at which time we will revert to local lockdowns (on a three tier system) e.g. areas where the infection remains high will be under strict lockdown, and areas of England where the infection is low will have less restrictions. In Scotland it’s a five tier system e.g. the lower in infection the more relaxed the restrictions.
The current approach seems to be working because (in spite of testing ramped up significantly) the number of new daily cases reached its peak on the 16th November and is now rapidly falling, and daily deaths levelled off a couple of weeks ago, and should start to fall again soon.
One remarkable thing about the Brits is that generally they have been very supportive of the Government (a nation united), and haven’t become complacent. It doesn’t mean we worry about the virus all the time; life goes on. Albeit, many people have become stir-crazy because we’ve been locked up in our own homes, separated from family and friends, for most of the year; and little chance to get out and about because of travel restrictions e.g. the border between Wales and England patrolled by the police to prevent non-essential travel between the two nations; and when we come out of lockdown on the 2nd December travel between the different tiers in England will be prohibited until Christmas week.
Below is a video in August of just our 2nd time out socially since the start of the pandemic in March:-
Covid-19 Stir Crazy Road Trip to Ashton Court Estate, Bristol https://youtu.be/o2fQ1ZWsF_c
But life goes on……… especially as vaccines are now on the horizon; better safe than sorry.
Two numbers I want to share here:
Air pollution kills more than 7 million people each year
Covid has killed 2 million people worldwide.
Would it not make sense to put more attention to air pollution than Covid?Everybody is entitled to his/her own conclusions.
What about this one: With some 7,5 billion people on our planet and an average life expectancy of some 75 years: every year die 7500/75 = 100 million.
Most die simply of being old. Would it not make more sense to put more attention to age?
I don´t know where the numbers on air pollution come from, but i remember a 40 year old survey on NOx and COx concentration in the blood of french police (the flics): Nothing reliable to interpret found because a majority was smoking.
Isn´t something like environmental causes, health issues, fatal accidents already priced into the yearly death statistics? Covid19 adds on top, excess deaths are significant in most of Europe and the Americas.
Let´s not distract from the real issue, please.I know that talking about numbers is tricky. As behind each death, there is a family and personal tragedy.
But I think it is unwise to simply push the number of 7 million people dying of air pollution away by saying, it's already calculated..and seen as an ordinary way to die. It's not.
What I wanted to say with these two numbers is: We've been incredibly occupied the last year with Covid. millions are spent and an incredible effort is taken to battle the virus. Every day there is news about it.
But about air pollution which kills three times as many people as Covid each year, hardly anything is written about it in the newspaper. Why, is speculation. (priorities and the complexity of the problem I guess..)
But would it not be a great thing if the same effort would be put into this huge world problem, to minimize the unnecessary deaths due to air pollution. 7 million is a lot!
The article (a small one) I got my news from was from the Guardian. Who was referring to an article in the Lancet.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment … -in-europePeter, this guardian article you mentioned is talking about 50.000 yearly deaths in Europe caused by air pollution. The current count for Covid deaths in Europe is closing in on 700.000. We can inflate or deflate and question those numbers. There still remains a magnitude inbetween.
I don´t challenge that somewhere on our planet air pollution is really an issue. However in the "western" developed world the virus has shown to be far more deadly than other respiratory causes.
The elephant in the room is the pandemic, not air pollution, with due respect.Sorry for the late reply.
The Guardian article is also talking about: "The WHO estimates air pollution kills more than 7 million people each year"
I was talking globally. And with things like a virus or air pollution, there are not really borders. You should not look locally (Europe, or the western world.... )
Still, my point is, if you compare the media attention about Covid with air pollution then it is obvious that one is seen as more important than the other. (and I'm not sure if it is.)
I understand why it is, but it saddens me that the whole year Covid was the news, (or Trump), and the climate crisis we face, which is far more deadly, is hardly seen as a threat or mentioned.It is always good to be suspicious about media and their focus. However in the past and the present year, the issue is the pandemic, at least for most of us on this planet.
I don´t object if you say that people on some Polynesian island are getting wet feet or worse due to climate change. I also don´t challenge that much of the USA is hit by weather anormalities and that i can´t go ice-scating in Friesland (the German part) any more, too warm in Winter times.
But if we look at matters from a global perspective, lets guess what an alien from outer space would say if he reads statistics on CO2 concentration and global life expectancy.
He would probably think the mankind needs more CO2 in the atmosphere, because little humans prosper and live longer. Statistics are tricky and there is a clear correlation. Ok - don´t take this last one too seriously ...:-)Hi Chris, I didn't really want to go into a fight. Cold Turkey from 4 years Trump arguments, makes you sick and tired of all the bickering.
Good that you're relaxed about it as well.
I just happen to see the two numbers. (the one on Covid and the other one on air pollution on the same day in the same newspaper). And they made me think a bit.
I guess climate change is a subject for a different discussion. And it's a bit more than people on a Polynesian island getting wet feed. It's about resources, wars, refugees, drought, floods, extreme weather etc. A complex world problem.
If aliens looked at this blue marble and its life forms I guess humans are not the most cuddly ones...Peter, indeed, climate change is subject for a different discussion. It gives some comfort that the new US administration is accepting climate change to be real, not denying it like the past administration.
Meanwhile, i watch my oldest teenage grandchildren struggle with the impacts of lockdown. This pandemic takes roughly 2?? years away from the young. The pandemic forces even the most extrovert kids to become internet nerds. They will never regain this period of self development.
.. Air can be cleaned though...Yes, the lockdown has a huge impact on the young. Psychological as well, as touching and hugging each other becomes awkward. (Although at a certain age hugging and kissing is awkward, virus or not...)
But it's also the learning, exams, learning social skills etc. that suffers from the impact.
I was lucky that I could work online the whole year, but my wife who is a professional violinist lost all her income from concerts (Especially the big gigs like the Matheus Passion with easter and Weinachtsauritorium at Christmas..) in 2020, and 2021 doesn't look better.
All the hotels, restaurants and bars are closed here in Spain at the moment. And there is a curfew at 10pm. (Valencia the province I live, wants to make the curfew 8pm) Masks are obligatory everywhere. On the streets, in shops etc.
It's pretty tough.
Not wishing to digress, what Chris is saying is correct:
When I was a kid smog was common place in Britain, even in the countryside (thick pea soupers); in Victorian Britain London was famous for it, and parts of the Midlands (just an hour’s drive north of Bristol) became to be known as ‘The Black Country’ due to the high levels of air pollution caused by coal burning.
Why is it called the Black Country? https://youtu.be/ZeYSWIQqUDw
5th December 1952: The Great Smog of London (which killed up to 12,000 people) begins: https://youtu.be/xajjmbJrfEM
Thankfully those days are over, as we don’t burn coal anymore. Albeit, there is still high levels of air pollution in major cities due to traffic fumes: But thankfully that will soon become a thing of the pass as fossil fuel cars are phased out in Britain and replaced by electric cars; all fossil fuel vehicles are to be banned in the UK by 2030; and as from March this year, all diesel cars will be banned from Bristol, England.
Where the problem is most acute is currently in countries like China, where they are still burning lots of coal, as they transition from an agricultural to an industrial culture; but China is tackling the problem by also transitioning from fossil fuel to ‘Renewable Energy’ as quickly as is feasible; and phasing out fossil fuel vehicles, replacing them with electric cars.1957 saw Nigeria discovering crude oil the first time ever in a place called Olo Biri, a deltaic country on the Niger Delta. Consequently, the number one pollutant become gas flaring. For over 3 decades, gas was flared endlessly over the Niger Delta. Then efforts(laws) were made by the government to channel the gas for export and domestic consumption. The major oil companies like Shell began to compiled. How many deaths occur due to the gas flared is not known, and hence not record. Even the volume of the gas was only estimate in the hundred thousands. But some numbers of bodily illness were suspect. Late last year 2020, a writer here like Bill Gate was worried that the rate of infection, and death was very low in Afrika generaky, and Nigeria specifc. No foreigner has research what account for this.
In Dickens's time, there were not that many people on this planet. With air pollution and climate change, you have to think world wide.
In 1952 there were about 3 billion people on this planet.
Now we live with 7.6 billion! More than twice as much. This makes a huge difference in what the earth and the environment can handle.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanp … 2/fulltextYeah, the world population may well be much higher now than in the past; but it doesn’t alter the fact that air pollution was far worse then than it is now; simply because in the past the:-
1. Burning of fossil fuels (coal) on a massive scale in the factories for power,
2. Burning of fossil fuels in ‘Power Station’ to generate electricity.
3. Burning of fossil fuels (coal) in every home for heating and cooking; and
4. Over the past 70 years the burning of fossil fuels (oil) to run cars.
These days, apart from a few dedicated industries such as iron works, factories no longer burn coal; as these days, throughout the world, factories have now switched to electricity for power.
These days, there are far fewer coal fired power stations around the world, as each country is gradually switching from fossil fuels to ‘Renewable Energy’ to generate electricity.
Decades ago, people switched from burning coal in their homes, to burning ‘natural gas’ for heating and cooking.
Currently fossil fuel cars (oil) are being phased out across the world, and being replaced by electric cars.
So the world population might be much bigger now than it was in the past; but throughout the world pollution is being cut as we move away from the use of fossil fuels and replacing it with ‘Renewable Energy’. In fact, you only need to study the ‘time-line’ charts to see that worldwide air pollution has dropped dramatically over the past 150 years.
Air pollution in a historical perspective https://youtu.be/dL7mVD9g0rU
What are your thoughts on the recent outbreak in India? This mutation appears to be far more virulent than any of the others. Having a bit of education in the science of viruses I had hoped this would not happen. It would appear this virus is taking a very bad path in regard to mutations.
I heard last week the Government here in the US is looking to the FDA to approve the vaccine for age group 12 and up. Our children's hospitals are seeing many more cases of children of all ages being admitted with the new strains.
As a rule, I don't fall into conspiracy theories, or do I ascribe to "if comes". However, this new strain in India has me very worried. Plus, many here are choosing not to be vaccinated. I hope the Government will step up and be honest about what we could be in for with the new strain of the virus. It might encourage many to opt to get the vaccine.
Here in Michigan, we had a case of the new strain diagnosed last week in a man that traveled and returned from India.Okay, where are those supporting the conspiracy theory? What do they say about the new mutating strains from India and other African countries?
I was alluding to the US Government may be keeping the seriousness of the new strain. I have no proof that this is the case. And as rule, I would not go down a path of conspiracies. Our media is covering the outbreak in India, but they say little about the actual strain, they mainly concentrate on the numbers of infected, and the death rate. I don't trust this administration to be truthful. Example --- the huge problems at our border, they say little, and give the impression all is fine when it is not fine. This administration IMO does not answer to the citizens. So, I am not sure they would not downplay the new virulent strain of COVID.
I am sad to say -- I have no trust in the Biden administration. This is my truth
By now in May of 2021 most Western countries have moreless overcome the main waves of the pandemics. The UK seems to have reached herd immunity with their aggressive vaccination program. The USA is not trailing behind and only has to cope with vaccination reluctance. The EU is making progress and at least vulnerable age groups have reached herd immunity levels. South America is still struggling and India is sadly feeling the pain now.
How is it about economic recovery in your country? An anecdote:
In my neighbourhood a new housing project is under way. A lot of construction material is delivered and for the first time i noticed theft of materials (in this case mineral insulation material).
The reason seems to be obvious: Scarcety of construction materials. During the pandemic supply chains were cut off. With a surge in demand worldwide and compromised supply chains and production lay-offs, it it not easy to run up the economy.
On the other hand (at least in G.) all economic indicators are skyrocketing. Skilled personal is hired everywhere. Order books are full, but some companies have temporary lay-offs and production stops because of lack of raw products and materials. Prominently the car industry suffers from a worldwide electronic chip shortage.
While it tooks some time to bring the economy to a halt at the beginning of the pandemic, now the engine is stuttering because of empty supply chains.Interesting article There is a good solution:
https://mysolarperks.com/h-long-do-sol- … ually-last
First of all, a good speech of Boris Johnson. I think he gets connected to the people.
I live in Germany, in the state of Lower Saxony. We had social distancing enforced from 9th of March on. 3 days later, restaurants and hotels were closed. I remember i had to wipe tears from our youngest grandson, he had helped me clean the lawn and in the evening we would go to McDonalds, get me some coffee and him his HappyMeal. MD was closed on Thursday 12th. The 4 year old was very thoughtful. He asked me: Will grocery stores remain open?
Yes the shops remained open. A month later everyone entering a shop or public transport was supposed to wear a mask. Since then i use my old bandana from motorcycle days to adapt to the dresscode. In the week of first social distancing enforcement, we had the first Corona death and some 1200 infected. The R-number was well above 1.
Federal government and state governments had teamed up, no matter which party was in local or federal lead. In April Angela Merkel disappeared for 2 weeks into quarantene, because of contact to an infected.
In Germany we have "Kurzarbeitergeld" short work pay for those, who are layed off temporarily or part time. And we have Unemployment insurance that steps in for 15 to 24 months, if people get layed off permanently. Financial loss for either program is some 20 to 25% for the workers. Federal government raised 1 Trillion Euro or more without much ado to support companies. Then some assistance had to be created for all those selfemployed, musicians, artists, ... that was also solved.
In the beginning there was a lot of concern about how to protect the health care system. By now we have an online monitor of all hospitals in Germany, currently 1600 ICU beds are occupied by Covid19 patients, total number of ICU beds: 32.000. There never was a discussion about ventilators. I found out recently that Federal government had simply ordered 10.000 ventilators from Dräger and other German suppliers at the end of February.
In March first patients from Italy, France and Spain arrived in the county hospital 15 kilometers from our dwelling. Last (i believe an Italien lady) was released 2 weeks ago.
For the past 2 months, stress level in our society was relatively low. (At least when compared to the US).
The German approach to reopening is a little different from the UK. Takes advantage of the highly decentralized structure of the country. Case monitoring is delegated to the county authorities. If more than 50 per 100.000 new infections occur within 7 days, lockdown measures are reactivated for the specific county only. While opening up, currently only 3 counties have passed this number and stay closed. All shops are open, Industry, craftsmen are working. Hospitals already 2 weeks ago resumed regular service with scheduled surgery.
German system works by massive testing and case tracking. Had personal experience with this when local health authorities called me, because my mother (98yrs) had contact to an elderly care worker, who was tested Covid19 positive. All direct contacts had to follow ordered quarantene, all indirect contacts were registered. By now we have less than 20.000 active cases, so system seems to work.
This 50 per 100.000 threshold for new cases was chosen, after it became clear that local authorities were able to trace all new cases up to 50 per week. In my city (roughly the size of Little Rock, Arkansas), we had a total of 200 infected with 1 death (probably died with Corona and not from Corona). So with the new rules in place we would have never needed to lockdown.
A modelling was made to identify the time corridor until when the health system would overload, if a new outbreak gets out of control. Result is some 4 to 5 months lead. To me this is clear analytics and you don´t need the R-factor, which is associated with uncertainty. You simply take real numbers. IMHO this is a more stringend approach than the US and UK are taking. But this only my opinion.
Of course nobody is perfect. But all action taken by government and administration were straight forward and followed analytic decision preparation. I watched the latest press conference. It appeared to me more like an executive board meeting of a large company in crisis than a political stage. And i have execute experience. Anyways total contrast to the bizarre US press conferences.
Never voted for the lady on top. But the way she handles the crisis deserves full respect.
First indicators on economic fallout show, that fairly early measures result in much lower economic casualties. While Sweden (without lockdown) looses some 20 USD/citizen and day, for Germany it is only 10% higher, UK is at 25 USD and the USA is at 45 USD/citizen and day. Reason is high global interconnectivity. If supply chains break, it doesn´t help if have no lockdown at all.Wow, very impressive effort by Germany. I’ve always admired the Germans (and Japan) for their efficiently. Thanks for the details Chris; most interesting and educational read.
Like you, I didn’t vote for our leader (Boris): As Boris is a Conservative and I’m a Socialist our political, economic and social ethos’s are polls apart. However, ‘credit where credit due’ Boris has done an excellent job in uniting the nation, and all political parties, in our fight against the common enemy e.g. Covid-19.
Boris has so far, even been able to garner support from Businesses and Trade Unions, albeit the next week will be testing, as Boris is from Wednesday 13th May requesting non-essential workers in some Industries e.g. manufacturing and the construction to return to work, but for them not to use public transport if possible; which creates some logistic problems that the Trade Unions want clarification on. Also, the details of the safety measures such industries will need to comply with, in order to re-open isn’t being published by the Government until tomorrow (Tuesday 12th May), so there is likely to be a delay as Companies will need time to do their ‘risk assessments’, and introduce any measures necessary, to ensure they meet with the Government’s latest Guidance; and the Trade Unions are also seeking clarification and reassurance from the Government on specific health and safety issues before they give their support to the Government’s plans. So likely to be lots more discussions between businesses, trade unions and the Government over the next few days; but everyone is going in with a positive attitude, so I’m sure the nitty gritty will all get ironed out.
It is quite an achievement for Boris because although he’s not a compulsive liar, until the Covid-19 crisis he had a habit of telling his target audience what he thought they wanted to hear, even if it meant lying. However, since the Covid-19 crisis Boris has been open and honest to the Nation (in his daily briefings), and prepared to admit failure when things go wrong (something he’s not done before); and that ‘Open’ and ‘Honest’ approach has struck a chord with the British Public.
Likewise, in the beginning there was a lot of concern about how to protect the NHS, especially as the British Government was too complacent initially, and did little forward planning. But in the end the Government built the Nightingale Hospitals in 10 days, the one in London with 4,000 beds being the largest hospital in the world; and the Government (after some initial panicking) eventually just commissioned British manufacturers to switch production to making all the ventilators we might need (in a worst case scenario); so we are now awash with ventilators and plenty of spare ICU capacity to meet any major crisis.
Yes, the British Government wants to move forward with ‘track and trace’ similar to the way done in South Korea, as a way of easing the lockdown and getting the economy going again; but the UK is still a long way off from implementing such a scheme nationally. Although I’m sure over the coming weeks the logistics will be sorted out.
Your "Kurzarbeitergeld" sounds quite similar in some ways to the system Boris introduced e.g. anyone employed, but not working e.g. not in an essential job, then the Government has been automatically paying 80% of their normal wage; thus taking a burden off the employers so that the employers is less likely to make their staff redundant. And the British Government is also supporting the self-employed during this crisis by paying them 80% of their average net profit for the last three years.
Although if anyone is made redundant in the UK our unemployment system isn’t as generous as the German scheme; although fortunately thanks to the Government for paying the wages of those staying at home rather than working, redundancies in the UK during the pandemic has been quite low (less than 2 million).Nathan, i believe wilderness is right. We Europeans think different from Americans. That is why we kind of brag about social security and low stress levels.
In the beginning of the Brexit and the Trump presidency i thought Trump and Johnson were alike. Apparently they are not.
In Europe, in the UK there is light at the end of the tunnel. In the US there is so much smoke before the tunnel, they interpret the dim light before the tunnel that they have already passed it.
What puzzles me is the behavior of the American people. Except for some small demonstrations, people stay put. How does this match with the picture wilderness has drawn?
Is it fear? Because with fear you can manipulate people very easily.It matches a few ways, including fear.
Being more independent, Americans are forced to study issues for themselves and make their own decisions. In the case of COVID nearly all the evidence points to quarantine being a good thing. This is nothing new - the word was coined during the Black Death plague centuries ago. Stores also closed then as well, and people (in general) are not stupid. They CAN figure these things out for themselves (given data) - the biggest disagreement is how long it should last.
The second is that have been more than a few generations since the wagon train days, and younger people today were not raised with that extreme independence and responsibility. They are much more willing to simply accept what the Great Gods of Government tell them to do than their grandparents were. This can be seen in the ever increasing levels of the "nanny state", where government is responsible for caring for and providing for all people in stead of them taking the responsibility of providing for themselves. The US is following the same road, albeit some behind, European countries.I think the main point I gleam from your comments (rightly or wrongly) is the Americans’ mistrust of ‘scientific evidence’ and ‘scientific advice’?
In the UK Government Policy is being guided by ‘Scientific and Medical’ Advice, rather than politics; and the economy is given second place to the ‘health’ of the nation.
Since the start of the lockdown in the UK, each day, at 5pm the Government speaks to the Nation, followed by Q&A from the Press. The main briefing itself can last anything from 15 minutes to 30 minutes; but the Q&A with the ‘Press’ can last anything up to an hour.
On the podium during this daily ‘Address the Nation’ Session is a Government Minister in the centre (sometime Boris himself), with a Medical Advisor on one side, and a Scientific Advisor on the other side.
The Scientific and Medical Advisors who participate in this daily ‘Address the Nation’ Session, and who are Advising the Government, are members of SAGE (The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), consisting of over 50 Experts from more than twenty separate institutions.
This ‘Open and Transparent’ approach by the Government has gained the respect of the Nation, and united the Nation, largely because it is nonpartisan; something which seems to be lacking in America?
Short ‘Extract’ (just 90 seconds) from one of the UK Government’s Daily Briefings to the Nation (notable is the striking difference in tone (and message) to any ‘Briefings’ Trump makes): https://youtu.be/0T59A1uXYu8I never mentioned science or scientists. Never meant to.
"Science", "scientists", "scientific evidence" or "scientific advice" has nothing to do with cheerfully following the edicts of a government committee somewhere. It has nothing to do with shirking personal responsibility and giving it to that same government committee and it has nothing to do with expecting government to provide for our personal needs.
On the whole, I find the population at least as willing to follow the lead of science as government is; probably more so as the politics of power do not enter the equation that way.Yep, you didn’t make any mention to science. I think my comment was prejudiced by the negative attitudes of a number of Americans in other related forums on HubPages and with the rough time that Dr Anthony Fauci appears to be having e.g. apparent conflict with Trump and the views of Many States?
The picture I get from across the pond is basically that, as you said “…..the population at least as willing to follow the lead of science as government is; probably more……….”, and that is what I find worrying, in that governments (State or Federal) in the USA don’t seem to be taking the science seriously enough e.g. seemingly relaxing the ‘social Distancing’ rules far too soon and by too much at a time when the infection and death rates are still rising in many States in America; risking the spread of the virus getting out of control in a months’ time, as infections and deaths start to rise more sharply?
I do appreciate that a lot of this may be due to the ‘Wild West Spirit’ engrained into the psyche of Americans, which you described in such great detail (greatly appreciated); and the problem that the perspective from across the pond tends to differ (for various reasons) from Americans views, which can make understanding and appreciating each other’s views that much more difficult.I personally have a problem when "science" is touted as the end-all and be-all of controlling the pandemic. Mankind has known for centuries how to control the spread of disease and there is nothing "scientific" or new about it - it boils down to quarantine, whether total or partial (such as "social distancing"), and that word was coined during the Black Death plague of the 1300's when travelers and the sick were removed from society.
On the other hand we have come a long way in understanding how economies work and what happens when they fail (call it "science" if you wish)...but that knowledge is being set aside and ignored in the intense desire to stop COVID from spreading. IMO, that science is an integral part of our response and must be included in how we respond, but all too often is is not.
Time will tell whether an earlier slacking off of our quarantine is justified as the right response or not - certainly the difference of opinions does not carry the weight of knowledge yet.
When it comes to varying responses in the US, you must remember that we are not a single entity in this matter; that states, not the federal government, ultimately controls the response. States, too, do not have unlimited power, but they certainly have more that the feds do when it comes to locking down the population into a quarantine situation.Yep, during the time of the Black Death diseases were not understood, and there was no science available. The only thing they understood then was the importance of ‘quarantine’ and ‘social distancing’.
The Great Plague of London (from 1665 to 1666) was the last time the Black Death plagued England, contained almost exclusively in London through ‘Quarantine’ and ‘Social Distancing’; but also thinks to the sacrifice of the villagers of Eyam, Derbyshire (160 miles from London) where the plague spread to from London, the villagers in Eyam helped to prevent the Black Death from spreading to other parts of England by quarantining the village from the rest of England for almost 15 months.
The Plague Village of Eyam (1665-1666): https://youtu.be/3-ACLPr-xkE
The science I refer to is our limited but growing understanding of Covid-19, how infectious it is, how it’s spread, rate of infection (The ‘R’ factor), the fatality rate for given groups etc., all information which can be used to aid Governments in formulating their policies, to combat the spread of Covid-19 and to reduce the death rate to manageable levels.
Yep, I agree economies are important, and these days economic experts do have a good understanding on how they work; albeit there are different economic ‘models’ dependent on your politics and philosophy. And yes, as you indicate, most countries have sacrificed their economics “in their intense desire to stop COVID from spreading.”.
And Yep, as you say “Time will tell whether an earlier slacking off of our quarantine is justified as the right response or not - certainly the difference of opinions does not carry the weight of knowledge yet.”
Yep, I appreciate that in the USA it’s the States and not the Federal Government who has the ultimate control in by how much they quarantine the population, and how and when they ease that quarantine. It’s the same the world over:-
• The different States in Australia are acting Independently of each other; with tight internal border controls.
• The different States in Germany have the final say, but unlike Australia and the USA they are working together with the co-ordinated help of Angela Merkel.
• The Four Nations of the UK each have the final say, and although (as from today, Wednesday 13th May) England is easing it’s lockdown while the other three nations (Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) are taking a more cautious approach; during this time of crisis those other (Celtic) nations are giving their support to Boris (for the sake of unity).
I just hope that the various States in the USA, in their desire to kick start their economy, that they don’t lose sight of the science e.g. the dangers of covid-19 spreading out of control if the quarantine is eased by too much, too soon.Agreed that understanding disease and specifically the COVID virus can help us release our lockdown. At least it can if the people permit it.
As far as the kick start; I'm becoming increasingly concerned that other nations, along with the US, will not start easing off soon enough. The dangers of a failed economy are well known (the world has seen nations undergoing that more than we want to), and they are not pretty. Fear keeps us from acknowledging or discussing them (fear and politics) unless we are already directly impacted (job loss, hungry, etc.); only then, it seems, does anyone want to consider those very real dangers.
When major airlines fail, for instance, what happens to the huge tourism industry? It fails, and with it the taxes it produces. What happens when we can no longer keep roads and bridges in repair (the US already has a big problem there) and trucks carrying foodstuffs can no longer travel efficiently if at all? What happens when cities go broke and can no longer pay their real essential services; services such as police and fire, clean water, garbage removal, and so on and so on? We've seen what happened when banks and manufacturing were in big trouble, just a few years ago - what happens when there are no resources to restore them and it wouldn't matter anyway as no one has money to buy foreclosed homes, cars, refrigerators, etc.? Heck, what happens when refrigerator and air conditioner manufacturers go under? A quarter of the US is virtually unlivable without air conditioning and refrigerators are an absolute necessity any more (I don't think cutting ice chunks from the river in winter and selling them to keep our underground pantries will work).
A failed economy doesn't sound so bad...until the sum total of the problems is looked at, and then it can be a nightmare that our pandemic pales against. IMHO, and we are fast approaching the point that recovery will take years and years, if it is possible at all.I appreciate what you say, and yes major sections of Industry will be devastated including, and most particularly, the airlines, and the leisure and hospitality industries e.g. hotels, pubs, nightclubs, restaurants, cafes and restaurants etc., many will go bankrupt and it will have a major negative effect on tourism, which is a major part of economies like Britain.
There are however difference between the USA and other countries around the world. I can only speak authoritatively about Britain, but there will be similarities in other European countries:-
In the UK the British Government has taken the decision to raise the bulk of the money it needs for this crisis by selling Government bonds (raising the National Debt), it is a strategy that has worked, which is liked by ‘investors’ and which has helped to strengthen the £ against the $.
In the UK Local Governments are still getting their Domestic Local Taxes (Rates), as most British people have money to spend e.g. if not working or on welfare then getting 80% of the normal wages paid by the Government; obviously businesses will be struggling to pay their local taxes (Business Rates), but small to medium businesses are eligible for cheap loans, and grants from the Government, so money is still flowing. And where Local Governments do need extra help, the Government is giving them grants; albeit not as much as Local Governments would like, so they are a bit stretched, but they are coping.
In the UK, infrastructure e.g. road and rail etc. is all Government owned and maintained anyway; and Keynesian economics is effective in creating jobs and stimulating the economy during times of Recession e.g. Government spending on infrastructure; albeit it’s an economics Conservative Governments usually shun.
Also, what you describe is the social and economic devastation experienced across Europe and in Britain during the 2nd world war, when for example in Britain Hitler’s bombs destroyed over 2 million British homes (10% of housing), wrecked infrastructure e.g. roads, rail, shipping ports, key industries etc. all major targets of Germany’s nightly bombing over Britain. Yet, in spite of the fact that in the aftermath of the 2nd world war Britain was almost bankrupt, and had to rebuild from the ashes, with the help of loans (mainly from the USA) on the scale that this crisis has created (National Debt) the Labour Government (Socialist Government) started to rebuild Britain. It took 15 years to do, and when the Conservatives got back into power in the 1950’s they continued the work Labour started e.g. the Conservatives were instrumental in being able to build high standard, good quality, ‘Social Housing’ for the poor for a third of the normal price by streamlining the build design and construction.
Besides, it’s not that the British economy is at a standstill. The hospitality industries and airlines etc. may be taking a hefty hit, which is likely to take years to recover from but in the UK about 35% of workers are working in what’s classified as ‘essential services’, and 45% are working from home. So currently it’s only 25% of the British workforce that is standing idle at home and some of those e.g. those in manufacturing and construction, and Garden Centres were given the green light by the Government on the 13th May to return to work, if it’s safe for them to do so in accordance with strict Government Guidance on Social Distancing and hygiene etc.
So although the British economy is in Recession, it’s a long way from becoming a failed economy e.g. it’s proving to be surprisingly resilient.
Yes I (and many Brits) too had the same opinion at the beginning of Brexit and the Trump Presidency that Boris and Trump were alike “Tweedledum and Tweedledee”; but as you said, they are not.
I also agree with you that in Europe, and in the UK (in spite of Brexit) there is light at the end of the tunnel; which (from a European perspective) I don’t see in America.
I too find the behaviour of the American people puzzling, and therefore value wilderness’s input, as hopefully it will help me to gain some better understanding of the American people?
In writing this I’ve deliberately not yet read wilderness’s response to your comments, as I didn’t want my thoughts in this comment to be influenced by wilderness’s feedback!
Update May 13th: Things return to normal (almost). Today i made a good walk and was out for lunch with my wife. Met a friend on the way. Decided to sit together and talk. Restaurants in G. are required to record name, address and phone no. of at least one person sitting at a table. That is to facilitate the tracking if necessary.
I resume my private business by arranging appointments in other parts of the country. No more state to state travel restrictions.
4 counties are under lockdown. Outbreak hotspots showed up in meat processing plants (industrial butchers). Work in those plants is mostly done by migrant workers from Eastern Europe who live in very crowded, low standard conditions to save money. Government already declared there will be a change in rules to get rid of this. Will cost more, so meat prices are likely to go up.
Apparently something similar is happening in the US meat processing industry, though certainly no migrant workers from Bulgaria involved.Thanks for the update on Germany. Interesting to hear the Restaurants in Germany are open; we are a long way off from anything like that in Britain.
As you probably know, today (13th May) is the first day of Boris easing restriction on the lockdown in England; but the three Celtic Nations (Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) haven’t implemented those changes yet e.g. taking a more cautious approach.
The changes made are only modest (compared to what other countries are doing to ease the lockdown restrictions), but they are complex, which caused so initial confusion; but with the aid of a 50 page document published by the Government, explaining the changes in detail, most people have got an understanding of it.
Just to give some examples of some of the main changes:-
• Previously, no one (outside of the family unit) was allowed to visit or meet anyone else at their home or in public e.g. you were prohibited in visiting relatives in their home, or friends in public. Also, previously you were only allowed out of your home once a day, for a short period, to exercise locally; and you were prohibited from going out to buy non-essential items.
Now there is no restrictions on going out to exercise provided you observe ‘Social Distancing’ of 2 metres.
The new changes as from 13th May: You still cannot visit a friend or relative in their home, but you are now allowed to meet one other person in public provided you both are on your own and provided you observe the minimum 2 metre distance (Social Distancing).
• Another major change as from 13th May is that workers in manufacturing and construction industries are now encouraged to go back to work, provided their employer can fulfil strict Government guidance on ‘Social Distancing’ and Health and Safety in the workplace; and Garden Centres are now allowed open, provided they can also meet the Governments strict guidance on ‘Social Distancing’ etc. but they should avoid using public transport if possible, and are encouraged to either use their car, cycle or walk to work.
The precise details on strict Government guidance that employers have to meet were thrashed out by the Trade Unions and the Government on Monday of this week; so the Government has the full support of the Unions, and fortunately on Tuesday the Businesses gave their approval and support of the details thrashed out by the Trade Unions and Government.
It’s the first time in my life (and I think in the whole of British History) that a Conservative Government and the Trade Unions have worked together so amenably.
Another turn up for the books is after the Government’s meeting with the Trade Unions on Monday, is that the 80% of normal wages that those not able to work, is now being extended to October; albeit, as from August the Government wants Businesses to chip in on some of that cost. Before the Government’s meeting with the Trade Unions on Monday there was speculation that the scheme would be reduced to 60% from June and end in September; so the fact that the Conservative Government has agreed to the Trade Unions requests without question is another first!
From the start of the lockdown, until 13th May the only businesses allowed to operate were ‘essential services’ e.g. banks, post office, supermarkets, DIY stores and off-licences (liquor stores in the USA). Garden Centres were not classified as an essential service, and therefore closed, until now.
Some leisure industries, and smaller shops, may be allowed to open later in the year e.g. in about 6 weeks if the ‘R’ (Rate of Infection) remains below 1; but others like pubs and nightclubs etc. are not likely to be allowed to re-open for a long time to come yet.
One fascinating point that has transpired from the lockdown stems from the Government’s advice that people should work from home where possible. Before the pandemic Britain was moving in that direction anyway e.g. for the last five years before I took early retirement I worked from home 3 days a week, and only went into the office 2 days a week. Flexible working was introduced in Britain (on a voluntary basis) back in 1974, and ever since has gradually become more established throughout British Industry over the decades; so much so that in 2014 the Conservative Government passed a law making it a legal right for employees to ‘request’ flexible working.
How Two Major British Companies, Ford UK (Car manufacturer) and John Lewis (Retailer) Deal with the Flexible Working Laws in the UK: https://youtu.be/2Qs0EL6JWD0
Therefore, by this year, before the pandemic, 12% of the British workforce was working from home anyway. Since the lockdown that figure has jumped to 45%; which has obviously been a great help to the economy.This is something I don't quite understand. We have the same thing with Landlords and renters, and mortgage holders and homeowners.
If a landlord has no income coming in, who will do repairs and maintenance? Who will mow the lawn as a simplistic example, and who will fix the broken toilet or faucet?
Much the same with banks; without income, how will they pay their workers? Yet the cry has been going out to simply forgive these things...without any consideration at all towards how the landlord/bank/whatever will survive to provide the service the same people are demanding from them.I can only speak for the UK. In the UK, assuming you haven't been made redundant, if you are not working then the British Government is paying 80% of what you normally earn. Therefore, as the vast bulk of people are either still working (essential services) or being paid 80% of the normal wages by the Government, then most people in the UK currently have enough income to buy food, and pay all their bills including their rent or mortgage. So in the UK its not an issue.
And for those who have been made unemployed (which is less than 2 million) e.g. because their Company has gone bankrupt, then they get unemployment benefit from the Government (Welfare State), and although the Government doesn't pay your mortgage if you're unemployed they do pay your rent and you Local Tax (Rates), and as the NHS is free at the point of use for everyone, you don't have to worry about health insurance. So what little money you get on unemployment benefit is enough to live on, and pay all essential bills, without living in poverty.That hardly seems fair - if you rent you will have it paid, but if you're paying a mortgage you will be homeless.
But in any case, our (current) unemployment should be plenty to live on. The problem seems to be that that unemployment is not being paid out - people have been asking for weeks and weeks with no result. While I understand that the unemployment dept. is very badly overwhelmed with new cases, it still seems out of line. I believe that the guidelines/requirements from the federal govt. (which is paying a portion) failed to give clear instructions; couple with too many applicants at once the checks are simply not getting out.
Which leaves renters unable to pay rent; they have had zero money (or perhaps the $1200 "stimulus check") for over a month. Food lines are tremendous as there isn't enough to buy food, let alone pay rent.
But not sure that putting the landlord out of business, whereupon the bank takes the building and kicks everyone out, is the answer. I don't have one, but starving out the one providing the home isn't reasonable either.Yep, tell me about it. We bought our own home on a mortgage, and one of the fears of homeowners in Britain who are still paying their mortgage, in the event that you lose your job, and become unemployed long term, is that you will be forced to sell your house and live off the proceeds before the Local Government will give you a Council House (if you become homeless), and before you’ll be able to claim welfare. But on the converse side (unlike the USA) workers who have been employed by their employer for more than two years are protected by comprehensive ‘employment protection laws’ e.g. very difficult for an employer to sack someone; so there is a certain amount of job security.
Although I had a good job all my working life, and therefore was able to pay our mortgage off before I retired (so that we now own our house outright) some of our friends were not so lucky e.g. although they started off like us, working and paying a mortgage, they ended up having to sell their house when they became long term unemployed, and ended up in a Council House and on Welfare. But at least they do have a roof over their heads, and sufficient welfare to enjoy a reasonable standard of living.
What you describe for the USA, is a different picture to the UK. The furlough system in the USA is different to the furlough systems in Europe e.g. in the USA people being put on furlough during this crisis have to claim unemployment, which is taking ages to sort out because the system is overwhelmed, and the $1,200 cheque isn’t going to go far, when people get it, and the unemployment benefits is going to be a fraction of what they were earning.
Whereas, in the UK, people put on furlough are automatically paid 80% of their normal wage by the Government e.g. the Government pays the money to the Companies and the Companies pays their workers (staying at home and not working) that money on time as they normally would when paying wages; no delay because it’s the same infrastructure for paying wages, and those people on furlough (aka ‘gardening leave’ in the UK) receive a similar income to what they were getting e.g. their disposable income is the same; which is beneficial to the economy.
The difficulties come with the self-employed and unemployed. For those who have lost their jobs since the lockdown e.g. where businesses have gone bankrupt (less than 2 million in the UK), there is a six weeks delay before they get their unemployment benefit; but when they do get it paid, it is back dated to when they first became unemployed. So if they can’t pay their utility bills e.g. electricity, water, sewage etc., on time, the utility Companies know that they will get paid the following month, so they are very understanding. And as previously said, if you are unemployed in Britain, the Government pays your local taxes and rent anyway; so everybody gets paid.
The self-employed (like my son) have proved to be the trickiest for the Government, because (right from the start of the lockdown) the Government agreed to treat the self-employed the same as employees who can’t work e.g. pay 80% of their average net profit (based on the previous three years). And because that has to be calculated by Inland Revenue, the self-employed will not get paid until June (because of the time it will take to do all the calculations); but it will be back dated to the 23rd March (start of the lockdown). So it is a bit tough on the self-employed at the moment e.g. having to wait three months before they get paid by the Government (but it will be back dated), but like most people, most self-employed will have cash in the bank, and if they don’t have enough funds, most people have credit cards that they can borrow on in the short term. And it’s not as if they need huge sums of cash, they only really need cash for food, and perhaps rent to tie them over until they get their back-pay from the Government in June e.g. mortgage companies and utility companies in the UK are quite accommodating and are quite happy to wait three months, knowing that they will eventually get their money.
In the UK, banks foreclosing on the landlords, and kicking everyone out, isn’t the done thing. In the UK banks know what the situation is and are quite happy to be reasonable and wait for their money. Besides in the UK a landlord can’t just kick someone out e.g. in the UK tenants are protected by laws, so the process of getting a tenant evicted requires a ‘court order’, and can take anything up to six months in normal times.
Wilderness, you raise an interesting point. In G. we have similar rules in place. Tenents are allowed to postpone their rent payments until June or July to meet ends in these crisis times. Mortgage annuity payments are also allowed to be postponed.
You are right that landlords and/or banks may be affected. This is theory. My small world reality is: Some of my private business is being a landlord. None of my tenents have failed to meet their obligations yet. Same as i keep my annuity payments going.
As tax authorities are instructed not to insist on collecting taxes, i had asked my tax counselor if i could take advantage. Answer: Don´t abuse the system. Better keep things straight. Probably this is what 99% of people, tenents, businesses do.
As we have this issue with outbreaks in (2) meat processing plants, German government is shifting test strategies. So from now on, whereever an outbreak is detected, circumstances are analyzed and extrapolated. In this case it means: All 32.000 employees of German meat factories get testet.
Just read in the newspaper: Volkswagen had restarted their lines last week but already has to shutdown again. 2 reasons: lack of demand and missing supply chains. The economic fallout will haunt us much, much longer.The UK only started to ease the restrictions for the first time yesterday, by trying to encourage workers in manufacturing and the construction industries to go back to work, and for garden centres to re-open. So its too early to say how successful that will be and what impact on the virus will be; so any further easing will certainly not take place until June at the earliest.
However, one major advancement made today in the UK for easing the lockdown and restarting the economy, is that the UK Government has finally approved the 'antibody' test kit it wants to use. There's been a long delay in the British Government approving the antibody test kit to be used in Britain because the British Government was not prepared to accept anything that was less than perfect e.g. 100% accurate with no risk of 'false positives', something which has plagued so many other antibody test kits.
The anti-body test kit (which is planed by the British Government to be fundamental in getting people back to work) which has now been approved by the British Government, is a kit developed by Sweden; and under intensive trials in the UK it has proven to be 100% accurate.
So there is perhaps light at the end of the tunnel?Nathan, i hope the anti-body tests are reliable.
As far as i understand, there are two issues with the reliability.
- indifference in detecting corona-virus anti-bodies. Some, all or a few tests are not able to indentify Covid19. That is why all results from anti-body mass testing are treated with caution. Just recently a study from Spain was released that indicated a magnitude more infected and cured than officially registered. Germany has performed similar tests which had given comparable results to Spain. https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/14/cor … th-england
However those studies are heavily discussed and challenged in G.
- another issue is the time lag between infection and development of antibodies (heard of 2 weeks time). Having no anti-bodies does not mean you are not infected. On the contrary an asymptomatic infected can run around with a negative anti-body test result, but in reality being highly infectious.
In G. official numbers do not rely on anti-body tests. However you can buy the testkits on every corner for some 60 Euro, if you want to.
Stay safe and healthy.Yep I know, that's why it's breaking news in the UK e.g. the NHS/Government have so far rejected all previous kits because they have been unreliable; whereas the UK Government have independently verified to thier satisfaction that this kit (unlike other kits) is 100% accurate, and also unlike other kits, gives 'no false positives'.
The NHS has high standards, and they will, and do, reject any kit or equipment that does not meet thier standards. But what the NHS/Government are going to do with this kit, I don't know; no doubt we'll soon find out in the Government's daily briefing.
Certainly this kit is NOT a home testing kit, and not cheap either:-
The short video below sums it up:-
UK Developed Game Changing First Antibody Test Kit For Covid-19 With 100% Accuracy https://youtu.be/6XxOshFlZtY
NY and NJ are already beginning to loosen the restrictions here. This is a tribute to all who obeyed the medical advice and wore their masks and gloves and to the first responders who were out in full force giving up their own personal time with their families.
These were the 2 states hardest hit and now there has finally been a ray of hope.
As for the economy, Mother Nature always is in control. Humans hate to admit that.
For a long time, families were torn apart by greed of those who are now in a kind of virus limbo as Mother Nature intended.
When all people do is work 2 and 3 jobs and still cannot make ends meet, maybe this is an eye opener to what is really most important.
As for the greedheads in this country, it was long past time for the price gouging, the stiffing of employees and customers to end.
I laugh at these phonies who are now pretending to be generous benefactors of business giving out discounts and reducing prices. They can do it now but they couldn't before? Why?
I am a firm believer that all good things come to an end sooner or later.
Right now the economy is not as bad once you face the reality that the 1% still have $62 trillion sitting offshore in tax free accounts they earned in profits here in the US.
That should be repatriated but greedy people would rather see bread lines than give up one dime of that $62 trillion.
These greedy people would much rather deplete SS, Medicare and Medicaid than give up their offshore treasure troves.
When you consider they no longer can rely on employees to earn that kind of profit for them, I am thankful Mother Nature has put a nail in their greedy coffins.How are NY & NJ faring now; considering that the pandemic in the USA has now spiralled out of control?
Update Germany End of July:
It was made public, that the first German Corona infected person had lost his Covid-19 antibody immunity already some months ago.
The person got infected at a business meeting at company Webasto in Bavaria at the end of January. Attending was a Chinese employee who had unknowingly carried the virus from China to Germany. All had mild symptoms, but for contact no.1 immunity was gone only 3 months later.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-compan … 1583491807
The early outbreak at Webasto drew a lot of attention, because it showed what good management and swift action could accomplish. Also the first person was identified as well as how the infection spreading took place.
Looks like we should not rely to much on antibodies.
Currently in Germany active cases are rising again. People coming back from holidays and negligence of hygiene directives seem to be major causes. Probably by next week we will have mandatory testing at reentry to Germany. As everywhere, people get wary of wearing masks in closed public areas (shoppinh malls, stores, ...)
Whenever a local outbreak occurs, within hours remote test-sites are set up (even in small villages). Test probes are rushed to regional labs (seems to be an advantage of a highly decentralized structure).I see Germany is doing the same thing in regard to checking antibodies as the US. two months ago I received the antibodies test to determine if I had antibodies, I came back positive for IgG antibodies. This means at one point I had COVID. I was requested to come back six weeks later, which I have done. I was told I still had IgG antibodies. In six weeks I will be checked one more time. I was told when I first took the antibody test that it would be a blood draw not a finger stick. Apparently a finger stick is not as reliable.
It sounds as if Germany is doing all the right things to keep the COVID curve down.The issue with antibodies seems to be that Corona antibodies are also found in the blood of people who only had a servere cold.
In April/May a study was published in Germany about infection numbers in a certain county (Gangelt, Heinsberg). That study was based on antibody detection. An initial result suggested, that far more people had been infected than expected, supporting herd immunity. So in that state the "Ministerpräsident" (governor) wanted to open up early. However the study did not withstand scientific scrutiny. The leading scientist was heavily critisized for numerous errors and even taken to court.
Germany is not using antibody tests for Corona case follow up. However it is investigating how long antibodies persist in prooven Corona patients.
While there is no "season" for Corona, it is well likely that some people may catch the virus multiple times.I wonder how many more citizens will get their flu shot those fall. I see there are 3 to possibly 4 flu viruses expected to circulate. I would think that all health agencies would be prudent to run a vigorous campaign encouraging all to get the flu shot this fall.
One of the virus strains expected once again is A H1N1 which has similar symptoms to COVID. I think we will be in for lots of confusion this fall, although tests are available to test for the different flu that will visit us. I can imagine the run on ER's.In the UK the Government has already laid out its plans for this year’s round of flu vaccination:-
50% of the British population will get the ‘free’ flu vaccinations on the NHS; as follows:-
• Everyone in the UK over the age of 50.
• Teenagers.
• Everyone in vulnerable Groups e.g. people with underlying health conditions that put them at high risk from the flu.
The latest update from the UK is Boris’s obsession in encouraging people to lose weight because of his near death experience with Covid-19 at the height of the pandemic in April.
When Boris had his near death experience with Covid-19 in April, the most likely cause is that he is overweight e.g. being obese puts you in the high risk bracket for dying from Covid-19.
Because of Boris’s experience he has now become obsessed in encouraging obese people in Britain to lose weight, to help reduce their risk of death from Covid-19, and as part of that obsession he introduced new spending plans and new Legislation yesterday (28th July) as follows:-
• People who need to do more exercise or lose weight will now be able to get a free prescription on the NHS to hire bicycles (in the same way that infirm people can get Zimmer frames, and other essential aids from the NHS for free). Just in the same way that you get a prescription from your doctor for medicine.
• A trial scheme (pilot) is being tested, where anyone who is interested in cycling can get £50 ($65) ‘bicycle Repair vouchers’ (Government Funded) to encourage people to cycle.
• Thousands of miles of NEW cycle lanes are to be created across Britain (Government funded), adding to the existing 12,739 miles of cycle tracks that already exist in the UK.
• Government Assistance will be available for people to get electrically powered bicycles if they don’t want peddle power.
• More parking spaces for bicycles is to be made at train stations, and storage space for bicycles on busses and trains.
• More parking spaces are to be installed at transport hubs, in towns and city centres, and outside public buildings. And money raised will be used to build bike hangars and on street storage for bicycles for people who don’t have space to keep their bike at home.
• The Highway Code will be strengthened to give better protection for pedestrians and cyclists e.g. raising safety standards.
• Government Funding to create 12 ‘Mini Hollands’ around Britain, of which at least one will be a ‘zero-emission transport city centre’ e.g. traffic free zones in city centres which cycles and pedestrians can use safely.
Boris does have some experience in this area e.g. the Boris Bike which he introduced in London when he was the elected Mayor of London before becoming an MP.
The definitive 2 minute guide to Boris Bikes: https://youtu.be/J0H73dngFtk
This badly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD9XWTbbSGA
- "Measures implemented just two weeks earlier could have saved 90% of the dead in America."
- "A country the size of the US should expected to have five times the amount of deaths than South Korea. Instead, the rate is 250 times greater."Yep, very informative video: It’s interesting that not only Trump, but many American’s think of Coronavirus as a flu, when it’s not. Unlike flu, Coronavirus is not seasonal e.g. unlike flu which prefers colder weather, Coronavirus thrives in any climate; as we’ve seen the world through. So contrary to many American News Media (which I’ve seen) suggesting that it would subside in the summer and come back again in the autumn as a second wave is a misconception; it’s here all year round, until, and unless, decisive action is taken to minimise the spread, and ultimately a reliable and safe vaccine is approved and widely distributed.
On this note, I noted the recent opinion polls indicating that once a vaccine is developed that one third of Americans will refuse to be vaccinated against covid-19?
Update on the latest UK Government’s SOFT (Successes, Opportunities, Failures and Threats) with respect to their fight against Covid-19.
NB: SOFT is a feedback loop Britain’s Government Departments uses to monitor progress in an ongoing Project as a tool to help regularly tweak a Project and keep it on course.
#1. OPPORTUNITY: The possibility of having 30 million vaccines for Britons (half the British Population) by October is looking promising; but obviously no guarantees at this stage as it all depends on the outcome of the large scale trials in October.
SUMMERY:
• Work by Oxford University and Imperial College London University on vaccines are progressing well.
• Phase one participants of the Oxford University trials received their vaccine dose earlier this week.
• Clinical trials in June.
• Mass trials are scheduled for October.
• The pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca (a British-Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical company based in Cambridge, England) has finalised a "global licensing agreement" with Oxford University with the UK’s Government support.
• The agreement between the UK’s Government and AstraZeneca is that if the June trials are successful AstraZeneca will manufacture 100 million doses by September, of which the UK will get the first 30 million doses, and the remainder 70 million to be made available to developing countries at a low (affordable) cost to them.
• In conjunction with this the UK Government is currently constructing a ‘Vaccines Manufacturing Innovation Centre’ due to open in the summer of 2021, which in the future will be capable of producing enough vaccine doses for the entire UK population within six months.
#2. SUCCESS: Just 170 Covid-19 related deaths recorded yesterday: The lowest since the lockdown two months ago; and part of the recent continuing downward trend.
#3. THREAT: Track, Trace and Isolate:
• Back in March the UK Government quickly abandoned its initial attempts to ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ because by that time the virus was spreading faster than it could be isolated because the British Government didn’t act decisively enough at the start.
• Since then there has been growing pressure on the Government to adopt the Google and Apple app which has been so successful in South Korea and across the world in ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’. However, it hasn’t because the Google and Apple app operates in a decentralised way and the Government wants an app that pools the data centrally mainly to better provide stats that the Government can use in policy making for fighting the virus!
• Instead the UK Government got the NHS to produce a bespoke tracking app that provides the statistical data in the way the Government wants it.
• That NHS tracking app, called NHSX, has been on trial on the Isle of Wight since the 5th May.
• The Isle of Wight is an ideal testing ground for such an app because it’s a small island off the south coast of England, separated from mainland England by sea, with a contained population of over 140,000 people.
• The trials have been thwart with problems, mainly due to security constraints in modern smartphones that only Google and Apple can work around, and privacy concerns by the public that may deter some people from using the app!
• Nevertheless the NHS has been tweaking the software app to make it work, in spite of the technical issues e.g. part of the reason for the trials on the Isle of Wight is to iron out any technical issues. And also, the Government is going to great lengths to stress that ‘privacy and confidentiality’ of personal data will be guaranteed.
• For the tracing app to be of any great benefit as a tool for ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ the Government is looking for at least 60% of UK citizens to use the tracking app on their mobile phones. Initially (in the first week of the trials) only about 40% of citizens on the Isle of Wight downloaded the app, but I think the take-up has increased since then.
• In any event, if the trials on the Isle of Wight are successful then the Government is planning to role the app out (in its modified format) nationwide, across the whole of the UK by the end of May. Albeit, some ‘experts’ advising the Government are keen for the Google and Apple to be used instead (as Plan B) because it has been extensively tried and tested throughout the world, and has proved extremely successful in helping South Korea keeping their country virtually virus free.
So the main threat, if the NHS tracing app goes live in the UK at the end of the month is that not sufficient people will use it because of fears of breach of ‘privacy and confidentiality’; but time will tell!
The way the NHS tracing app works is that if a user becomes unwell with symptoms of Covid-19, they can choose to let the app inform the NHS. They will then be offered testing, and an anonymous alert will inform other app users with whom they spent time over the previous few days. In conjunction with this 18,000 contact tracers will be hired to ‘track and trace’ and help ‘isolate’ (of which 17,000 have already been hired in preparation of the app going live UK wide soon).
Pros and Cons of the NHS Tracing App (News Report just 1 week before it went on Trial in the Isle of Wight): https://youtu.be/5yYbsqvhe7cNathan, in my understanding at least in Germany the Corona tracing app is not used widely.
Tracing is done on county level by local authorities, who set aside dedicated staff to indentify contacts of Covid19 positives. As testing directives have shifted, the app is more of a brute force instrument and not what is needed now. (Very low hit rate on infected, we are searching the needle in the haystack, so we better use a metal detector than our eyes and fingers..)
For example by personal contact to our "Gesundheitsamt" i got the information, that the only 5 people still infected in our city are from within a "clan", a large, multigerneration family with migrant background from the Middle East.
This kind of information is concentrated to state and federal level to organise testing. So - if this type of infection scheme is discovered somewhere else in the country, decisions may be made to test all "clan" family members.
This already happened to the meat industry, where all 30something thousand were tested.
What i am saying: Like in a chess game, the opening game is easy, in the middle game brute force doesn´t help, you need other strategies.
Green areas (= zero infected within 7 days) are growing.
Yep, Germany’s approach is very effective (as proven by the achievement); in typical German style (which I admire), very efficient.
Yep, the tracing app is blunt instrument, which is why the UK Government is so keen on making it more resourceful by using their own bespoke version rather than the Google/Apple version e.g. with the Google/Apple version the data is ‘decentralised’, it remains on the persons own smart phone (privacy and security), while the Government want to gather that information from the smart phones and store it in a central database to provide additional up-to-date information on the concentration of infected people, where they’ve been and how many other people they’ve been in contact with; so as to add to data already being collected from other sources.
Yep, reliant on a tracing app alone would be like “searching the needle in the haystack”, which is why the UK Government sees it as just one of ‘Three Key’ Resource to aid “Track, Trace and Isolate”, the 2nd ‘key resource’ being the 18,000 contact tracers the Government plan to hire; they’ve already employed 17,000, whom I assume are currently being trained for when the Government starts ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ in earnest. I’m not sure what the 3rd key resource tool is, they didn’t specify it in yesterday’s briefing; but at least they do have a ‘plan’!
Where I think the British Government is failing is that it has spent too much time in preparation, rather than acting fast e.g. Britain should have been hiring and training contact tracers on a large scale much sooner, and they should already be operational; whereas, it looks as if this next phase of fighting Covid-19 may not be fully operational until the 31st May at the earliest e.g. lost time.
However, once the UK Government gets into full swing, which it hopes to achieve by the end of month, it does want to be able to produce live, interactive, up-to-date, detailed and accurate maps like your example; to give the Government the option to be flexible in its decision making and targeting etc. The source data to help the UK Government to build up such detailed maps being fed in from many sources e.g. the NHS tracing app (if it’s trials on the Isle of Wight are successful), ONS data, data from the NHS and other bodies, and updated data from the ‘contact tracers’ etc.
Arthur e.g. my son's name is Nathan (gift), and I named my websites 'nathanville' after the model railway village I and my son built in our loft, when our son was a kid.Good News: No New Cases Reported in East England, including London, in over 24 hours.
Also, Boris has now decided to increase the number of Human Tracers from 18,000 to 25,000; most already recruited, and full training underway to go live with full scale 'Track, Trace and Isolate' from the 1st June.Indeed, good news.
Do you know why recovered are not counted in the UK? You don´t get a clear picture without overview on active cases.Good question, it was initially, but as an oversight, deaths in care homes and at home were not counted in the Official figures during the first six week of the pandemic; that error has since been corrected so the daily figures now reported do show deaths in hospitals, in care homes and at home.
However, while it’s relatively easy to know how many in hospitals recover from Covid-19, knowing how many people have recovered from Covid-19 in care homes and at home isn’t as clear because the UK Government’s capacity to test on mass has been hampered with numerous logistic problems; all of which are predominantly now sorted e.g. the Government is finally in a position where it can now start to test the General Public at large as necessary.Chris, I do now have the definitive answer to your question; which was revealed by the Government today, to its own embarrassment: And which might put a smile on your face, as it is a bit of a Monty Python style botch.
Recovered is counted in the Celtic Nations (Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). However, due to an error in the Administrative system in England, no one in England who has tested positive for Covid-19 is ever recorded as recovering, statistically. The error came to light recently when the Government started to question why deaths in the Celtic Nations (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) are now near zero, but not in England. And on investigation the UK Government discovered that people who tested positive for Covid-19 months’ back but subsequently died more recently of causes not related to Covid-19 e.g. being run over by a bus, were being added to the Government stats as a Covid-19 death.
Fortunately, it hasn’t affected the Stats published by the ONS (Office of National Statistics), as they collect their data independently of the Government; therefore the ONS figures (which are now published weekly rather than monthly) are still the more accurate.
Two months in and only 37.5 billion of the 500 billion for business relief has been issued.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/none … 58752.htmlHaving looked at some figures on GDP and debt development, i would say that the US looses some 15 billion per day of lockdown. With 60 plus days that makes a rough 900 billion and counting.
Is this 500 billion enough? I would say - not, even if it were only for business. How much do private households get?It was admitted yesterday by the White House that stimulus money intended for small businesses paid Barron Trump's private elite school, $1.2 million. Why? None of the public schools are getting a dime. And those who send their kids to that private elite school are 1% who can afford tuition.
It is also known that one of Trump's own hotels got stimulus money. Why? He claiims he is a billionaire.
Cool: In Victorian Britain such people were called 'Quacks'.
UK UPDATE:
Scandal
You’ve probably heard in the last couple of days of Dominic Cummings, a Senior Government Official (Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister), being caught in flouting the ‘lockdown’ rules in the UK. He’s not the first Government Official to break the rules, but he is the first one to not be apologetic, and not to resign.
Of the other two to be caught out:-
• One broke the rules by allowing his fiancé visit him in his home on two occasions; he apologised, and immediately resigned, and
• Another broke the rules by travelling to her home in the country on two occasions, instead of staying put in her town house; she apologised, and immediately resigned.
However, Dominic Cummings (The Personal Advisor) is a nasty piece of work that a lot of people would like to see the back of, including many in the Conservative Party; especially as prior to the pandemic he had become the most powerful person in the UK.
Dominic Cummings is a politician, a professional, nor a Government employee e.g. civil servant. He is just a private individual who became the Senior Advisor to the ERG Group within the Conservative Party, masterminded the ‘Vote Leave’ Campaign, formulated all the Brexit policies for Boris Johnson and organised Boris Johnsons Election Victory in the recent General Election.
The ERG Group (European Research Group) is an inner party within the Conservative Party, who are extreme hard-right-wing anti EU Nationalists; just a small group of MPs on the far right of the Conservative Party, representing the views of less than 10% of the views of the Conservative Party.
Boris Johnson, whose only main ambition for years was to become Prime Minister, at any cost, seized upon the ERG as his ticket to realising ambitions, and put his support behind supporting the ERG in exchange for their support in making him Prime Minister. And he has subsequently rewarded their support by making virtually the whole of his Government Cabinet ERG Members.
Consequently, Boris feels a deep sense of loyalty to Dominic Cummings, and is very dependent on Dominic Cummings for advice and guidance because one of the failing of Boris is that he is renowned in not being bothered in reading Official Government Documents e.g. he was most famously caught out on camera last year when during an interview over Brexit he didn’t understand the rules on the WTO Tariffs which (based on Advice from Dominic Cummings) he advocates in using in preference to a Trade Deal with the EU.
Therefore, without Dominic Cummings, Boris would feel loss. Since becoming Prime Minister, Boris (on the Advice of Dominic Cummings) also made Dominic Cummings Senior Advisor to every Government Department, putting a wedge between Government Departments and the Civil Service, which is unprecedented because it’s tradition that the Civil Service Advise Government Departments (not Advisors); this, quite naturally, led to the resignation of one senior Government Minister, who resigned on principle.
However, since the lockdown in the UK Boris has had the good sense to brush Dominic Cummings to one side, and instead listen to the Advice of the Scientific and Medical Experts, in fighting the pandemic; to the relief of politician, including many Conservative MPs.
While, Boris may feel a strong sense of loyalty to Dominic, I doubt Dominic has any loyalty towards Boris (he’s not that type of person) e.g. Dominic has a fascination for Dictators, especially those historically in Russia and Germany, part of the reading material he is known to like.
Resulting from yesterday’s controversy, because Boris is sticking his neck out to stick up for Dominic, in one fell swoop, Boris’s loyalty to Cummings has undermined all the good work Boris has done to build up ‘Public Trust’ in the Government.
Consequently, the controversy is rumbling on, with over 20 Conservative MPs pressing for Cummings to resign, and today, one Government Minister resigning in protest. Also, the Public Trust built up in Boris, for his handling of the pandemic, has taken a severe knock; according to the latest opinion polls, his personal rating has plunged down to just 1% controversy. although the British Public in general are, Is showing a maturity, and not letting the revelations of Boris detract from the need to continue to observe the strict lockdown policies, for the common good of the nation.
Details of yesterday’s controversy can be read here: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi … spartandhp
Forward Plan for Easing the Restrictions
In spite of the above controversy, now that all the graphs for infections and deaths are still on the downward trend, the slow and steady phased plans for easing up on the lockdown and re-opening the British economy is still on course as follows:-
Schools:
Schools in England are to start re-opening from the 1st June (a phased reopening), but not without controversy.
Initially parents, Trade Unions, Schools and some Medical Advisors were not in favour of reopening the schools so soon; and talks between the Government and these bodies had met a deadlock. However, the Medical Advisors came around to supporting the Government provided sufficient progress is made by the 1st of June in the Government’s ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ program.
In the end it was decided that the final decision would be left to each individual school (and the parents).
As from the 1st June open air markets and car showrooms in England are allowed to reopen, provided they have proper ‘Social Distancing’ measures in place, in accordance with the Government’s Social Distancing Rules.
Then As from 15th June, Retail Shops in England will be allowed to reopen, provided they also have proper ‘Social Distancing’ measures in place, in accordance with the Government’s Social Distancing Rules.
Testing, and ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’
The Government is still struggling to maintain its own targets on testing, but steady progress is being made, and the 25,000 testers are now almost fully trained for when ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ goes live on the 1st June, but the nationwide rollout of the Government’s pet ‘trace app’ (which was developed by the NHS) will be delayed a few weeks, due to logistic problems with the trials.
The Full Scale Nationwide Antibodies Testing to be done by the NHS
The Government has now bought 10 million antibody test kits developed by Sweden to be used by the NHS over the coming months to test 20% of the British Public.
Preliminary trial antibody tests indicate that about 15% of Londoners have been exposed to the virus, London being where half the infections and deaths have been; and about 5% of the rest of the population. So if the full scale antibody testing gets similar results, then in spite of the high death toll in the UK, we are a very long way from achieving herd immunity.
Divergence
While England now has its own schedule plan for gradually easing up on the lockdown restrictions; the three Celtic Nations (Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales) are moving at a different pace.
Scotland has only just relaxed the lockdown, which was introduced in England a couple of weeks ago, to bring it in line with England e.g. people now allowed to spend more time outside exercising.
Northern Ireland have also now similarly eased up on the restrictions, but gone one step further by allowing groups of people in public up to six; whereas in the rest of the UK people can only be outside in groups of two individuals.
Wales is being more cautious, and hasn’t eased up on any of the restrictions yet. So while people in England can now travel any distance as part of their daily exercise, they can’t in wales e.g. the police in Wales still have road blocks, and will impose a fine on anyone travelling, if it’s not an essential journey.
Unlike England, none of the Celtic Nations are in any hurry to re-open their economy; currently, their approach is a far more cautious one....However, the Medical Advisors came around to supporting the Government provided sufficient progress is made by the 1st of June in the Government’s ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ program....
This looks like the UK is going for herd immunity. I understand ..sufficient.. in the context of protecting the health care system through the new tracking program.
May be i am wrong, but this is a dangerous strategy. Current situation in Sweden and Germany show, that whatever you do or don´t do (lockdown, early countermeasures or no lockdown), on the long run you can´t protect the elderly most in jeopardy.
By now in Germany we have some 10.000 active cases left and decreasing, this is less than 1% of US cases, for the UK no numbers available.
Even with this relative small number of cases under surveillance, you are not safe. Just last week we had 2 local outbreaks. One in a church congregation in Frankfurt (choir singing) and one fairly close to us in Northern Germany.
The latter was a private event, a reopening of a fancy restaurant, gathering with friends. At least one guest was infected, probably hygene and distancing rules not obeyed. By now there are some 12 .. 15 infected and tracing is active, so another 170 people were ordered into quarantine and more to come. One guest was a local politician of my city. Now part of our city council is isolated. Another guest was the HR manager of Germany´s largest shipyard. Now top management and work council of the shipyard are in quarantine.
The infection spreading is exponential and the tracing must be able to keep up. Not an easy task.That first statement e.g. "Medical Advisors coming around to supporting the Government, in respect to re-opening schools next week, provided sufficient progress has been made with the Government’s ‘Track, Trace and Isolate’ program", stems from the fact that the UK Government has constantly struggled to meet its own targets on testing.
It hasn’t been due to the lack of enthusiasm, it’s due to various logistic problems, including the high ‘Quality’ standards set by the NHS and Government e.g. each batch of test kits the NHS receives is quality tested and any that doesn’t meet the British High Standards will be rejected.
One thing it’s not ‘is the Government going for herd immunity’; Boris abandoned that idea at the end of February.
Preliminary antibody testing carried out by the NHS, as part of the Government’s scheme to gather data for policy making, indicates that while about 15% of Londoners have had the virus at some point; only 5% of the people in the rest of the population have anti-bodies to the virus.
Therefore we are a LONG WAY from herd immunity.
Over the coming months the NHS will be testing 20% of the population for anti-bodies to get a far more accurate picture.
At the end of February (before SAGE become fully operational) Boris was advocating heard immunity; but he changed his mind within the week. SAGE is the UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, set up in 2009 by the Labour (Socialist) Government to advice the Government at times such as this. SAGE consists of over 50 Scientific and Medical Experts, and during each day’s Government TV broadcast to the Nation (at 5pm) the daily updates are given by one Government Minister in the centre with one Scientific Advisor from SAGE on one side and one Medical Advisor from Sage on the other side. The Update usually lasts about 20 minutes, followed by 20 minutes of Q&A from the General Public and then 20 minutes of Q&A from the Press.
Since the beginning of March Boris has relied very heavily on SAGE, and generally taken their Advice at every step of the way e.g. an attitude that lives are more important than the economy.
During the 1st weeks of March Boris did try to set up a comprehensive ‘track, trace and isolate’ program like South Korea; and he even went as far as getting ‘drive through’ test centres set-up throughout the UK. However, his first attempt failed miserably, and the whole scheme abandoned in favour of a full and tough lockdown on the 23rd March.
Since then the Government have been busy trying to develop and rollout mass testing, with limited success; and it only really got off the ground on the 30th April, and as from tomorrow it will be stepped up with 25,000 human testers who have only just finished their training; with the NHS tracing app due to follow within a few weeks (if it passes its trial period).
As regards whether re-opening schools will cause a second peak is something the Government will be carefully monitoring; which is why the UK Government is tentatively re-opening the economy in stages over two or more months; with a minimum of two week gaps between each phase e.g. so that if the ‘R’ rate (rate of infection) rises above ‘1’ then any easing of the lockdown can be quickly reversed.
The reason the British Government is keen on its ‘pet’ NHS tracing app is because it sees it as one of three key tools that the human tracers will be using to gather ‘live’ data on where the spread of the virus is, and where the hot spots are. The concept the Government envisages is developing a ‘smart’ map (like I think Germany uses) so that if the virus does start to peak again sections of the community (the hot spots) can be isolated and quarantined, without having to lockdown the whole country or region. An ambitious plan; and it remains to be seen in how successful the Government is in making it work.
Yep, I know the infection spreading is exponential and the tracing must be able to keep up. And yes, as the British Government has found out to its cost, it’s not an easy task.
Yep, ‘active cases’ is something missing from the UK Stats. I don’t know how many active cases there are within the community, I only know how many people are currently in hospital with Covid-19.
• Currently, there are 8,879 people in hospitals in the UK with Covid-19, which is down from 10,037 a week ago. Obviously not all on ventilators, currently only 11% of the ventilators are in use, down from 14% last week.
• Yesterday, there were 472 new admissions to hospital with Covid-19, which is down from 637 a week ago.
Other States, which you may find useful include:-
To date, there have been 267,240 confirmed cases in the UK, reaching its peek between the 30th April and 6th May, when there were over 6,000 new cases a day. Since then it’s been in a steady decline and is now down to around 2,000 new cases a day.
To date (in spite of all the problems with testing) the Government have managed to do 3,798,490 tests; and achieved 117,013 new tests yesterday.
In its daily briefing to the Nation at 5pm the Government issues two Official figures for deaths; its own figure based on confirmed covid-19 deaths, which stands at 37,460, and the ONS (Office of National Statistics) figures, which also includes suspected but not confirmed deaths from Covid-19 e.g. comparing the current death rates with the national average for the UK averaged out over the past five years; and that figures stands at 45,231.
Below are a couple of the charts shown on TV today during the Government’s Daily Briefing to the Nation at 5pm.
Arthur, reading your comprehensive status on the UK, it looks like you are still in emergency mode with daily briefings and a lot of stuff the government is organising.
In G. situation is more relaxed. No daily press conferences on Covid19 any more. No counting of how many tests per day. Everyone knows, there is enough testing capacity.
There is hospital monitoring set up to display the load situation. By now there are less than 800 Covid19 patients in ICUs, some 450 with ventilators, total capacity is more than 32,000 ICU beds.
Much more attention is payed to how the tracing is performing. Sometimes i have the impression that they are eager to find an outbreak so they can verify their assumptions. There is criticism on the time lost from first infection to hunting down all contacts. It takes some 2 days to identify positives and almost a week to find all contacts. Too long to be on the safe side.Yes we are still in ‘emergency mode’ in the UK; but that is only a political ploy to keep the British Public engaged and ‘on-board’ in supporting the Government to fight the virus by encouraging the public to continue to adhere to what are still quite strict lockdown rules; in spite of the fact that we past the peak over a month ago and new cases and deaths are dropping significantly by the week.
Currently the ‘R’ Rate (rate of infection) in the UK is around 0.7; the ‘R’ rate being the main indicator the Government is using as a guide on whether to tighten the lockdown or ease up on it. It’s why the Government’s schedule plan for easing the restrictions and re-opening the economy has no fixed dates, just provisional dates which can be amended at a moment’s notice if the ‘R’ rate suddenly rises or falls.
If the Government didn’t continue with airing its daily briefings to the Nation at Prime Time on ALL British News Channels then it’s likely people would become complacent and start to ignore the strict ‘Social Distancing’ Rules e.g. people are still only allowed to be out in public in pairs, and you can only meet one other person in public if you yourself are on your own; and we are still not allowed to visit other people in their own homes (family or friends). And in spite of the strict Social Distancing rules over 90% of the British Pubic are faithfully following those rules.
In practice, at the moment, the crisis is over in the sense that the ‘R’ rate has been below 1 for over three weeks, and an increasing number of Regions are more frequently going 24 hours without a single death e.g. London, Northern Ireland, South West England etc. Most of the deaths are currently in the hot spots, such as North West England.
I don’t currently have data on spare capacity in the hospitals other than only 11% of ICU beds are occupied, and their need is falling by the week; so plenty of spare capacity.
Yes, the performance of tracing (which finally started in the UK in full earnest today) will be critical; and that’s why the UK Government is so keen on getting its NHS Tracing app rolled out; albeit its rollout is delayed for a few weeks, while the Government sorts out a few technical issues during the trials.
As you said, with human tracers, it can take some 2 days to indemnify positive, and then almost a week to find all contacts manually; whereas if the NHS trace app works as intended, its process is automatic and immediate e.g. once one person using the app is identified as being covid-19 positive, everyone else who has been in close contact with that person will automatically get a computer generated text message warning them, and asking them to contact the NHS for a test and to self-isolate in the meantime. The ‘NHS tracing app’ (if when its rolled out) will keep track of people’s movements and locations via GPS on their smart phones; and updates the NHS database and interactive map with live data as an additional resource at the disposal of the human tracers.
The first chart below is the UK’s Government’s Action Plan for easing the lockdown. We moved into step one a couple of weeks ago e.g. the restriction on exercising outside just once a day, and within a short walking distance from home has been lifted. We move into Step 2 on Monday e.g. schools reopening. And provided ‘R’ remains below ‘1’ we should be moving to Step 3 in July e.g. Restaurants etc., will be allowed to re-open, provided they following strict ‘Social Distancing’ and other safety guidelines stipulated by the Government.
The 2nd Chart governs the time of the first chart e.g. UK now moving from level 4 to level 3.
Ich wish the UK all the luck they can get a hold of. This virus is really tricky.
Concerning the R-number, i provide a chart, which is daily updated, sorry German text description only.
It is very telling for how long you have to keep the R-number below 1 for some success. Peak of registered active cases was on April 5th, 8 weeks ago and still 10,000 active cases left.
Hospital ICU usage is also updated daily (currently going down by 50 per day).
With the tracking mode in G., there is always the issue with the first Covid19 positive person. This person has to be tracked both directions in time. Whom they had contact with after identification and whom they had contact with before.Danke schön
Yep, even with the ‘R’ rate below ‘1’ it takes time to work its way out of the system, with a risk of a flair-up if the Government takes its eye off the ball for a moment; a most stubborn virus.
Yeah, I appreciate that with human tracers, tracing those who have been in close contact with an infected person in both directions in time is tricky and time consuming; that’s where (if/when it is rolled out nationally) the NHS smartphone tracing app will come into its own, and be a big aid to the human tracers e.g. through GPS tracking of the smart phones, the app will already have saved to the centralised NHS database every other person (using the app) who has been in close contact with that person, when and for how long. The app database software has been written to highlight everyone who has been within 2 metres of an infected person for more than 15 minutes over the previous 2 weeks.
In spite of it being in German I found the chart useful e.g. from the chart it looks as if the ‘R’ rate in both Germany and the UK are currently around the 0.7 value.
Talking about the German language, although regrettably I can only speak English (and Bristolian), the UK (as you may know) doesn’t speak just one language today, but a multitude of Languages, dialects and accents; various Celtic languages e.g. Manx, Scottish, Irish, Welsh and Cornish (Kernow) etc. as well as English. So I do have quite a fascination for the history of languages in the UK and their origins.
Most particular, I find it quite fascinating in that the English language is the product of the amalgamation of ‘old German’ (the Angles, Saxons and Jutes from Germany in the 5th century) with ‘old French’ (the Norman invasion of 1066).
This video below comprehensively covers the history of the different languages spoken today in the UK:-
Languages of the British Isles: https://youtu.be/ODeYttUY4VIThis tracing app is almost as tricky as the virus itself. Apparently the technology behind (no matter UK or Germany) is Bluetooth communication. And here is where tech freaks start to question:
How to identify false alarms: f.e.
2 smartsphone rest in neighbouring lockers in a gym, public pool.. Is that direct contact?
In a restaurant people are sitting outside and inside, separated by a window.
Modern office buildings often have light construction walls. Good for noise damping, but not supporting reliabilty of contact incidents.
Bluetooth frequencies are well shielded by human bodies. If have your smartphones in your shirt pocket (as i always do), you can stand shoulder to shoulder and not trigger an incident.
Then there is the mathematical issue: If the app coverage in population is not high enough, it will not work. Example: 60% coverage gives a 60% x 60% = 36% incident detection probability. If you add all the false alarms or other problems, the hit rate will easily drop to 20%, even if deep learning software is used to sort out some obvious false alarms.
Even with 80% app coverage you don´t get better than 35% hit rate. That is 1 out of 3. Does administration really want to rely on this?
Sorry, i sometimes get into analysing and lecturing mode (have done this all my professional life)
2 days have passed from my previous comment. Changed situation in G. allows for individual tracking of local outbreaks. This restaurant incident i mentioned is now at 35 infected and 260 people in quarantene. A new outbreak yesterday with 50 infected and already 170 in isolation was again associated with a church congregation and open singing. I am sure that German government will no more allow church congregations, lessons learned.
Thanks for the interesting video link on languages in Britain. Reminds of a hard time communicating to taxi drivers while i had business in Prestwick, Scotland. Never had a problem in other parts of the country. Was refreshing to talk to Cockney people in London, but no comparison to this Scottish, Gaelish. That was a real treat :-).
My take on languages you may find in an old comment here: https://hubpages.com/education/second-l … y#commentsYep, you are perfectly right, as always.
The UK Government was hoping to achieve a take-up of at least 60%, but in the trials on the Isle of Wight only 43% have down loaded the NHS tracing app, because there is concern by the British Public that the Government will not keep personal data private and secure; in spite of constant reassurance by the Government that it is perfectly safe. And those concerns are not helped by the fact that the Government wants to keep the personal data for 25 years before destroying it!
The main delay in rolling out the app (which should have been rolled this coming Monday, but which is delayed by several weeks) is to iron out some of the technical issues along the lines you describe.
On a positive note; the app isn’t intended as the only tool to be used by the human tracers, it’s just one of three key tools the human tracers will be using; so although it may not be perfect, it will be an additional aid; for what it’s worth.
In spite of the above issues, two of the 50 SAGE Advisors are publically warning that the Government should delay phase 2 of the easing of the lockdown for a few weeks so that the lockdown is eased at the same time as the app, and not before!
The short clip from the UK Government’s Daily Briefing to the Nation three days ago explains the Government’s strategy on ‘Test and Trace’, as it currently stands; albeit it will be tweaked overtime.
Coronavirus UK: Government launches test and trace programme for COVID-19 (27th May): https://youtu.be/609679_byNw
Thanks for the language link, very informative. The big issue I have with the British Education System is that school children in Britain don’t start learning a 2nd language until they are 11, which is far too late; and which is why I was never able to learn a 2nd language; except for Bristolian (as I’m Bristolian born and breed). I think school children should start learning a 2nd language by at least the age of 7, if not earlier.
Nevertheless, in holidaying in France yearly since the mid 1990’s I have gradually learnt to be able to read and understand some basic French on food labels and posters etc., which is useful; and from our frequent trips to Belgium I’ve picked up a small handful of rudimentary German (or German like) words they sometimes use on their menus in restaurants and cafes.
Yes Scottish can be difficult, even to English people who are more familiar with their dialect and accent; below, this is one humorous occasion in Parliament when an English MP failed to understand a Scotsman:
English MP fails to understand Glaswegian accent: https://youtu.be/I4k8dR04TzA
My own accent and dialect is Bristolian. One of my favourite humorous songs by the Wurzels (famous in the 70’s), sung in Bristolian is “Thee's Got'n Where Thee Cassn't Back'n, Hassn't”, which means “You’ve got in where you can’t back it out, haven’t you”. Other words to look out for in the song includes ‘girt’ which means ‘very big’; bis means “you”; ‘O arrh’ means ‘Oh Yes’ etc.
Adge cutler & The wurzels Thee's Got'n Where Thee Cassn't Back'n, Hassn't: https://youtu.be/AnKjwOLiBTgUpdate G.:
There are by now strong recommendations by Robert Koch Institute ( German Government Health Science branch) to follow Japan´s strategy to pay special attention to "superspreading" events or situations.
Past 2 weeks made clear that all local outbreaks could be assigned to:
- large family clans
- meat and food processing industry with migrant workers in precariously cheap and crowded housing conditions
- church congregations with open choir singing
- indoor gathering (restaurant openings)
All outbreaks were indoor attributed. :-) I have hope for the recent beach party people from lake of the Ozarks, Missouri.
By now the R-factor gets difficult to interpret, because majority of new infections come from only a few superspreading events. Makes the statistical R-factor computation no more applicable.Thanks for the update Chris.
It’s too early for the British Government to have such detailed information at the movement, as the Government has only just started it’s detailed ‘track, trace and isolate’ programme; but it is data the Government is keen to gather so that it can make ‘informed’ decisions.
However, from the four items you list, the current situation in the UK is:-
1. Large Family Clans:- It’s only from today that the lockdown has been eased in this area e.g. for the first time since the 23rd March up to six people can now meet ‘outside’ (including private gardens) from no more than two families; but they must keep 2m apart. Meeting inside your own house is still prohibited.
2. Meat and food processing industry with migrant workers: - Unlike the USA and Germany, we haven’t so far had any major outbreak of the virus within the food industry. We haven’t had the migrant workers either because since the Brexit Referendum in 2016 the large number of migrant workers have refused to come to the UK during the summer, with the result that many British farms are struggling to get the work force to pick crops; with the result that in the past two years two thirds of the summer fruits have been left to rot in the fields e.g. 16 million apples were left to rot on the trees last year due to the lack of worker.
The British Conservative Government was banking on the British unemployed wanting to do the work e.g. it’s not cheap labour; under British Law everyone (regardless to whether they are British or immigrant) get paid the same ‘legal’ minimum wage; but hard manual labour is something the Brits don’t like doing.
And the current Pandemic has just made matter worse e.g. last month there was just 112 British applicants for fruit picking, to make up for the short fall of the 50,000 EU seasonal migrants that would (pre Brexit) normally have come to the UK for the summer.
To get around the problem, a lot of British Strawberry farms have now switched to ‘pick your own’, since the Brexit Referendum, because the British Public love picking their own fruit as a leisure activity (day out). These were closed to the public until recently (as part of the lock-down) because ‘Garden Centres’ were not classified as ‘an essential service’. But from mid-May garden centres were added to the list of ‘essential services’. However the one near us stayed open for less than one day e.g. within hours of our local ‘pick your own’ strawberry farm opened, people eager to make a beeline for the best looking bushes failed to ‘Social Distance’ so the farmer (acting responsibly) turfed everyone out, and closed his doors to the public.
3. Church Congregations: Even before the pandemic (apart from Northern Ireland) churches in Britain were always almost empty anyway because the British people are not very religious. Church attendance in England was just 4.7% of the population; 4.8% in Wales, and 8.9% in Scotland. In contrast, church attendance in Northern Ireland is 48%.
4. Indoor Gatherings e.g. restaurants:- Currently, all in door gatherings are still banned in the UK; restaurants, with limited capacity seating e.g. ‘Social Distancing’ imposed, should be allowed to re-open as from 15th June, provided ‘R’ is still under ‘1’ by that time.
As regards to your reference to the difficulties of interpreting the R-factor in different settings; it is something the British Government is grappling with e.g. one of the reasons delaying the roll-out of the human tracers until the end of last week was the Government being fastidious in setting up ‘systems’ to better measure the ‘R’ factor at a higher level of granularity (in different settings) e.g. the ‘R’ Factor is currently around 0.9 in care homes, but below 0.7 in the wider community. And one thing the Government is keen to do is be able to identify settings and places where ‘R’ is above ‘1’ so that they can be isolated and lockdown, while allowing everyone greater freedom!
We’ll have to wait and see how well the UK Government handles the next month, which (coming out of lockdown) is a tricky process; and see how it pans out?Update from G.:
As Germany has switched its strategy from general testing to "target testing" of highlighted infection patterns (clan families, food processing..), we have a surge in newly infected.
R-factor has sky-rocketed to 2.9 because of massive local outbreaks. Most prominent case is meat factory Tönnies in Rheda-Wiedenbrück with a rough 1,5k infected.
At the same time fatality rate is down to statistically neglectable values. Some 0,1 to 0,5% of natural mortality. Active cases are going up again, currently 8.000.
The Corona Watch App was launched last week. More than 11 Million activated the app. I am one of them, even if i am reserved concerning effectivity.
The distancing measures and mask wearing in uncontrolled public places is still active, so most outbreaks are well contained and have their origin in close working conditions and precarious housing conditions.
As i write this, a meat factory in my city was visited by the testing task force and yes - infected were found. Will be interesting to watch what there is to come.
I would no say this infection surge is a second wave. It is more the result of changed strategies.
It looks like social distancing and masking really works and unprotected gatherings (in factories, in houses, on Trump rallies) are source for trouble.Thanks for the update Chris.
The R rate in the UK, as a whole, remains at 0.7-0.9; but it does vary from Region to Region e.g. some areas just above ‘1’ while other areas are well below ‘1’. The main thing is that currently, in spite of increased testing, newly identified cases are still falling by the week, as are deaths; albeit slowly.
The UK Government is still struggling to perfect its ‘Test, Track, Trace and Isolate’ program, in spite of having sufficient ‘human tracers’ to do the job e.g. Administrative issues, but the issues are being slowly ironed out, and the Government is slowly making progress by the week.
The UK Government has abandoned its ‘pet’ project of the NHS trace app for the time being, because although it does work well on most ‘smart phones’, security settings on ‘Apple’ devices prevents it from working properly. But because the Government’s NHS is far more accurate on identifying distance than the Apple/Google app, the Government is trying to persuade Apple/Google to take the NHS coding and incorporate into their app (for the world)? So currently the Government is publically optimistic that it will have a workable app that it wants by the end of the year?
While the ‘R’ rate is still below ‘1’ the Government is staying on course in slowly re-opening the economy in small ‘bite-size’, two weekly steps:-
• All non-essential Retail Shops, that meet the Government’s strict rules, were allowed to open on the 15th June, and
• The next step takes place on the 4th July, when pubs, restaurants and hair dressers will be allowed to re-open; provided they meet the Government’s strict rules.
The re-opening of pubs and restaurants on the 4th July has been a little controversial in that with the 2 metre rule, only 25% of pubs and restaurants would have been able to re-open, while complying the strict Government Rules. So after a lot of consideration, and lengthy consultation with the scientific and medical experts, Boris finally decided yesterday that the 2 metre rule can be relaxed to 1 metre (minimum), provided extra precautions are put in place. The change to 1 metre distancing (with extra precautions imposed) will allow 75% of pubs and restaurants to re-open on 4th July. Albeit, opinion polls indicate a reluctance of people going out socialising again, so it is expected that demand for such facilities will be down significantly when they do open on 4th July.
The other major change is that while masks have only been compulsory on public transport; as from 4th July masks will be compulsory at all times.
There are still large sections of the economy in shut down in the UK, including beauty salons, gyms, and nightclubs etc., and still no indication from the Government as to when they might be allowed to re-open e.g. the UK Government will be watching the effect of the easing up on the 4th July before making any other firm decisions.
One good news, is that the Government’s plan to randomly sample 20% of the UK population to see what percentage of the population has the anti-bodies is well under way e.g. our son has been randomly selected to take part in this large scale survey.
Germany update August: This is what a second wave looks like.
- Reopening in May ( index (3)),
- Change in testing strategy in June (focus on infection patterns, food processing plants, church service gatherings..), caused the zigzag.
- July = holiday season, from mid July on people returning from holidays and apparently bring back the virus and trigger the second wave.
- August shows moderate surge of cases, now above 1.000/day, active cases on the rise, almost doubled from 3 weeks ago to 11.000 now.
- first states reopened schools after vacation period - and some schools immediately closed again, due to in school infections.
No change in distancing :
Mask wearing indoors in public places mandatory (shops, public transport)
1,5 m distance (roughly 5 ft)
With people coming back from holidays in the mediterranian, mandatory testing at airports enforced.Thanks for the update Chris.
The economy in the UK wasn’t reopened until the 4th July. At the time the UK Government did warn that it expected an increase in new cases as a result e.g. pubs (bars) and restaurants also reopened on the 4th July, and if necessary the pubs and restaurants would be closed again.
However, that spike never came! Yes there has been a slow and steady increase in new cases since the 4th July, up from 664 new cases daily to 832 new cases now; but the vast bulk of those new cases are due to the rapid increase in testing e.g. up from about 180,000 tests per day a month ago to near 300,000 tests per day now (with a Government target to reach half a million tests a day by September). The good news is, is that the number of positive tests per 100,000 tested has steadily declined over the past month, and is still declining by the week; as are deaths.
On the 4th July (when we reopened our economy in the UK), the average daily deaths was 97 people a day; now the average is 56 a day, and falling by the week.
So in spite of reopening our economy in the UK on the 4th July, we haven’t (as yet) experienced any second wave or spike; fortunately.
Some of the specifics for the UK:-
• The Government did make a failed attempt at reopening schools on the 1st June, but many Local Governments didn’t reopen their schools, and in areas where the schools were reopened many parents refused to send their children back to school anyway.
Therefore, schools are to reopen in the 2nd week of September; but this time, under stricter Covid-19 Rules laid down by the Government e.g. assigning teachers to individual classes (half their normal size), keeping teachers isolated from each other, and each class separate from any other class (bubbles); so that in the event that a child or teacher becomes infected, only that class (buddle) is isolated (put into quarantine), without affecting the other classes (bubbles).
• When the Government reopened pubs (bars) and restaurants on the 4th July it reduced ‘social distancing’ from 2m to 1m+ to make it economically viable for pubs to reopen. But, in visiting a pub in the UK you do have to give your name and contact details to a member of staff on the door, so that in the event that any with Covid-19 is traced back to the pub the ‘contact tracers’ know who else visited the pub at that time, so that they can be contacted and asked to isolate and get tested.
Other restrictions imposed on pubs (bars) is that they are now waitress service only (you have to sit down, rather than stand at the bar), staff have to wear PPE, and ONLY contactless payment is permitted.
• As from today, the wearing of masks indoors in 'all' public places, and on public transport, is now mandatory in the UK. Previously it was just on public transport and some indoor public places.
• As regards holidays, people coming back from the list of countries deemed safe by the UK Government (which doesn’t include the USA) can travel freely (which is most of Europe), but people coming back from countries where Covid-19 infections are higher than the UK, people have to self-isolate for 10 days. The reason the UK government has opted to impose self-isolation from countries where risk of infection from Covid-19 is high, rather than relying on testing at the airport is because for people who have only just become infectious (as they might do when on holiday) they don’t always show a temperature increase initially. So the British Government feel that self-isolation is a more cautious approach!!!
The only major part of the UK economy that is still not open, and no indication as to when they will be allowed to reopen, are the night clubs.
Update Germany Aug. 22:
G. is experiencing something like a second wave. Active cases have risen 250% since lowest count of 5500 six weeks ago. Death count is single digit per day, statistically not relevant. Situation is much more relaxed compared to the US with active cases only 2,5% of US number, population adjusted.
The Robert Koch Institute (leading government organization in fighting the virus) has released some new statistics that give a picture of how the spreading takes place (results of intensive tracking and follow up):
Most new cases are in household environments, but only 3 are infected by 1 spreader (R=3).
Elderly care homes are second but with lower incidents but much higher R-factor: 19
Refugee homes (not camps) have R-factor: 21 highest R-factor in G.
Schools represent 150 infections of 10.000 on some 30 incidents and is considered to be not alarming.
Low spreading in Restaurants, Hotels, offices and factories, if spectacular (more than 1000 cases) outbreaks in food processing pants are set aside.
Zero spreading outdoors in controlled areas (zoos, amusement parks).
Up to now only 3 incidents associated with outdoor picknicking in city parks.
In Germany masks are required in indoor public spaces, shops, public transport. Restaurants must register guests with time and table stamp. No self service buffets allowed.
Outdoors 1,50 m distancing, nothing more.
I am not sure if restrictions were eased even more recently. But i have the impression that rising new cases will have state and federal administration step on the brake again and restrict partying, as most new cases do not come from public locations or events. We shall see.
A last one: Since end of May in G. counties have to lockdown if new cases exceed 50 per week per 100k population. This rule applied on the US would lockdown almost every state in the US, except NY.New confirmed average daily cases in the UK is currently 992 a day, up slightly from its lowest point of 545 on the 8th July, but has stayed steady for the past week; and showing signs of slowly declining from its height of 1,097 a week ago.
The death count finally reached single digits earlier in the week, and still declining slowly week by week.
I don’t know how many ‘Live Active Cases’ there are because England screwed-up the statistics good and proper (Statistical flaw) e.g. people who tested positive for Covid-19 months ago and who have subsequently died of other causes, such as being running over by a bus, were being statistically recorded as dying of Covid-19. The error in the stats has now been corrected.
But the ‘Testing Positivity’ rate of 0.5% in the UK has remained steady. This compares to the ‘Testing Positivity’ rate of 0.7% in Germany, and 1.4% as the EU average; all of which is significantly lower than the USA were the Testing Positivity Rate is often between 10% & 20% in a lot of the States.
However, in the UK it’s the ‘R’ value that the Government uses as the main ‘Indicator’; which over the past month has increased from between 0.8 & 1.0 to 0.9 & 1.1 (UK wide average). Where it’s slightly above ‘1’ (currently 1.1) is parts of northern England; and on investigation the main cause of ‘R’ rising above ‘1’ in northern England has been where northerners have been socialising in each other’s homes e.g. friends and family visiting each other and holding BBQs etc. in each other’s gardens.
So in response, the UK Government has been imposing ‘Social Restrictions’ in areas in northern England where ‘R’ goes above ‘1’ e.g. make it illegal for people to visit each other in each other’s homes in the affected areas. These areas are then carefully monitored (heavily tested) and the situation reviewed regularly so as to ease or modify the restrictions as and when appropriate.
This approach of acting swiftly and harshly appears to be working in that the ‘R’ value has been dropping to below ‘1’ again in those areas in northern England that have had ‘social restrictions’ imposed on them.
It’s no great surprise the problem is in the north, rather than the south: characteristic of the north/south divide e.g. northerners are far more sociable and friendly; while we southerners are not so much (in the South we tend to keep ourselves to ourselves more, by nature).
Coronavirus: Separate households banned from meeting indoors in parts of northern England: https://youtu.be/N4MCs38L18A
As with Germany, masks are only required in indoor public spaces; although one significant difference is that ‘Social Distancing’ in the UK was reduced from 2m on the 4th July to 1m+. The 1m+ rule being that keep 2m apart if possible, but where not possible e.g. in pubs (bars) then keep at least 1m apart. It was a risky strategy (gamble) to try to help pubs be more financially viable, and one that the Government was prepared to reverse if it didn’t work. But as deaths have gone down since the 4th July, rather than up, and the ‘R’ has hovered around ‘1’ rather than spiking, then the gamble (experiment) appears to have worked.Just announced on the news (23rd Aug); the UK Government have just introduced a £10,000 ($13,000) fine for illegal parties. It's not as if illegal parties are a big problem in the UK (like they are in the USA), but such parties are 'super spreaders' and the Government is clamping down hard before it becomes a major issue e.g. in recent opinion polls, over 80% of the British population is fully supportive of the Government taking tough measures to combat the virus.
Arthur, i read about the lack of success in France concerning the Corona app. Financial Times has an article that only some 70 incidents were reported by the app. Some news outlets even report less.
https://www.ft.com/content/255567d5-b7e … 3b3a23f665
https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/frenc … L39o6e8S2_
This makes sense to me, because if only 1,9 Million out of 67 Million have activated the app, simple statistics will come to an incident detection probability of 0,08%. Multiply this with the number of active cases (some 100.000) and we get 80 incidents at 0% false alarms. Same magnitude of what is reported.
I learned that German government had spent some 69 million Euro (most of iit for server capacity) on the development and rollout of the app. Same maths trick as above for Germany will delivery only 230 detects. That is 300.000 Euro per successful detection. What a hay maker!
Being an old industrial consultant, i can only recommend the UK administration to abandon the project. Success is questionable and cost per detection makes the who project look ridiculous. They can better spend the money on vaccine development, more ICUs, you name it, but not for this piece of software.It is too hot outside, so i decided to do some further investigation on the Corona stuff.
In a post some 5 weeks ago i hinted that former communist block may be much better off after the pandemic is over. Explanation is not totally clear but may be connected with mandatory BCG vaccination in sovjet times, which especially applies to older people.
I had a look at overall fatality numbers compared to natural mortality over the whole pandemic period until now:
Russia: 1,7% of natural mortality
Belorus: 1,1%
East German states including Berlin (former GDR): 1,8%
West German states: 3,0%
Sweden: 14,2%
UK: 16,8% (42.000 Corona deaths/ 250.000 natural death in the period)
USA: 10,0%
Numbers may vary a little, but the huge difference in fatality between Eastern Europe and Western Europe is becoming very obvious. We even have a transparent "control group" with East German states that show same result.
IMHO there is not much evidence to blame Russia or Belorus for undercounting. There simply is not much room to undercount if you compare to East Germany.
On the other hand: Something must have gone terribly wrong with the UK. Even Sweden has a lower fatality rate and they didn´t do any lockdown, at best a voluntary lockdown.I don’t have all the answers, but part of the answer for such a high death count in the UK attributed to covid-19 is ONS (Office of National Statistics); and another part of the issue was that (like Italy, USA and other Western Countries) proper care and attention in care homes were overlooked in the first month of the lockdown in the UK.
When the UK started to publish covid-19 deaths, initially the ‘Official’ figures were those where people died, who had tested positive for covid-19. But after the first month of the lockdown the ONS (Office of National Statistics) published their own monthly report which put the death toll about 25% higher than was officially being reported by the Government; since then the Government has adopted the ONS figures as the official figures, and make revisions to their own figures accordingly when the ONS data is published (which is now weekly).
The ONS is an ‘Independent Government Department’ e.g. not answerable to the Government, but answerable to Parliament only. It’s a safe guard used for certain sensitive Government Departments in the UK to ensure that Governments can't interfere with or influence the work of the Department for political gain e.g. to prevent Governments from manipulating or hiding data.
The ONS Independently gathers social and economic data and publishes the raw data in the public domain monthly for all to see, including the public, and opposition parties.
Unlike the Government that (initially) just took the figure for all people who tested positive for covid-19, and subsequently died. The ONS also included all deaths where covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificates by the doctor, regardless to whether they were tested for covid-19 or not.
And as a separate exercise, for each month the ONS added up the total number of deaths in the UK for the previous 5 years and divided the figure by 5 to give a 5 year average, and then subtracted that from the total deaths for the same month in this year: Thus arriving at excess deaths during the pandemic which can be assumed to be predominantly caused by covid-19.
The other factor is that while everyone focused on hospitals in the UK, infections and deaths swept through care homes (mostly elderly people) like wildfire; to the point that during the peak of deaths in the UK, about half of all deaths in the UK was in care homes. Since then the Government has paid attention to the care homes, and the situation has been bought under control.
The one good news for where I live, in Bristol, is that in Bristol (one of the least affected areas in the UK), with a population of 535,907 people, during the whole pandemic there has only been a total of just 729 people who have tested positive in Bristol, and just a small handful of deaths.
Another piece of good news is that as part of the Government’s (NHS) programme to randomly sample test 20% of the UK (for research purposes only) for antibodies, our son was selected as part of that random sample, and his test came back negative; which means both I and my wife almost certainly haven’t been exposed to the virus because neither of us have been out since the lockdown on the 23rd March e.g. like many people during the pandemic, we have our food and DIY supplies delivered to our home (rather than risk going out).
Another final piece of good news is that according to the ONS, current deaths in the UK this week was the same as average total number of deaths for this week over the previous five years.
The UK Government has abandoned any attempt to use the NHS trace app for the time being, because although it works exceptionally well on most smart devices (better than the Apple/Google app); it doesn’t work properly on Apple devices because of security settings on Apple devices.
The UK Government is trying to engage in talks with Apple and Google, to try to get them to adopt the good aspects of the NHS app into their own app coding to be re-released as a revised version (for world benefit) by the end of the year? Whether Boris is successful in this is debatable!
Therefore, to compensate for the lack of the app, Boris increased the number of human tracers from 18,000 to 25,000 (all now fully trained and operational); and which at the moment seems to be adequate to keep on top of things.
One interesting stat, in the light that Trump is so ‘anti-testing’, and claimed several times over the past few days that the USA does more testing than any other country in the world; is that for example the UK has so far done testing on 15.2% of the population (the country that has done the 15th highest number of tests per head of population); while the USA have tested just 11.1% of the population (the country with the 26th highest number of tests done in the world, per head of population).
Testing is an integral part of ‘Contact Tracing’, as an important tool to help keep the virus under control. As of 18th June; the USA only had only 37,110 ‘contact tracers’. In the UK since May, Boris Johnson (UK Conservative Government), has employed and trained 25,000 ‘contact tracers’ (comparable to other European countries). Considering the UK population is one 5th of the size of the USA, it would seem that the USA is woefully lacking in much needed contact tracers that would be needed to help keep the virus under control!Live to Learn; my comment “about American’s desire to maintain their individual liberty being a problem”, which you scoffed at, is summed up in this British TV News Report from yesterday:-
The Americans refusing to wear masks: 'It's against our rights': https://youtu.be/XeEgBOmCTEM
In the above news report, at 3:12 minutes; two middle aged American women rip into the British News Reporters for wearing masks e.g. one of the woman says; quote:-
“….because you are wearing a mask out of stupidity, and you are further pushing the agenda, and the agenda is that the State wants to control all of us and have us living in fear, and thinking that you are contaminated.
It is false narrative, and when you wear a mask, which you can certainly do, you are further pushing the agenda that is condemning all of us, and keep us living in a state of terror…” https://youtu.be/XeEgBOmCTEM?t=192LATEST DATA
In last 24 hours, total new cases in UK were just 352, total deaths just 16:-
• The 7 day moving average of new cases is the lowest it’s been in the UK since the 22nd March.
• The 7 day moving average of deaths is the lowest it’s been in the UK since the 25th March.
In the last 24 hours, total new cases in USA were 50,586, total deaths 378: 12 deaths (3%) higher than on the same day the previous week.
• New cases in the USA are the highest they have ever been since the start of the pandemic in March.
• The 7 day moving average of deaths is the lowest it’s been in the USA since the 30th March; but with record high infection rates over double in the past week (now over 50,000 a day), and with a long lag time of several weeks between infections and deaths, I fear that that is about to change.The increase was expected here in the states due to reopening massive number of tests being done. So many that are being tested are A-symptomatic.
The next few weeks will be telling. If the death rate increases due to a rise in cases it will tell us we have a virus that is still virulent, versus one that has mutated down to something much less virulent. It will also predict if we have a new wave in the fall.
The stats for the entire world are showing a decrease in deaths overall. Some countries still appearing to be doing worse than others.
Here in Mich, we are showing the death rate very low to a slightly rising infection rate. The testing is widespread, and one can literally almost get one on every corner for free.
I prefer to think the lag time will prove we have a virus that has become denatured, and will fizzle out. One can hope...Taking each of your five paragraphs in turn:-
#1: Yes, the more people you test the more you will find who are infected. However, that is NOT the issue. The issue is “What percentage of those who are tested, are tested as positive”. The sad fact is that in at least 37 States (74% of the States) the percentage of those who are tested who are testing positive (rather than negative) has increased dramatically in the past two weeks e.g. in several States the number of people testing positive is now well over 20% of those tested; and rising.
In contrast in the UK, the city of Leicester, which the Government put back into lockdown last week because of an unacceptable increase in infections e.g. currently the worst affected part of the UK; only 0.135% of those being tested in Leicester are testing positive.
FYI: the USA on average is doing only twice as many tests per day than the UK e.g. 314,000 tests per day in the USA and an average of about 160,000 tests per day in the UK. The UK now has the capacity to do up to 300,000 tests per day, but because the infection rate in the UK is now so low there isn't the need at the moment to do more than about 160,000 tests per day to keep the virus under control.
So in spite of the fact the USA population is 5 times larger than the UK, the USA is only doing double the number of tests than the UK e.g. per head of population the UK is dong far more testing than the USA:-
• To date the USA has done 38,806,343 tests (tests per 1m population = 117,226). Therefore the USA has tested just 11.72% of the population. And 10% to 20%+ of those tested in the USA are currently tested positive.
• In contrast, to date the UK has done 10,777,399 tests (tests per 1m population = 158,741) Therefore the UK has tested 15.87% of the population. And currently of those tested in the UK, currently less than 0.1% are tested positive.
#2: Yesterday (7th July) in the USA, of the 300,000+ who were tested, 55,442 tested positive (about 20%). In contrast the average of those testing positive in the UK is currently just 560 per day (less than 0.1% of those being tested).
Yesterday (7th July) 993 people died of covid-19 in the USA, the highest death toll in a single day in the USA since 10th June (three weeks ago); an possible indication that deaths are on the rise again in the USA. In contrast, the average daily deaths in the UK are only 95 people (a 10th of the death toll in the USA) and still falling (the lowest it’s been since 26th March).
#3: Yes, in most countries across the world, including the UK, where Governments are taking the pandemic seriously and making every effort to fight the pandemic, the death tolls are declining, and their economies are opening up again.
However, in countries like the USA and Brazil, where the Governments are not taking the pandemic seriously enough, and NOT doing enough to fight the pandemic, and also in poor countries (like India) who don’t have the resources to fight the pandemic; then the infection rates and deaths are increasing dramatically.
#4: You are lucky that the death rate in Michigan is currently low, likewise the infection rate and deaths in Bristol (where I live) is VERY LOW. However, the pandemic is spreading across the USA, currently most predominantly in the south, and unlike other countries such as the EU and Australia etc. who close internal borders to stop the spread of the virus, there is nothing stopping the virus to spread from State to State in the USA.
Yes I know that testing is now freely available across the USA, just as it’s freely available across the UK. However, when people are tested positive (which is about 20% of tests in the USA), in the USA you currently only have 28,000 ‘contract tracers’ to track down people who have been in close contact with infected people, and get them to isolate and get tested; to slow the spread of the virus. The CDC says it needs a minimum of a further 72,000 contract tracers to fight the spread of the virus.
In contrast, the UK (a fifth of the size of the USA) has 25,000 contract tracers (just 3,000 less than the USA), which considering that less than 0.1% of tests in the UK are coming back positive, is sufficient in the UK to help contain the virus and stop its spread.
#5: No the lag time between infections and deaths does NOT mean the virus has become denatured, the lag time is the same now as it was at the start of the pandemic way back in March e.g. people become infected, two weeks later fall ill and have to go into hospital, and then two or three weeks later die.
Also, for those wishing for herd immunity; they are going to be disappointed. A large-scale study in Spain (who was hit almost as hard as the UK with the pandemic) has indicated that only 5% of its population has developed coronavirus antibodies, strengthening evidence that so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable." Also, a similar large-scale study currently being conducted in the UK (sampling 20% of the population) is similar results e.g. less than 5% of the population in the UK have anti-bodies.I guess my opinion has come mainly through a few friends that re physicians working at one of our largest hospitals in Michigan.
Both claim they are seeing a mutated COVID that is at this point using little problems to the host. I have been told the new strain is much more easily spread, somewhat more like a cold virus. This is the reason for the increase in cases and a decrease in deaths. Actually my friend told me at this point the virus is no longer holding numbers that it can be considered a pandemic any longer.
I note that the Taskforce will be giving an update today, should be interesting to see what they have to say.
As I mentioned I think the next weeks will give us an idea if the mutated virus will continue to be as much as a problem.I don’t mean to be disrespectful to your colleagues, but what you are being told is partially in error.
1. Yes the virus has mutated since it left China, and is more infectious. But it’s not new news. The original strain swept across Asia. The mutated strain originated in Italy, months ago, spread across Europe to the UK and then on to the USA.
The video below gives an overview of that mutation:-
Study in early MAY 2020 says new strain of coronavirus is more contagious: https://youtu.be/SfahYQwE-kI
2. However, the virus is just as deadly now as it was back in March; the only difference is that better treatment has been developed over the past three months that increases the chances of survival.
The most effective new treatment to date (which was trialled in the UK, with the results being published to the world on 15th June) is Dexamethasone; a drug that is widely available across the world, and is also affordable to poor countries: And it only costs $7 per patient.
The use of Dexamethasone, at the right time:-
• For patients on ventilators, it cuts the risk of death from 40% to 28%, and
• For patients needing oxygen, it cuts the risk of death from 25% to 20%
For further information: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281
If your friend told you that the virus has become so harmless that it should no longer be considered as a pandemic, then he/she is either lying or is blind to actuality.
I watched some of the ‘Taskforce’ blurb live; and they are lying through their teeth to the American Public e.g. they want to down play the pandemic to get the economy going again (regardless to how many lives it costs): Because Trump (who is still in denial about the pandemic) wants to get the economy going again as part of his election campaign, and he doesn’t care how many people die in the pandemic. Trump’s attitude towards wearing masks and his disregard of social distancing at his rallies should be a clue that he has total disregard to people dying from covid-19.
FYI: If you look at the recent figures. Deaths from covid-19 in the USA over the past two days are now around 25% higher than they have been for the past month. If the trend for the past two days continues, as it is likely to do due to the dramatic increase in infections, then you are back to the high levels of daily deaths that you had in the USA before the 9th June.Agree. Btw,
More than 100 Texas residents died from the coronavirus Thursday.
The grim milestone marks the second consecutive day the state broke its record for single-day COVID-19-related deaths, with 98 coming Wednesday. Texas also reported 9,782 new cases Thursday, bringing its total to 230,346, with 2,918 resulting in death.
According to a Houston Chronicle analysis, there are currently around 9,610 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, another record, with 11,575 beds and 5,288 ventilators available.Yes the data in the USA makes for grim reading, with no end in sight!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/On April 23 the peak death toll for the day was listed as 2748 the death. Yesterday the death toll was 464. As one can see just by viewing the full chart the death toll has decreased as the cases of new infections have risen severely. April 24th showed new cases at a peak of 39,123.
On June 19th the new case started going up steadily.from 33.582 (death toll 2748) new case toll continues to grow --- July 14 peaked at 65,594 new cases The death toll we 464.
It is very obvious the virus at this point is not causing death as it did at its peak in the spring months.
It certainly could mutate again become more virulent, it also could fizzle as many viruses have. The next few weeks will give more information on the virus itself.
At this point, with the decreasing death toll, I certainly would not call it "grim". It actually gives a glimmer of hope that the virus is no longer a horrendous killer.
The majority of the states remain in single or low double digits in regard to the death toll.
I truly do trust my peers in regards to information. They have worked the virus and noted when it mutated and the decrease in its virulent, and that the virus was affecting young adults, and was not requiring hospital stays as a rule unless the young adult was compromised with other health problems. The media don't find these statistics important, which is a shame.
Your link does provide goods graphs to show my point. Cases increase while death toll plummets.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/usNo, at this point the death toll is NOT decreasing in the USA, and the situation is ‘grim’:-
• The death toll reached its first peak in the USA on the 21st April with 2,748 deaths in a single day.
• The death toll reached its lowest point in the USA on 5th July with 262 deaths on that day.
• Since the 5th July deaths have been increasing again in the USA; on the 14th July there were 935 deaths, on the 15th July it was 1001 deaths.
The reason daily deaths in the USA have dropped by only two thirds since the first peak is because America has NOT got the pandemic under control.
The reason daily deaths in the USA have risen from its lowest point of 262 on 5th July to 1001 (a fourfold increase in deaths in just 11 days) is because America has NOT got the pandemic under control.
The reason daily deaths is on the increase again, a fourfold increase since the 5th July, is because America has NOT got the pandemic under control.
Daily deaths in the USA may only be a 1000 a day (as at 15th July), but that is a fourfold increase since the 5th July, and the TREND in deaths has been UP (not down) over the last 11 days e.g. America is NOW heading for a 2nd peak in deaths; which will almost certainly be a lot higher than 1,000 deaths a day, and considering how many people are becoming infected and being hospitalised at the moment in the southern States, daily deaths could easily reach or exceed the first peak within weeks.
The point you don’t seem to have grasped yet is that there is ALWAYS a TIME LAG of several weeks between becoming infected and being hospitalised, and a time lag of several weeks from being hospitalised and dying of Covid-19. New ‘Cases’ started to rise again in the USA on the 14th June (just over 4 weeks ago); many hospitals in the Southern States are already near or at capacity (if you’ve been watching the ‘news’); and American citizens are beginning to die in ever increasing numbers, if you re-examine the link. The situation can only now get worse by the week, for months to come (because of inaction by Trump to combat the pandemic); and there is nothing anyone can do about it, it’s now too late to stop the horrendous death toll that faces America over the coming months.
Texas hospitals running out of ICU beds (14th July): https://youtu.be/4cDtlYfwDHM
In contrast the UK death toll peaked at 1,172 on the 21st April (the same day deaths peaked in the USA), yet because of positive action by the British Government daily deaths in the UK are now just a 15th of what they were at the peak, and the daily average is still falling by the week.
There is a BIG difference between daily deaths falling by just two thirds in the USA from its peak, and daily deaths being a 15th of what it was at its peak in the UK: That should be a clue that something has seriously gone wrong in America.
One other point which you don’t seem to be aware of is that although initially it was the younger generation (where the risk of serious illness from Covid-19 is much lower) who were predominantly becoming infected a few weeks ago; since then their parents and grandparents (those at higher risk of death from Covid-19) are now becoming infected. It’s not rocket science to work out that the young will become infected in the first instance, because it’s that generation who socialise more, and are more blasé about catching the virus because they feel immune. And it’s no rocket science to realise, that within weeks the children who have contracted the virus will pass it onto their parents and grandparents (as is beginning to happen, if you research the data).Sharlee,
certainly case fatality numbers go down.
Just do a little number and fact checking.
Average age of Covid patients in the US has dropped significantly. By some 15 years. https://www.teletrader.com/average-age- … ture=de-DE
Probability of dying from Covid19 is increasing some 3 fold with every 10 years of age: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
If you compare average mortality of mid April to beginning of July (2 week rolling average): 100% in April vs 30% in July.
Active case pool April vs July: 100% vs 200% (some 1.6 Million now).
Then do this trick (a little simplified):
15 years younger: 1/6
Active cases: 2
Multiply: 1/6 x 2 = 1/3 = 33%
That is roughly of what the rolling average shows today in comparison to April. Not a result of better treatment, or of better response organisation - only the result of average biological constitution and resilience at younger age.
The higher the number of active cases, the more fatalities will show in relation to natural mortality of the population. And those active cases are still on the rise in the US. For weeks now by 20.000 every day.
Sad story.
Texas current stats-- 230,346, with 2,918 resulting in death.
You do realize there are 29 million people that live in Texas?
Texas 2019.2020 Influenza A (H1N1), as well as B influenza, was prevalent in Texas. H1N1 and B yearly flu killed over 2050 residence in Texas.
Table 8: Texas P&I Deaths Occurring Sept. 29, 2019 – Jan. 29, 2020* by Age
Age Category
(years)
Number of P&I
Deaths+
Mortality Rate
(per 100,000)
0 - 4 <10 0.37
5 - 17 13 0.24
18 - 49 180 1.36
50 - 64 439 8.46
65 + 2010 52.41
Overall 2650 8.85
file:///C:/Users/lssta/Downloads/20Wk10Mar13%20(1).pdf
The death rate at this point in the USA is actually plummeting in regard to new cases. One should consider the entire picture.
USA -- 61, 067 new cases yesterday 960 deaths.
New cases are increasing daily, yet the death rate is low and stabilizing.
U.S. Influenza Burden Population 342 million
Estimates
The Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC) have
released preliminary burden
estimates for the 2019-2020 flu
season. Between October 1,
2019 through April 4, 2020 CDC
estimates there have been:
• 39 million – 56 million flu
illnesses
• 18 million – 26 million flu
medical visits
• 410,000 – 740,000 flu
hospitalizations
• • 24,000 – 62,000 flu deathshttps://www.michigan.gov/documents/MIFluFocus_1_5_06_146893_7.pdf
Michigan Population 10 million
COVID 19 Stats
75,063 cases
Deaths:
6,271
Consider the yearly flu (H1N1) came in early and was killing people at an increased rate. NO media coverage, no shutdowns...H1N1 has killed millions over the years. We have a vaccine for H1N1. Which it well appears due to increased death rate not many citizens choose to get their yearly flu shot. Just in Michigan, we lost an estimated 24,000 – 62,000 flu to last year's flu versus 6,271 that have died from COVID19.
One needs to consider all viruses have can kill, and does, each year we have flu that kills far more people than residents realize.
https://www.michigan.gov/documents/MIFl … 6893_7.pdfSharlee, please help me to understand: Michigan has close to 10 million inhabitants. How can Michigan CDC come up with up to 56 mill. flu infections? Does it mean everyone gets the flu five times in the season, everyone from grandpa to toddler?
Anyways, i think comparison to regular flu is not appropriate. Apparently there no season for Covid19. The pandemic is not on summer leave.
To understand what is going on with the pandemic in the US or other countries, you have to look at active cases. This number is rising from day to day, currently some 25.000 per day with way over a million active cases. In old Europe active cases are down very much. Italy less than 14.000 and Germany some 6.000 to just pick some examples.
And - lets make a comparison to Germany, one quarter of the the US population. Active cases were rising until beginning of April. At that time Germany had a death toll of 1.200. 3 months later active cases are down to 1/10, but death toll is up to 9.000 today, almost 8 times as much.
I believe it is a good approach to compare situations if you compare active case development. With this in mind, the US is 2 to 3 months behind Europe. So, just imagine what happens to the US in 2 - 3 months time. How many times of the current death toll of 130k? Double?
Again, you don´t have to follow my thoughts. May be the US is only 6 weeks behind. 40 days with 700 deaths per day? The US will be lucky if Covid19 death toll is kept below 200k by the end of the year.
With the birds eye view from the outside: The US is doing nothing to tackle the problem. There is no plan, no strategy, except sticking the head in the sand (means doing less testing).
Sorry to say.My apology for the stats you questioned was that of the USA. My error. Michigans are included further down in the comment.
I was trying to point out we have yearly flu that has and will cause death yearly. Not sure why so many did not notice? It is apparent COVID has caused an exsorbent amount of deaths. Viruses are unpredictable in many ways. But most denature over time, hopefully, this one will.
Sharlee, “two wrongs don’t make a right”; just because flu kills up to 62,000 Americans each year is no reason to be complacent about Covid-19 having already kill 136,645 (more than double) Americans in just 4 months so far, and that death toll is still rising by almost a 1,000 a day currently, with no end in sight.
Yes a lot (but not all) viruses do kill, and yes flu (which is a killer) is seasonal; albeit the flu vaccines do help to save lives.
However, in countries where Governments did not act swiftly and decisively to combat Covid-19, and have failed to continue to act to contain the virus, the death toll from Covid-19 has been significantly higher than seasonal flu.
The death rate in the USA is NOT low (in comparison to countries who acted quickly to combat Covid-19), and the death rate certainly isn’t stabilizing in the USA; the death rate in the USA has increased significantly in the last few days.
As a comparison: Four countries (as examples) of how tens of thousands of lives have been saved by Governments in those countries because of the way they tackled Covid-19 to contain the pandemic:-
• Greece (population 10.4 million): Total deaths only 193.
• Australia (population 25.5 million): Total deaths only 106.
• South Korea (population 51.3 million): Total deaths only 288
• Germany (population 83.8 million): Total deaths 9,130
In contrast, USA (population 331 million): Total deaths 136,645
The USA population is 4 times larger than Germany’s, yet it’s had 15 times more deaths than Germany.
The USA population is 4 times larger than Germany, yet while currently almost a 1,000 people are dying from Covid-19 in the USA every day; only 8 are dying from Covid-19 a day in Germany.
If the 136,645 Covid-19 deaths in the USA had been unavoidable then our discussion would just be academic; but it saddens me that ‘if only’ Trump was committed to fighting Covid-19 (like other Governments around the world have dome), then (if you look at what South Korea, Australia, Greece and Germany have achieved) most of those 136,645 deaths could have been avoided.
Being a European, the loss of just one life is one too many e.g. we do have empathy for those who are dying from Covid-19, and their families; and for that reason are fully supportive in our Governments being cautious in slowly re-opening our economies.It is one thing how early and decisive action was taken by authorities, this lockdown stuff and distancing enforcement.
It is another thing how effectively you organize testing. The US is doing some 800 to 900 thousand tests per day. Some 20% of that testing must be set aside for finding out who recovered. At least that is what i would assume. By the way: after quarantine, where are all those recovered tested? Do they also stand in line?
So by now the US runs some 650.000 daily tests to find 65.000 dialy new infections within an active case spreading pool of 1.300.000.
To come back to comparison with G.: There are some 300 new infections reported daily. Testing is now at 15 to 20.000 per day, with an active case pool of some 6.000.
So comparing to the active case pool G. is testing 6 times as much as the US is doing. And the tests are directed to local outbreaks. If one kid in school is tested positive, you bet they test all contacts in school, all teachers, all class mates, parents, friends, neighbours. True story in our city. They found out about this one kid, because his grandfather worked in a food processing plant that had an outbreak. Contamination chain was fully tracked.
Totally different story in the US. The US is raining tests on everyone, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Austria... are watering only the crop and not the weed.Thanks for that Chris, quite informative.
As you said, how effectively a country organises its testing is an important factor, a task of which the British Government failed at miserable for the first couple of months of the pandemic (costing the lives of thousands of people); and even now it’s far from perfect because of Government incompetency.
However, the British Conservative Government has admitted its mistakes; which is refreshing. And since the short failings in the early months, the Government has made every effort to get things right.
The NHS set up nationwide drive through test centres on Monday 2nd March, but didn’t have the kits, resources or manpower to operate them all. By the 23rd March the UK had become so overwhelmed by the spread of pandemic that the Government abandoned testing altogether, and put the country into full lockdown instead.
It didn’t help that a few days later Boris (British Conservative Prime Minister) contracted the virus and by Sunday 5th April was in intensive care, and a few days later was on oxygen for a short period (where it was touch and go as to whether he would survive). It meant that during the height of the pandemic in April, the UK was leaderless, so important decisions were not being made.
Nevertheless, by mid-April the Government had resumed testing, and set itself a target of 100,000 tests a day by the end of April, with a target of 200,000 tests a day by the end of May. For the last two weeks of April the Government fell far short of its target, but on the last day achieved 122,000 tests. Then through most of May the Government struggled to meet its targets, but by the end of May did manage to achieve 200,000 tests per day.
Admittedly (as revealed last week) the Government only met its two targets by going for ‘quantity’ rather than ‘quality’; but the system (although far from perfect) is continuingly being improved, and 97.5% of the results are returned within 24 hours; and the Government does now have 27,000 ‘contact tracers’ to follow up on those tests (an increase of 2,000 contact tracers since the 1st June).
Currently, the Government (NHS) now has the capacity to do just under 300,000 tests per day, with 97.5% of results being returned within 24 hours. Albeit, on average about 160,000 tests are being carried out each day.
I don’t have the detailed breakdown of the tests in the UK, but as you said, some of the testing will be re-testing to see who has recovered, and a lot of regular testing of front line staff e.g. doctors and nurses, and people in high risk jobs.
However, 20,000 of those daily tests are random sampling of the nation for anti-bodies (research purposes only), of which our son was randomly picked, and his result (returned within 24 hours) was negative.
Also, a large number of the daily tests being carried out in the UK are conducted to closely monitor the ‘R’ (Rate of Infection) at a Regional/Local Level e.g. to closely monitor how rapidly the virus is increasing or decreasing in each city and major town across the UK.
The last part of the testing programme being critical to the UK Government’s ‘whack-a-mole’ policy of putting local communities back into lockdown, and isolating them from the rest of the UK, where the ‘R’ (Rate of Infection) exceeds ‘1’; as the UK Government did with the city of Leicester (population of over 300,000) a couple of weeks ago (in spite of protests from the local Mayor).
So currently, in the UK, around 160,000 tests are being carried out daily, of which over 500 are positive.
Fauci warns US is ‘knee-deep’ in first wave of coronavirus as new cases hit record numbers in some states
"It was a surge or a resurgence of infections superimposed upon a baseline," he clarified.
"If you look at the graphs from Europe, the European Union as an entity, it went up and then came down to the baseline. Now they're having little blips, as you might expect, as they try to reopen. We went up, never came down to baseline, and now we're surging back up."
Fauci testified to Congress last week that the daily number of infections could reach 100,000 a day if the government does not reign in the outbreak soon. He added Monday that the country's handling of the pandemic is “really not good."
“A series of circumstances associated with various states and cities trying to open up in the sense of getting back to some form of normality has led to a situation where we now have record-breaking cases,” Fauci said in a web interview with National Institutes of Health director Francis Collins.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/fauci-warns- … oronavirusPlease, what is really troubling in the US: There is no idea of how to go from "raining" tests down on the population to a more strategic testing method to reign in outbreaks on a local level.
In one way or the other, this is what most European administrations did and do. Develop tracking programs and hunt down infected as early as possible.
For the past month, all of Europe including Russia, Ukraine, Belorus and Turkey had a death toll rise of 16.000. The population is twice as high as of the US. Same monthly death toll rise for the US: 20.000.
It could be so easy. Just look at what others do and copy paste. There is no copyright on these successful testing strategies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ERH9His81AOn the 4th July England took the next tentative step to re-opening its economy by allowing pubs, restaurants, cafes, hairdressers and theme parks to open again for the first time since the 23rd March; provided they meet strict Government Guidelines, which includes giving your contact details at the door, as you enter the pub or restaurant; in the event they are needed by ‘contact tracers’.
4th July: Pubs, hairdressers and theme parks reopen in England https://youtu.be/k_GhhH6XLNg
Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are each independently following a similar, but more cautious approach to re-opening their economies.
Night clubs, theatres and cinemas etc. still remain closed, with no indication of when they may be allowed to re-open; but to compensate the Government has just issued a £2 billion handout in the form of grants and loans to the ‘Arts’ Industry.
With over 60,000 pubs in the UK, apart from Soho in London, where social distancing broke down outside the pubs on the 4th July; the British Public are generally respecting, and following, the Government’s safety guidelines on visiting pubs and restaurants.
However, within 48 hours of pubs reopening, 3 pubs in the UK had to close again, as part of the Government’s ‘whack-a-mole’ policy to control the spread of the virus.
Three short videos highlighting the UK Government’s ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Policy to control the spread of covid-19:
• Three pubs shut in England, due to coronavirus cases, within 48 hours of reopening on 4th July https://youtu.be/S40vU7Nng1E
• ‘Whack-a-Mole’ approach to controlling covid-19 in the UK: UK Government imposes local lockdown in city of Leicester after Covid-19 flare-up https://youtu.be/EC-_YHuVAZ0
• Other areas in UK at risk of going back into lockdown under the Government’s ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Policy https://youtu.be/NtPK57A7L4A
Yup, things are great.
Florida set a weekly record of nearly 500 coronavirus-related deaths, a roughly 16 percent increase from the last highest weekly mortality rate reported in May.
The state’s Department of Health reported 95 new deaths Saturday, bringing the weekly total to 496 fatalities, which is an average of 71 deaths a day.
Florida’s weekly mortality average three weeks ago stood around 30 fatalities before the state started seeing spikes -- reaching their current daily record of 120 deaths reported Thursday.UK ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Policy: Latest Update (Mid July)
There’s currently more than 100 ‘local spikes’ across the UK each week; most small (and don’t make the news) and all dealt with swiftly; the largest of which this week was a village farm in Worcester, England, where 73 out of 200 farm workers tested positive for Covid-19. The farm (and farm workers) has been placed under quarantine and food is being ferried into them.
The city of Leicester is still the only large community under lockdown, although the Government is closely monitoring about two dozen cities and towns where the ‘R’ value is close to ‘1’.
As regards facemasks in the UK: They are compulsory on public transport, but not in shops; a tiff has broken out in the Government this week where Boris (Prime Minster) wants to make facemasks in shops compulsory and Michael Gove (Minister for the Cabinet Office), 2nd in command, says no.
With the reopening of pubs & restaurants in England on 4th July, Scotland has warned that if the virus starts to spread again in England that Scotland will impose quarantine on all visitors from England if necessary.So operation Im-FU-so-lets-shift-the-blame has begun. Shameful but his expected modus operandi. SMH
It is not just three states.
The U.S. reported over 75,600 COVID-19 cases on Thursday alone, marking a new daily record as cases continue to surge across the country.
Fatalities amid the coronavirus pandemic also reached new highs this week.
Florida was one of 10 states to set a single-day record for deaths this week, including Alabama, Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Utah, according to the Times.
Also,
An unpublished document prepared for the White House coronavirus task force and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit newsroom, recommends that 18 states in the coronavirus "red zone" for cases should roll back reopening measures amid surging cases.
The "red zone" is defined in the 359-page report as "those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%."
The following 18 states are in the red zone for cases: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.
The report says the following 11 states are in the red zone for test positivity: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Washington.Scotland is doing exceptionally well (Monday 20th July):-
• Just 299 people now in hospital in Scotland with Covid-19 of which only 3 are in intensive care.
• Only 7 new Covid-19 cases in Scotland within the last 24 hours.
• Zero deaths in Scotland in the last 24 hours.Vaccine Update (22nd July):-
With a population of over 65 million, in hedging its bets, the UK has placed ‘Advanced’ orders for Covid-19 vaccines as follows:-
• 100 million doses from Oxford University (England), with the intention of donating doses surplus to the UK’s needs to poor countries in the third world (wherever needed) e.g. Africa, India etc.
• 30 million doses from BioNtech/Pfizer (Germany), and
• 60 million doses from Valneva (France).Interesting that the UK is so much into vaccines.
Do you need an antibody activation certificate or something like that?
I remember in the 60ties and 70ties when i got a shot (pox...) i had to show up at the doctor after a week or so to make sure, the vaccine was active.
How about travel restrictions? Will vaccines help? My wife and i want to go to Russia to visit relatives, not an easy task, because we face week long quarantines at entry and after return.
Even though Europe is mostly through with the mess (first wave), free travel will long remain a dream. The families of our kids will do vacation only in G. for the time being, same for us. Any local outbreak anywhere in Europe initiates lockdowns and travel bans.Yes, Boris screwed things up at the start of the Pandemic by not acting swiftly enough to put Britain into lockdown, and abandoned testing when it seemed an impossible task.
Since then Boris has done his best to beat the pandemic, being very cautious with every decision he makes e.g. mass antibody testing programme (20% sample of the population, for research purposes only); ensuring we have more than enough vaccines at the earliest opportunity, and reopening the economy in small steps (once every two weeks).
So I don’t know if any form of antibody activation certificate will be required or not; Boris isn’t making ‘arbitrary’ decisions in advance, but makes the final ‘detailed’ decisions at the last minute; tailored made to fit the current situation at the time. It’s a strategy that businesses find frustrating, but it’s one that seems to be working. For example, he gave two weeks’ notice of his intent to allow pubs and restaurants to reopen (subject to the downward trends in ‘positive cases’ and ‘deaths’ to continue), but he didn’t release the ‘fine’ details on what ‘Regulations’ the pubs and restaurants would have to comply to in order to be able to open until 48 hours beforehand; which didn’t give the pubs and restaurant owners much time to make the necessary arrangements to comply to the ‘Regulations’. And although his final decision was bold e.g. lowing the social distancing from 2m to 1m+, and it did come with a caveat that if it didn’t work he would roll back on the reopening of pubs and restaurants.
His strategy seems to have worked, because in spite of the increased risks, the ‘new cases’ and ‘deaths’ have continued downwards; which has surprised (but delighted) the Government. Consequently, on the phrase “Hope for the best, but plan for the worst” that Boris used last week; his latest ‘Broadcast to the Nation’ was for the Government to aim for an attempt of being able to abolish ‘Social Distancing’ completely in England by “No earlier than 1st November” but before Christmas, but stressing “No promises”, just “Best Efforts”!
As regards travel restriction. The UK Government introduced ‘travel corridors’ (air bridges), which took effect on 10th July; a list of 59 countries where people can travel from without the need to quarantine in the UK e.g. countries where the British Government has deemed the pandemic is on a par or better than in the UK; which obviously excludes the USA, but includes most European countries.
Apparently
some here are wrong AGAIN. Way off.
US hits 1,000 coronavirus deaths for second straight day, hospitalizations approach record
The U.S. hit 1,000 coronavirus deaths for a second straight day amid a continued spike in COVID-19 cases across the country.
The Johns Hopkins University data dashboard reported 1,195 U.S. coronavirus-related deaths Wednesday, the second consecutive day with more than a thousand fatalities. Meanwhile, the Covid Tracking Project showed nearly 60,000 people are hospitalized with the virus across the country, marking a continue rise from the end of June.
Hospitalizations are only about 200 short of the peak from April.
With more than 4 million cases and almost 150k deaths in US, I dont know how they have the face to keep minimizing the virus. But hey, MAGA!I don't know that "they"(1) are "minimizing the virus" nearly as much as "they"(2) are exaggerating and lying about what "they"(1) are actually saying.
Among all the posts so far ,I can't say there is a lie in any of them because the information are closely related to the world wide news so far and also no one can be 100% specific when it comes to issues of this kind because day in day out the data keeps on changing and the measures that are been put in place keeps on changing as more find outs are been made . Hence I can conclude to say the is any complete lie in any of the posts
Perhaps "they" just have a different opinion, avoid groupthink or maybe they just keep an open mind on the subject of a brand new virus that even the scientist are having a bit of trouble getting to know. Many look to other sources than media for information. So easy to copy and paste, takes little thought. Not sure anyone is purposely minimizing the virus. Maybe some are seeing the many effects it is having on our society, and not just concentrating on numbers.
Trump is “purposely minimizing the virus”; he has done so right from the start of the pandemic when he made the claim that the virus would quickly disappear and made little effort to combat it.
From across the pond we see Trump daily making stupid statements of denial that there’s a serious problem, and bosting that he’s doing a good job while not actually doing much to combat the virus; and often making statements or decisions that actually makes the pandemic in the USA worse.
While, unlike Trump, in other countries around the world where the virus is now under control Government Leaders have prioritised the pandemic as pubic enemy number ‘1’, and have taken stringent measures to tackle the pandemic and keep it under control; measures far more stringent than measures taken in the USA.
• New Covid-19 cases in the USA are now just shy of 70,000 a day with no sing of declining.
• Covid-19 related deaths in the USA are now as high as they were on the 7th June, and have been on the rise since the 5th July; and still rising.
• 1,165 Covid-19 related deaths in the USA on 21st July.
• 1,205 Covid-19 related deaths in the USA on 22nd July.
Covid-19 has now become one of the prime causes of deaths in the USA; and it’s not just the elderly dying; people with diabetes and people with obesity (of all ages) are also high risk of dying from Covid-19. Yet what is Trump doing about it; very little compared to what other world Leaders do.You need to consider the stats from the very beginning of the virus, not just consider values from June until today. The all-time death toll has been cut in half. We fully expected the rate of infection to go up when we started reopening our states as well as the increase in testing. Each Governor was responsible for opening their states. Each came up with their own individual plan. Most fared very well and out of 50 states, the majority are doing well and having daily deaths in single digits, even with some showing an expected increase in infections.
It seems unintelligent to claim COVID is the number one cause of death in the US. It's a pandemic.
I have become winery of hearing other countries are doing something different. Once again, Trump has no real power to overstep the Governor sessions for their individual states. You can say our Governors are doing nothing that would be more accurate. You don't seem to understand our laws in regards to this situation.
And exactly what do you feel other countries have done differently, in regards to mitigation?
Have you been looking at your own countries' stats? The US is five times bigger, and we have very different situations due to having very large populated cities. It's really very hard to compare many of the European cities to that of what we have in the States.
US total death per million 446
UK death toll per million 673
Not sure how you feel the UK has done better combating COVID? I have looked at the charts and see UK is doing very well now. Not sure when the UK reopened its economy. And not sure of how they reopened it. Here in the US, we had Govners all with different ideas of when and how to reopen their economies, some never really closed their economies.
I do realize many small European countries seem to have done very well. but the major European countries have not done much better than the US. One can see Germany did very well.Sharlee, please understand: As all of Europe has "bent the curve", the US has also bent the curve, only not downward but upward.
While the US is adding some 3 to 4 deaths/million every day (divide 1000 a day/330 million), this same figure is almost constant in old Europe. From today total numbers: Italy +5 (that is 0,08), Spain +3, Germany +5; France +10; add another 20 from continental Europe to fill up for a comparable population . Totally different picture. Europe has the matter under control and knows what to do when there is the slightest indication for a second wave.
German chancellor Angela Merkel made a statement in our Bundestag. She said in a very diplomatic manner that the virus uncovered the true face of populism. Without mentioning names everybody immediately understood who was ment: Bolsonaro, Johnson and ...
Johnson got sick himself and he changed his point of view. This is why the UK was hit badly but since has bent the curve. So while the UK is not quite where other European countries are, the UK is closing in.
We all live in the western world. We all come from developed countries. We use resources, technology and science. But if some administrations fail to organise, fail in responsibility and leadership, fail to allow science to show the way, it is no miracle that handling outcome is so much different.
And please, other countries have the same elderly care home situation, have the same administrative hurdles to overcome with federal/central and state/local responsibilities - that is no excuse.
There is a reason why approval rate for Chancellor Merkel is up and for President T. is down. Just saying.. ( and i never voted for the lady).I think I explained clearly that we do things differently here in the US. Each state has a Government as do our cities. The Governors in each state provided their own mitigations. The Federal Government helped when asked. Many here do not blame the president, we are unhappy with certain Governors for their lack of handling COVID.
Although this could have been expected, none have ever had to handle such a crisis. The blame should certainly not be put on Trump's head alone. The Governors would not hear of any Federal Government interference. Daily they were on TV expressing that... Now they turn and blame Trump. This is the way of the Democrats, they make little sense, and anyone with a clear head realizes this.
I would well think Merkel would truly dislike Trump, he has pointed out many times that Germany is not up to date with the amount that was in the NATO agreement that Germany would spend yearly spend on their national defense. It well appears Merkel is well-liked by her citizen's, she seems very capable, Trump has been a thorn in her side from their first meeting.With due respect, certainly the US is doing things differently than other countries. Especially politicizing a pandemic. The US is exceptional in how much the nation is divided, even on something as unpolitical as a disease.
Lets try to stick to numbers and facts:
A real treat is worldometer, a website where the historic track of the pandemic in a country can be looked up. Every country had a peak in daily new cases (almost every country except the US). It must be understood that this peak was and is only the beginning of the tragedy. Italy had its peak end of March. At that time some 10.000 fatalities. By today with curve totally flattened: 35.000 deaths. Factor 3,5. Same for other countries: Spain: 4,1 - Germany 9,0 - South Korea 6,8 - China 4,2.
Means from the day that daily new infections peaked the death count multiplied by 3,5 to 9,0 (with the countries with best handling having the highest multiplier).
The US has not even peaked, so what to think. Lets have a closer look. The state of New York, or possibly Michigan indeed have peaked. Doing the same trick for NY and you get factor 3,8. Well within what was found with complete nations on our planet.
Do you want me to do this calculation on the US of today? Will get to death numbers in the range US casualties of WWII.
Shifting responsibility from one level of management to another, with respect to what is still ahead, this i would call "failure to provide assistance", isn´t that a criminal offense?I am more than willing to stick to the stats. What I am not willing to agree with is that our president is at the center of being blamed for how the virus was and is being handled.
That blame is at the feet of the individual Gov. A good example of the ridiculous politics of our country. The Governors have once again made it very clear they are legally responsible for school reopening, and once again they are coming up with their very own individual plans on how to reopen the schools in their state. They have made it very clear they will not take any form of advice from the Federal Government.
No one is forcing them to do anything, they have the sole power, once again this is the law... It their plans fail they will surely blame it on the President.
This is a sad fact, they blamed him for his handling of the virus and the deaths in their states. Trump took every opportunity to offer any form of assistance to these Governors, as well as did what he could within the laws.
I think anyone that does not know the facts of what power the president had to do anything in regards to the virus should not insult how he handled it. I realize the media is giving a skewed picture of what has gone on. But they neglect to give all the facts, the very important fact Trump had very little power to do anything but provide what the Governors asked fro. he had the right to form a task force that he did early in Jan. He had the power to close our borders to air travel from China and Europe. He used wartime laws to make our factories to build vents. He provided the stimulus to support citizens while they were in lockdown. He poured outrages amounts of money into research to find a vaccine and curative medications.
I am a Trump supporter, I am 70 years old, and I have never experienced a hands-on president that is willing to solve problems. He has tackled problems that have plagued America for decades. No, he is not popular with the Democrats. They have been made to look like fools... They care little about anything but power and keeping the poor from ever realizing anything but crumbs, programs that hand them a bit, but never enough. Trump is for all the people, funny so many do not have the intelligence to see that. Maybe because many do not actually know anything but what they are fed.
In the case of Trump and the Virus. He has done and will continue to do all he can by the power that was given to him. In the case of a pandemic, he has very little and has done what the law has allowed.
So, when you look to blame anyone, look at the Governors of each state. They called the shots, and that is just a fact that not many are willing to realize. They just would rather scream"it's all Trump's fault" And I can assure you no one is but those same governors are handling school reopenings. Trump has zero power to make those decisions.
Please keep that in mind if you witness a Governor on the tube blaming Trump for some child getting COVID after returning to school... Not taking any blame although it was their very own reopening plan.Sharlee, we Europeans certainly have the privilege of not living in the mess the US has maneuvered itself into.
Last week Corona related fatality rate in Europe was in the range of 0,5% of natural mortality, down from almost 10%. The US is at 15 to 20 times that number today. This is total failure. You better forget the blame game and stick your heads together to solve the issue.
This discussion thread is ongoing already for some 3 months. If you reread the discussion contributions, the development in the US was predictable. Why do laymen seem to have more insight than complete administrations?
Most of the world is simply aghast and stunned of how miserable the response of the US is to the pandemic. Unbelieveable, a very sad story.
Sharlee, I’ve read your other comments, and for clarity, I am not disputing that decisions are made at State level; I understand that, as I’ve explained on several previous occasions in this forum e.g. it’s the same in other countries, like Australia, Germany and the UK.
In the UK the decisions on how to handle the pandemic is not made by Boris (UK Prime Minister), they are made separately and independently by each of the Government Leaders in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The only part of the UK that our Prime Minister has full control of is England. So consequently the laws on social distancing, and on which parts of the economy can open, and under what Regulations does vary from nation to nation e.g. England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
However the big difference between the way the pandemic is being handled in the UK and in the USA is that:-
• In the UK the pandemic is NOT Political e.g. ALL political Parties, and Governments (regardless to politics) are working together to fight a common enemy; the virus.
• In the UK the Prime Minister, all political Leaders, all politicians, all four nations, and the general public at large, take the pandemic seriously.
• In the UK the Prime Minister (and all political leaders of the four nations) have made a point of basing their decisions on the advice of the scientific and medical experts; not the economists.
I agree the State Governors (Republicans and Democrats alike) are making a hash of things, none of them that I’ve seen on TV (except for the Governor in New York) have a clue on how to combat the virus, and all too often seem too focused on keeping the economy open regardless, and too many young American people just don’t care about social distancing.
However, it’s at a time like this that you need a President who can lead, to unite the country and to encourage the people. But in watching Trump speak on TV over the months, his ‘words’ are divisive, and rather than encouraging the people to help fight the pandemic he has repeatedly been ‘dismissive’ of the pandemic (often in denial) and politicised the wearing of masks e.g. until recently he was very ‘anti-mask wearing’, calling people wusses if they wore a mask.
Also, throughout the months I’ve watched Trump on TV he has often been at odds with the Scientists and Medical Advisors. Trump is neither a Scientist nor a Medical Expert, and yet, time and time again on TV he’s claimed that he knows better than they do.
When Trump belatedly put the USA into lockdown in late March, it was Trump who stated on TV (in front of the cameras) that he wanted to economy to be reopened re-opened again on the 1st April (which never happened); but in accordance with the wishes of Trump, the States did start to re-open the economies again just six weeks after shutdown (far too soon); hence the mess the USA is in now.
Covid-19 is now (for this year) the one of the main causes of death in many southern States, and it was avoidable; many European countries did manage to keep the death toll from Covid-19 low.
With reference to your comment “And exactly what do you feel other countries have done differently, in regards to mitigation?”-
• Shutting their economies down early like Greece, Germany etc. Something Italy, Spain, the UK and USA did not do.
• Not reopening their economies until:-
(i) the virus had peaked, and was in decline for a minimum of 14 consecutive days,
(ii) the number of new cases were down to manageable levels,
(iii) mass testing was fully operational, and
(iv) sufficient contact tracers were employed, trained and ready to do their job.
(v) Once the economies were re-opened, to establish a ‘whack-a-mole’ strategy of control for future flare-ups.
Unlike every other country, the USA did not wait the 14 days, it only waited 7 days.
Unlike every other country, the USA did not wait for new cases to come down to manageable levels, in the USA new cases were still high when States reopened their economies, and now are sky rocketing.
Mass testing had problems in the USA, just as we had problems with mass testing in the UK; albeit we have now largely resolved those problems, but not so in the USA.
The USA never did employ enough contract tracers. The CDC recommendation was for a minimum of 100,000 contact tracers. As of 18th June, the USA only had 37,100 contact tracers. In contract the UK (with a population a 5th of the size of the USA) now has 27,000 contact tracers.
All countries that have successfully got the pandemic under control, including the UK, use a ‘whack-a-mole’ strategy, effectively and ruthlessly. In contrast State Governors in the USA are ‘firefighting’ the pandemic, and are far too reluctant to lockdown the economy to control the virus e.g. far more interested in trying to keep the economy going. And there is NO National Strategy from Trump, who by and large is just ignoring the issues, and focusing too much on the Presidential Election.
In answer to your last three paragraphs: Yes, I do check my own country’s stats (UK), and like the USA, the UK also has large populated cities e.g. London is comparable to New York City. The easiest way to make a comparison is too compare the EU with the USA. The EU (with 27 States) has almost double the population to the USA (50 States), yet the EU has managed the pandemic far more effectively, and the death toll across the EU is far lower than the USA.
In answer to your comment “Not sure how you feel the UK has done better combating COVID?”
At the start the UK, Italy and Spain made the same mistake as the USA e.g. they were too slow in shutting down their economies, and putting their people under lockdown; and like the USA these countries paid a high price e.g. death tolls more than double of what it would have been if only these countries had acted more swiftly in the first place.
However, since then Italy, Spain and the UK, have all diligently followed the scientific and Medical Advice from the Scientific and Medical Experts, and have put their economies as secondary to the health of the people. The USA has not, the USA has always, and still is, far more intent on putting its economy first, regardless to how many lives it costs.
In answer to your questions: “Not sure when the UK reopened its economy; and not sure of how they reopened it.”-
The UK is four nations, the three Celtic nations (Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland), and the Anglo-Saxon Nation of England. The Government in England is right-wing Conservative, the Government in Northern Ireland is hard-right wing; the Governments in Wales and Scotland are Socialists.
However, in spite of the political and social differences of the four nations of the UK, England has taken the lead (based on Scientific and Medical Advice), and the three Celtic Nations have followed England’s lead, but at their own pace, and with modifications (variants) to the Regulations laid out in England.
So below is when England re-opened its economy; the three Celtic Nations in the UK followed a similar pattern.
1. 23rd March until 1st June: Only ‘essential services’ allowed to be open e.g. Medical, Infrastructure, food and DIY.
2. 15th May: Garden Centres added to the list of ‘Essential Services’, and therefore allowed to open again for the first time since the 23rd May.
3. 1st June: Schools allowed to reopen.
4. 15th June: Non Essential shops allowed to reopen for first time since 23rd March.
5. 4th July: Pubs and Restraints, hairdressers and tourism allowed to reopen. And non-essential workers allowed to go back to work.
6. 25th July: Health and Fitness e.g. Gyms, swimming pools etc. allowed to reopen.
The only parts of the UK economy still not open (and with no indication of when they might open) are the nightclubs and conference rooms e.g. cinemas and theatres etc. Albeit Boris (Prime Minister) has stated his desire to have the UK economy fully open by no earlier than the 1st November, but before Christmas.
Certainly, from across the pond, the ‘THEY’ is clearly ‘Trump’, who is “minimizing the virus”. Right from the start of the pandemic Trump was in denial and dismissive of the pandemic, and even now isn’t fully engaged in fighting the pandemic.
I must disagree. I followed Trump's comments due to what he was aware of the virus. In the first days, he was given poor information, that is really just being discovered today. In the first days, he was told the virus would not most likely cause a problem. As he discovered the first case he stopped travel from China. He did this with many to telling him it was not necessary. To include Fauci, WHGO, CDC, Biden, Pelosi, and many more...
I note so many are quick to say he is not handling the virus properly. I have also noted no one step up with any suggestions to what he could have done differently. many hung up on words he said, "it will go away"... etc. No one really realizes that this virus was an unknown virus, brand new. Many com[lain about testing not realizing the true science that is needed to develop these very tests. The fact is our National stockpile was empty due to our own CDC not keeping them as they should be kept.
I gave tired of all the rhetoric slamming Trump for his handling of the virus. He actually has done a good job in a terrible crisis. If one wants to lay blame lay it at the feet of the Governors. Fact --- they demanded he keeps his nose out except for answering their requests for supplies and money. He had no power to control how the states handled the virus. Hence over half in New York were Nursing home patients. The Governors bare the blame of how the virus was handled. Trump provides huge secondary facilities to New York, they used them little. New York's blood is on the hands of their Governor. So, when you are producing your stats keep in mind we had 50 Governors making decisions, not the president, he had no power to do so... Now some of the Governors blame Trump, let the fact show he was in constant contact offer help to each and every state.
He was fully engaged providing 50 states with everything he could possibly do to help with what was needed to treat the pandemic. He is still very much involved, and once again reminded by the Governors he has no say so in the handling of the virus. yet when anything goes wrong, they are quick to Blame Trump... It's actually ridiculous. Let's see how the Gov handles reopening of the schools because that is also up to each individual Gov. Yet they complain daily about Trump's suggestions. It's up to them, not Trump. This is just a fact.I know we disagree with each other on these points, but then again that’s because you are a faithful Trump supporter to a point that you are blinkering out the other realities that would show Trump for who he really is.
Picking up on your first point: In the first days (as you put it) Trump had as much advanced notice and as much information as Boris (UK Prime Minister) and every other Government Leader had in Europe (and around the world). So it is incorrect to say “he was told the virus would not most likely cause a problem”: Look at how the rest of the world responded at the time, for example:-
• South Korea had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on 20th January; South Korea took swift action to prevent the spread of the pandemic from the 4th February (just two weeks later).
• Italy suspended flights from China on the 31st January. Italy had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 20th February. Italy is put into ‘full’ lockdown on 9th March (2 ½ weeks later).
• Spain had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 31st January. Spain is put into ‘full’ lockdown on 14th March (six weeks later).
• The UK also had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 31st January, but didn’t impose a ‘full’ lockdown until the 23rd March (almost two months later).
• The USA had its first confirmed case of Covid-19 on the 20th January (10 days before the UK and Spain). The USA suspends flights from China on the 31st January (the same day that Italy did); the only difference is that it didn’t include ‘American citizens’ who were still allowed to travel back to the USA, and not quarantine e.g. which allowed the virus to spread further. Whereas in Europe the travel bans did include the countries own citizens, who when repatriated did have to quarantine for 14 days.
The USA was the LAST major western economy to impose a lockdown, going into ‘partial’ lockdown days after the UK had gone into ‘full’ lockdown; in spite of the fact that the USA had its first confirmed Covid-19 case 10 days before Spain and the UK.
So (just like the UK) long before March, Trump knew what was coming, but chose to ignore it.
The UK, Spain and Italy were slow to respond, and paid the price. The other European countries, who responded quickly, got off lightly: Most notably Greece, who lockdown their economy early and hard, and consequently with a population of over 10 million have had just 201 Covid-19 deaths. Likewise, South Korea, who took swift and harsh actions to control the pandemic, with a population of over 50 million have had just 298 Covid-19 related deaths.
And the other BIG mistake Trump made was to ‘press’ for the USA economy to re-open far too soon, long before the pandemic was under control in the USA. The USA was the last country to go into lockdown; in comparison to the tough lockdown measures imposed in countries across Europe, the lockdown in the USA was only ‘partial’ (less effective), and the USA stayed in ‘lockdown’ far shorter than any European country e.g. less than six weeks, whereas some European countries stayed in lockdown for twice as long (three months).
Moving onto your second paragraph: It’s Trump who kept saying (and still says) “it will go away….” which is a lie. The virus will only go away if you take decisive action to combat it, which is something Trump has NEVER done.
With reference to your comment:
“I note so many are quick to say he is not handling the virus properly. I have also noted no one step up with any suggestions to what he could have done differently.”
All Trump needs to do is look at how other Governments around the world e.g. the actions Governments have taken in Europe (including the UK) to understand what he could have done differently. For example, he should have shut the economy down quicker and harder, and left it shut down until the pandemic was under control, impose harsher rules on ‘Social Distancing’ (like ALL the European countries (including the UK) did; and he should have promoted ‘mask wearing’ and ‘testing’; rather than doing what he did, which was discouraging people from wearing masks and deriding ‘mass testing’.
I know the USA have had, and still has, big problems with mass testing; the UK had similar problems. The only difference is that we didn’t have a President that ridiculed testing all the time; we had a Prime Minister who was devoted to resolving the issues, which (to a large extent) Boris Johnson has achieved e.g. 97.5% of test result in the UK are now returned within 24 hours; in spite of the massive problems we had with testing in April and May.
As regards your penultimate paragraph: I am fully aware that the handling of the pandemic has been done at State level and not Federal level; that is exactly the same as it is the world through e.g. in Australia, Germany and the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). The main difference, which does put the blame squarely at Trump’s feet, is that he has NOT led e.g. he’s been in denial about the virus, and trivialising it, from day one e.g. making stupid statements like “it will go away….”, and then making no attempt to encourage the States to combat the pandemic. Whereas the other world leaders (including Boris) have fully engaged with their ‘State’ Leaders, to work together to fight a common enemy (regardless to politics).
As regards your last paragraph: No Trump is not, and never has been, fully engaged in support the States in fighting the pandemic; he’s been too busy in trying to reopen the economy to try to win votes in the forthcoming Presidential Election in November, rather than worrying about the lives it costs by opening up an economy in a middle of a pandemic.
Your last point is a prime example. Trump shouldn’t being trying to force the States to reopen the schools in August, regardless; he should be taking scientific and medical advice on whether it’s safe to do so, and if not, how it may be made safe to do so. We have similar problems in the UK with regards to schools, but the whole situation is being handled differently.Opening the schools by law is up to the Governors of the individual states. The Dems are playing politics with their reopening of the schools. They need to blame someone if their plans to reopen schools fail. Just not up to Trump, anyone that knows our laws realizes this.
The Governors made a mess of how they handled COVID, and have made every attempt to blame Trump. He had no input on how they handled COVID that is a fact. As it is a fact they must handle reopening of the schools.
You can blame Trump as you please. However, I have watched him do each and everything he could to work with the Governors, and he used his power if the law allowed it to solve hard problems that he faced with the CDC and WHO.
It is futile for us to continue this conversation, I don't feel you just do not understand our laws.
In the end, it matters little, because as a citizen of America I am very aware of our laws. It is also very apparent many Americans are not aware of our laws or choose to ignore them in the case of what power Trump really had when it came to making decisions about the virus.
Yes it was clear he was dismissive of it, when he closed the borders to China and then Europe.
Even when the WHO at that time denounced his actions and said they were not necessary.
Trump could have declared Martial Law, or something akin to it that the Law allows, to force States to do as he directed.
But he did not, so the issues or non-issues with the virus and how it was handled are largely the responsibility of the States. This is how the American system is set up, it can be a strength and a weakness, when dealing with a pandemic it is clearly too much for most of our incompetent Governors and their State bodies to handle, many of them pass the responsibility down to the counties, or city councils to deal with.
The American media's attack on Trump, and everything he states, rather than working to support the government to get out a clear message, also goes a long way to the problems we have had.
And then there is the good old fashioned rioting and protesting going on, where tens of thousands of people gather together to help spread the virus by ignoring all social distancing or self containment.
America is divided and divisive, its politics, its media, its people... its beyond repair and its destabilization is going to continue... it will only hasten once Trump is removed, the collapse will be like an avalanche post election.
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/07/31/c … th-crisis/
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/j … in-n580259
https://jonathanturley.org/2020/07/17/s … epartment/
https://trendingpolitics.com/nyc-mayor- … -protests/
Every tale alone, is no big deal, when you weave them all together to get a quilt of the current State of the Nation.... it is on its way to collapse.
Economically....
Socially....
A people divided... distracted... demoralized by their own 'leaders' and lied to by their MSM.I don’t dispute the bulk of what you say e.g. a large number of the State Governments are as incompetent and or irresponsible as the Federal Government: That is very much in evident from watching on TV the crap the State Governors spout.
I agree that the American media should support the Federal Government to get out a clear message [as you say]: But what is that clear message:-
• Trump has politicised the wearing of masks; he almost never wears a mask, he’s has stated in the pass that only wusses wear masks: He does not lead by example, throughout most of the whole pandemic he has not encouraged people to wear masks; he sets a poor example.
• Throughout the whole pandemic Trump has been dismissive of ‘Social Distancing’. He never ‘Social Distanced’ and he doesn’t encourage his supporters to ‘Social Distance’; prime examples of that being his political rallies during the pandemic e.g. the Tulsa rally on 20th June, when all ‘social distancing’ rules were deliberately ignored: He does not lead by example, and he sets a poor example.
• Trump's enthusiasm for hydroxychloroquine, a drug that hasn’t been proven to be effective, and where the scientific evidence is mounting that it’s not effective; sets a poor example.
• Trump’s advice to take disinfectant internally was dangerous advice; sets a poor example.
• Trump’s constant push, throughout the pandemic, to reopen the economy (contrary to scientific and medical advice) e.g. his claim in late March that the economy would reopen again on the 1st April: Reckless advice, sets a poor example.
• Trump’s constant claim that ‘testing is bad’ because the more tests you do the more infected people you find!!!! A counterproductive attitude; and one that shows his ignorance of the situation.
I’ve seen no evidence of Trump trying to ‘unite’ the nation; I’ve seen no evidence of Trump sending out any clear messages for people to wear masks and socially distance; I’ve seen no evidence of sympathy or empathy from Trump for the 156,752 people who have lost their lives to Covid-19, or their families who have lost loved ones. In fact Trump almost never talks about the pandemic, when he makes public speeches his priorities are always on other things.
So I ask again, what is that clear message from Trump to the American people in support of fighting the pandemic?
Below is yesterday’s Briefing to the Nation by British Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, demonstrating how a GOOD Leader should ‘Unite the Nation’ and ‘Encourage’ people to fight the pandemic:-
Boris Johnson reintroduces coronavirus restriction measures (Address to the Nation): https://youtu.be/nRSNapbJZncI assume you check stats on Worldometer. I have pointed this out before but if one is comparing the UK's state to that of the UK one needs only do the math. The USA population is 5 times large in the then the UK. Yesterday the Death toll in the UK reached 46,119 x5 =230,595. The death toll in the USA as of yesterday was 156,813, as you can see the UK is experiencing a far greater death toll. Death per million in the UK 679 --USA 474 per million. I listened to the Prime Minister, he admitted at this point the numbers of infection are on the rise, as many countries ar having this surge so is the UK. He certainly has projected the same exact message President Trump has been sharing here in the USA. He certainly is more eloquent in his delivery, but the same message...
If one were to consider the death toll in the UK, one could surmise that the crisis was handled poorly, as you have stated the US has handled the crisis. Or perhaps both countries did the best job possible. As you feel Prime Minster Johnson is uniting the nation, I can assure you many here in the US feel very confident President Trump has handled a very difficult situation well. President Trump has from the beginning tried to assure the country that not only is he doing all he can to combat the virus, but yes, he has said it will go away. I took those words as comforting not off handly negative as the media twisted the statement. I would think someone removed from the US could see our media for what it has become, as many of us here do.
At this point, many countries that had been doing well are faltering at this point. One should keep in mind this is a virus, and viruses especially new ones are very hard to tame. As H1N1 which is still around, and the flu they are vaccination for once again this fall. H1N1 pledged us all way back in 2009 and is not about to disappear. It has mutated down to a less fatal virus, as we can hope COVID will at some point.
I am sorry to say I won't address your points, due to all were media-driven. Each one if put into the proper context shows the media's dishonesty. Which could be very easily done. However, I am not one that is willing to do this due to the sheer time it would take, and one can see what persuasion you lean... It would be futile to argue the point.
To understand the context of Trump's statements one needs only research full content of a give interview or press conference where the statement was taken from. The media conveniently takes a sentence or two and just does not use them in the context they were meant. This is unfortunate, but many here in America can see directly through the media ploy. Although many do not care one way or the other about what Trump said, if true or not true, they want him gone. Transparency does not sit well with many here in America.Some of your points regarding Trump's comments are completely accurate.
Some are the result of the Media taking his words out of context.
If the media were working to minimize whatever harm Trump's at times confusing communication could lead to, rather than maximizing it for 'click bait' and for political bias, all people the world over would be better off for it. But that is not the state of the "News" media today.
As the well educated Socialist that you are, I am sure you recognize the many Marxist political tools being deployed in America today, complicit in this is most "News" media outlets, the Democratic Party and those politicians at the Federal and many State levels.
From "defund the police" efforts to "racism is a public health emergency" to "all white people are inherently evil" the all out "progressive" push can be seen at every level and from a variety of venues throughout society in many various locations.
These are not small isolated efforts of minor import... they are rally cries taken up by State governments and agencies, by the NY Times and CNN, by the Democratic Party itself.
Neither Party has a leader than can bridge this divide and mend the country.
And even if such a messiah existed... the economic collapse that is looming on the horizon like a tsunami coming in to the shoreline will make it impossible for the country to see better days ahead, no matter who is President.
Its just a matter of how bad things will get, how out of control and desperate the people will become, before order is once again restored.
As for Trump's message, he gives good speeches from time to time... a recent one at Mt. Rushmore is a good example of how the "left-wing" media conflates and denigrates and misrepresents what he says any chance they get.
The revolutionaries and elitists make strange bedfellows under the Democratic Party umbrella. Throw in those that only care about power as politics is want to attract, and you have an ugly festering union of causes all bent toward the destruction of Trump even if it comes at the destruction of the nation and all that made it a place everyone else in the world tried to escape to.You raise some interesting points Ken (as usual).
Propaganda and political spin etc. are not ‘Marxist’ specific political tools; they are tools that have always been used by all political parties (left & right); but yes I am fully aware that a lot of the stupid remarks made by Trump (such as his suggestion of taking disinfectant internally) is going to make good fodder for ‘click bait’ and political spin by the news media.
And certainly, highlighting stupid remarks like “taking disinfectant internally” would detract from the main message; if there was a main message to detract from: But I’ve seen little (or no) evidence of Trump ever seriously giving any main message to the American people in support of fighting the pandemic.
“Defund the police”, “Racism” and “white supremacy” etc., are all part of American politics that I don’t pay much attention to; as I’ve got far better things to do with my time than follow American politics e.g. currently in the middle of renovating our home-office. In this respect, I fast forward over our recordings of the American Politics and just playback the bits of the American News Media relevant to the pandemic, including the rare occasions when Trump holds a Press Conference relevant to the pandemic (which isn’t often).
Yep, that is the impression I get: That neither Party has a ‘Leader’ who can unite the nation (the American people); it does seem very much a deeply divided nation, with no signs that those divisions can be healed quickly or easily: Which is sad when the USA is in economic crises and in the middle of a pandemic; the one time more than any other that you need a Leader to heal wounds and unite the people.
I am sure that to Trump Supporters specifically, and to Republicans in general, that Trump does “….give good speeches from time to time….” e.g. Mt. Rushmore. However, if you are not a Trump supporter (Republican) it’s going to be a matter of opinion on whether they are good speeches (politics). However (regardless to politics) the one thing that is lacking in such speeches is Trump taking the pandemic seriously; the one aspect of the USA which (to me as an outsider) is of particular interest at this time.
In contrast, Boris Johnson (UK Prime Minister) is a Conservative (right wing capitalist), and therefore, with me being a Socialist, Boris is someone I did not vote for; and during normal times I am vehemently opposed to most of his political policies; with the exception to his Environmental policies. Yet Boris frequently appears on TV to talk to the ‘Nation’ about the pandemic, and he has not only got the support of ALL political parties in the UK (including the Socialist Parties) in his fight against the pandemic, but he also has the full backing of the British People e.g. he has managed to unite the nation in the fight against the pandemic.
I do empathise with your message about the direction the USA is going, economically and socially, in that “Britain has been there and done that” e.g. prior to the 1st world war Britain was the wealthiest nation on Earth; now we are just a third rate country with (because of Brexit) set to become marginalised even further in the years to come. So it does look as if in the 21st century the USA is going in the same direction that Britain went in the 20th century.I'm sure that you're right - no liberal (Trump hater) is going to take any speech he makes as anything but garbage. They will take things like turning to a medical expert and asking if it is possible that disinfectant taken internally might be of help and turn it into "TRUMP SAYS TO SWALLOW BLEACH!". I've seen that video byte over and over and it was nothing like what you're portraying happened, which is a very good example of why the Trump haters (worldwide) will never find anything he says to be of any value. When he does say something rather foolish it is grossly exaggerated or spun into something entirely different than what he said. It reminds me of another stupid claim; that Trump banned all Muslims from travelling to the US, when he did absolutely nothing of the sort.
Fair point wilderness, but you have to be pretty dumb to not know that taking disinfectant internally isn’t dangerous. And that’s what dumbfounded me when I saw Trump on TV ask such a stupid question. And Trump’s lack of understanding of mass testing is just as dumbfounding. It’s his stupidity over simple issues like these that portrays Trump to the world as being ‘Thick’; you don’t need any left wing media to show Trump up, he does it all by himself through his own stupid remarks and his frequent ‘tweets’.
FYI I’m not a Liberal, that’s too far right wing for me, I’m a Socialist. And true to say I do hate Trump, but that’s not because he’s a Republican e.g. I had no gripe against Ronald Reagan or George Bush, I had respect for them as the democratically elected Presidents of the USA.
Yes I know Trump didn’t ban all Muslims from travelling to the USA, but what he did do was to sign ‘Executive Order 13769 in January 2017, Official Title “Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States”, and politically labelled as a “Muslim ban” by opponents to such a measure.
The signing of the order did provoke widespread condemnation and protests, and became known as a ‘Muslim ban’ because Trump had previously called for temporarily banning Muslims from entering America, and because all the affected countries, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen are Muslim countries.
The response from Britain at the time to Trumps attitude against Muslims was mass protests against Trump across Britain, with over 1.5 million Britain’s signing a petition to ban Trump from entering the UK. Since then the British people have hated Trump more than citizens of any other European country hate Trump e.g. in the UK 67% of the British people hate Trump, 14% don’t have an opinion, and only 18% of Brits actually like Trump.
I understand and appreciate that for people who have right-wing leanings, to them it wasn’t a ‘Muslim ban’, it was a ‘Travel ban’; but that’s politics. However, it’s not so much what Trump did, it’s the way in which he did it and his attitudes which are plain for all to see e.g. if Trump was more ‘Statesman’ like (more Diplomatic) then Trump could have achieved the same thing with his travel ban and hardly anyone in Britain would have noticed, or taken any notice, or cared. But it’s the way that Trump does things, and the way that he says things, and his attitudes (rather than his politics) that riles the British Public.Further to my last point wilderness:-
Response to Trump’s Travel ban by the Speaker of the House of Commons (a right-wing Conservative MP), in the UK: https://youtu.be/vELQlgoaDdQ
And:
Point of Order raised in British House of Commons (Parliament) regarding President Trump's tweets: https://youtu.be/nsqC1NZIbts
I would concur, but I believe the hardships for America will be far more difficult.
The UK was unified as a people/culture, and they had been hardened by two world wars as well into a unified people.
In contrast there is no more divisive and divided a nation today than the US of A. America going through this hardship will not have a unified people/culture and will not have been hardened and united by world events.
Additionally the UK had a strong ally with close historical beliefs and customs that usurped its position as global leader, it was a peaceful hand over between allies.
America is being usurped by China, hostilities are higher between the two, whereas the UK and USA had been allies, there are no close historical beliefs and customs adjoining China to America, as there are between the UK and USA.
There was not the global devices in place that we have today with the UN, WB, IMF, etc. so they may help in such a transition, but not if China becomes dismissive of their authority or power, which is most likely to occur, as China is not beholden to these Western concepts or concerns. China is all about China, and ensuring the rest of the world is beholden to its whims.Thanks for your feedback Ken.
Yeah, the UK is a unified people to a point, but there are divisions which could yet turn violent if mismanaged by the Government e.g. Brexit and England vs the Celtic Nations:-
• The Irish civil war in the 1920’s which saw southern Ireland becoming independent from England, and the more recent civil war in northern Ireland between 1968 and 1998 which saw the IRA via Sinn Fein (their political wing) signing an uneasy Peace Treaty with England in 1999, and
• The current fight by Scotland to become Independent from England.
Culturally, there is also a divide between northern & southern England, which from time to time causes political friction.
True, Britain did hand back most of its conquered lands peacefully during the 20th century, creating the Commonwealth. And even those countries who had to fight for their Independence from Britain e.g. the USA, India etc., have since become allies to the UK.
However, hostilities between Britain and Russia are as high (if not higher) than the hostilities between the USA and China; so we have the same problem as you, just with a different communist country.I am not referring to today's UK.
I was accenting the differences between the UK transitioning in the 20th Century - to America transitioning in the 21st Century.
I agree with the overall concept you noted - that the UK had to downsize its position in the world and its economy in the 20th And now America faces a similar situation.
There are substantial differences between these two, and more importantly, why it went so smoothly as the UK handed off to the USA... and how it will be quite more painful, for the whole world, as we continue this transition from the USA to China.
Both the UK and Russia are "role" players, 'supporting actors'.
UK's differences and hostilities with Russia are somewhat irrelevant to the global economic turmoil that is currently ongoing, with worsening effects to most nations coming in the years ahead.
The USA is the #1 military and economic power... and it is being usurped in both categories by China.
China is building the newest and best from 5G to Jet Fighters to AI, they are by far the leading industrial nation today, and they are taking the lead in technological and biological breakthroughs.
China will have 8 times the number of STEM graduates than America this year. While America is busy pumping out their new Social Justice graduates (yes there are such degrees handed out in the States) the Chinese are focusing on sciences and technology.From your perspective, as an American, yes, what you say is a valid view point.
But from my perspective, as a European, it’s a different view point.
Yes the transition from the USA to China will be painful for the USA; and the USA trade wars against both China and the EU is having a negative impact on world trade. Certainly, in the past e.g. the Wall Street Crash in the 1930’s and the ‘American Financial Crash’ in 2008 did adversely affect the world, but since the 2009 world recession, both the EU and the UK have built resilience into their economic and financial institutions to protect against future economic failures in the USA; which have been put to the test during the pandemic this year, and have held up exceedingly well. So consequently, any economic failure in the USA in the future will not have the same level of negative impact across Europe now that it would have done in the past.
From a European perspective, it doesn’t matter who we trade with, as long as we trade. From an American perspective, it does matter if they lose out on world trade.
Currently (2018 data):-
• UK exports £30.7 billion ($40 billion) to China
• UK imports £49 ($64 billion) from China.
China accounts for 4.4% of UK exports and 6.8% of UK imports.
• UK exports $140.4 billion to the USA.
• UK imports $121.5 billion from the USA.
USA accounts for 15% of UK exports and about 12% of UK imports.
• USA exports to the UK account for 4% of overall USA exports.
• USA imports from the UK account for 2.4% of overall USA imports.
Currently, 50% of UK Trade is with the EU.
Currently, the three biggest economies in the world, in descending order of size are:-
#1: USA
#2: EU
#3: China
Yes, China has become a world leader in R&D in the last ten years, along with the EU in a number of areas; but the USA does seem to have lost its way in recent years! Silicon Valley was a major coop for the USA in the 1990’s. But the USA has missed a big opportunity with ‘Renewable Energy’ by focusing on fossil fuels rather than investing in R&D in this new technology; while both China and the EU are now reaping the economic benefits of the investments they’ve put into Research and Development of Renewable Energy Technologies.
The USA maybe the #1 military and economic power; but on the military front, while you may fear China’s military, the Russian military is always a constant threat to Europe. In that respect, the EU doesn’t yet have an Army because ever since its proposal back in 2012 the UK has always used its veto to prevent the EU from having an Army. However, now that the UK is leaving the EU, an EU Army is back on the Agenda; put back on the table by Emmanuel Macron (French President) last year.
The reason the UK used its veto to stop the EU from having its own Army is because the UK wanted NATO (the USA) to continue defending Europe against Russia, rather than Europe being able to defend itself against Russia, with NATO as a backup.
The UK may (these days) be a ‘supporting actor’ on the world stage; but in Europe, Russia is NOT; in Europe Russia is a major and constant military threat.Well it is true that I see things from a US perspective and you from a UK/EU perspective.
Your biases and views are driven by what information you can gather from the sources you have and use, which will be different from my own.
" since the 2009 world recession, both the EU and the UK have built resilience into their economic and financial institutions to protect against future economic failures in the USA"
I think there was less of a building a resistance to America involved in 2008 post reactions, it was simply that China is now the oncoming economic Super Power and America is the fading one.
While that trend was being resisted by the Trump Administration, such efforts were not supported by Congress or the American Media, so Trump's efforts to adjust trade agreements and counter China's efforts at global domination have been muted and countered by the very bodies within America that should be supporting and promoting those efforts.
Similar to the resistance within the UK to Brexit, a large percentage of the population wanted it, despite overwhelming MSM and political efforts to convince the populace that Brexit was a bad thing.
Trump's efforts to strengthen America's economy while at the same time reversing its military footprint on the globe has been met with consistent and extreme resistance.Your comment: “Your biases and views are driven by what information you can gather from the sources you have and use, which will be different from my own.” Does come across as a bit condescending, although I’m sure it was not intended that way e.g. your comment gives no credit for my own personal experiences and personal knowledge from living here in the UK/Europe.
With regards to your 2nd & 3rd paragraph; you are dismissing and trivializing a factor, without even bothering to check the details, because it doesn’t sit well with your perceptions. The full policy making process by the UK Government, and similar policies made independently by the EU, is too complex a subject for this forum; but as an example, I shall focus on one aspect of it and summarise in as simplistic terms as I can:-
Following the financial crash of 2009, which forced the British Government in financially bailing out most British banks, to prevent them from going bankrupt, from 2010 the UK Conservative Government started to formulate a series of policies to mitigate against such events in the future.
To put it into simple terms, part of that mitigation was to split the British Banks Business Operations into different zones e.g. ‘high risk’, ‘low risk’, ‘Domestic’ and ‘Business’ etc., and to ‘Ring Fence’ Core Operations.
In simple terms, the practical outcome is that if a Banks ‘high risk’ section of its business collapses, the Bank can NOT draw upon funds (money) from its ‘core operations’ e.g. Domestic Accounts to bail itself out, because those core operations are ‘ring fenced’ e.g. as if they were a separate business.
It’s a lot more complex than I’ve explained, but ‘Ring Fencing’ is a tool that I’ve familiar with from my days in the civil service, and the British Government has also used ‘Ring Fencing’ in a number of other core areas in the British Economy, including the NHS & State Pensions e.g. even in the event of a deep recession in the UK, the NHS & State Pensions are secure by law, so that even a British Government can’t dip into the spending funds (budget) on the NHS or State Pensions to bail the economy out; in other words they are protected against Government cuts.
I’ve only scratched the surface, in my explanation, but even so, the UK’s current resilience against the failing economy in the USA due to the pandemic is real; and has nothing to do with China.
As regards your paragraph 5: You’ve chosen to ignore Trump’s Trade War with the EU, of which (as a European) I have been at the blunt end of; and which has nothing to do with China, other than the fact that Trump doesn’t like the USA being a net importer of goods and services from the EU, no more than he likes the USA being a net importer of goods and services from China e.g. a Nationalistic view rather than a Globalist view. Plus, from what I can see, your arguments in paragraph 5 are more about American politics than Global Trade e.g. Nationalism vs Globalism.
Your penultimate paragraph shows you ignorance (lack of understanding) of the Brexit issue; quite understandably, as you are American and not British.
FYI the majority of the British people did not, nor does not, want Brexit. Yes, a slim majority voted in favour of Brexit in the 2016 Referendum, many duped into voting for it by lies, deceit and propaganda. But within a year of that Referendum, and to this day, both opinion polls and elections have consistently demonstrated that Brexit is not the wishes of the majority; which is why (in spite efforts by Parliament) the Government (Boris) resisted calling a 2nd Referendum, because Boris knew that he would lose.
If you cite the fact that Boris (Conservative Government) won the General Election in November 2019 on a Brexit ticket as proof that the majority of the public want Brexit, then you are ignorant of the short comings of the ‘First Past the Post’ system in the UK.
In the 2019 General Election Boris (Pro Brexit Government) won 56.2% of the seats with just 43.6% of the votes. The other political parties who are pro Brexit accounts for a further 0.8% of the votes; and all of the opposition parties, who are pro-European, and stood on a pro European ticket, won 55.6% of the vote in the General Election.
So don’t tell me that the majority of the British people want Brexit.
Your last paragraph is ‘Politics’, the Democrats will have a different view on what ‘strengthening the American economy’ means, just as the Democrats will have a different view on the role the American Military should play on the world stage; that’s politics. We have similar political debates in the UK e.g. conservatism (capitalism) vs Socialism vs Liberalism, plus the Greens (Environmental issues) etc. And in the UK, regardless to one’s politics, things are never ‘black and white’ e.g. more often than not there isn’t a ‘right or wrong’; it’s just different political views.
I suspect that in the USA, under normal circumstances, it’s not that much different. Except with Trump, he is a menace to the world; certainly in the view of the vast majority of the British People.Your comment: “Your biases and views are driven by what information you can gather from the sources you have and use, which will be different from my own.” Does come across as a bit condescending, although I’m sure it was not intended that way e.g. your comment gives no credit for my own personal experiences and personal knowledge from living here in the UK/Europe.
With regards to your 2nd & 3rd paragraph; you are dismissing and trivializing a factor, without even bothering to check the details, because it doesn’t sit well with your perceptions. The full policy making process by the UK Government, and similar policies made independently by the EU, is too complex a subject for this forum; but as an example, I shall focus on one aspect of it and summarise in as simplistic terms as I can:-
Following the financial crash of 2009, which forced the British Government in financially bailing out most British banks, to prevent them from going bankrupt, from 2010 the UK Conservative Government started to formulate a series of policies to mitigate against such events in the future.
To put it into simple terms, part of that mitigation was to split the British Banks Business Operations into different zones e.g. ‘high risk’, ‘low risk’, ‘Domestic’ and ‘Business’ etc., and to ‘Ring Fence’ Core Operations.
In simple terms, the practical outcome is that if a Banks ‘high risk’ section of its business collapses, the Bank can NOT draw upon funds (money) from its ‘core operations’ e.g. Domestic Accounts to bail itself out, because those core operations are ‘ring fenced’ e.g. as if they were a separate business.
It’s a lot more complex than I’ve explained, but ‘Ring Fencing’ is a tool that I’ve familiar with from my days in the civil service, and the British Government has also used ‘Ring Fencing’ in a number of other core areas in the British Economy, including the NHS & State Pensions e.g. even in the event of a deep recession in the UK, the NHS & State Pensions are secure by law, so that even a British Government can’t dip into the spending funds (budget) on the NHS or State Pensions to bail the economy out; in other words they are protected against Government cuts.
I’ve only scratched the surface, in my explanation, but even so, the UK’s current resilience against the failing economy in the USA due to the pandemic is real; and has nothing to do with China.
As regards your paragraph 5: You’ve chosen to ignore Trump’s Trade War with the EU, of which (as a European) I have been at the blunt end of; and which has nothing to do with China, other than the fact that Trump doesn’t like the USA being a net importer of goods and services from the EU, no more than he likes the USA being a net importer of goods and services from China e.g. a Nationalistic view rather than a Globalist view. Plus, from what I can see, your arguments in paragraph 5 are more about American politics than Global Trade e.g. Nationalism vs Globalism.
Your penultimate paragraph shows you ignorance (lack of understanding) of the Brexit issue; quite understandably, as you are American and not British.
FYI the majority of the British people did not, nor does not, want Brexit. Yes, a slim majority voted in favour of Brexit in the 2016 Referendum, many duped into voting for it by lies, deceit and propaganda. But within a year of that Referendum, and to this day, both opinion polls and elections have consistently demonstrated that Brexit is not the wishes of the majority; which is why (in spite efforts by Parliament) the Government (Boris) resisted calling a 2nd Referendum, because Boris knew that he would lose.
If you cite the fact that Boris (Conservative Government) won the General Election in November 2019 on a Brexit ticket as proof that the majority of the public want Brexit, then you are ignorant of the short comings of the ‘First Past the Post’ system in the UK.
In the 2019 General Election Boris (Pro Brexit Government) won 56.2% of the seats with just 43.6% of the votes. The other political parties who are pro Brexit accounts for a further 0.8% of the votes; and all of the opposition parties, who are pro-European, and stood on a pro European ticket, won 55.6% of the vote in the General Election.
So don’t tell me that the majority of the British people want Brexit.
Your last paragraph is ‘Politics’, the Democrats will have a different view on what ‘strengthening the American economy’ means, just as the Democrats will have a different view on the role the American Military should play on the world stage; that’s politics. We have similar political debates in the UK e.g. conservatism (capitalism) vs Socialism vs Liberalism, plus the Greens (Environmental issues) etc. And in the UK, regardless to one’s politics, things are never ‘black and white’ e.g. more often than not there isn’t a ‘right or wrong’; it’s just different political views.
I suspect that in the USA, under normal circumstances, it’s not that much different. Except with Trump, he is a menace to the world; certainly in the view of the vast majority of the British People.
Yep Sharlee, the UK was the hardest hit country in Europe by the pandemic; because the UK Government delayed shutting down the economy by 10 days, by which time the virus had rapidly spread throughout the UK. It’s the same mistake Italy, Spain and the USA made, with the same tragic result e.g. high death tolls.
The big difference is that the pandemic peaked in the UK on the 14th April with 943 deaths (7 day rolling average), and since the 14th April deaths have steady decreased week by week, and is still falling (currently averaging at 64 deaths per day).
Whereas deaths first peaked in the USA on the 21st April with 2,256 deaths (7 day rolling average), declined to a daily average of 520 deaths on the 5th July and is now heading for a 2nd peak (currently 1,100 deaths a day, and still rising); the USA being the ONLY major economy country in the world to be experiencing a 2nd peak.
That is the big difference; the UK has avoided a 2nd peak and now has the pandemic under control. Whereas the USA has not; so at the current rate of increase of the death rate in the USA, the total number of deaths in the USA from Covid-19 will pass the 230,595 mark (which you mentioned) before November.
The surges in infections in the UK and across Europe are in a different league to the pandemic in the USA. For example, the so called “2nd Wave” in Spain is no more than a ‘Flare up’ in Catalonia and Aragón Regions of Spain, similar to the flare-ups in Leicester and to a lesser extent Blackburn with Darwen and Oldham in England.
Boris put Leicester under ‘Local Lockdown’ and ‘Isolated’ it from the rest of the UK at the beginning of July because the ‘R’ Rate (Rate of Infection) briefly went above ‘1’. To put it into perspective, we are NOT talking about numbers on the scale being experienced in the USA. In Europe, the flare-ups in places of concern like Catalonia and Aragón Regions of Spain, and the city of Leicester, England, are small compared to the tens of thousands of new daily infections in the USA.
For example, in Catalonia, Spain, with a population of 7.5 million, they are currently recording around 1,000 new Covid-19 cases per day. Spain with a population of 47 million, as a whole, are recording 2,000 new Covid-19 cases a day for the whole country e.g. half of all new cases in Spain are confined to Catalonia (hot spot). Compare this to the USA with a population of 328 million (7 times the size of Spain), yet with over 66,000 new Covid-19 cases daily in the USA; 66,000 new cases a day in the USA is a LOT MORE than just 2,000 new cases a day in Spain.
The UK, with a population of 66 million (a 5th of the size of the USA) is currently recording an average of about 700 New Cases daily (for the whole of the UK), which has remained unchanged for the past month, in spite of the fact that on the 4th July UK largely re-opened its economy.
The City of Leicester (population of over 300,000) was put into lockdown by Boris at the beginning of July because 220 people had become infected in that city. 3.5 million people in parts of Northern England were put under tight ‘Social’ Restrictions yesterday because the rate of infection (‘R’ value) has risen to 1.1, even though the number of infected people in northern England is tiny compared to the number of infected people in most States across the USA.
The point is, whenever there is a flare-up in Europe (including the UK), however SMALL, the European Governments acts swiftly and hard to quell that flare-up; what Boris (British Prime Minister) calls the “Whack-a-Mole” Policy. Yet, the USA over 66,000 infections are being recorded, and very little is being done to stop the spread of the virus in the USA.
With regards to your last paragraph: I don’t pay much heed to highlights in the news media because the message can so easily be taken out of context; political spin etc. However, FYI; on the rare occasions that Trump speaks to the nation (Americans) about the pandemic I do watch the full Press Conference live; and the bullet points I made above are factual to what I’ve seen Trump say and what he’s tweeted (his own words).
For example:-
• It is fact that he has politicised mask wearing,
• Its fact that Trump encouraged his supporters not to sociality distance at his rally in Tulsa on the 20th June.
• It is fact that Trump promotes the use of hydroxychloroquine.
• It is fact that Trump suggested taking disinfectant internally.
• It is fact that Trump is more interested in opening up the economy rather than saving lives.
• It is fact that Trump is not keen on mass testing.
• It is fact that Trump is divisive." It is a fact that Trump suggested taking disinfectants internally."
Trump was posing questions to the physician that was on the sidelines and did not in any way suggest a method to ingest a disinfectant. He was pointing out a fact that the virus is killed by disinfectants and that if something could be developed to get a disinfectant to hit the virus in the body. Remdesvir the drug that is now being used to treat COVID patients is being studied in an inhalant form. So, the idea of producing a medication that could enter the lung was not so ridiculous.
"Gilead starts Phase I trial of inhaled version of Covid-19 drug remdesivir
The study is enrolling 60 healthy volunteers aged 18-45, but the company hopes it will form the basis of trials of the drug as an outpatient treatment for patients who do not require hospitalization. Remdesivir is currently administered via IV."
https://medcitynews.com/2020/07/gilead- … ivir/?rf=1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w&t=58sAbout Trump: the simple fact that information or misinformation on medication and medical treatment is staged in the political theatre of WH press conferences is already telling.
No other political leader on this planet (except Bolsonaro) does layman assertions in public on something, he/she doesn´t have any idea of.
Stick to this guy and keep this kind of layman leadership. This is why Trump is loved by Russia and China. He is so easy to manipulate, almost like a child.
And children play with children of same age and same stage of mental development. Reflects on his whole administration.
If some grown up persons get involved, the children get yealous (replace grown up persons with Dr. Fauci).
If a student is good in athletics and is member of the varsity club, this does not mean he is mature and fit for life (Replace athletics with Real Estate business - and fit for life with fit for political leadership).
I really don´t know what is the better election result for people in Europe. On one side a president in office with poor management record and questionable mental condition and on the other side a candidate with questionable corruption record and also questionable mental condition. How far has the US deteriorated be limited to this kind of choice? The people have deserved much better - and by the way, the world also.
Within a few months China´s GDP will pass the US GDP. Everything the administration is doing is hurting the American people, economy. It is also hurting other parts of the world but far less.
The fact that we discuss so much about the US pandemic situation is also telling. With reminiscence to the book and movie: "All quiet on the European (western) front".I can understand your dislike for Trump, he deeply insulted your leader pointing out that Germany does not choose to pay its commitments. And not sure why anyone at this point would hold on to any concept that Trump loves China and Russia. He has China on the ropes due to the partial trade deal he was negotiated, and Russia no president has put as many sanctions on Russia. That just a fact.
The US has done nothing but grow under Trump. For once our economy broke records in job growth. Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States has become the world’s number one producer of oil and maintained our position as the number one producer of natural gas.
American energy exports reached an all-time high last year, marking the first time in 67 years that our annual gross energy exports exceeded our gross energy imports.
Our military has been restored, our boarders secured to cut down on illegal activity that has been going on for decades.
We can only wait to see how our economy fares due to the pandemic. And many Ameican's depend on the stock market, which has treated us very well under Trump. Many Americans are not interested in being globalist any longer. Just hope to bring our jobs back, and keep our earnings hear in America.
Can only speak for me, but I have been very satisfied with Trump's job performance, his demeanor I don't care for. But, I don't really care about what other countries think my president. And I can well see how his policies would disturb many leaders. he is just not a politician, won't play the game, and has rocked their worlds.Actually Sharlee, Trump also frequently insulted our female Leader (when Theresa May was the UK’s Prime Minters); Trump’s attitude against women are well known.
Chris didn’t say that Trump loves China and Russia, he quite rightly pointed out that Russia loves Trump.
Trumps Sanctions on Russia doesn’t hurt Russia; they are not like the Sanctions Trump has on Iran.
The Sanctions Trump has on Russia are:-
1. Restrictions imposed on 690 Russian citizens (sanctions against designated Russian government officials) in protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
2. Restrictions imposed on 99 Russian citizens (sanctions against designated Russian government officials etc.) who have been identified in being involved with “Malicious Cyber Activities).
3. Restrictions imposed on 55 Russian citizens (sanctions against designated Russian government officials etc.) on Human Rights Abuse and Corruption in relation to the Sergei Magnitsky Act, and 9 others for other Human Right infringements.
4. Prohibition on export of many controlled goods and services to Russia, and currency exchange in response to Russia’s Chemical Weapon Attack in the UK in 2018.
5. USA Companies prohibited from signing defence contracts with Russia.
6. In 2018, Trump imposed financial sanctions against three Russian Banks for their support of the Syrian government.
7. In 2019, Trump imposed financial sanctions against a Russian bank for operating in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy.
8. In 2019 Trump imposes sanctions on any individual Russian citizen involved in the supply of gas from Russia to the EU via the Russian Nord 2 gas pipeline (being built from Russia to Germany).
As you can see from the list of American Sanctions on Russia (listed above), unlike Trump’s Trade war with China and Trump’s Trade war with the EU, Trump’s sanctions on Russia isn’t generally against Trade, it’s against Individuals; and therefore has little real impact on Russia.
However, the last point (point 8 above) is fowl play e.g. America trying to prevent Russia exporting its gas to the EU so that the EU is forced to buy its gas from the USA instead.
As regards Trump’s relationship with Putin, he’s praised Putin many a time, while at the same time making derogatory remarks in his tweets about the EU and EU Leaders, and derating Theresa May (British Prime Minister 2016-2019) on numerous occasions in his tweets....Trump, he deeply insulted your leader pointing out that Germany does not choose to pay its commitments...
Of course, doing political talks with insults imho is not what you should do. But may be my compass on diplomacy is wrong, may that is the new way of making friends. Forgot: The US doesn´t need friends.
The 2% defense spending issue: Some background:
Almost 20 years ago i was asked to join the CDU (conservative party in G.). At that time a lot was going on in Afghanistan and the credo of the party was: "German interest must be defended in the Hindu Kush". I turned down the proposal. G. military has nothing to do anywhere on this planet.
Having said this, G. has significant industrial firepower, but it is not used for war toys. The US industry in return is very much depending on production and sale of war material. So the 2% demand is simply to promote weapon sale for the US industry. Again this child in office is easy to disguise. As Arthur would put it: Another foul play.
More than 40 years ago i lived in Michigan. Most people i knew were working in the car industry (Bay City, Saginaw, Flint, some in Pontiac). I once was invited to visit the GM plant in Bay City. They manufactured carburators. Who needs carburators today? That was the steam engine of the 80ties. The plant is long closed.
If the current US administration promotes coal, intensified exploitation of natural resources, this is steam engine thinking, sticking to old industries and structures. Will possibly give you a good feeling for a short period of time, but on the long run this will only hurt.
...not interested in being globalist...
The US better be global, at least from the trading point of view. In today´s economic world you need 15% of your GDP in manufacturing to maintain
status quo. The US has 10%, means they need a trade deficit on products of some 5%. Now - if the US thinks, they can manufacture everything on their own, getting rid of the trade deficit and supposedly bringing back jobs, this will lead to an adjustment of the GDP to meet the 15% rule. Simple arithmetic. The US will need to decrease the GDP by some 30%. (actually that is what the pandemic already triggered). If the US isolates, this pandemic induced reduction will be permanent. Not a good idea, for nobody.
A last one on economic growth:
The US has high income inequality (Gini index at some 40%). You can certainly rejoice, if you belong to the top 5% of the income pyramid. Everyone else only lost in the recent years and decades. Not Trumps fault, but he accelerated this development.
How vulnerable the whole social structure is can be seen in this pandemic. People not going to the doctors, no health insurance, poverty makes people sick and easy prey for the virus.Chris is right when he says:-
“If the current US administration promotes coal, intensified exploitation of natural resources, this is steam engine thinking, sticking to old industries and structures. Will possibly give you a good feeling for a short period of time, but on the long run this will only hurt.”
While the USA has stayed stuck in the ‘dark ages’ (polluting the planet with fossil fuels) most countries across the world, including Europe and China, have been investing in the future; Research and Development into Renewable Energy Technologies. A mist opportunity for the USA in investments and jobs e.g. China has become a world leader in solar panel technology, Britain has become a world leader in off-shore wind power technology; Scotland has become a world leader in Research in wave and tidal power technologies. In fact many European counties, including Germany, Denmark and Norway are all now benefitting from wealth creation and job creation in Renewable Energy Technologies; and the USA is being left behind.
Aberdeen, Scotland's Hydrogen Strategy (Green, Clean Energy) - Leading the UK in H2: https://youtu.be/XBJAM1epr5cThe US uses little coal, we do have a small coal industry. In regards to using wind power.
China. China has an installed capacity of 221 GW and is the leader in wind energy, with over a third of the world's capacity. ...
United States. The US comes second with 96.4 GW of installed capacity.
2. United States
The US comes second with 96.4 GW of installed capacity. The country has six of the 10 largest onshore wind farms. These include the Alta Wind Energy Centre in California, the world’s second-largest onshore wind farm with a capacity of 1,548 MW.
Actually, the US American company, GE Wind, is the largest wind turbine manufacturer in the United States in terms of installation capacity at around 3,011 megawatts in 2018. With a total capacity of approximately 2,886 megawatts, the Danish manufacturer, Vestas, ranked second in that year.
Germany. ...
India. ...
Spain. ...
United Kingdom. ...
France. ...
Brazil.https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/worlds-top-10-countries-in-wind-energy-capacity/68465090
Solar power, the US once again at the top of the list for utilizing solar power. The US comes in third below China and Japan. Under Trump, we have come up on the list... https://news.energysage.com/where-is-solar-energy-used/
I have not the time to investigate who is ahead in Research and Development into Renewable Energy Technologies. However, the stats I have provides the fact's on what country utilizes renewable energy such as wind and solar power.
I might ask why is the EU, and other countries not higher on the list for actually using Solar and wind power?Shouldn´t we stick to pandemic response?
Sharlee, please don´t argue about windpower. You are way off in this topic. The US is far behind.
Firstly, electricity consumption is almost double per capita than the EU, at least G., that i can speak for.
Secondly: Installed windpower production capacity in relation to electricity consumption is roughly only 25% of Germany.
Thirdly: At least in Germany we have a huge surplus of electricity production during the daytime. There simply is little need to increase capacity on a large scale. The idea that the US is almost leading in adding windpower capacity only explains that the US is 10 to 15 years behind peer countries and tries to do a little catching up to get out of the "steam engine age".
I have much passion for the people in the US, you are friendly, open minded, generous. But then it strikes me every time how far off your assertions are on where to position the US in the world for certain topics. Just think about the pandemic response, the state of the US health care system.
Forget renewables, that is a looser topic, at least with current administration.
With full respect
ChrisYes, I would prefer to stay on topic. although it was not I but Nathanville that pursued a new subject. I was responding to this comment ---
"If the current US administration promotes coal, intensified exploitation of natural resources, this is steam engine thinking, sticking to old industries and structures. Will possibly give you a good feeling for a short period of time, but in the long run this will only hurt.”
"While the USA has stayed stuck in the ‘dark ages’ (polluting the planet with fossil fuels) most countries across the world, including Europe and China, have been investing in the future; Research and Development into Renewable Energy Technologies. "
In regards to windpower, The US comes second with 96.4 GW of installed capacity. The country has six of the 10 largest onshore wind farms in the world... I have added the reference to where I came about my information on the US being the number two users of wind power. My previous comment offers a reference in regard to US uses of solar power. I do realize the US imports its panels from Asia, but we certainly are utilizing solar power here in the US coming in at third country that uses the most solar power, and usages of wind power we come in second to other nations.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes … y/68465090
Do you feel the references are off in regard to the stats it offers? The increase in usage of wind and solar power happened under President Trump. That's just a fact. We have never realized such clean air. The US currently has one of the lowest death rates attributed to air pollution.
https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/ … ricity-useSharlee, the numbers you mention are only reflecting of what i wrote: You have to look at comparable and relative numbers for energy consumption and power generation. The US consumes roughly 8 times as much electricity as G. does. But the Wind Power capacity is only double US over G. To me that is 2/8 = 25%. If i take figures from your reference, may be even a little less.
We could discuss pollution. Not really worth while. Just squeeze information out of this website: https://www.iea.org/countries
In this site i took a closer look at where G. was with said 25% wind renewables compared to most recent figures: 2007 (more than 11 years ago).
It is always necessary to work with normalized numbers. So back to the pandemic: What does it help if the US tests 500-800.000 per day if you have a potential spreader community of 2 million plus active cases? That is 1/4 test per active case and day. Italy and Germany are each testing some 50.000 per day, but we only have some 10.000 active cases respectively. That is 5 tests per active case. And now we go relative :-) in Europe we have 20 times more testing per potential spreader than in the US. This is the real difference and the real issue for having no control over the virus in the US. Not to mention the analysis time lag. I hope that gets better.
Sharlee/Chris, yes it’s me that went off target (in response to comments made by all). And Sharlee, your response is very admirable; it’s good to hear an American speak positively about Renewable Energy, and refreshing to hear an American not berate China.
The figures you quote for USA on-shore wind farms are admirable, but to put it into perspective you need to take the size of the nations into account e.g. China’s population 1.4 billion, USA population 328 million, and UK population 66 million etc. China, with such a huge population installs on average 2 wind turbines an hour; the UK with such a small population (even in comparison with the USA) installs on average 1 new wind turbine a day. How many wind turbines is the USA installing each day?
The most important factor isn’t how many wind turbines etc., a country has installed, but the percentage of their total energy that comes from Renewable Energy, and the rate at which that percentage is increasing.
Also, Research & Development is important to a country because that’s eventually equates to jobs and wealth for a nation in respect to generated ‘Exports’; think of the success of the USA during the 3rd Industrial Revolution in the 1990’s e.g. Silicon Valley California, USA.
To put the figures you quote into perspective:-
USA Energy Mix in 2016:- Fossil fuels made up 81% of the United States' total energy consumption in 2016. (Source EIA)
USA Energy Mix in 2019:- Fossil fuels made up 80% of the United States' total energy consumption in 2019. (Source EIA)
In 2019 only 11% of the USA Energy was from Renewable Energy, 80% came from fossil fuels, as follows:-
• 37% from Oil
• 32% from Gas
• 11% from coal
In contrast, in the UK in 2019 36.9% of our energy came from Renewables, and only 45.7% came from fossil fuels, as follows:-
• 40.9% from Gas
• 2.7% from Oil
• 2.1% from Coal
FYI: Separate from, but complementary to, the Paris Agreement signed by 196 counties in 2016 (including the USA) is the EU Directive of 2009.
The EU Directive of 2009 set out an ambitious target for the EU’s energy to come from Renewable Energy as follows:-
• 20% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2020.
• 30% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2030, and
• 80% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2050.
The first target was met and exceeded by most EU countries by 2017, so the EU’s Directive was revised as follows:-
• 30% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2020.
• 50% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2030, and
• 100% of total energy from Renewable Energy by 2050.
In contrast, although the Paris Agreement is less stringent than the EU Directive, the USA withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017 because even now only 11% of the USA’s energy comes from Renewable; far below their targets set in the Paris Agreement.
When Trump came to power he described ‘Climate Change’ as a ‘Chinese Hoax’, and vowed to support the coal mining industry.
Britain goes 2 months without burning coal for power (2020): https://youtu.be/pM9nQoRqpMU
Below: UK Energy Mix
Thank you for the pertinent information. It further clarifies the subject.
I don’t think you should call biomass renewable energy as it’s impossible to grow wood as fast as it is burnt up. Biomass is a fake green energy source.
That is a valid point peterstreep, where the biomass is wood that’s not waste, and isn’t from a renewable source.
Certainly in the USA, looking at the above chart, 20% of their 11% Renewable Energy is from wood biomass; and I don’t know how strict their Regulations are, and therefore how much of that wood is genuinely from Renewable Sources?
In the UK 8.5% of our ‘total’ energy source comes from ‘biomass & waste’; very little of which is actually wood, the vast bulk is sewage and ‘domestic kitchen waste’.
The UK Regulations these days on the purchase of wood are very tight; to the point that ‘all’ wood now sold in the UK has to be ‘Certified’ as coming from a ‘reliable’ ‘renewable source’, as recognised by the UK Government; which means that in the UK oak has in recent years become a scarce and expensive wood.
The main UK supplier of wood is the ‘Forestry Commission’; the Forestry Commission is a UK ‘Independent’ Government Department e.g. answerable to Parliament, but not the Government.
The Forestry Commission grows wood sustainably in Britain e.g. for every tree they cut down for commercial use, they plant three new trees to replace it. So consequently, back in 1919, when the Forestry Commission was established, only 5% of the UK was forest; but today, thanks to the efforts of the Forestry Commission 12.9% of the UK is now forest.
The Forestry Commission doesn’t certify its own wood as being from a Renewable Source, that is done by the UK Woodland Assurance Standard (UKWAS) as an independent assessment and auditor, and on the strength of UKWAS UK wood is then certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and the ‘Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification’(PEFC).
Back to the biomass in the UK, which now makes up 8.5% of our total energy, most of that biomass energy in the UK is generated from sewage and ‘domestic kitchen waste’, and demonstrated in the videos below:-
Sewage waste in Bristol used to make green gas: https://youtu.be/PUpvAfWI_GA
Bristol biomethane gas (made from sewage and kitchen food waste) powers Bristol buses: https://youtu.be/QV4VEprPfos
Similar schemes, to those in Bristol (above), are now common throughout the UK.As far as i know, renewable energy including biomass is per definition "renewable". Hard biomass = wood regrows, is not depleted and thus renewable.
In G. some 80% of biomass electricity is from biogas, the rest is wood and to a retreating fraction rapeseed oil, liquid biomass. Most electricity from wood is produced in local powerplants that combine heating and electricity generation.
I add a chart on the weekly generation of electricity in G. You can easily identify the daytime peaks of solar energy and the windy period in the first half of the week.
Biomass generation is very steady, due to the nature of biogas production. Same with baseload nuclear power (the rest of what we have).
Currently not a good situation with way too much electricity available during the daytime and no real storage capacity (blue). The future will be to create storage.
The problem with biomass is that a tree does not grow as quickly as it is burnt. Sounds simple but that's the bottom of it. Biomass is not a clean solution.
After seeing the documentary by Michael Moore: Planet of the Humans. I started to rethink about Biomass, as I thought it was green energy too. But it is not.
Planet of the Humans
Sewage waste in Bristol used to make green gas:....
It almost broke my heart to see the ignorance of the tv presenter. Frying bacon on biomass... Not understanding that the meat industry is one of the biggest climate change problems. Talking about methane production...
Ignorance kills...The meat industry is why we are burning down rainforests across the globe at impossible rates, for viable grazing land.
The meat industry is why bacteria is becoming immune to antibiotics, 80% of the world's antibiotics is used by the meat industry.
The billions of animals raised for slaughter in industrialized meat efforts do more harm to the atmosphere than all the world's automobiles combined.
The antibiotics, pesticides, preservatives, etc. found in our meats (especially those served by fast food restaurants) have more to do with Heart Disease, weight gain, and the general declining health of Americans than any other single factor in America.
I also completely agree with you Ken; I've been a vegetarian all my adult life.
Peterstreep, Michael Moore is a filmmaker, author and activist, not a scientist. The film ‘Planet of the Humans’ by Michael Moore received criticism from a number of climate change experts and activists who disputed its claims and the accuracy of figures cited in the film. And having watched the video (your link to the ‘Planet of the Humans’) I concur with the quote made in Wikipedia that the film could play into the hands of the fossil fuel industry.
Having watched the section about McNeil Biomass Power Plant in Burlington, Vermont, USA burning wood for energy, at 52:30 into the film, I can’t comment on whether the Company in question was acting unscrupulously, or whether they were misrepresented by the filmmaker.
However, I can say that the filmmaker (Michael Moore) does grossly misrepresent the subject of using wood as biomass, as part of a green, renewable energy source.
FYI: Biomass power is electricity generated using plant-based fuels. This can include wood pellets and wood chips, bioenergy crops or even agricultural and domestic waste. It's renewable because we're continually growing plants and trees for a variety of purposes, but these processes often create residues that aren't needed. Such residues can be used as a low-carbon, renewable alternative to displace fossil fuels.
Wood pellets are a biomass fuel made from compressed sawdust, produced as a waste product from sawmills.
This video documentary below, where Tony Juniper explores the Drax wood pellet supply chain, puts it into perspective
The Biomass Sustainability Story: https://youtu.be/Z8_Y3fpqlTI
38% of the forests in southern USA are working forest (Sustainable forests), and in spite of large areas being cleared for the wood industry each year, those forests have more than doubled in size over the past 60 years, because more trees are constantly being planted to replace those harvested (Sustainability).
It’s the same principle as growing carrots, but on a longer time scale e.g. it takes a whole season to grow carrots in a field, which is then harvested in days, for human consumption.
For trees that takes 30 years to grow you have 30 fields, each one a year older than the previous, so that when you harvest one field (area), you replant it with new trees for harvesting again in 30 years’ time (Sustainability).
The Forestry Commission (a Government Department) have been growing trees for commercial use in the UK since 1919, and in spite that trees are grown to be harvested in the UK; the forests have grown from being just 5% of the UK landmass a 100 years ago to 12.9% of the UK landmass today.Peterstreep, I am in full agreement with you concerning meat, and the negative effect it has on Climate Change. And I also happen to be a vegetarian, have been all my adult life, so I do have a clear conscience in that respect.
As regards methane: I assume your concern is based on the fact that methane is 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide; which is a legitimate concern, especially when cows produce huge quantities of it as part of their natural digestive process. On the positive side, methane dissipates from the atmosphere relatively quickly e.g. within 25 years, so it’s not cumulative. Whereas Carbon Dioxide can stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years, so it’s effect is cumulative.
However, as a fossil fuel, methane is the cleanest of all fossil fuels (twice as clean as oil) because release of methane into the atmosphere during mining is minimised, and release of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere during use is minimal.
Creating methane through anaerobic processes, such as turning Bristol sewage and Bristol domestic kitchen food waste into methane is twice as clean as using fossil fuel methane because it eliminates the escape of any methane into the atmosphere during the mining process.Nathan, I think the sewage waste process is great. it is just the complete incompetence of the presenter that left me gobsmacked. It’s like explaining the dangers of asbestos, and better to avoid drilling in it, while smoking.
To go back to the topic.
I think there is a parallel here. The anti science attitude that’s created for years in the media. Now shows its effects. That’s why I said. Ignorance kills. And definitely not bliss.
Chris, yep, as you say “….renewable energy including biomass is per definition "renewable". Hard biomass = wood regrows, is not depleted and thus renewable.”
Yes, like Germany, a lot of our biomass electricity in the UK is from biogas, and the rest of the biomass in the UK is similar to how you describe it for Germany.
In the UK we have a reverse situation to Germany in that almost half of our ‘variable’ Renewable Energy comes from wind (which blows 24/7) not solar; so it’s in the early hours of morning (not during the day), when demand for electricity is low, that we have our surplus of electricity. The strength of the wind is unpredictable, but around the coasts of Britain the wind never ceases to blow e.g. the ‘Westerly Winds’ generated by the Gulf Stream.
Our current Renewable Energy Mix in the UK is:-
• Wind = 20% of our total electricity
• Biomass = 8.5% of our total electricity
• Solar = 6% of our total electricity
• Hydro = 2.4% of our total electricity
With respect to your concerns of fluctuations in supply & demand during the 24 hourly cycles, and the unpredictability of wind and solar power; there is a lot of good news on the horizon, some of which is being realised now. For example:-
1. The pan-European ‘electricity grid’; which has been in operation for a number of years and is still being expanded e.g. the Norway link to the UK, France, Belgium etc. to take advantage of the hydro power in Norway to provide power to Northern European countries when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine.
In this respect England regularly imports surplus Renewable Energy Electricity from Scotland, and exports some of it to Ireland. And England and France regularly import and export electricity between each other e.g. the UK exporting surplus wind power to France, which it can pass onto Germany if/when needed. And likewise, Spain (who has an abundance of solar energy) can export some of that to the Northern European Countries when required.
2. Scotland is at an advanced stage in ‘Research and Development’ of using ‘green energy’ hydrogen as a means for mass storage of surplus ‘Renewable Energy’ Electricity.
Scotland’s goal is to develop the technology on a commercial scale (which they are beginning to do) to convert surplus ‘Renewable Energy’ Electricity into hydrogen for storage (a form a battery), and then convert the hydrogen back to green electricity when needed.
In this respect, Scotland not only wants to use hydrogen to store surplus electricity as large scale batteries for the ‘national electricity grid’, but also to use the hydrogen to run their ferries, and for transport e.g. busses.
These videos below explain in a little more detail:-
World's first hydrogen-powered seagoing ferries (in Scotland, generated from surplus renewable energy): https://youtu.be/jsbObSYqVao
Aberdeen, Scotland's Hydrogen Strategy (converting surplus Renewable Energy Electricity into hydrogen) - Leading the UK in H2: https://youtu.be/XBJAM1epr5c
Hydrogen - A Promising Storage for Wind Power https://youtu.be/c2yraQkMsJs
European Super grid (Renewable Energy Electricity): It’s an old video, but most of what it covers has now become a reality. https://youtu.be/SQWzyNVhpVU
Dutch to build artificial island on Dogger Bank off coast of Britain by 2027, to supply renewable energy to the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, Denmark and Norway: https://youtu.be/lBnWEK9IUn4Arthur, interesting and informative survey you put together.
On one hand i would say the UK is lucky not to have too much Solar Electricity, on the other hand i personally benefit from the German tax break program on solar power and harvest and sell electricity on a professional scale.
In G. we have a law that actually forces the grid to buy solar power at a guaranteed price for a 20 year period. This enables good business cases and made installation of solar power boom in the past decade.
By today you can see the result (as showed in the week chart).
The guaranteed purchase price per kWh is lower than what private consumers have to pay. Some (or many) private households put small (3-5 kWp) systems on their house roofs for self supply and their own little business cases, only excess supply being sold to the grid. So in reality the electricity generation by solar power is even bigger than suggested in the chart. The charts only show what ends up in the grid.
This market distortion leads to some strange situations. In 2019 for some 211 hours (out of 8760 hours/year) the trading price for electricity was negative. So at the Leipzig energy exchange, consumers were even payed to take energy, weird.
In 2020 this escalates further. On Febr. 16, 2020 a moderate storm went through G. This caused so much windpower to be generated that for 23 out of 24 hours the price was negative.
I add a chart from same source as before that illustrates this dilemma.
On 2020.07.28 the price (blue line) went negative for a short period of time. https://www.energy-charts.de/price.htm? … mp;week=31
Thanks for that clarification peterstreep; yes there is certainly too much anti-science attitude in the American media; albeit you don’t see that in the British news media, who are very supportive of science and technology.
albeit you don’t see that in the British news media....
The Sun, Daily Mail. etc. Sorry I don't think so. The reason why there is a Brexit, is because of giving the people wrong information. (including BBC)
The other thing you said by comparing carrots with trees doesn't add up.
As the energy you get from 1 tree does not get you through the 30 years you need to grow a tree....Planting wood for pallets, is an impossible task.
Biomass from kitchen waste and poo, now that's a far better idea. And I fully support the Bristol Biomass.
It's not so much the methane of the meat industry. But all the soy that needs to be grown, and the water that the animals need. (drinking, cleaning the stables etc.) The cow shit etc. Which makes the meat and milk industry one of the biggest polluters on earth. (not even touching the subject of animal abuse.). That's for me a bigger reason to be a vegetarian, to be honest. The Amazone that's flattened hour by hour. The COVID problem we are in can be traced to the meat and livestock market.
If we want to fight climate change, we have to stop eating meat for a start.
Great info by the way.
Michael Moore is a filmmaker, but as he said in an interview. He has to be incredibly careful and everything he said is triple checked by independent fact-checkers before the film is released. As everybody wants to sue him if possible.Peter, Arthur,
can´t say much about the Amazone or other places on this planet. I can´t say much about the meat industry, as i enjoy a good steak.
But certainly i can argue about the useage of solid biomass (wood) in general and in Germany as an example. First of all in G. we have some 1000 trees per citizen. The average yearly regrowth is some 12 fixed meters per hectar. We get a regrowth of some 136 million fixed meters / year.
If all that was to burned for heating and/or electricity generation we would get the equivalent of 300 Gigawatthours. Including thermodynamics efficiency for Electricity generation this would be enough to get German electricity consumption through one whole week of the year. Not much, but thank God we have IKEA, so most of that is not going to be burnt :-)
My point is: wood is renewable, at least in G. Even old furniture is renewable, being either chopped to serve as chipboards or burnt in a furnice. You will see very little wood rotting in a garbage dump.
I checked my last year natural gas bill (household energy consumption for heating/hot water): Some 15.000 kWh. It would take me the trees of 6000 sqm of forest to get the equivalent. With the total forest area in G. and same consumption for all households the regrowth would last for 18 million housholds. Just think of the middle ages when wood was almost the only source for energy.
In the UK early industrialisation and extensive use for shipbuilding depleted a lot of forest area some 300 years ago. In Brazil there probably are issues, but not so in our times in developed countries that comprehend what renewable means.
Thanks for your feedback Chris.
Yes we had the same law in the UK to incentivise the take up of solar panels; introduced in 2009. The only main difference, from what you describe, is that in the UK the Energy Suppliers had a legal obligation to buy your surplus electricity at a guaranteed price (above market value) for 25 years.
That scheme ended (for new installations) in March last year (2019), and hasn’t been replaced yet. But a new scheme, less generous, is being launched on the 1st January next year (2021). Under the new scheme the Energy Suppliers will still have a legal obligation to buy your surplus electricity, except this time it will be below market value e.g. to give the suppliers some profit while also bringing down the cost of electricity for everyone, while those with solar panels (under the new contract) will get some money back for the surplus energy they produce.
In spite of the generous incentives to install solar panels in the UK between 2009 and 2019 the take up by the British people for solar panels has been quite low; not because of the lack of interest, but because of the cost of the initial outlay.
However, the efficiency of the solar panels is improving year on year, and the price is slowly dropping year by year; thanks mainly due to the R&D by China, who have an invested interest in developing the technology for their own programme to transition from fossil fuels to Renewable Energy as rapidly as physically possible.
Solar panels has been on my wish list for a number of years, but until now my prime objective has been spending our money on renovating our house; just finished redoing our home-office, so the only room left to do in our home now is just our bedroom, which I hope to do next year.
Once we’ve finished doing the major makeover of our bedroom, then my top priority will be to save up for solar panels; which shouldn’t take long e.g. about a year to raise the money. Albeit, by that time there maybe Government Grants available to help, as the current Conservative Government is legally committed to being ‘net carbon neutral’ by 2050, and Grants to home owners is something high on their agenda as a means to help the UK meet its legal requirement on time!
What I would love ultimately is a Powerwall Battery e.g. to store the surplus electricity from your solar panels during the day, and use it in the evening instead of buying electricity from the grid. However, at the moment the Powerwall batteries are far too expensive; but once the price is more affordable, and more economical, such batteries in the home are going to be a ‘game changer’.
Tesla Powerwall | Fully Charged https://youtu.be/jB6jyy0Joq8
My favourite Battery (stored energy) on the National Grid in the UK is ‘Electric Mountain’ in Wales; it’s somewhere which we made a point of visiting (as a day trip) when we were on a week’s holiday in North Wales last year.
Electric Mountain, Wales: https://youtu.be/d-Gbs_kXK8QPeterstreep. My reference was ‘specific’ to the British news media being very supportive of ‘science and technology’; when it comes to politics e.g. Brexit, then that is a different matter.
Thanks Chris, for your feedback, what you describe for Germany is very similar in Britain e.g. very little wood (at any stage in its cycle) gets wasted, and the UK Government is very strict on ensuring any wood sold in the UK is from verified ‘Renewable Sources’ etc.
The UK’s Forestry Commission (a Government Department) is a prime example of how forests can be managed sustainably for commercial use. When the Forestry Commission was created in 1919 only 5% of the UK was forests; now 12.9% of the UK is forests, and as part of the UK achieving its legal commitment to being Carbon Neutral by 2050 that percentage is set to increase to 17% by 2050 (Government Target, based on Scientific Advice). To meet that target requires planting 50 million new trees in the UK per year for the next 30 years; this equates to a million new hectares of woodland cover, and about 1.5 billion trees.
If the carrot analogy isn’t to your taste, then in simple terms: for a tree that takes 30 years to grow, for ever million trees you harvest each year, you need to replant a million trees a year for 30 years for the woodland to be sustainable e.g. your woodland always has 30 million trees in growth (Sustainable/Renewable).
Consider Christmas trees. The UK’s Forestry Commission grows 100,000 Christmas Trees each year; sustainably. And just after Christmas you just leave your Christmas tree outside your house and the Local Authorities (Local Government) will take it away for free, for recycling the wood.
https://www.forestryengland.uk/real-christmas-trees
I think you miss the point about wood pellets. If you watched the video I posted, rather than the video by Michael Moore, you will see that in the UK at least, and I suspect for the EU in general, that wood pellets for biomass energy does not come from trees that are planted specifically for biomass, but comes from wood waste e.g. sawdust, offcuts etc. from the sawmills; a waste product that would otherwise go to waste. I can only speak for the UK (but I suspect it’s similar for the EU), in the UK the Government is very strict in verifying that all woodchip pellets for biomass energy is from ‘Renewable and sustainable Sources’.
The link below is the comprehensive ‘Case Study’ commissioned by the UK Labour Government in 2006, and carried out by the UK’s Forestry Commission; which forms the basis of the UK’s Conservative Government’s strategy and policy to use wood as biomass sustainably in the UK as a ‘Renewable Energy’ to help combat Climate Change.
https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/docum … rategy.pdf
NB: The above link is a pdf file which you have to download to read.
I did watch the Michael Moore video you posted; and with my scientific interest, knowledge and background, including my qualifications and Government work experience (profession), in my view there was a lot of misinformation in the documentary.
However, I do totally agree with everything you say about the meat industry; and as I said previously, I am a vegetarian, so I am doing my part in that respect.
A video that might be of interest to Chris: Wood Recycling in Bristol (where I live). There are also several commercial ‘reclamation yards’ in Bristol, where I sometimes buy recycled wood from, but this video refers to a thriving ‘non-profit’ organisation, which are quite common in the UK: -
Trash into Treasure with Bristol Wood Recycling! https://youtu.be/3Dd2qymuSIU..for a tree that takes 30 years to grow, for ever million trees you harvest each year, you need to replant a million trees a year for 30 years for the woodland to be sustainable e.g. your woodland always has 30 million trees in growth ..
I'm a sceptic about this Nathan. Simply because a tree does not grow as fast as it is burnt. So in the time, you wait 30 years, you need more trees..It never ever adds up. And we are not even taking into account that the energy needs will grow!!
In the Netherlands, a lot of the Biomass comes from the US in the form of pallets, shipped by diesel engine boats. According to the EU biomass is green energy as it is CO2 neutral. This is not true. I think it is not a bad idea to look critically at the rules and regulations according to biomass set by the EU.
I'm a big supporter of the EU, but in the end, they are also playing politics and are sensitive of lobbyist of huge companies.
If biomass is made out of wood that's already used and other waste, great. But it does not make sense to chop trees. You need to regrow an Amazone for it to supply the energy hungry humans. There are better ways. Planting trees is great and the best thing you can do to stop climate change, besides stop eating meat. But let them be. To see everything as a product, as something to be used is deadly in my opinion. I live on the countryside and see that all farmers see the olive and almond trees pure as things that produce. But I think they are great for giving shadow on a hot day too!!!Please check some information on wood for yourself:
https://www.wooddays.eu/en/woodclimate/
...
Every year, 776 million cubic metres of wood is grown in Europe. But only 490 million cubic metres is harvested each year. The remaining 286 million cubic metres remains in forests and thereby increases the total European forest area every single year. In Austria, less than a third of the annual wood growth would suffice to construct all of the buildings erected in one year using wood....
An older study from the Netherlands:
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio … on_balance
From my personal experience: Some years ago i had the chance to buy a forest. Found out that harvesting wood on a professional level holds no good business case. Simply too much wood available.Thank you Chris and Nathan. You guys give me hope. I will save the url’s and check them later on as I’ve got an incredibly busy week with harvesting the carob from our carobtrees.
Its not a bad idee to check properly how the woods are doing in Europe.
Its my gut feeling that things don’t add up. But a gut feeling is not the truth.
That said, I planted some trees myself to stop the erosion of the mountains in my area last year. As I’m a member of the ecologist group here in the province of Valencia. Hope your forest is still going strong.
Thanks for your feedback peterstreep.
I can understand your scepticism; and I would be if it wasn’t for the fact that I was a Government Employee (civil servant) all my working life; working in the Department of Environment and Transport.
It’s for this reason that I know how ‘Independent’ Government Departments like the UK’s Forestry Commission work. In the UK most Government Departments are Ministerial e.g. each one is assigned a Government Minister (an elected MP promoted to the Cabinet Office by the Prime Minster); these Departments, which includes Environment and Transport, Trade & Industry etc., are there to follow Government Policy.
However, for Government Departments which are deemed to be too sensitive to be under direct Government control are kept at arm’s length from the Government e.g. answerable only to Parliament. In the UK such Independent Government Departments include the Forestry Commission, Electoral Commission and the ‘Government Watch Dogs’ covering News Media on British TV etc.
I can’t speak for the EU as a whole (although I do have great admiration for it); but speaking for the UK specifically, I’ve seen and read the UK’s Forestry’s Commission Reports on using wood biomass in the UK as a sustainable Renewable Energy. So when it comes to the UK, I know that everything (as reported by the UK’s Forestry Commission to the UK Government) is ‘above board’ (above politics, and above corruption by commercial interests). So it’s on that basis that I can only assume that what applies in the UK probably holds true for the EU too e.g. it’s not as if we’re in the USA where Industry do control the politicians.
I do understand your sincere concerns that the sheer volume of wood that needs to be burnt is mindboggling, and sounds incredulous. But for the supplies chains I’ve followed through, the data published by the UK’s Forestry Commission, and other ‘reliable sources of information’ do tally; and does take into account the ‘carbon footprints’; which is something the UK Government is hot on these days, and takes very seriously.
I understand your point about the olive trees, which is perfectly valid. But as well as growing trees for crops, or carbon capture etc., trees can also be grown commercially and sustainably as a crop. Another example in the UK is oak. Oak trees are slow growing, but they are native to the UK, and the Forestry Commission do regularly plant new oak trees to replenish the old stock, which are harvested for their wood. Albeit, because oak grows slowly, to be sustainable, British oak is expensive to buy (supply and demand), and for every oak tree harvested for its wood three new trees are planted by the Forestry Commission to maintain the stock (Renewable Source).
In fact only wood from Renewable Sources can be sold in the UK. Something the UK Government is very hot on e.g. it is now illegal to buy wood in the UK that has come from the Amazon, because (currently) that is not a ‘renewable source’.
Some short videos that adds a bit of depth to my above comments:-
Celebrating 100 years of forestry in the UK 1919-2019 https://youtu.be/zP_hDDUeCg4
Managing the public forests of England https://youtu.be/DxAT1ziOhp4
Farming to forestry in the UK https://youtu.be/yqqVnzZYS80
UK Forestry and Wood: Economy https://youtu.be/_v3MkCFRcrsA simplistic view of managing a forest sustainably for trees that takes 30 years to grow e.g. pine, where 1 million a year is harvested (for whatever reason):-
In that forest, for it to be renewable you will have:-
• 1 million trees that’s’ just planted to replace those that are 30 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 1 year old.
• 1 million trees that is 2 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 3 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 4 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 5 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 6 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 7 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 8 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 9 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 10 year old.
• 1 million trees that is 11 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 12 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 13 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 14 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 15 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 16 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 17 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 18 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 19 year old.
• 1 million trees that is 20 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 21 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 22 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 23 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 24 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 25 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 26 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 27 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 28 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 29 years old.
• 1 million trees that is 30 years old e.g. ready for harvesting.
So it is simple mathematics to work out what is sustainable. And in the UK only wood from sustainable forests are legal.Thanks for the info Chris. What you describe for Europe as a whole is consistent with the UK e.g. the UK is planting millions of new trees each year; 2 million new trees a year in Northern England alone, as part of the UK’s new Northern Forest Project launched in 2018. And as you said, the new trees being planted (in the UK) dwarfs the number of trees harvested each year for commercial use.
The new Northern Forest being created in northern England (started in 2018) is an ambitious project to plant 50 million trees over 25 years to create a forest across northern England that will stretch from coast to coast (the West coast to the East coast of northern England).
Scotland has a number of similar reforesting project underway, of which some have been going for decades.
Britain's Next Megaproject: Northern Forest A Coast-to-Coast Forest https://youtu.be/n6to16hG9Yg
Reforesting Scotland / Planting Trees / Rewilding Britain / Trees for life https://youtu.be/QBHA8ZqhI_kThanks for the links, I copied and pasted them. Will check them out later.
Great to hear some positive voices.
Thanks for your feedback peterstreep. Another area of ‘Environmental’ Achievement in the UK which may give you further encouragement is the UK’s Green Belt Policy; first made law by the Labour (Socialist) Government in 1947, but which has been supported by ALL political Parties ever since.
The Green belt is a ‘ring’ of protected countryside that surrounds all the cities and towns in England to prevent ‘urban sprawl’.
The effect of the ‘Green Belt’ is very striking for example on the outskirts of cities like Bristol (where I live) e.g. a clear line between urban and rural; something you don’t often see in the USA.
In this video below, featuring the iconic Clifton ‘Suspension Bridge’ built on the edge of the city over 150 years ago, and the famous Bristol ‘floating’ Harbour, gives some good video footage of the demarcation between the urban city and the surrounding countryside protected by the Government’s Green Belt Policy.
Bristol city sits in a basin, surrounded by hills (which you might just make out in the distance in the video); giving Bristol its own unique ‘micro climate’. The long term Government Policy is to reforest the hills surrounding the city; but in the video footage you will also note the high number of trees that are actually planted within the city itself.
Bristol's Clifton Suspension Bridge & Floating Harbour by drone: https://youtu.be/kgdT2J-mCy0
Also, as you may know, Bristol won the ‘European Green Capital’ Award in 2015, as a showcase of what can be achieved e.g. during the year when Bristol was the ‘Green Capital of Europe’ Bristol school children planted over 10,000 trees within the city, in 2015, as part of the ‘Green Capital’ initiative.
Bristol European Green Capital 2015: A Green Tour of a Green City: https://youtu.be/6rfRqTOOx3o
So yes, there is hope for a ‘Green’ Future (at least across Europe).
Sharlee, all major economies have been in economic growth since their recovery from the financial crisis of 2008. Prior to the pandemic the USA was the wealthiest country in the world, with the EU in close 2nd place, and the UK in 6th place.
Since the start of the pandemic in March, the situation for the USA looks bleak:-
Unemployment in May 2020 (latest full figures):
• UK = 3.9% (2.8 million people).
• EU Average = 7.4%
• USA = 13.3% (36 million).
OIL & GAS
Being a world leader in oil and gas is nothing to be proud of when the world is facing a calamity from ‘Climate Change’ (Global Warming) because countries like the USA continue to peddle fossil fuels rather than make every effort to switch from fossil fuels to Renewable Energy.
Scotland and England are sitting on rich reserves of untapped coal, oil and gas; but we are leaving them in the ground because of the damage there use does to the Environment.
• In the 1980’s Margaret Thatcher (UK Conservative Prime Minster) closed the coal mines for political reasons. Since then the UK has gone from 67% of our energy coming from coal to just over 1% now; and our last coal fired powered station closes in 2025.
• The SNP (Socialist) Government in Scotland has banned fracking Scotland.
• The UK Conservative Government has imposed strict Regulations on Fracking, which makes fracking in England uncommercial.
• Under UK Conservative Government laws, all fossil fuel cars will be banned in the UK from 2035.
• By Law, under UK Conservative Government, the UK will have to be 100% carbon neutral by 2050 e.g. Renewable Energy instead of Fossil Fuels; in that respect more than 50% of the UK’s energy already comes from Renewable Energy.
• Scotland is already virtually self-sufficient in Renewable Energy and frequently exports about 30% of its Renewable Energy (surplus) to England.
• The UK, who has been installing on average one off-shore wind turbine per day since 2012 is a world leader on off-shore wind turbine technology, creating jobs and wealth in a ‘growth industry’.
UK Conservative Government Turns it Back on Fossil Fuels: https://youtu.be/hj7v8e1uLyE
World's largest offshore wind farm in UK: https://youtu.be/TgRPjCQn7Tw
Inhalers used by asthma patients does exactly that e.g. Inhalers are designed to deliver medication directly to the lungs through a person's own breathing. But the medication used in inhalers is not harmful if taken internally; disinfectant is, and most people with any common sense know that.
There was a spike of calls to Poison Centres across America following Trump’s suggestion of using disinfectant internally; and Disinfectant makers were quick to denounce such an idea.The handling of Covid19 is the freakest thing I have ever experienced in my lifetime as a senior. It's probably the worst handling of anything since the great depression. At least world war two keept working as poverty is the greatest killer.
In the USA, yes, where death tolls are raging high e.g. over a 1,000 deaths a day from Covid-19, the situation is being handled badly; along with other countries like Brazil, whose Government is ignoring the crisis, just like Trump is.
But many countries across the world, even those like the UK, Spain and Italy (who were slow in doing a lockdown) have handled the crisis quite well since; and now have death tolls down to just a trickle e.g. just 12 a day in the UK now, and still falling by the week; in spite of the fact that the UK re-opened its economy (excepting for nightclubs) on the 4th July.
... closing the borders to China and then Europe...
Nothing to object about the decision to close the borders. Very much to object about how this was done.
It was done totally unorganized. I saw the the scenes on the airports. Dense crowds of people working themselves through checkpoints. Being a very frequent flyer, i know what is going on on airports, especially the older ones with multiple terminal buildings like JFK or Chicago O´Hare.
The result of this brawl was probably the opposite of what to achieve: More people in close contact got infected.
This is the common theme of the US handling the pandamic: No organization, no plan.
Of course this guy in office is responsible, who else? Governors don´t close borders. Governors even get hit on the head if they organize their own testing.
It is very bad management style to not support middle management (the states).
A last one on MSM: In my understanding they don´t lie in general, however what they do is they prioritize, they move topics to the foreground that may be uncomfortable. Everyone is free to make his own conclusions if he/she takes the time to look from different perspectives, different media on the situation. Everyone is free to compare statements with personal experience. Who stood for days in line to get Covid test and got the results only 10 days later will certainly be able to make up his mind about flawed testing conditions.
About the state of the nation, sadly enough Ken´s assessment is quite accurate. Only: This child in office is not the cause, it is the symptom.
Who are they? Not sure what you're getting at... I assume you are referring to Trump supporters, with the MAGA tag. I guess you feel republicans ascribe to groupthink as Democrats are so well known for. We don't. Build Better Back... BBB
Today, I had a friend from New York, USA ask how things were doing in Bristol, England (where I live) specifically, and the UK in general; in relation to Covid-19.
In response I replied along the lines below:-
Covid-19 Related deaths in Bristol, with a population of 535,907 (over half a million), peaked at 46 per week in week 16 (April 13th to April 19th): An average of just over 6 deaths per day.
Currently covid-19 related deaths in Bristol is averaging at about 4 deaths per week e.g. one person every couple of days.
As regards new cases in Bristol: Last week there was 21 new cases, this week it was 20 new cases (a fall of 1), which put the ‘R’ Value (Infection Rate) in Bristol at 0.95R
The UK Government target is to keep the R value below 1; and any area that goes above ‘1’ is closely monitored by the Government, and becomes at risk of a localised ‘lockdown’ if the rate of infection starts rising.
On average at the moment, about 100 places across the UK per week are put into local lockdown by the Government, mostly small locations e.g. a farm, occasionally a whole town or city, or larger area (as appropriate); as part of the ‘whack-a-mole’ policy.
Currently:-
• The ‘R’ value for the whole of the UK is 0.9
• The ‘R’ value for the whole of England is ‘1’, and
• The ‘R’ value for parts of Northern England (who are currently under ‘Restrictions’ (partial lockdown) is 1.1
Currently, the average for new confirmed cases in the UK is 818 daily, up from 545 daily a month ago, but up largely because more tests are being done e.g. the positivity rate (the number of positive tests per 100,000 tests is continuing to fall) e.g. naturally the more tests you do the more positive cases you detect. The Government was doing an average of about 180,000 tests a day a month ago, and now it’s near 300,000 tests per day and rising. The Government target is to get testing up to half a million a day by September e.g. the more tests you do the most positive cases you find, but the more people the ‘contact tracers’ can trace and put under isolation to further slow the spread of the virus, and keep the ‘R’ value lower. 97.5% of test results are returned within 24 hours in the UK.
As Regards UK Wide Covid-19 deaths:
• Current average is 58 Covid-19 related deaths a day across the whole of the UK, and still falling by the week.
• A month ago, on the 4th July, when pubs (bars) and restaurants reopened (for dining and drinking inside); and social distancing was reduced from ‘2 metres’ to ‘1 metre + (plus)’ to make it commercially viable for pubs and restaurants to open; the average daily death toll from Covid-19 in the UK at that time was 97 deaths per day (a third higher than it is now).
Schools
Following Boris’s failed attempt to reopen schools on the 1st June; Boris is now keen for schools to re-open in the 2nd week of September.
Boris’s Scientific and Medical Advisors have warned Boris that because the ‘R’ value is dangerously close to ‘1’ in the UK, if Boris wants to reopen schools in September then he will need to consider ‘temporarily’ closing pubs and restaurants from September to compensate; until such time as the ‘R’ value drops to a safer level, or a vaccine is rolled out.
UK Long Term Objective
Boris’s objective is to get the UK ‘socially’ and ‘economically’ back to near normal (while containing the pandemic) by “No earlier than 1st November, but before Christmas”.19th August: Average Daily Covid-19 related deaths have just finally dipped into single figures for the UK; down significantly from the 4th July (Super Saturday), when the daily average was 47 deaths. Super Saturday (4th July) being when the UK finally reopened its economy from the long hard social and economic lockdown e.g. the UK’s economy was on hold from the 23rd March to 4th July (15 weeks of economic inactivity).
But the long haul (15 weeks lockdown), along with the swift and tough local lockdowns since, to quail any resurgence, has been worth it, as life in the UK is now getting back to normality. The only major part of the UK economy still under national lockdown are the nightclubs; with no indication from the Government of when they might be able to reopen again.
Other Covid-19 related news in the UK includes:-
• Testing is continually being cranked up, and in spite of more and more testing being done, the number of new confirmed cases have steadily fallen over the past week.
• Also, the positivity rate on testing is now one of the lowest in Europe; currently around 0.5%
• Schools in England and Wales reopen in a couple of weeks, so it will be interesting to see if Boris’s Covid-19 safety measures work as well for schools as they did for pubs (bars) and restaurants when they reopened for dining and drinking inside on 4th July.Good to hear the numbers have taken a turn. Some of the schools here in the US are reopening, each state with different rules on reopening just as it was with the order of mitigation. The public schools in my area have (a suburb of Detroit) have decided all public schools will remain closed. Many states seem to be keeping schools closed with some online learning.
It is obvious with some school openings here that the virus is spreading, and making it necessary to reclose those schools in question.
At this point, I feel the schools should be kept closed at least to see what we face from the virus in the fall. It's unfortunate but necessary.
My grandson attends private school, his school will open with strict mitigations. His school has set up plexiglass between teacher and students and will wear masks, the children will be well distanced, and wear masks when coming and going from the classroom. There will be no recreation periods, and hand sanitizer will be required upon entering the classroom. Temps will be taken, as well as testing of children if they show any signs. It will be very interesting if these mitigations cut the spread of the virus.Yes, I’ve been watching on the TV in the last week the disastrous attempts in the USA to reopen colleges and universities; with many having to reclose due to the students partying on campus, spreading the virus like wildfire.
In seeing how irresponsible and immature the American youth are acting over the pandemic issue, I now understand why Americans are so opposed to lowing the voting age to 16. Lowering the voting age is another topic, where in other forums in the past, as a European I haven’t seen eye-to-eye with Americans e.g. the youth in the UK are generally more responsible and mature, and more savvy about social, economic and political issues than the American youth appears to be! FYI: The voting age has been lowered to 16 in Scotland, it will be in Wales next year, and there is growing pressure to lower the voting age to 16 in England. Why the difference in mentality of American youth and European youth, I don’t know?
Anyway, Boris (UK Prime Minister) did make a failed attempt to open schools in England and Wales, for six week before the summer recess, on the 1st June: Scotland has a different academic year, more in line with America.
On the 1st June, when the UK Government (Boris) asked schools to reopen, subject to following his strict Covid-19 safe Regulations (which included reducing class sizes by 50%) not only was the Trade Union sceptical but many Local Governments kept their schools shut, and where schools did open many parents refused to send their kids back to school anyway. FYI in England & Wales the Academic year is from mid-September until Mid-July the following year.
Anyway, this time round Boris (UK Government) has made reopening of schools, Colleges and Universities, in September a ‘legal requirement’, so Local Governments will have no choice, and parents will be prosecuted if they refuse to send their kids back to school.
However, since the June fiasco, Boris (UK Prime Minister) has taken on-board the Trade Union’s concerns and devised ‘new’ Covid-19 safe ‘Regulations’ that meets with the satisfactions of the Trade Union.
As well as all the usual precautions e.g. using sanitizers on entering the classroom, socially distancing the desks, prohibiting mixing in the playground etc. The extra provisions being taken includes part time learning to reduce class size e.g. half the kids go to school in the mornings, and the other half in the afternoon, with the classrooms being disinfected between classes; and most important of all, the use of ‘social bubbles’, which are flexible, and which have proved so effective in curtailing the spread of the virus in the community.
A ‘Social Bubble’ (which can be any size, as dictated to by the Government) is the group of people that you (as an individual) can have social contact with e.g. a physical barrier to limit the spread of the virus. For example:
• For the first couple of months of the UK lockdown (from 23rd March, until end of May), everyone except key workers were prisoners in their own homes e.g. unable to go out unless it was for very specific limited reasons, including to buy food, medical reasons and limited daily exercise near your home. Being outside for any other reason, and you could get fined £60 ($80) for a first offence; with the penalty doubling for each subsequent offence e.g. over Easter people were fined £60 by the police for nipping out to buy chocolate Easter eggs, because that was deemed as a ‘non-essential journey’.
• In June, ‘Social Bubbles’ were introduced, and over time gradually extended e.g. at first the ‘Social Bubble’ included the people you lived with and one other person from another family. As from today, the Social Bubble in Wales has been extended to include ‘four families’ that you can socialise with.
In respect to the schools opening in September, the ‘Social Bubbles’ will be one teacher assigned to each class of no more than 20 children. The teachers will be kept in isolation from each other, and if that teacher or any of the children in his/her bubble contracts the virus then it’s only that bubble that has to be put into quarantine, and not the whole school.
Singles can form 'support bubble' with another household - UK COVID-19 briefing (over 2 months ago): https://youtu.be/TuZ1ZRBXhboIn looking at the stats today I note that in:-
Michigan, USA (less than the sixth of the population of the UK):-
• Current average daily Covid-19 related deaths is still stuck at 10 deaths a day.
While in the UK:-
• Current average daily Covid-19 related deaths have now fallen to just 7 deaths a day; the lowest it’s been since the peak of the pandemic in April.
Compared to the USA as a whole (population 5 times larger than the UK):-
• Where the current average daily Covid-19 related deaths is now 1,022 deaths a day; still stuck at over 1,000 deaths a day since 29th July, up from its lowest point of 521 daily deaths on the 5th July.The Nigerian case seems different. My search light is on school. In June schools were speculate to be open in August. What was done was to let final year student go for the senior certificate exams. Seriously, no attempt were made to open schools for revision and monk examinations. It is again being speculating schools to open in September. And this cannot be compare with the. United Kingdom or USA.
Arthur, we are discussing sources of Covid19 spreading in old Europe, the Government reaction, support for efforts. We discuss the outcome of lockdown relief and possible second wave.
What are the folks in the US doing? I get the impression that the Corona topic fades out of sight as elections get into focus. Is Trump right: ".. it is what it is .."?Nope, Trump is using the phrase “it is what it is” as an excuse to ‘Do Nothing’.
From the start Trump has been dismissive of the virus, and has always trivialised it. Yes he did ban foreigners from travelling from China quite early on; but that was a fiasco e.g. allowing Americans to come back from China, arriving in their thousands in overcrowded air terminals in the USA, to then go home without any need to isolate; spreading the virus across America. But he didn’t ban travel from Europe until quite late; and the same fiasco as with China e.g. banning foreigners only, but allowing Americans to come back in their thousands (without isolating) to further spread the virus across the USA.
The most important issue isn’t the election, it’s the pandemic. But as you said, the Americans are more focused on their election, with the pandemic fading into the background as a relatively minor ‘side issue’. In the UK the May Local Elections and Mayoral Elections have been postponed for 12 months; and nobody minds because everyone knows that that was the right thing to do. Obviously a Presidential Election is more important, but even so, the pandemic is more serious.
I get the impression that Americans just don’t grasp the severity of the situation. And also, Americans just don’t seem to value human life as much Europeans do. Both these facets are reflected in the President (Trump), who neither understands the seriousness of the pandemic nor has much regards for human life. And of course, having a Leader who has little regards for the pandemic means many tens of millions of Americans have little regards for the virus e.g. Lead by Example.
At least in Europe, our Government Leaders takes the pandemic seriously; and as such influences ‘Public Opinion’ in a positive, supportive non-political and constructive way: Something which is lacking in the USA; to their detriment, and to the detriment of the hundreds of thousands of Americans losing their lives needlessly, for something which could be mitigated against to minimise deaths if attitudes in the USA were different e.g. South Korea and China being prime examples of what can be achieved with a more positive and proactive attitude from Government Leaders and the population at large."From the start Trump has been dismissive of the virus"
That would be why he closed the borders, right? The first country to do so.
That would be why he virtually forced car manufacturers and others to begin production of medical equipment, right?
That would be why he moved military medical ships to different ports, right?
Trump has made some mistakes in his handling of the whole thing, IMO, and I have not always agreed with his assessment of priorities of economy vs lives, but that is a far cry from "From the start Trump has been dismissive of the virus".Arthur, wilderness,
i understood the word from Trump in the HBO interview to be a sign of resignation, something like "we can´t do much about it". It appears to me that most Americans have surrendered to this idea, not only Trump supporters, but also the opposing party and groups.
This is very dangerous. Americans delude themselves into "matters don´t get worse". But it will get worse after peak of first wave - and the US is just reaching the peak by now (peak being the max. of active cases). The state of NY had peaked and may serve as a blueprint of what is coming. After the state of NY had peaked, death toll still tripled in NY. This is what is still ahead for the rest of the US.
The only way to fight the beast is to bring active cases down, to really bend the curve. I don´t see that in the US. Government is not committed, people are not disciplined, society does not show solidarity for the weak und vulnerable.
The only action undertaken was closing borders. Easy prey for Trump. Driven by politics, not by rational, me think. Either way the move was unprepared, poorly organised, obviously caused the opposite: more infections and uncontrolled spreading at airport immigration.
The USA displays itself as a fragile giant, very vulnerable, always trying to blame others where they failed.
It is not only the economy in shatters, the environment also: With the worldwide decline in energy demand (long before Corona), the fracking thing became obsolete, because too expensive. An estimate of 3 million fracking bores are unused. Only 1 million were closed properly. 2 million holes are open, nobody taking care, thousands of companies have gone bankrupt.
This fracking was not very healthy from the beginning, but now the world has a problem with methane in the atmosphere. The guy on top talks about low frequency noise of windturbines to cause cancer - ridiculous.
I bring this up, because in my impression the administration has lost control over everything: Corona, economy, environment, ... except .. except the reelection campaign. What a tragedy.Yep, I concur with all you say Chris. And as you said, once America reaches its peak in new infections then follows months of stubbornly high daily deaths rates as the death toll gradually falls; resulting in the tripling of the overall death count. We’ve seen it in Italy and Spain, in New York, and here in the UK.
Wilderness, I don’t dispute what you say about China, car manufacturers and the medical ships.
In fact, if you read my next sentence in my previous comment, I did acknowledge that Trump did impose the travel ban (for non-Americans) from China.
Yes, on the 31st January, the USA was one of the first countries to impose a travel ban from China (for non-Americans), as did Italy on the same day. But in the USA it was a fiasco as thousands of Americans rushed back to overcrowded American airports (infecting each other further) before dispersing themselves throughout the States.
The UK Government also commissioned manufacturers (including car manufacturers) to switch to making medical equipment. It’s a logical thing to do, and I’m sure many industrialised countries did likewise.
We didn’t have military medical ships in the UK, but the UK Government built four new hospitals in ten days.
These are all fine steps, great for quoting in Presidential Elections; but beyond that there’s been very little of real substance by Trump to take the pandemic seriously, and to truly combat the virus.
From across the pond it all smacks of ‘playing politics’ rather than taking the pandemic seriously e.g. Trump politicising mask wearing (discouraging his supporters from wearing masks), and ignoring ‘social distancing’ at his rallies etc.
If like Government Leaders in all the European and Asian countries, Trump had encouraged people to wear masks and ‘social distance’, formulated an ‘Action Plan’ (based on scientific and medical advice) to combat the pandemic, and persistently stressed the seriousness of the pandemic rather than trying to dismiss it; then not only would the death toll have been dramatically reduced in the USA, but also (from across the pond) Trump wouldn’t be seen so much as the narcissistic leader that he is.
If only Trump spoke to the people like Boris (UK Prime Minister) then perhaps the nation (in the USA) wouldn’t be so divided? E.g. in recent ‘Press Conference’ Boris Johnson warns the public that 'it isn't all over' for coronavirus: https://youtu.be/ygtDSiOOTfcI have tired of hearing Trump handled the virus poorly. I have added a link to one of the very early tasks force press conferences. Many just don't realize the President was handling the virus on the information he was getting from two top agencies he felt he could trust. The CDC and WHO. Here is the transcript to the press conference that was held on Jan 31, 2020.
"DR. REDFIELD head of CDC ---: "Thank you, Mr. Secretary. Let me give you an update on the current situation of the novel coronavirus. First, though, I want to emphasize that this is a serious health situation in China, but I want to emphasize that the risk to the American public currently is LOW. Our goal is to do all we can do to keep it that way. Second, I want to recognize the concern that the American public may have. And I want to reiterate what I just said: Currently, the risk of the American public is LOW."
DR. Fauci, please take time and read the link to learn what Fauci's feelings were at that point --"If you put all these things together, I underscore what Bob said: We still have a low risk to the American public, but we want to keep it at a LOW risk." Trump listened to the scientist! His first big mistake.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st … ask-force/
This is the same period that Trump was making statements that the virus will go away, we have it under control... At that point, he was being told the possibility for COVID causing a problem to the US was low. Should he have respected these agencies, it very well appears he should not have. He listened to the so-called experts, which included Dr. Fauci. Fauci told him there was no need to stop air travel. In the beginning, Fauci had a different opinion on mask-wearing. Time to stop totally blaming the President of The US.
Because it is obvious he in the beginning listened to the wrong people. I thank God he stopped air travel, not sure what would have happened in regard to the death count. And Thank God he pointed out the problems that occurred with the CDC, WHO, and Fauci.
Every press conference is available to listen to in full on youtube. Maybe get your information in full from the very people that were "running the show".
I am very discouraged with seeing opinions that just don't pan out to be truthful. Your stats are always right on, but your research into what the president did and said do not hit the mark. Hus statements match the information he was given by all the so-called experts. I can prove it time after time.Your frustration, (about this point), is obvious in your comments Sharlee and I don't think you are entirely wrong for feeling that way.
I think it is a matter of perception and presentation. We always look for someone or something to blame for our problems and in this case Pres. Trump's "style" made him an easy target.
I don't think he failed to do what he could, and I do think he generally acted based on the information he had—even if he did always try to put an overly-optimistic spin on it.
As an optimist, it might even be fair to say he was trying to offer hope instead of doom and gloom. Unfortunately, I also think there were times when this was not the best approach. Sometimes a dose of reality is needed more than cheer.
GAYes, I am frustrated at this point with the blame game. I have approached the conversation in a few different ways on this thread as well as others were the conversation leads to Trump's handling of the virus. I have made attempts to point out facts, as in this last comment, dates, information, what was said when. I have gone down the scientific path using my education in virology. Which is somewhat limited but my degrees are in science. BS in anatomy and physiology, and a second BA in Science of nursing. So I feel comfortable commenting on viruses. A virus is really not containable without a vaccine, and the degree it spreads depends on the virility of the virus, as well as its propensity to spread more quickly through a crowded society. Such as New York for example. Many of the Governors invited trouble with their mitigation orders. Not really concentrating on what would stifle the virus a bit. Such as a nursing home, making sure the people were separated and kept in quarantine.
Many have been complaining about Trump did not follow the scientist. The fact is science in every respect will provide one very clear fact --- A virus can only be contained by a vaccine and suitable medications to help with symptoms while ill. Which with a brand new virus there just isn't a vaccine and most of the time insufficient medications to help with symptoms.
At the very beginning of the virus, I myself was taken in by the low key reports from the CDC and WHO. It soon became apparent what we were dealing with, and that we will deal with it until we get a vaccine or if lucky some really bad virus fizzles out through mutations.
I see no one is to blame for a virus, but perhaps China for not giving us heads up.
And Trump has taken a political beating over this, and I find it disappointing that a political party has the audacity to use it as a club...
What's disappointing to me it well appears to me our society can't take a dose of reality or cheer. In my view, truth is something that if many don't want to hear, so oddly enough some tune out and just don't except truth.
I can live with this, it's actually interesting to be alive at this point in our history to watch this kind of phenomenon.Sharlee, with reference to your comments in your second paragraph above; to quote:-
Many have been complaining about Trump did not follow the scientist. The fact is science in every respect will provide one very clear fact --- A virus can only be contained by a vaccine and suitable medications to help with symptoms while ill. Which with a brand new virus there just isn't a vaccine and most of the time insufficient medications to help with symptoms.
FYI: Every country in Europe and in Asia has clearly demonstrated that the virus can be contained by means other than a vaccine and medication:-
For example:-
• South Korea: Total population over 51 million: Total Covid-19 related deaths = 309
• Germany: Total population almost 84 million: Total Covid-19 related deaths = 9,336
• Greece: Total population over 10 million: Total Covid-19 related deaths = 242
• Michigan, USA: Total population just under 10 million (same population size as Greece above): Total Covid-19 related deaths = 6,663
Michigan has the same population size as Greece, yet almost 28 times the death toll.
Michigan’s population is a fifth of the size of the population of South Korea, yet the death toll in Michigan is almost 22 times higher than the death toll in South Korea.
Countries like South Korea, Germany and Greece managed to keep their death toll low, in spite of not have a vaccine, simply because their Governments closely followed the advice of the Scientific and Medical Experts right from the start of the pandemic.How Germany is fighting the virus.
The force is with us:
Taken from the offical homepage of the state government of Lower Saxony. https://www.niedersachsen.de/Coronavirus
Sharlee, actually this is not about opinions, it is about facts. The US Corona situation simply is out of control. The US adds every day 3 deaths/million to the statistics. Soon 1 out of 50 Americans will have been infected. Another month and the US will pass Italy and even the UK in population adjusted mortality. The US just doesn´t get the curve bent.
The Trump administration urged states to open up too early after lockdown. Only those states that resisted (NY and to some extent Mi. got matters mostly under control). The mess of today is a federal issue.
By the way, every country faced the same issues with the unknown virus. Every administration held the same kind of press conferences with the same kind of experts. It was the political will to set priorities that made the difference and makes the difference.
After going through the protocol from your link: Why didn´t administration act appropriately? In January was already known that asymptomatic carriers would spread the virus (the German Webasto incident).
In Germany this knowledge led to immediate focus on testing. Otherwise you couldn´t identify carriers. The US did ... nothing, until it was too late.
This protocol already holds valuable information. Was ignored for 2 months. Who else is to blame than those in charge on the very top.Sharlee, with your experience and qualifications in science you should be more aware that the scientific community works with inertia e.g. never proclaiming anything to be fact until it’s proven and peered reviewed. So in the early days of the pandemic, when little was known about the virus, neither WHO, CDC, SAGE or other scientific bodies around the world were advocating travel bans or mask wearing because at that point they were not proven to be effective.
I know that to the likes of you and me (the ordinary man/woman in the street) travel bans and mask wearing would seem obvious; but that’s not the way science works e.g. the obvious has to be proven, and peered reviewed, before the scientific community will accept it as factual. I’m familiar with this mentality because I too come from a scientific background.
The point is, as more has been learnt about the virus, the scientific community has shifted its stance and its advice in certain key areas; but Trump hasn’t. It’s not perfect, but across Europe and Asia Governments have listened to and trusted the scientists, and modified their actions plans accordingly as new scientific evidence has led to modifications in the scientific Advice. While Trump, rather than embracing the science, all too often tries to undermine the scientific bodies and scientists: Often for political expediency e.g. his desire to keep the economy open rather than save lives.
Boris Johnson (UK Prime Minister) was at the start of the pandemic slow in listening to the Scientists, which cost the UK dearly in lost lives. But from the end of March, and to this day, Boris Johnson (UK Government) have been heavily guided by the Scientific and Medical Advice in fighting the pandemic; which has bought the pandemic under control in the UK e.g. daily UK deaths (in a population of over 66 million) now down to single figures.
From the end of March, for the first three months of the pandemic, the UK Government held a daily briefing to the Nation, on all British TV news Channels at ‘Prime Time’; lasting over an hour each day (Typical format being 20 minutes update, 20 minutes Q&A from the General Public and 20 minutes Q&A from the Press). The format generally being the Prime Minister (or a senior Government Minister) in the centre of the podium with a Scientific Advisor from SAGE on one side, and a Medical Advisor from SAGE on his other side.
Q&A’s (Questions from the Public and Press) at the UK government's daily coronavirus briefing on 2nd June: https://youtu.be/NanccYlOuCA?t=827
In the USA you have the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention); a Federal Government Department in the USA.
In the UK we have SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies): SAGE is the UK’s Governmental Advisory Body; consisting of 20 Independent Scientists and Medical Advisors; who are NOT employed by the Government, and who do NOT operate under Government Instruction.Sharlee, specific quotes (which I’ve now heard a number of times); if you read the speeches carefully, neither the CDC nor Dr. Fauci said “the possibility for COVID causing a problem to the US was low.”; that concept was taken out of concept because people like Trump do NOT listen to the ‘fine’ details; they hear what they want to hear, and filter out the rest.
To clarify what I mean, I’ve highlighted in bold below the key words/phrases which you and Trump, and so many other Americans have ignored in the speeches.
"DR. REDFIELD head of CDC ---: "Thank you, Mr. Secretary. Let me give you an update on the current situation of the novel coronavirus. First, though, I want to emphasize that this is a serious health situation in China, but I want to emphasize that the risk to the American public currently is LOW. Our goal is to do all we can do to keep it that way. Second, I want to recognize the concern that the American public may have. And I want to reiterate what I just said: Currently, the risk of the American public is LOW."
DR. Fauci, please take time and read the link to learn what Fauci's feelings were at that point --"If you put all these things together, I underscore what Bob said: We still have a low risk to the American public, but we want to keep it at a LOW risk." Trump listened to the scientist! His first big mistake.
In other words it wasn’t “The risk to Americans is low”, it was “the risk to Americans is currently low”; and the emphasis is “but we want to keep it that way”.
To elaborate, at the time of those speeches, made on 31st January, there had only been one confirmed case in the USA; even by the 15th February there were still only 15 confirmed cases in the whole of the USA. So yes, at that time, the risk of infection in the USA from Covid-19 was very low.
However, the clear advice from the CDC at the time was “Our goal is to do all we can do to keep it that way”. That advice was not taken seriously by Trump.
Following the easing of the lockdown in the UK, this is our 2nd Social Adventure outside the home in 5 months.
Covid-19 Stir Crazy Road Trip to Ashton Court Estate, Bristol: https://youtu.be/o2fQ1ZWsF_cWilderness, truth is told. Government don't have answers always.
The Rule of Six
The Whole UK in ‘Social Lockdown’ as from today (Monday 12th September).
In England, Boris (Prime Minister) has imposed the ‘Rule of 6’; the Governments of the other three nations (Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) are also applying similar social restrictions as from today.
In England, the ‘Rule of 6’ (simplified to make it easier for the police to enforce) is simply that as from today it is illegal for people to socialise in public or private (indoors or outdoors) in groups of more than 6 people.
The fine for breaching Covid-19 safe rules (which includes not wearing masks in public enclosed spaces and breaking social distancing rules) has been increased from £60 for a first offence to £100; with the fine doubling for each subsequent offence. The fine for organising illegal parties (raves) remains at £10,000.
There are exemptions e.g. social gatherings for weddings and funerals remain at a maximum of 30 people.
The reason for the sudden nationwide ‘social lockdown’ is because over the past week the average number of positive tests across the UK (positivity rate) has increased from 13.9 people per 100,000 tested to 21.3 people testing positive for every 100,000 tested.
The UK Government’s ‘threshold’ for when to take action to try to curb any increase in the virus spread is set at 20 people in 100,000 testing positive; based on scientific and medical advice; hence the imposition of the ‘social lockdown’ this week. The ‘R’ value for the UK is now estimated to be 1.2
In comparison, in the USA, the State with the lowest infection rate last week was Vermont with 264 infected people for every 100,000 tested; with the worst State being Louisiana with 3,288 infected people for every 100,000 tested.
The other comparison being that covid-19 related deaths in the USA is around 1,000 per day, compared to around 10 per day in the UK.
NHS Covid-19 App
The other development in the UK is that the NHS Covid-19 App finally goes live in the UK on 26th September; the rollout having been delayed by almost 3 months due to glitches with Apple Smart Phones.
Initially, the UK Government developed the NHS Covid-19 App, with the intention of rolling it out nationwide on the 1st June; the UK opting to develop its own app rather than use the Google/Apple App (that’s been successfully used in South Korea and other countries around the world) because (if it works properly) it is considered superior to the Google/Apple app. However, in trials it didn’t work properly on Apple devices due to Apple security settings.
Therefore, the UK Government spent a couple of months trying to get Apple’s help. The outcome is a modified NHS app, that can only be downloaded from Apple and Google Stores, which does most of what the UK Government wanted; albeit it has also been enhanced by the NHS to give added features that is considered to make the app more appealing to users. The new NHS app, which will aid ‘contract tracers’ has now been successfully trialled, and goes live in a couple of weeks.
NHS coronavirus tracing app to launch in England and Wales https://youtu.be/VpEuvMReVFY
Boris Barmy Testing Plans
Operation Moonshot: To test 10 million Brits Daily
Unlike other countries, the UK Government has not adopted the temperature tests at airports because the British Government considers that they are not reliable enough; hence the current mandatory 14 day quarantine (with £1,000 fine for non-compliance) when coming back from other countries where the positivity rate on testing is higher than 20 per 100,000.
Currently the UK Government is trialling a quick 20 minute Covid-19 test kit at airports (which under test has an accuracy of about 98%) as a more reliable alternative to quarantine than the temperature option.
In the grand scheme of things; Boris (UK Prime Minister) is intent on trying similar kits, in a large scale trial in October; as a means for a ‘daily passport’.
The concept being that if the trials in October are successful, then the scheme would be rollout nationwide; so that people who wanted to socialise e.g. go to nightclubs, pubs (bars), restaurants, cinemas etc. could get a quick test done in the morning, and if the result is negative then it would give them a ‘passport’ for the rest of the day to go anywhere they wanted without socially distancing e.g. because of the reliability of the tests it should filter out over 98% of infectious people, making the risk of coming into contact with any who is infectious extremely slim.
The scheme has come in for some criticism, because although the kits would be manufactured within the UK the logistics of maintaining the daily supply chain is rather ambitious e.g. it’s estimated that 10 million test kits will be needed daily; plus the cost to the Government for the scheme is calculated to be around £100 billion.
However, Boris has done barmy things in the past, and got away with it, so we’ll just have to wait and see how and or whether it pans out; or whether any other modified, more practical scheme evolves from the trials?
Operation Moonshot Announced By Prime Minister Boris Johnson https://youtu.be/DmAcZFTU9HYWill be very interesting to see, how this quick test will work out. What is the basics behind this test? As far as i understand, common swab tests need a petri dish multiplication process (takes time) to produce enough genom material for analysis. So - how is the quick test working? I am curious, because in internet you find a lot of "background" information on who developed the tests, which companies are involved, but very little on the theory. Antibody?
Meanwhile in Germany there is evidance investiged that Covid19 contagion period is overestimated. Efforts are made to reduce quarantine period down to 1 week for those coming from high risk regions.
To some extent Germany is beginning to suffer from the "good response" paradoxon. Because of low fatality rate ( for months statistically invisible) people start questioning the necessity of distancing and lockdown measures.
Demonstrations in Berlin in the past months should not be overrated. But they indicate unrest and worries about economic fallout and personal freedom.Good question Chris. A few weeks back, when it was announced that one of the rapid 20 minute test kits was being trialled in a pilot scheme at one of the British airports, on the British TV News Channel a quick demonstration and explanation was given; and they described it as similar to a home pregnancy test. I couldn’t remember the details, and like you, I had difficulty in finding the more technical details on the theory and how these new tests actually work.
However in digging around, I did eventually find three websites that is of interest:-
#1: The first is a “The Scientist” publication on 9th July, which stated for example; quotes:-
• Propelled by a global pandemic, researchers in the US and the UK are now modifying LAMP and assessing its utility as a diagnostic tool for COVID-19.
• While saliva can be a crude sample for diagnosing disease using traditional PCR, it pairs well with a cheap PCR alternative known as loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), previously used to detect outbreaks of Zika and Ebola in resource-poor countries.
• “high-performance LAMP” with 1,000 times the sensitivity of a standard LAMP assay, capable of detecting a single copy of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in as little as one microliter of saliva.
The link, for more information is: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin … d-19-67720
#2: Published on the UK Government website on 3rd August; details of millions of test kits for 2 new rapid saliva tests that gives results in just 90 minutes that was rollout to the NHS in preparation for any potential winter surge in the virus.
Details at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/roll … -of-winter
#3: Published on the UK Government website on 3rd September; details of large scale trials of 3 new rapid saliva tests that gives results in just 20 minutes, that are to be trialled in three separate pilot schemes, in three different towns in England (Salford, Southampton and Hampshire) simultaneously.
Details at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/500- … est-trials
A few weeks ago the UK Government had a similar debate about the quarantine period. The proposal at the time was to reduce it to 10 days; but the rules doesn’t seem to have changed that much. The current official ‘Regulations’, as published on the NHS website is:-
How long to self-isolate (in the UK)
If you have symptoms or have tested positive for coronavirus, you'll usually need to self-isolate for at least 10 days.
You'll usually need to self-isolate for 14 days if:
• someone you live with has symptoms or tested positive
• someone in your support bubble has symptoms or tested positive
• you've been told to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace
The fine in the UK for breaking the 14 day ‘travel quarantine’ rules (air travel from countries on UK’s black list) is £1,000. So far 10 people in the UK have been fined for breaching the ‘travel quarantine rules’.
In the UK the death rate has flat lined around 10 deaths a day for about the past six weeks, so certainly the younger (predominantly people in their 20’s) have become more relaxed (the age group in the UK where the infection is currently most rife). However, generally the British Public are supportive of Government in the fight against Covid-19, so we haven’t had the demonstrations like those in Berlin. The biggest problem in the UK has been large house parties (albeit by just a small percentage of the population, but nevertheless the UK Authorities have zero tolerance for such breaches of the law); hence the £10,000 fine for organising illegal parties. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/c … 31569.html
Generally speaking, the British Public can be very responsive to Government Advice during periods of crisis e.g. 2nd world war, and in more recent times the ‘Salmonella Scare’ in 1988:
On the 3rd December 1988, Edwina Currie MP (Conservative Junior Health Minister) spoke out on the British TV News that most British eggs were contaminated with salmonella.
The immediate effect was that millions of Brits stopped buying eggs and the British Egg Industry collapsed with over a third of the egg producers going out of business within months. Needless to say, Edwina Currie had to resign as Government Minister; but she’s never regretted her actions, because in her mind she was putting the health of the people ahead of the health of the Industry.
The long term effect has been the British Egg Industry spent years ‘Self Regulating’ to stamp out salmonella in eggs, and rebuild the confidence of the British consumer. It took 15 years, but eventually the British Egg Industry reached their goal of guaranteeing that all British eggs stamped with the red ‘British lion’ are 100% salmonella free. Today the British Egg Industry follows a strict 190 page ‘self-regulated’ ‘Code of Practice’ consisting of over 70 stringent self-regulated, and strictly enforced, safety procedures to ensure all British eggs are salmonella free. So now, if you buy an egg with the red ‘British Lion’ stamped on it you are assured that its 100% salmonella free.
Edwina Currie MP talks about the British Salmonella crisis of 1988: https://youtu.be/0sLNz7aqK4g
Thanks for the info, Arthur.
Seems to be a good and reliable method to speed up analysis.
However here in G. we have lots of red tape.
Firstly, only doctors are allowed to diagnose an infection. Secondly, pharmacies are not allowed to sell test kits to layman people. Thirdly all this red tape is associated to high fines (30.000,- Euro) if violated.
Looks like politics tries to change regulations to adopt for the RT LAMP tests. Hopefully they use "RT LAMP" speed to change rules :-)Thanks for your feedback Chris.
The latest news is that although up until the end of August 97.5% of results were returned within 24 hours; since the beginning of September (due to a massive increase in demand for testing) the UK currently has the same problem with bottlenecking in the LABs that the USA has e.g. demand outstripping supply. And that’s in spite of the fact that the UK Government has steadily increased ‘capacity’ for testing from 100,000 a day in May to over 300,000 now; with its own ambitious target to get the capacity up to 500,000 a day by October. In contrast the USA has reduced testing from 800,000 a day to 600,000 a day over the past couple of weeks.
Because of the current crisis in testing, for which Boris is being grilled in Parliament today, the Government is making ‘testing’ a top priority, and will be making more resources available e.g. Government money, additional LAB facilities etc., but the Government admits it will take weeks before ‘supply can once again meet demand’.
As regards the Rapid saliva RT LAMP tests, and other tests for that matter:
• In the NHS (UK) specialised, highly trained, fully qualified nurses have (for a long time) been able to take on a lot of the duties of doctors (for less pay); the more routine stuff that is. Albeit, it’s the doctors who have the ultimate responsibility, and only a doctor or consultant who can diagnosis. I don’t know if it’s similar in Germany?
• However, with regards to the pandemic, it’s the test ‘Labs’ that predominantly makes the diagnoses e.g. positive or negative result; unless of course you’re seeing your doctor for a related illness and they diagnose it, or they diagnose it on the death certificate because you died at home etc.
As with Germany, in the UK it is currently illegal to sell test kits to the layperson (whether that changes or not remains to be seen) e.g. all tests have to be carried out either by the NHS or on the NHS’s behalf.
As regards Boris’s ambitious plan to use the new rapid saliva RT LAMP test kits to ultimately be able to do 10 million diagnoses a day in the UK; under the best case scenario it’s something that is going to take many months (rather than weeks) to implement simply because such testing is still under R&D e.g. the technology is still being developed and tested, and the logistics of scaling up to millions of tests a day still hasn’t been refined.
But from what I can gather, the concept in Boris’s mind is that rather than home test kits, you’ll have to go to your local pharmacists (or similar) in your locality for ‘daily’ on the spot testing, to get your ‘day passport’; something which is more feasible with the new RT LAMP kits because you don’t need a LAB to carry out the tests. But we’ll have to wait and see what detailed proposals Boris comes up with (which will be dependent on the outcome of the three separate pilot schemes being carried out in England).
As regards the politics, the one advantage Boris has over the USA is that because it’s a ‘national emergency’ Boris can (and does) use ‘Queens Prerogative’ to make decisions e.g. make laws without having to get Parliamentary consent. The advantage being that he can make laws at a stroke, and therefore react to changing circumstances swiftly without being bogged down by all the red tape. The disadvantage is that he gets a grilling in Parliament when he gets things wrong.
On the positive side Boris is relying very heavily on SAGE (the UK’s equivalent to the CDC) to make his policies; so his plans are scientifically backed.
I think that at the back of Boris’s mind is the reality that it could be a very long time before an effective vaccine is readily available to the masses; in spite the fact that the UK has placed orders (with half a dozen different Companies) to buy more vaccines than any other country in the world, even the USA) e.g. enough vaccine for the whole UK population 5 times over. Although, Boris has stated that any surplus vaccines that the UK ends up with be donated to the third world.
Therefore Boris is keen on pressing ahead with mass testing using the new rapid saliva RT LAMP tests as a matter of urgency as a stop gap, which is far more scalable than the present testing methods; albeit its new territory with something that’s still under R&D, and there is yet a lot of logistics to be sorted to make it workable. But money is no object e.g. Boris is willing to throw £100 billion at this new scheme e.g. estimated to cost the equivalent to about 75% of the total annual budget for the NHS.
Did you hear about this "sign of hope?"
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin … -19--67876
In trying to understand the mechanisms of serious and fatal outcomes of Covid19 infection, initially intensive immune system reaction was made responsible, but does not explain everything.
Now an intensive mass case study gives room for another theory:
It looks like Covid19 indirectly inhibits the breakdown of a hormonal bodysubstance (Bradykinin). This hormon is produced with inflamatory processes and signals pain and opens vessels (in laymens terms).
The beauty of this theory is that it explains the inpact of so called preconditions (especially inflammatory perconditions) and of anormalities in the blood circuit.
So most don´t get sick, because they have few Bradykinin hormons, so there is little to break down and remove from the body. Others really get sick, because their hormon system is already compromised with Bradykinin and Covid19 inhibits the disposal, allowing fluid in the lungs (that is what the hormon does by opening up vessels).
The study suggests, get control over this hormon and you have the key to prevent serious outcomes.I wasn’t aware of that aspect, so it was an interesting read; and good to see that trials are underway to explore potential treatments based on the theories. Albeit, it’s all going to take time, even if any of the avenues under research proves fruitful.
Another Covid-19 related topic, one which you don’t hear Americans talking about although it’s going to affect their nation more than most, is the ‘Coronavirus long-haulers’; a subject that pops up in the British News Media periodically.
Link Here for Further Information: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02598-6
Just to mention some of the points about the ‘Long Haulers’; it’s people who recover from Covid-19 but, as a result of Covid-19, are left with long term (potentially permanent) serious health issues:-
Not enough is known about the problem yet, but one estimate is that around 10% of people who are hospitalised with Covid-19 but survive end up with long term health issues, not just in their lungs, but in their heart, immune system, and other major organs. COVID-19 often strikes the lungs first, but it is not simply a respiratory disease, and in many people, the lungs are not the worst-affected organ. Some people who have recovered from COVID-19 could be left with a weakened immune system.
With the high level of infections in the USA, this will almost certainly put further strain on the American Healthcare System for years, and even decades, to come.
The latest from the UK is that Boris is acting tough now (so that we can relax later) because he’s fixated in ensuring the British can have a good Christmas (a goal which he’s expressed several times since July). In relation to his push to have the pandemic well under control by Christmas, was his announcement today of putting parts of North East England (the worst affected areas) under lockdown e.g. about 100 infected people per 100,000 people in North East England.Would be interesting to know if Boris Johnson still has antibodies? How long is that he recovered?
Good question; the preliminary research I've seen so far suggests that the antibodies tend to fade quite quickly e.g. within three months; unless you've seen more resent research that suggests otherwise?
Boris was hospitalised on the 14th April, and although it was touch and go at one point (he almost died), he returned to work on the 27th April; although at the time it was clear that he was still not fully recovered.
It was an awkward time because the pandemic peaked on the 14th April in the UK; but unlike other countries, there is no provision in our Constitution to cover leadership in the event of the Prime Minister being incapacitated. Therefore the UK was Leaderless (like a headless chicken) as a time when a Leader was most needed.
The result being that major decision, such as instigating the much needed mass testing programme etc. was put on hold until Boris returned to work. But once he was back at work major decisions started to be made again.These latest comments of both Chriss57 and Nathanville were all interresting revealations. Not a thing to be overlooked by a mature adult. The fact is that we should take every precaution to prevent the spread of the virus, contacting the pandemic, and infecting others. I believe like any other that prevention is a better means to handle a pandemic than curing the disease. Let me illustrate. As revealed, the "Long Covid 19" after effects were too numerous on the body system and organs. Not just the lung, or liver, or heart, etc. These are not short tern but long term effects which baffled the doctors more than the initial corvid-19 infections. I cannot compare this to the Nigerian situation, thought she had the best of intentions, she is politically divided.
Covid-19 Fatigue
The USA very quickly suffered from Covid-19 Fatigue; more so, and far quicker than European or Asian Countries e.g. no sooner were they in lockdown in late March, and Trump was biting at the bit to reopen the economy as early as 1st April. The USA was in lockdown (of sorts) for just 6 weeks, most European countries were in lockdown for 3 to 4 months.
Only in America did we see big anti-lockdown demonstrations; albeit a few isolated demonstrations (on a smaller scale) in a small handful of European countries.
One aspect that kept European citizens on-board with their Governments in fighting the pandemic, very much in evident in countries such as Spain, Italy, Greece and the UK just to mention a few, is the typical European ‘philosophical’ trait that so often surfaces during times of crisis; often accompanied with the European ‘wartime spirit’ (community spirit) that comes to the fore during national crisis: Traits you don’t seem to see in the USA.
Philosophical (definition): Having or showing a calm attitude towards disappointments or difficulties.
A prime example is the frustration British Tourists are currently facing when Boris (UK Prime Minister) suddenly imposes 14 day quarantine on British holidaymakers returning from counties added to the UK’s black list with little warning e.g. 24 hours’ notice.
Boris (UK Prime Minister) has set 20 infections in 100,000 people as the trigger point for taking action. So countries with less than 20 infections in 100,000 British tourists can return back from and not quarantine, but once the infection rate rises above 20 people in 100,000 in a country then quarantine is imposed with little notice; which catches holidaymakers on the hop, with having to face 14 days ‘travel quarantine on their return.
In the UK the 14 days ‘travel quarantine’ means imprisoned in your own home, only being able to go out for a Covid-19 test; not even permitted to leave your home to buy food e.g. have to have ‘home delivery’ for your food. The penalty for breaching the ‘travel quarantine’ Rules in the UK is a £1,000 ($1,300) fine.
To see how ‘Philosophical’ the British are about all this, these two short videos shows it all:
• UK Travellers rush to beat quarantine deadline https://youtu.be/LcsexMG4_5k
• UK tourists rush home to escape new quarantine restrictions https://youtu.be/KpYjKCsE3xo
I’d find it hard to imagine Americans being so ‘Philosophical’ as the Brits in the above videos; but it would be interesting to hear what they think?There is a new/old buzz word: Travel Warning.
Germany has issued travel warnings for some 160 countries because of Covid19 (includes Scotland :-)). This has some implications for people travelling to those places: When coming back travellers have to make a test and they have to pay for the test. Until the test result is negative they have to self quarantene.
This travel warning stuff also works the other way around. Finland, Norway, Iceland have issued warnings not to go to G. For Hungary all of the world is high risk territory.
Even the US has a travel warning out for G. and the EU. This appears to be more something of the kind: "if you don´t allow me - i don´t allow you". G. has currently 100 times less active cases in absolute numbers and 25 times less population adjusted. Shows how absurd some government action is.
How is the UK doing with "Travel Warnings"?In the UK the rules (which have been in place since May) are simple:-
A seven-day rate of 20 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people in any particular country is the threshold above which the UK Government triggers quarantine conditions.
Consequently, because these figures change on a daily basis there are times when countries are added or removed from the ‘black list’ almost on a daily basis; and when a country is added to the black list Boris acts swiftly and gives less than 24 hours’ notice: Meaning that Brits on holiday in those affected countries then have to make a mad dash back to England before the deadline or face 14 days mandatory quarantine.
There is no temperature testing done at British airports because the British Government considers the temperature testing isn’t accurate enough. However the British Government (NHS) are currently trialling a quick 20 minute saliva test for use at airports, which under trial has an accuracy of around 98% accurate.
So currently anyone returning from a country on the ‘black list’ has to quarantine for 14 days immediately; and arrange a series of testing over those 14 days.
The ‘travel quarantine’ is a lot stricter than ‘self-isolation’ e.g. you are NOT allowed to leave your house for any reason (except for testing), not even to buy food; you are only allowed to leave your home to get tested. You have to either arrange for your food to be home delivered; which since the pandemic has become well organised and widely available e.g. since March we’ve had all our food home delivered; or you arrange for someone to do the shopping for you.
The Authorities make spot checks to ensure people are abiding by the ‘travel quarantine’ rules and the penalty for breaching the ‘travel quarantine’ is £1,000; the penalty for giving false information or moving to a different quarantine address without informing the Authorities is £3,200.
These strict measures are not popular with businesses (especially the airline Companies), but they do have the full support of the British Public.In re-reading your post, I found it interesting that Germans have to pay for the tests when travelling back to Germany from countries with ‘travel warnings’.
Is it a nominal fee, or quite expensive, and do you have to pay for any of the other tests?
Currently in the UK ALL Tests are Free on the NHS.Sorry Arthur, i have to correct myself. It is (almost) the other way around.
- All tests for those coming back from high risk countries have to do mandatory testing and that is for free. You have to register after reentry.
- Those coming back from non risk countries and want to test voluntarily have to pay for the test (some 60 to 80 Euro as far as i know). Since Sept. 15th
- If you go to a country, where negative tests are required, this is your choice and tests are treated as voluntary and have to be paid.
Fees for not following these rules are depending on state regulations, for us in Lower Saxony i found out:
- No registration after reentry: 150 .. 2.000,- Euro
- Ignore ordered quarantine after reentry: 500 .. 3.000,- Euro
While Lower Saxony has specific rules for reentry from high risk countries, i found nothing for Bavaria. However Bavarias fine catalogue is much longer for Corona related incidents and fines go up to 25.000,-
While browsing through the Corona fines catalogues, i conclude that a lot of emphasis is laid on business management to enforce distancing rules. Many fines are attached to personal responsibility. I even wonder if they were tax deductable.Except the temperature tests, no other free tests that is being discuss has been done in Nigeria.
That's not good; without the proper tests there is no way of knowing the extent of the spread of the virus, and more difficult to determine deaths related to the virus.
The federal government of Nigeria is to be blame for this lapse. My candid reasoning is this. As long as the CV19 is not in the party in power manisfestos, only legiskature will affect it. To me, the best person to sponsor such a legislature is the president. Sad to say he has no free will being a pupet of certain cabal.
With the exception of the temperature tests or checks that is being carried out by the big companies, not much has been achieved publicly as regard to the actual test to detect who has the virus. But those with difficult breathing problems will go for 'suspect' covid-19 tests. Whatsoever, the method of the test hadly see the light of the day.
Hot Off the Press
Boris (UK Prime Minister) is contemplating a full economic lockdown for the whole of England, for two weeks sometime in October.I can't imagine that. Many fears, questions, and worries can arise. Is it as a result of decision made at cabinet meeting? Is the government to take responsibility to provde supplementaries or essentials to all its citizens and foreigners alike? After the two weeks the whole of England will be fresher as a forest from industial polution.
Taking one point at a time:-
#1: No it’s not as a result of decisions made at Cabinet meetings; albeit Boris is consulting (to varying degrees) with his Cabinet, and all interested parties (including opposition political parties); to keep all on-board. And his decisions are based on the Advice of SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies); the UK’s equivalent to the CDC.
However, because the pandemic is a ‘National Emergency’ Boris is using his powers of ‘Queen’s Prerogative’ to make decisions relevant to pandemic without the need to consult his Cabinet or Parliament. Queen’s Prerogative (which dates back to the 13th century) are powers that originally resided with the Monarchy, but overtime they have become very limited in scope and gradually transferred to the hands of the Prime Minister e.g. the British Prime Minster has the power to declare war on another nation without consulting Parliament (but in practice, in recent decades Prime Ministers have tended to consult Parliament on matters of war, out of courtesy).
#2: With regard to your 2nd point; during the first lockdown in the UK (from 23rd March until 4th July); the Supermarkets (British food stores) didn’t hesitate in coming to the rescue. In the UK the different Supermarkets (normally competitors) set aside their differences and pooled their resources (food, supply chains, staff, and vehicles) and worked together to keep the supplies chains, and food delivery going; including stepping up their home delivery services so that people didn’t have to leave their homes to buy their food, but have it delivered to their doorstep. The infrastructure still exists, so scaling it back up as necessary shouldn’t be a problem.
#3: The UK is fully committed to replacing fossil fuel with Renewable Energy, and has been so since before 2012; so we are burning almost no coal now in the UK, and less than half of our energy in the UK is now from fossil fuel, with the UK’s dependency on fossil fuels declining by the month.
So industrial pollution is becoming less of a problem in the UK: Although the pandemic has helped, and has been good for the environment, and wildlife.This is welcome news indeed from the United Kingdom. During the lockdown in Nigeria, food supply is a severe problem. It was during the first havest season when fruits and vegetables are appearing in the markets cheaply. However, as all markets were closed, people can only get foods through a 'back-yard' approach. And if a supplier got caught, the stuffs were smear with fuel or rendered unfit for humans to eat in Port Harcourt city. So, yours is indeed humane. But I always pray for and commended my suppliers for all the risks their took getting stuff to clients. Thanks for the information on the governmental powers and fuel economy. It's something to be proud of.
That is awful in Nigeria, and in other poor countries around the world. I do feel guilty when I hear about things like that; but there is little I can do other than support good causes. Hopefully one day things will be different in Nigeria, and other countries facing similar problems.
I am proud that the UK is one of the leading countries in Research and Development for Renewable Energy, and making the switch to Renewable Energy at a reasonable rate; although as with all things we could do better.
Although our Government is taking the pandemic seriously, and has united the nation politically and socially in fighting a common enemy, in normal times it’s not a Government I support because I am a ‘Socialist’ and it’s a hard-right wing Nationalist (Conservative) Government. But at least for now we are all on the same side.
During the height of the pandemic in April, my Australian cousins were telling me that although their supermarkets (food stores) rationed food to ensure everyone got supplies, the one item that was in short supply was toilet paper.
In the UK, during the height of the pandemic our supermarkets limited supplies to three of each item per shop e.g. 3 loafs of bread, three containers of milk and three boxes of eggs etc. And for those who went to the shop for their food, rather than use home delivery, before opening the supermarkets (food stores) to the general public each day; the supermarkets were open to NHS staff (National Health Service) only for the 1st hour, and then just the elderly for the 2nd hour.
We opted for home deliver during the pandemic because it was safer (no need to go out); and ever since we still get our food home delivered, because it’s so convenient and safe.The Nigeria government at present make things harder for its citizens. As essential daily stuffs, for example fresh beef were not easy to come by. They become very expensive when available. Till to date, prices of foodstuff are still rising on a weekly/monthly basis. The quality and quantity of every manufacture item is reducing. For example, the famous Oxford Cabin Biscuit is a delight in every household. Before the pandemic and its lockdown, 5 pieces were the usual package for a cent. By March, it becoes 4, and now 3. The samething applies to all foodstuffs-bread, milk, sugar, and so on. Lately, the Federal government of Nigeria increased the prices of fuel and electricity tarriff. This has accelerate the cost of living, and further raise the inflation rate. Too bad for those with fix income. Seriously, #Nigeria is in darkness!
It does pain me that there are still parts of the world where things are so harsh. It reminds me a little of wartime Britain 1939-1945 (and the immediate years afterwards) when due to shortages and rationing spivs (petty criminals) operated the ‘black market’; selling food and goods in short supply at inflated prices.
However, during this pandemic we’ve had very little inflation, partly because profiteering is illegal in the UK; and in August the inflation rate was only 0.2% largely because, in trying to encourage Brits to go out and spend money, during August the UK Government paid the first £10 of each meal in a restaurant between Mondays and Wednesdays; about a 50% discount for a three course meal in a restaurant.Yours is the humane thing by a government to do. My Federal government has not spent a pound so far, not even my state government. A former VP and presidential aspirant Atiku Abubakar released the sum of 50 million Nigerian Naira to the federal government be share to its citizens. Other millionaires follow suit. Among them was a female billionaire who denotes one billion Nigerian naira(this can equate 35 million dollars). Now, I mean this morning or today 20 August, 2020 a simple question I qury my neighbors: "how much have you receive of the donations so far?" "You, how much have you received?" They fired back. Not a penny! And people are struggling for even two unbalanced meal a day. Charities from churchs will limit essentials to the very down throden in the society. May it not pain you. Peace!
The wealthy nations spent money they don’t have to cushion the effects of economic lockdown during the pandemic. Britain just borrowed the money on the International Markets (National Debt); which will take a couple of generations to pay back e.g. when Britain was on the brink of bankruptcy after the 2nd world war (1939-1945) the money it borrowed then to rebuild was only finally paid back just a few years ago.
Unfortunately the poorer countries don’t have the collateral to offer for borrowing such money on the International Markets e.g. financial security risk to lenders (investors). So it does put countries like Nigeria in an impossible position. So I can understand the lack of help from your Government, but it is good to hear millionaires digging into their pockets; but as you point out, what they can offer just doesn’t go far enough.
It’s in my nature to feel concern (feel for others). I might be an atheist, but I am a humanitarian (humanitarian atheist) and all life is precious to me; part reason why I’m also vegetarian.
Peace.Isn´t this a general problem in Africa? All donations don´t go to those who are supposed to be the beneficiaries. Way too much corruption, pockets to be filled all along the money passing chain?
Shouldn´t Nigeria be a rich country, being among the world´s largest oil producers?
No, i am not suprised from reading your comment. Certainly a sad story.
Nigerian economy is based on oil. Oil demand is down due to Corona. So Nigerian people may be hit twice: By the economic fallout and by the ignorance of the government to care.I doubt if this were the "general" partern in Africa. But unless comparison is done with a sister sub-Sahara Africa state or two, or say South Africa, there is no reason to think in the general terms. Nigeria, is described as the giant of Africa, due to her outstanding earnings in oil trade. But where is the money going? For example, the federal government of Nigeria in April 2019 released the sum of 2 trillion Nigerian Naira to all the 36 state governors to pay off all outstanding arrears of pensions and gratuity. And as a retired civil servant, I can speak if I've been paid my arrears and gratuity. But I and others are still wating desperately. Prior to the release of the 2tr., sums of money above 500 billion nigerian curency for 3 years- 2016, 2017, and 2018 for the same purpose was diverted by my state governor{see my tweets @Miebakagh57).
Governors in Nigeria easily get corrupted due to the constitutional doctrine of "immunity. Attempts has been made by certain pressure groups to get the clause removed bv it was opposed by the politicians, especialy the law makers, becuse of they ambition of becoming governors to embazzled puclic funds. Ghana, a sub-Sahara West Africa state is not in such a mess these days because of what flt. lft. Jerry. L did in beheading 4 corrupt military politicians. For 5 years after I and many of my work colleagues numbering into about a thousand retired, we still had to be paid our arrears and gratuities. In the past, oil prices has fall but covid-19 should not make it an excemption. Corruption is a political institution in Nigerian and the prsent day Nigerian politician cherish it.
Thanks for your remarks on corruption.
Back to Covid19:
Looking at the African continent with repect to the Corona virus, you find very low numbers on cases and fatalities (except South Africa). No matter: Nigeria, Uganda, Kenia, Kongo´s ... all have low to neglectable rates according to statistics.What is it about? Not testing? Not counting? Better prepared? Less vulnerable?
Does anyone have an explanation?I recalled in one of my threads "Test for Covid-19," 2 months ago you ask the question: "Miebakagh57, what type of test are you talking?" I respond its temperature test. With that said, it is clear no other tests is done. In the West and other European countries for example, virus and anti-body tests were being done in the millions daily. But in Nigeria, (I can't speak for other Africa countries), how to steal $10 million daily from the public fund, or hoard money meant to pay pensioner, or borrow morn than $100 billion from the Contributory Pensions Fund by a 'gang' of state governors, the office of the Vice President, the Central Bank Governor is the thing. Well let me add this as an historical reality. Western medicine is an emergency tool in Nigeria and Africa, excepting South Africa.
The poor Africans are very much at home in prepareing home made herbal remedies to prevent or treat diseases.
Boris is saying a lot of things... Hope it won't come to a circuit break.
There is uncertainty here in Spain too. The biggest problem is Madrid. Madrid having a Popular Party (Conservatives) ruling the city doesn't like to do the things that the government (run by the Labour party PSOE and the progressive party Podemos) is asking them to do. Money and freedom over lives and science.Thanks for the update on Spain. It is sad when Conservative (right-wing) Governments/Leaders/Parties put money and freedom above lives and science.
After four years of the UK nations (people and political parties) being bitterly split over Brexit (and they still are); it’s been refreshing to see all sides in the UK put party politics to one side to fight a common enemy.
Not since the 2nd world war (when the different political parties put aside their differences and formed a National Government) have we seen the UK so united. And quite remarkable considering that in England the Labour (Socialist) opposition party is supporting a right-wing Conservative Government; as are the Socialist Governments in Wales and Scotland. And even the hard right wing Government in Northern Ireland (DUP) is on-board in putting people lives and science ahead of money and freedom.
I think one factor that has made a difference is that Boris (Conservative Prime Minister) almost died of Covid-19; and since his recovery he’s taken it personal e.g. to him Covid-19 is his number one enemy.Here in Spain everybody has to wear a mask. On the streets, in buildings, in the car if you are not with a household member.
The exceptions are the sea and the mountains.
Most bars and pubs have extended their outside terraces.
I think it will get better, although there will be a second wave. This because the temperature is dropping. And so people will do more things outside.
Spain had a hot summer, too hot to work outside and eat outside. So everybody was eating inside at 2pm. Classic is Spain. A lot of family members eating together in a small space.
In the Netherlands, the temperature is dropping too, but it has the opposite effect, people start to do more things inside and there are more and more cases in The Netherlands. I think the same will happen in Germany and the UK.
Outside is the best as there are hardly any cases known with the infections starting outside.Yep, as you said, all the evidence indicates that it is relatively safe outside, especially if people respect social distancing. It’s indoors where the virus is highly contagious. It’s for this reason that in the UK masks are only mandatory in enclosed public spaces (including public transport).
Yes, with winter (flu season) approaching, as it gets colder Brits will spend more time inside; where the risk of infection is higher. Exactly how things pans out remains to be seen as we are in unchartered territory. However, the precautions we are taking to slow the spread of the Covid-19 virus will also slow the spread of flu virus.
Yes, we’ve had the taste of Mediterranean weather, and the siesta, when we’ve holidayed in southern France. It takes a bit of getting used to shops not being open in the afternoon. One time while there, when we wanted to buy tickets from the Tourist Information Office for Puy du Fou, we arrived at the Tourist Information Office just gone 12 noon, just minutes after they shut for their siesta, so we had to wait until they opened again at 4pm. It was a bit frustrating, but understandable (considering the heat); but being philosophical (British) we just went to the nearest beach and had a relaxing afternoon until the Tourist Information Office re-opened so that we could buy our tickets for the Theme Park.
Latest UK News (20th September).
The UK Government has just increased the fine for not self-isolating when testing positive, or when told to by the ‘contact tracers’ to £10,000 ($13,000).Boris’s ‘emergency powers’ (UK Conservative Prime Minister) came up for renewal yesterday.
A Rebel Group of about 40 Conservative MPs put in ‘Amendments’ to those emergency powers in an attempt to wrestle power away from Boris and give it to Parliament.
However the NEW Speaker of the House of Commons (Labour MP), who replaced Bercow (Conservative MP) as Speaker late last year, while ‘sending a warning shot across the bows’ of Boris’s emergency powers, warning him to be more considerate of Parliament; nevertheless blocked the Rebel’s Amendments on the grounds that at this time the Prime Minister does need the powers to make decisive and swift actions to combat the pandemic without being hampered and slowed by having to consult Parliament first.
Therefore, without any ‘Amendments’ from the Conservative Rebels, Parliament renewed Boris’s ‘emergency powers’ (rubber stamp) with no opposition e.g. Parliament effectively giving Boris a ‘vote of confidence’ in his continued effort to fight the pandemic.
What a difference between British Politics (civil and united) and American Politics (chaos and divided) in regards to fighting this pandemic: “United we stand; Divided we Fall”.Interesting how parliament is restricting itself. But majority is still with conservatives even if your set aside rebels, isn´t it?
Meanwhile in G. daily new infections reach 2.500 and active cases are at 25.000. Criticism is coming up on the contact tracking. Not necessarily because of administrative problems but because of unchecked and faulty personal information.
Some tourists coming back from hotspots wrote down names like "Angela Merkel" or "Superman". This address leaving for contact tracking is all old style paperwork (not much digital allowed). On one hand fear of big data, on the other hand unchecked addresses. Now they start to issue fines for faulty addresses (in restaurants both for visitors and the management).
Current findings are: 1 infected has contact to in average 5 other people. With an R-factor of 1,5 only 1 out of 3 contacts or more ignite spreading.
By now, 2 week survival rate is (1 - (2 weeks delta deaths / average active cases) = 99,5%. I choose 2 weeks because i think in this period most of the critical sickness happens. You can choose another period, the findings will remain similar.
That number for the US (comparison): 99,5% voila , same number.
That number for the Italy (comparison): 99,5% voila , again same number.
Apparently developed economies with equivalent choice of resources and no overload of respective health care systems seem to stabilize at the same death rate.
The key is the number of active cases. This is where the chaotic US differs from old Europe. Too bad the UK doesn´t provide reliable information on active cases.Yes, it’s one of those rare occasions when ‘common sense’ in politics prevails e.g. a recognition by Parliament that Boris can be more effective in taking swift action to fight the pandemic if he has the freedom to do so; recognition that swift action is vital, and confidence by Parliament that Boris is capable of making the right decisions; such as imposing tighter ‘social’ and or ‘economic’ controls at a moment’s notice, as and when required. Interestingly, in recent opinion polls Boris’s hard handed handling of the pandemic also has full support from 80% of the British population.
Yes, the majority of MPs in Parliament are Conservative; but the dissent to Boris’s strict actions to fighting the pandemic is coming mainly from the right of his party, about 40 hard-right wing Conservative MPs (about 10% of the Conservative MPs) who are more interested in the economy than health.
While, along with Boris, the rest of the Conservative Party and the Socialist Opposition Parties are more interested in saving lives.
Boris fully re-opened the economy (except for parts of the hospitality sector e.g. nightclubs) on the 4th July, when infection rates and deaths were low. And everything was doing fine until early September when the infection rate started to rise again, first slowly, then more rapidly; at which point Boris first imposed his ‘nationwide’ ‘Rule of Six’ e.g. groups of people larger than 6 in open or enclosed space was deemed illegal, with £100 fines, and £10,000 fines for organisers of large gatherings.
In spite of his efforts daily new cases has continued to rise sharply over the past few weeks from around a 1,000 a day to around 6,000 a day and rising; and deaths have risen from around 10 a day to an average of 40 a day (and rising). So consequently Boris is (almost on a daily basis) imposing harsher ‘Restrictions’ across most of England; Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland are doing likewise. So now most of the UK (except for southern England) is now on very strict ‘social lockdown’; keeping the police very busy enforcing the rules, and issuing fines when necessary.
So Boris is now back on TV each day (Prime Time Viewing), flanked by his chief Medical and Chief Scientific Advisors, giving his daily broadcast to the nation; the Socialist Government in Scotland doing likewise.
This was their first broadcasts to the Nation a couple of weeks back; when the current spike started:-
• In full: Boris Johnson's coronavirus address to the nation https://youtu.be/uBtK538BAGU
• Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) coronavirus address to Scotland by the Scottish Socialist Government https://youtu.be/KfH_bJG2N-w
Testing which has increased from 100,000 in May to around 300,000 a day now; and set to be around half a million by the end of October was doing fine until the end of August e.g. 97.5% of results returned within 24 hours. That hit a hitch in September, as the pandemic started to spike again and demand for testing outstripped supply, so that only 30% of results were being returned within 24 hours throughout September; albeit, the Government has worked hard on the issues to get the fast turnaround back on track by the beginning of October; not an easy task.
The one bit of good news is that the Government’s NHS tracker and trace app was finally launched last week (after 4 months delay, due to security issues on Apple Smart Phones). The new app (after a few teething problems within the first 24 hours of release, which have now been resolved) is a big aid to the ‘contact tracers’ and helps considerably with contact tracing because it is an automated system.
The NHS ‘smart phone’ contract tracing app finally goes live: https://youtu.be/LrRaa16Q_mA
It is frustrating that the UK doesn’t provide reliable information on active cases; albeit the Daily TV Address to the Nation does cover some of this information:-
Boris Address to the Nation yesterday (30th September): Prime Minster warns of tough new restrictions with cases 'going in wrong direction': https://youtu.be/9ShZTTFFVl8Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying very hard ever since the pandemic break out. However, It seems the United Kingdom is the only country with a second wave of covid-19? I am also aware that due to this second out break of covid in the UK, a lockdown is again to be imposed. When is it coming?
Well actually Boris didn’t do that well at the start of the pandemic; he was slow in imposing the lockdown and quickly abandoned the testing programme. It’s only since he almost died of Covid-19 in April that he’s done all in his powers to combat Covid-19.
Also, the UK isn’t the only country with a second wave, it’s one of the last, we’re about three weeks behind France; most European countries are now battling a second wave; and the USA seems to be going through a third wave.
For the last couple of weeks the whole of the UK has been under a ‘Social Lockdown’ e.g. people not allowed to meet in groups of more than 6 (outside or inside) etc., and apart from southern England most of the UK are now under even tougher social restrictions.
The UK Government’s ‘Rule of 6’ Regulations were only introduced on the 14th September (being tightened considerably since, throughout most of the UK), which is just over a couple of weeks ago; but because of the time lags between cause and effect any early signs of the benefits of the ‘Social Lockdown’ is not expected to show for another week or two.
So it is currently a waiting game to see if Boris’s measures work; and if they do then an ‘economic’ lockdown can be avoided.
Potential good news is that data fed back from the ‘contact tracers’ yesterday indicates that Boris’s ‘Social Lockdown’ is beginning to work in that it suggests that over the past two weeks the ‘R’ value has fallen from 1.7R to 1.1R. If that is the case then we should start seeing that in the daily data being more positive soon.
To put it into perspective, the 2nd wave sweeping across Europe is small in comparison to the pandemic in the USA, in terms of both new cases and deaths.Agreed that Prime Minister Boris Johnson ill-health and his recovery make sense to him to be more active against covid. Certain persons can be indiferent to a cause or problem unless personal attack occur. Mother nature let this happen so the deaf and blind sense well. Contrast this with a case in Nigeria of the first covid-19 victim. He died. He was a minister in the cabinet of Prisident Muhamadu Buhari. He died. And he is probably the only one to get the president 'done' things. It seem the president was not happen. And when the lockdown was imposed in March, money donated 10.6 billion Nigerian Naira by well meaning millionaires/billionaires is not share. $1 is 380 naira on exchange. It was only recently that consideration was being given to it after government imposed higher tarriff on fuel and electricity. And donated covid money is still yet to be paid out.
The amount of money spent by the wealthy countries around the world to fight the pandemic, and the impact it’s had on their National Debts is staggering, for example:-
Up to the 8th September, UK Government had spent £210 billion ($270 billion); with as a result of the pandemic the UK Public National Debt topping £2 trillion ($2.6 trillion). Those figures are sure to rise further over the next six months; albeit at a slower rate.
I’m not sure how much the USA Federal Government has spent on Covid-19, but their public National Debt as a result of the pandemic tops $3 trillion.
So in comparison, the Government spending on the pandemic in Nigeria is pitifully small.Thanks for the spending comparison between Great Britain and the USA. These were significant sums of money. I have made a currency conversion and realized Nigeria Federal government has spent about a minimum of $3 billion. this is not something to be compare to the United States or Great Britain. America with a population of around 300 people, spending about $300 billion compare to Nigeria's 200 persons. Not that Nigeria has not the money. Nigerian politicians are very greedy, caring only for themselves, cronies, and nuclear families and distributing monkey nuts to the populace.
yes, it's tragic that the Nigerian Government doesn't seem to care that much about it peoples. No country has prefect democracy, but Nigeria certainly does have a long hard road ahead to rid its Government of corruption and begin to approach anything close to a true free democracy.
Latest (6th October)
Boris (UK Conservative Prime Minister) plans (Government Policy) to rebuild the UK economy and create new jobs and wealth in the wake of the pandemic, is not only stepping up the rollout of off-shore wind-power with the aim of making the UK self-sufficient in Renewable Energy by 2030; but also, is planning to bring forward the banning of fossil fuel cars in the UK from its current deadline of 2035 to 2030. Originally, just a few of years ago, the date for banning fossil fuels cars was 2040; but progress in building the EV Charging Points infrastructure, and the continued increase in popularity of the sales of EV cars in the UK has allowed the Government to make more ambitious 'Green' plans as time has moved forward.With the pandemic, a lot of reshuffling in the car industry is going on the EU, same as UK, if i understand right.
Baseline seems to be that automobile production is down, so resources can be assigned to E-mobility. As discussed earlier, the car makers may push ahead, but charging infrastructure and generating is stumbling behind.
The green idea behind will only be fulfilled if renewable energy is available in abundance. This is not the case, in no country, even those who argue they are already far down the green path.
Just to do some number crunching: Germany claims that almost 50% electricity is coming from renewable sources. Now it gets a little academic:
Renewable energy production is G per year: some 800 PJ (PetaJoule)
Road traffic energy consumption per year: some 2.500 PJ
If the country wants to go all renewable and include covering road traffic, we would have to boost renewables some 500%.
How many years did it take us to get where we are now? It will be very ambitious if we want to get anywhere close to that goal within 10..15 years. Sorry, the old engineer and consultant shines through.
Certainly this initiative would spike industry and technology, no matter UK, EU, anywhere on this planet. The next industrial revolution?Renewable or green energy is laudable. Our planet earth would be much safer.
The UK car industry (what’s left of it) have been switching from the production of fossil fuel cars to EV for the past few years anyway; albeit since the Brexit referendum a lot of British car manufacturers have relocated to mainland Europe anyway.
I can’t speak for Germany, but I do beg to differ for the UK. I can assure you (as seen with my own eyes) that the ‘charging infrastructure’ and the ‘National Grid’ are keeping up with the changes; the pace of change in the UK in recent years has been phenomenal.
For example:-
• Since 2012 the UK has been installing an average of one new off shore wind turbine per day.
• In 2012 coal produced 39% of the UK’s electricity.
• Today, coal accounts for less than 1% of the UK’s electricity (with wind power making up most of the difference); the last coal power station due to close in 2025.
From what you say it sounds as if Germans don’t charge their EV’s overnight at home, but instead rely on public charging points during the day?
In the UK the vast bulk of EV cars are fully charged at home during the early hours of morning, when demand for electricity is very low; but supply is still high because most of Britain’s Renewable Energy comes from ‘wind’ which blows 24/7.
The older offshore windfarms in the UK were 3.5Mw per wind turbine; in 2017 the wind turbines were 8Mw each (one turn of the blade producing enough electricity to power a home for 24 hours); the newest wind turbines are now 14Mw each.
• 8MW UK offshore windfarm in 2017 https://youtu.be/bCx92ADB138
• World's largest offshore wind farm takes shape on Yorkshire coast (2019) https://youtu.be/8kyNKRjfrzA
People in the UK predominantly use public chargers during the day to just top up, only if necessary; for most people it’s not necessary because they are making just short trips e.g. to the shops or to and from work. Charging points in supermarket carparks and at work are typically 20kw.
People only need to use the fast 50kw or higher chargers (at SHELL Petrol Stations, and on Motorways) if they are making long journeys.
Home charging (where most of the charging takes place in the UK) is typically 7kw, which does a full charge in 6 hours. The charging is done via ‘Smart Metres’ so as to take the power from the National Grid most predominantly when its most freely available, and at its cheapest e.g. from around midnight until 6am.
7kw overnight charge in the UK is well within the National Grids capacity e.g. quite modest compared to other appliances with high usage during peak times; for example:-
• UK showers, which are used in their millions first thing in the morning range between 7.5kw and 10.5kw.
• UK Cookers, used in their millions during the early evening are typically 10kw.
• UK kettles, which are most challenging for the National Grid at 7:30pm weekday evenings (peak time for electricity use) because of what’s known as ‘TV pickup’ in the UK, run at 3kw e.g. at 7:30pm, when popular TV programmes like ‘Eastenders’ or ‘Coronation Street’ ends, millions of Brits all put on the kettle at the same time; which causes a sudden surge in demand.
The key to ‘smart charging’ your EV at home are the ‘Smart Metres’ which in 2017 the Conservative Government committed to having installed in every home in the UK ‘Free of Charge’ by 2024. So far 28% of homes in the UK have had the ‘free’ smart metre installed; we had ours installed a couple of years ago.
The Smart Metres aren’t brilliant, but they are good; and they do help you to use less electricity and gas, and thus save you money on your utility bills. For example, from the living room I can see at a glance if someone has accidently left the cooker on etc., and it certainly makes you aware (real time) of how much electricity you are using if you leave the TV on unnecessarily e.g. leave it on while leaving the living room to do some cooking in the kitchen, so the smart metre does encourage you to turn off unnecessary appliances and lights.
And ‘Smart Metres’ in conjunction with the right EV charging installations can be used to intelligently control the best time for charging your EV overnight.
• An overview of the national smart meter rollout in the UK https://youtu.be/0Ids8jxTFts
• How can Smart Meters' Smart Energy Display’ help you save energy? https://youtu.be/c6DOm7whoiY
• CHEAPER Electricity Bills when charging your Electric Car using a Smart Metre in the UK: https://youtu.be/jBWSHZJ7NGcArthur, i was not thinking so much about the grid and where to charge the E-cars.
My concerns are about generating enough renewable electricity. There simply is not enough by far. If you don´t have renewables, you might as well burn natural gas in a power station to generate electricity. But that is worse (overall thermodynamic efficiency) than directly having a cars engine run on natural gas (like some of my former collegues do).
The whole E-mobility only makes sense with renewables.
To make my point clear: If Germany was to go 100% renewable for electricity and road traffic, it would need 250% x 200% compared to todays capability: That is 500%.
In the past decade with all the efforts made, Germany was barely able to increase renewables by 220%.In recent years this dynamics was slowing already (even with repowering of old wind turbines or more solar power).
I see the huge difference here and i can´t imagine how to close the gap of what we may want and what we will be able to achieve.
It is the privilege of politics to set up goals. They can say: We want to go to Mars with 2 liters of gasoline. Simply illusionary, not achievable. Same with electricity generation en large.
The last to worry about but not to forget will be the last kilometer grid, the connection your household. Once in a while you see E-cars charging at home. Doesn´t overload the grid. Now - I live in a street with some 80 houses. If only 40% of those houses would have 1 car each charge with 8 kW over night. (0,4 x 8 x 80 = 256 kW) this would overload typical modern 10KV/400V transformer stations with 250 kVA. Already 20% useage or some 50% load will make grid operators scratch their heads.
In G. politics and administration is aware of these problems. A lot of think tanks are seaching for appropriate solutions.
I can´t imagine that other countries including the UK won´t face the same problems. Smart meters only measure the different in/out power flows. They don´t generate electricity, if i may say.
Our household consumes some 2.500 kWh/year. A typical car charged at home and going 25.000 km/year will add 5.000 kWh. So on the microscopic scale of my house the same laws seem to apply that are good fo a whole economy.I think you're missing a major point here. Electric utilities must have the capacity to generate the maximum amount of power they see, not the average. If they see a 2 Mw need during the day, when industry and retail are all cranked up, but only 1 Mw at night when those facilities are closed, they must have the ability to generate 2+Mw - the excess capacity at night is not used but is still available as needed.
Some years ago my power company began to offer a payment schedule based, not on the total amount of kWh used in a month but on when it is used via "smart meters" they installed for anyone that wanted the plan. Power draw during their peak times, when the most power is being used, costs more than at their low times (night). This had long been available to major manufacturing plants but was new to the residential customer.
When I bought my plug in hybrid car, and installed a home charger, I switched to that new plan and my cost of power never changed...even though I used an additional 10kWh per day - I can instruct the car not to charge (even though plugged in) until off the "peak" times. Nor did the power generating capacity change for the power company (they didn't have to build additional generating plants) as they already had the capacity necessary. The whole point is to make use of that excess generating capacity when it is not normally being used - thus preventing the need for building additional generating plants.
So in your example you will still need that 2,500 kWh that you used for your home, plus and additional 5,000 kWh...that you will use when that aluminum smelter plant down the road is closed for the night and not needing it. That's the value of a "smart meter", at least in the US. It encourages use during those "off peak" times when the electric has excess capacity available. No, it doesn't generate electricity, but it allows and encourages the homeowner to save money with smart choices as to when to use power. In my case we wash clothes in the evening, shower in the evening or early morning and charge the car at night - all the big uses in our home are accomplished in "off peak" hours when it is cheaper and the electric company has the ability to supply power without additional generating plants.wilderness, there is the difference between Germany/Austria.. and the US.
In Germany off peak time is not during nightime, it is during the daytime. Because with daylight there is more wind and sun, there is an abundance of electricity for the useage coctail of now from March until October from 9:00 - 16:00. In this period of time electricity is cheap. At night, electricity is expensive. So how does this help costwise with your car charged over night?
I understand, before (renewable energy) it was the same in G. We even had electric heatings that would be charged at night with cheap electricity. No more today.
But anyways, future policies in Europe will not allow combustion engine cars within 10 to 15 years from now. These policies will be very hard to fullfil if already today we are struggling with 50% renewable while we would need 5 times as much.
E-cars powered by dirty (CO2 producing) electricity (coal, fossile fuels, natural gas) don´t make sense. Leaves it to nuclear power and renewable. As Germany has abandoned nuclear power since Fukushima, the only way is renewable. This may not be the easiest way to pursue, but there seems to be a majority consensus in our population.
Of course if countries go the nuclear power way, things may be different.Consider the whole home concept that Tesla is working towards.
Solar panels on a rooftop power the home during the day while also recharging battery storage (powel walls). These systems are large enough to allow the house to be self-sufficient, requiring no grid power from "dirty" sources.
The price for this has now become comparable to an electric bill, to have such a system installed, by taking a 20 year loan to make payments on (with costs going down every year)... so having such a system is now comparable to paying for grid power.
But it is likely that the cost of Grid power will continue to rise, as the (choose your currency) dollar continues to lose value, and the power companies continue to raise their prices.
But the self sufficient house powered by solar & battery will have a consistent cost for at least a decade, until repairs, updates or replacements are required in the second decade of the system being operational.
As technology advances and these systems become more common place, the costs will go down for installation and maintenance and become more affordable.
Much like cell phones, I think this transition has already begun, and those with the economic means are already buying such systems, but soon it should become more common... and once it does, it will only make sense for those with such systems to go EV... as EVs will practically be free to "fuel" and maintain (no engine components to repair/replace).
This of course will not work well in cities or densely populated areas where there is no ability to develop a "off-grid" individual system per "household".
What I believe is going to occur over the course of the coming decade is a clear divide between those who live in cities (heavily populated areas) and those who don't.
Those who live in cities, whether well off financially or not, will most likely not own a car and will rely on public transit or "uber" like transportation to get around. This may actually be something that becomes law in major cities... much like CA decided to be free of ICE vehicles by 2035.
Those who live in suburb and rural areas will most likely become independent and free from Grid power. They will be able to maintain a home energy system that will power their EVs and other equipment.I've had two solar cell companies visit and give their spiel. The bottom line is that I could provide all my power needs...IF I burned gas for heat, hot water, etc. But I'm totally electric (no emissions at all) so it can't be done. At this time, anyway - solar cells continue to advance.
There is also quite a question as to the environmental damage of producing those cells and their batteries; it would take many years to overcome that cost.
Plus, as you note, apartment dwellers do not have the option, although I wired one complex where solar cells provided the heat for the complex itself - common areas, hallways, etc.I would suggest you do more research, when you include power walls (batteries for nightime) a properly sized system will handle all your home's needs.
Just because the contractors you had out were not willing or able to provide such a system, does not mean they do not exist. More likely that that they are not licensed/capable of installing them.
https://www.tesla.com/solarpanels
As for the impact on the environment, much of these products are recyclable and or repurposed, the battery walls for certain are.
The arguments made against solar systems are of course heavily funded and backed by the current power industry that relies on people being dependant upon them for their profits.
The more people that become energy independent, the harder it is for power companies to support their infrastructure and make a profit.
Just like the more people who drive EVs... the less people there are to buy gas and oil. So the oil and gas industry works behind the scenes to denigrate EV technology.I have several problems with my home. First is a Mansard roof, making the area available for panels much smaller than normal (around 1/3 smaller). The South facing portion of the roof is partially blocked by trees (and cutting them merely increases the amount of power required for AC). I live in an area where there is no sun for much of the winter due to weather. Finally, there is often snow on the roof that either has to be melted off or the panels don't work.
All put together it means I need more cells than will fit on the roof. Easy to say that it will work, but when ALL the factors are considered, it just doesn't. In addition, the price was already high; add in Tesla cells, plus the massive batteries for a totally electric home that has no direct sunlight for as much as 2 months at a time, and it is totally impractical.I agree, your situation does not sound suitable to a rooftop solar system.
How much land do you own, perhaps you could cut out a portion of your property for a ground placed one?Just a rather large city lot. Around 1/4 acre. Not really suitable for ground based.
But one more facet I have to consider is that my cost for power ranges from 7-12 cents per kWh, depending on time of day and time of year (and most of my usage comes in at 7 cents, not 12). That's lower than almost anywhere in the US. Much of our power comes from hydro, which is free but for maintenance. This makes the payback period for solar simply untenable and is part of the reason I need so many cells - my cost of power does not reflect my usage very well...anywhere but where I live.
We have a fierce competion over here in Germany on solar power systems, the Tesla concept (with power wall) being the most expensive system. Payback period in our high price electricity society is 12-15 years at best for solar panels (household size) and more than 30 years for energy storage (like power wall), neglecting the limited load cycles of batteries. Having said this i don´t have any solar panel on my roof and definitely no battery.
But i do harvest solar energy on an (almost) professional base and sell electricit to the grid. In 2021 i add another 200 kW to my farm to have 0,5 MW solar power installed and harvest some 0,5 GWh /year. Business case pay back 8-10 years before tax, 4 years after tax because of large tax breaks in G. So i have some experience with renewables.
Analyzing the summer/winter and day/night intervals of my systems i came to the conclusion that battery capacity has to be incredibly huge to keep you off grid in winter time and the night usage of electricity is mostly overrated.
This story about charging your car with homebrewn solar energy will not work, because at night time you need to discharge to feed your house and you cannot fill your car. .. May be different for someone working night shift only ..
Even in high energy cost Germany, supply grid for electricity and natural gas is still very competitive. Payback period is way too long to make renewables really attractive for private homes. There is a lot of marketing to it and it needs some enthusiasm. Different story for professional harvesting.I am a little surprised at some of your comments; I’ve always regarded Germany in high esteem when it comes to engineering.
Speaking from a UK perspective; wind-power and solar-power within the past few years have definitely become the cheaper option for the home user. Because of the weird domestic energy supply system we have in the UK (set up by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s) domestic home users can select from whom they get their energy from and the source of that energy (it’s all a paper exercise rather than physically changing pipes and cables, but the end result is the same).
Therefore a couple of years ago I switched to getting my gas and electricity from Bristol Energy. Bristol Energy is a non-profit Energy Company committed to investing in Green Energy; they were set up by the Bristol Local (Labour Socialist) Government in 2015, as part of one of the green schemes set up by Bristol when it held the title of the ‘European Green Capital’ Award.
Bristol Energy gives you the option of where your energy comes from. Currently I’ve opted for their ‘Green’ Tariff’ which saves me about £300 per year because Renewable Energy in the UK is now cheaper than fossil fuel; currently, under the green tariff I’m guaranteed 100% of my electricity is from Renewable Sources, and 50% of my gas is ‘green gas’; much of it coming from poo power.
Bristol Energy (being a non-profit co-operative) reinvests its profits back into Bristol e.g. by supporting green projects to generate more renewable energy.
Bristol Energy: Our New Green Products Explained https://youtu.be/Nwo5zWAPWF8
Bristol Energy Helping Bristol become carbon neutral by 2030 https://youtu.be/8yLdAX3zLVQ
Poo Power by Bristol Energy https://youtu.be/m5iTvyWPaRg
We also have fierce competition in the UK, not just on solar power systems and batteries, but also from who supplies your electricity and gas on the National Grid, and from what source they get that power (a complex system set up by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s).
However, when it comes to payback period for solar panels and batteries in the UK:
• Solar panels pay for themselves within 10 years or less.
• The Tesla Wall power storage battery doesn’t really pay for itself (the savings are minimal); unless you use it in conjunction with home charging your EV; then the savings are greater.
• However the cheaper home batteries are becoming more widely available on the home market, and becoming more reliable, and they are a great saving e.g. they can pay for themselves within less than 10 years.
On both the solar panels and batteries, the technologies are improving year on year, they are becoming more powerful, more reliable and cheaper to buy over time.
These are all costs and considerations I’m currently evaluating because we are planning to install solar panels, possibly with cheap storage batteries, next year.Arthur,
solar panal technology is improving minimal over time. What is improving is the cost for panels. For everything else the typical inflation rate will apply. (My first system is from 2011, 1 kWp cost some 2.700,- Euro at that time, now i pay 720,- Euro net fully installed per kWp). Prices for converters are almost unchanged.
A solar system consists of panels and understructure, converters and grid connection (house connection). Panels get cheaper, but cost for converters and grid connection remain steady (at best). A typical household will only need 1 converter, no matter if 3 kWp or 30 kWp. Makes small systems considerably more expensive. You don´t get much below 1200,- Euro per kWp for a typical house roof system.
My quick and dirty calculation for Germany with a mix of self usage and grid supply gets you some 70,- to 80,-/kWp in revenues or savings per year and thus a long paypack period. At least in Europe households don´t consume enough electricity to benefit much from solar panels, even with smart home installations that switch on your washing machine if the sun is shining.
You may feel good, if you install a private solar system on your roof. But is brings a touch of enthusiasm with it.
In the past years i invested a lot of effort into isolating the house. Now the gas bill is 30% of what it used to be. I could reduce more (air or geothermal with heatpump), but at what cost and inconvenience (large isolated water tank).
My son in law has his house equipped with a solar thermal system on the roof, floor heating, wall heating, big isolated tank.. I had a good laugh when i saw 5 circulation pumps in his cellar. The pumps probably draw more electricity cost than the the natural gas bill is.
At least in Germany with all the energy saving and green renewable initatives the whole matter sometimes appears to be close to becoming ridiculous.Yep, I understand the points you are making; all very valid points. However, from our discussions there are subtle differences between Germany and the UK that might make solar panels a more viable option in the UK?
A couple of disadvantages in the UK over Germany are:-
• The UK gets less sunshine and less daylight time.
• The old generous feed-in tariff was abolished in March of this year.
However, a new (less generous) feed-in tariff is being introduced on the 1st January 2021. Under the new scheme you get paid market wholesale prices for selling your surplus electricity to your supplier, who then sells it on at retail price. So it’s less generous than the old system, but it still has value e.g. in using the Bristol City Council (my local government) calculator on their website for my particular property, the money that I would get back on the new feed-in-tariff would be around £77 per year.
In spite of the above, the annual saving on my electricity bill with solar panels will still be around 21.4%, which considering the high price of electricity in the UK is quite a considerable saving.
Prior to the 1980’s electricity was relatively cheap. Back in the 1980’s Margaret Thatcher (Conservative Prime Minister) privatised the electricity industry using the usual Conservative argument that it would make prices competitive through competition. In reality it was the reverse e.g. prices rose significantly as the electricity companies pushed prices up significantly, creaming off the profits for their shareholders. The net result is that the cost of electricity to the domestic user in the UK is double of what Americans pay.
Currently there are six big energy suppliers, and lots of small ones. I switched to one of the small ones a couple of years ago (Bristol Energy) because they are a non-profit co-operative energy supplier, and offer significantly cheaper tariffs because they are not creaming off profits for shareholders; albeit they still make a profit, which is ploughed back into ‘green projects’ e.g. investing in new Renewable Energy projects.
Bristol Energy - How to stand up to the Big Six Energy Suppliers https://youtu.be/uoxY5jut28A
On the plus side, since 2012 the Conservative Government has forced the energy suppliers to use some of their profits to make all British homes more energy efficient at no extra cost to the home owner; specifically:-
• All energy suppliers are legally obliged to install ‘Smart Meters’ in every home for free, no later than by 2024; we had ours installed a couple of years ago.
• All homes that are not insulated are entitled to free insulation. I insulated our loft when we bought our house back in the 1990s, but under the new scheme I had our walls insulated for free a few years ago.
• Up until last year all homes with gas central heating boilers over 10 years old were entitled to have them replaced for free; we didn’t qualify because ours was only 8 years old.
• Any house that wasn’t double glazed were also entitled to free double glazing, but as most homes were double glazed, not many homes qualified for that anyway.
Current proposals for future schemes include free underfloor insulation for older homes.
Other provisions by the UK Government to reduce energy usage in the home was the phasing out of old lighting for energy efficient lighting e.g. we can no longer by 60w or 100w bulbs; we can only by 10w bulbs now.
Another twist of events was in 2017, when Renewable Energy in the UK became cheaper to produce than fossil fuel, but the energy suppliers did not reduce their prices to the consumer to reflect the fall in the costs. Consequently, this caused a bit of political storm in Parliament, which prompted the Conservative Government to put pressure on the Energy Industry to voluntarily reduce prices; which they did not do. Therefore, on the 1st January 2019 the UK Conservative Government introduced an energy price cap to stop prices from rising further.
If/when Labour (Socialists) get back in power, their policy agenda is to re-nationalise the energy companies.
As regards your first point “solar panel technology is improving minimal over time”; yep that is true to a point, although the technology is improving with time. Currently, as I’m ploughing through all the options for us, the two main types commonly available in the UK are monocrystalline panels and polycrystalline panels. The monocrystalline panels are more efficient, but more expensive; and of the two types there are currently 10 different models (manufacturers) that have high rated reviews (each with their pros and cons on cost, performance, power and size etc.) that I need to carefully study to help me make a final ‘informed’ decision next year.
But for the UK, the game changer are the cheaper storage batteries that are now commonly available that, in conjunction with solar power and smart meters, can make a big difference, significant saving, on electricity. Some systems gives the flexibility (option) to also recharge the batteries from the National Grid overnight (early hours of the morning) when electricity is cheap; and potentially sell power back to the National Grid if when the grid needs it. This aspect is an emerging technology, so it’s not currently available on all installations, but progress is being made a pace.
Another change that’s on the horizon in the UK is the Government’s desire to phase out the current gas central heating over the next 10 years with something that is more energy efficient and greener; and suitable/practical for small British homes e.g. either by replacing natural gas with green hydrogen, or switching from gas boilers to electric boilers etc. No decision has been made yet as the Government is currently in the middle of a feasibility study; albeit, all current considerations are focusing on minimal disruption to the home e.g. solutions that would require just replacing the boiler itself, rather than the whole system (radiators) in the home.Interesting read on how energy is provided in Britain.
For us in G. it has become a challenging sport to hop from one energy provider to the next with hundreds of tarrifs and bonuses available.
Personally i joined a non profit "club" some years ago that scans the market and organizes provider change for you according to your needs.
Since i had modernized our house, i had to switch to other providers because with lower consumption the base connect fee became considerably high. Must be similar in the UK.
First energy saving enabler is to consume less. All lighting is LED, some is auto On/OFF. Consumer electronics is energy efficient. Leaves the only real energy consumers to the kitchen and the washing machine/dryer.
I remember many years ago when our son organized gaming parties and 10 kids moved in with their gaming computers. I scratched my head about how to hook up the kilowatts without blowing the fuses. But this is long over.
We have natural gas condensor boilers for heating and hot water. They achieve efficiencies above 100%, utilizing the gas to liquid phase transition enthalpy of natural gas, and you don´t need chimneys any more, all you have is water coming out of the exhaust (and some CO2).
As long as Germany´s electricity generation is based on CO2 producing technologies (no more nuclear and only partly renewables), it does not make sense to abandon natural gas from house heating.
For energy saving we are closing in on the law of my favourite Italian engineer and economist Vilfredo Pareto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
We already achieved close to 80% in our home. The last 20% get tricky.Yes, switching energy provider, and choosing the best tariff for you, if you try to do it yourself is a minefield. However, the two things that these days make the process easy in the UK are:-
• The launch of Uswitch in 2000, and
• Government Legislation about 10 years ago.
Uswitch is a free UK-based price comparison website that allows consumers to compare prices for a range of energy, personal finance, insurance and communications services. It was founded by George Mountbatten, 4th Marquess of Milford Haven in 2000; and has since been given full approval and backing by the UK Government watchdog.
I’ve used the website several times for various purposes, and it makes life easy e.g. all you do is provide the website with the basic data it needs, and it does all the number crunching for you, and gives you recommendations with links. Once you press on the link (recommendation) of your choice you’re automatically put in touch with the company you want to switch to, and then that Company does all the Admin work for you to make your switch happen.
The Government Legislation guarantees your transfer is free e.g. no changeover fees, and no penalty fees etc., it also makes it a legal responsibility of the Company you’re switching to, to do all the Admin work on your behalf, and it makes it illegal for the Company you’re leaving to try to block your move. Under the law it’s the responsibility of the Company that you are switching to, to contact your current supplier and make all the arrangements on your behalf.
Also, under the law, your energy supplier have a legal obligation to notify you at least once a year to tell you if you are on the cheapest tariff for your needs, and if not to make recommendations on what the cheapest tariff is for you. Whether people then follow that advice is up to the individual, but not to do so is foolish.
Yep, first energy saving enabler is to consume less, and that’s where I find our ‘Smart Meter’ so beneficial e.g. using the data it supplies helped me to reduce my electricity consumption by a good 5% without reducing home comfort in any way. Also, we can only get low energy 10w lightbulbs these days (to replace the 100w & 60w bulbs) in the UK, which does make a difference; and for the front porch we replaced our 60w bulb with a 4w LED light.
Auto on/off lights haven’t taken off in the UK, but a lot of modern appliances e.g. TV automatically power off if left unattended for x hours.
Yep, all new consumer electronics are now energy efficient.
And yep, in the UK the real energy consumers are predominately kitchen appliances such as cookers, microwaves, kettles, dishwashers and washing machine/dryers etc.
Your point about running 10 gaming computers got me thinking for a moment. But after some thought, in the UK it wouldn’t normally be a big problem in that 10 gaming computers would be about 6000w total, and in the UK each ‘ring main’ circuit can take up to 7200w, and in our house we have three ‘ring main circuits’, one for downstairs, one for upstairs, and one for the kitchen. So using the downstairs ring main, which doesn’t really have much on it of any great power consumption, other than the TV equipment, would handle 10 gaming computers; albeit it would be taking the circuit and main fuse for that circuit close to its limits.
Wiring a Ring Circuit (UK) https://youtu.be/o8Tu8uhVGoY
It sounds as if the natural gas condenser boilers for heating and hot water in Germany is the same thing as the combi-boilers we use in the UK, which is:-
• Natural gas (methane) and cold water from the mains go into the boiler.
• No pilot light these days as they automatically ignite (electronically) when hot water is required.
• Heats up the water for the taps and radiators as and when needed (instant heat), hence no water tanks.
• About the size of a small kitchen wall unit.
I agree that once in storage and in use, the pollution from natural gas (methane) is minimal. However, it’s in the extraction of natural gas from the ground that raises some concern e.g. the amount of gas that escapes into the atmosphere at that point, although half polluting than oil, is still nevertheless sufficient to contribute quite significantly to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
I also agree with the Pareto principle that you reference.
In respect to the UK Government, because natural gas is the least polluting of all the fossil fuels it’s the lowest priority in tackling climate change; and is being used as a stop gap in the transition from fossil fuels to Renewable Energy. With the longer term intention to gradually switch from natural gas to either green gas (which is also methane) and or green hydrogen etc., that is part of the last 20% that the Government is working on. And the UK Government is working on these issues now rather than leave it until a later date because of its desire (legal requirement) to be carbon neutral by 2050, and tackling this issue is going to take a lot of innovation and time.
Part of the UK Government’s outline planning towards slowly moving away from natural gas is a desire to find suitable, practical and achievable alternatives to natural gas for central heating within the next 10 years. Exactly what route the UK Government takes remains to be seen, but from past experience, once the Government comes up with a concrete policy plan change can happen quite swiftly. An example of how swiftly things can change is that back in 1980 over 90% of British homes were heated by coal, and the coal (back boilers) heated the water; ten years later over 90% of homes had switched to the natural gas combi-boilers for hot water and central heating. Likewise, most British homes went from single glazed to double glazed homes within ten years, around the same time period.
In conjunction with the above points, England and Scotland are sitting on vast volumes of untapped natural gas that could be extracted through fracking: Far larger than the natural gas fields that Scotland extracted from the North Sea since the 1970s. However, the Scottish (Socialist) Government has banned all fracking in Scotland; and in England, although the UK Conservative Government are not against fracking in principle, it has however in recent years passed Legislation that makes it impossible to commercially frack in England, with the result that the only private company that did try went bankrupt last year.
A lot can happen in ten years.
That may be the case in Germany.
The system I have set to be installed from Tesla meets my home's needs, including the charging of one vehicle, the cost priced out over 20 years, is the equivalent of what I would pay for electricity.
So it is not a profitable solution to my needs, but it is break even.
The only benefits being I will not have to rely on the Grid (though I will still have a connection to it, that can be switched off) and should the Grid ever go out, my system will provide me with adequate electricity to go extremely long periods without it.
I need to qualify this however, as I live in Florida in a region that is sunny 90% of the time, and rarely sees a full day's worth of rain or clouds.
The only way the system will actually be a profitable investment, is if over the course of 5 - 10 years cost per kwh goes up substantially... which it very well may, if as I suspect, the value of the dollar depreciates 30% or more in the near future.Possibly there are 20 to 30% more sun hours per year in Florida than in central Europe. Probably brings some 15% more electricity harvesting. Keep in mind that even fully clouded there is electricity generated during the daytime. So you can only count the difference.
For my systems i had a year to year variation of some 7-8%. (2017 was bad, 2018 was sunny and very good, and so on). Also locations in G. with more stable weather conditions give max. 5% higher harvest. This might give some indication on how you would do in Florida.
And i also know when we have snowfall, because on those days the solar panels are covered and deliver nil.
1 kWp state of the art panels typically delivers 950 .. 1000 kWh per year in central Europe. In Florida it should be some 1200 kWh or above in the first year. There is a little degragation of 1.. 1,5% per year to be considered.
And - the systems are not completely faultless. 3 years ago i lost a 50KW converter. A capacitor battery had exploded, luckily within my 10 year warranty period. But i lost some weeks of harvesting on that particular line. Close monitoring of system health is mandatory (have it on my smartphone).
I have no experience with batteries as i don´t have any. Here in G. a lot of discussion is going on about charging cycles. A Tesla car doing 50.000 km /year needs some 100 - 120 full charges / year. How many days has a year? This is the number of charge/discharge cycles for a solar system. If the battery in a car lasts 15 years (the car will probably be broke before), the battery for your solar panel lasts ??? 5 years ??
Actually i don´t really know, but what i know is that technology does not simply jump to another evolutionary stage, only because it is fixed to the wall in a garage.
Having read all the comments, wilderness has stated eloquently what I was trying to say about using the smart meters to help use existing electricity more efficiently by utilizing the surplus power overnight when it’s plentiful and cheap. And in general I do side with both wilderness and Ken on their other comments.
In your further comments you’ve put your finger on one of the major differences between Germany and the UK; namely that Germany is more reliant on solar energy, and the UK is more reliant on wind power. Therefore, while the off peak time in Germany is during the day due to the abundance of solar power; in the UK the off peak time is in the early hours of the morning because demand for electricity at that time plummets, yet the wind power doesn’t.
I do acknowledge that ultimately a lot more Renewable Energy and better energy storage systems will be required both in the home and on the National Grid to meet the challenges ahead; and to meet those challenges the dynamics in a holistic approach in the UK is gathering pace.
I’ll cover some of these points below:-
More Efficient Use of Existing Power
As wilderness said for the USA, in the UK we currently have an abundance of spare energy in the early hours of the morning e.g. from midnight until 6am, when people are asleep, but when the wind still blows; hence when electricity is at its cheapest (off-peak tariffs). Smart Meters help people to utilise that cheap electricity to charge their EV overnight to utilise the existing energy supply more efficiently. There’s enough slack in the system to accommodate millions of new EV car owners, by utilising the spare capacity overnight (off-peak) without the need to build more wind turbines for a good few years yet.
Wind Farms
The UK is particularly well placed for wind power. The UK is surrounded by sea in a part of the world where it’s always windy at sea.
The UK is installing on average one new wind turbine per day; and there is the capacity for a lot more wind farms than we’ve already installed.
Each generation of wind turbine is much bigger than the previous and new technologies are allowing us to site them further and further out to sea.
One of the latest projects, due to start next year and be complete by 2024, is the expansion of the Dogger Bank windfarm using 14Mw wind turbines. The new extension will be the size of the Isle of Man. One rotation of just one wind turbine giving enough power to supply the needs of one home for two days; which when completed will supply 5% of the UK’s energy needs.
Also in the pipeline is a joint adventure by the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Norway (engineered by the Dutch) to build an artificial island on Dogger Bank (in the North Sea halfway between Britain and Norway) which on completion, in about 2027, will supply enough electricity for up to 100 million homes in Northern Europe.
World's biggest wind farm: Dutch to build artificial island and wind farm in North Sea (Dogger Bank): https://youtu.be/D08KztwtQYA
Wave & Tidal Power
The UK is well placed in that it has one of the highest tides in the world.
Wave & Tidal power is still a new technology, in its early stages of ‘Research & Development’. Scotland’s seas are an ideal test bed for developing the technology, and therefore various project trials by Scotland, the Dutch and other European countries are currently taking place off the coast of Scotland.
One proposal in the pipeline for using the emerging technologies in tidal power is to build the world’s first tidal lagoon power plant in Wales:-
Tidal Lagoon Swansea Bay, Wales: https://youtu.be/u_nB-7gc_Ws
Energy Storage on the National Grid
Energy storage, not just for homes with solar power, but for the National Grid, is a key factor.
Obviously, as Ken mentioned, battery storage for homes is becoming more common place. You have the expensive Tesla batteries, but cheaper more cost effective options are becoming more widely available e.g. my energy supplier are currently running a two year pilot scheme to test cheap home storage batteries for potential rollout to its customers.
As previously mentioned, in the UK we also have four hydro-electric storage batteries on the National Grid e.g. electric mountain, that can within 20 seconds supply huge amounts of additional electricity when needed, providing full power for up to six hours in any 24 hour period.
However, one emerging technology which is beginning to have a big impact on the UK is the development of Green Hydrogen as a storage battery for National Grids.
Research and Development into ‘Green Hydrogen’, which is being carried out in in England, Scotland, Utah, UAE (United Arab Emirates), Australia and China, is still in its early stages; but progress is being made and ‘Green Hydrogen’ is already being used on a big scale in a growing number of cities across Scotland and England, for example:-
• Aberdeen, Scotland is now using ‘Green Hydrogen’ to power all of its buses and Lorries.
• Scotland is at an advanced stage of producing the world’s first ‘Green Hydrogen’ powered seagoing ferries.
• The UK (behind Germany) is the 2nd country in the world (outside of China) to commercially develop the green hydrogen train.
The UK started pilot schemes in 2016 for using green hydrogen as batteries on the National Grid.
Energy Storage (batteries) in Green Hydrogen for future use on Smart National Grids: https://youtu.be/f6_OVfrc_5A
Green Gas
A growing number of Local Governments in the UK (particularly in Scotland and Northern England) are, or already have, switching to Green Hydrogen to power their buses and Lorries.
Other Local Governments in the UK, including Bristol (where I live) are switching from diesel to ‘green gas’ produced from sewage and domestic food waste to power their buses. In Bristol the Local Government has given every household a brown bin to put all kitchen food waste in, which is then collected by the Local Government every week (along with the sewage) to turn into green energy to power the local buses; with any surplus energy left over being feed into the National Grid.
In this respect, over the past 12 months I’ve seen virtually all the diesel powered buses in Bristol disappear and be replaced by buses running on ‘green gas’. Bristol is also set to ban all diesel powered cars from the city centre as from March 2021.
Railway Network in the UK
The UK started to switch from diesel trains to electric trains in 2009. The electrification of the rail network has been slow and costly, and to date only 38% of the rail network has been electrified.
However, last year the UK became the 2nd country in the world (outside of China) to start commercially developing Green Hydrogen Trains. The advantage of green hydrogen trains over electric is that they will run on any rail line regardless to whether it’s been electrified or not. Therefore the current Government policy is gradually to replace the UK’s stock of diesel trains with green hydrogen trains.
Solar Energy and Home Battery Storage
Since 2012 (until March this year) we’ve had the same Government incentives in the UK for the take-up of solar panels as in Germany, but (for whatever reason) the take up in the UK has been slow e.g. only 6% of our Energy comes from solar power.
However, albeit at a slow rate, more and more people (ourselves included) are getting solar panels, so that percentage over time will grow slowly. However, we’re less likely to face the problem you’ve experienced in Germany to the same scale e.g. the increasing use of batteries to mitigate against only having power from solar during daylight hours; because cheaper, reliable, alternatives to the more expensive Tesla batteries, are becoming more common and popular in the UK.
Therefore, increasingly, when people get solar panels installed in their homes, they are also opting to have storage batteries installed at the same time. It doesn’t mean that people become 100% self-sufficient, but it does take the strain off the National Grid, day and night. Plus the advantage that on occasions when the storage batteries are fully charged during the day any surplus is fed back into the National Grid.
Future Proofing
The Home Smart Metres and the Smart Grid technologies being developed in the UK does allow for the potential for the National Grid to tap into people’s home storage batteries as an emergency backup storage system for the National Grid itself (Emerging Technology).
I know you are sceptical about the robustness of the National Grid in the UK; but this video is an example of the lengths the UK Government will go to ensure that even the most remote parts of Britain are connected to the National Grid: In the video below, re-connecting a small village of just 11 homes in the middle of nowhere.
Restoring mains electricity supply to remote Cumbrian village https://youtu.be/idd2PDzppp0
I have been reading all the comments on renewable and green energy with keen interest. And then energy from 'poo' or shit? How interesting! The West, and almost all the European countries, China, Japan and India, has all they energy in varied form. The first ever energy scheme in Nigeria, is the Electric Corporation of Nigeria, set up by the British Government, which is a public utility. In ater years, especially after the Nigerian civil war, it becomes the Nigerian Electricity Power Authority, or NEPA. It is said that too much mismanagement and inefficiency make the government sold NEPA to private venture. Actualky, it was a political ploy to enrich few pockets. That said, is it any wonder that the puclic were now calling on the government to restore back NEPA as a public utility?
Certainly, NEPA receive its source of electricity supply from the Kaiji Dam, an hydro-electricity turbine. The present Power Holding Company of Nigeria is a profit generating and gathering body for it's political masters. For example, electricity tarriff was increase last September along with fuel price.
Yep, the same thing happened in the UK in the 1980s when our Conservative Government privatised the energy industry. And like Nigeria prices sky rocked as the Energy Industry creamed off the profits for their shareholders.
That’s why I switched to a small independent non-profit energy company a couple of years ago, not only are they cheaper because they are not out to make huge profits for shareholders, but also any profits they do make is invested in ‘green projects’ including new Renewable Energy projects.
Albeit, when Labour (socialists) gets back into power, their policy is to re-nationalise the energy industry.
Yep, poo power is becoming a big thing in the UK, especially in Bristol (where I live); below is a couple of other videos on the subject.
• Sewage waste in Bristol used to make green gas https://youtu.be/PUpvAfWI_GA
• The UK’s first food and poo-powered bus https://youtu.be/x2R_MaWFABo
• Bristol green gas (made from sewage and food waste) powered bus refuelling station opens: https://youtu.be/QV4VEprPfosArthur, it is a very interesting feedback on my post/comment. And I am very enlighten on how your Britainia or Britainica government in general, and Bristol government specific handle renewable energy. I am beginning to reason that had Nigeria continue adopting the British Parliamentary system of government, she would by now practicing renewable. It seems also from the tone of your comment that small private company other than Bristol Energy, are participating in the venture. On a small scale, what is the minimum of such a technology?
I’ve focused on Bristol, because that is where I live, and because Bristol is a Local Governments who is committed to becoming ‘carbon neutral’ by 2030; 20 years ahead of the National Government’s Target.
But Bristol isn’t the only local government in the UK striving to become carbon neutral quickly; many local governments throughout the UK have their own schemes and projects to replace fossil fuels with Renewable Energy and to implement other schemes to reduce their ‘carbon footprint’.
I’m sure that if Nigeria had managed to maintain a less corrupt government that it would now be making more effort to combat Climate Change, just as many countries around the world are doing.
Yes, combating climate change isn’t just the preserve of national and local governments and large private companies; everyone can play their part, for example:-
• Some farmers in the UK install their own wind turbine on their land, to feed electricity into the National Grid, as a way of earning money.
• Co-operatives (non-profit), often set up by local communities in some cities and towns throughout the UK, have installed solar panels on buildings within their community to benefit the local community.
• And many universities throughout the UK are involved in R&D (Research & Development) of new technologies in Renewable Energy e.g. we have two universities in Bristol who both are involved in various ‘green energy’ research projects.
• Also, because new technologies (R&D) has the potential for creating job and wealth in the future, many small (and large) businesses are investing in the research and development.
Even as an ‘Individual’ people can do lots of small things to help reduce their ‘carbon footprint’ e.g. switching appliances off when not needed (the Smart Meters are good at helping in this); buying local produce when possible (to reduce travel costs to the environment); Insulating your homes (to cut down on heating costs); eating less meat etc.
The bottom line is that big or small; every effort to reduce your carbon footprint helps.
Highlight of some of some of the small Green Projects in Bristol in 2013: https://youtu.be/K9hGttzIaOMI understood all the points. These are laudable. It is commendable that Bristol and the rest of the local governments in England were venturing into green and renewable energy. I cannot compare this with Nigeria's state or my local government which is attach to the apron string of corrupt political party. I have not heard nor read the Nigerian Federal government taken significant steps to combat climate change, although some 20 years ago, the government fought gas flare, and cmvert same exporting to America and other markets. Co-operatives are other aprons of political parties in power. These dance to the masters' tone. As for R&D by public universities, it is hardly fund by government. These days, private universities are begging funds for R&D. Nigeria is still using hydrocarbon fuel in any capacity at 100% for cars, generators, electricity production, aviation, and kitchen. Wastes are usually burnt or dump into the river.
Yes it is a sad state of affairs in Nigeria.
Agreed. What a fruitful discussion. I think I can later instal solar electricity on my house I build if the cost is fair on my side. I mean getting the gears, installation, and marketing/distribution.
Many good things is being said about the solar power system, whether in Germany or the United States. But I realized that solar energy is becoming so universal. The present discussion has digress from covid-19 to green or solar energy. And this is an interesting aspect of a conversation before it becomes or break the monotony. In Nigeria, solar energy is profitable for charging your cell phones and or led touch. It is on the high side for big international commercial banks, whose electricity needs has never been meet by NEPA in her later years when the waterfalls at Kaiji Dam become low, or the inadequante power supply of PHCN. In Nigeria also, a person can buy a solar power system for just $10 +, place the tool in the Sun, and charge his/her radio, touch, phone and other personal aid assistant.
The position in Nigeria seems under control when compared with England or Germany. It equally looks relax. Apparently, the daily statistics being published by the Nigeria Centre of Disease Control and Prevention is false positive. It is like a time bomb waiting to explode. With no serious tests to detect the covid-19 virus, except the temperature tests that is still current when you enter a bank, a big mall, or most public places. I can't imagine a pandemic like CV19 is under control in such circumstances. Heck, Nigeria, is in trouble. Lately written off as the 10th poverty strike countries of the world, its peoples were really hungry. Covid foodstuffs provide by well meaning private concerns since March 2020 were still being hoard by governors and the political associates, prompting an outcry that governors are thieves. The president of Nigeria, whether dead or...
Yeah, it sounds like a cover-up by the Nigerian Government, who are just ignoring the pandemic, just like other Dictatorial Leaders e.g. Trump and Brazil etc. And as you said, just like a 'ticking time bomb' e.g. the virus spreading silently because of the lack of a proper testing programme; just like the USA.
I am afraid so. The rule of 6 do not mean anything to a Nigerian. Either he/she is ignorant of such a rule. Socially, government allow gathering of not more than 50 persons and that is at burial functions. Yet, poeple capitalized on this leting the crowd to over-spread 50+ or in keeping with traditional practice. They is no police supervision, report, or arrest in such case. The worst scenario is a boy or a girl of 10 plus will start playing a game or video on a phone. A company like a tinned sardines will began to gather. They will not remember covid. Neither will parents or guardians remind such of the virus. Generally, 2 or 3 meter distance is hardly practise by adults except in place like banks.
Yeah, I gathered that from your previous comments.
People need a good Leader (Government Leadership) to unite the nation and to follow in times of crisis like this e.g. just as Winston Churchill did during the 2nd world war.Good old Wiston Churchill? Yes. I think that a political person who likely copy Wiston is retired General Mathew Aremo Olusegun Obasanjo. During his terms as military head of state, and civilian president respectively, Nigeria fair better. Corruption, was brought under control under Nuhu Ribadu, the headman of the Independent Corrupt Practice Buruau was feared. When General Obasanjo complete his terms of service, many politicians hiding under the Immunity Clause of the Nigerian Constitution fled Nigeria. For example, Chief James Ibori ran to Great Britain, he was arrested, tried, and imprisoned by Her Majesty Government. Britain later sent Ibori to Dubai for further trail and imprisonment.
Authur, you're always welcome. Enjoy the day.
or alive, or is a clone last week order all governors to empty the "governor warehouse" where covid palliatives were being hidden, and recently found they way into the markets for sale!
- Marisa Writesposted 4 years ago
0Australia and the US had their first cases at the same time. President Trump had the right reaction - he closed the borders. But he didn't go far enough. Australia closed its borders at the same time - to everyone. Only citizens and permanent residents have been allowed free entry to Australia since then. Everyone else must justify why they need to enter, and many are refused.
Everyone who arrives from overseas must serve two weeks in quarantine, being regularly tested. Testing is taking place in the community too, one of the highest rates of testing anywhere in the world, to catch and quarantine any virus that escapes.
As a result, Australia has had a total of less than 30,000 cases. That's total, since March. We've had less than 1,000 deaths. Yesterday, we had 6 cases in the whole country. New Zealand took the same approach and have similar numbers.
The border restrictions are not expected to ease until mid-next year at the earliest, although freedom of travel with other covid-free countries will commence.
It isn't easy for small countries like Australia to live without access to the outside world, but we're doing fine. Our economy is doing better than many European countries who didn't close their borders. The US is such a large country, I think it could easily have survived with hermetically sealed borders. Such an opportunity missed.Thanks for your feedback Marisa. It’s good to hear from you; very informative.
Yep, I’ve got cousins in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia who we met last autumn when they made a two months tour of the UK. I keep in regular contact with them; and as you said, Australia has done an excellent job at keeping the pandemic under control; lessons which would have benefitted the USA in particular, and some European countries to some extent.
The only major problem our Australian cousins have told us about the pandemic in Australia is the chronic shortage of toilet rolls they had during the start of the pandemic back in March/April.This clearly shows one of the problems Trump had right from the beginning: when he shut down travel from China the screams of outrage were herd all over the country. Indeed, over much of the world: Europe, the CDC, WHO, everybody was screaming that he shouldn't do that. That he was a racist, that it was unwarranted and that he didn't have the authority to do it. Much the same, then, as the reaction when he stopped travel from middle east countries supporting terrorists but refusing to vet their travelers.
And later on he was taken to task with cries that he should have banned travel for Americans in China, diplomats, scientists - everybody travelling from China. The problem is that Trump can do nothing right, that every action he takes is automatically wrong because it is from the evil, dreaded Trump.Ha ha ha! These did not like and will never like or see any good thing about "Real" Donald Trump.
Come on, you know better, wilderness. Handling a pandemic has little to do with travel restrictions. So - yes - the Trump administration has to take the blame. It is void to repeat what i stated many times in multiple discussions about their really poor management.
What is even more telling is the lying of Trump and his kin about their role in combatting the disease. Recent example the Phizer anouncement. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/so-is-pfizer- … uGB-2yxlFZ
The Trump team claimed the vaccine success to be part of their warp speed initiative. But Phizer never participated in operation warp speed. Actually development of the vaccine and funding came from Germany (BioNtech). The BioNtech CEO said they had started vaccine development in January and by end of March they already had 20 vaccine candidates ready for mass testing. This early start paved the road for the current status.
When did operation warp speed start? In April? Much too late - that is what characterizes a lot of Trumps responsibility. Don´t protect a guy with a very, very long nose.Interesting you should mention BioNtech, I was fascinated in watching an in-depth report on one of the British TV News Channels (UK SKY) just yesterday that featured BioNtech and their funding and development of the Phizer vaccine, which also focused on the couple who founded the Company that's shot them to fame and wealth, in spite of their modesty.
Facts First: "Pfizer's vaccine progress is certainly not solely attributable to the Trump administration's Operation Warp Speed public-private partnership program. But it was not accurate for Pfizer to suggest that it is operating entirely apart from Operation Warp Speed; the company has a major agreement to sell at least 100 million doses of its vaccine to the federal government, and Pfizer acknowledged in a Monday statement to CNN that it is in fact "participating" in Operation Warp Speed through this deal. Also, at least some independent experts say the Trump administration deserves partial credit for Pfizer's progress.
Here's a look at our recent fact checks.
It's true that Pfizer, unlike some other pharmaceutical companies, did not accept federal money for research into a coronavirus vaccine. Pfizer, unlike these competitors, is not getting payments upfront even before proving its effort has been successful.
In response, Pfizer spokesperson Sharon Castillo provided a statement that said the company is indeed part of Operation Warp Speed.
"Pfizer is one of various vaccine manufacturers participating in Operation Warp Speed as a supplier of a potential COVID-19 vaccine," Castillo said in an email. "While Pfizer did reach an advanced purchase agreement with the U.S. government, the company did not accept (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) funding for the research and development process. All the investment for R&D was made by Pfizer at risk. Dr. Jansen was emphasizing that last point."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/politics … index.htmlCredit where credit is due; but I think what people object to on this side of pond is the American Federal Government’s false claim of taking ‘ALL’ the credit for the speedy R&D (Research & Development) for effective vaccines; when in actual fact it’s been a joint worldwide effort, of which the USA, UK, Germany, France, China, Australia, and many other countries have participated.
‘Operation Warp Speed’, which was only set up on the 15th May, is a very fancy sounding name, aimed to inspire. The UK’s equivalent to ‘Operation Warp Speed’, which has been given the unimaginative name of “Vaccine Taskforce”, was set up on 15th April (a full month prior ‘Operation Warp Speed’; giving the UK a head start.
The UK’s Vaccine Taskforce, which has invested in 21 vaccine projects around the world also has the same goals and aims as the USA ‘Operation Warp Speed’; and I’m sure other countries around the world have similar tasks force’s.
With respect of the Pfizer vaccine specifically, while ‘Operation Warp Speed’ has advanced orders for 100 million doses (enough to treat 15% of the USA population), the UK’s ‘Vaccine Taskforce’ has advanced orders for 40 million doses (enough to treat 30% of the UK population.
And likewise most of the wealthy countries around the world all have advanced orders for the Pfizer vaccine; which is why (until production gets up to full speed) the initial batch of vaccine being delivered in December is being rationed to each country with advanced orders on a pro-rata bases relative to size of the advanced orders.
Granted, WHO was a bit slow on recommending travel bans, just as they were slow on recommending ‘mask wearing’; but they got there in the end, once the evidence was compelling.
Trump calling a travel ban from China so early (on the same day that Italy also called a travel ban from China) is to be commended, except it wasn’t a full travel ban, it just banned foreign nationals from entering the USA; Americans were still free to return to the USA, in their thousands. The problem with that was tens of thousands of Americans returning to overcrowded air terminals in the USA (super spreader of the virus), and then disbursing to their home States, taking the virus with them. While other countries, including the UK, put their citizens returning from China into quarantine for 14 days.
However, it did seem rather strange that when Europe became the epicentre of the pandemic Trump was slow on calling for a travel ban from Europe, and even slower in imposing a travel ban from the UK, even though the pandemic was as wide spread in the UK as the rest of Europe at that time.
Besides, calling an early travel ban from China, and then doing little else to fight the pandemic e.g. discouraging people from wearing masks, and ignoring social distancing etc., was irresponsible.
Trump would have had a lot more respect from the world (and may even had won the Presidential Election) if at the very least he had encouraged people to wear masks and social distance.This article may shed a little light on what is contributing to the spreading of the virus.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3
This is some scientific hardcore, better have college degree maths level.
The study has taken billions of cell phone location data to analyse mobility and their impact on spreading:
Takeaways:
- 85% of the spreading is from only 10% of locations.
- major sites for infection are restaurants, fitness centers, religious gatherings. While visiting a doctor or shopping in a departmentstore pose lower risks.
- Few people in one room reduce spreading (as if we didn´t know)
- Reduced mobility also reduces spreading.
- even though the model is based on best fit (linear regression) evaluation, projected case development is much closer than older, simple models (page 15/16 for comparison)
A lot more said about income to spreading correlation and other social implications.
The study lacks the investigation of 2 age groups (kids and elderly) as they are not necessarily using cell phones and thus produce less data.
Nothing said about mask wearing. (Cell phone mobility data obviously does not contain the information about mask wearing).
Imho the article is valuable, however the impact of in class teaching is not investigated. In class teaching is a major source now in Germany, as half a million students are either infected or quarantined and only 30% of public schools maintain regular courses. Also the study contradicts to investigations in Germany that showed no spreading significance for cafes and restaurants.
Anyways, learning more and knowing more does not prevent from the pandemic being out of control, not in Europe, not in America.Yep, most useful to any Americans reading this, as the study was conducted in the USA e.g. findings relevant to the USA may, and I think do, differ from other countries.
For example, I was aware that major events such as weddings, funerals, religious gatherings and ‘Trump Election Rallies, and places like restaurants and fitness centres etc. are a major source of spreading the virus in the USA.
While in contrast ‘track and trace’ data in the UK has shown in northern England the major cause of the spread of the virus has been people visiting family and friends in each other’s homes. The difference being that in the UK social gatherings are limited to just 6 people in public and private, and in open spaces and in enclosed spaces; with the exception of weddings and funerals which are limited to just 30 (far greater restrictions than in the USA), and restaurants etc. in the UK have far stricter Covid-19 regulations imposed on them than in the USA; limiting the spread of the Virus in the UK in these areas far more than in the USA, and of course (in contrast to the USA) not many people are religious in Britain, and therefore not many go to church.
While, in northern England people socialise in each other’s home far more than they do in southern England; two different cultures. Hence why socialising in Northern England has been the major cause of the virus spread.
FREE Mass-Rapid Testing on Verge of Going Nationwide in UK
1. In September three different rapid test kits (all manufactured in the UK) were trialled in three different towns across England; with an accuracy of 98%, and results returned within less than an hour.
2. Last week phase 2 of the trials started in the city of Liverpool whereby (with the help of the Military, 2,000 military personnel) the NHS is mass testing the whole population in the city; half a million people.
3. Even though the Liverpool pilot trial has only just started Boris (UK Government Prime Minister) has decided, with the help of the military, to start rolling out the rapid mass testing across the whole of the UK: A Game Changer e.g. once the rapid mass testing programme has been fully rolled out it has the potential of mass-testing up to 10 million people a day.
The obvious benefit of such a mass rapid test programme is the ability to identify all those asymptomatic who usually go unnoticed, quietly spreading the virus, so that they can self-isolate and thus help to dramatically supress the spread of the virus.
Boris’s ‘Address to the Nation’ speech (followed by Q&A from the public and press) yesterday (9th November) covers the above in detail; starting at 3:45 minutes into the video: Link Below:-
In full: Boris Johnson warns of 'hurdles' for coronavirus vaccine in press conference: https://youtu.be/bP0pL11dg-0Covid Vaccine: NHS Ready for Pfizer roll-out
Today’s News from the UK (10th November):
The UK has an advanced order for 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine; enough to vaccinate a third of the population e.g. two doses per person.
However, due to initial rationing, all being well, the UK is set to get 10 million doses in December and the remaining 30 million doses early next year.
Therefore the UK Government is making provisional plans to vaccinate 5 million people in December (on a basis of those most in need being vaccinated first), and start to vaccinate the rest of the population as supplies become available early next year.
So that, along with the mass-rapid testing being rolled out across the whole of the UK very shortly means that by the time Biden is in a position to start doing something positive to combat the pandemic in the USA, when he takes power on the 20th January (action long overdue, due to Trump’s irresponsible inaction over the past 8 months) the UK will be well on the way to getting back to some form of normality.Two months ago, when students returned to university, Boris (UK Prime Minister) stated his desire that he wanted people to have a good Christmas, and as part of that desire he wanted to be able to get the university students back home to their families (parents and grandparents) without taking the virus back with them.
An early idea floated last month was to put university students into forced quarantine for 14 days before letting them go home.
However, today (11th November) the Government has announced that ALL university students (1 million students) will be given the new rapid-mass testing in early December, before they make their journey home, to minimise the risk of taking the virus home back to their parents and grandparents e.g. to be able to identify and isolate (for 14 days) just those students who are potentially infectious with the disease.
@Chriss57 and @Nathanvilli, thanks for the superspreader update. As said the study was conduct in the USA. What puzzled the mind was why such a result oriented test was not apply speedily in the USA. A country where the pandemic became a superspreader more than anywhere else in the world. Seriously, the only country in the world me think where the WAB rule apply is Communist China. Americans greatly cherished their freedom and independence of the mind. And so, forget about Potus not wearing a face mask, not social dirtancing and so forth. Americans has the opinion or mindset to compile with their doctors who knows better. Why did they linger and let the pandemic spread at an alarming rate?
In simple terms, the main problem has been Trump: For example, Trump discouraging people from wearing masks (made it a political issue) and ignoring social distancing etc., his election campaign rallies being a prime example of his reckless disregard for the pandemic.
Also (encouraged by Trump), many Americans are obsessed with their ‘wild-west spirit’; their innate belief that it’s their given ‘right’ to make personal choices e.g. their right to choose not to wear a mask, with no regard to whether that personal choice may harm others; which from a European perspective is a selfish attitude, because not wearing a mask does harm others.How loaded are treatment capacities?
Read about hospitals running out of beds, not to mention ICUs in the US. Same for the EU (France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands). Critical patient "import" to Germany picked up again.
Situation in G. is still normal concerning the hardware (ICUs, beds). Until now no cancelling of scheduled surgery. But manpower capacity is getting critical already.
What i didn´t know is that Germany created a strategic ICU reserve in August. We shall where that leads to and if it will be necessary.
Yes, I’ve also seen on the news in recent days and weeks that some hospitals in some States in the USA are reaching full capacity for beds, ICU’s and staffing; and that the situation is likely to get much worse in the USA over the coming weeks/months. Even in States, such as Michigan, where they’ve managed to maintain the pandemic quite well to date, the spread of the virus is beginning to grow exponentially, with increased hospitalisation and deaths.
Yep, similar story in the UK to Germany: In the UK, still sufficient spare capacity in resources e.g. medical equipment, beds and ICU’s because of all the Nightingale Hospitals built in Britain in April.
And contrary to Trump’s lies, where he claimed he ‘saved the day’ by falsely claiming he supplied the UK with ICU’s back in April; the UK actually massed produced its own ICU’s at short notice when British Manufacturing, including Dyson (vacuum manufacturer), car manufacturers and other British Industries switched to the manufacture of ICUs and other much needed medical equipment and supplies.
The main issue in the UK is staffing, which is having some impact on the NHS e.g. increased waiting lists for treatment etc. But it hasn’t affected my wife yet, who is in the middle of a series of tests & check-ups and regular visits to NHS Medical Consultants and Specialists e.g. her appointments are still proceeding on scheduled.What I'm hearing is that countries all over the world are spiking and running short of beds and personnel, including states in the US where masks and distancing are de rigeur.
But it's all Trump's fault because he "encouraged" the culture of the US in the individualism of the people and their dislike of the nanny state. Doesn't make a lot of sense.The Trump administration certainly did and does poorly manage the pandemic. The foremost outcome of the laissez faire policy is that people are very much insecure about what to expect in public places.
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/not-lo … 021-p566zk
This article refers the economic situation of two Scandinavian countries (Denmark with strict lockdowns and Sweden going mostly voluntary). Both show economic implications, but little difference in economic downturn albeit large difference in fatalities.
It looks like most of economic downturn is associated to private decision making of not going outdoors. 75% private decisions, 25% administrative measures. I admit that Scandinavia is different from the US, but the "hardcore" US study comes to similar conclusions. I had linked and mentioned the study earlier in this thread.
So this takes away much of legendary wild west mentality in the US. Freedom of choice makes people not only refusing masks, but drives people to stay at home and thus degrading economy. Especially if directives from government are contradictory, foggy and diverse.
Actually the peoples (stay at home) behavior is very rational. Can be simulated with tools from my favorite scientist https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Forbes_Nash_Jr.
If the Trump administration (and others on this planet) had done a little homework in "game theory", they would know how to counterreact on rational behavior of people in stress situations and come to less fatal policies. (It is 1 x 1 of management and leadership).Not disputing it’s a worldwide problem, nor suggesting that the world’s problem is Trump’s fault. The message I’m trying to convey is that the death toll in the USA could have been significantly reduced if Trump had at the very least encouraged people to wear masks, and social distance; and even more lives saved if mask wearing had been made mandatory, with strict rules on social gathering, enforced with heavy fines.
"The message I’m trying to convey is that the death toll in the USA could have been significantly reduced if Trump had at the very least encouraged people to wear masks, and social distance"
I believe that is true...only if Trump's encouragement would have produced the desired result of people wearing masks. As I do not believe it would have, the death toll would not have been reduced.
"and even more lives saved if mask wearing had been made mandatory, with strict rules on social gathering, enforced with heavy fines."
Again true...if it could have been done. In the US, Trump does not have that authority and in any case I do not believe it could have been done effectively. You're asking the police force in every city to spend their days walking around writing tickets...tickets that would then be ignored or, at best, choke the courts with cases consisting only of "he said she said" cases.
I saw a FB meme yesterday along the lines of "The government is going to tell me who I can have over for Thanksgiving dinner?!?! Fat chance!" A very American viewpoint, but one I don't think Europeans will understand.
"Sorry, but Trump politicalised ‘mask wearing’ by making such a big thing about not wearing masks; and led a bad example by refusing to wear a mask himself (other than when he was forced to). Consequently, his ‘support base’ (millions of Americans) followed suit and did what Trump did (being led by example), and themselves politicalised ‘not wearing’ masks.
If Trump had done the responsible thing and encouraged people to wear masks, many of his followers would have been persuaded to do likewise e.g. “Monkey see, monkey do”; which would have saved thousands of lives.
Likewise, Trump refusing to encourage people to wear masks at his election campaign rallies, and encouraging people not to social distance at his election campaign rallies, both created a situation of his election campaign rallies being ‘super spreader’ events; thus causing even more deaths.
As regards hefty fines to enforce ‘Covid-19’ Regulations:-
Yep I know the USA likes to do things at State Level rather than Federal Level (just like 50 separate countries), but that doesn’t stop the President from at the very least encouraging States to do the right thing, such as impose mandatory mask wearing; something Trump refused to do.
Yep, I know in the USA it would be difficult to enforce heavy fines for the reasons you give; but across Europe, that is what is done e.g. the maximum penalties in the UK for flouting ‘Covid-19’ Regulations is £10,000 ($13,000); and it is enforced by the police. For examples, in the UK:-
• The Police have been given access by the Government to the NHS ‘Track & Trace’ database so that they can do spot checks on people who are meant to be in self-isolation (quarantine), which includes ‘Travel Self-Isolation’ e.g. people travelling back to the UK from other countries; 20% of which are spot checked by the police, and issued with fines if they are found to be in breach of quarantine. Rule in the UK for people in ‘Travel self-isolation’ are particularly tuff e.g. having come back from another country, not only do they have to get themselves tested at least twice, but they have to stay in complete isolation for 14 days, which includes not being permitted to even go out to buy food; the law states that they have to either get their food delivered or arrange for a friend or relative not living with them to do the food shopping for them.
• In the UK the Police do brake up gathering of more than 6 people (the maximum legal size of gathering permitted in the UK; and on more than one occasion people have been fined £10,000 ($13,000) for organising house parties larger than 6 people.
I know that American would baulk such draconian measures, but it does help to save lives, so in the UK (according to opinion polls) such measures has the support of 80% of the population; and in those opinion polls 25% of the UK population would like to see the Government going even further.
Welsh police fine visitors from England https://youtu.be/4iSfCqw_LmU
Police break up church service breaking lockdown rules in Wales https://youtu.be/kY3hQqPqEao
People from COVID hotspots told to stay away from Wales https://youtu.be/4N-6eSzPNk4"If Trump had done the responsible thing and encouraged people to wear masks, many of his followers would have been persuaded to do likewise e.g. “Monkey see, monkey do”; which would have saved thousands of lives."
With this I would highly disagree. I believe he could have "converted" a few to wearing masks, but the large majority of people not wearing them are not doing so because of Trump. It's easy to say people would go along, not so easy to actually show that they would.
"Difficult to enforce" isn't the term I would use. Let the cops break up a church gathering because of a faux virus (the opinion of many) and those police will be out of a job and the city bankrupt. People take "freedom of religion" extremely seriously here.
Nor would police having any form of "track and trace" go over here - it simply is not within the mentality of Americans. Huge court cases have gone on because cops confiscated a cell phone and tried to use it to track movements - when they couldn't they tried to sue the manufacturer to provide a "back door" into the phone...and have nearly always failed in the attempt.On your comments in your first two paragraphs we do disagree with each other, and I don’t think that’s going to change: A good ‘Leader’ should lead by example to wear masks and social distance; and Trump didn’t. Trump did politicalise the issue of masks. Trump does have a large following who are persuaded by his words. So to say “he could have [only] ‘converted’ a FEW to wearing masks” is untrue; he has a large support base, who follow his every word e.g. what he says is influential amongst his support base.
On your last two paragraphs, it shows the differences between USA and European Culture:
• Yep, I know that many in the USA believe Covid-19 to be a faux virus, and Trump hasn’t helped in that view.
• Yep, Americans take religion very seriously, whereas in Europe not so many people are religious. Excluding Northern Ireland, less than half the British population are religious, and not many go to church; which is why, even when there isn’t a pandemic most churches are mostly empty on a Sunday, and why so many churches have been sold in Britain to be repurposed.
For example: - Holy Trinity Church, Bristol (an iconic church in Bristol) which fell into disuse due to falling congregation is now used as a ‘Community Arts Centre’: Trinity Centre relaunch March 2014 https://youtu.be/qGat0QBSqTg
• Yep, I know that Americans take their right to privacy seriously, as does Britain’s, and like American’s Brits don’t like the police spying on them. So when the UK Government changed the law to allow the police access to the Covid-19 NHS ‘test and trace’ database it was controversial, but there wasn’t a major outcry from the pubic, because the British people recognise and accept the necessity of it. Again showing that stark difference between the mentality of Europeans and Americans.
On your last point e.g. huge court cases resulting from the police in the USA using mobile phones to track people; that is a prickly subject in the UK because of ‘anti-terrorist’ laws that Theresa May passed (when she was Prime Minister) which both the police and Local Governments misuse to spy on people (akin to the 1984 film): But that’s another subject.We don't disagree that Trump should have set a better example. Only that people will follow that example like lemmings. Only a small percentage of that "large support base" will "follow his every word". The vast majority are there because they like his policies: change the policies and they will not like him anymore. Not the other way around.
I'm not sure it's just a small percentage; I'm sure that if he had advocated wearing masks a lot more people would have followed his lead. So I guess it's one point we'll not agree on.
No we won't agree. You're insisting, at the root, that people follow Trump's agenda and philosophy because they love the man. I'm telling you that the reason Trump is in office is that he espoused the values of those wanting less government intrusion into their lives. That philosophy was there long before Trump took the stage.
So were Trump to suddenly flip and tell "his people" that "Government will now force you to wear masks, distance from your loved ones and remove your access to the entertainment you enjoy, but that is a function of your government." he is going to lose those people that chose him because of his small government philosophy. He cannot espouse one thing and then suddenly reverse course and say another and still keep the people that chose him because he "walked the same path" in their eyes.Okay, got it. Like Richard Nixon prying into the private affairs of Americans? But I thought otherwise. Here is a common world wide problem that needs a common confrontation. Trump neglect the duty when it lands on his desk. It is not surprising that he lost out in the November 3, 2020 election votes. More than that, Potus play with the mind of the people. He thought they were robots. But the people saw the neglected or bad side of the result. For example, death and the super spreading of the pandemic. Common sense will not welcome such a calamity.
Yep, Trump was elected to Office in 2016 for the reasons you give e.g. the American’s ‘wild west spirit’; but that was long before the pandemic, so he was not elected to Office because of his attitude on pandemics.
Exceptional times, such as wars and pandemics, requires exceptional action e.g. pulling the nation together in times of crisis; something Trump never made any attempt to do. Making masks mandatory wouldn’t have been a ‘flip’ in policy because the pandemic didn’t exist until this year, it would have been a prudent step to save lives, that I’m sure some of Trump’s support base would have understood under the circumstances if the unusual situation was explained to them.
Most government’s around the world have imposed such restrictions, and similar, to fight the pandemic, regardless to their politics e.g. right-wing capitalist Government’s just as much as left wing socialist Governments and communist regimes; all in the same boat.
In essence, I agree with Miebakagh’s comments above.
"Yes, I’ve also seen on the news in recent days and weeks that some hospitals in some States in the USA are reaching full capacity for beds, ICU’s and staffing; and that the situation is likely to get much worse in the USA over the coming weeks/months. Even in States, such as Michigan, where they’ve managed to maintain the pandemic quite well to date, the spread of the virus is beginning to grow exponentially, with increased hospitalisation and deaths."
Not to argue --- All you have stated here is true. However, let's add a few facts None in the US ever was turned away from a hospital bed, an ICU if needed or a ventilator. In the states such as New York, Michigan, and a few others field hospitals were built, and very few beds used. Here in Michigan, we had one of our large conference venues turned into a 1000 bed hospital, with military staff on the ready Only 8 beds were used in the entire time this pandemic has been with us... So, please do not consider that the US will come up in any respect short for caring for our citizens. I would also point out our hospitals are well stocked. We are doing very well. As well as one could expect with a raging pandemic.
You mentioned Michigan, I live in Michigan, we have had very strict mitigations, we are at this point a ghost state.,. We have spiked our numbers are far worse than they ever have been. All the mask-wearing and other stick mitigations did little we are dealing with a virus and we were told back in march we all would have a fall/winter wave. So many of us that follow science knew what we were in for. No surprise.
It is obvious the US is continuing to have a hard time controlling the virus, as is most of the EU and the UK... Hopefully, a vaccine or two will be available soon.The reason I mentioned Michigan is because it’s one State that took the pandemic seriously e.g. mask-wearing and other strict mitigation; and consequently during the summer months you did bring the death rate down in Michigan to single figures; saving thousands of lives.
In contrast many States in the USA did not take the same precautionary measures with the consequent that the pandemic was never bought under control in those States; with the consequent that the death rate in those States remained very high throughout the summer; contributing to the loss of tens of thousands of avoidable deaths.
Yes vaccines are on their way, with a small supply arriving within weeks; but at best, it’s going to be another five months before enough people have been vaccinated to have any real impact on the pandemic; and in the meantime lives can be saved if people wear masks and if States take strict measures to control the spread of the virus.
But if the USA carries on its current course of putting little real effort into trying to control the spread of the virus, then by the time the vaccine starts to have a real impact on the pandemic in the spring, the total death toll in the USA is currently on course of approaching half a million deaths by Spring.
We all are blaming the Trump demon for the spread of coro. I think it is time Americans institute a case in the courts of law. Iol!
Americans, Brits, Chinese, Nigerians, and any person in the diaspora on the American continent.
The challenge seems complex, but it is serious. Leadership should have a common agreement or a front. I think example aside, the "one man" show like that of Potus is wrong. Trump did not take the American CDC and Prevention or the. WHO very seriously. Potus, it seems made a jest out of these organs. For example, has any one forget when he advocate drinking (dilute) bleach and staying or relaxing in the sun? So it is not surprising Joseph Biden leveraged on wearing mask, and Trump lost out? Nigeria is still saddled with the question of testing and basic testing kits. Like as I have been saying, the temperature test is the only common public test. When one is sick with a cold like symptom, what test. Nigerian doctors apply is not publicly known.
Here's the latest Nigerian statistics of the coronavirus from the Nigerian CDC and Prevention via, its twitter handle last weekend. 156 new cases were handled and 1 death. Out of the 36 states of Nigeria plus Abuja, the capital city, 11 states were affected including the federal capital teriitory (FCT) or Abuja. Here's the listing: Lagos(70), FCT(22), Kaduna(18),. Rivers(15-my state), Plateau(11), Ogun(10),. Bauchi and Katsina had 3, Kano(2),. Ekiti and Osun (1) respectively. The total confirm cases of Nigeria is now 64,884. Out of this 60,936 were discharged, and 1163 death is on record. I think they is likely a symptom remaining from those claim to be dischared. Covid-19 is not a common cold. I am taking a preventive stand against covid19
Yep, a wise persuasion; as you infer Covid-19 is not like the common cold, it's deadly.
Covid-19 Long Haulers
Announced in the UK’s Government ‘Address to the Nation’ yesterday (16th November): To deal with Covid-19 ‘Long Haulers’ the NHS is setting up 40 ‘Long Covid Clinics’ across Britain by the end of November: https://youtu.be/pXVaVp_Zqgw
Many Americans are complacent about Covid-19 because the death toll is only about 2%, and 90% of those deaths are people over the age of 55.
However, what most Americans seem to be oblivious to is the fact that Covid-19 is not just a respiratory disease, it affects every major organ in the body, and a high percentage of people who become ill with Covid-19 suffer long lasting illness due to Covid-19; known as ‘Long Haulers, a condition that will put additional strain on healthcare worldwide for years to come:
Recent studies have shown that 10% of people under the age of 50 who become ill with Covid-19, even if they have just mild symptoms and don’t need to be hospitalised, become Covid-19 Long Haulers e.g. after their initial recovery from Covid-19, they subsequently require medium to long term medical treatment for damage to major organs in the body caused by Covid-19.It would appear the UK is also doing very poorly, with a death toll per million on par with the US. The daily death rate on a seven-day average is also spiking higher in the UK than in the US. On a scale considering the US has 5 times the population qs the UK. Our death rate is approx 1,100 per day versus the UK's approx 2,000 per day... Are the citizens in the UK also complacent to using proper mitigations to curb the spread? What has caused the spikes in the UK?
Good question Sharlee.
Unlike the USA, where the death toll has stayed high all year since the epidemic stated in March, thanks to strict measures (saving lives) European countries did manged to get their death rate right down during the summer months e.g. around 10 a day in the UK for over three months.
However, you might be aware that the 2nd (anticipated flu season) wave is now sweeping across Europe, and in the UK the death rate has risen sharply from 10 a day to around 400 a day in just the last month.
In answer to your question, it’s not that UK citizens are also complacent (like American citizens are) to using proper mitigations to curb the spread. In fact the vast majority of UK citizens do take the virus very seriously, and have turned out to be remarkably good at supporting the Government in its efforts to fight the virus.
The problem is that Covid-19 is extremely contagious, and it takes more than just social distancing and wearing masks to keep it contained; especially in colder climates like Britain e.g. like flu Covid-19 prefers colder weather; which is why the death toll in the USA is set to get a lot higher over the coming weeks and months than it currently is.
According to data collected from ‘test & trace’ the two main causes of spreading the virus in the UK has been:-
• Students going back to university in mid-September, and
• Northerners visiting each other in their homes; even though they kept within the ‘Rule of 6’ e.g. social gathering of no more than six people.
In the UK Northerners are culturally more friendly, and more sociable than southerners e.g. family and friends visiting each other, in their homes, in the north is a way of life; while in southern England people tend to keep themselves to themselves more. So although northerners followed the ‘Rule of 6’ e.g. social gatherings of no more than six people; it’s no surprise that the virus finds it easier to spread in the north; which is where the bulk of infections are.
Likewise, the bulk of the major outbreaks since September in Britain have been in cities and towns where the universities are.
However, unlike the USA, the current high death rate in the UK is only transient.
Unlike the USA, where the death rate is set to continue to rise steeply for the foreseeable future, in the UK there are early signs that we are approaching our peak, and an anticipation that daily deaths will start declining again.
Currently, since the 5th of November, most of the UK is on a tight economic and social lockdown; not dissimilar to the lockdown in the UK that lasted from 23rd March to 4th July.
The current lockdown is due to end on the 2nd of December, at which time Regional ‘Social’ Lockdowns will kick back-in under a three-tier system e.g. tight restrictions in areas where infections are high, and looser restrictions in areas where infections are low.
It’s too early to say how effective the current lockdown is, but the early signs are encouraging e.g. the ‘R’ value has dropped and is now just 1.0 to 1.2 (a strong indication that the infection rate is slowing in the UK). The target is to get the ‘R’ value to below ‘1’ e.g. a point at which infections will start to decline.
Also, New Cases in the UK have levelled off at around 25,000 a day in spite of the fact that testing capacity has increased from 500,000 a day to almost 600,000 (20% increasing in testing in a month); which is quite impressive when the USA is struggling to do 600,000 a day (which is about the same number of tests the UK is doing daily).
Even though the UK is now doing almost the same number of daily tests as the USA, only 25,000 of those tests are positive in the UK (and levelling off), which is significantly lower than the 150,000 new cases (and sharply rising) in the USA; another sign that the UK Government is beginning to get the pandemic under control again.
To combat the problem of university students, so that they can travel home safely for Christmas, with a low risk of passing any infection onto their parents and grandparents, the UK Government plans to ‘test’ all ‘1 million’ university students in the week between 30th November and 6th December e.g. to give those who test positive 14 days to quarantine (self-isolation), in time to be safe to travel home for Christmas; while those who test negative will be free to go home to their families without fear of taking the infection home with them.
And finally, the UK is to get 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine (enough for 5 million people) in early December; enough to vaccinate 7.5% of the UK population in time for Christmas; while the USA is set to get 20 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine in December, enough to vaccinate just 3% of the American population.According to the UK Government vaccine schedule, the 10 million Pfizer vaccine doses destined for the UK within weeks will be used to vaccinate the following 5 million Brits before Christmas:-
• All residents in care homes.
• Care home workers.
• Everyone over the age of 80, and
• All Health and Social Care Workers (including the NHS)
N.B. The NHS (National Health Service) is the 5th largest employer in the world, with about 1.4 million employees.Authur, thanks for the update, especially about the testing of the university students before they go home for the Xmas holiday. It will prevent more spread, disease, and unnecessary death. Much thanks again.
I believe we all don´t have a real clue about why fatality rates are high or low in specific countries.
What should be noticed however is the statistical fact that on the northern hemisphere there is a signicant rise in deaths over the winter period. This leads to 15 to 20% more deaths in winter than in spring or fall.
In absolute numbers for Germany this amounts to some 2.500 more deaths/week in December than in September. The US shows similar numbers (population adjusted).
I looked up the status for G. (Covid19 related) and last week we had some 1.340 weekly Covid deaths. That is still well within the bandwidths of expected overall weekly death rate.
Everything beyond the bandwidth threshold is excess deaths (with high probability caused by Covid19)
US weekly deaths (from CDC):
Same contents for Germany:
The numbers always trail behind, because collecting data takes time.
The future will tell us more, but for the time being the US has piled up some 290.000 excess deaths until mid October (CDC). The Covid19 related deaths for that period were some 220.000 (Johns Hopkins). So where are the 70.000 additional fatalities coming from?
Arthur, can you contribute numbers on the UK in this context?On most days I check the stats (I live in Michigan) I note the death count and each day's explanation of how many were added into the number due to back records. I think this explanation from the CDC explains how they have been attributing many deaths to COVID ---
"Counts of deaths from all causes of death, including COVID-19, are presented. As some deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not diagnosed or not mentioned on the death certificate), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted. Additionally, deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems)."
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi … deaths.htm
.Sharlee gave a comprehensive answer that also applies to the UK. That’s why the UK Government publishes three figures for Covid-19 related deaths (as shown below); and it’s up to you to decide which figure you think is more accurate:-
UK Government Data on Covid-19 Related Deaths (published yesterday):-
• Deaths within 28 days of positive test = 52,745 (The figure used by the worldometers website)
• Excess deaths for 2020 (relative to average of previous 5 years) = 56,313
• Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificates = 63,873
The Worldometers website uses the first option, which may not be the most accurate as people do die of Covid-19 e.g. at home, without having been tested for Covid-19; and then it’s up to the doctor to make a diagnosis.
However, in looking at the data above, it would suggest a lot of doctors are overzealous in diagnosing Covid-19 as the cause of death in the absence of a test.
Therefore, I would be inclined to lean towards ‘excess deaths’ as the more realistically most accurate guestimate for Covid-19 related deaths; and I would suspect that that is the most accurate figure worldwide; certainly far more accurate than Government stats published by most Governments around the world.
For the UK, of the 52,745 deaths within 28 days of a positive test, over 40,000 occurred during the first three months of the pandemic (March to June), of which around 20,000 were the elderly in care homes; and most of the remaining 12,000+ deaths within the past month.
However, the good news is that ‘R’ is now tantalising close to ‘1’ (and still falling), the positivity rates are falling, and hospitalisations have levelled off. So (accepting the time lags) there is a cautious anticipation from the UK Government that we should start to see signs of the death rate levelling off soon; and nervously confident that the pandemic will be back under control by the time the current lockdown ends on the 2nd December!!!We can always make a plausibility crosscheck on the numbers.
Reading your comment, you suggest that Covid is a little overcounted in the UK. May be. Then the US seems to undercount the Covid19 excess deaths. What seems to be true?
I looked more closely at the graphs that i had provided.
For Germany: average expected weekly death count: 19.000
Population: 83 Million
Computed life expectancy: 83.000.000 / 19.000 / 52,5 (weeks/year) = 83 years. A little high, but no unreasonable.
For the USA: average expected weekly death count (all causes by CDC): 59.000
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi … deaths.htm
Population: 330 Million
Computed life expectancy: 330.000.000 / 59.000 / 52,5 weeks = 106,5 years.
Now, i wish all Americans the very best, but i don´t think that number for life expectancy is correct. Latest figures from worldometer suggest some 80 years for the US. Do the same trick in reverse and you get 330.000.000 /52,5 /80 = 79.330 deaths of all causes per week and not 30% less (59.000)
My conclusion: the data from CDC seems to be flawed. In the comments associated to the graph, i found some 5% uncertainty and hints on the time lag i had mentioned, but nothing to explain more than 30% difference. Just to remember, i don´t talk about Covid deaths but about all cause deaths. If this graph and data is worthless, then excess deaths interpretation is void for Covid19, at least for the US. But may be i misinterpret things.
For the UK (population 66 Mill. / life expectancy 82 years) in the past week some 2900 people passed away with Covid, 18,9% of natural deaths. This means the past week alone took away from average life expectancy some 0,3 years. If we adjust for 75% weight on the elderly, the last week took more than 1 year off the life expectancy of that age group. What more is to be expected until Christmas?
This is a very sad story, forgive me the unempathetic number crunching.
To be sarcastic: Less elderly - less pensions to be payed.Yep, your assessments seem on the ball.
Covid-19 related deaths maybe a little over counted on death certificates in the UK, but that’s just one of a set of three figures for Covid-19 related deaths published by the Government in their daily updates:-
1. The ‘Official’ figure the UK Government uses for ‘trends’ and therefore policy making, is the one compiled by the NHS of people who test positive and then die within 28 days, which is the lowest of the three figures, and most likely be an underestimate; but it’s the most readily available data because it’s compiled and published by the NHS daily.
2. Where Covid-19 is put as the cause of death on the death certificate, which is down to the judgement of the doctor signing the death certificate if the person hadn’t been tested for Covid-19, is data that the ONS (Office of National Statistics) gathers and published weekly.
3. Comparing ‘total deaths’ each month this year (regardless to cause of death), with the average of the last five years, is data of excess deaths calculated by the ONS (Office of National Statistics) and published monthly.
‘1’ above is the ‘Official’ figure used by the UK Government in charts and graphs, because it’s the most readily available data e.g. updated every 24 hours; although it may be slight underestimate because it doesn’t take account of people who die at home who haven’t been tested for Covid-19 but die of Covid-19 symptoms, and consequently the doctor signing the death certificate may well put Covid-19 as the cause of death (which will subsequently be picked up on the stats by ONS).
‘2’ above, risks over counting because if someone at home has Covid-19 like symptoms, but isn’t tested, and then dies you can’t just assume it was Covid-19; but the doctor does have to put a cause of death on the certificate. And that data is gathered and published by the ONS weekly.
‘3’ Calculating excess deaths for any given month this year, compared to the overall average for the same months over the past five years (which is done by the ONS), is published by the UK Government alongside the other two methods of calculating Covid-19 related deaths because it provides a useful double check that the other methods of calculating Covid-19 deaths are not being unduly skewed by errors e.g. such a comparison highlighted a glitch in the method ‘1’ above in June, that was causing reported Covid-19 related deaths being grossly inflated; and once the error had been identified the NHS spent the next few weeks double checking their data and correcting the data.Arthur, by end of January 2021 all raw data was published for German death count in 2020. The result is quite interesting, especially concerning the Covid19 impact (raw data includes all kinds of deaths causes, distinguishes age, sex, state).
So, in 2020 some 992.000 people passed away. With a population of 83 Million that results in an average life expectance by rule of thumb of: 83.000/992 = 83,6 years. So far so good.
Compared to previous years the death count is some 35.000 higher than to be expected. That matches with the Covid associated death count published by the end of 2020. No reason to question total numbers on excess mortality.
However, much of the Covid related issues were associated with the elderly. So it should be visible in the age statistics. More older people must have died during the pandemic. But here the data gives almost no hint. In 2019, 87.1% died that where over 65. In 2020 the same number is 87.5%, almost no change and if you normalise for ageing population almost nothing remains.
The month of December was the worst for all countries in the Northern hemisphere. But even for this specific month the number for above 65 was only 1.2% higher relative to the monthly total count than in the rest of the year. Only the death of above 85 years was 3,5% higher.
Apparently Covid fatalities have a lower impact in statistics than daily horror stories suggest. At least for Germany.
Are there numbers available for the UK and other countries?
It is a frightening illness. It is had to imagine any disease equating covid-19 at the moment. A person recovered from a sickness, the body will produce anti-body that strenghten the body, the immune system against any related or further attack. Covid-19 did not provide that chance. It is now clearly obvious that preventing a disease is to be prefer to curing it. Covid-19 Long Haulers are demons rebirth!
Merry Christmas and a Happy Green Future
The UK Government made two major announcements yesterday (18th Nov):
1. As per Boris’s (UK Prime Minister) announced goal on the 4th July when the UK Government re-opened the economy after being in lockdown for over three months; yesterday, the Government laid out outline plans for giving everyone a ‘Good Christmas’, as a rest bite amidst the pandemic.
The outline plan, for which details are currently being worked out by the Government, is to make all attempts to have the pandemic under control by Christmas so that ’Restrictions’ can be lifted for ‘Christmas week’ (about 5 days), so that families can enjoy a good Christmas.
But it comes at a cost; the Government is anticipating that by lifting ‘restrictions’ for Christmas week, that they will have to impose ‘tough’ restrictions again, for an estimated 25 days following Christmas; to compensate for easing of the restrictions over the Christmas period.
No decision is to be made until after the current lockdown ends on the 2nd December, and Boris’s plans will be put to Parliament for a final decision; and it’s expected that his plans will be passed with the support of the Labour Party because a growing number of Conservatives (now 70+ MPs) on the right of the Conservative party are critical of the plan because of their dislike of ‘lockdowns’.
2. In continuation of the Green Revolution, as a major step towards the UK meeting its legal requirement to be carbon net neutral by 2050, yesterday the UK Government released a detailed 10-point plan (complete with a financial budget) covering the next ten years.
It might sound as if it’s going off topic of this forum, but it’s not in the sense that the Government sees such a plan as an excellent way of helping the economy to recover in the aftermath of the pandemic by boosting the UK economy, attracting investment, and creating wealth and jobs on a massive scale.
Three of the ten major points of the 10-point plan includes:-
i. To bring forward the banning of all fossil fuel vehicles in the UK to 2030 (just 10 years from now).
ii. To quadruple the power output of wind energy in the UK over the next 10 years, by stepping up the rollout of wind turbine farms, so that every home in the UK will receive their electricity from wind power (as the prime part of the green energy mix).
iii. To phase out the use of ‘natural gas’ and replace it with ‘green hydrogen’ over the next 10 years so that all cooking and heating in all homes in the UK will be by green hydrogen instead of natural gas.Normality on the Horizon
Although the UK is still in near full economic and social lockdown, until the 2nd December (Albeit, as from today, Christmas trees have been added to the list of ‘essential’ services e.g. as from today it’s legal to buy and sale Christmas trees, in spite of the economic lockdown):
1. In the UK the provisional dates for the Government to ease the Covid-19 Rules over Christmas, to allow Brits to enjoy Christmas, is from 22nd December to 28th December.
2. The ‘R’ value in the UK is fallen again this week, and is now tantalisingly close to ‘1’ e.g. between 1.0 & 1.1
3. The positivity rates on testing in the UK are rapidly falling.
4. In spite of massive increase in testing in recent weeks in the UK, due to the nationwide rollout of mass-testing using the quick 10-minutes results tests, the total number of daily new cases has levelled off over the past three weeks, and is showing early signs of beginning to fall.
5. Hospitalisations in the UK have levelled off over the past 10 days.
6. Covid-19 related deaths in the UK have levelled off over the past few days, and showing early, tentative signs of possibly falling!
7. The early results of the Oxford University Vaccine, not far behind the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, shows the same high level of effectiveness; and potentially could also be approved by the end of the year.
Regarding the last point, the UK has more pre-orders for Covid-19 vaccines, per head of population than any other country e.g. 40 million doses from Pfizer, 5 million doses from Moderna, and 100 million doses from Oxford.
The NHS (National Health Service) will have the infrastructure in place by 2nd December, so that they can start vaccinations as soon as these vaccines are approved.
The Government has ordered enough of the Oxford vaccine alone, to be able to vaccinate virtually the whole of the UK population; let alone the orders placed with Pfizer & Moderna.
Therefore, today’s announcement from the NHS/Government (21st November), assuming the trials for the Oxford vaccine ends soon (as anticipated), and subsequently approved, is that everyone in the UK will be vaccinated by April.Sounds like the UK is moving in the right direction. Wish I could say the same for the U.S.
I agree wihh prettypanther. Not just the right thing for both the UK and USA. Some month ago, I wrote a poem. I state that the pandemic is without boarder. The rate it spread and infect other nations via, China is an alarm episode. Hence, all countries should copy the UK.
Don't you think all countries should have acted earlier, and perhaps they should have copied South Korea or Australia or New Zealand?
For argument sake, when the pandemic spread at an alarming rate in China, and the WHO later declared the pandemic a global health challenge. China put Wuhan into lockdown. Did South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand copy and went into lockdown immediately? I think not. America under "real" Donald Trump was a world first in that, right? When China told the world she has found a cure, and then a vaccine for covid-19, did the 3 countries copy? Nope! You will notice that not every nation, leader, and organisation had an instant answer! My opinion remain the same.
"Did South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand copy and went into lockdown immediately? I think not."
Yes, Australia and New Zealand stopped flights from China on the same day President Trump did.
Australia and New Zealand then closed their borders to other infected countries in March. Only essential travellers are allowed to enter the country, and they have to serve a strict two weeks quarantine in special hotels, before being allowed to enter society.
Australia has had less than 1,000 deaths from Covid. New Zealand has had 25 deaths.Marisa, you're giving me post pandemic lockdown answers. Good as these may be, did you ever noticed my questions focus on "immediately" or the moment the lockdown began in China? You deviate from that angle. My question is why did not New Zealand and Australia copy China and imposed the lockdown immediately, if I may remind you? That is the point I direct my question. Yep, what do you want to say again?
The lockdown in China began on January 23rd. Australia and New Zealand locked down one week later.
We have had NO cases of coronavirus across most of Australia for many weeks. With that in mind, how would closing one week earlier have made any difference?Marisa, I hate it that you're still beating about the bush. And you're still raising more question than answer. It's on record that China clamp down Wuham on Janaury 23. Did New Zealand and Australia went into lockdown same date Jan. 23? This is one of the question I'm begging. It mattered much and should make a vast difference had your country Australia goes into complete lockdown. Then the world would see if your unique test is fit for copying?
I am not beating about the bush, I have answered your question clearly. I suggest you read my posts again with more care, instead of skimming them. I am not going to engage in any further dialogue with you because you do not seem to understand, so it's pointless.
Yep, as Marisa stated, Australia, New Zealand went into lockdown early e.g. end of January; with the result of low death tolls.
Greece was the first European country to lockdown e.g. 13th March (when the infection rate was still low in the country); and consequently has a low death toll of just 1,527.
The UK waited too long e.g. it didn’t lock down until the 23rd March, by which time the virus was wide spread in the country; with the consequence of a high death toll. But it stayed in lockdown until the 4th July, which bought the eventual daily death toll down to just 10 a day throughout the summer months.
Likewise the USA waited far too long before going into lockdown, and it only stayed in lockdown for just 6 weeks (not long enough), so consequently when the USA came out of lockdown at the beginning of May the death rate was still high, and remained high all summer.When the pandemic hit, Australia's Prime Minister called a meeting of all the State Premiers and they decided to form a "national cabinet", where all the state leaders would meet regularly (via Zoom) to agree and implement a common policy across Australia.
As you might expect, there were lots of differences of opinion and each state made its own decisions on some things, but I think it helped a lot to have that display of unity and to hear the same message coming from every government in the land. Admittedly it would be much harder with 50 states compared to our 6, but it seems like an opportunity missed.Yep, the UK has operated in a similar manner to Australia in that respect e.g. the four nations of the United Kingdom (the three Celtic Nations, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) working together with Anglo-Saxon/Norman England.
Such a co-ordinated effort by the four nations of the UK to pull together to fight a common enemy has been quite a remarkable achievement considering that in normal times they are politically polls-apart e.g. England being ruled by a right-wing Conservative Government and Northern Ireland by an ultra-right wing Government; while both Scotland and Wales are ruled by left-wind Socialist Governments. It just shows what can be achieved during times of crisis.
All you write is correct, but i still doubt that the timestamp of official lockdown had direkt consequences for spreading. In Germany official lockdown was imposed from March 23 on. However the max. R=3,13 was reached already on March 9th.
So when lockdown was imposed, the R factor was already down to 1. Imho the trick did: scaring people (from Italy) to stay home voluntarily and closing schools from March 12th on.
In January, we had a local outbreak in a company in Bavaria. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal … SKCN21R1DB
Was fully contained by mid February. But then winter holidays ended and a lot of young tourists returned from skiing in the Alpes. They brought with them the virus and spread uncontrolled. Hannibal passed the Alpes from North to South, the virus went North from Italy. All proven knowledge of how to contain did not help at all in our free society.
Germany was lucky to have first only spreading in young communities. Kept the death count low. Australia was lucky to have no tourists returning from the Alpes in January.
There is much more to it than just looking at administrative measures. This is what puzzles me so much.
Certainly Greece and Czechia took early precautions in the spring. But look at Czechia now. 7 day incidence higher than UK and Greeces 7 day incidence higher than Germany´s. Population adjusted deaths toll will follow suite.Yep, there is ‘NO One Answer Fits All’; it’s a complex picture that will keep ‘Academics’ busy for years to come.
But what is important, is that we do now have a much better understanding of what and how different measures in the ‘tool kit’ works in helping to reduce the spread of the virus e.g. mask wearing, social distancing, controlling the borders; and closing down bars (pubs) restaurants, remote (virtual learning) learning, working from home etc., as appropriate, and lockdowns (local/regional & national) when necessary; and at the top of the list, good ‘test & trace’ on a massive scale.
The trick seems to be for ‘good’ leaders to use that tool kit as most appropriate for the individual need (regionally and or nationally etc.) to best suit the local/national situation, which will vary from nation to nation, and vary overtime e.g. the importance for leaders to listen to their scientific and medical advisors and base Government policies on current expert advice.
For example, Boris (UK Prime Minister) keeps his finger on the pulse by being briefed daily by his scientific and medical advisors; and he doesn’t hesitate in changing the Rules/Laws at a stroke (sometimes giving just 24 hours’ notice or less) to bring in changes, using the tool kit above as he thinks best at the time to fight the pandemic.
The virus is very contagious, so it’s not just a question of preventing the spread in the first place, or taking measure to bring the infection rate down, it’s a constant battle to keep it down; and when circumstances change good leaders should be quick in changing the way they use the ‘tools’ in the ‘tool kit’ to compensate (mitigate) for those changes, as appropriate, to continue the fight to contain the virus.
Miebakagh, back in January Covid-19 was not a pandemic, it was an epidemic e.g. it was not worldwide then; it took time to spread from country to country, first to South Korea, and the Asian countries then Europe, then the USA etc.
So Marisa is right in saying that it’s pointless in locking down Australia and New Zealand at the same as China, simply because at that time the epidemic hadn’t reached Australia and New Zealand.
The important thing is that countries should have gone into lockdown swiftly as the pandemic reached them e.g. those countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Greece etc., who did lock down swiftly have had very few deaths. Those countries that were slow in locking down when the epidemic reached their shores e.g. Italy, Spain, UK and USA etc. suffered the consequences.Okay, back then it's epidemic even in China. Now, it is pandemic from late January. We have for a long time use both words interchangeably. This is how far I can go here. Thanks, Author thanks.
Wuhan locked down on January 23rd. Australia banned all flights from China on January 31st.
On March 20th, the borders were closed to the whole world and the country went into lockdown. At that time, infections were running at less than 200 a day.
Based on that, I don't think Meibakagh's idea of locking down even earlier would have made much difference. We've had less than 1,000 deaths.What I’m trying to express Miebakagh is that Covid-19 is a new disease, and back in January & February we didn’t know how quickly it would spread around the world and how wide spread it would become e.g. the WHO didn’t classify Covid-19 as a pandemic until 11th March.
In recent years we’ve had the threat of bird flu becoming pandemic, and then we had the Ebola scare in 2014 when because of the way it was reported on TV News Media in the USA some Americans panicked; as per video below:-
The Difference between USA vs UK Ebola News Coverage: https://youtu.be/lAz-F1QnyCk
The point I’m trying to make is that the world is always under constant threat of anyone of a number of known virus around the world becoming a worldwide pandemic; but fortunately in the past 100 years, apart from Covid-19, all other similar diseases have been contained as local epidemics and not spread worldwide.
So it is important not to over react, and for countries to close borders and shutdown economies too early every time there’s a threat (which might be contained or fizzle out, or not even get a foothold in your country); but be prepared to act swiftly once it’s known that a threat becomes reality in your country. South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Greece, Iceland etc. did react swiftly, so they’ve all had very low death tolls; while the UK, Italy, Spain and the USA did not act swiftly, and consequently paid the price.
I hope that gives a bit more clarity?Marisa, you're welcome and thanks. Although the covid pandemic is being containd, it is unlikely that it can be totally eredicate as all paneemic are. What is vital to my mind is to prevent any sort of disease infecting a person low or high.
Authur, although, I've comment on this post, I now realised, I address it to Marisa, instead of you. I hope you're not offend or annoyed. Thanks.
Marisa, if you don´t mind, your comment raises more questions than hinting solutions.
Obviously keeping active cases low allows easy control of the situation. Countries with strict border controls alike China or Australia do much better than liberal or no border policy countries like the EU. (I still remember my family visiting Australia in the 90ties and the tears of my young son when officers took away his banana at airport immigration.)
Another question is how to deal with lockdowns. Lock up the infected - or - lock down the endangered?
And yet, how do you explain that Venezuela faired well until now and neighbouring Columbia and Brazil are top ranks in worldometer death count statistics. Why is Uruguay doing much better than Paraguay and why Nicaragua is better than neighbouring Honduras... and .. and..
Are there any explanations available except keeping active cases low?
Anyways, this is all looking back. We have to look forward and for me the only reasonable way to overcome the pandemic is mass vaccination. Initially R-factor was some 3 for the first wave. That suggested some 2/3 of population needed immunity. The 2. wave never got beyond R=1,5. That suggests you only need 33% immunity. So we have get as fast as possible to the 33% to dry out the pandemic.In part answer to your question, I think that Covid-19 related deaths are under counted in many of the poorer countries in particular e.g. they don’t have the resources to test for the virus on the scale that we have in the wealthier countries, so many sick people in those countries die (often at home) undiagnosed and unreported as Covid-19 related deaths.
As regards lockdowns, at this moment in time (until 2nd December) everyone in Britain is in lockdown (except for essential workers), regardless to whether they are infected or not, or high risk or not (a blanket lockdown); just like we were from 23rd March to the 4th July during the 1st lockdown. And it seems to be working e.g. the ‘R’ rate has come down from around ‘1.5’ to just above ‘1’ during the current lockdown.
The reason the ‘R’ value is lower in Europe now than it was in March/April is predominantly because we are imposing strict Covid-19 Regulations to reduce the spread of the virus e.g. mandatory mask wearing, social distancing, ‘large scale test & trace’ lockdowns when necessary etc. However, in the USA, where restrictions are far more relaxed (including no national mandate on mandatory mask wearing) the ‘R’ value is much higher, as evident by the high death toll there.
Yes, for next year, the only reasonable way to overcome the pandemic is mass vaccination. But to create herd immunity, the virus is as infectious as it ever was, so we are still going to need to vaccinate between 65% & 70% of the population; albeit, by vaccinating the most vulnerable first e.g. those over 55, the fatality levels will start to drop significantly.
However, it’s going to be a good few months to vaccinate enough of the population to achieve herd immunity e.g. April in the UK and July in the USA. So in the meantime, mass test and trace and tight Covid-19 Regulations such as mask wearing, social distancing and lockdowns (when appropriate) is the only way to contain the spread of the virus, and reduce deaths, until such time as heard immunity is achieved through mass vaccination.I don't trust figures from third world countries because testing is inadequate, and we also don't know the reporting protocols. In some countries, you cannot call a death covid-related unless the person was tested. Though still far from perfect, the most reliable statistic is to look at "excess deaths" for each country, compared to previous years.
Australia's previous border controls are largely irrelevant to what happened during Covid. The government took the decision to close the borders to all but essential travellers. That required a whole new permit system and whole new set of rules. There was nothing to stop other countries doing the same.
It's been shown that locking down the endangered does not work. The most notable example of that is Sweden, but we saw the same thing happen in the UK and to a smaller extent, here in the state of Victoria. Besides, it misses the point.
The high death toll in the elderly is unfortunate, but the fact remains that the overall death rate from coronavirus is less than 2% (provided the hospitals don't get overwhelmed). What's far more worrying is the long-term cost of health problems once the pandemic is over.
It's becoming more and more apparent that even if you have only a mild case of covid, it can cause serious long-term damage to your heart, lungs, kidneys or brain. This is not a surprise, because the same thing happened with the Spanish Flu - there was an explosion of enchephalitis lethargica and Parkinsons a few years later, caused by the flu, for instance. Governments are worried about the ongoing cost of having a population that's in poor health.
I wish I knew what the solution is for countries where the virus is already out of control. Being indoors with infected people for prolonged periods is by far the biggest risk, so measures to address that are the most critical - things like working from home, having shorter religious services or social get-togethers (if they are held at all), seating people much further apart, increasing ventilation, etc. This article has some excellent illustrations:
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020 … e-air.htmlI’m glad you mentioned ‘excess deaths’; that’s one of the three methods the UK Government uses, as a double check that the other two methods for reporting Covid-19 related deaths in the UK are realistic estimates e.g. dying within 28 days of testing positive, and doctors recording Covid-19 on the death certificates; the former figure tends to be slightly lower than ‘excess deaths’ and the latter noticeably higher.
The UK Government derives its monthly ‘excess’ death figures for 2020 by comparing total deaths for this year with the overall average deaths for the previous five years.
Although in the UK we’ve eventually got to the right place of doing the right thing, our Government was a bit slow on the uptake; which has cost many lives. Firstly, because initially our Prime Minister (Boris Johnson) was a little too complacent at the start of the Pandemic e.g. 10 days too slow in putting the UK into lockdown on the 23rd March (estimates being that if we had gone into lockdown a week earlier we could have reduced our death toll in March/April by about 50%), and then from the 5th April to 27th April we were leaderless, so no major decisions could be made, because Boris (our Prime Minister) was in hospital recovering from Covid-19 (and at one point almost died). Unlike the USA, there is no provision in the UK for a deputy leader in the event that our Prime Minister becomes incapacitated.
However, since his near death, and recovery from Covid-19, our Prime Minister (Boris) in the UK has been hell bent on fighting the virus (throwing money at it like confetti), albeit making poor but well intended choices at times; but to his credit he has predominantly taken the advice of the Medical and Scientific Experts (SAGE) as the prime guidance for his policy making.
For example, as you mention, being an island, the UK had an excellent opportunity of controlling its border; and eventually (as from 4th July) that’s what’s its done; a bit late, but we did get there.
In the UK mask wearing is mandatory, social distancing (2 metres) strictly imposed, and social gatherings larger than 6 people (indoors and outdoors, and in public & in private) is illegal; with fines of up to £10,000 for breaching the Regulations.
We are currently in a one month long strict ‘economic & social’ lockdown (with border controls maned by the police between Wales and England to prevent non-essential journeys), which ends on the 2nd December; which seems to be working e.g. new cases, hospitalisations and deaths across the UK all seem to be levelling off and showing signs of falling again. Then from 2nd December Britain returns to a three-tier system e.g. regions where the infection rates are on the rise having ‘strict’ lockdowns, and regions where the infection rate is low and stable, or falling to be more relaxed.
Marisa is right; South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Iceland, Greece and other countries all took quick and decisive action to combat the pandemic; and consequently kept it under control. Hence low death tolls in those countries e.g. South Korea with a population of over 51 million have a total of just 505 Covid-19 related deaths.
Other counties like the UK, Italy, Spain and the USA etc. were slow in acting, with disastrous results e.g. very high death tolls; particularly in the USA where Trump has made little effort to fight the pandemic.
It is South Korea that has shown the world how it should be done e.g. test, test & more testing.
In South Korea they didn’t need to go into full lockdown because long before Europe and the USA made any efforts to combat the pandemic, as well as a strict mask wearing regime, South Korea focused on mass a ‘test & trace’ programme on a large scale to great effect e.g. just 505 deaths in total.
That’s why Boris (UK Prime Minister) has been trying to emulate South Korea in its ‘test & trace’ programme ever since May, but it’s been an uphill struggle, with lots of mistakes, errors and delays in getting an effective system off the ground and working. But in the UK we are getting there e.g. this month (finally) we now have mass-testing on a scale larger than any other country: Consequently the UK has now done more tests per head of population than any other country in the world.
For example, the UK has now done a total of 40,266,183 tests to date (most of it more recently, due to technical problems etc.); while the USA has done 179,039,707 tests. Taking the population size difference into account, to date the UK has done approx. 10% more testing per head of population than the USA. In actual numbers the UK is currently ‘testing’ around 600,000 a day, with a target to increase that to 1.1 million tests a day by January. The USA testing slipped from 800,000 a day to 600,000 a day last month."Consequently, the UK has has done more tests per head of population than any other countries in the world" That is why I want other countries of the world to copy the UK example and there is nothing wrong in that, no matter how right Marisa may be.
We are talking about two different things.
You said Australia and New Zealand should have shut down when China did. I'm telling you, they did, just one week later. That worked well, but that is in the past.
Now we are talking about what other countries, who did not shut down, can do in the future.Agreed. But what's the issue about other countries of the world copy the present UK example vaccinating the Joe public? I hope you got my point now? Thanks.
Yep, the UK has placed early orders for 355 million doses of vaccines from 7 different Companies; enough to vaccinate the British population 5 times over (Hedging its bets). But with a world shortage that means depriving other countries of much needed vaccines in the early months. Albeit, the UK Government has made a pledge to donate any surplus vaccines that it doesn’t need to the third world (poor countries).
I have to correct that statistic. Australia has a population of 25 million people and has done a total of 9 million tests.
You are correct that tracking and testing are vital. However, once the virus becomes widespread, the tracing system becomes overwhelmed.Yep, that’s what happened in the UK in April, the pandemic became so widespread that Boris (our Prime Minister) abandoned testing just before he fell ill and was hospitalised with Covid-19 (where at one point he almost died).
However, three weeks later, when our Prime Minster returned to work he laid out an ambitious plan to start ‘testing’ small in May (just 100,000 tests a day); and to ramp it up month by month, so that now we have the capacity to do over half a million tests a day (almost comparable to the USA).
On top of that, with the initial help from Sweden, the UK started to develop its own ‘rapid test kits’ in September (three different British manufacturers making three different versions to trial); with an accuracy of 98% and results within 10 minutes. These were trialled in three different towns in October, and then in a city of half a million early November. In the past week or so these ‘rapid test kits’ have been rolled out more widely e.g. using them in cities and towns were the infection rates are the highest; in care homes and on relatives so that family members can start to visit their loved ones in the care homes; and during the first week of December all one million university students are to be tested before they return home for Christmas, to minimise the risk of them taking the virus home to their parents and grandparents.
So yes, it’s an impossible task to run an efficient ‘test & trace’ system when the pandemic spirals out of control, as the USA is learning to its cost; but by applying a circuit brake e.g. a near total shutdown of the economy for a month (as the UK is currently doing) it is possible to bring the spread under enough control to help make ‘test & trace’ more viable; provided of course that the Authorities use that month wisely to get a robust ‘test & trace’ system in place and operational once the lockdown ends; although whether that would be achievable in the USA where the pandemic is now rampant is questionable?
I’m not sure the UK is the best country to copy, right from the start China and South Korea have done a far better job at ‘test & trace’ than most countries; hence why they’ve kept the pandemic under control, with very few deaths.
South Korea, for expediency, and to good effect, used what was available e.g. test kits already available (developed by China), and ‘Tracing apps’ (for mobile phones) developed by Google & Apple. The UK made the mistake of trying to go one better by developing its own ‘rapid test kits’ and mobile phone ‘app’; which has taken time (Research & Development) e.g. over six months to perfect (a lot of wasted time). So it’s only been since September/October that the UK has been able to step up ‘test & trace’ and use a more sophisticated app to have any real effect on fighting the pandemic.
The UK would have done a lot better in adopting the ‘Google & Apple’ mobile ‘tracing app’ in the first instance, while it was developing its own ‘app’; just as it adopted the existing ‘test kits’ while developing a reliable ‘rapid test kit’. But even then, the UK didn’t start mass testing until May, and it took another four months to ramp up mass testing from 100,000 a day to 600,000 day, far too slow a start for what was needed; but we got there in the end, and by January the UK will have the capacity to do 1.1 million tests a day; and by March potentially 10 million tests a day (UK Government Target), by which time it will probably be mostly redundant as by that time most Brits will probably have been vaccinated.Authur, when the covid19 epidemic breakout in China December 17? I monitor events in China on facebook and twitter. It is interesting to know that China took a giant stride in bringing the pandemic under control in her country. My tweets and posts are there on twitter and facebook praising China. I'm glad you're updating me more on what Britain is up to with the covid vaccine. I pray my country Nigeria, a former British colony will benefit from some of the largess. But my point is that Britain did well in copying China. And the world is seeing excellent results. Let other countries do likewise.
Yep, I agree, China did an excellent job in controlling the virus within China, just as South Korea and other countries like Australia and New Zealand have done a excellent job in controlling the virus within their borders.
I certainly hope that normality will return one day in the future. Good to read that the UK seems to make progress.
For us in Germany the 2. wave curve seems to be bending. New daily cases fairly steady or declining, R-factor around 1, albeit active cases still at a very high level.
All over the country vaccination centers are set up for being prepared for the mass vaccination rollout. BioNtech in Mainz (the developer behind the Phizer vaccine) had started production already in summer. Currently vaccine production capacity in Germany (BioNtech, Curevac and others) is ramped up beyond 2 billion doses per year.
With the dedicated vaccination centers a major drawback of the BioNtech vaccine (ultra low temp. storage) can be overcome. So no local doctor has to do the vaccination.
All countrywide initiatives are questionable, if they not applied in all of Europe (at least). With the 2 shot BioNtech vaccine, you would need a Billion and more doses for the EU allone. We are still far from coming close. So the "horizon" is still far away. Expect another 6 to 8 months to pass.Thanks for the update Chris.
One thing that stuck me, in reading your comments, is Germany’s typical proficient ‘high tech’ approach to administrating the vaccination (dedicated vaccination centres), compared to the typically British ‘wartime mentality’ (low tech) approach e.g. adapt & adopt.
In the UK we have the facilities to keep the vaccines in cold storage, and are setting up the network of ‘chains of command’, ‘supply chains’ etc., all to be ready by 2nd December.
But in the UK, rather than just use the NHS facilities and staff, as would be normal for the annual flu vaccine; the UK Government wants people to be vaccinated swiftly en-mass, and to achieve the speed at which the Government wants people to be vaccinated, the Government has commandeered suitable public venues around the country, and converted them into ‘temporary vaccination centres’; and to staff them have enlisted the help of professional volunteers, including the ‘St John Ambulance’ and Vets (animal doctors); all who are currently in the process of being trained by the NHS to administer the vaccine properly and safely; plus of course enlisting the military where necessary in support of the supply chains etc.
FYI the ‘St John Ambulance’ is a volunteer-led, charitable non-governmental organisation dedicated to the teaching and practice of first aid to ordinary people (Joe Public) in England e.g. free tuition on the kiss of life etc., as basic emergency aid to keep someone alive until the ambulance arrives.
The Government Target is to have everything in place, and all staff trained, by the 2nd December.
Look, the coronavirus is a human disease and needs to be tackled humanely. The inhuman treatment meted out to millions of labourers when the government announced the lockdown on the spur of the moment, not giving people time to go home, followed by an active political vendetta against Muslims by giving the virus names like Muslim virus and calling it the Corona Jihad, have been the hallmark of India's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Shafqat-M, Islam is a religion that does not like to be slandered. Could it be wise to go and behead those politicians?!
Hot Off the Press (23rd Nov)
Within the last hour it’s been announced that the Oxford (England) vaccine, for which the UK has 100 million doses on advanced order (enough for every adult in the UK) is 90% effective, and unlike the Pfizer vaccine, can be stored at fridge temperature.Miebakagh, it’s potentially good news for Nigeria:-
The Oxford University (in England) vaccine, which was designed by an Oxford University student, is being manufactured ‘at cost’ by AstraZeneca for worldwide distribution.
AstraZeneca is a British/Swedish multinational pharmaceutical and Biopharmaceutical Company; but right from the start of the vaccine trials they agreed with Oxford University that the vaccine would be made as a ‘not for profit’ exercise to benefit the world; hence the Oxford vaccine is far cheaper than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, to make it more affordable to the poor countries.
The Oxford University vaccine will be sold at just £3 ($4) per dose (at cost); while the Pfizer vaccine costs £15 per dose and the Moderna costs £28 per dose.
The other advantage the Oxford University vaccine has over the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is that it can be stored at fridge temperature, making it a lot easier and cheaper to distribute and administer in poor countries.
The good news is that the Oxford University vaccine is already being manufactured, ready for worldwide distribution as soon as it gets approval e.g. 200 million doses will be ready for worldwide distribution by the end of the year, with a capacity to produce up to 200 million doses per month thereafter. That’s not going to be enough for the whole world, but in combination with worldwide distribution of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, and others that are in the pipeline, it’s one small step towards wiping out the pandemic!Authur, thanks for the update. I hope the Nigerian Federal Government has got across the message, place an order of 300 million Oxford University vaccine! Nigeria is estimate to herd 160 million peoples, excluding foreigners. The split over on humanity grounds should go for the strangers and other poor neighbor country. Nigeria, truely can afford it. It is pertinent to state here that the Nigerian government is hard on its scientist and researchers. It hardly persuade them to go into researching an issue. Many private scientists has inform of the results of covid fighting drugs and vaccine by using well known natural herbs. Government turn a deaf ear to them! What a pity.
It will take time to manufacture enough vaccines to vaccinate the whole world, but the WHO & the G20 recognise it as a worldwide problem and have policies that vaccines should be distributed around the world equitably; achieved through world aid for countries who otherwise couldn’t afford the costs.
The good news is that it’s not just the Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford vaccines, but also Russia has recently submitted their vaccine to the WHO for approval (for worldwide distribution), and if approved, Russia has opted to sell theirs for $10 a dose, making it one of the cheaper vaccines e.g. a much needed source of Revenue for Russia. China is producing their own vaccines, and an increasing number of other vaccines are getting ever closer to completing trials.
So the more vaccines approved, the greater the volume of production and the quicker the world can be vaccinated against Covid-19; and as the vaccines are proving to be around 90% effective in the trials, with worldwide distribution there is a good chance of making Covid-19 virtually extinct by the end of 2021.I can feel your fear about Christmas celebrations as we are facing Thanksgiving right now in the United States.
We had wanted to have Thanksgiving with family this year since he has stage 4 lung cancer but the numbers in our little town have spiked already.
We will be staying at home having a private celebration with all the food.
I do worry more about going out to the grocery store since that's where everyone does go.
I wonder if Russia will share with the rest of the world.
This is a worldwide pandemic.....I wonder if Russia will share with the rest of the world.....
I don´t know what you mean. If you reflect on vaccines, then world looks a little different. Currently there are more than 200 vaccine development projects going on. The most prominent and most advanced are among others:
Russian Sputnik V (Gamaley Institute)
BioNtech/Phizer (Germany/US)
Oxford AstraZeneca (UK)
Moderna (US)
As far my layman understanding goes, the vaccines differ in their approach to tackle the virus.
1. Conventional (inhibited/dead virus) vaccines for antibody production
2. Genetically modified inhibitors to cut the virus multiplication
Sputnik V and AstraZeneca seem to go the conventional way, while BioNtech/Phizer and Moderna follow the "genetic" approach.
It is a little more difficult to manufacture high volumes of conventional (flu) vaccines, relying on kind of a petri dish process with chicken protein to multiply the containe/dead viruses.
This is why the Russian Sputnik V vaccines were good in news headlines and marketing, but not in production. They still can´t ramp up production.
The "genetic" vaccines are probably easier to manufacture, but are totally new. Test phases show good results, but mass vaccination side effects are unknown. For the conventional (flu) vaccines we know that chicken protein allergies cause problems.
May be some is wrong of what i write. But my statement is that the vaccine world is not concentrated on just a few vaccines. There is much more to came and the world will need billions of vaccine doses. So the issue will be high volume production of the stuff.Yep you are right, to manufacture the billions of doses needed to vaccinate the whole world in the shortest time period possible, we are dependent on as many vaccines being approved as far as possible; the more the merrier.
I don’t know about the Russian vaccine, but the image below gives a simple graphic representation of how the Oxford vaccine works:
Specifically, the Oxford vaccine uses a weakened version of the common cold virus in chimps as a carrier (Trojan horse) for the genetic instructions for coronavirus’s specific spike protein. Production of the Oxford vaccine (which already has a stock pile of 200 million doses, ready to release as soon as approval is given) is being scaled up to 200 million doses a month, but unlike Pfizer & Moderna which requires two full doses for a full treatment, the Oxford vaccine has been found to be most effective when just 1.5 doses are given; which means more people can be treated per given volume, and it has the advantage of being stored at fridge temperature, making it logistically easier to administer in poor countries.
We don’t fear the Christmas celebrations; in fact we are looking forward to it. Albeit, making the arrangements to see family and friends Christmas week, while sticking to the Covid Laws, is a bit complex.
The UK Government is relaxing the Covid laws over Christmas week (23rd to 27th December) specifically so that family and friends can travel across the UK so as to be together for Christmas e.g. all travel restrictions are being lifted that week, and up to three families can form an exclusive bubble for that period.
The relaxation of the rules that week gives us an opportunity to meet a close friend who lives in Portsmouth (120 miles from us), whom we’ve only been able to see just once since March due to the tight Covid laws in the UK. For Christmas week we’re forming an exclusive bubble with him and his daughter (three families) e.g. his daughter will visit him on Christmas day, and then he’ll visit us a couple of days later (stay overnight) and then make the return journey on the 27th December, so as to get back to his home just before the relaxations in the covid-laws expire, and stricter rules come back in force.
Apart from not being able to get out and about to buy Christmas presents for family and friend, like we would normally do, we are ready for Christmas. It’s our family tradition to put up the Christmas tree and lights on the 1st Saturday of December, and take them down on the 12th day of Christmas.
Our Christmas tree (6 ft. tall) is rooted in a pot in the garden, so come Saturday 5th December my son can help me carry it into the house, and then I can spend the afternoon putting up all the lights.
Apart from a last few items (perishables), my wife has already well stocked up on Christmas food and treats (including the Christmas pudding, drinks and chocolate etc.) because over the past month supermarkets have been giving generous discounts of between 10% & 30% on all sales over £100 ($130); so each week for the past month my wife has been doing a large shop of over £100 (while food is cheap) and storing the surplus food in our food store.
It’s interesting you should mention grocery stores (called Supermarkets in the UK). Prior to the lockdown supermarkets offered a home delivery service, often free delivery if you spent over £50 ($67), which my wife used occasionally. However, when Britain went into lockdown in March the rival Supermarkets clubbed together to pool (share) their resources (staff, food, transport etc.) so as to scale up their capacity for home deliveries. It meant that while you would place your order with one supermarket, some of the food delivered would be from their rivals, and it would often be delivered by someone else.
So since March, so as to not to take the risk from the virus by going out to buy our food, we’ve had all our food ‘home delivered’ weekly.
As regards the Russian vaccine, yes it is their intention to share with the rest of the world; because they see it as a much needed source of income (exports); and at just $10 per dose it is one of the cheapest vaccines; albeit not quite as cheap as the Oxford vaccine which is being sold at cost as a ‘not for profit’ sale (just $4 per dose).
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