Who will control the Senate in 2023?

1. 86

   My Esotericposted 2 years ago

   While the outcome is unknown, the discussion around it should be less confrontational than most political forums.
   
   Currently, the Senate is made of 50 Republican, 48 Democratic, and 2 Independent members.  Of those, 12 Democrats and 20 Republicans are in their final two years of a six year term.  In addition, there are two Democrats, Rev Warnock (D-GA) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) who are finishing off the last two-years from special elections.
   
   Conventional thinking is that with a Democrat as president in his first term, the Republicans have a leg up in these and the House races.  So much has happened in the last 12 months, that that calculus is out the window.
   
   Of the 34 seats up for grabs, pundits say that all but five Republican seats and four Democratic ones are "safe".  The remainder are considered "battleground" states and are: AZ, NV, NH, GA, PA, NC, MO, OH. and WI.  I would argue so is Utah as Mike Lee, a very Trump Republican is being challenged, with Democratic help by Evan McMullin, a never-Trumper Conservative.  I would hope Rand Paul (R-KY) would have a hard time  of it because that nut job has to go, but it doesn't look like it.
   
   By my current count, the Democrats should pick up two seats, PA and WI and not lose any seats.

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   1. 82

      Credence2posted 2 years agoin reply to this

      I read an article speaking of McConnell not having high hopes for a win in the Senate due a "quality deficit" associated with the candidates, most of them Trump ordained.
      
      Do I understand that if we pick up two seats, we do not necessarily need Manchin or the DINO from Arizona to get legislation passed on a simple majority?

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      1. 86

         My Esotericposted 2 years agoin reply to this

         Yes, I read the same article.  And yes, if the Democrats picked up two seats, that would negate the obstacles to voting rights and other civil rights legislation - so long as the Democrats can maintain control of the House as well.  That is a much harder prospect but becoming more doable by the day given who the Republicans are putting forward and the anti-democratic and anti-social positions they hold.
         
         For the first time since Nov 2021, the generic congressional ballot flipped in favor of the Democrats.  Hopefully, the margin will keep growing.

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         1. 61

            Fayetteville Fayeposted 2 years agoin reply to this

            JD Vance looks like he is losing ground in Ohio.  Val Demings is coming on strong in Florida against Rubio also. Some recent polls give her a slight advantage.

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            1. 86

               My Esotericposted 2 years agoin reply to this

               I send Val enough money, she ought to be picking up, lol.

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2. 86

   My Esotericposted 2 years ago

   Where do things stand on Aug 26 - 74 days to go.
   
   AZ - Kelly (D) is up by 8.5
   CO - Bennett (D) is up by 5
   FL - Demmings (D) is up by 4 (but don't hold your breath, Rubio still has the edge)
   GA - Warrock (D) is up by 4.4
   MO - Schmidt (R) is up by 8
   NV - Cortez-Masto (D) is up by 3
   NH - Hassan (D) is up by 4
   NC - Budd (R) is up by 2.8
   OH - Vance (R) is up by 3.7
   PA - Fetterman (D) is up by 7.8 (Flip)
   WA - Murray (D) is up by 19
   WI - Barnes (D) is up by 4 (Flip)
   
   Democrats pick up two seats.  Possible gain of 5 on the high side and zero on the low side.

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   1. 86

      My Esotericposted 2 years agoin reply to this

      Another week has gone by.
      
      Where do things stand on Sep 3: 67 days to go.
      
      AZ - Kelly (D) is up by 6 (Even far-right Trafalgar has Barnes winning)
      CO - Bennett (D) is up by 8 (Even far-right Trafalgar has Barnes winning)
      FL - Demmings (D) is up by 4 (but don't hold your breath, there is only one recent poll. Rubio still has the edge)
      GA - Warrock (D) is up by 1
      MO - Schmidt (R) is up by 11
      NV - Cortez-Masto (D) is up by 1.7
      NH - Hassan (D) is up by 4.0 (Even far-right Trafalgar has Barnes winning)
      NC - Budd (R) is up by 0.7
      OH - Vance (R) is up by 3.7
      PA - Fetterman (D) is up by 6.5 (Flip)  (Even far-right Trafalgar has Barnes winning)
      WA - Murray (D) is up by 15 (Even far-right Trafalgar has Barnes winning)
      WI - Barnes (D) is up by 4.4 (Flip) (Even far-right Trafalgar has Barnes winning)
      
      Democrats pick up two seats.  Possible gain of 5 on the high side and zero on the low side.

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3. 86

   My Esotericposted 2 years ago

   Well, now we know who will win the Senate in 2022 - against all odds, the Democrats (with the help of Terminate-the-Constitution Trump).picked up a seat!  Christmas arrived early.

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